Europe Approaches the First Anniversary of the Madrid Train Bombings

By Victor Comras

Nearly a year has past since the March 11, 2004 Madrid train bombing. Since then Europe has committed itself to strengthening cooperation and information sharing between its member states. They have also placed a high priority on improving police and judicial assistance. This is all part of the new reinforced European Action Plan on Terrorism and its new European Security Strategy (ESS). These goals were reiterated at the November 5, 2004 EU Hague summit where European leaders again pledged to counter terrorist threats by incorporating biometics into travel documents, increasing controls at Europe's external borders, developing intelligence-led policing and enhancing judicial cooperation. This new spirit of cooperation was evident most recently in the decision of a Belgian court, February 18th to turn over to Spain, a Moroccan, Youssef Belhadj, suspected of assisting those responsible for the March 11 attack. Spanish investigators believe Belhadj was the al Qaeda spokesman on a video tape claiming responsibility for the attack. But Europe still has a long way to go to give real meaning to these very general principles. This is particularly the case when it comes to information and intelligence sharing.

Javier Solana, the EU Commissioner charged with overseeing EU foreign policy has been charged with developing recommendations on how to develop an EU intelligence capacity. His recommendations are to form the basis of further discussions at the June 2005 EU summit. Austria and Belgium reportedly favor a new European CIA, while France, Germany and the United Kingdom oppose such an idea. They are wary about sharing sensitive intelligence within the broader and expanding EU community. France is pushing an alternative suggestion that would enhance ties between the various intelligence services. This could include various networks including a special network linking the intelligence services of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

Another suggestion up for review is the idea of a Special European Prosecutor's Office that could handle the investigation and prosecution of terrorism and trans-border crimes. For the present the EU relies on an mechanism known as Euro-Just which periodically brings together representatives from the various national prosecutors offices to discuss common problems. One suggestion being pushed by a group of activist European non-governmental organizations is the establishment of a new Super Euro-just that would have increased transnational investigative and judicial powers. It would include investigators assigned from each member country and maintain branches in each country. However, national investigations would remain largely within the hands of national authorities.

Concerns also remain in Europe regarding the ease with which terrorists can travel across Europe � an unintended consequence of the Schengen open borders program. Schengen members have so-far resisted pressures to adopt new procedures to better protect Europe's internal borders, or to take-on new terrorist tracking responsibilities. These functions have been deferred to Europol.

Beyond Europe, it is clear that enhanced cooperation is also required between Europe and the United States. But efforts to foster closer US-EU counterterrorism and law enforcement cooperation have met with serious difficulties. There continues to be a basic lack of trust between US and EU investigative, intelligence, police, and judicial authorities. The US side has always preferred to pick and choose between various European national counterpart organizations, rather than deal more broadly with Eurojust or Europol. New thinking must be devoted to this issue.

Madrid will host a special Summit on Security, Terrorism, and Democracy March 8-11, 2005 to commemorate the March 11th attack. The Madrid Summit, a non-partisan event, will bring together over 400 government leaders, policy makers and practitioners to commemorate the victims of the Madrid bombings and to develop a common strategy to confront terrorism in all its forms through democratic means. In preparation for the Summit, some fifteen working groups -- made up of nearly 200 leading experts on terrorism and democracy -- have been debating four key facets of this challenge: 1) causes and underlying factors of terrorism, 2) confronting terrorism, 3) a democratic response to terrorism, and 4) civil society's role. Perhaps this can also provide an opportunity for like-minded countries to futher deepen cooperation and information sharing arrangements between them.

Steven Emerson: AP is Biased and Conflicted in Reporting on Palestinians

By Steven Emerson

An Associated Press story on Saturday (text below) reveals the sleight of hand in its reporting. This was as close to a press release for the Palestinians as I ever seen by the AP. But no surprise - the AP has a special relationship with the Palestinians which biases their reporting, as I will explain below. First, four points about the article:

1. The headline and story suggest a unanimity of Palestinian "anger" over the bombing, an assessment that the reporter could not possibly have ascertained.

