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Contributing Expert Michael Cutler to Testify & List of Congressional Hearings
By Andrew Cochran
Michael Cutler will testify at a U.S. House Judiciary Committee hearing on May 5 on the missions of the immigration enforcement agencies at the Homeland Security Department. Here is the list of terrorism-related open hearings (downloadable Word file) in the U.S. House next week - the U.S. Senate will be out all week.
Dr. Walid Phares Joins Us As Contributing Expert
By Andrew Cochran
I am very pleased to welcome Dr. Walid Phares, highly respected for his expertise on terrorism, Jihad movements, and the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, to The Counterterrorism Blog as a Contributing Expert. Dr. Phares is a professor at Florida Atlantic University and a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He has written seven books on the Middle East, and published hundreds of articles in newspapers and scholarly publications, and appears often in the international and national media. We are very pleased to welcome Dr. Phares to The Counterterrorism Blog and look forward to his illuminating contributions.
TERRORISM: WHY THE NUMBERS MATTER
By Larry Johnson
By
Larry C Johnson
The numbers are in and the news is not good for U.S. efforts to contain and reduce the threat of international terrorism. 2004 marked the highest number of significant incidents of terrorism since the intelligence community started keeping statistics in 1968. (An incident is counted as significant if an attack results in the death, injury or kidnapping of one or more persons or property damage in excess of $10,000). Attacks jumped from 175 in 2003 to 651 in 2004. This surpasses the previous high of 273 significant attacks in 1985.
The bad news kept on coming. One thousand nine hundred and seven (1907) people died in international terrorist attacks last year. This marks the second highest death toll since 1968; falling short of the infamous record of 2001.
Unfortunately, former 9-11 Commission Staff Director, Phil Zelikow, and chief of the National Counter Terrorism Center, John Brennan, tried with some success to confuse the press and suggest that the numbers do not matter. In a deft display of obfuscation and spin Messrs. Zelikow and Brennan made several points. It started with Zelikows claim that:
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The compilation of data about terrorist attacks is not a required part of the report, but traditionally had been provided by the State Department, going back to the years in which the State Department was basically the public voice of the U.S. Government on international terrorism, generally. . . . But what's important for our purposes is what the law said the NCTC should do. It said the NCTC was the primary organization for analysis and integration of -- and I'm quoting from the law now -- "All intelligence possessed or acquired by the United States Government pertaining to terrorism or counterterrorism." The law further stated that the NCTC would be the United States Government's "shared knowledge bank on known and suspected terrorists and international terror groups, as well as their goals, strategies, capabilities, and networks of contact and support." (Phil Zelikow)
State Departments role as the lead for coordinating international terrorism was established by a National Security Decision Directive signed by President Reagan in early 1986. This was in response to an interagency fight that broke out during an effort to apprehend the terrorists responsible for the hijacking of the Achille Lauro cruise ship. While flying over Italy in late 1985 in pursuit of Abu Abbas, a State Department official and a CIA officer argued heatedly over who was in charge of the mission. Recognizing the need for a clear chain of command the Department of State was put in charge of coordinating the efforts of CIA, DOD, and FBI efforts to track and deal with terrorism. The first man put in charge of this effort was L. Paul (Jerry) Bremer.
Mr. Zelikow is misleading the media by asserting that the State Department traditionally compiled the data. That is simply not true. The State Department never was in charge of collecting or compiling the statistics. It simply coordinated the process of assembling the data in order to provide the Congress and the American people with a comprehensive view of international terrorist activity. Since 1986 the Counter Terrorism Center at the CIA had the task of compiling the data and writing the narrative analysis. Dont take my word for it, just ask the former Chiefs of the Counter Terrorism Center starting with Dewey Claridge and ending with Cofer Black.
By splitting the statistics on terrorism from the country reports, Zelikow is creating the kind of stovepiping of information which the 9-11 Commission claimed helped undermine US efforts to detect and defeat Al Qaedas effort to launch their suicide attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. There is nothing in the new law requiring this move.
John Brennan, the head of the National Counter Terrorism Center, made the unbelievable admission that when the CIA shifted responsibility for counting terrorist incidents to the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC) in the fall of 2003 only three part time people were assigned to the task. Brennan said:
To ensure a more comprehensive accounting of terrorist incidents, we in the NCTC significantly increased the level of effort from three part-time individuals to 10 full-time analysts, and we took a number of other steps to improve quality control and database management. This increased level of effort allowed a much deeper review of far more information and, along with Iraq, are the primary reasons for the significant growth in a number of terrorist incidents being reported.
The American people are asked to believe that nobody at TTIC understood in the aftermath of 2001 that we needed to keep a comprehensive count of terrorist events. Implicit in this criticism is a smear on the good work done previously at the Counter Terrorism Center. CTC did not consider counting terrorism events an afterthought. They used a sound methodology of monitoring news media reports, FBIS reports, and cables from US Embassies and Defense Attaches to identify possible acts of international terrorism. An act of violence did not necessarily mean that terrorism was involved. Instead expert analysts from CTC and State Departments Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) would meet periodically to review and decide what incidents represented acts of international terrorism.
This process broke down when the responsibility for doing this was shifted from CTC and put under Mr. Brennans stewardship at the Terrorist Threat Integration Center in late 2003. Mr. Brennan in fact shares much of the responsibility for the debacle with the statistics that were misreported in the report issued in April 2004. He did not ensure that his part time employees could count.
With the beefed up work force at NCTC we now know that 10 analysts were involved in counting 651 significant international terrorist attacks in 2004. Geez, I guess that means it took each analyst one year to keep track of 65 attacks.
Brennan asks the media and the American people to believe that the rise in attacks is simply the result of better counting by more people. Not true. An independent data source from RAND-MIPT shows a similar dramatic rise in attacks and deaths. This is not an artifice of methodology. Something bad is going on out there.
Two countries account for a major portion of the increased terrorist activitythe Kashmir region of India and Iraq. With respect to Kashmir it is important to note that since 1998 this area has consistently appeared in the appendix in Patterns of Global Terrorism that described significant incidents. I have used this data in briefing for foreign governments during that period to point out that not only was India being repeatedly attacked by Islamic jihadists (who were funded and trained by Pakistan), but that the people of Kashmir repeatedly suffered one of the highest death tolls of any country in the world from terrorist attacks. The sad fact is that media, and to a lesser extent the U.S. Government, tended to ignore these attacks.
It is worth recalling that the cruise missiles fired by President Clinton in August of 1998 in retaliation for the Al Qaeda bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania struck a camp in Afghanistan and killed members of one of the groups that carried out attacks in the Kashmir as well as two Pakistani intelligence officers. In the war against Islamic extremists Kashmir matters.
Brennans response on Iraq is more puzzling:
QUESTION: Do you regard the Iraq numbers that you just gave us -- for which, thank you -- as comparable? And the reason I ask is that I've got to figure that if there's one piece of real estate that the U.S. intelligence community has devoted enormous resources to in the last two years, it's got to be -- two-and-a-half years -- it's Iraq. Therefore, do you think those figures are comparable, '03 to '02?
MR. BRENNAN: In terms of what the term you're using -- "comparable" -- to sort of denote here, I'm not certain. The rigor that we applied worldwide for the 2004 data also applied to Iraq. So it was Iraq, Kashmir, and others. So that number, I think, is the result of exhaustive search and research on that. Also, as I pointed out, the number of civilians that have come not just from the United States, but also from other countries -- the number of individuals who, in fact, are in different places in Iraq that have been involved in some of the attacks that have taken place there, I think that is the reason why, in fact, we're seeing an increase in that number.
Although Brennan is not certain about the comparability of the numbers we do not have to rely on him. Data maintained by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is reported on at least a weekly basis to the Secretary of Defense, shows clear unambiguous data that the level of terrorist activity in Iraq mushroomed in 2004. In fact, the highest level of attacks ever recorded in Iraq occurred in December 2004.
Iraq is relevant to the threat of international terrorism principally because it is serving as a drawing card for jihadists throughout the Islamic world. I have had recent discussions with senior government officials representing three countries in the Persian Gulf. To a man they were alarmed by the images coming out of Iraq showing US soldiers abusing muslim women and the shooting of unarmed insurgents. The perception of the United States as an invader is inciting terrorism in the region, not quelling it. Several commented on the perceived parallel of the U.S. presence in Iraq as comparable to what the Soviets did in Afghanistan during the 1980s. They worry that we are sowing the seeds of future jihadist terrorism.
The real news from the press conference of Messrs. Zelikow and Brennan is that they have not finished counting the incidents from last year and that the numbers are likely to go up when revised statistics are issued in June. Moreover, both conceded that events in Russia and Philippines, where several hundred were killed, were excluded from the data.
I welcome Mr. Brennans commitment to look at the methodology and recommend corrections. The failure to count attacks inside Russia by Chechen separatists, for example, needs to be re-examined. While ten years ago there was no evidence that the Chechen were receiving outside assistance, that is not the case today. In fact Chechen fighters in the battle of Anaconda in Afghanistan in March 2002 killed American soldiers. The Chechen movement has clear economic and military ties to international jihadists. In future reports it would be entirely appropriate to classify as international attacks something carried out by any group with established ties to groups outside of their country.
There is no single statistic that can tell us what is happening in the war on terrorism. Reporting multiple attacks does not necessarily mean that casualties will follow. As Brennan and Zelikow correctly note most of the casualties were caused by a relatively small number of attacks. But, those attacks were carried out by Islamic extremists that have clear ties with Al Qaeda.
In light of this it is breathtaking that someone with Zelikows intellect can argue that numbers dont matter. The following exchange occurred during the Wednesday afternoon press conference:
QUESTION: Um, 651 attacks in 2004, compared to 175 attacks in your report in 2003. That's a sharp increase in terrorist attacks. What does that tell us about the war on terrorism -- the global war on terrorism and the cooperation? . . . .
MR. ZELIKOW: I mean, the short answer is it doesn't tell us anything about the war on terror. The statistics are simply not valid for any inference about the progress, either good or bad, of American policy. I think that's the honest answer. If you just look at what the statistics are and what kind of inferences can legitimately be drawn from them, I can't come up with a defensible inference.
Heres the bottomline. Numbers do matter. If more people are being killed in Iraq and India then we need to ensure that US policy for combating terrorism is focused on those areas. To pretend that the threat of terrorism is as great in Brazil as in Iraq is delusional. And to pretend that objective facts say nothing about the reality of terrorism perhaps shows us why the US effort to deal with Islamic extremists is going in the wrong direction.
Friends in the intelligence community tell me that Zelikow, when confronted with the higher numbers, tried to have those numbers suppressed. Once word of this leaked out Zelikow shifted gears to damage control and constructed the artificial and misleading explanation that NCTC is now doing something new that was never done before. Oh yeah, and it is mandated by law.
Sadly this simply shows how uninformed Zelikow is about the history of counter terrorism policies and procedures during the last 25 years, notwithstanding his post as staff director of the 9-11 Commission. Maybe this explains why the Commission had such difficulty identifying who failed in their duty to prevent those terrible attacks in September 2001. Phil Zelikow by his own admission has trouble making sense of numbers. « Close It
Testimony by Contributing Experts on Islamic Extremism in Europe
By Andrew Cochran
Matthew Levitt and the Investigative Project's Lorenzo Vidino testified yesterday before a U.S. House International Relations subcommittee on Islamic extremism in Europe. Matthew Levitt testified about the "crossover" between al-Qaeda and Hamas oepratives. Muhammad Zouaydi, a senior al-Qaeda financier in Madrid, financed the Hamburg cell responsible for the September 11 attacks and, through other figures, Hamas. He also testified on the extent of Hezbollah operations in Europe. You can link to Matthew's "Hezbollah Finances: Funding the Party of God," in the Counterterrorism Library in the left sidebar. Lorenzo testified that the escalation of Islamist terrorist and extremist activity in Europe is due chiefly to lax immigration policies, radicalization of the continents Muslim population, and law enforcement's inability to dismantle terrorist networks. You can link to Lorenzo's "The Muslim Brotherhood's Conquest of Europe" in the Counterterrorism Library in the left sidebar. Other hearing witnesses included Peter Bergen and Claude Moniquet.
THE FACTS ABOUT "PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM" (UPDATED with released "Country Reports on Terrorism 2004" and NCTC Chronology)
By Larry Johnson
by
Larry C. Johnson
(UPDATE: Larry appeared on MSNBC today on this story.) After being outed on this blog site for their surreptitious effort to keep the statistics on international terrorism away from the Congress and the American people, the State Department and the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) did a partial reverse today and released some statistics. (UPDATE: Here is link to "Country Reports on Terrorism 2004", and here is the new NCTC "Chronology of Significant International Terrorism for 2004.") As we reported earlier the number of significant incidents of terrorism in 2004 (a significant incidents means someone was killed, wounded, or kidnapped or there was property damage greater than $10,000) was the highest ever recorded. In addition, the number of fatalities is the second highest total recorded in 37 years--2001 still holds the infamous record for first place.
