Likely Culprits Behind Bombing of Former Lebanese Prime Minister

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

Today's bomb blast in Lebanon, which killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, is a harbinger that a peaceful, democratic transition of Governments in the Middle East is a foolish pipe dream. Hariri, aka Fatso, has been a long time pawn of Saudi Arabia and a favorite of both Washington and Paris. His murder comes against the backdrop of increased pressure by the United States and France to force Syria to withdraw its military forces from Lebanon. This car bombing was probably designed to send an unambiguous message to both Lebanese and the international community that Syria will not stand idly by and surrender to pressures from Washington, Paris, and the United Nations. Hariri, who had been staying on the sidelines in recent months as political parties in Lebanon jockeyed for position in upcoming parliamentary elections, was a convenient and potent symbol of a Lebanese power broker perceived as too close and too accommodating of Western desires. His killers are providing a simple message, Syria will not leave Lebanon without a fight and Damascus is willing to destroy Lebanon in order to save itself.

The road to today's bombing was built starting last September when Damascus changed the Lebanese constitution to extend the mandate of President Emile Lahoud. According to press reports, "the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, had stunned the Lebanese politicians he summoned to Damascus by telling them: I alone have the right to choose the president of Lebanon." Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri resigned in protest.

Syrian intervention also did not sit well with several other Lebanese political factions, including one controlled by Walid Jumblatt. Three ministers loyal to Jumblatt , including the minister of economy, Marwan Hamade, resigned in protest. A few weeks later Hamade narrowly escaped assassination when 15 kg of military explosives detonated under his limousine. His bodyguard, who was sitting in Hamade's usual seat in the back of the car, was killed instantly.

Syria clearly has felt under siege partly as a result of US pressure on Damascus. In recent months a variety of politicians and journalists spoke out against Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Pressure in the press and media, including from a newspaper owned by Hariri, has escalated and opposition groups have become emboldened to challenge Syrian authority. Washington has been threatening to impose more severe economic sanctions. In addition, the Iraqi election, which was dominated by Shia elements favorable to Syrian interests, almost certainly left Damascus feeling emboldened to go after its enemies, perceived and real.

Prior to today's bombing, some poltical analysts believed that the opposition groups were poised to secure sufficient seats in the Lebanese parliament that would effectively curtail Syria's monopoly over Lebanese politics. Now the calculus has changed. The Syrians have thrown down the guantlet and sent an unambiguous warning--oppose Syrias influence in Lebanon at your own risk.

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