Counterterrorism Blog
The first multi-expert blog dedicated solely to counterterrorism issues, serving as a gateway to the community for policymakers and serious researchers. Designed to provide realtime information about terrorism cases and policy developments.

  August 21, 2008

Examining Legal Regimes to Combat Terrorism in Near East & South Asia

By Andrew Cochran

On July 22 and 23, I attended a conference co-hosted by the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and the Inter-University Center for Legal Studies at the International Law Institute, titled, "Lifting the Fog of Law: Legal Regimes to Combat Terrorism in the Near East and South Asia” in Washington. The conference brought together 70 experts from the U.S., North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia came together to exchange views on the effectiveness of legal regimes in those regions as a foundation upon which to build national and international counter-terrorism efforts. Both hosting organizations are known for their objective analyses of and experience in CT policy, and we have co-sponsored numerous panels with the co-director of the Inter-University Center, Dr. Yonah Alexander (see a summary of our last such panel held in May). With their permission, I am posting a summary of the proceedings' main points:

"Multiple insights into the traditions for dealing with violent actors and the various national legal regimes under discussion resulted from the conference. These insights will be fully addressed in the edited volume that will result from this event. There were, however, some overarching issues that bear mentioning here.

a. Context Matters: In the international arena, law and legal frameworks are to a great extent the product of the cultural environment from which they originate; and they have evolved on different tracks over time in response to individual situations. It is a difficult task to reconcile differences in legal systems with such divergent origins and underlying rationales, even where interests are shared and common threats menace.

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Transnational Jihad, Supremacism, and Cold War Tactics

By Jeffrey Imm

In facing new threats, a fundamental focus must be on defining the identity of such threats and an associated awareness of the need to change our governmental and policy strategies accordingly. If the threats are not clearly identified and defined, the consequences are a series of desperate, fractured tactical efforts to address aspects of the threats as perceived by diverse governmental organizations, without a coordinated strategy. Such a tactical-centric approach to new threats would predictably draw upon old paradigms and processes used in addressing older, previous threats.

This remains the primary challenge to America in dealing with Jihad. Without defining Jihad's ideological basis, desperate governmental leaders and policy analysts revert to using outdated tactical measures that are focused on regional threats and Cold War statist measures. Without a strategy defining the ideological threat, government and policy leaders are confused, misguided, and frightened, and offer half-measure tactics. In today's America, this combination of factors has resulted in the current ambiguous "war on extremism."

To effectively deal with the war of ideas that Jihad represents, American government and policy leaders must honestly and clearly define the enemy ideology, and reject regional and statist tactics that are designed for a different enemy than we are fighting today.


The Regional Conflict Perspective to Jihad

On August 18, 2008 in the southern Philippines, new Jihadist atrocities were committed against the Philippine people, leaving 39 dead. News reports stated that "[s]ome of the civilians were hacked to death by machetes and there were reports that some were used as human shields during the violent rampage." This is the latest in a Jihadist struggle that has reportedly claimed 120,000 lives in the past 30 years in the southern Philippines - equivalent to forty 9/11 attacks. Yet this Jihadist atrocity does not get major mainstream news coverage, because of a counterterror position that is prevalent throughout much of America's intelligence agencies and analysts, which views Jihad in the Philippines as an isolated, regional conflict that has no links to Jihadist terrorism elsewhere in the world.

Analysts have remained focused on the geographical and ethnic issues in the Philippine Jihad struggle on the southern most Philippine island of Mindanao, which is 63 percent Christian, but where Islamic supremacists seek to have a segregated, separate territory. In fact, to try to achieve peace by accommodating segregationist goals of such separatists, the Philippine government created an Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) which has its own separate government (that the other Philippine citizens have to support 98 percent of its economy). The latest violence is the result of a Philippine Supreme Court decision that defies the Islamic ARMM territory from having the "right" to assimilate new cities and provinces to expand its separatist territory. The Philippine's Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) jihad attacks have been defended by terrorist leader Abdurahman Macapaar who threatens total war on the Philippine citizens and states that "in the eyes of Allah we are not terrorists," calling for "Islamic justice in Mindanao." The horror of the Jihadist atrocities in the Philippines is lost on the U.S. Ambassador to Philippines Kristie Kenney who urges the Philippine government to negotiate with this same MILF organization, and dismisses the latest attacks as merely "a few bad days."