2. The AP maintains the charade that there is universal Palestinian anger over the attack by uncritically reporting the nonsensical comment by Abbas that even "the prisoners" (i.e., Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons) were "outraged" by the attack.

3. The height of the reporter's lunacy is the paragraph starting with "If a Palestinian group were found to be responsible..." IF? Who are to we believe carried this out? An invisible suicide bomber beamed into Tel Aviv from Beirut? Moreover, Islamic Jihad released a video claiming responsibility for the attack.

4. Finally and not least, see the last paragraph. In order to show Palestinian "moderation" this time, the reporter cites the absence of celebrations as previously occurring in "dozens of other suicide bombings." Excuse me, but when did AP substantively report these celebrations in the past?

For years, it has been a dirty little secret that the Associated Press reporting from the West Bank and Gaza has been intellectually and professionally corrupt. The AP has been guilty of committing scores of DanRather-gates for years. As Andrew Cochran noted here on January 18, the AP's Muhammad Daraghmeh also works for the official PA news organ, as have numerous other so-called "journalists" whose obvious biases are never disclosed by the mainstream press. Will someone finally wake up?

This Week in Congress: Multiple Hearings

By Andrew Cochran

This is the busiest week so far this year for Congressional hearings on terrorist-related subjects, including the first round of important hearings on proposed budgets for fiscal year 2006, which starts on October 1. I'll post several of the most pertinent in the "Events" box, but here is the entire schedule, to the best of my knowledge, in a Microsoft Word document. I included any public hearing in which terrorist and counterterrorist activity might be discussed, including hearings on Defense Department budgets and issues.

Steven Emerson Interview: Militant Islam Misleads and Endangers Europe, U.S.

By Andrew Cochran

In November, Investigative Project Executive Director Steven Emerson spent a week in Berlin as the guest of the American Academy and gave briefings to German policy and government officials. Mr. Emerson was interviewed by the German newspaper "Die Welt" about the terrorist threat posed by radical Islam in the West, and in particular the problems the West has in confronting it. In it he noted that Western countries have acted against the threat only after a violent act, such as the 9-11 attacks in the U.S., the Madrid train bombings, or the Van Gogh murder in the Netherlands. He stressed that the conflict is "not necessarily with Islam as a whole - but with the militant Islam." He called for a multi-step process for defeating Islamic terrorism, including "academic centers for the moderate Islam," and he predicted a long war against the enemy. The full text is below.

Bosnia Remains a Terrorist Shadow Land

By Douglas Farah

Like so many places that once riveted the world, Bosnia is now off the policy map and its brutal war largely forgotten. But as Evan Kohlmann has described so well, it was also the great al Qaeda experiment in Europe in the years immediately after the Afghan war.

After spending a week in the region exchanging information with people who track these issues, it is clear that Bosnia, while not on the policy radar screen, retains great attraction for the terrorist network and remains a crossroads for the Jihadi worldwide movement. Some, it appears, are seeking to penetrate Europe (and possibly the United States), others may be using Bosnia and surrounding states as way stations on the way to Iraq. There are also radicals with strong ties to Iran, who govern their own banks and control security forces, often the elite troops of now-disappeared state armies. Because of its geographic location and European ties, Bosnia offers many things to a terrorist network.

Much of the government and those of the surrounding states that once comprised Yugoslovia are greatly influenced by different organized criminal networks that have a hand in fuel deliveries, electricity, banking, and other economic activities. Yet the region enjoys much better communications facilities than, say, a failed state such as Liberia. It also has remnants of the Muslim population sympathetic to jihad and its supporters from the early 1990s. Couple this with a thriving trade in false passports and other identification cards that allow one to travel to a host of countries without a visa, and it becomes clear why Bosnia and surrounding states poses a continuing challenge on the radical Muslim front. Click here for the rest of the blog.

New Statements and Video from Al-Qaida in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in Mesopotamia--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has issued several new statements and video recordings claiming credit for various bomb attacks on U.S. forces in central Iraq and for the assassination of local Iraqi government officials.

