Counterterrorism Blog

In a visit to Manila this week, Adm. William Fallon, head of the US Pacific Command, raised the issue of designating the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). The links between the MILF and Jemaah Islamiyah, a regional affiliate of Al Qaeda that is responsible for three major terrorist attacks in Indonesia since October 2002, are clear and convincing. MILF offered JI training facilities in its camps in the 1990s; and several hundred JI members were trained by Al Qaeda operatives including Omar al-Faruq, Omar Al-Hadrani and al-Mughira al-Gaza’iri. The number of Indonesians in MILF camps, however, has decreased dramatically in the past few years. The MILF denies the existence of training camps, but the revelations of captured JI members in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia suggest that training continues and that the “classes” are roughly 20 people each. Moreover, there is evidence that Abu Sayyaf members are being trained in the same camps. These allegations were recently confirmed by Rohmat (Zaki), an Indonesian JI member captured as he was coming out of an MILF base command.

The links between the MILF and Jemaah Islamiyah, a regional affiliate of Al Qaeda that is responsible for three major terrorist attacks in Indonesia since October 2002, are clear and convincing. MILF offered JI training facilities in its camps in the 1990s; and several hundred JI members were trained by Al Qaeda operatives including Omar al-Faruq, Omar Al-Hadrani and al-Mughira al-Gaza’iri. The number of Indonesians in MILF camps, however, has decreased dramatically in the past few years. The MILF denies the existence of training camps, but the revelations of captured JI members in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia suggest that training continues and that the “classes” are roughly 20 people each. Moreover, there is evidence that Abu Sayyaf members are being trained in the same camps. These allegations were recently confirmed by Rohmat (Zaki), an Indonesian JI member captured as he was coming out of an MILF base command.

What is of significant concern to American and regional intelligence officials is not simply that the training is continuing, but that a cadre of first-generation, Afghan-trained JI members is now based in Mindanao, including Dulmatin and Umar Patek, two of the Bali bombers. Increasingly Mindanao is seen not just as a rear base of operations, but as a potential center of operations.

The problem with designation is the MILF is a popular national-liberation organization, and their grievances are very legitimate. They have been engaged in on-again, off-again peace talks with the government since 1997. Most recently, the ceasefire was shattered when the government over-ran their headquarters in Buliok in February 2003. Formal peace talks have still not resumed, though they are now scheduled to begin on 16 April.

In the fall of 2003, the US Government offered the MILF some $50 million over two years in development assistance if they signed a peace agreement with the government. The US calculus was simple, as long as the civil war continued, the less incentive the MILF, without state patrons, had to cut ties to JI and Al Qaeda. And yet, peace talks remain stalled.

Admiral Fallon’s statement, which has caused defensive pleas from Philippine Government officials, as well as President Arroyo herself, reflects US frustration with both the MILF and the Philippine Government. Regarding the former, the intelligence is making it hard for anyone to believe the MILF’s denials. Regarding the latter, the Philippine government has shown little seriousness or vision regarding the peace process. President Arroyo has shown little leadership that is needed if she is to succeed in reaching a deal with the MILF that will stabilize Mindanao.

Falon’s warning is correctly designed to pressure both sides. The Philippine government doesn’t want the US to do it, because it will stall the peace process, and potentially lead to a resumption of war; something the Philippine government can ill-afford.

The MILF must be held responsible for doing the right thing – ending the ties between some of its leaders and the Abu Sayyaf and JI, and turning over those individuals who discredit both their religion and an otherwise legitimate political movement. Regrettably, it is unlikely they will cut these ties until the peace process resumes in earnest and the MILF has some confidence that government commitments and agreements will be honored, and that the Philippine military will not undercut or obstruct their implementation. Ties to JI are a rational choice, a hedge, for the MILF.

While they say they don’t care about the designation, the MILF should. Designation will deligitimize their movement. Moreover, the UN Security Council will likely follow suit, and the MILF has no friends on the Security Council. UN designation will hurt their dream of an East-Timor styled UN-sponsored referendum. Moreover, it will set back the peace process and give hardliners in the Philippine military the incentive to continue the war. Then we’ll really have a terrorism problem in Southeast Asia.