Rather than admit that the seventh floor at State was stunned by the figures, Phil Zelikow offers spin that this is a new effort that flows from the recommendations of the 9-11 Commission. This my friends is pure, unadulterated horse manure. What is truly ironic is that although the 9-11 Commission called for greater coordination within the intelligence community and between the intelligence community and policymakers, it is Zelikow, the Commission's former Staff Director, who is leading the charge to hinder such cooperation. Here are the facts about how Patterns of Global Terrorism has been produced prior to this year:
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Starting at least in June 1981, the CIA released a report titled, PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: 1980. The CIA was responsible for collecting the data and writing the analysis. This was produced by the National Foreign Assessment Center. (I have one of the originals.)
In 1986, following the creation of the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC) at CIA, the State Department took charge of releasing the report and it was renamed, PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM. However, the CTC continued its job of collecting the data and writing the analysis in conjunction with the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). The Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism (S/CT) issued the report. Until this year, that is how the report was produced. CIA collected the statistics, the CTC with INR wrote the narrative of the report, and the Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism coordinated the effort and wrote the regional summary sections of the report.
Problems arose in late 2003 when the responsibility for compiling the statistics and writing the narrative shifted from CTC to the new Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC). As a result State Department coordinated with TTIC rather than CTC, but the process remained the same. As a side note, the failure to totally and accurately count all incidents of international terrorism in 2003 was essentially a clerical error by TTIC.
As a result of the Intelligence Reform Act TTIC has been folded into the National Counter Terrorism Center(NCTC). NCTC has assumed the task of compiling statistics and writing the analysis as was the case with its predecessor, CTC.
For Phil Zelikow to claim like a 21st Century version of Freddie Prinze, "It's not our yob" would be funny if the issues were not so serious. State Department still has the lead for dealing with international terrorism on a country by country basis. What do we do about Pakistan, for example, where elements of their Intelligence service continue to protect and host Al Qaida and other Islamic extremists implicated in terrorist attacks in the Kashmir region of India? While NCTC may provide the data it is up to the State Department to craft and implement a policy towards Pakistan that meets the goal of reducing terrorism and promoting security between Pakistan and India. How can they do this if, "the numbers don't matter"?
If State Department does not work closely with NCTC to figure out which groups in the world are killing and wounding innocent civilians how in the world can they construct an effective policy to deal with the terrorist threat? The report may be out but some tough questions still need to be asked and some honest answers provided. Prior to 2005 we had one report that brought together the intelligence community and policymakers in a joint effort to report on international terrorism. Now we have two reports going in different directions. This is exactly what the 9-11 Commission said we should not be doing.
NOTE: You can obtain the "Patterns" reports back to 1986 on the MIPT site. « Close It
Michael Cutler on Washington Times article: More Special Agents Needed to Stop Terrorists' Entry
By Andrew Cochran
Michael Cutler asked me to post his comments about a "Washington Times" article today. First, an excerpt from the story: "The Homeland Security Department's inspector general is investigating an incident involving 14 Syrian passengers aboard a flight from Detroit to Los Angeles last summer described by many federal air marshals and passengers as a dry run for a terrorist attack."
Michael's comments: "I noticed a reference to the fact that a couple of the individuals who were acting suspiciously on the flight may have overstayed their authorized periods of admission but that this issue was overloooked by the law enforcement officers who questioned them. It is entirely possible that others of the suspicious passengers were also in violation of their immigration status. This is why it is critical that we dedicate for more resources to the critical mission of the enforcement of the immigration laws from within the interior of the United States. This is the sort of thing that immigration special agents would not have ignored and might have given them the leverage that could have been extremely helpful in launching an investigation and to also detain these guys should it have been seen as being in our best interests from a security perspective. It shows the need for having enough agents who truly understand how proper enforcement of the INA can help contribute to waging a successful war on terrorism. Yet the administration only wanted to hire 143 new special agents this year for immigration law enforcement as compared with the 800 agents authorized by Congress."
Financial Regulators Release Bank Secrecy Act Guidance to Money Service Businesses
By Andrew Cochran
FinCEN and the federal banking agencies (FBAs) at the Federal Reserve System, the FDIC, the National Credit Union Administration, the OCC, and the Office of Thrift Supervision today issued interpretive guidance setting forth the minimum steps that banking organizations should take when providing banking services to money services businesses. FinCEN has issued a concurrent advisory to money services businesses to emphasize their Bank Secrecy Act regulatory obligations and to notify them of the types of information that they will be expected to produce to a banking organization in the course of opening or maintaining account relationships. FinCEN and the FBAs issued a joint press release on the guidance and the advisory. CT Blog regulars will recall last week's letter from the FBAs, which was in turn a reply to the January 10 letter from the American Bankers Association and state regulators on the consistency of BSA examinations. The new guidance was issued well ahead of the announced deadline and during the hearing today at the Senate Banking Committee on the regulators' oversight of MSB compliance with the BSA.
Security Council Reviews Progress Against Terrorism
By Victor Comras
It may be a sign of the times that the UN Security Council could hold an open session on the progress in the war on terrorism, as it did yesterday, and attract so little press and other attention. During yesterday's session, the Security Council received briefings from its three specialized anti-terrorism committees -- the Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions (1267) Committee, the Counter-Terrorism (1373) Committee and the new (1540) Committee on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The briefings were devoid of anything controversial, and really didnt provide any new insights into how the war on terrorism was progressing. At first brush the session did not appear newsworthy. But, reading through the lines there are several items that do merit attention.
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First, the Security Council has adopted a new tone of language with regard to terrorism. The Security Council Presidents Statement, this time, forthrightly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations as criminal and unjustifiable, regardless of their motivation, whenever and whomsoever committed. This language seems closer in tone to the definition of terrorism now being considered for adoption.
A new emphasis was also placed on expanding counter-terrorism cooperation with various regional and international organizations, notably Interpol. This is a positive step and the UN should be encouraged to look even more broadly to international and regional enforcement agencies to garner increased compliance with its sanctions measures.
There was also a new degree of frustration and impatience with the slow pace of work manifested by the various terrorism committees. Most of this was directed at the Secretariats failure to get the new Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) up and running. CTED was established by the Security Council over a year ago and remains woefully understaffed. The success of the Security Councils counter-terrorism program, US Security Council Representative Stuart Halliday warned, is dependent on getting the CTED fully operational, Without a fully operational Executive Directorate, it would be difficult for the CTC to fulfill its mandate, let alone the latest 90-day work programme, he said.
There was also growing impatience with the failure of some 75 countries to provide the chapter VII required reports on the steps they were taking to deal with terrorism. The absence of reports was viewed as seriously hampering the work of the 1640 Committee charged with developing recommendations on stemming risks of WMD proliferation.
The Security Council will soon reconsider the mandate of the 1267 Committee and develop new, strengthened measures to deal with Al Qaeda and related groups. Regrettably, there is no indication they are yet considering measures to bring greater accountability and transparency to the sanctions implementation process. A healthy dose of name and shame authority could go a long way toward making the UN counter-terrorism measures more effective. « Close It
The Conviction of Ali al-Timimi
By Evan Kohlmann
After days of deliberations, jurors have finally returned with a guilty verdict in the case of would-be "Islamic scholar" Ali al-Timimi in Alexandria, Virginia. Timimi is a prominent advocate of a puritanical and often extremist form of fundamentalist Islam known as Salafism. As the federal prosecutors in Alexandria demonstrated over the past month, Timimi's "religious" teachings included directly encouraging his followers to take up arms against America in order to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and their "Arab mujahideen" allies--read Al-Qaida. Timimi's attorneys had attempted to shield their client in the protection of the First Amendment, arguing that Timimi's language never rose to the stringent incitement standard delineated in the landmark Brandenburg v. Ohio case. The jurors were apparently unpersuaded.
The conviction of Ali al-Timimi is a significant victory for the Department of Justice in its ongoing counterterrorism efforts. At a time when the DOJ is still coming to grips with regrettable evidentiary and legal defeats in a number of recent cases (such as those of London-based Al-Qaida recruiter Abu Doha and former University of Idaho student Sami Omar al-Hussayen), Timimi's conviction seems to confirm that the U.S. government is still able to successfully prosecute controversial terrorism cases without resorting to extrajudicial means, such as designating an individual as an enemy combatant. One final note: this latest conviction is due--in no small part--to the tireless work of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Virginia. Once again, the EDVA has proven itself to be a model of efficiency and success in tackling complex and critically important terrorism cases. Americans should come to expect the same level of professionalism and expertise in all facets of our national counterterrorism strategy.
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Finally Some Action on Viktor Bout
By Douglas Farah
Well, the Treasury Department today announced its long-anticipated designations of Viktor Bout's people and front companies. Bout, provider of weapons to the Taliban and most sides of most wars in sub-Saharan African in violation of U.N. embargos, has long escaped scrutiny in the United States.
The reason the announcement was delayed by several weeks was the inclusion of U.S. citizen Richard Chichakli, Bout's U.S. financial handler. Including U.S. citizens requires a higher threshold be reached before the person is designated. Of the 30 companies and four individuals designated, he is clearly the most important and newsworthy. Nine "Chichakli-controlled firms" were also designated, showing just how active Bout's financial network was in the United States.
For the first time the U.S. government, in its press release, confirms Bout's dealings with the Taliban, an assertion that was often questioned in U.S. circles. Today's release says that "information available to the U.S. government shows that Bout profited $50 million from supplying the Taliban with military equipment when they ruled Afghanistan." The full release can be found here and the full list of designated companies can be found here.
For years Chichakli, the son fo a former Syrian president and self-proclaimed childhood friend of Osama bin Laden, has helped Bout on many fronts, while happily residing in Richardson, Tx. Texas. For my full blog, see here.
STATE DEPARTMENT INTENT ON STONEWALLING ON TERRORISM (UPDATE 4/27)
By Larry Johnson
by
Larry C. Johnson
(UPDATE: April 27 Washington Post cites Larry's scoop.) The State Department and the National Counter Terrorism Center briefed a bipartisan group of the House of Representatives yesterday (Monday) on some of the numbers that will not appear in the Annual Report, Patterns of Global Terrorism. In one of the few welcome indicators that the Congress can put aside partisan activity and focus on a problem, both Republicans and Democrats were outraged by the cavalier and shallow treatment the data on terrorism is being given by the State Department. The following letter from Congressman Henry Waxman aptly summarizes the problems. Note, the letter acknowledges the role the Counterterrorism Blog played in flagging this disturbing development.
April 26, 2005
The Honorable Condoleezza Rice
Secretary of State
U.S. Department of State
2201 C Street NW
Washington, DC 20520
Dear Madam Secretary:
I am writing to urge you to reverse your decision to withhold government data on significant terrorist attacks from the State Department's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report. At a congressional briefing yesterday, Administration officials revealed that the information you are withholding shows a "dramatic up-tick" in terrorist attacks. According to the data being concealed from the public, global terror attacks were more than three times higher in 2004 than the record levels set in 2003. In Iraq, where we are spending billions to restore order, terrorist attacks were nine times higher in 2004 than in 2003.
These are important facts that the American public has a right to know.
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The 2004 Data
Officials from the State Department and the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) came to Congress yesterday to provide a private briefing to committee staffs on the Patterns of Global Terrorism report. The officials who conducted the briefing, Karen Aguilar, the Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the State Department, and Russ Travers, the Deputy Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, indicated that the data on terrorist attacks in 2004 is the most comprehensive and most reviewed data ever compiled. They reported that both the State Department and the NCTC devoted significant time, personnel, and resources to developing the most reliable terrorism data possible.
During the briefing, the officials provided a summary of this 2004 terrorism data. Although the data is not classified and has been released publicly in the past, the handout summarizing the data was marked "FOUO," meaning "for official use only."
According to the 2004 data presented at the briefing, there has been a "dramatic up-tick" in significant terrorism attacks throughout the world. Overall, there were approximately 650 significant terrorist attacks in 2004, compared with 175 attacks in 2003. Prior to 2004, the
175 significant terrorist attacks in 2003 represented a 20-year high.[1]
Ms. Aguilar and Mr. Travers indicated that a major source of this increase was the high number of terrorist attacks in Iraq.
According to information provided at the briefing, there were approximately 198 significant terrorist attacks in Iraq in 2004. This is nine times more than the 22 significant terrorist attacks in Iraq identified in the State Department's 2003 report. Indeed, the number of significant terrorist attacks in Iraq in 2004 exceeded the 175 significant terrorist attacks that occurred throughout the entire world in 2003.
Ms. Aguilar and Mr. Travers said another factor in the global increase was greater awareness of terrorist events. In particular, they emphasized that enhanced efforts to monitor newspapers, television, and other media for incidents of terrorist attacks resulted in identifying many more attacks in India and Pakistan related to Kashmir. Yet even if every terrorist attack in India and Pakistan is removed from the database, the 2004 data still shows a record increase in terrorist attacks. Excluding attacks in India and Pakistan, more than 350 significant terrorist attacks occurred worldwide last year, still double the total number of attacks in 2003.