- Feb. 26 claim for the murder of the Interior Ministry Chief
- Feb. 26 claim for the murder of a municipal council leader
- Feb. 26 report of the "martyrdom" of Abu Anas al-Tuhami
- Feb. 26 video of roadside bomb attack on a U.S. Humvee
- Feb. 26 video of suicide bomb attack on U.S. tanks
- Feb. 27 response to alleged arrest of a Zarqawi aide in Iraq

Syria's Gestures. Will They Last?

By Michael Kraft

By Michel Kraft

The press reports that Syrian officials captured and turnover to Iraqi authorities the half brother of Saddam Hussein and more than two dozen former Baathists, are another sign of the zigzag tight- rope walking policies of the Syrian leadership.

The capture of Subawi Abraham al-Assam was described by Iraqi sources as a good will gesture, according to the Associated Press. Even if the reports turn out to be overstated, they have the earmarks of what passes for a charm offensive by Syria on the eve of meetings with American officials. Just last week Syria said � without specifying a date -- that it will withdraw some of its troops from Lebanon.

The Return of Fateh Kamel

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The National Post reports that one of Canada's most notorious terrorists, Fateh Kamel, has returned home to Montreal as a free man following a four-year stint in a French prison.

Kamel has an impressive terrorist CV.  After fighting in both the Afghan and Bosnian wars, Kamel became the head of a Montreal-based terrorist cell that was part of the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA) but "also developed close links to bin Laden's al-Qaeda network."  A document from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service explains that Kamel "played a central role in the wave of terrorist attacks that erupted in France toward the middle of the 1990s, notably the plot to commit bomb attacks in Paris metro stations and a series of attacks in the city of Roubaix, in northern France."  The Post states that Kamel also travelled through Europe with a right-hand man named Karim Said Atmani, who "ran a ring that committed low-level crimes such as cellular phone thefts to raise money for their militant activities."  Another member of the GIA-linked Groupe Fateh Kamel was Ahmed Ressam, who was convicted in the millennium bombing plot to blow up LAX.  Kamel was eventually imprisoned by a French court for "participating in a criminal association for the purposes of preparing acts of terrorism," and for providing fake passports to Islamic militants.  Although Kamel was sentenced to eight years in prison, he was released after only four years for good behavior.

Peter McKay, deputy leader of the Conservative Party, argues that the Canadian government should revoke Kamel's citizenship.  He comments, "By all means we should be examining revocation, and certainly there is cause for the Canadian government, for our officials, to examine whether he was truthful at the time of his entry into this country."

One question:  How in the world did Kamel end up spending a mere four years in prison?

Arab Bank Hit by Federal Regulator, But Will Bombing Victims Get Any Justice?

By Andrew Cochran

The Arab Bank, which is the subject of lawsuits over its role as a conduit for terrorists' funds used to kill Americans and Israelis, has been hit with an order by the Treasury Department's OCC, forcing it to cease most of its funds transfer operations and not accept any new deposits. Contributing Expert Lee Wolosky, who serves as Special Counsel on the lawsuits, posted earlier about the Arab Bank's unexpected withdrawal from the U.S. and the ample evidence incriminating the bank. For instance, the families of homicide bombers responsible for the August 2001 Jerusalem pizzeria attack and the June 2001 Tel Avib disco attack received payments of approximately $5300, paid by Arab Bank as part of an alleged payment program for families of "martyrs," using the facilities of the New York branch.

But will Arab Bank actually have to pay for what the OCC calls "unsafe and unsound practices," which were clearly unsafe to those innocent victims of the bombers? The plaintiffs in the lawsuit remain concerned that the OCC enforcement action will still allow Arab Bank to walk away without payment. This gap in financial laws should be addressed by Congress this year, before we find more "Arab Banks" that walk away from their responsiblities.

More Border Failures: MS-13 Leader Arrested Numerous Times in U.S.

