Counterterrorism Blog

Yesterday, al-Jazeera aired a videotape purporting to show a new address from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.  In this new videotape, al-Zawahiri argues that the U.S.'s "new crusade is doomed to fail," and that it will lead to "tens of thousands of fallen victims and the destruction of your economy."  Al-Zawahiri also states, "Real security is based on mutual cooperation with the Islamic nation on the basis of mutual respect and the stopping of aggression."

Al-Zawahiri's statement mirrors the language that he used in a videotape that he released to al-Jazeera on November 29, in which he stated, "You must choose between two ways of dealing with Muslims -- either on the basis of respect and mutual interests, or treating them as if they were legitimate spoils, pillaged lands, and permissible sacrilege.  This is your problem, and you have to make your own choice."  Al-Zawahiri's suggestion in both yesterday's tape and the November tape that the United States could deal with al-Qaeda based on respect and mutual interests is complemented by the videotape that Osama bin Laden released on October 29, just before the election, in which he urged Westerners to "look for [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again."

I noted last year that both bin Laden's October 29 tape and also al-Zawahiri's November 29 tape constituted a new rhetorical strategy designed to appeal to certain factions within the West.  Here are a few key points from my earlier articles that should be kept in mind:

• Bin Laden's first real attempt to inject the possibility of peace with the West into his rhetoric came back in April 2004, after the Madrid bombings, when he offered a truce to European countries who withdrew their forces from Iraq.
• Both bin Laden and al-Zawahiri emphasize the drastic consequences to the West of refusing to deal with al-Qaeda on the basis of mutual respect.  In his pre-election tape, for example, bin Laden stated that "just as you lay waste to our Nation, so shall we lay waste to yours."
• In his new rhetoric that holds out the prospect of peace, bin Laden "places his finger on issues that have some traction in the West.  In particular, some factions in the West are attracted to the idea that -- as bin Laden suggests -- selling Israel up the river and adopting a policy of non-intervention in the Middle East would guarantee us security."
• Although bin Laden touches on some issues that have traction in the West, he hasn't yet attracted very many people to the idea of negotiating with al-Qaeda.  There are, however, some exceptions.  For example, Britain's former Northern Ireland Secretary Mo Mowlam has called on Western powers to open talks with bin Laden, describing our current approach as "completely counter-productive."  Asked if she could imagine "al-Qaeda and bin Laden arriving at the negotiating table," Mowlam stated, "You have to do that.  If you do not you condemn large parts of the world to war forever."  Other exceptions include former Illinois Senator Paul Findley and Professor John Arquilla of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
• Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri are being deceptive in dangling the prospects of peace before their Western listeners.  My short explanation:  "Such a strategy would not, in fact, guarantee us security because it conflates bin Laden's short-term grievances with his long-term goals.  Al-Qaeda was founded with the explicit goal of re-establishing the caliphate, a Muslim super-state encompassing the entire Islamic world that would be primed for perpetual conflict with the West.  Bin Laden's caliphate would be ruled according to the strict version of shariah law typified by the Taliban, where homosexuals and those preaching non-Islamic faiths were executed, women were kept in burkas, and men were imprisoned if their beards were not long enough.  Accommodation is a trap because withdrawing from the Middle East would make the attainment of such an Islamist super-state -- and the greater danger it would pose -- more likely."  For the long version of this argument, click here.

Al-Zawahiri's new tape fits the pattern of the two earlier al-Qaeda tapes, as it both suggests the possibility of "cooperation . . . on the basis of mutual respect and the stopping of aggression," and also threatens tens of thousands of victims and the destruction of the U.S. economy if the United States does not agree to this cooperation.  Al-Qaeda's leadership has selected their talking points.  We'll see if more Westerners end up falling for it.