"Constructive Instability" in Lebanon and Syria
By Matthew Levitt
The Bush Administration’s policy of “constructive instability” in the Middle East is facing a critical juncture in Lebanon. Taking advantage of a rare confluence of events and international interests, President George W. Bush has focused U.S. efforts on one plank of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559—the withdrawal of Syrian forces—as the first order of business.
Defining the next steps requires a policy mix of persistence and incrementalism, identifying and pursuing high-priority, short-term goals, the very achievement of which will lay the foundation for the next set of objectives. These include monitoring Lebanese elections, disarming Hezbollah, and dealing with potential instability in Syria.
Also critical is an understanding of the utility and limits of regional instability, the uniqueness of Lebanon and Syria within the context of other regional developments, and the need to promote true democrats, not just democracy.
These issues are explored in detail in a two-part Policywatch analysis by Robert Satloff. Part one, focused on constructive instability in the context of Lebanon and Syria, can be found here. Part two, on the reginal implications of a policy of constructive instability, can be found here.
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