Al-Qaida's Mustafa Abu al-Yazid Blames Blackwater for Peshawar Bombings

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a transcript of a video message from Shaykh Mustafa Abu al-Yazid (a.k.a. “Shaykh Saeed”) titled ““Blackwater and the Peshawar Bombings”. Addressing the recent violence in Pakistan, Al-Yazid stated, “We totally reject these bombings which occur in Muslim marketplaces and amongst residents. This is something that we as well as others from our brother Mujahidoon have clarified on various occasions. We have nothing to do with them. The reasons the Mujahidoon are fighting is to make Islam supreme, to establish Islamic law, and to aid and defend our oppressed Muslim people – not to fight them, and refuge is sought in Allah from this.” Instead, he blamed the U.S. security company, Blackwater: “Everyone today knows how Blackwater and other criminal organizations who freely operate in Pakistan support this corrupt regime of criminals and its security apparatus. They carry out these heinous acts, and then they use their mouthpieces in the media to accuse the Mujahidoon and spoil their image.” In May 2007, Al-Qaida’s official As-Sahab Media Wing identified al-Yazid as “the overall head of al-Qaida Organization in Afghanistan.” According to As-Sahab, al-Yazid “took part in founding al-Qaida in 1989, and is a member of the Shura council of Qaida al-Jihad.”

A complete English transcript of al-Yazid's message can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Conflict & Computer Science

By Aaron Mannes

Conflict has often been a driver for technological advances and computer science has been no exception. The requirements of code breaking during World War II led to the construction of Colossus – the first totally electronic computer device, while the Internet was originally constructed to provide a secure communications network for the military in the event of a nuclear war. While terrorist use of technology, and particularly the Internet, receives tremendous press, the current conflict is also sparking important developments in computer science that will have impacts far beyond the security realm.

My employer, the Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics (LCCD) at the University of Maryland is one group seeking to develop the theory and algorithms required for tools to support decision-making in cultural contexts. LCCD has developed numerous systems including T-Rex, which can rapidly scan text in several languages and convert it into a database and SOMA (Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents) which can extract rules of likely behaviors by organizations from their past behaviors.

LCCD sponsors an annual conference, the International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics (ICCCD2009) – to be held this year on December 7-8 at the University of Maryland. Papers being presented include efforts to model insurgencies as well as piracy in Somalia, a tool used to map the Indonesian blogosphere, and SCARE (Spatial Cultural Abduction Reasoning Engine) which can help predict the locations of weapons caches in an urban environment. (See the full program here.)

Augmenting the Mind
The human brain is an impressive system, which also builds models. In some regards it far exceeds anything on the horizon in the realm of computer science. The ability of human beings to take information and place it in context and draw conclusions from it is profound. We build complex models of how the world works in order to function in it. But computers can process some forms of data far faster than humans and will do so systematically. Human minds cannot quickly process large quantities of data. In attempting to make sense of large amounts of information a human beings may discount or ignore information that does not fit in their model of how the world works – or alternately draw significant conclusions based on a very limited amount of data. Imagine an economist ignoring issues of ethnic identity in analyzing a nation’s policies or a political philosopher focusing on ideology while ignoring logistics in studying a terrorist group’s behavior. In short, computer systems are capable of substantially augmenting the power of human reason.

Things to Come
The impacts of these technologies will be profound. Real-time data collection and processing will potentially improve decision-making in many ways.

Read the complete post here.

NEFA Foundation: Interview with Spokesman for Pakistani Al-Qaida

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a transcript of an interview, produced by the As-Sahab Media Foundation, with Dr. Ahmad Farooq, Senior Media Official, Al-Qaida in Pakistan. During the interview, Dr. Farooq was asked "how Pakistani individuals" had become a part of Al-Qaida, which "is commonly known as an Arab organization.” He explained, "“The claim can be true to the extent that a great majority of the Mujahideen – many of whom have been martyred to this day - who laid its foundation and joined it at the start, was that of the Arab brothers; and even today, a large part of Al-Qaeda comprises of the Arab Mujahideen. But this neither is an introduction to Al-Qaeda, nor any condition to become part of it... We see that Al-Qaida is active on diverse fronts including Algeria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It embraces Muslims of different nationalities; not only the locals of the areas it holds presence in, but also those belonging to America, different European states, Australasia, the Philippines, Indonesia and numerous other Muslim countries. People from all backgrounds come and join it. Pakistanis are part of it too and this is nothing improbable.”

Dr. Farooq also waved off the frequent criticism that "the Muslims provoked the Kuffar into fighting at a stage when they were not fully prepared to resist them" and that the 9/11 attacks were "premature" because they provoked an American military invasion "which is said to have caused the fall of the Islamic Emirate." He insisted, "9/11 did not worsen the situation; rather, the state of affairs was altered for once, and the Kuffâr were forced to pay back for the horrors they had been inflicting upon the Muslims... The other thing is that there was no other way to fell a monster like America except that it approached Muslim land itself. Stationed far afield, it was controlling us as though with a remote-control: through our marionette rulers. It is by the Grace of Allah that it has come within our reach... Allah blessed the blood of those nineteen martyrs with great inspiration... And the sequence did not discontinue here…it marked the beginning of a chain reaction. Then came 7/7, the Madrid blasts and the succession carried on. By the Grace of Allah, it is still in progression and shall continue in future, Allah willing."

One further note -- Dr. Farooq also emphasized the propaganda value that Al-Qaida gains from hot-button issues like Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay. He referred to the existence of Gitmo as "another great benefit these attacks brought... America had hidden its charlatanic face with an innocent mask…and many amongst the Muslim Ummah considered it to be different than Russia…to be ‘civilized’. Allah set straight the truth. Whatever happened in Guantanamo…the horrors of Abu Ghraib; this was how Allah revealed the hideous, Crusader and secular face of America in front of the world. This is none but a blessing of the Jihad…the blessing of the Tuesday attacks.”

A complete English transcript of Dr. Ahmad Farooq's remarks can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

CTR Vantage: The Shooting of Luqman Abdullah

By Madeleine Gruen

An October 2009 shootout at a warehouse in Dearborn, Michigan, claimed the life Luqman Abdullah, the imam of Detroit’s Masjid al-Haqq, and in the process garnered national attention. Abdullah had been a Detroit representative to al-Ummah, which the Muslim Alliance in North America (MANA) describes as “an association of mosques in several cities in the U.S. that coordinates religious and social services primarily in the Black American community.” In contrast, a criminal complaint filed by an FBI special agent describes al-Ummah as “a nationwide radical fundamentalist Sunni group consisting primarily of African-Americans.

The shootout occurred during an FBI raid designed to disrupt a variety of illegal activities being carried out by Abdullah and at least ten of his associates—activities that were uncovered by an undercover investigation stretching back for about three years, and a series of transactions pursuant to a Group I Undercover Operation. According to local news reports, the shooting came after FBI agents and police from the Joint Terrorism Task Force “surrounded a warehouse and trucking firm on Miller Road near Michigan Avenue where Abdullah and four of his followers were hiding.”

Abdullah did not surrender when ordered to; instead, he opened fire. He was shot to death, as was an FBI K-9, a three-year-old Belgian Malinois named Freddy. Although press reports do not detail how the dog was shot, it is common practice for the FBI to introduce a K-9 to “locate and detain” a suspect who refuses to surrender. The four men with Abdullah did lay down their arms and allow themselves to be arrested, although the DOJ’s press release leaves some ambiguity as to whether they did so before or after Abdullah was killed.

The FBI has arrested ten of Abdullah’s associates, most of whom were members of his mosque and the al-Ummah movement. Three of them—Yassir Ali Khan, Mohammad Philistine, and Abdullah’s son Mujahid Carswell—were arrested in Windsor, Ontario, to which they fled following the raids. Windsor is located directly across from Detroit, over the U.S.-Canada border.

The arrested men face charges that include conspiracy to receive and sell goods that the defendants believed were stolen from interstate shipments, conspiracy to commit mail fraud through an insurance scam involving arson, providing firearms to a known convicted felon, and tampering with motor vehicle identification numbers to further the theft of a vehicle.