Other parts of the world also experienced significant increases in terrorist attacks in 2004. In Afghanistan, for example, the number of significant terrorist attacks doubled, increasing from 14 in 2003 to approximately 27 in 2004. The number of significant terrorist attacks in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank also more than doubled, increasing from 19 in 2003 to approximately 45 in 2004.[2]
Despite the large increase in terrorist attacks in 2004, it appears that the 2004 data may be a significant underestimate. Many incidents that most Americans would regard as terrorist attacks were excluded from the database because they did not meet the strict State Department definitions of an international terrorist attack. Mr. Travers explained that the data collected for Iraq did not include a large number of attacks by insurgents that resulted in only Iraqi fatalities or that were directed at U.S. armed forces. Over 100 attacks by "foreign terrorist organizations" were "not counted" because they were not considered "international" attacks.
No data was presented at the briefing on the number of fatalities or injuries caused by the terrorist attacks. This essential information has traditionally been released as part of the annual global terrorism report.
The Decision to Withhold the 2004 Data
During the briefing yesterday, Ms. Aguilar and Mr. Travers also discussed whether the terrorism data would be released to the public. What they said about this question appears to conflict with the previous claims by State Department officials.
Last week, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher stated that the "people of the United States will get all the facts."[3] He said "the government has decided that the [NCTC] should compile and publish the statistical data on terrorism."[4] Yesterday, however, Ms.
Aguilar and Mr. Travers contradicted these statements, saying that no decision to publish the data has been made. Instead, they said that Ambassador Negroponte, the recently confirmed Director for National Intelligence, was in the process of making this decision. Ms. Aguilar also said the State Department would not publish the data, even if Ambassador Negroponte decided that the NCTC was not the proper office to release this information.
Mr. Boucher also stated last week that the State Department would not release the data because it would be inappropriate to have "some State Department cutout trying to explain someone else's methodology."[5] However, Ms. Aguilar and Mr. Travers indicated at the briefing that the methodology and definitions used to vet the data were identical to last year's and were taken directly from the statute governing the State Department's annual report. They also made clear that NCTC compiled the data specifically for the State Department's annual report. Mr. Travers called the State Department "the client" for this information. And the briefing document provided yesterday describes the NCTC as providing "support" for the "Patterns" report, depicting the Department's annual report as the final stop on a terrorism data flow chart.
Moreover, Ms. Aguilar conceded at yesterday's briefing that numerous Department officials - including officials from the Department's Counterterrorism Center and the Department's Bureau for Intelligence and Research - had extensive involvement in the preparation of this terrorism data. Not only did they identify and submit information about specific terrorism incidents, but they also participated in an interagency adjudication process that had as its sole purpose determining whether these terrorist incidents met the statutory standards for inclusion in the Department's annual report.
We also learned at the briefing that the State Department failed to implement numerous recommendations made by the Inspector General last September that could have prevented questions about the data's origins and methodology from arising. For example, the Inspector General recommended that the data be distributed to State Department bureaus "at a minimum on a quarterly basis," enabling the bureaus to evaluate the data regularly.[6] The Inspector General also recommended that the State Department conclude a "Memorandum of Understanding" to govern how the Department obtains terrorism data from organizations outside the Department, including "complete minutes of meetings and notes on how decisions were made."[7] Ms. Aguilar reported yesterday that neither recommendation had been implemented over the past seven months.
The main rationale given by Ms. Aguilar for your decision to exclude the 2004 data from the Patterns of Global Terrorism report is that the terrorism data is not "relevant" to the report itself. With all due respect, this is a ludicrous position. As the Inspector General concluded last year, "The accuracy of the report is dependent on accurate and complete data."[8]
Conclusion
Last year, Bush Administration officials cited the annual terrorism data as an illustration of "the great progress that has been made in fighting terrorism."[9] Members of Congress and the public discovered that these statements were erroneous only because the underlying data on terrorist attacks was available for scrutiny.[10] In effect, your decision to withhold the data this year eliminates this vital check on the veracity of the Administration's claims.
The contrast between your approach and the approach of your predecessor, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, could not be more stark. To Secretary Powell's credit, he recognized that the 2003 report contained major errors. He withdrew the initial report, directed his staff to scrub the data for errors, discussed these problems personally with Members of Congress, including myself, and issued a revised report based on the most up-to-date information.[11] Although the revised report undercut the Administration's claims that terrorist attacks were declining, Secretary Powell never sought to hide behind the actions of another agency, avoid responsibility, or conceal data.
I urge you to follow Secretary Powell's example. The large increases in terrorist attacks reported in 2004 may undermine Administration claims of success in the war on terror, but political inconvenience has never been a legitimate basis for withholding facts from the American people.
Sincerely,
Rep. Henry A. Waxman
Ranking Minority Member « Close It
Treasury Department Designates Victor Bout Arms Network
By Andrew Cochran
"The U.S. Department of the Treasury today identified 30 companies and four individuals linked to Viktor Bout, an international arms dealer and war profiteer. Today's action took place pursuant to Executive Order 13348, which targets family members and associates of former Liberian President Charles Ghankay Taylor. Bout himself was designated under the same authority in July 2004 because his association with Taylor." Doug Farah will comment on this later today.
Sent via BlackBerry Handheld
Syria to Sign Counter-Terrorism Financing Convention: An Empty Gesture!
By Victor Comras
Syria has announced its intention to sign the United Nations Convention for the Suppression of Terrorism Financing. Under the treaty, states must "make the provision of such funding a criminal offence under their domestic laws, and confiscate assets allocated for terrorist purposes". Normally, this would be an important milestone in joining the international effort to combat terrorism. But, in Syrias case, it looks like another empty gesture. Syria has long proclaimed that there are no al Qaeda cells in Syria nor funds held there on its behalf (See Syria's Report to the 1267 Committee). And the counter terrorism financing treaty is not likely to deter Syria from providing funds to Iraqi insurgents, or to Hizballah, Hamas or the PFLP.
Syrias new found interest in supporting UN counter-terrorism measures, like its pull back from Lebanon, may just be part of a defensive gambit to defuse the intense pressure resulting from the Harari assassination and growing evidence linking Syria to the Iraq insurgency. The real test will be Syrias willingness to distance itself from the Iraq insurgents, and to cut off their channel of funds from Syria and Lebanon. Its even harder to imagine that Syria will sever its financial and other support ties to Hizballah, Hamas and the PFLP. In fact, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq Shara has made it clear, time and again, that Syria considers these groups as freedom fighters and not terrorists. In the absence of a no wiggle-room definition of terrorism, Syrias signature on the Suppression of Terrorism Financing Convention is not likely to have an impact on its support for any of these groups.
Syrias role in the war on terrorism has been ambiguous at best. While it has provided some intelligence and interrogation assistance in dealing with al Qaeda, it remains high on the list of countries designated as supporting terrorism. Its links with Hizballah and the PFLP are as strong as ever. And funds continue to flow from Syria, along with volunteers, to fuel Zarqari and other Iraq insurgent groups. The U.S Treasury Department, last May,.designated the Commercial Bank of Syria (CBS) as a funding conduit for the Iraqi insurgents. CBS was also directly implicated in laundering money for Saddam Hussein and his regime, as part of the Oil for Food scandal. This, despite the fact that Syria has long exercised an iron hand of control over its state run banks, and the informal hawala system that operates within its borders.
Somalia Demonstrates How Vexing & Complex Immigration Issues Can Be
By Bill West
Remember the case of Somali alien Keyse Jama? He is the refugee who became a criminal alien in Minnesota who was placed in deportation proceedings and appealed his case all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, claiming he shouldnt be deported because Somalia has no viable national government that can officially accept his return. In January, he lostat least at the Supreme Court level (an issue covered in the CT Blog on 1/27).
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Yesterday, the Associated Press ran an interesting story about Jama. It seems the Feds, in duly attempting to execute their sworn duty to finally deport Jama, who, over four years, had fully exhausted his extensive legal appeals under U.S. law (yes, the very immigration laws and procedures that some media and special interest groups deem to be something akin to a draconian star chamber) and lost his case before the Nations highest Court, could not be physically removed to Somalia, after all.
But, it wasnt for lack of trying. According to the AP report, last week, ICE officials flew Jama to Kenya, where they turned him over to a private security firm for further transport to Bossasso, Somalia. When Jama got to Bossasso, authorities there refused to allow him to enter the country and he was ultimately returned to the custody of the ICE officers. He was then flown back to the United States, and remains in custody in the St. Paul, Minnesota area pending further decisions in his case.
The Supreme Court decided that, legally, there was no bar to the U.S. Government deporting Jama, or any other similarly situated deportable alien, to Somalia or any other country that just didnt happen to have a viable national government that would officially accept their return. There are about 3500 other Somalis under final removal orders who are no doubt anxiously waiting to see what happens in the Jama case. The rest of us should at least pay some attention, as well.
We probably dont need to imagine too hard who those authorities in Bossasso really were. Somalia is essentially a country divided into warlord fiefdoms. Bossasso was no doubt chosen by that contract security company as a place they thought they could most easily and quickly accomplish an entry, drop-off and departure with the minimum amount of payoff to the local gunmen at the airport. Something obviously did not go according to plan, and the private security escorts, possibly unarmed and undoubtedly outgunned even if they were armed, decided retreat in the face of whatever potential trouble they faced was the better part of valor.
The Jama case is significantly noteworthy because it highlights how complex immigration issues can be, particularly when dealing with volatile third world countries with a long history of terrorism and violence. Somalia, a hotbed of al-Qaeda sympathizers and operatives, with no viable government beyond heavily armed drug smuggling warlords overseeing their own chunk of geography, may be a place to where we can legally deport aliens, but actually doing that is clearly going to be another matter. The physical process of safely and securely moving human beings from here to there suddenly becomes a whole other issue.
And, that becomes an issue of foreign policy and even national security. Consider the options. If the United States cannot effectively deport these Somalis under this normal process, then what? How far do we go? Surely, with the utilization of enough military resourcesmilitary transport planes and armed troops for securitythese deportees could be flown in unannounced at remote locations, dropped off (deported) and the U.S. personnel then depart with relative safety. Is that an alternative we should really employ? And, that is an expensive alternative, which theoretically employs an armed military incursion each time we deport people. Then again, wheres the Somali government to resist or complain?
And, what if we do nothing and we dont deport those 3500 Somalis the Supreme Court now says we can legally remove? We can say were temporarily deferring their removal for humanitarian purposes. But, if we do that, we also run the risk of being perceived by many, not the least of which would be many in the radical Islamic world, of being afraid and incapable of conducting these deportations because ofwhat? The radical Muslim warlords controlling Somaliasome of whom are aligned with al-Qaeda? Is that really an option?
The case of Keyse Jama will remain one to watch. « Close It
Congresswoman: Saudi Prince's Visit Should Include Commitments on Terrorism
By Andrew Cochran
Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is visiting President Bush's ranch in Texas at a sensitive time. A former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia says that the Saudis have assisted the U.S. in Lebanon, increased oil production at crucial times, and taken initial steps towards introducing democratic reforms. But the extent of Saudi cooperation in counterterrorism (or lack thereof) is getting overlooked in wire service stories (the linked AP story gives the last two sentences to the issue). Rep. Sue Kelly (R-NY) reminds us today in an op-ed and in the NYT's story on the visit that the Saudis have a long way to go before they can claim that they are fully engaged against Al Qaeda and other Islamic-based terrorists. Rep. Kelly chairs a key oversight committee in the U.S. House, founded a special task force on terrorist financing, and recently visited Saudi Arabia, where she met with senior Saudi leaders.
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She writes that, "No financial intelligence unit actually exists today in Saudi Arabia. This is unacceptable...The Saudis deserve a measure of credit for recently trying to place controls on their government-sponsored charities. But international Islamic charities based in Saudi Arabia are mostly unaffected...And while the Saudis have been perhaps more aggressive than any country in the region in urging its citizens to reject terrorism, it is still difficult to say a strong message has been delivered with regard to terror finance. The virtual absence of convictions for terror finance offenses in Saudi Arabia since 9/11 has often been mentioned." « Close It
Doug Farah in today's Washington Post on Charles Taylor: "A Protected Friend of Terrorism"
By Andrew Cochran
Today's Washington Post (free registration) includes an op-ed by Contributing Expert Doug Farah on the inaction by the Bush Administration against Charles Taylor, the former dictator of Liberia and indicted war criminal whom Doug also describes as "an abettor of al Qaeda and Hezbollah." Taylor will escape prosecution for his crimes unless the U.S. soon takes the lead in his extradition from Nigeria to Sierra Leone, where a special court awaits. The premier expert in the U.S. on Taylor's atrocities and his ties to terrorists, Doug has posted on this issue here and on his own site, which I encourage you to visit. An excerpt from today's op-ed on Taylor's brutality and alliances:
"Taylor's were brutal, vicious crimes. For more than a decade he presided over forces that murdered, raped and mutilated children; they also abducted children to use them as cannon fodder. He created "Small Boys Units" made up of specially trained children who, while high on amphetamines, were used to raze villages and murder civilians. He trained and supplied the Revolutionary United Front in neighboring Sierra Leone, whose signature atrocity was hacking off the arms, legs and ears of civilians, many of them children. Taylor also hosted diamond buyers from al Qaeda and Hezbollah for several years, allowing the two designated terrorist groups to earn and hide their wealth in an asset that is untraceable and easily convertible to cash."