By Andrew Cochran

It's a good thing that the House Judiciary Committee has scheduled a hearing on the Border Patrol's funding for next Thursday - the failures continue to mount. Yesterday we linked to a story on the arrest of Ebert Anibal Rivera, head of the MS-13 gang in Honduras, in Texas on Tuesday. Today we find out that Rivera, leader of one of the worst gangs in the Western Hemisphere, who is wanted in Honduras in connection with the massacre of 28 people, has been arrested in California at least eight times since 2001!! And these weren't traffic stops: try robbery (3 TIMES), burglary, and bad checks!! Hopefully the Congress, starting at this hearing, can start identifying and plugging the leaky law enforcement information system that has allowed this career criminal (actually, terrorist) to enter and leave our country time and time again.

Al-Qaida Claims New Attacks on Americans in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in Mesopotamia--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released several statements and   a video recording claiming credit for a new round of ambushes, bombings, and suicide attacks in Baghdad, Fallujah, Mosul, and Tel Afar.  Al-Qaida's Media Wing  has further accused Western media sources of reducing their reporting on recent Al-Qaida attacks in Iraq as part of a deliberate propaganda campaign to silence the truth about the ongoing conflict in Sunni central Iraq.

- Feb. 23 response to mainstream media silence on new Al-Qaida attacks
- Feb. 24 video of roadside bomb attack on U.S. convoy in Al-Yusifiyya

UN's 661 Committee Never Saw the OIO Audits of the Oil For Food Program

By Victor Comras

The UN Spokesman stated February 24th that the Secretariat had never turned over to the 661 Committee any of the Oil For Food Audit Reports prepared by the Office of Internal Oversight. The 661 Committee, composed of Security Council Members, was the body responsible for administering and overseeing the sanctions on Iraq. The group also was charged with setting out Oil for Food policies and procedures, and for approving Iraqi oil contracts and the sale of humanitarian goods to Iraq. What is troubling is that the 661 Committee, and its members, long knew of the abuses taking place under the Oil for Food program and apparently expressed no interest in receiving and reviewing these audit reports.

Clues to Abu Ali's Al-Qaida Contacts in Saudi Arabia

By Evan Kohlmann

The latest USDOJ filing in the case of Ahmed Omar Abu Ali offers tantalizing clues as to the alleged identity of his Al-Qaida contacts in Saudi Arabia.  According to the document:

"Between in or around September 2002 and on or about June 9, 2003, the defendant joined a clandestine al-Qaeda cell in Saudi Arabia... The defendant discussed plans for assassinating President of the United States George W. Bush with a member of the al-Qaeda cell (identified in the Indictment as Coconspirator #2).  Specifically, the defendant and Coconspirator #2 discussed two options for assassinating the President: (1) an operation in which the defendant would get close enough to the President to shoot him on the street; and (2) an operation in which the defendant would detonate a car bomb... The government proffers that Coconspirator #2 later was killed in a shoot-out with Saudi law enforcement authorities in or around September 2003."

This last detail narrows the field considerably as to the identity of Co-Conspirator #2.  That September, there was only one shoot-out of note between Saudi security forces and Al-Qaida members wanted for their involvement in the May 2003 suicide bombings in Riyadh...

Justice Department's Newest Abu Ali Filing

By Andrew Cochran

HERE is the Justice Department's filing yesterday in the Abu Ali case, a motion for the court to detain Abu Ali without bond "on the grounds that he presents an exceptionally grave danger to the community and a serious risk of flight." Some points: Abu Ali's conspirator in Bush assassination plot "was killed in a shoot-out with Saudi law enforcement authorities in or around September 2003." He held a secret Jordanian passport and is also a Jordanian citizen. He received training in weapons, explosives, and document forgery from an al Qaeda cell in Saudi Arabia and possessed, in his Virginia home, a document praising Mullah Omar and describing the WTC as "the source of providing $5 Billion in annual aid to Israel." The motion also asserts that Abu Ali never claimed he was tortured when he had numerous opportunities to do so to American authorities.

Terror from Tehran

By Matthew Levitt

U.S. intelligence chiefs appearing before Congress last week in their annual statements on the state of the threat reiterated, as they have for many years, that Iran is the foremost state sponsor of terror. Indeed, the threat posed by Iranian-sponsored terror is multifaceted.