The Al-Ummah Movement

Al-Ummah is either a splinter from, or a cover for, the Darul Islam movement. One commonality between the two movements is the leadership of Jamil al-Amin, who was formerly known as 1960s firebrand H. Rap Brown. Though al-Amin is reportedly still considered al-Ummah’s leader by the group’s members, he has not been involved in day-to-day operations for some time: he is currently serving a life sentence at the Supermax prison in Florence, Colorado, following his 2002 conviction for shooting two police officers in Georgia.

In May 2009 in Alabama, Luqman Abdullah claimed while under surveillance that al-Amin had created al-Ummah out of fear of government interference. Two years before Abdullah became part of the movement, several Darul members were killed in a shooting in New York. “Jamil Al-Amin said they had to divide the group because having too many people in one organization made them an easy target,” the criminal complaint against Abdullah recounts. “According to Abdullah, the group is still Dar-Ul, but this is not widely known because of the United States government. The Ummah is a cover name for Dar-Ul.”

The full article, co-written by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, can be read at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies web site. This is an excerpt from the upcoming issue of CTR Vantage, titled "The Luqman Abdullah Shooting and Cause Célèbre Islam."

Radical U.S. Muslim Group Defames Moderate, Defends Fort Hood Attack

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

A New York-based Muslim extremist group known for its unabashed support for violence against Jews and others posted a link on its website Tuesday branding American Islamic Forum for Democracy (AIFD) Executive Director, M. Zuhdi Jasser, a "murtad," or apostate. Being labeled an apostate – a Muslim who renounces Islam – is a very serious accusation, often resulting in a death sentence in many places throughout the Muslim world. And while this is not a certainty in all cases and contexts, it is troubling that Revolution Muslim (RM) thought it acceptable to bestow upon themselves the license to label a pious Muslim as such.

And it's not the first time the group has slurred Jasser this way.

RM's latest attack against Jasser came in reaction to a video, originally posted by AIFD, showing him and U.S. Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN) engaged in a Capitol Hill forum about Islam's internal struggle against radicalism. Rather than assessing the complete debate, RM elected to post just one segment (of nine) where, it says Ellison "gives the Murtad Zubi [sic.] Jasser a schooling." We at IPT News must have heard something completely different when we attended and reported on the forum last month.

Jasser, a Navy veteran, is a devout Muslim who challenges radical Islamists and advocates a separation between religion and political ideas such as the spread of Shariah law.

RM's radical reaction is hardly surprising considering the group's record. As noted in an October 2009 Anti-Defamation League (ADL) "backgrounder" on RM, the group has, on numerous occasions, promoted attacks against Jews, Hindus, Americans, and other non-Muslims. In one recent case, "RM posted to its Web site a poem asking God to 'kill the Jews' and listing ways Jews could be hurt, including by burning 'their flammable sukkos while they sleep' and throwing 'liquid drain cleaner in their faces.'" Fox News reports that the post was removed and replaced with a more innocuous article soon after it caught the eye of the NYPD.

Similarly, just last week, RM posted a video on YouTube in which group member Abdullah As-Sayf Jones rants on the streets of New York City to passersby about the justification for Major Nidal Hasan's wanton act of violence at Fort Hood. In an effort to show Hasan's act had the moral upper-hand as compared to U.S. military actions overseas, Jones says:

"This did not take place at a hospital. This was not a civilian target. Not a school, not a hotel, nothing else. This took place at a military base….compared to American military tactics, in which they drive drones over the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, indiscriminately killing Pakistanis. A U.S. drone does not tell the difference [between legitimate targets and civilians]…but yet, here it is, the so-called terrorist making sure specifically to target military targets."

In the aftermath of the Fort Hood shooting, RM also posted a link to another controversial video – this one put out by a group called AIM Films – in which a man identified as Bilal Abdul-Kareem defends Hasan's killing spree as an act against an enemy in a state of war, rather than a criminal or terrorist act.

RM's mission, as stated on its website, includes uniting the "Muslim world…under the banner of Islam." In pursuing this mission, RM regularly pushes the limits of 1st Amendment freedom of speech protections in showing support for violence. This strategy is very similar to yet another New York-based group, with whom RM shares membership and often cooperates: the Islamic Thinkers Society (ITS). ITS, "an offshoot of a British group by the name Al Muhajiroun…that supports violence in order to create a global Islamic state," according to the ADL report, has openly shown support for Al Qaeda and has spewed hate against the FBI, CIA, and others.

A Yardstick to How Radical Anwar Al-Awlaki is: Former Bin Laden Mentor Condemns Ft. Hood Massacre as "Irrational" and "Unjustified"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a statement by Saudi cleric Salman Al-Awdah condemning the Fort Hood shooting. Al-Awdah, who Usama bin Laden described as his "ideal personality" in a March 1997 interview, asserted that "this action taken out by Nidal Hasan was irrational and is empty of thought." According al-Awdah, "this incident has a very negative influence in the West because they [Westerners] see that a man from within the [American] environment and society, and had reached the highest levels [in his career]; despite that, he carried out this attack, so what about the thousands of Muslims who are in the depth of the official establishment, which pushed them to question: are Muslims a Fifth Column? ...Incidents such as these have bad consequences, and undoubtedly this man might have a psychological problem... he was capable of refusing to work whatever the consequences were.” For more, see the NEFA Foundation website.

I was interviewed by Wired's "Danger Room" blog about al-Awdah's chilly response to Anwar al-Awlaki's endorsement of Maj. Hasan.

"Kohlman[n] said that the contrast between Awlaki’s and Awdah’s statements reveals a gap between al-Awdah’s generation of Salafi jihadists, many of whom have mellowed in recent years, and the post-Iraq generation of jihadists. 'The naive younger guys have been raised and fed on bright-eyed propaganda about the ‘Shaykh of the Slaughters’ Zarqawi, beheadings, and suicide bombings. On the other hand, many of the older celebrated advocates of jihad and the mujahideen are increasingly opposed to the fanatical takfiri direction of Al-Qaida — casting it as counterproductive and even criminal…And, of course, these critical issues of jihadi jurisprudence are now being debated and contested largely over the Internet.'"

When a Warrant Isn't Warranted

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

What rights, if any, should alleged terrorist financiers be afforded? This question has plagued federal judges since the Treasury Department first began targeting those believed to be providing financial support to terrorist organizations over a decade ago. One recurring issue has been whether the Treasury Department must seek a warrant prior to freezing the assets of those suspected of terrorist financing. Two recent, high profile cases – Kindhearts v. Geithner (N.D. Ohio) and al Haramain v. United States Department of the Treasury (D. Or.) – have set the stage for a possible showdown at the Supreme Court, where this question can hopefully be resolved.

Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), one of the lead agencies in the fight against terrorist financing, froze the assets of both al Haramain and Kindhearts in 2004 and 2006 respectively. In both cases, the defendant charities were accused of providing financial support to terrorist groups. Al Haramain allegedly funneled money to Chechen rebels and Kindhearts was accused of funding Hamas.

Neither of the asset seizures was conducted with prior judicial warrants, and consequently, defendants challenged the Treasury actions as a violation of the Fourth Amendment's proscription against warrantless seizures. Although both federal courts agreed with the defendants that the freezing of assets was a "seizure" for Fourth Amendment purposes, they diverged when determining whether an exception to the warrant requirement may apply to seizures of terrorist finances.

The government argued that asset seizures in counter-terrorist financing investigations are exempted from the warrant requirement. Relying upon the "special needs exception," the government explained that no warrant is needed where: (i) the primary purpose of the seizure is beyond criminal law enforcement; and (ii) a warrant and probable cause are impracticable. Applying these factors, the al Haramain court upheld the search on the grounds that a warrant was unnecessary, whereas the Kindhearts court found the exception inapplicable, and invalidated the seizure.

Read more at: http://www.investigativeproject.org/1517/when-a-warrant-isnt-warranted

Syria Undermining UNSCR 1701 Slows Rapprochement with Washington

By David Schenker

During its first year in office, the Obama Administration has invested heavily in improving relations with Syria. Not only have several senior American political and military officials travelled to Damascus for talks, the Administration has also engaged locally in discussions with Syrian Ambassador to Washington Imad Moustapha.