This Week in Congress: Matthew Levitt & Lorenzo Vidino Testify on Islamic Extremism in Europe
By Andrew Cochran
Contributing Experts Matthew Levitt and Lorenzo Vidino will testify this week at a House International Relations Committee hearing on Islamic extremism in Europe. This week's open terrorism-related hearings in the U.S. Congress (downloadable Word file) include numerous USA Patriot Act and border security hearings and a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Bank Secrecy Act issues involving money service businesses. I will save selected hearing links in the "Events" box on the left sidebar.
Balancing Human Rights and Aggressive Tactics in the War on Terrorism
By Victor Comras
Now that the War on Terrorism is settling in for the long haul, there is a growing perception, at home and abroad, that counter-terrorism actions are taking a toll on human rights. More than one repressive regime has used the excuse of combating terrorism to clamp down on legitimate opposition groups. And several watchdog groups are beginning to questions some of the tactics being used by more democratic regimes. There are growing questions here and abroad, for example, on the use of rendition to pressure terrorist suspects, and with regard to the treatment of war on terrorism prisoners. The UN Commission on Human Rights has just established a new international Special Rapporteur and given him a broad mandate to oversee and report on human rights abuses related to the conduct of the war on terrorism.
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Preservation of human rights in the war on terrorism was a key topic at both the Riyadh and Madrid Conferences, and in Secretary-General Kofi Annans new counter-terrorism strategy. It was also reflected at this weeks general session of the UN Commission on Human Rights which agreed to appoint, for three years, a Special Rapporteur to oversee and report on the effects counter-terrorism actions are having on human rights. His mandate includes gathering information on relevant human rights violations, and on making recommendations concerning best practices on measures to counter terrorism that respect human rights and fundamental freedoms.
The delegates to the Madrid Conference recognized that we owe it to the victims to ensure that law enforcement agencies are given adequate power and resources to bring terrorists to justice. Yet, they added, they must never sacrifice the principles they are dedicated to defend. Measures to counter terrorism should fully respect international standards of human right and the rule of law.
Achieving such compatibility between effective police and military actions and human rights safeguards has not been an easy task. Normal police and investigative methods are often not sufficient to obtain from fanatical terrorists the vital information necessary to prevent an horrendous attack. This has led some countries, including the United States, to sometimes seek to side-step the human rights issue. Rendition is a case in point.
Rendition involves turning over suspected foreign terrorists to their country of origin, or a third country, for interrogation and possible incarceration. One motivation for such action is to put greater pressure on the suspect to divulge information. In several cases, suspects picked up in the United States and abroad by US agents were turned over to foreign governments whose standards of interrogation were, at the least, questionable.
In 1998, Congress passed legislation declaring that it is the policy of the United States not to expel, extradite, or otherwise effect the involuntary return of any person to a country in which there are substantial grounds for believing the person would be in danger of being subjected to torture, regardless of whether the person is physically present in the United States. Nevertheless, the Bush Administration relaxed restrictions on rendition as part of its more aggressive counter-terrorism posture after 9/11. Then White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales, argued that rendition, in appropriate cases, was justified in order to provide the ability to quickly obtain information from captured terrorists and their sponsors in order to avoid further atrocities against American civilians.
This practice is now coming in for increased criticism from both within and outside the US government. Several Members of Congress have called on the Bush administration to sharply curtail this practice. Congressman Ed Markey (D) Massachusetts recently introduced legislation that would prohibit direct or indirect use of the rendition technique by the United States. But, while CIA Director Porter Goss has come in for some sharp questioning about the practice, Congress still appears to want to stay away from confronting the administration on this issue. « Close It
Another terrorist "goes down"
By Mike Chandler
Saajid Badat, a fellow shoe-bomber accomplice of Richard Reid was sentenced today at London's Old Bailey to 13 years in jail having been found guilty of plotting to blow-up a transatlantic airliner. Once again the message to the terrorists is that " terrorism does not pay!"
From across "the pond"
By Mike Chandler
The trial that has started in Spain of a number of individuals suspected of being members of al-Qaida and/or an al-Qaida cell, highlights the amount of time and effort that is necessary in attempting to achieve a soundly based conviction against terrorists and/or would be terrorists and their sympathisers. The length and painstaking aspects of this process were also emphasised last week with the conviction and sentencing of Kamel Bourgass in London "...for plotting to spread ricin (poison)... on the UK's streets."
Even though four individuals suspected of involvement in the same conspiracy were found not guilty by the jury in the case, others in UK and certain European countries are under investigation for terrorist related activities. Some will eventually go to trial, some will possibly be released without going to trial. The important point is that at the first level, the tactical level, it is crucial to maintain the pressure on the terrorist groups. Terrorists and would-be terrorists need to clearly understand that "terrorism does not pay". Similarly, the terrorists' supporters, sympathisers and financiers need to know that "paying for terrorism also does not pay!"
Disrupting the terrorists efforts and plans, whilst not a guarantee against further attacks, does nonetheless keep them 'on-the-hop' and goes some way to ensuring that they can only continue to operate with considerable difficulty. This is all the more important due to concerns that a number of jihadists fighting coalition forces and their allies in Iraq, might carry-out terrorist attacks after they return to the European country of their 'adopted' citizenship. Some individuals have been identified, suspected of having links to groups connected with Iraq, e.g. al-Tawhid . Hence the threat posed by trans-national terrorism, rather than al-Qaida per se has to be seen for what it is and treated accordingly. We saw what happened after the Soviet departure from Afghanistan, with mujahidin taking their jihad to Bosnia and Chechnya and, more recently the movements after the over throw of the Taliban regime. Many of the Afghan-Arabs who had been in Afghanistan came to Europe where they either joined existing al-Qaida cells or formed new ones, be they of an operational or supporting nature.
U.S. Shuts Off "Dirty" Latvian Banks & Regulators Issue Important Bank Secrecy Act Letter
By Andrew Cochran
The Treasury Department and other federal financial regulators effectively shut off access to the U.S. financial system for two banks in Latvia today. By applying Section 311 of the USA Patriot Act, called "the smart bomb of terrorist financing" by a former Treasury Department General Counsel, the U.S. government is ordering U.S. financial institutions to cease doing business with to Multibanka and VTF Bank, the two named banks, for their alleged enabling of financial fraud and money laundering. Personally, I hope the regulators apply Section 311 sanctions more often against those banks which enable the easy transmission of terrorist funds, and the regulators and law enforcement already know of candidates. Near the end of the above-linked press release, you'll note that Section 311 has been seldom applied. The Senate Banking Committee is holding a Bank Secrecy Act oversight hearing next Tuesday, and I hope the Senators use the opportunity to ask the regulators to clearly state the criteria upon which a Section 311 sanctions decision is made and why it hasn't been applied more often.
The regulators also issued an important letter this week, available on the internet for the first time here, to the banks and their state regulators about the consistency of banking examinations. They replied to concerns in a letter sent on January 10 by the banks (represented by the American Banking Association) and all state banking regulators (and which was also available for the first time here)
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In that letter, the ABA and state regulators requested clarity and more consistency in federal BSA examination procedures. They wrote, "(T)he lack of consistency in examination oversight and compliance guidance is a major theme of regulatory complaints received by ABA and the state banking associations." While pledging to work with the industry to avoid confusion and defensive filing of BSA-required disclosures, the FBAs (federal banking regulators) has something interesting to add about another federal agency which did not sign the letter:
"It is also important to consider the role of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in BSA-related enforcement matters. The FBAs and FinCEN believe that the Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) process is a valuable tool in the civil regulatory and criminal enforcement scheme. Currently, we are working with our colleagues at DOJ to attempt to better define the value and appropriate uses of SARs as well as the appropriate role for criminal prosecutions of banks under the BSA. We are hopeful that this effort will result in a clear and consistent approach that will alleviate some of the concerns that have led to defensive SAR filings."
This is another tacit admission of what has been obvious in public conferences this year - that the Justice Department does not think that it should be held responsible for any confusion. The industry became very upset when a U.S. Attorney in Mississippi prosecuted AmSouth last year without a prior regulatory action or DOJ headquarters review. As I posted on April 13, that led to an effort to take the prosecutorial discretion for BSA bank prosecutions away from the U.S. Attorneys in the field and centralize it at DOJ headquarters. Although that effort has support in Washington, the industry shouldn't think that DOJ will just step out of BSA prosecutions. As far as DOJ prosecutors are concerned, the industry had many years after the BSA was passed to prepare their systems to avoid criminal prosecutions, and the banks and the FBAs ought to do their job and let DOJ do theirs.
Moreover, DOJ is not the only player in the field. The DHS Office of Immigrations & Customs Enforcement (ICE) has begun a vigorous nationwide task force to investigate money service businesses, with big cases in Philadelphia this weekend and the Rahim Bariek indictment in northern Virginia last week. I can't expect that new DHS Secretary Chertoff, a former federal prosecutor who was instrumental in the pursuing the corporate fraud prosecutions, will tell his ICE agents to back off and let the regulators and banks work things out. « Close It
Larry Johnson: "The Demise of Counterterrorism" (UPDATED for wire story)
By Andrew Cochran
Larry Johnson, currently on travel, asked me to post this update on the terrorism report controversy, with information about terrorism in Kashmir and a recommendation for the top State Department counterterrorism job:
The recent furor generated by the State Department's decision to cease publishing a glossy report on international terrorism and let the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) handle the statistics and questions by themselves is symptomatic of a much deeper problem--lack of leadership on the counterterrorism issue. (UPDATE: Rep. Henry Waxman asked the State Department Inspector General to investigate the decision on the report.) Since the departure of Cofer Black in December 2004 the Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism has been vacant. While career foreign service officers have been tabbed to fill the role in an "acting" capability, the fact remains that there is no one with the clout or mandate to do the job of coordinating the foreign policy communities response to international terrorism.
This is not, as some might argue, a battle over turf. Although the National Counter Terrorism Center has received a legislative mandate to coordinate terrorist issues, managing policy within the bowels of State Department requires someone who is in the building and has the ear of the Secretary of State.
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A State Department official commenting on the decision to not publish the statistics on international terrorism said they would let NCTC worry about the statistics and State would do the "policy". Really? How can you formulate a coherent policy if you don't know what the numbers are? Who is doing the killing? In which countries are there attacks where terrorists are killing and wounding scores of people? One of the uncomfortable answers buried in the data concerns the attacks in Kashmir. The groups responsible for these attacks--e.g., the Lashkar Tayibba, the Harakat ul-Ansar--have received funding and support from elements of Pakistan's intelligence service. In the past these groups were training in Afghanistan alongside Al Qaida. In other words one of our key allies in the war on terrorism has been a sponsor of terrorism.
This is but one example of the unpleasant, difficult policy issues that lurk behind the so-called meaningless statistics. Until you have someone at the State Department in a leadership position who understands that the numbers matter you will not have an effective policy to combat terrorism. For now the policy is adrift.
What should Condi do? For starters she might want to consider naming her buddy Phil Zelikow as the new Coordinator for Counter Terrorism. He is the right man for the job--he has access to Condi and knows the issues. However, I fear Zelikow would view this as a step down from his current perch. That, my friends, speaks volumes about the gulf between the lip service being provided to fighting the war on terrorism and the actual commitment to put some bodies on the line that can make a difference.
So, as State Department continues to tap dance about justifying not putting out a public report that provides specific data on the level of international terrorism around the world, perhaps Secretary Rice could better spend her time by naming a new Coordinator that has the clout to get something done, including putting out reports with good analysis and accurate numbers. « Close It
R.P. Eddy: "Look for Nuclear Weapons in the RDD Haystack"
By Andrew Cochran
Contributing Expert R.P. Eddy, former senior U.N. and N.S.C. counterterrorism official, asked me to post this for him:
From a story by Bill Gertz in yesterday's Washington Times: Recurrent intelligence reports say al Qaeda terrorist Abu Musab Zarqawi has obtained a nuclear device or is preparing a radiological explosive -- or dirty bomb -- for an attack.. The classified reports say Zarqawi, al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, has stored the nuclear device or dirty bomb in Afghanistan.
While reports of terrorists possessing either an RDD or a nuclear weapon are bad news, credible intelligence of terrorists overseas possessing the latter would be cause for defensive measures approaching a lock-down of our borders and a massive increase in federal and policing activity.