The "regional conflict" perspective is so embedded among many policy analysts that there is no linkage between the Islamic supremacist ideology inspiring the Philippines Jihad resulting in 120,000 dead, the ongoing terror attacks (Jihad and Communist) in India with an estimated 60,000+ dead (TOI report, BJP report), the ongoing Jihad attacks in Thailand since 2004 with 2,700 dead, the thousands dead from Jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the steady stream of Jihadist terror plots and Islamic supremacist abuses in the United Kingdom and Europe. The standard argument remains that a solution to this global threat must analyze the needs of the local communities in each area to find ways to discourage "extremism." Moreover, since the victims are not in Iraq, they get minimal to no American mainstream media news coverage, except for wire news reports. Jihadist terror that has resulted in hundreds of thousands dead in other regions of the world is just not "news" to many American media outlets.

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  August 20, 2008

New Al Qaeda Message Confirms Head of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan Still Alive

By Andrew Cochran

The SITE Intelligence Group has issued a press release that a new speech is forthcoming from Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, containing eulogies for two recently killed Al Qaeda commanders, Abu Khabab al-Masri (a.k.a. Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar) and Abu Abdullah al-Shami, an escapee from Bagram prison in July 2005 and killed last month in a U.S. strike. I posted about al-Masri's reported death on July 28, and Evan Kohlmann posted the NEFA Foundation's transcript of Al Qaeda's acknowledgement of that on August 6.

The value of this message is that it is final confirmation that the head of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, was not killed in a Pakistani strike as reported on August 12, as deduced by his signature on this message and his exclusion from the names of the eulogized. The American intel community never supported that report, as I noted in the update to my post.

The Price of the Criminal-Terror Nexus in Afghanistan

By Douglas Farah

The increasingly sophisticated attacks by the Taliban against U.S. and NATO troops, including the recent coordinated strikes that left 10 French soldiers dead shows how the Taliban has evolved over the past year.

What is clear is that, whatever the strategy there is, it is not working. I would argue that the almost exponential growth rate of opium cultivation in recent years is the vital component in allowing the Taliban to obtain the resources to replenish its fighting capabilities, which were almost destroyed in the wake of 9/11.

This source of income to the Taliban is free from any controls a state sponsor would be able to impose on the use of donated funds. The commodity can be easily exchanged for weapons, or turned into cash to pay for new recruits, training, protection and logistics. A consequence, in addition to the sophisticated frontal attacks, is the rapid growth of increasingly sophisticated road side bombs, now causing the most casualties of any weapon in Afghanistan.

Given that the cash pipeline is not being attacked in any way that is making a significant difference, the plans for a mini surge there, with additional U.S. troops is unlikely to make a key difference.

As US News reported, Some U.S. military officials express skepticism, however, about the impact more U.S. troops can make seven years into the war, in a large country that has grown increasingly violent—with citizens, they add, who are increasingly disillusioned. "I don't know if it's too late," says a senior military official. "But it's going to be much, much harder to turn things around at this point."

In fact, what is alarming in the discussions of the surge in Afghanistan is the almost-total lack of focus on opium revenues as a key component.

If one looks at two recent cases where there has been measurable and important successes against non-state armed groups (Al Qaeda in Iraq and the FARC in Colombia), one of the key components is the shutting off of financial revenues. My full blog is here.

  August 19, 2008

Hezbollah Signs Pact with Salafis

By Walid Phares

"But implementation to be decided later"

Amidst a growing world crisis, new developments in Lebanon may signal what lies ahead in the sphere of global jihadist forces in the near future. A memorandum of understanding has been signed by Hezbollah, the main pro-Iranian organization in the region, and a number of Salafist groups outlining efforts to "confront America."

Innocent minds may question how that impacts our lives. However, events that unfold in Beirut have a direct effect on the war on terror, or to be more precise, on the jihadist war on democracies. Here is why:

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Ideological Blinders and Missed Opportunities in Counter-Radicalization

By Matthew Levitt

Jeffrey Imm’s recent broadside against myself, my colleague Michael Jacobson, The Washington Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, West Point’s Counterterrorism Center, and the Quilliam Foundation is a poor reflection of the Counterterrorism Blog in its departure from the Blog’s tradition of civil and scholarly debate. Unfortunately, Imm’s blog is neither.