To date, little has been achieved. Indeed, Syrian President Bashar Asad lamented to SANA on November 1, 2009: “What has happened so far is a new approach. Dialogue has replaced commands, which is good, but things stopped there…It is hard to say that big steps have been taken in bilateral relations [with Washington].” Assad echoed these sentiments in an interview just a few days ago in Le Figaro
  
It’s not surprising US-Syrian relations have not improved. On a broad range of fronts, there has been little or no positive change in Syrian behavior. As recently as September 15, 2009, US commander in Iraq General Ray Odierno noted: "Syria continues to allow the facilitation of foreign fighters through Syria that both come into Iraq as well as, I believe, into Afghanistan.”

Read More »

ForeignPolicy.com: A Web of Lone Wolves (Ft. Hood)

By Evan Kohlmann

The editors at the magazine Foreign Policy kindly invited me to contribute commentary on the fallout from the massacre at Ft. Hood and revelations about the online terror ties of Maj. Malik Nidal Hasan:

Upon learning of the reported "missed" link between the alleged culprit responsible for the massacre at Ft. Hood -- Maj. Malik Nidal Hasan -- and Anwar al Awlaki, my heart sank for a multitude of reasons. Al Awlaki is an infamous character in the halls of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and he has been for several years at least. The cleric's recurring presence again in the Ft. Hood case seems to be powerful and disturbing evidence of how fringe extremists -- who otherwise might remain in obscurity with no real means of living out their private jihadi fantasies -- are quite literally being equipped for battle by so-called "theological" advisors known only to them through the Internet. In short, it is a reminder of how real online terrorism networks have become...

The entire piece can be viewed on ForeignPolicy.com.

Disrupting Iran's Weapons Smuggling

By Matthew Levitt

Even as the West seeks to engage Iran in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, Iran continues to arm rogue regimes and terrorist groups in blatant violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1747. Such aggressive behavior on the part of Iran in support of terrorist groups and rogue regimes highlights a critical shortcoming of current international sanctions on Iran. In the latest case, last week, the Israeli Navy intercepted the Francop, a vessel carrying five hundred tons of weapons, including thousands of mortar shells and long range rockets believed to be bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli officials released photographs of Katyusha rockets seized last week by UNIFIL forces in Lebanon that are the same make as those seized on board the Francop. According to U.S. officials, the arms shipment was "clearly manifested from Iran to Syria" in violation of a March 2007 UN arms embargo and provides "unambiguous evidence of the destabilizing proliferation of arms in the region."

It is high time to back up the tough talk with action. The good news is that there are ways to effectively disrupt Iran's international weapons smuggling. The question is whether the Francop episode will provide the political impetus for the international community to take action. Previous cases of Iranian arms smuggling prompted no such action.

The full article, written for Middle East Strategy at Harvard (MESH), is available here.

Bureaucracy, Culture & Ft. Hood Attacks

By Aaron Mannes

Bureaucracy, Culture & Ft. Hood Attacks

The Fort Hood attack was an intelligence failure, just like 9/11 and so many others before. In retrospect, it all seems obvious – these kinds of failures always do. It is easy to blame bureaucratic inertia, but it is also unfair. Large organizations need procedures to function. Priorities must be set and decisions have to be made and implemented.

Examining the system failure is revealing, both about the challenges in preventing these kinds of tragedies but also in how they reveal some of our society’s core values.

Army: Major Problems
It is now clear that Major Hasan’s colleagues were concerned about his actions and behavior. But there were limits to what they could do about. Firing an Army Major is a very big deal. It is now clear that Hasan’s colleagues had doubts about his commitment to the military and about his work habits. But, informally, they judged that he was not dangerous. Consider the situation from their point of view. First, Hasan was a psychiatrist – it is understandable that Hasan’s colleagues would assume that an individual practicing a profession rooted caring, healing, and empathy would not be likely to become a murderer (Hannibal Lector is a fictional character.) But also consider the bureaucratic challenges. Hasan’s relatives reported that when Hasan made informal inquiries about leaving the Army:

They told him that he would be allowed out only if Rumsfeld himself O.K.’d it.

.This may be a slight exaggeration, but removing Hasan would certainly have required authorization from people several levels higher in the chain of command – and the bases for doing so were not evident. What was clear was that Hasan was odd and said disturbing things and that he did not appear devoted to the job and the Army. Virtually every bureaucracy ends up with at least a few such characters. Usually they are slowly eased out. To fire them, without clear evidence of criminal activity, is much harder. It would have taken enormous amounts of time and since Hassan was a Major, General officers would need to have been involved. There were obvious incentives for easing Hasan out, rather than attempting to dismiss him.

No doubt, Hasan’s colleagues are no wishing that they had pursued this process nonetheless and in the future officers faced with comparable situations undoubtedly will do whatever is necessary to remove individuals.

Read the complete post here.

The Afghanistan Conundrum: What to do When Both Sides Are Right?

By Douglas Farah

The U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl W. Ikenberry has reportedly raised serious concerns about sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan because of the unreliability of the Karzai government.

Others in the Pentagon and Obama administration feel strongly that nothing can be won on the ground until there are enough troops to do the job properly, if the mission is defined as remaking Afghanistan. They also argue (rightly, I believe) that if Afghanistan were again controlled by the Taliban, al Qaeda would have a safe haven of operation that we would rue, and a public relations and psychological victory that would help revive their cause.

The problem is that both sides are right. I am not an Afghanistan expert, but I have spent years in war zones where the government is viewed as corrupt and illegitimate (including the drug wars in Colombia, and the 1980s conflicts in El Salvador, Nicaragua and then, West Africa). Without state legitimacy there is no way one can create conditions on the ground for that government to take ownership of any sort of popularly supported programs.

The Karzai government, with its top-down corruption, disdain for action and embrace of massive fraud in an electoral process, appear to embody the worst of all the elements that drive people to take up guns in the first place.

Yet without the necessary resources, the war is lost and the most brutal option available -- hardliners who feel they have achieved the right to govern through military victory -- takes root. The Taliban in their earlier incarnation showed this. Either outcome leaves the U.S. vital interests damaged and the Afghanistan people thrown to the predatory wolves of either side.

The only real option (and it seems to be something Obama personally is asking about and thinking about) is to bypass the central government. My full blog is here.

NEFA: Ft. Hood Cleric Awlaki Urged Muslims to "Fight Against Government Armies" in July '09

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a copy of an English-language online blog post from just this past summer by Shaykh Anwar al-Awlaki -- the Yemeni cleric suspected of influencing Ft. Hood shooter Maj. Malik Hasan -- titled, "Fighting Against Government Armies in the Muslim World."

In his message, dated July 14, 2009, al-Awlaki openly admonished his supporters, "there can be no Islam with the presence of these armies... These armies are the defenders of apostasy in the Muslim world. They fight against Sharia and kill the Muslims who attempt to bring it back. They are fighting on behalf of America against the mujahideen in Pakistan, Somalia and the Maghrib. If this is the case with these armies how could anyone place the blame on the ones who fight them, accusing them of fighting against Muslims?! What kind of twisted fiqh is this? The blame should be placed on the soldier who is willing to follow orders whether the order is to kill Muslims as in Swat, bomb Masjids as with the Red Masjid, or kill women and children as they do in Somalia... Blessed are those who fight against them and blessed are those shuhada [martyrs] who are killed by them."

A complete copy of Anwar al-Awlaki's manifesto urging Muslims to "fight against government armies" can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Afghan Taliban Celebrate Massacre at Ft. Hood

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communique from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) in response to the massacre at Ft. Hood, Texas that killed 13 people. In a statement titled, "The Attack In Texas Is A Proof On The Disagreement Among American Soldiers Over The War", the Taliban celebrated the "fight and trance and enormous fears within the military and civil circles in America" caused by the incident. The Taliban noted, "the hero of the attack is the Muslim psychiatrist in the rank of Major in the American Army, from Palestinian origin... Some of the Western organizations and media sources say—regarding the factors that made the American soldier Nidal Hasan carry this attack—it might be caused by psychological illness and stress, which spread amongst the soldiers in the battlefields in Afghanistan and Iraq... But, other specialists, next to these factors, diagnosed another special factor; that the oppression and the monstrosity and prisoner torture and air raids and general killing, carried out by the American army in Iraq and Afghanistan, have led to a situation of widespread dissonance and exhaustion between the American soldiers, and the American military bases. Maybe this incident was a reaction to these injustices, and disowning them." The Taliban statement further warned that if the U.S. fails to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan "it will become normal for incidents and attacks similar to Texas’ to expand to the Pentagon and the rest of the American military bases, and it is inevitable that those with a spark of self-awareness to react with fundamentalist rebellion."