On the other hand, credible intelligence of terrorists with an RDD overseas should cause nothing near the same level of response. It is quite likely a terrorist can assemble an RDD in nearly any industrialized city - here or abroad. Radioactive waste is a by-product of mining, medicine, even dentistry. For this reason, to learn that they have created an RDD overseas would make me think the intended target is overseas as well - why go to the trouble to transport it to the US when they can make one here? (An exception would be if they came upon stores of some of the most highly toxic radioactive materials that are better protected in the US.)
So in a resource constrained environment, how to prioritize and act on information that mentions radioactive material? Is the threat nearly a show-stopper or is it simply newsworthy?
New Videos from Zarqawi/Al-Qaida in Iraq
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq--led by wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released the following video footage since April 16 of artillery launches, roadside bombs, and suicide car bombings on U.S. military forces stationed in Iraq. In at least one suicide bombing, the "martyr" was identified as Abu Shaheed al-Lubnani, indicating that he was a foreign fighter from Lebanon.
Click to view video c/o Globalterroralert.com - Apr. 16 video of bombing attack on U.S. convoy in Mosul - Apr. 16 video of suicide bombing at a "CIA base" in Tikrit - Apr. 18 video of mortar attack on U.S. forces in Baqubah - Apr. 18 video of suicide bomber Abu Shaheed al-Lubnani - Apr. 18 video of rocket attack on U.S. base in Taji
G-7 and Terrorism Financing: Looking Toward Gleneagles
By Victor Comras
The G-7 Finance Ministers Statement at the close of their meeting in Washington April 15-16 provides a small glimpse into G-7 thinking re the terrorism financing agenda item for this summers G8 Summit at Gleneagles. It appears doubtful that any major new initiatives are planned. Rather, the Group of Eight is likely to stay focused on its previous CTAG and SAFTI initiatives as it pushes to {strengthen} the process of multilateral asset freezing, in line with UN resolutions, and to {improve} information sharing. The US seems to have come up a little short in getting G-7 full support for its new terrorism financing tracking initiatives. The US wants other countries to adopt measures, similar to those in the Patriots Act, which would effectively filter, or cut off, transactions with questionable overseas financial entities. Ministers agreed only that they would {explore} the possibility of broadening the application of new financial tools to disrupt all illicit activity.
The United Kingdom, which will host this years Gleneagles {Scotland} Summit, agreed, last year, to draft a new thematic action plan to better identify and target terrorist support networks. They will likely stress measures directed at encouraging improved implimentation of the UN financial sanctions ( UNSCR 1267 and 1373). They are expected to also propose new steps to bolster application of FAFTs 40 recommendations, including the 9 Special Recommendations dealing with terrorism financing. The G-8 has not received high marks for following through on its previous initiatives to combat terrorism financing. In fact, the University of Toronto yearly assessment report on G-8 program compliance finds that, since Sea Island, implementation on "terrorism financing has fallen within the negative range." There is growing recognition that further steps are necessary to "re-invigorate" international implementation of UN sanctions requirements. Hopefully Gleneagles will provide an opportunity to review and assess the progress made, and to make the necessary adjustments.
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The G-8 created the Counter-terrorism Action Group at Evian in 2003 to place increased pressure on countries to comply with their international obligations to cut off terrorism funding and freeze terrorism-related assets. CTAG was given a mandate to identify countries that either lacked the resources or the political will carry out these responsibilities. CTAG has joined up with the UNs Counter-Terrorism Committees new Executive Directorate (CTED) to identify and focus on candidates for technical and financial assistance. But, this process is still in its early stages. Dealing with the political issue has proved even more problematic. (See my earlier Blog on What's Happened To CTAG?
The SAFTI initiative was put in place at the 2004 Sea Island Summit. It is directed at raising standards, modernizing procedures, and exchanging information in order to deter threats, reduce costs, and help ensure safe and efficient movement of passengers and cargo. But, it has already embroiled Europe and the United States in a serious dispute regarding the introduction of new biometric traveler identification documents. EU countries are behind schedule in introducing new passports with biometric data and there are important differences with the United States with regarded to the use of embedded chip technology. This could lead to new visa requirements for travelers between the United States and Europe later this year. (See my earlier Blog on Europe: Biometric Passports May be Years Away « Close It
Larry Johnson's Update: "State Department Punts on Terrorism"
By Andrew Cochran
Larry Johnson asked me to post the following update to his April 14 scoop while he is on travel (links are mine):
To the uninformed listener State Department spokesmen Richard Boucher offered a rational explanantion for why statistics on international terrorist attacks would be excluded from this year's report to Congress. According to Boucher:
"As far as the statistical annexes that we have included in the past in various ways, there has been a development this year in terms of the structure of the government's work on terrorism and we're going to take that into account. The 9/11 Commission recommended and the Congress passed legislation called the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 that established the National Counterterrorism Center as the primary organization in the U.S. Government for analysis of global terrorism. With respect for that mandate and acknowledgment that they're the people who do the detailed work in any case, the government has decided that the National Center for Counterterrorism -- National Counterterrorism Center should compile and publish the statistical data on terrorism that has previously been included by the State Department in our report. "
This is sheer, utter nonsense. For the last 16 years the Counter Terrorism Center at the CIA has been doing exactly what NCTC will now do, with one big exception--State Department is ignoring the statistics. Since my original posting on 14 April on this issue I have learned that State Deparment's seventh floor made a direct intervention with the NCTC to "encourage" them to use a different methodology that would produce a lower number of terrorist attacks. NCTC refused to do so. As a result State Department decided that the politics of reporting a dramatic rise in international terrorist incidents was too hot to handle and punted.
How ironic that one of Condoleeza Rice's counselors on this matter, Phil Zelikow, the Staff Director of the 9-11 Commission is directly involved in trying to manage the statistics and shift the political heat to the NCTC rather than take the issue head on. Are there problems with the statistics? Sure. There have been problems every year since Patterns started. What we are seeing for the first time since 1989 is a level of policy cowardice unprecedented in the history of the State Department. Using incompetence and mistakes in last year's report as an excuse to run away from answering the fundamental question of whether or not the United States is making headway against the groups that are attacking us with terrorist tactics is a shameful, improper act.
Viktor Bout Flys On
By Douglas Farah
Unbelievable as it may seem, Viktor Bout, internationally-wanted fugitive and weapons supplier to the Taliban and al Qaeda, continues to fly for U.S. firms in Iraq, being paid by U.S. taxpayer dollars. I was just given the documents that show this. So confident is he of whatever protection he seems to have, that he has not even bothered to change the call letters of his aircraft, flying under MCC, the designation of Aerocom. Two flights, MCC 9025 and MCC 9027 are scheduled today and tomorrow into Iraq.
It does not seem to matter that Aerocom lost is Moldovan air operator certificate in August 2004 and, according to international aviation officials, does not appear to have re-registered anyplace else. Nor does it seem to matter much that the CIA and Treasury Department have been working to cut off Bout's Iraq and Afghan links. Juan Zarate, assistant secreatary of treasury for terror finance, is on the record saying "our ultimate goal is to shut down his (Bout's) network." The entire story can be found here
Arizona Minutemen a Cautious Success
By Bill West
As the Minuteman Project on the Arizona border with Mexico nears its two-thirds mission milestone, passing without incident and claiming to have reported hundreds of illegal alien border crossers to the Border Patrol, and with the statistics reflecting a dramatic decrease in the number of illegal border crossings along the 20 mile stretch monitored by the citizen volunteers, the organization is touting the project a successso far.
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And, so far, it would be hard to argue otherwise. The facts seem to bear out that a large, motivated, disciplined, self-contained organization composed of ordinary American citizens managed to perform a fairly dramatic and risky task in a potentially dangerous environment and actually accomplished something good and did so without anyone getting hurt. And by doing so, demonstrated that certain Government officials were simply wrong. Wrong about their organization and wrong about what they were trying to do.
Hopefully, the remaining twelve days or so the Minutemen officially have on the Arizona border will continue as their first nineteen. They have already inspired thousands of other volunteers and there is a plan to expand this effort to other parts of the U.S. Mexican border in the fall. Well have to wait and see if the current enthusiasm plays out over the coming months. Even so, what has happened so far is remarkable.
The Minutemen have clearly shown that manpower on the border can have a drastic effect on reducing illegal border crossings. Prior intensive Border Patrol operations, like Operation Hold the Line, wherein there was a serious augmentation of agents in key border crossing areas have proven the same. Why then, do we not have a Border Patrol that is properly staffed? Or, in the alternative, why do we not seriously consider using National Guard or other military personnel to augment Border Patrol agents along certain critical border crossing areas? If citizen volunteers can man static observation posts and report border crossers, surely trained military personnel, such as Military Police, can do that and maybe even more. Perhaps even other Government alternatives, such as a Reserve Homeland Security Force, composed of retired law enforcement officer volunteers could be considered.
Beyond the immigration and border security issues in this, the Minuteman Project has reminded us of something else. While perhaps an initial reaction of some Americans was that a group of angry armed civilians is a recipe for disaster, the Minuteman Project thus far has proven those doomsayers wrong. In fact, as their namesake should remind us, it was angry armed civilians a couple hundred years ago that gave birth to something called the United States of America.
If the Minutemen go home the end of April, their project ending with no serious incidents, no one hurt and their point proven, apart from showing the Government some of what needs to be done on the border, they will have reminded the rest of us that in America, power still really does flow from the People to the government and not the other way around. That is even more important and something, perhaps, a lot of Government officials and civil servants need to remember. And, just maybe, its also time for some in the mainstream media to give more credit to the citizenry. « Close It
Fallout Continues From Larry Johnson's CT Blog Scoop on State Department Report
By Andrew Cochran
Last Thursday night, Larry Johnson posted his scoop on the elimination of the publicly available statistics in the annual "Patterns of Global Terrorism" and the rise in the number of reportable terrorist incidents from 2003 to 2004. Yesterday's State Department daily press briefing began with questions about Friday's Knight-Ridder wire story, which quoted Larry and cited the CTB. Today's Washington Post and LA Times have excellent stories on the decision to have the NCTC release the statistics, and they quoted Larry (and thanks to the WP for citing the CTB as the original outlet). Other news services ran stories, but didn't see fit to cite the Knight-Ridder story, Larry, or the CTB. Larry is now on travel but plans to file an update analysis soon, perhaps with new info.
Iraqi Security Forces Capture Alleged Zarqawi Lieutenants in Ramadi
By Evan Kohlmann
This from the Government Communications Directorate of the Republic of Iraq: "Security forces captured another so-called Tanzim Qa`idat al-Jihad Fi Bilad Al-Rafidayn (QJBR) Amir [commander]. Hamza Ali Ahmed al-Widmizyar, also known as Abu Majid was captured in a raid in Ramadi in early April. Abu Majid facilitated communications, weapons and money for al-Zarqawi. Abu Majid was also directly associated with Hiwa Gopali and Umar Baziyani, both of whom were trusted al-Zarqawi lieutenants captured by Security Forces in 2004. Abu Majid has met personally with al-Zarqawi at least on five separate occasions. Salman Aref Abdulkadir Khwamurad al-Zardowe, a.k.a. Abu Sharif, who was, also, captured in the raid, confirmed Abu Majid's position and connections within the al-Zarqawi network. Abu Sharif confessed his involvement in terrorist activity for over three years to include making and detonating improvised explosive devices. Both Abu Majid and Abu Sharif have provided information to Security Forces that will likely lead to more significant arrests of al-Zarqawi associated terrorists in Mosul, Ramadi, and Kirkuk."
Oops! A Breach in Security for Al-Qaida Online Reveals New Zarqawi Website
By Evan Kohlmann
Several weeks ago, credible representatives of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al-Qaida faction in Iraq announced that they would soon be opening their own Al-Qaida website on the Internet, featuring propaganda materials, communiques, video clips, and audio recordings. Finally, late last week, a critical security error made by an Al-Qaida cyber-facilitator known as "Terrorist 007" allowed public web users to briefly view the rough draft of Zarqawi's new homepage on the Internet. It is clear from browsing the "beta" website inadvertently broadcast by Terrorist 007 that Zarqawi's cyber-operatives are intensely active at the moment, working--among other things--on the production of future issues of their nascent online magazine, Tharwat al-Sanam ("The Camel's Hump"). Additionally, there is a renewed focus on providing reliable download links for jihad video clips, including versions specifically encoded for use on European and Middle Eastern web-equipped cellular telephones. Americans will be comforted to learn that the website--along with Zarqawi's entire current video archive of beheadings and suicide bombings--is being hosted from a server in downtown Atlanta, Georgia. Al-Qaida representatives have not offered any comment on when the final version of Zarqawi's homepage will be open to public visitors. Much of the material mistakenly published by Terrorist 007 has since been removed, and web surfers are now greeted with the message "Nothing to see... Move along..."
Click to view screenshot of the website c/o Globalterroralert.com
This Week in Congress: List of Open Hearings
By Andrew Cochran
HERE is a single downloadable Word file of this week's terrorism-related hearings in the U.S. Congress which are open to the public. They include several hearings on the USA PATRIOT Act and an expected vote by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the nomination of John Bolton to be the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. I will add links for selected hearings to the "Events" box in the left sidebar.