Iranian-sponsored terror represents the single greatest threat to Israeli-Arab peace. Additionally, not only does Iran support the terrorist activity of groups such as Hizballah and Hamas, but Iranian intelligence operatives themselves are directly involved in terrorist activity. Elements of al-Qaeda and the global jihadist movement are tied to Iran, while both Iranian intelligence agents and surrogates are actively undermining U.S. interests in stabilizing Iraq. It is therefore critical that the international effort to rein in Iran's nuclear weapons program include an equally concerted effort to forestall its state sponsorship of terrorism.

To read more, see Policywatch #964, "Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror: Threatening U.S. Security, Global Stability, and Regional Peace."

Recent Additions: Good Sites and Documents

By Andrew Cochran

Dak Bangla is a very good site for news on terrorism in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and other parts of South Asia. Northeast Intelligence Network and Terrorism Unveiled have supplied terrific news items and ideas for this blog. Dutch Report has all the latest from what has become the hottest area in Europe - it took the Van Gogh murder to awaken the Dutch to Islamic extremism there. United States Action also has a great set of forums, and I want to thank USA's Jeffrey Imm for sending me numerous wire stories for posting here. Now in the Library: I saved the recent Washington Institute report on U.S. Middle East policy, and just today saved the list of Iraq's 29 most wanted. Thanks to all readers for your support and suggestions.

Al-Qaida in Iraq Claims Rocket Attack on U.S. Base

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in Mesopotamia--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released a new video recording allegedly depicting a February 21 rocket attack on a U.S. base near Fallujah known as "The Farm."  While previous Al-Qaida videos from Iraq have largely focused on suicide bombing attacks, this latest release is one of a series of new videos from Al-Qaida that depict less sensational rocket and mortar launches on U.S. military forces.  This may be part of a deliberate propaganda effort to draw attention away from unpopular terrorist atrocities that have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of innocent Iraqi Muslims.

Click to view video c/o Globalterroralert.com

Kuwaiti Al-Qaida Emissary Reported Killed in the Caucasus

By Evan Kohlmann

Islamic militants fighting in the Caucasus  have reported the death of Abu Omar al-Kuwaiti, a prominent military commander in the Islamic Army of the Caucasus (led by Shamil Basayev).  Russian sources have alleged that Abu Omar served as a key Al-Qaida emissary in Chechnya at the behest of Shamil Basayev and senior Jordanian commander Abu Hafs al-Urdani.  Abu Omar blew himself up in an underground bunker in neighboring Ingushetia on February 16 after the facility was surrounded by pro-Moscow security forces.

Click to view report from Globalterroralert.com...

BIOTERRORISM: THE NOBLE WARNING

By Michael Kraft

By Michael B. Kraft

The warning by Interpol Secretary General Ronald K. Noble that the world is ill prepared for a biological terrorist attack reflects the growing effort to sound the alarm in the third world as well as developed countries. Mr. Noble, a former U.S. Treasury Under Secretary, made his remarks in a BBC interview given as part of the run-up to the first Interpol Conference on Preventing Bio-Terrorism, to be held in Lyon, France on March 1 and 2. Nearly 400 delegates are expected to attend, including police commissioners from a number of major cities.

Ahmed Omar Abu Ali and the Visa Waiver Program

By Michael Cutler

Today the New York Times described Ahmed Omar Abu Ali as being a citizen of the United States, having been born in Houston, Texas. Clearly immigration law enforcement issues are not relevant in his case. However, his case raises a disturbing issue. Mr. Ali is a United States citizen and bears an apparent relationship with Al Qaeda and his terror-driven goals. It is safe to assume that there are other individuals living in other countries who are similarly related to Al Qaeda but who acquired citizenship in countries that participate in the Visa Waiver program, either by being born in those countries or by having been naturalized. There are 27 such countries plus Canada. This is why, given the on-going "War on terror" the Visa Waiver program needs to be terminated to provide our officials better opportunities to more effectively screen aliens who seek admission into the United States.