Contrary to Mr. Imm’s assertion that I criticized him in my July 17 post, that article barely mentioned him at all (and never in a derogatory tone) focusing instead on the substance at hand. In concluded, “While Mr. Imm is right that not every extremist or terrorist renouncing their former way of life is fully deradicalized, to dismiss all of them is not only short sighted, but risks missing valuable opportunities for the US and its allies.” Mr. Imm’s most recent post only underlines that conclusion.

But before I address the substantive issues, let me correct just two of Mr. Imm’s multiple factual errors.

In his post, Mr. Imm criticizes my colleague Michael Jacobson for citing Dr. Fadl as someone who has renounced terrorism in a recent article published in West Point CTC's publication "The Sentinel." Mr. Imm says that this is part of a broader pattern with the Washington Institute, accusing us of having a "consistently uncritical view" regarding those who claim to have left terrorism behind.

Mr. Imm's charges on this issue are badly off the mark. First, Mr. Imm has taken Mr. Jacobson's statements out of context to suggest that he has given Dr. Fadl the seal of approval. In his article, Mr. Jacobson was not citing Dr. Fadl's renunciation to indicate that he was persuaded that it was genuine. In fact, Mr. Jacobson was making a far different point -- that despite the positive attention heaped on Dr. Fadl and others who have publicly recanted, we do not know what the effect of these recantations will be on those currently in terrorist organizations. We need to understand this issue far better to design a successful and effective counterterrorism program. To take this very legitimate point and use it to "demonstrate" that the Institute is uncritical is quite disingenuous.

Mr. Imm's ideologically driven analysis is clear from the fact that he so readily dismisses the possible broader implications of Dr. Fadl's statements. Even if Dr. Fadl hasn't fully renounced all terrorism, it would still be very significant that one of the original founders of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a man on whom Bin Ladin and al Qaeda have relied to provide the ideological foundation for their takfiri ideology, is now recanting some of his former positions. Many analysts believe that his statements criticizing al Qaeda - along with those of other former clerics and terrorist leaders - are beginning to cause a real schism within the global jihadist community. How the US can take advantage of a possible fissure through its counterterrorism and counter-radicalization efforts is a critical and immediate question that Mr. Imm is far too quick to dismiss. While there is certainly room for skepticism about the ultimate ramifications, it is critical to at least consider the potential implications of these recent developments.

Mr. Imm took the liberty of quoting me out of context as well. Imm contends that I made “the incredible claim” that the way back from Islamism is through political salafists who have credibility when it comes to deradicalizing others. In fact, I noted that officials in the UK, the Netherlands and elsewhere have successfully leveraged even political salafists in their counter-radicalization efforts, even as they see these groups for what they are and recognize they still support some forms of extremism. Without accepting them, these governments are using them to their advantage. I noted this, concluding that “these are issues which bear further exploring”:

Another important question that needs to be asked, and one that has often been given short- shrift (including on this blog) is how to leverage the ideological fissures that develop between and among our adversaries -- even when the more moderate wing is still not as moderate as we would like them to be. In the UK, for example, a distinction is often made between "jihadi salafists" and "political salafists," with the government willing to work with some groups that fall into the latter category but none in the former. (For the record, Quilliam has come out against working with groups that fall into either category). Not only do the political salafists have credibility when it comes to deradicalizing others, but as the Dutch argue it may be better to keep them in the larger tent than drive them further underground. In addition, having recently spent time in the UK (as well as France and Holland), talking to counterterrorism officials and local community leaders, it is striking how concerned they are about the threat of an imminent attack. Against that background, it becomes more understandable why they're trying to find allies wherever they can. The British realize they may have significant differences with "political salafists" who think "resistance" in Palestine or Iraq is legitimate, but are thinking about ways that they can at least leverage them and their positions in an effort to de-radicalize the most severe extremists (taqfiris) randomly targeting civilians today.

Mr. Imm also ignored in his postings inconvenient truths. For example, Mr. Imm challenged Quilliam to reject Islamic supremacism, and when Mr. Nawaz did exactly that it went unacknowledged by Mr. Imm.