GOODBYE PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM? (UPDATED 4/16)
By Larry Johnson
by
Larry C. Johnson
(UPDATE, 4/16: Knight-Ridder Newspapers quotes this post in wire story.) Just when you thought the Department of State could not top last year's debacle in failing accurately to count the number of international terrorist incidents, it appears that the State Department is going one step better--they reportedly have decided to not issue a report to the public. This move has been prompted by the Department's discovery that the new methodology used by the recently formed National Counter Terrorism Center has produced statistics that shows an enormous jump in the number of international terrorist attacks. For example, in 2003 there were about 172 significant attacks. The numbers for 2004 have jumped to at least 655. At least 300 of those incidents occurred in India in the Kashmir region. NCTC, I'm told, is still tweaking the numbers. For Secretary of State Rice these numbers are a disaster. It is tough to argue we are winning the war on terrorism when the numbers in the official Government report will show the largest number of incidents ever recorded since the State Department started reporting on terrorist incidents. In the Secretary's defense, however, the sharp jump in numbers has more to do with a change in methodololgy of counting rather that an actual surge in Islamic extremist activity. In fact, if you take time to parse the numbers, the actual scope of terrorism by Islamic extremists in 2004 appeared to decline relative to the attacks during 2003 (except for Iraq). Rather than run from the numbers the State Department and the Intelligence Community should seize the opportunity to really get their hands around the issue and provide Congress and the American people with a clear, apolitical assessment about the reality of the terrorist threat we face. (Note: the reporting requirement in 22 USCS is reprinted below.)
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22 USCS 2656f (2005)
2656f. Annual country reports on terrorism
(a) Requirement of annual country reports on terrorism. The Secretary of State shall transmit to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, by April 30 of each year, a full and complete report providing--
(1) (A) detailed assessments with respect to each foreign country--
(i) in which acts of international terrorism occurred which were, in the opinion of the Secretary, of major significance;
(ii) about which the Congress was notified during the preceding five years pursuant to section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 [50 USCS Appx 2405(j)]; and
(iii) which the Secretary determines should be the subject of such report; and
(B) detailed assessments with respect to each foreign country whose territory is being used as a sanctuary for terrorists or terrorist organizations;
(2) all relevant information about the activities during the preceding year of any terrorist group, and any umbrella group under which such terrorist group falls, known to be responsible for the kidnapping or death of an American citizen during the preceding five years, any terrorist group known to have obtained or developed, or to have attempted to obtain or develop, weapons of mass destruction, any terrorist group known to be financed by countries about which Congress was notified during the preceding year pursuant to section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 [50 USCS Appx 2405(j)], any group designated by the Secretary as a foreign terrorist organization under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1189), and any other known international terrorist group which the Secretary determines should be the subject of such report;
(3) with respect to each foreign country from which the United States Government has sought cooperation during the previous five years in the investigation or prosecution of an act of international terrorism against United States citizens or interests, information on--
(A) the extent to which the government of the foreign country is cooperating with the United States Government in apprehending, convicting, and punishing the individual or individuals responsible for the act; and
(B) the extent to which the government of the foreign country is cooperating in preventing further acts of terrorism against United States citizens in the foreign country; and
(4) with respect to each foreign country from which the United States Government has sought cooperation during the previous five years in the prevention of an act of international terrorism against such citizens or interests, the information described in paragraph (3)(B).
(b) Provisions to be included in report. The report required under subsection (a) should to the extent feasible include (but not be limited to)--
(1) with respect to subsection (a)(1)(A)--
(A) a review of major counterterrorism efforts undertaken by countries which are the subject of such report, including, as appropriate, steps taken in international fora;
(B) the response of the judicial system of each country which is the subject of such report with respect to matters relating to terrorism affecting American citizens or facilities, or which have, in the opinion of the Secretary, a significant impact on United States counterterrorism efforts, including responses to extradition requests; and
(C) significant support, if any, for international terrorism by each country which is the subject of such report, including (but not limited to)--
(i) political and financial support;
(ii) diplomatic support through diplomatic recognition and use of the diplomatic pouch;
(iii) providing sanctuary to terrorists or terrorist groups;
(iv) providing weapons of mass destruction, or assistance in obtaining or developing such weapons, to terrorists or terrorist groups;
(v) the positions (including voting records) on matters relating to terrorism in the General Assembly of the United Nations and other international bodies and fora of each country which is the subject of such report;
(2) with respect to subsection (a)(1)(B)--
(A) the extent of knowledge by the government of the country with respect to terrorist activities in the territory of the country; and
(B) the actions by the country--
(i) to eliminate each terrorist sanctuary in the territory of the country;
(ii) to cooperate with United States antiterrorism efforts; and
(iii) to prevent the proliferation of and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction in and through the territory of the country;
(3) with respect to subsection (a)(2), any--
(A) significant financial support provided by foreign governments to those groups directly, or provided in support of their activities;
(B) provisions of significant military or paramilitary training or transfer of weapons by foreign governments to those groups;
(C) efforts by those groups to obtain or develop weapons of mass destruction;
(D) provision of diplomatic recognition or privileges by foreign governments to those groups;
(E) provision by foreign governments of sanctuary from prosecution to these groups or their members responsible for the commission, attempt, or planning of an act of international terrorism; and
(F) efforts by the United States to eliminate international financial support provided to those groups directly or provided in support of their activities;
(4) a strategy for addressing, and where possible eliminating, terrorist sanctuaries that shall include--
(A) a description of terrorist sanctuaries, together with an assessment of the priorities of addressing and eliminating such sanctuaries;
(B) an outline of strategies for disrupting or eliminating the security provided to terrorists by such sanctuaries;
(C) a description of efforts by the United States to work with other countries in bilateral and multilateral fora to address or eliminate terrorist sanctuaries and disrupt or eliminate the security provided to terrorists by such sanctuaries; and
(D) a description of long-term goals and actions designed to reduce the conditions that allow the formation of terrorist sanctuaries; and
(5) an update of the information contained in the report required to be transmitted to Congress under 7120(b) of the 9/11 Commission Implementation Act of 2004 [unclassified].[;]
[(6)](3) to the extent practicable, complete statistical information on the number of individuals, including United States citizens and dual nationals, killed, injured, or kidnapped by each terrorist group during the preceding calendar year; and
[(7)](4) an analysis, as appropriate, of trends in international terrorism, including changes in technology used, methods and targets of attack, demographic information on terrorists, and other appropriate information.
(c) Classification of report.
(1) Except as provided in paragraph (2), the report required under subsection (a) shall, to the extent practicable, be submitted in an unclassified form and may be accompanied by a classified appendix.
(2) If the Secretary of State determines that the transmittal of the information with respect to a foreign country under paragraph (3) or (4) of subsection (a) in classified form would make more likely the cooperation of the government of the foreign country as specified in such paragraph, the Secretary may transmit the information under such paragraph in classified form.
(d) Definitions. As used in this section--
(1) the term "international terrorism" means terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than 1 country;
(2) the term "terrorism" means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents;
(3) the term "terrorist group" means any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which practice, international terrorism;
(4) the terms "territory" and "territory of the country" mean the land, waters, and airspace of the country; and
(5) the terms "terrorist sanctuary" and "sanctuary" mean an area in the territory of the country--
(A) that is used by a terrorist or terrorist organization--
(i) to carry out terrorist activities, including training, fundraising, financing, and recruitment; or
(ii) as a transit point; and
(B) the government of which expressly consents to, or with knowledge, allows, tolerates, or disregards such use of its territory and is not subject to a determination under--
(i) section 6(j)(1)(A) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 (50 U.S.C. App. 2405(j)(1)(A));
(ii) section 620A(a) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2371(a)); or
(iii) section 40(d) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2780(d)).
(e) Reporting period.
(1) The report required under subsection (a) shall cover the events of the calendar year preceding the year in which the report is submitted.
(2) The report required by subsection (a) to be submitted by March 31, 1988, may be submitted no later than August 31, 1988. « Close It
The Evidence Behind the London Ricin Plot
By Evan Kohlmann
Despite damning evidence and the violent murder of a British constable, four of five men accused of plotting to spread ricin and other poisons throughout downtown London have been acquitted by a court in the United Kingdom. When British counterterrorism forces raided the headquarters of the alleged terror cell in January 2003, they found a makeshift chemical weapons factory, replete with castor oil beans (the raw material for ricin), lab equipment, and recipes for ricin, cyanide, botulinum, and the preparation of explosives.
Click to view seized exhibits in the London Ricin case c/o Globalterroralert.com
John Bolton: Another Story - Another View
By Victor Comras
There are several stories out and about regarding John Bolton and his character and fitness for appointment as US Ambassador to the United Nations. In fairness to John Bolton, I'd like to add another.
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Let me start off with a disclaimer: I have not seen or dealt with John Bolton for more than twelve years. I doubt he even remembers me. Other than the fact that he's a committed conservative and I am not, I have no direct insights into his qualifications for the job. I tell this story because he treated me as a straight shooter.
My encounter with John Bolton was at the 1992 London Conference on the Former Yugoslavia. Both John Bolton and I were there as members of Secretary Eagleburger's delegation. Bolton was then Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs, and I was an underling in a different bureau. A key objective for Eagleburger at the London Conference was "putting some teeth" into the international sanctions on Serbia, and Eagleburger called one of his "rough elbow" delegation meetings to develop some ideas on how to handle this.
UN Sanctions normally fell within John Bolton's balliwick. and he made an eloquent presentation on the need for us to adopt a more activist approach in the Security Council to hold all countries accountable. Frankly, I did not agree with this approach. It ran counter to my own experience in dealing with various other UN sanctions programs. Eagleburger had invited dissenting views, and I gave mine.
I put forth a plan that would leave sanctions policy in the hands of the Security Council, but place sanctions enforcement in the hands of a separate independent regional mechanism. I suggested treating sanctions violations as border smuggling (that is customs issues) rather than political issues. My ideas ran directly counter to Bolton's presentation.
To my surprise Eagleburger agreed with me. And to my chagrin, he took the sanctions portfolio out of Bolton's hand and put me in charge of negotiating what I had described.
I remember very vividly John Bolton walking up to me after that meeting, extending his hand and telling me he wanted to help me anyway he could. He also directed his staff to provide me any needed assistance. His help and support during the London Conference, and afterward, were critical elements to my success. I will always remain grateful for his extended hand and his support. « Close It
Iraqi Islamic Extremist Groups Cooperating with Al-Qaida
By Evan Kohlmann
The Al-Rijjal Brigade--an Iraqi insurgent group led by "Abu Abdullah al-Qurashi"--has announced that it has officially sworn allegiance to Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Separately, the Ansar al-Sunnah Army has issued a statement claiming responsibility for a bombing ambush on Iraqi police in Kirkuk, allegedly carried out with the cooperation of "a number of our fighting brothers from Al-Qaida's Committee."
Click to view English translations c/o Globalterroralert.com: - Apr. 13 statement from the leader of the Al-Rijjal Brigade - Apr. 14 claim from Ansar al-Sunnah of bombing in Kirkuk
Text of New Indictments in Oil-for-Food Scandal (UPDATE, 4/15)
By Andrew Cochran
HERE is the indictment of David Chalmers, Texan who runs Bayoil, and the company itself; John Irving, the British citizen; and Ludmil Dionissiev, the Bulgarian citizen. HERE is the indictment of Tongsun Park, a South Korean also indicted for acting as Saddam's agent. UPDATE, 4/15: Tongsun Park has quite a history of improper influence. Back in the 1970s, he was the central figure in investigations into improper Korean influence in the U.S. Congress.
"Real ID Act" Effectively Blocked in U.S. Senate
By Andrew Cochran
In March, the U.S. House of Representatives attached the "REAL ID Act" legislation, designed to address the 9/11 Commssion's "terrorist travel" findings, to the bill providing $80+ billion in supplemental war and counterterrorism funds. House Majority Leader DeLay insists that the act remain in that bill, but it's not going anywhere in the U.S. Senate. Roll Call (sorry, paid subscription required) reports today that the Senate easily passed a nonbinding resolution to exclude all immigration issues from the bill. Roll Call also quotes the powerful chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee as saying that the entire supplemental spending bill "would go down" if the "REAL ID Act" is included.
Saudi National Named as Alleged Al-Qaida Suicide Bomber in Al-Qaim
By Evan Kohlmann
Sources in the Arabian Peninsula are now claiming that one of the four Al-Qaida suicide bombers who attacked a U.S. base in the western Iraqi town of Al-Qaim on April 11 was Saudi national Hadi bin Mubarak al-Qahtani. According to a statement marking his death, Hadi had grown "eager to martyr himself" after witnessing the example of the "19 heroes" and their "holy attack that demolished the foolish infidel Americans and caused many young men to awaken from their deep sleep."
Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com
Change in Bank Secrecy Act Prosecutions of Banks?