There is an additional reason that the Visa Waiver program is problematic. Recently enacted legislation increases the penalties for visa fraud where drug trafficking and terrorism are concerned. Aliens who enter the United States under the auspices of the Visa Waiver program can not be prosecuted for committing visa fraud, a weapon that has traditionally been effective tools in the "War on drugs" as well as the "war on terror." Finally, American citizens in the United States seeking to board airplanes, trains and sensitive buildings come under greater scrutiny for security reasons. Aliens seeking entry into our nation should also face appropriate scrutiny to help ensure our safety. The risks are far to great to ignore this issue.

What Value UN Designation? Not Much When It Comes to Ahmed Idris Nasreddin!

By Victor Comras

Ahmed Idris Nasreddin, and his international business interests, continues to provide a shameful example of the ineffective application of UN measures to curb terrorism financing. Nasreddin was identified and designated by the US Treasury Department and the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee in August 2002 as a financial supporter of Al Qaeda. This designation placed an international legal obligation on all countries to freeze his assets and economic resources and to ensure that no funds, financial assets or other economic resouces were made available to him, or for his benefit. All Countries were also required to prevent his entry into or his transit through their territories. see UN Security Council Resolution 1526 (2004).. These designations also listed a number of Nasreddin's business interests. The funds and resources of these entities were also to be frozen. But, despite these restrictions little has been done to put him out of business. A few of his bank accounts were frozen, notably in Switzerland, but no further steps were taken to close down any of his business activities. He continues to operate numerous companies and business ventures in Europe (including holding company ownership of a major tourist hotel in Milan) and around the world. And he continues to travel with little or no hindrence. This has already been the findings of official report documents and numerous investigative press reports. See for example the the December 2003 Report of the UN Monitoring Group and the March 2004 Newsweek article "Nobody's Nagging." Unfortunately, these reports have produced no new action against him or any of his business enterprises. In fact, the Italian Magistrate investigating his activities was recently assigned to other responsibilities. Nasreddin continues to practice his international business trade successfully and openly. A recent example is the further expansion of his business activities in Northern Nigeria. He continues to serve as chairman of the NASCO Group with its headquaters in Jos, Nigeria. The NASCO Group website proclaims a whole of activites.

According to the website, "NASCO GROUP (Nigeria) is one of the largest conglomerates in Nigeria producing & selling consumer products like Detergents, Biscuits, Carpets, etc. It is a division of NASCO INTERNATIONAL, which operates in Europe, Africa, Middle east and Asia." A recent Nigerian press article highlighted "Dr. Nasreddin's" growing business activities in Nigeria, including land development and housing construction. In fact, a suburb of Jos has been named NASCO TOWN, with a principal street bearing the Nasreddin name.

Unless the International Community can put "some teeth" into the UN al Qaeda sanctions measures it is unlikely to have the intended impact of detering others from contributing to al Qaeda's cause.

Defendant Ahmed Omar Abu Ali: Some Interesting Details

By Andrew Cochran

A December 16, 2004 decision by U.S. District Court Judge John Bates includes some interesting facts about Abu Ali: He is apparently associated with the "Virginia paintball" case, in which two men, Randall Royer and Ibrahim al-Hamdi were convicted for their participation in what prosecutors called a "Virginia jihad network." Royer and al Hamdi received long prison terms; seven others pleaded guilty or were convicted in that case, and two were acquitted at trial. Abu Ali might have known defendants in the Royer case; he and three of the Royer defendants were arrested in June 2003 in Saudi Arabia, where he was held there at the request of the FBI until just recently. The Royer gang used the paintball games as training for jihad in Pakistan as part of the militant Lashkar-e-Taiba group there. The grand jury in the Royer case considered Abu Ali's involvement in it and didn't indict him. Abu Ali's father works at the Saudi Embassy, but his connections there failed to spring his son during his 18+ months in Saudi Arabia, during which he was tortured by Saudi police. At various points, the FBI and State Department tried to make a deal for his release, but each attempt fell through.