A complete English translation of the Taliban statement can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA: Backgrounder on Anwar al Awlaki

By Madeleine Gruen

This backgrounder on Anwar al Awlaki, written in February of this year, is now posted here for the first time.

U.S. government agencies are increasingly concerned about the ability of pro-Jihad ideologues to use the Internet to incite U.S.-based Muslims to conduct terrorist attacks. Indeed, there have been several terrorism cases in the years since 9/11 in which actors based in Western countries were influenced by lectures, writings, and videos downloaded from the Internet.

Anwar al Awlaki (a.k.a. Anwar al Aulaqi), an American who lives in Yemen, who is regarded as an Islamic scholar, may be a key player in Al-Qaida’s efforts to radicalize and incite American Muslims to commit terrorist acts.

A U.S. citizen, al Awlaki was born in New Mexico in 1971. After his father completed his college studies, the family returned to Yemen, where al Awlaki remained until 1991, then he came back to the U.S. to study for a B.S. in Civil Engineering at Colorado State University. He then went on to San Diego State University for a Master’s in Education Leadership. While in San Diego, he served as an imam at Rabat mosque. In 2001, he enrolled in a Ph.D. program in Human Resource Development at George Washington University, where he worked as the Muslim chaplain. At that time, he was also an imam at Dar Al Hijrah Islamic Center in Falls Church, VA. He left the U.S. in 2002 and lived in London,where he also gained a following. He moved to Yemen in 2004.

The rest of the report can be viewed here.

Transcript: The Post-Baitullah Pakistani Taliban Leadership Greets the World

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a videotaped press conference featuring Waliur Rehman, Emir of Mehsud Taliban in South Waziristan Agency, and Hakimullah Mehsud, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader. The statements appear to be aimed at legitimizing Rehman as the new leader of the South Waziristan chapter of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and possibly one of the most important powerbrokers within the Mehsud-led TTP. The video recording itself was produced and released by Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation.

Of particular note to CT Blog readers -- Hakimullah Mehsud repeatedly drew attention to the cause of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, who is currently awaiting trial on federal charges in the Southern District of New York. Acccording to Hakimullah, "The Jihad becomes an individual duty in several cases, and there is a Fatwa, agreed by the scholars that if a single meter of the lands of the Muslims is conquered, the Jihad becomes an individual duty. So what would we say, when today we do not speak about one meter, but about the entire Islamic world that has come to be at the grip of the enemies of Islam – Afghanistan, Kashmir, Iraq, Palestine, Chechnya! The Muslims from big to small, men and women, are prisoners of the infidels – much like Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, who is our sister in Islam, is in prison in the USA, bound with chains... We are not enemies of Pakistan or the people of Pakistan; this is an unjust and oppressing regime, and an illegitimate and infidel regime. It is the same regime that has sold Dr. Aafia Siddiqui to the Americans for a handful of dollars."

The complete transcript can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Who Is the Imam Consulted by the Ft. Hood Assassin?

By Douglas Farah

Sue Schmidt of the International Assessment and Strategy Center has just published an extensive piece on the background of Anwar al-Aulaqui (AKA Anwar Al-Awlaki), the imam who have helped radicalize Maj. Malik Nidal Hasan. it is a sobering reminder of how the radicalization process works, particularly if one looks at that background and the posting of my colleague Evan Kholmann to get a sense of what he actually said.

Video: American Al-Qaida Spokesman Urged "Shooting Spree" at U.S. Military Base in 2006

By Evan Kohlmann

In light of the Nov. 5 mass shooting incident at Ft. Hood, Texas, the NEFA Foundation has released an excerpt from a July 2006 propaganda video produced by Al-Qaida's As-Sahab Media Foundation to mark the first anniversary of the 7/7 suicide bombing attacks in London. Among other things, the video featured a recorded message from American Al-Qaida spokesman and California-native Adam Gadahn, who explicitly encouraged those with burning grievances against U.S. military actions in Iraq "to go on a shooting spree at the Marines' housing facilities at Camp Pendleton."

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.

Venezuela Ramps Up Border Security and Presses on With Iran

By Douglas Farah

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is militarizing his border and urging his people to prepare for war, while at the same time lavishing billions of dollars to an essentially parallel government in Nicaragua and announcing yet another summit with Iran's Ahmadinejad.

None of these are good signs, given his creation of militia units that are responsible to solely to him while at the same time moving aggressively, as the International Crisis Group notes, to further shrink the democratic spaces in Venezuela in the face of growing unpopularity and discontent.

At the same time the support for the FARC and ELN (both designated terrorist organizations) is unabated and drug trafficking is booming.

According to the ICG, the Chávez government has progressively abandoned core liberal democracy principles guaranteed under the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the American Convention on Human Rights. The executive has increased its power and provoked unrest internally by further politicising the armed forces and the oil sector, as well as exercising mounting influence over the electoral authorities, the legislative organs, the judiciary and other state entities. At the same time, Chávez’s attempts to play a political role in other states in the region are producing discomfort abroad.

My full blog is here.

Hamas's Ideological Crisis

By Matthew Levitt

Despite its success as the first Muslim Brotherhood organization to control and govern territory, and in part because of that success, Hamas today is under significant stress. In the West Bank, Hamas faces a severe security crackdown that has driven the movement underground. And in Gaza, Hamas has been forced to choose between engaging in acts of violence or attempting to effectively govern the territory it took over by force of arms. The result is an acute ideological tension within Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, which has been forced to suspend the resistance for which it is named and by which it defines itself. For some, the cessation of violence, however temporary, is a sign of moderation within Hamas. For others, Hamas's actions, including continued radicalization and weapons smuggling into Gaza, better denote the movement's true intentions and trajectory. To be sure, Hamas is not a monolithic movement. But the one constant among its various currents is its self-identification as a resistance movement.

Hamas under Stress: In the West Bank the ongoing Israeli military presence together with a renewed commitment by the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas has largely denied Hamas the ability to function effectively there. With new, U.S.-trained Palestinian battalions successfully bringing law and order to West Bank cities, places like Jenin -- commonly referred to as the suicide bomber capitol of the West Bank just a few years ago -- are now calm and enjoying significant improvement in economic prosperity. Within the Ministry of Interior, a department overseeing charitable organizations is systematically removing Hamas members from the boards of charity committees and social service organizations; it is also registering each charity office and its board -- something that was not done under the administrations of either Yasser Arafat or the short-lived Hamas-Fatah unity government in 2006. Still, Israeli and Palestinian security officials concur that Hamas remains present and capable in the West Bank, operating largely underground in small cells, and would quickly rebuild itself were it not for the day-to-day security and intelligence activities of both Israeli and PA forces.

For Hamas, however, the true crisis is not in the West Bank but in Gaza. Whereas Hamas is suppressed in the West Bank, it is in the Gaza Strip -- where it is the de facto governing regime -- where Hamas is under significant ideological stress. Ironically, the crisis is of its own making, the result of the uneasy merger of Hamas, a social, political and military "resistance" movement, with an Islamist government. As a government, Hamas has failed to provide for the needs of its purported constituents and remains an international pariah under economic siege. At the same time, its credentials as a "resistance" movement lose currency by the day as Hamas continues to refrain from attacking Israel for fear of reprisal attacks in the wake of Israel's Cast Lead operation in December 2008 and January 2009.

The full article, featured in the upcoming volume of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, is available here.