By Andrew Cochran
Last year, a U.S. Attorney in Mississippi stunned the financial services sector by criminally prosecuting AmSouth Corp. for violations of the Bank Secrecy Act without a prior regulatory action by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve System. AmSouth settled the charges, admitting to "systemic and serious" violations of the Bank Secrecy Act and other anti-laundering laws, and paying $50 million in fines. A former general counsel of the Tresury Department was quoted in the American Banker as calling it "a Justice Department hijacking of a regulatory issue." That issue continues to reverberate through the sector and in Washington. The Sunday New York Times story on the Bush Administration's plan to access international banking records (registration required) indicated that the Federal Reserve System "is seeking changes that would require such prosecutions to be overseen by Justice Department officials at headquarters in Washington, rather than at the discretion of federal prosecutors in the field..." Not only is that true, but that effort might have more potential than was indicated in the story.
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The statement in the NYT story is based on comments by a senior Federal Reserve anti-money laundering official at a conference in March. But elements of the Treasury Department, as well as key players in the industry, are believed to strongly agree with the Federal Reserve System, in part to resolve a basic inconsistency in prosecutorial procedures. In contrast to BSA criminal cases such as the AmSouth matter, criminal money laundering cases involving banks brought under the Annunzio-Wylie Money Laundering Act of 1992 have always been overseen by Justice Department headquarters, not by U.S. Attorneys acting individually. The Justice Department established the Annunzio-Wylie Act case oversight policy in 1993 in consideration of the considerable impact that such a case could have on the banking system. The same consideration is leading the Federal Reserve, possibly with backing by the Treasury Department and industry, to request a similar shift in BSA criminal case oversight policy. I think it is safe to predict that they would find support inside DOJ headquarters and on Capitol Hill.
Longtime CT Blog readers will recall that I posted comments during the Riggs investigation to the effect that nobody in Washington wants to see an American corporation taken down, a la Arthur Andersen, even for numerous violations of the anti-money laundering laws. Centralizing BSA criminal case oversight in Washignton would sharply reduce the odds of an AmSouth-like prosecution without prior civil action by the regulators. The proponents would call that intelligent banking policy in the face of extremely costly regulation (see Dennis Lormel's post today). Opponents would label it undeserved protection for egregious and repeat BSA violators during the war on terror. « Close It
Hiyari Designation Highlights Zarqawi's Jordanian Support Network
By Matthew Levitt
Today's designation of Bilal Hiyari as a terror financier supporting Abu Musab al Zarqawi should not surprise. Hiyari's activities have long been known, as have Zarqawi's operational and logistical activities in his home country, Jordan.
For a detailed analysis of the Zarqawi network's activities in Jordan, based on interviews with Jordanian intelligence and special operations officers, see "Zarqawi's Jordanian Agenda"
Treasury Designates Al-Zarqawi Financier
By Andrew Cochran
The U.S. Treasury Department just announced the designation of Bilal Mansur Al-Hiyari for providing financial support to the al-Zarqawi network in Iraq. Al-Hiyari became acquainted with al-Zarqawi in 1989 when they met in Afghanistan. "According to information available to the U.S. Government, their relationship continued through the mid-1990s, when Al-Hiyari returned to Jordan where al-Zarqawi was serving out a sentence in Jordanian prison. According to information available to the U.S. Government, Al-Hiyari traveled to Iraq in 2003 where he sent funds to support al-Zarqawi's operations through several of al-Zarqawi's messengers. In October 2004, the State Security Court of Jordan convicted Al-Hiyari of providing funds to the Zarqawi Network. At the conclusion of his trial, however, he was released from prison."
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Immigration Fraud and Terror?Yet Again
By Bill West
Not that anyone with common sense needed a reminder, but yesterdays unsealing of a Federal indictment in New York against three defendants already in custody in Britain, charging them with four terrorism-related counts plotting to attack financial institution targets in New York, New Jersey and Washington, DC, clearly shows the linkage between immigration violations and national security threats against the United States. Count one of that indictment, which is available for review here on the CT Blog, charges Conspiracy to Use Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Persons Within the United States.
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In the Overt Acts section of Count One, Defendant Dhiren Barot, who is alleged to be a lead al-Qaeda operative, in or about June 2000applied to a college in New York in order to conceal the true purpose of his subsequent trips to the United States and was later admitted for the 2000 and 2001 school years, but never enrolled or attended any classes at the college. Further, on or about August 17, 2000, Dhiren Barot and Nadeem Tarmohamed, the defendants, entered the United States at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York, arriving on the same flight from the United Kingdom, and listed the same New York hotel on their immigration forms.
Further overt act allegations in the indictment relate to the defendants entry into and departure from the U.S. at various times so they could conduct surveillance against potential targets. Assuming the allegations in the indictment are true, every time the defendants entered the US, they committed immigration fraud by misrepresenting their intended purpose. Apart from that, Defendant Barot, by allegedly obtaining a student visa by clear and blatant fraud, and using that visa to enter the U.S. to further his terrorism efforts, is one of the clearest examples yet of abuse of the student visa system by terror suspects since the 9-11 hijackers.
Barot allegedly never enrolled nor attended the college wherein the visa issuance was based. This was in 2000 and 2001, presumably before the 9-11 attacks. Did that college report his non-attendance to the INS at the time? If so, did INS conduct any follow up investigative action? Even if the college made a routine notification to INS, it is highly unlikely that INS would have done anything with that information at the time, since such student visa violations, pre-911, were barely given a glance by INS enforcement personnel; there simply were too many such violations, too many other priorities and not enough resources to devote to such matters.
Which raises another interesting question. Post 9-11, the Government has made much of cracking down on student visa violators. Indeed, an enhanced computer tracking system was ramped up requiring colleges to make real-time reports of visa violators to ICE (INS DHS successor). ICE, however, is mired in its own internal mission struggles. Is it really focusing on and tracking down large numbers of student visa violators? The answer is no.
And, what does this mean for the larger issue of the US VISIT departure control system? US VISIT, the biometric nonimmigrant entry/exit control system that supposedly will track temporary foreign visitors to the U.S., was implemented soon after 9-11. The departure control part, the other big half, is still only in the test phase and will not likely be fully operational for another several years. Reliable analysis over the years has established that over 40% of the illegal alien population within the U.S. started out as nonimmigrant visa entrantsmeaning they originally entered the U.S. with a valid temporary visa and simply overstayed their authorized time or otherwise violated their status.
This does not bode well for enforcement follow up with US VISIT. Presumably, at some point the departure control system will be fully operational. That means the system will dutifully report nearly real-time non-departures of very many temporary entrant aliens to some element of the DHS. What then? What will happen to that huge body of violator lead information, among which will surely be some potential terror suspects like the defendants described in the just unsealed New York indictment? Currently, the investigative agency for DHS, ICE, is hardly capable of handling such a new mission, at least not without standing down from some other missions or without getting a large influx of new resources. And, such raw violator information will clearly require solid intelligence analysis to ferret out the genuine potential terror threats from the potential hotel housekeepers. And, since the US VISIT departure control system is still years from being operational, what about all those entrant violators since 9-11 that are being lost to the system now? Are there any plans to even try to look at those?
As noted at the beginning of this article, this latest New York indictment has again reminded us that immigration law violations are often inextricably linked to national security threats. Our political leaders and Government policy makers in the national security arena should always remember that. « Close It
The Burden v. The Benefit of Bank Secrecy Act Regulations
By Dennis Lormel
There has been an ongoing debate concerning the burden versus the benefit of Bank Secrecy Act reporting requirements. There are a number of factors which have driven this debate and that have caused serious concerns and confusion throughout the financial services industry. Reports that the Treasury Department is considering a plan to give the government access to international banking records has sharpened rhetoric and intensified the debate. Industry and the government must work together to establish a middle ground to develop a sense of balance between the burden and the benefit.
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. In view of stringent anti-money laundering and terrorist financing reporting requirements, there has been an ongoing debate concerning the burden versus the benefit of Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) reporting requirements. On each side of the debate, there are valid issues and concerns. Media articles in recent days have reported that a working group within the Treasury Department is considering a plan to give the government access to international banking records in accordance with the Intelligence Reform Bill passed by Congress in December 2004. The provision would require financial institutions to turn over certain cross-border electronic transmittals of funds in furtherance of anti-money laundering and terrorist financing initiatives. These reports have energized the debate and anxiety in all segments of the financial community.
We should take a step back and remember that the stringent BSA reporting requirements were implemented through the USA Patriot Act as a direct result of the events of 9/11. We have had to live with the realization that we as a society are vulnerable to terrorist attack and that our financial system is vulnerable to exploitation.
Interests on both sides of this debate must be sensitive to the legitimate concerns of the opposing viewpoint and strive to establish a middle ground that can best balance the burden versus the benefit of reporting. There will always be a burden on financial institutions due to the risk of their inherent vulnerability to exploitation. The government sector and the financial community must work together to establish systemic controls that help justify the burdens imposed relative to the benefits attained. They must also establish clear and consistent examination and review protocols. Financial institutions have valid concerns ranging from regulatory actions taken against banks to a lack of consistency and direction from federal regulators. In addition, there are issues of privacy concerns. The American Bankers Association (ABA), in partnership with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), is addressing these issues through the Bank Secrecy Act Advisory Group. The ABA and FinCEN have been engaged in identifying mechanisms to reduce the burden of reporting requirements.
By way of background, I established the Terrorist Financing Operations Section at the FBI in the aftermath of 9/11. Prior to that, I oversaw the FBIs Financial Crimes Program. In both capacities, I was a direct beneficiary of Suspicious Activity Reporting and BSA Compliance. Notably, in the post 9/11 environment, there were numerous successes in disrupting and dismantling terrorist activity through financial tracking. Unfortunately, most of these successes cannot be publicized due to investigative and intelligence considerations.
Finance and communications are the two key vulnerabilities to terrorists. We must ensure every available tool is used to exploit these vulnerabilities. Tactical and strategic investigative strategies have been implemented based on BSA reporting. The government clearly must do a better job of providing information and guidance to the financial sector.
To reiterate an earlier comment, I was a direct beneficiary of financial tracking and BSA reporting. Based on my experience and in this context, I believe the benefit outweighs the burden. However, the government needs to articulate clear guidance to relieve undue burden. In addition, the government must develop and implement consistent mechanisms to provide information to the financial sector to demonstrate the value and importance of strong anti-money laundering programs. The financial community would better justify the burden and the expense of BSA requirements if they truly understood their contributions « Close It
Terrorism Financing: A New Emphasis on Tracking. But Will It Be Effective?
By Victor Comras
A major tactical argument is brewing within the government, the banking community and among terrorism financing experts over whether to freeze or to track funds related to terrorism financing. The initial response after the 9/11 attack was to seek out and freeze bank accounts and other economic assets associated with al Qaeda, the Taliban and associated individuals and entities. This approach was reflected in President Bushs September 24, 2001 Executive Order and in a series of UN Security Council Resolutions. Within a short period after 9/11 some $132 million in assets were reportedly seized. Much of this belonged to the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. Since then it has proved particularly difficult to find and freeze additional terrorism related funds. And the effort in the United States turned to following or tracking suspicious funds. These efforts are now being expanded to possibly cover the millions of international transactions that flow through the US banking facilities. But, the international banking community may resist these moves. They already feel burdened by account search and freezing orders, and by required due diligence and know your customer rules. Many in the banking community, and the international community believe that the emphasis should remain on finding and freezing terrorist assets. They are concerned that tracking large numbers of transactions will unduly burden the international banking system, and provide little results.
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Tracking funds, the US hopes, will lead investigators to recipient terrorist cells as well as help identify sources of terrorism funding. But, the successes -- and there have been some are still few and far between. The difficulties with tracking were described in some detail by Senior Customs Agent David Kane in an affidavit filed in the SAFA cases. He told the court the finances of the Safa Group, including charities required by law to open their books to the public, exhibited a convoluted web of multiple transactions between related corporations and charities that made it virtually impossible for federal investigators to ascertain where the money ultimately went. Indeed, the current investigation has traced millions of dollars through layers of related companies and charities to the Isle of Man from which point the trail cannot practically be followed. This is why even the successful terrorism funding investigations usually end up with plea bargains on lesser charges. Some experts argue that the US must continue to pursue freezing actions in order to punish terrorist financiers and deter terrorist financing. Putting their assets at risk may be the most effective penalty and deterrent we have.
FinCen is the US agency most active in combing banking data for leads to terrorism. They mine data collected under the Bank Secrecy Act and link it with law enforcement, commercial, and other intelligence data sources to follow the money and to identify the financial networks tied to terrorism and other illegal activities. OFAC, on the other hand, is charged with issuing asset and bank account freezing orders, and following up with banks to ensure that targeted assets are identified and frozen.
Some 14.8 million reports were filed with FinCen in 2004. These reports were imposed on the US banking and financial community by the Bank Secrecy Act These reports included 663,655 so-called SARs (Suspicious Activity Reports), an increase of over 250,000 in one year. SARs provide the basic gristmill for possible money laundering and terrorism funding research and investigation. But only a very small percentage of these actually lead to any investigations.
