Chaos in Iraq Fuels Worry among Persian Gulf Neighbors

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

Extended discussions during the last two months with political and security officials from Persian Gulf States reveals a growing nervousness about the failure of the United States to contain the insurgency in Iraq. Our friends worry that we are creating a situation akin to that produced by the Soviet Union when it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. The Soviet invasion ignited a jihadist passion that spread thru the Islamic world. That passion fueled the group responsible for the 9-11 attacks. Today our friends in the Persian Gulf see the images of US soldiers entering Iraqi homes and the rising death toll among the Iraqi civilian population as providing new grist for the jihadist mill of hatred. They have told me they are seeing levels of unrest and militant activity that are scaring the hell out of them. The recent attacks in Qatar and Kuwait inflame their concern.

Despite happy talk from Washington about the amazing success of the January 30 elections, our friends are reading accounts reporting that there was a deliberate effort backed by the United States to steal the election. Moreover, they see very clearly that there is still no Government in place that reflects the results of the election. You cannot continu to call something a success while the insurgents continue their attacks. In fact the Iraqi insurgents have shifted their attacks from US military targets to hitting Iraqis sympathetic to the United States and its coalition partners.

Our friends in the Persian Gulf want to see effective security put in place in Iraq. But, as reported in today's Washington Post, US troops are spending more time in garrison and less time on patrol. With fewer patrols insurgents have an easier time of moving about the country to collect intelligence, to recruit new fighters, to provide training for fighters, and to expand logistic networks to support the insurgents. The key to defeating an insurgency is convincing the local population that the Government is more powerful and more effective than the insurgents. Don't take my word for it, just ask Lord Cornwallis about the smashing success of the British counter insurgency operation in the American Colonies 226 years ago.

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