Bush Assassination Plot by al Qaeda suspect? UPDATE: Indictment Link

By Andrew Cochran

Fox News: American citizen who had been detained in Saudi Arabia as suspected terrorist charged Tuesday with conspiring to assassinate President Bush and with supporting the Al Qaeda terrorist network. Ahmed Omar Abu Ali made initial appearance in U.S. District Court but did not enter a plea. Federal indictment says (quoting Fox story) "that in 2002 and 2003 Abu Ali and an unidentified co-conspirator discussed plans for Abu Ali to assassinate Bush. They discussed two scenarios, the indictment said, one in which Abu Ali 'would get close enough to the president to shoot him on the street' and, alternatively, 'an operation in which Abu Ali would detonate a car bomb.'" This is the same Abu Ali who was the subject of a Wash Post story indicating that the feds hoped that Saudi Arabia would hold him for fear of disclosing sensitive information. This will be interesting to watch. UPDATE: Fox News has the indictment.

Afghanistan: A New Warning

By Michael Kraft

By Michael Kraft

Remember Afghanistan? A new United Nations report warns that the country that had become a major haven for international terrorists could again become a trouble spot if more is not done to improve the security and economy of the backward nation. That should be no surprise, except that news from Afghanistan has been overshadowed by the reports of violence from the newest terrorist haven, Iraq.

Probably by coincidence, the report by the United Nations Development Program was released Monday the same day that reports from Ottawa said that Canada plans to send 250 additional troops and civilian experts to Afghanistan�s Kandahar region.

Al-Zawahiri Continues Appeal to Gullible Westerners

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Yesterday, al-Jazeera aired a videotape purporting to show a new address from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.  In this new videotape, al-Zawahiri argues that the U.S.'s "new crusade is doomed to fail," and that it will lead to "tens of thousands of fallen victims and the destruction of your economy."  Al-Zawahiri also states, "Real security is based on mutual cooperation with the Islamic nation on the basis of mutual respect and the stopping of aggression."

Al-Zawahiri's statement mirrors the language that he used in a videotape that he released to al-Jazeera on November 29, in which he stated, "You must choose between two ways of dealing with Muslims -- either on the basis of respect and mutual interests, or treating them as if they were legitimate spoils, pillaged lands, and permissible sacrilege.  This is your problem, and you have to make your own choice."  Al-Zawahiri's suggestion in both yesterday's tape and the November tape that the United States could deal with al-Qaeda based on respect and mutual interests is complemented by the videotape that Osama bin Laden released on October 29, just before the election, in which he urged Westerners to "look for [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again."

I noted last year that both bin Laden's October 29 tape and also al-Zawahiri's November 29 tape constituted a new rhetorical strategy designed to appeal to certain factions within the West.  Here are a few key points from my earlier articles that should be kept in mind:

Border "Minutemen" - The Sure Sign of Failure

By Andrew Cochran

Up to 500 volunteers are signing up to for something called the "Minutemen Project" to patrol a 40-mile stretch of the Arizona broder. These are ordinary citizens, organized by a decorated Vietnam vet, who are sick and tired of seeing thousands of illegal aliens, with terrorists probably among them, waltz through our Swiss-cheese border. Historically, volunteer law enforcement (I don't like the term "vigilante") has always been the sure sign of the failure of the official law enforcement system to deal with a virus of illegal activity. The Bush Administration and Congress should not blame the good citizenry of Arizona for taking upon themselves the task for which we pay with our tax dollars. The proposed increase of just over 200 Border Patrol agents is too little and almost too late.

Touching the Hezbollah Nerve

By Matthew Levitt

Last week I wrote a Policywatch for The Washington Institute calling for the EU to ban Hezbollah (see Policywatch #958, Ban Hizballah in Europe).

In response, Jihad al-Khazen, a senior editor and author of an opinion column with the Arabic daily al-Hayat, wrote a column calling me a "Likudnik" for the audacity of calling Hezbollah at terrorist group. Al-Khazen has written several such columns in response to my analyses, including one in which he argued that the Damascus office of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (and its leader, Ramadan Shallah) could not possibly be a terrorist organizaiton as I had argued, because Ramadan Shallah - a "personal friend" - told him so. Al-Khazen's column clearing Hezbollah's good name can be found here.