Investigating Ft. Hood: Anwar al-Awlaki's "Constants on the Path of Jihad"

By Evan Kohlmann

One of the key questions for investigators who are now looking into potential links between radical Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki and the accused perpetrator of the massacre at Ft. Hood, Maj. Malik Nidal Hasan, is understanding to what degree al-Awlaki's extreme sermons may have influenced Hasan's actions. Toward that end, they should be keeping an especially close eye out for one such al-Awlaki sermon in particular--"Constants on the Path of Jihad"--which itself is based upon an Arabic-language text penned by the founder of Al-Qaida's network in Saudi Arabia, Yousef al-Ayyiri. In order to bring al-Ayyiri's words to an English-speaking audience, al-Awlaki dedicated a lengthy lecture to his work--a lecture that over time has become the "virtual bible" for lone wolf Muslim extremists. In "Constants", al-Awlaki argues:

“Jihad does not end with the disappearance of a person. Jihad must continue regardless because it does not depend on any particular leader or individual… Jihad does not depend on any particular land. It is global. When the Muslim is in his land, he performs jihad… No borders or barriers stop it. The message cannot be conveyed without jihad. If a particular people or nation is classified as… ‘the people of war’ in the Shariah, that classification applies to them all over the earth. Islam cannot be customized to suit the conditions where you are, for instance Europe.”

According to Awlaki, al-Ayyiri also instructed that “victory” cannot be limited to mere “military victories” alone, and should also include “sacrifice. The Mujahid sacrificing ‘his self’ and his wealth is victory. Victory of your idea, your religion. If you die for your religion, your death will spread the da`wa… Allah chooses Shuhada (martyrs) from amongst the believers. This is a victory.”

It is thus perhaps little surprise that Anwar al-Awlaki's name and his sermon on "Constants on the Path of Jihad" seem to surface in every single homegrown terrorism investigation, whether in the U.S., the U.K., Canada, or beyond. For a sense of what role Awlaki and his message play in these cases, take for instance the New Jersey-based conspirators behind the attempted terror plot at Ft. Dix. The following is an excerpt from my expert report submitted on behalf of prosecutors in that case (available on the NEFA Foundation website):

"I have been provided with the preserved digital contents of a computer marked as “Dell Desktop from Duka” by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey which contain records of a user (or users) downloading and listening to Shaykh Anwar al-Awlaki’s English-language audio sermon teaching the lessons of Yousef al-Ayyiri’s “Constants on the Path of Jihad.” Stored under a “My Documents\My Received Files” folder by a registered user named “Elvis”, the “Dell Desktop from Duka” also contains a physical copy of the same audio sermon by al-Awlaki explaining “Constants on the Path of Jihad.” On March 9, 2007, Dritan Duka and Shain Duka were recorded discussing the importance of “Constants on the Path of Jihad” with other alleged conspirators and a cooperating witness. Shain Duka commented, “...as I was saying Serd… about Anwar al Awlaki… You gotta hear this lecture… you gotta hear it… The title? The title is Constance of [UI].” Dritan Duka echoed, “You gotta hear this lecture, this brother [UI] him locked up in Yemen, Anwar al Awlaki the Imam in Washington DC, they kicked him out of the US and now they locked him up in Yemen. He was talking about Jihad [holy struggle] the truth, no holes barred, straight how it is!” Later, during the same conversation, the group of men listen to an actual copy of Anwar al-Awlaki’s sermon on “Constants on the Path of Jihad.” While the audio recording plays in the background, Shain Duka insists to them, “You gotta listen to this [UI]… He has a whole volume of this lecture.” Dritan Duka added, “You can’t buy it nowhere… He’s in jail, they arrest him, he’s on house arrest… For stuff like this, in Yemen.” Shain Duka concurred with Dritan’s assessment: “You can’t find it… In his own country they locked him up for speaking like this… That’s a good lecture, huh brother? … There’s no lies with this guy.” One of the other men listening—Gregori Ilichenko—praised al-Awlaki and his interpretation of “Constants on the Path of Jihad”, responding, “Mad good son.” Separately, in early 2007, the subject of “Constants on the Path of Jihad” came again several times during recorded conversations involving Eljvir Duka. In February 2007, Duka repeatedly instructed an unidentified male to download a copy of Anwar al-Awlaki’s English language lecture: “I would like you to go on the JusOne news to this website and I can give you my password, it’s a it’s a lecture by Imam Anwar [ph] [UI]… It’s called the Constants of Jihad, the Constants of Jihad and this, ever since I heard this lecture brother I want everyone to hear about it. You know why, because he gives it to you raw and uncut… this is the truth I don’t give a damn what everybody says this is Islam, this is the truth right here. So he doesn’t sugar coat, he doesn’t have any boundaries to the truth in this, and it’s very why- why am I stressing this point, because we’re living in a time people were confused Muslims themselves they’re confused… About our own brothers, you understand? So this lecture is very necessary for people today, if you’re concerned… [It is] verbal, audio, you have to download it... let me know what you think of it when you hear it… One of the best lectures I ever heard ever.” On April 12, 2007, Eljvir Duka was recorded during a telephone conversation he initiated with an unknown male. Duka asked, “Look, what time you open till? …I wanted to know... do, do you have, ah, ‘The Constants-,’ ‘The Constants of Jihad’ by Anwar al Awlaki? … It’s six, yeah, six CD’s I believe… Is there anyway you can order it for me? …in Arabic I think it’s ‘Sowhabist [PH] al la dar [PH] al Jihad.’ …So, um, ‘Constants of Jihad’ in English… by Anwar al Awlaki.”

Breaking: Extremist Cleric Anwar al-Awlaki Endorses Ft. Hood Massacre: "Nidal Hassan Did the Right Thing"

By Evan Kohlmann

Extremist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki has just issued a new entry on his blog titled, "Nidal Hassan Did the Right Thing." Excerpts from the entry are reproduced in part below:

"Nidal Hassan is a hero. He is a man of conscience who could not bear living the contradiction of being a Muslim and serving in an army that is fighting against his own people. This is a contradiction that many Muslims brush aside and just pretend that it doesn’t exist. Any decent Muslim cannot live, understanding properly his duties towards his Creator and his fellow Muslims, and yet serve as a US soldier. The US is leading the war against terrorism which in reality is a war against Islam. Its army is directly invading two Muslim countries and indirectly occupying the rest through its stooges. Nidal opened fire on soldiers who were on their way to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. How can there be any dispute about the virtue of what he has done? In fact the only way a Muslim could Islamically justify serving as a soldier in the US army is if his intention is to follow the footsteps of men like Nidal. The heroic act of brother Nidal also shows the dilemma of the Muslim American community. Increasingly they are being cornered into taking stances that would either make them betray Islam or betray their nation. Many amongst them are choosing the former. The Muslim organizations in America came out in a pitiful chorus condemning Nidal’s operation. The fact that fighting against the US army is an Islamic duty today cannot be disputed. No scholar with a grain of Islamic knowledge can defy the clear cut proofs that Muslims today have the right -rather the duty- to fight against American tyranny. Nidal has killed soldiers who were about to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan in order to kill Muslims. The American Muslims who condemned his actions have committed treason against the Muslim Ummah and have fallen into hypocrisy... The inconsistency of being a Muslim today and living in America and the West in general reveals the wisdom behind the opinions that call for migration from the West. It is becoming more and more difficult to hold on to Islam in an environment that is becoming more hostile towards Muslims. May Allah grant our brother Nidal patience, perseverance and steadfastness and we ask Allah to accept from him his great heroic act. Ameen."

The full document is available from the NEFA Foundation website.

Followers of Anwar al-Awlaki Giddily Celebrate Ft. Hood Massacre

By Evan Kohlmann

Supporters of radical Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki--whose name has surfaced in connection with the investigation of Major Malik Nidal Hasan--are now championing Hasan's murder of thirteen U.S. military personnel last week at Ft. Hood in Texas. Upon learning of initial media reports of the Ft. Hood massacre, one frequent visitor posted a comment on al-Awlaki's blog, "Oh Allah, direct your forces against America, the centre of kufr and fasad. Oh Allah, direct your forces against America, the centre of kufr and fasad. Oh Allah, direct your forces against America, the centre of kufr and fasad... Mash’Allah another good news reaching us from Texas: more Kafir US soldiers in the Filthy U.S. Army base in Fort Hood, were smoked by the their own today:"

Reflecting on Maj. Hasan's actions at Ft. Hood, a second user added, "The American soldiers fight/ kill innocent Muslims in Iraq/ Afghanistan/ Somalia etc. We should support the Muslims that resist these attackers of our religion... May Allah (swt) support the Mujahideen all over the world and punish the hypocrites in the Dounya and Aghiraa. The only question that a Muslim can ask is; Why would a fellow muslim condem an attack on the American forcers? Why not do doea[sic] for the muslim soldier that risked his live to kill 13 American soldiers (who may have fought and killed innocent Muslims in Iraq/ Afghanistan)."