On the issue of substance, Mr. Imm confuses and conflates two separate issues. The question is not whether radical Islamic extremism is a problem, nor whether support for terrorism or political violence is acceptable in some circumstances but not in others - we’re all in agreement that suicide bombing in Israel or Iraq is just as barbaric, criminal and unacceptable as use of that tactic is in the UK or elsewhere. A review of the Institute’s Stein Program’s work on the subject speaks for itself, and is there for the general public and Mr. Imm to review, including our books, peer-reviewed academic articles, policy articles, editorials, and more.

Rather, the issue is how to leverage “political salafists” in our counter-radicalization campaigns when, unlike Quilliam, they are not fully moderate and do still support some forms of “jihad” or terrorism that we do not. We need not accept them to use them to our advantage, a cornerstone of traditional tradecraft.

Mr. Imm is correct to question how it is that analysts should go about assessing claims of moderation by Muslim groups, especially by former radicals. The answer, I submit once more, is that it requires something more than armchair analysis and research-by-Google. Mr. Imm notes that as a second generation British-American he has spent plenty of time in the UK. But time spent visiting cousins is not field research. How much of that time has Mr. Imm spent interviewing former Jihadists? How much of that time was spent in East or North London? How much time did Mr. Imm invest meeting with intelligence, law enforcement, or the Home Office? These types of meetings are key to understanding not only the terrorist threat, but what should be done to counter it. While Mr. Imm’s open source research is thorough, true scholarship must also include reviewing primary sources and conducting on the ground, first-hand field research. Mr. Imm may disagree with us based on articles he’s read online, but Mr. Jacobson and I feel reaching out to groups like Quilliam, and exploring ways to leverage fissures within the extremist community, are critical aspects of a successful counterterrorism strategy.

  August 18, 2008

Quilliam Foundation and Misdirection on Egypt's Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa

By Jeffrey Imm

In my July 16, 2008 article "False Reports of Jihadists 'Quitting' or Abandoning Islamic Supremacism," I challenged the Quilliam Foundation to address some key questions that were being asked about its organization. The primary issue I raised was its documented support for Egyptian Grand Mufti Sheik Ali Gomaa (also spelled "Ali Gum'a" or "Goma").

In reply, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence Director Matthew Levitt criticized me on July 17 for asking this obvious question, and on August 15, that same organization's Michael Jacobson published a "response" to my July 16 article on behalf of Maajid Nawaz of the Quilliam Foundation.

Mr. Nawaz's comments in Mr. Jacobson's reposting "Quilliam Responds" are not a response at all, but are directed towards a July 30, 2008 letter from various senators to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice regarding "a 2003 article in Egypt's 'Al-Haqiqa' newspaper quoting Ali Goma defending terrorist acts in Israel." Mr. Nawaz dismisses this quote as he states it is coming from a "Wahabite-Islamist source" and "a newspaper that explicitly promotes a Shari'ah-law based Caliphate." (On the other hand, Mr. Nawaz does not explain how he defends Ali Gomaa who is interviewed in the March 2008 U.S. News and World Report as seeing Sharia as a solution for "Islamic extremism.")

Mr. Nawaz further defends Gomaa by referencing a July 21, 2007 Newsweek / Washington Post blog article where Gomaa seeks to define jihad with "a large category of meanings," and where Gomaa states that "Islam forbids suicide" and "Islam forbids aggression against others." (This did not stop Gomaa from defending the terrorist group Hezbollah, as he viewed Hezbollah attacks on Israel as a "defense of its country and not terrorism" and called for support for Hezbollah as a "religious duty.")  On July 24, 2007, the Gulf News reported an update on Gomaa's comments to Newsweek / Washington Post regarding "apostasy," quoting Gomaa: "What I actually said is that Islam prohibits a Muslim from changing his religion and that apostasy is a crime, which must be punished."

Mr. Nawaz further dismisses criticism of Gomaa by using a ploy of playing on assumed political divisions: "[o]n the matter of support for Ali Goma, it seems rather ironic that right-wing critics share their worries over our stance, probably to their horror, with Marxists on the far-left such as the UK Guardian's Seamus Milne." Unfortunately those who think that criticism of Islamic supremacism is merely a right-left issue, fail to understand the issue and certainly fail to understand America's history in fighting supremacist ideologies. Mr. Nawaz should recognize that his experiences with the Nazi Combat 18 group were part of a continuing challenge against supremacist ideologies, and that the battle against supremacism beliefs will not be addressed by inconsistencies or by pandering to inaccurate assumptions about right-left political divisions.