While their substantive arguments are shallow enough and are easily rebutted, Arab intellectuals like al-Khazen cannot themselves be written off as easily. The reason is that the Arab masses can hardly be expected to support efforts to deligimitze the use of terror against civilians to achieve political goals when their most respected journalists and intellectuals act as apologists for any act of violence carried out in the name of an otherwise legitimate goal. Consider this just one more example highlighting the need to better engage in the battle of ideas, or strategic counterterrorism, even as we continue tactical counterterrorism operations aimed at rolling up cells, siezing funds and arresting or killing operatives.

Well, if my recent brief on Hezbollah and the EU got under Jihad al-Khazen's skin, he's going to love my chapter on "Hezbollah Finances: Funding the Party of God," available now on The Washington Institute's website and due to be published as part of the project "Terrorism Financing and State Responses in Comparative Perspective," sponsored by the Center for Homeland Defense and Security at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Monterey, California. This paper and others will be published in a forthcoming volume edited by NPS's Jeanne Giraldo and Harold Trinkunas.

PDB Wars Part II: Back to the Future

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

Changes in how the PDB was vetted and produced go a long way to explain some of the recent intelligence failures. These changes began during the Clinton Administration and have continued in the Bush Administration. Before Clinton and W, when CIA analysts did current production they were focused principally on writing articles for the National Intelligence Daily (aka the NID). The decision to write a NID piece was the same as the PDB process. In fact, it was the decision to write a NID piece that usually led to the decision to include a variant of the NID piece in the PDB. In those days (the good old days) analysts at CIA had to coordinate their analysis with analysts from DIA, INR and NSA. That is not the case today. On occasion the disagreements would be deep and a dissent would be published alongside the original piece to let the senior policymakers know that there were other views on some of these matters.

Back in the good old days other agencies could submit pieces for the PDB, which National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) assigned to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and senior analysts were allowed to comment on. Not now.

Back in the good old days NIOs used to see NID and PDB drafts before they were published. This was to ensure that other agency views were at least considered. Not now.

This is not to say that old PDB and NIDs were always better than what the President sees today, but this process ensured that the President had the views that represented the best analysis of the entire intelligence community, even if drafted primarily by one agency. Not now.

The failure to encourage and tolerate dissent was a major reason for the flawed October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that grossly exaggerated the WMD threat in Iraq. If the NIC had taken the dissents on the WMD paper seriously, for example, it would not have been so disastrously wrong.

Assuming he is approved, Negroponte does not have to create a great big bureaucracy. He just has to get a handful of smart people -- a rejuvenated, cleaned-up NIC perhaps -- and have them coordinate the product. That would help compensate for the weaknesses or vulnerabilities or prejudices or whatever of any particular agency.

Iranian Preparation for U.S. Attack

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In a Friday interview, President Bush stated that diplomacy -- and not the use of force -- is America's first choice in dealing with Iran's apparent quest to obtain nuclear weapons:  "Listen, first of all, you never want a president to say 'never.'  But military action is certainly not -- it's never the president's first choice.  Diplomacy is always the president's first -- at least my first choice."  And one obvious reason that diplomacy will be the U.S.'s first choice in dealing with Iran is that, with battles raging in both Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. troops are quite simply overstretched.

Despite this, Iran has been making a point of mobilizing for a possible U.S. attack.  An article in yesterday's Washington Times discusses Iranian preparations:

• Iran has announced that it's "making plans to engage in the type of 'asymmetrical' warfare used against American troops in neighboring Iraq."
• "In recent days, Iranian newspapers have announced efforts to increase the number of the country's 7-million-strong 'Basiji' militia forces, which were deployed in human wave attacks against Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s."
• "Iranian military authorities have paraded long-range North Korean-designed Shahab missiles before television cameras."
• Iran announced the largest war games in the country's history in December, "deploying 120,000 troops as well as tanks, helicopters and armored vehicles along its western border."