Transnational Terror: Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Chicago Plot

By Animesh Roul

Three names have been doing the rounds in India these days: Maulana Ilyas Kashmiri, David Coleman Headley (a.k.a Dauod Geelani) and Tahawur Hussein Rana; one hard core veteran Jehadi and two motivated ‘would be’ terrorists. They are in the news for plotting major assaults in India. Among them, Ilyas Kashmiri who was rumored to be dead early this year, in fact survived three drone attacks in Pakistan’s Waziristan region, belongs to the Al Qaeda- Harkat-Ul- Jihad- Al-Islami (HuJI) lineage and heads Al Qaeda’s deadly 311 brigade. He still carries a head money of US $ 600,000 dollars. His name resurfaced when a report was published in the Asia Times last month. The semi-biographical report titled, “Al-Qaeda's guerrilla chief lays out strategy” was written by Syed Saleem Shahzad of Pakistan who interviewed Ilyas Kashmiri about his future terror plans at his den and on his invitation.

In early September 2009, Pakistani officials and Western intelligence agencies believed that Ilyas Kashmir, Al Qaeda/HuJI operations chief in Pakistan and another close aide of Bin Laden, a Uzbek terrorist commander identified as Nazimuddin Zalalov (a.ka. Yahyo) have been killed in missile attacks in Turrikhel area of North Waziristan.

The other two names, Headly and Rana came as a bit of surprise to many in India and in the US. But their plan made one thing clear about the intention and capability of terrorist outfits (like LeT, Al Qaeda and JeM) that have transnational reach and global Jihadi agenda. These two men are part of a Lashkar-e-Taiba plot to attack major landmarks in India and Denmark. The US investigating agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have so far neutralized what is now dubbed as LeT’s ‘Chicago Terror Plot’. Headley was arrested early in October 2009 by the Joint Terrorism Task Force at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. He was reportedly planning to travel to Pakistan in near future to meet Ilyas Kashmiri and other terrorist leaders. His accomplice and co plotter Rana was arrested from Chicago later in that month.

According to FBI affidavit filed in a Chicago court, Headley had visited Pakistan a number of times before and constantly in touch with his LeT handlers (two Pakistan based LeT terrorists are still to be identified) in Pakistan through emails. As per the FBI the email communications revealed that a LeT mastermind in Pakistan was placing a higher priority on using Headley to assist in planning a new attack in India than on completing the planned attack in Denmark (facilities of Jyllands-Posten, the Danish newspaper which carried a cartoon strip of Prophet Muhammad in 2005 and perhaps (I suspect) a commando type assault during the upcoming Climate Summit). Any audacious attacks on these spots (and in India) would have given Lashkar-e-Taiba a position parallel to Al Qaeda in the international terrorism arena.

In June 2003, FBI made a similar breakthrough arresting at least seven Lashkar sympathizers or would be terrorists from in and around Washington region (3 from Maryland, 3 from Virginia and one in Pennsylvania), for providing material support to LeT.

The latest foiled LeT plot targeted vital landmarks, installations and elite boarding schools, as per the FBI investigations. The LeT is obviously planning Nov 2008 Mumbai type assaults in India and the possible targets were National Defense College, New Delhi, Doon School in Dehradun and Woodstock School in Mussoorie. It has been reported also that these terrorists have major plans to target the American and the Israeli nationals in India.

We find nothing new about the latest and earlier Lashkar planning to target India, Israelis and Americans. The threat emanates from LeT is still vivid in public memory: during October 2000 annual convention of the LeT in Lahore's Gulshan-i-Iqbal park where LeT chief Hafiz Saeed uttered anti India and Anti Israel rhetoric following a blast that took place near the venue. He held India and Israel responsible for the blast and threatened revenge; and of course his infamous utterances that LeT would plant the 'flag of Islam' in Washington, Tel Aviv and New Delhi.

Barely twenty more days to go when India will observe the first anniversary of Mumbai terror mayhem (26/11, 2008). The memory of that sixty odd hours of ordeal will again haunt us for some time and then ‘business as usual’. The question to ponder here is how far we have progressed so far since 26/11, especially to fight the menace like Mumbai or Chicago type assaults and plots.

NEFA Foundation: Response from Gaza to Solidarity Calls from Shabaab al-Mujahideen

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a letter from an unnamed Palestinian Islamist in the Gaza Strip, posted on several prominent jihadi forums, thanking the top commander of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement in Somalia for announcing a new campaign to launch military attacks on Israel. The letter explained, "You brought us pleasure a few days ago when you went out to a precious solemn march (in solidarity with Palestine and its Muslim oppressed people). How glad were we with regard to this precious march, which we saw as a preliminary beginning (for the recruitment) of the world to jihad in order to conquer Jerusalem and free it from the clutches of the brutal Zionists... We also thank you for your good act in establishing a jihadist forefront, which you have called Al-Quds Brigade in order to conquer Jerusalem...[in order to] lay siege to the descendants of [Banu] Quraysh, [Banu] Nazir and [Banu] Qinqa' and their followers and supporters and stick a knife in their necks. And then there will be no way that they can escape from our jihad swords. You will find that our homes are your homes, our weapon is your weapon, our farms are your farms, our money is your money, our blood is yours."

A complete English translation of the letter to Shabaab from Gaza can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Interview with Taliban Spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid re: the UN Guesthouse Attack in Kabul

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained an English transcript of an interview with Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid regarding the October 28th attack on the UN Guesthouse in Kabul that left 11 dead, including 5 UN workers. According to the interview, “A great number of foreigners, who are to monitor the coming runoff elections, are staying in the guesthouse. Being equipped with weapons, the Mujahideen succeeded to enter the guesthouse and opened fire on security guards pointblank inside the compound of the guesthouse. When security forces from other parts of the city arrived at the scene, Mujahideen engaged them in fighting. After putting up strong resistance, the Mujahideen detonated their explosives, killing or injuring about 50 foreigners.” Moreover, “According to a previously worked out plan, Mujahideen fired 5 missiles at the Presidential Palace and the Serena Hotel at nine o’clock which resulted in casualties among foreign nationals, staying in the hotel. Eyewitnesses say, vehicles were seen racing out with dead bodies and injured persons. Our information emphasizes some members of the monitoring team for the next runoff elections including staff workers and advisers were residing in the hotel."

A complete English version of the Zabiullah Mujahid interview can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Fort Hood: The largest "Terror act" since 9/11

By Walid Phares

Fort Hood attack

The Fort Hood killings, perpetrated by Major Malik Nadal Hasan, a psychiatric by training, no matter what the judiciary reports will conclude is for now the largest single Terror act in America since 9/11. This quantitative finding will take into consideration dramatic change in the data released by authorities.

The shooting inside a US military installation that led to the killing of many personnel compels us to ponder. Over the past few years and months authorities have stopped attempts on similar attacks. The Fort Dix Jihadi plot, dismantled in 2006, aimed at performing a killing of military personnel inside the base. Other cells, dismantled in Georgia, New York and North Carolina also had plans for attacking military installations on US soil. But more importantly a number of lone wolves have also expressed intentions to attack military personnel.

Read More »

Climate Change and Terrorism

By Roderick Jones

Just before the world's attention swings over to the climate change conference in Copenhagen [COP15] I thought it might be worthwhile to pause and consider the security implications of this subject. The CIA announced it was opening a Climate Change Center to do just that, back in September. How will this shift in the global climate shift national security priorities? The only group I am currently aware of that has touched this in some way is the Global Business Network - they have a white paper available here.

I have put down some thoughts over on the company blog - as well as some data on the Earth Liberation Front. However, the subject of how global terrorism and localized insurgencies will adapt, disappear or be created by Climate Change has yet to be fully explored.

Memo to Obama: Listen to Jim Gant or Risk Losing Afghan War

By James Gordon Meek

Green Beret hero Maj. Jim Gant is the author of a brilliant new strategy for how to succeed in the Afghan War now entering its ninth year, “One Tribe At A Time.”