The larger issue that my July 16 article raised is how can an organization that attacks political Islamism, such as Quilliam Foundation, support an individual as Egyptian Grand Mufti Sheik Ali Gomaa, which it calls a "Muslim scholastic giant," when there are numerous articles about Gomaa that would make him a questionable "scholar" to emulate?

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Al Qaeda in Lebanon

By Olivier Guitta

Part of the three-part piece that I am writing for the Middle East Times on Al Qaeda's opportunistic strategy, I explored today Al Qaeda's alleged presence in Lebanon.
In case you missed the first part, you can read it here. You can read part 2 Al Qaeda in Gaza here.

Today's full article is here.
Here is an excerpt:

While Lebanese President Gen. Michel Suleiman was visiting Syrian President Bashar Assad, a terror attack hit Tripoli, Lebanon's second-largest city, killing 18 people, including nine soldiers and injuring over 40. It is still unclear who was behind this bloody attack, but fingers are pointing at Fatah al-Islam, the al-Qaida linked group that fought the Lebanese army in 2007 in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al-Bared. In fact Fatah al-Islam's leader, Shaker al-Absi, recently said he would target the military. But more than anything, it is the growing presence of al-Qaida in Lebanon that is worrying.

As early as 2006, Ahmed Fatfat, then Lebanese interior minister, revealed details about al-Qaida's presence in Lebanon.

Fatfat noted: "For the past 45 months, al-Qaeda has been trying to settle in Lebanon. The organization infiltrates combatants and recruits on the ground. We recently dismantled two groups suspected of belonging to this network. One month ago we stopped 13 individuals coming from various countries of the Middle East, who were preparing attacks inside the country. We also have just stopped five people implied in attacks against military positions."

Al Qaeda At 20: Some Thoughts

By Douglas Farah

I think Peter Bergen's Outlook section piece in the Washington Post was very useful in looking at al Qaeda at 20. It is hard to believe they have been around that long.

Of particular to me is his discussion of the deep differences between Marc Sageman and Bruce Hoffman on the future of al Qaeda. After two decades the nature of the enemy, and how different parts relate to each other, are still in dispute.

Bergen got it right in explaining why the two views, although often presented as such, are not mutually exclusive. As with so much of how we view the new world and its complex and shifting networks and alliances, many in the policy community and intelligence communities want things to be one way or the other. Usually they are not.

This is true in large part because the enemy is constantly moving, realigning and reconfiguring, both in response to the internal dynamics within the groups, and to external pressures. Their Darwinian ability to adapt to survive, and the elimination of their weakest and least careful members, make the task of tracing them ever harder.

The groups will also undergo tests of trial and error (the biggest error, as Bergen points out, being al Qaeda in Iraq's impressive loss of support among the Sunni population because of its increasingly brutal tactics) that will lead to shifting behavior and thinking over time.

While al Qaeda Central, as Bergen and others call the old guard, no longer can exercise the direct command and control that had before, the demise of Al Qaeda in Iraq is largely a boon for bin Laden.

He now has foreign fighters flocking to areas where he exercises the most direct control, again making the core al Qaeda a vital reference point-personally, ideologically and theologically-to those movements.

This is ironic, as al Qaeda in a general sense has lost a great deal of sympathy around the world, as has the Taliban. State sponsorship, such as the Taliban received from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan prior to 9/11, is now considerably less and considerably more muted.

This lack of state sponsorship is one of the driving forces behind the growing ties of these groups to criminal activity. Only resources on the scale gleaned from drug trafficking can fund a significant army for any length of time. This is one of the reasons I feel so strongly that the alliance is both inevitable and incredibly dangerous. My full blog is here.

  August 17, 2008

Hezbollah’s telecommunications expansion

By Walid Phares

As part of his ongoing monitoring and analyzing of the strategic expansion of Hezbollah in Lebanon, military expert Thomas Smith published a series of articles and blogs following up on the build up by the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, particularly in the areas north of the Litani river. In his last piece he had a conversation assessment with me on the latest penetration by Hezbollah of the Mount Lebanon areas, north of the Druze districts into the heartland of the Christian areas. It follows another piece about Hezbollah's strenght. Please find the two short blogs here.

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