Before making major decisions on whether to escalate the war by adding 20-40,000 more G.I.s to the fight, President Obama and his war council ought to read every word of the common sense arguments made by Gant (at left in eastern Afghanistan disguised as a Pashtun warrior).

Laid out in 50 pages of plain English that won’t give you a headache, Gant’s proposal hinges on the idea that it’s not important how many troops are deployed - it’s how you use them.

The Silver Star recipient's strategy shows the kind of street smarts desperately needed in the White House brainstorming sessions.

Gant's advice? Field American “tribal engagement teams” to live with - and fight alongside - Pashtun tribesmen, who dominate southern and eastern Afghanistan and have little faith in, or loyalty to, the government in Kabul. Their centuries-old tribal code of honor, justice and revenge, called Pashtunwali, is the only system of governance they need - and it can help us defeat the Taliban.

“Nothing else will work,” is Gant’s blunt bottom line.

The White House has yet to give the Special Forces officer a call. But we learned at the New York Daily News that top Pentagon brass are intrigued enough by this once obscure quiet warrior to give his big ideas a shot.

They have nothing to lose but a war.

U.S. and NATO commanders have never bought into tribal integration, much less the hardly-crazy concept that Gant envisions: handpicked Special Forces operators willing to live for years in one spot on the map and who become part of a local tribe as much as any outsider could hope for. Pashtun elders are often frustrated by the American faces that change every year.

“I will get on a helicopter tonight, armed with an AK-47 and 300 rounds of ammunition and put my life on the line and my strategy to the test - will you do the same?” Gant boldly challenges.

Please read my full post on the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

CTR Vantage: Al Shabaab's Recruiting Efforts in the West

By Madeleine Gruen

The Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies has released the first issue of CTR Vantage. Each issue of CTR Vantage will focus on a specific terrorism-related theme. This first issue examines al-Shabaab's recruitment tactics in the West, and efforts that have been made to minimize Shabaab's potential allure in Somali diaspora communities.

The lead article discusses the October 13th indictment of Somali-American, Abbow Munye Abdow, and the application of "false statement" charges in terrorism cases.

The second article is a comprehensive backgrounder on al-Shabaab and the history of the Islamist groups in Somalia.

The third article, titled "Al-Shabaab Recruiting in the West," takes a comprehensive look at what we know about the group's efforts to recruit fighters in the United States, and in other Western countries.

The final article concerns the efficacy of the Somali president's recent diplomatic efforts in Minneapolis, Columbus, OH, and Chicago.

Future issues of CTR Vantage will cover aspects of the Black Nationalist/Islamist movement in the U.S., lessons learned from the terror plots of 2009. CTR Vantage will be published every two to three weeks.

CTR Vantage is co-written and co-edited by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross (also a CT Blog contributor) and Madeleine Gruen, with contributions from the staff of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

You may view the current issue of CTR Vantage by clicking here.

NEFA Foundation: Al-Qaida Roundup on Failed Nayif Assassination Bid

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained an English transcript for a recent terrorist propaganda video titled, “The Descendants of Mohammed bin Maslamah”, which was produced by Al-Qaida’s network in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen). The video purports to document the failed August 2009 assassination attempt on Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayif by an Al-Qaida suicide bomber dispatched from neighboring Yemen. It includes footage of the final testament of the bomber himself, Saudi national Abdullah Aseri (a.k.a. “Abul Khair”)—along with sermon from, among others, former Guantanamo Bay detainee Said al-Shehri (a.k.a. “Shaykh Abu Sufyan”), also a native of Saudi Arabia.

Additionally, the NEFA Foundation has also obtained an English transcript of a recent audio recording by Shaykh Ibrahim al-Rubeish titled, “Why Mohammed Bin Nayif?”. During the audio, produced by Al-Qaida’s network in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen), al-Rubeish lays out the justification for Al-Qaida’s attempted August 2009 assassination of Saudi Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayif via a suicide bomber dispatched from neighboring Yemen. According to al-Rubeish, the bomber responsible for the attack—Saudi national Abdullah Aseri (a.k.a. “Abul Khair”) “sought by his actions to say to Mohammed bin Nayif: the time has come for you to drink from the same cup which you gave to our brothers. Here we are, we will spill your blood as you spilled ours, terrorize you as you terrorized the believers and demolish your home as you demolished those of others. You will be dealt with as you deal with others, and you will be given something similar to your own actions.”

Both English transcripts are now available on the NEFA Foundation website.

Failed States vs. Criminal States

By Douglas Farah

Today's Washington Post has an interesting article on how the North Korean military is now the primary extractive body of the North Korean establishment, and is, in fact, relatively efficient at extracting natural resources to sell to China and elsewhere.

It is an important piece because it highlights a much broader reality that we have been slow to come to grips with. In almost any index of failed states, North Korea ranks fairly high. But in reality it is not a failed state at all. It retains the capacity to efficiently extract what it (the state) needs for survival. It may not provide basic necessities such as fuel, food, clothing, education, medical service or sewage, but it is efficient at what it sets out to do. And this economic extractive capacity is the key to perpetrating the regimes in power.

The primary danger of these criminal-extractive states (such as Liberia under Charles Taylor, Zimbabwe under Mugabe, Equatorial Guinea under the Obiang clan) is that they offer criminal and terrorist organizations ideal circumstances in which to operate. In fact, these overlapping networks are essential to the survival of the state as criminal syndicate.

Because these states rely on criminal networks for their economic survival (North Korea on counterfeit currency, illicit nuclear technology sales etc.; Charles Taylor on blood diamonds), and terrorist organizations increasingly rely on criminal organizations and activities for funding and facilitation, these states become host organisms to criminal and terrorist parasites.

In fact, these criminal states rely on criminal/terrorist networks to provide the illicit funds that make them viable. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Shabaab al-Mujahideen Declares Formation of the "Al-Quds Brigade"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a communiqué from Shabaab al-Mujahideen declaring the formation of the "Al-Quds Brigade." According to the statement, on October 30, 2009, “Hundreds of thousands of citizens in the Islamic districts in [the] south and middle of Somalia…came out [to the streets]…in solidarity with their brothers in occupied Palestine and as a condemnation of the crimes of the hated Jews." The communiqué continued, “Several of the leaders of The Mujahideen Youth Movement took part in it, among them Sheikh Mukhtar Rubu Ali Abu Mansour, Sheikh Fuad Muhammad Khalaf, Sheikh Sultan Bin Muhammad Al Muhammad, Sheikh Ali Muhammad Hussein and Sheikh Mahed Omar/Amar Abed Al-Karim. In addition, there were several dignitaries and tribal leaders. The leadership of the movement declared the establishment of a special unit whose name is Al-Quds Brigade, and whose goal is to free the Islamic holy places. The unit has shown a very strong military parade and was supplied with different types of weapons as a welcome to the participants." Shabaab noted, “it is time for conducting an open battle with the oppressing Zionist entity as well as targeting its interests, especially in the Black Continent."

An English translation of the Shabaab communique can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: Interview with Taliban Official in Herat Province

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained an interview with Sheikh Abdul Manan Niyazi, Governor and Military Official for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (The Taliban) in Herat Province, published in Al-Somood, a monthly Islamic magazine published by the Taliban’s media center. According to Al-Somood, Niyazi has belonged to the Taliban “since the beginning of its establishment and he is…considered to have played a prominent role in the foundation of the movement." Niyazi asserted that “Percentage-wise…the enemy does not control more than 10% of Herat…In Herat there are no areas in which the Mujahidin do not have powerful military strongholds which they control." He added, “we can say with all reassurance that the Mujahideen are concentrated in plentiful numbers in every corner of Herat province, praise be to Allah. We do not feel any scarcity of Mujahedeen and have not suffered from any scarcity up to this time. They resist the enemy with different military procedures and use effective tactics such as exploding mines and improvised explosive devices, fight and flight and surprise raids." Among the operations he highlighted was an attack on Italian forces that “was considered the worst losses suffered by the Italian forces since they came to Afghanistan. This has caused the issue of withdrawing Italian troops to swell during these days and their have been violent debates on this topic."

A copy of the interview with Shaykh Niyazi can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA "Target: America" Series - "The North Carolina Jihad Cell and the Quantico Marine Base Plot"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released the 22nd report in the “Target: America” series, a PowerPoint presentation on the accused jihadist network operating in Raleigh, North Carolina and an alleged plot, involving members of that cell, to attack the U.S. Marine Corps base in Quantico, Virginia.

In July 2009, a North Carolina grand jury indicted seven U.S. citizens and one legal permanent resident, charging the men with providing material support to terrorists and conspiracy to murder persons abroad. A September 2009 superseding indictment charged two of the men with the Quantico plot, alleging they shifted their focus to a domestic target after the group’s plans to wage jihad overseas were unsuccessful. In furtherance of the plot, the alleged leader of the conspiracy, Daniel Boyd, conducted reconnaissance on the Marine base and possessed weapons intended for the attack. During their search of Boyd’s house, authorities seized 26 weapons and more than 27,000 rounds of ammunition. Boyd, whose two sons were charged in the material support indictment, claims to have trained and fought in Afghanistan in the early 90’s and also led a small group practicing military tactics and the use of weapons on private property in N.C. in July 2009. In addition to radicalizing his two sons, Boyd also allegedly played a key role in the recruitment of others in the network. As David S. Kris, Assistant Attorney General for National Security, remarked: "This case underscores the potential threat that U.S. citizens with foreign fighter experience pose upon returning to the United States, specifically in terms of inciting other U.S.-based individuals to follow their example. They return from conflict zones with combat experience, a network of contacts overseas and strong credibility with…recruits seeking an authority figure.” Notably, Daniel Boyd’s father was a U.S. Marine Corps Captain decorated with 4 Purple Hearts, his brother reportedly “works for the Pentagon,” and his truck was adorned with a “Support our Troops” bumper sticker.

This PowerPoint report includes numerous government photographs of weapons, ammunition, and other items seized by the FBI during the search of Boyd’s house and excerpts from the Facebook pages of certain conspirators. Accompanying the report, the NEFA Foundation is releasing a revealing FBI summary of an interview with Daniel Boyd’s son Dylan, which provides further insight into the network.

The NEFA powerpoint and FBI interview summary can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: Biography of “Martyred” East African Al-Qaida Operative Saleh Ali Nabhan

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a biography, posted on a jihadist website, of a key suspect allegedly behind the 1998 East Africa Embassy bombings, Saleh Ali Nabhan, who was killed in a U.S. helicopter strike south of Mogadishu in September 2009. According to the document, Nabhan traveled to Afghanistan, where he attended the Khalden and Al Farouq training camps. There “he mastered various military skills. He then was chosen to be a trainer, and he survived the American raid on the al-Farouq camp…he was the guard of the camp gate at the time of the raid." Most notably, he purportedly “participated in training the 19 [martyrs] chosen to change the course of history; heroes of Manhattan Battle: Muhammad Atta and his companions. He mastered the art of forgery very well, and he told me that he assisted in forging documents for the 19 brothers." Upon returning to Kenya, “they planned the Paradise Hotel operation.” (NEFA previously published a statement from Shabaab al-Mujahideen celebrating Nabhan’s “martyrdom.”)

An English translation of Nabhan's biography can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Israel as an Al-Qa`ida Target: Sorting Rhetoric From Reality

By Matthew Levitt

A variety of groups in the Palestinian Territories claim to be affiliated with or inspired by al-Qa`ida. None of these groups, however, have been welcomed into the al-Qa`ida franchise. Moreover, this bottom up phenomenon where local Palestinian groups reach out to al-Qa`ida is not matched by a top down effort by al-Qa`ida’s core leadership or even its established affiliates to create an official al-Qa`ida faction in the Palestinian Territories. Nevertheless, in nearly all of al-Qa`ida’s public statements, the liberation of Palestine is a goal and Israel is denounced as an enemy. Al-Qa`ida’s extensive anti-Israel rhetoric, however, is not matched with the parallel operational focus on targeting Israel.

Instead, it appears that Palestine is employed as a useful lightening rod through which al-Qa`ida can tap into the emotional attachment of Muslims and Arabs worldwide. The place of Palestine and Israel in al-Qa`ida’s speeches and operations is shaped by its need to construct narratives, often focused on specific populations and conflicts, that support its radical and violent agenda. To do this, it must place conflicts throughout the world that involve Muslims into a singular, radical narrative in which Islam in general and Muslims in particular must defend themselves from Western aggression. For al-Qa`ida, the Palestinian cause is a paradigmatic example of this phenomenon. Since the Israel-Palestine conflict is perhaps the single most animating regional conflict for many Arabs and Muslims, its resonanceprovides al-Qa`ida with a powerful rhetorical tool for radicalization, recruitment, and fundraising.

In an article that appears in the latest volume of CTC Sentinel, the online journal of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (where I am an associate fellow), I demonstrate that while al-Qa`ida has always been interested in the Palestinian issue there is a remarkable gap between al-Qa`ida’s rhetoric and its operations targeting Israel. Those few attacks that al-Qa`ida has conducted against Israeli and Jewish targets have been small-scale and half-hearted.

The full article is available here.

Bin Laden Vid Cameo? Bugs Key to Squashing His Minions?

By James Gordon Meek

A new tape produced by Al Qaeda’s propaganda blowhards, As Sahab (“The Clouds”), is raising questions about the whereabouts of top leaders in the terror network, including Osama Bin Laden.

The video posted on jihadi websites stars Al Qaeda cleric Abu Yahya al-Libi delivering a sermon for the Muslim holiday Eid, which recently ended. It is a typical al-Libi (“The Libyan”) Armageddon-laced sermon, in which he blasts President Obama as a “black crow” unworthy of the accolades heaped upon him.

“Can a human please Obama and please Allah the Great and Almighty?” al-Libi asks.

The video is sure to receive careful analysis at CIA headquarters given the visuals and al-Libi's woodsy environment, which includes singing cicadas.

He is videotaped outdoors speaking before an audience including an intentionally blurred-out figure who bears a striking resemblance to Osama Bin Laden, though “his identity cannot be confirmed,” the SITE Intelligence Group concluded.

“If this is Osama Bin Laden, it would be the first time video of him has been released since 2007 and then before that 2004,” a statement by another private terrorism research group, IntelCenter, said.

U.S. intelligence officials are highly skeptical Bin Laden attended al-Libi’s sermon.

Please see my full post on the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

Joint Congressional Hearing on Iran in Latin America

By Douglas Farah

On Tuesday I testified before three Subcommittees of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on the issue of Iran's involvement in Latin America. My oral testimony is a bit more detailed on Iranian banks in Ecuador, which I am including here.

The general consensus of those testifying (links to the the testimonies of all the witnesses can be found here under the hearing notice) was that Iran's penetration presents a strategic and under appreciated threat to both the democratic institutions of the region and the United States.

Iran's sponsorship of Hezbollah and Chávez's sponsorship of the FARC, and the history of both terrorist groups in reaching out to other non-state organizations for learning and cross-training is of particularly troublesome.

One of the factors that I think is important to point out in all this discussion is that the leaders of Bolivarian Revolution, and Chávez in particular, are not efficient in what they do or particularly coherent and consistent in how they behave. That is to say, Chávez does not necessarily have the broad control over all aspects of Venezuelan political life, nor does his government execute very well.

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the world, and an oil-rich nation is suffering from both crippling electrical blackouts and water shortages in its main cities.

One of the factors that the Iranians and Cubans bring to the Boliviarian nations is a different sense of discipline and structure, making certain elements of the government far more accomplished at what they do. This is particularly true in the area of internal security and the suppression of dissent and control of the media. My full blog is here.

NEFA Foundation: Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) Claims Baghdad Bombings

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) claiming responsibility for the suicide car bombings that left more than 160 dead and injured nearly 500. According to the statement, “One of the selected targets that was chosen this time was the ministry of evil and exploitation, the ‘ministry of justice’, and the other one was Baghdad's provincial council, the ‘legislative council of the local government of Baghdad’…[the mujahideen] pulled away the curtain on the criminals of this beautiful area, and ended the numerous lies…”

The complete English translation of the message from the ISI can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.