The United States has been the biggest champion of tracking terrorist funds. While other countries have also established Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs) similar to FinCen, these FIUs are, for the most part, less active. They rely heavily on their banking and financial communities to do their own self-policing. Few countries other than the United States have imposed penalties on banks for failing to file SARs or to meet other due diligence requirements. This is one reason why the US has decided to look more closely at the millions of international transactions that flow through the US banking system. According to a report in the New York Times, the Bush administration is working on a new plan that will give US government agencies access to logs of international wire transfers into and out of American banks. Such access is authorized by Section 6302 of The Intelligence Reform Bill passed by Congress in December, 2004. That bill authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to prescribe regulations requiring financial institutions to report on cross-border electronic transmittals of funds. But first the Secretary must consult with the Federal Reserve and inform Congress of the rationale and criteria used to determine that such regulations are reasonably necessary to identify money laundering and terrorism financing.
The American banking community is beginning to take umbrage at these potential new measures. They are concerned that further government probing will encroach on client and banking privacy, and will place increased reporting burdens, costs and risks on their business activities. They are also concerned that they will simply loose business to overseas banks « Close It
Al-Qaida in Iraq Claims Suicide Car Bomb Attacks in Al-Qaim
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Jihad Committee in Mesopotamia--led by wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has issued three claims of responsibility for a series of ambushes and suicide car bombings targeting the local U.S. military headquarters in the city of Al-Qaim, near Iraq's western border with Syria. Referring to Al-Qaim as "our gateway to jihad", a communiqu from Al-Qaida further admonished the "soldiers of Allah" to "hold firm to your swords because there is no time left and the jihad is our lifeline."
Click to view English translations c/o Globalterroralert.com: - Apr. 12 claim for the April 11 battles in the city of Al-Qaim - Apr. 12 claim for four suicide car bombings in Al-Qaim - Apr. 12 statement on the "victorious" battles in Al-Qaim
Reader rebuts Associated Press story about Senators' disclosure of CIA agent's name
By Andrew Cochran
Received this from faithful reader Matthew Nolan: "The story on the right hand bar regarding Kerry and Lugar blowing the cover of a CIA agent is garbage. A simple Google search reveals this... Mr. Armstrong works for the Directorate of Intelligence and has been cited on numerous occasions. There's even an unclassified report of his available here from the CIA website. I realize the story isn't yours, but I believe it's garbage reporting from the AP and I would hope that you all would not give it the credit of inclusion on your blog." I note that the web link includes another link to Fulton Armstrong's bio. I've taken the story off the sidebar, and I think the AP owes the Senators an official retraction.
Will New Indictment Lead DHS to Include Banks on "Hit List?"
By Andrew Cochran
Today's indictment of 3 men for allegedly plotting to bomb American financial institutions might have been a big surprise to the Homeland Security Department. Two weeks ago, Justin Rood at Congressional Quarterly reported that DHS had excluded banks and other financial institutions from a list of likely terrorist targets over the next 5 years. Guess they can update that list now, and new DHS Secretary Chertoff has his work cut out for him.
Federal Indictment Unsealed Against Trio Accused of Targeting Citigroup, NYSE for terror attacks
By Evan Kohlmann
(Associated Press): Three men have been indicted on charges they plotted to attack financial institutions in New York, New Jersey and Washington. A four-count indictment unsealed Tuesday accuses Dhiran Barot, Nadeem
Tarmohammed and Qaisar Shaffi of scouting the New York Stock Exchange
and Citicorp Building in New York, the Prudential Building in Newark,
N.J., and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in the
District of Columbia. The three men, already in custody in England, were charged with three
conspiracy counts and providing material support to terrorists. U.S. officials claim that Barot is a senior al-Qaida figure, known
variously as Abu Eisa al-Hindi, Abu Musa al-Hindi and Issa al-Britani,
who scouted prominent financial targets in the United States at the
behest of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden... Barot, 32, was charged there with possessing reconnaissance plans for
the U.S. institutions and notebooks containing information on
explosives, poisons, chemicals and related matters "of a kind likely to
be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism."
Eisa al-Hindi (a.k.a. Dhiran Barot) is the same extremist leader who wrote the infamous jihad text, The Army of Madinah in Kashmir. According to that book, Barot was born in the U.K. as a Hindu, but later converted to Islam and fought alongside Muslim militants in Kashmir. After graduating on and working as a combat trainer at a mujahideen terror camp in Afghanistan, al-Hindi moved to southern Thailand in 1998 and married a local woman there. In his book, Barot argues that the use by the mujahideen of "'stealthy' modern day war stratagems, which are commonly used by the western world to bring others to their knees... could be long overdue." Barot highlights several desirable "war strategems" in particular, including "Economical warfare", "Drug warfare", "Germ warfare", and "Chemical warfare."
Click to view excerpts of The Army of Madinah in Kashmir c/o Globalterroralert.com Click to view unsealed four-count indictment c/o Foxnews.com
Viktor Bout's Excellent Bosnian Adventure
By Douglas Farah
It seems as though the fingerprints of Viktor Bout, arms trafficker extraordinaire, can be found in most places that have had trouble in recent years. The most recent intelligence reports I received come from Bosnia, and show Bout has been an active partner of Mr. Hasan Cengic, the head of radical Islam in Bosnia and key organized crime figure. Interesting how Bout shows up in numerous Muslim-related conflicts, often where U.S. policy makers are having a particularly difficult time in getting weapons to one side or the other.
The paper trail left by Bout in Bosnia makes it hard to discern exactly what he was up to there, but in March 2001 he was leasing two Illyushin Il-72s from BIO Air Services, and had them based in Sarjah, UAE. Cengic, on the U.S. Treasury Department's list of banned individuals and chief arms provider to the Bosnia Muslims during the Bosnia conflict (where al Qaeda and other radical elements, led by Cengic, took control of the lucrative arms trade), controls BIO Air. The European intelligence report says that BIO Air leased two of its aircraft to Bout after illegally importing them into Bosnia in the first place. Before the aircraft were owned by BIO Air they belonged to Atlas Iran. Cengic spent much of the Bosnia war in Iran and worked as an Iranian intelligence agent. Here is my complete blog.
Al-Qaida Releases Video of April 8 Suicide Car Bombing North of Baghdad
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq--led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released video footage of an April 8, 2005 suicide car bombing attack on a U.S. convoy north of Baghdad. According to an Al-Qaida communique accompanying the video, "three Humvees were destroyed as a result of the attack, killing everyone on board."
Click to view video excerpts c/o Globalterroralert.com
Terrorism-Related Congressional Hearings This Week
By Andrew Cochran
Here are the open terrorism-related hearings in the U.S. Congress this week, with several rescheduled from last week. I've added links to several key hearings, including one on the search-and-wiretap authority under Section 218 of the USA Patriot Act, in the "Events" box in the left sidebar.
Plan to access banking records sure to spark Congressional review (UPDATED 4-10)
By Andrew Cochran
Today's New York Times story (registration required - see other story here) on the Bush Administration's possible plans to seek access to international banking records will surely spark many phone calls and visits to Capitol Hill. The plan was authorized in section 6302 of the new intel reform act, titled, "Reporting of Certain Cross-Border Transmittal of Funds." It says that the Treasury Secretary "shall prescribe regulations requiring such financial institutions as the Secretary determines to be appropriate to report to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network certain cross-border electronic transmittals of funds, if the Secretary determines that reporting of such transmittals is reasonably necessary to conduct the efforts of the Secretary against money laundering and terrorist financing." But the authorization is not open-ended - the Treasury Secretary has to report to the relevant Congressional committees before implementing the plan. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Sen. Richard Shelby, has already planned a series of hearings on terrorist financing hearings in the next two months, and this will fit nicely into their plans. Expect the U.S. House Financial Services Committee (where I worked for almost 3 years), chaired by Rep. Michael Oxley, to extensively also question the plan. The full text of the intel reform act is in the left sidebar. I'll have more about this in the coming days. UPDATE, 4/10: Today's WSJ (sorry, paid subscription) reports that federal regulators will meet with industry on this at the May 18 meeting of the Bank Secrecy Act Advisory Group, which includes all the players.
When Will Cleveland Imam Go To Immigration Court?
By Bill West
Last month, Fawaz Mohammed Damrah (aka Damra), the Imam of Clevelands largest mosque, lost his appeal before the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals stemming from his conviction last summer of having obtained his naturalization unlawfully by concealing his links to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist organization and to other radical Islamic operatives in New York before he became a U.S. citizen. The Plain Dealer newspaper in Cleveland, which has been covering the Damrah case for a long time, reported this latest event in an article dated March 17.
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Damrah, upon conviction, had his naturalized U.S. citizenship revoked. That revocation would not be final, however, and removal proceedings (deportation) could not begin until after the appeals process. While Damrah may appeal his case to the U.S. Supreme Court, for the purposes of initiating deportation action, the Government is now essentially free to proceed. Interestingly, given the vagaries of the Immigration and Nationality Act, it is likely that Damrah, now a lawful permanent resident alien again, can be charged with only a limited number of removal violations. Such violations, however, would likely relate to the very activities of support for the PIJ and his connections to other radical Islamists that resulted in his criminal conviction. Deportation charges are not criminal and are separate proceedings; therefore, double jeopardy within the Federal criminal justice system is not an issue and the same evidence that was used in the criminal case can be utilized in Immigration Court.
The Government might well choose to await any action by Damrahs attorneys relative to a possible Supreme Court appeal before taking further action, though it is under no obligation to do so. Contested deportation cases, even if the respondents are detained, can take many months and even years to resolve. So, when ultimately the Feds do charge the Cleveland Imam with removal violations, the case may well drag on for a long time. The saga of Fawaz Damrah, which has been on the Governments radar screen for more than a decade, proves that while the wheels of justice may sometimes grind slowly, at least they do move. « Close It
The Passing of Pope John Paul II
By Mike Chandler
During the past ten days or so we have been able to witness what, hopefully, will prove to be one of the most effective, long term antidotes to Islamic extremism and with it the brand of terrorism it nurtures.
During the period when Pope John Paul II began slowly and, by all accounts, peacefully to succumb to his illness, thousands and thousands of Catholics have travelled to the Saint Peters Square in Rome to pray and to be as close as possible to him, offering their prayers and their support. Then, after he died, millions have made the pilgrimage to Rome, waiting quietly and patiently for up to twelve hours to file past his body, flanked by the Vatican Swiss Guards, as he lay-in-state in St.Peters Basilica. Today, Friday 8th April 2005 millions more, all around the world, have joined in what has been described as the biggest funeral service ever seen.
Present at todays Service of Resurrection in St. Peters Square were heads of state and/or their representatives from 200 countries from all across the globe, including those of Jordan, Syria, Gulf States, Iran and many other Muslim countries. Along with them were the clergy, not just those from the Roman Catholic world church, but every other religion, including many of the Islamic faith.
If ever there was a sign and the opportunity for a renaissance of secularity and religious tolerance, it was today, not only in Rome but in many cities around the world. In Iraq, Lebanon, Poland, the Philippines and Syria, for example, people have watched on giant television screens and prayed along with the service being beamed from St.Peters Square or held their services of their own.
The other long term factor that is worthy of note is the vast numbers of young people who came to pray for the Pope and then to pay their respects, to thank him for his leadership over the past twenty-six years and bid him farewell. The number of young people is very significant, as they are, as the Pope himself said, the future of the church and it is they who can ensure that the religious tolerance necessary for a more peaceful world becomes a reality.
Let us hope that today will mark that turning point; that politicians, the clergy of all religions and civil society will join together in a strong global campaign against terrorism. Pope John Paul II has not been without his critics, but the scenes in Rome and elsewhere, of the past days are a magnificent tribute to what he has achieved and for what he stands. Whoever is the next Pope has a difficult act to follow.
Video: British-born Mujahideen Were Ordered to Kill Americans in Bosnia
By Evan Kohlmann
For those interested in Al-Qaida's role in the Balkans, a new video is available for download from Globalterroralert.com. The video contains audio excerpts recorded in 1997 of British foreign mujahideen veterans discussing their orders to kill American troops enforcing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Click to view video c/o Globalterroralert.com
Europe: Biometric Passports May be Years Away
By Victor Comras
Europe is moving slowly to issue new biometric passports that will comply with new US Entry requirements set to go into effect in October 2005 (See Bill West's Blog on "Border Security?") . The EU directives calling for new biometric passports only came into effect this year. And it appears that only Austria, Ireland, Slovenia and Luxembourg are likely to meet the October 2005 deadline set by the United States. This has forced EU Justice and Security Commissioner Franco Frattini to ask the US to delay implementation of the new US VISIT passport regulations until October 2006. If no extension is granted, a great number of EU citizens who currently benefit from the US visa waiver program will no longer be able to enter the US without a visa.
The EU adopted the biometric passport directive as part of its agreed strategy to combat terrorism and illegal immigration. Beginning in January 2005 EU member states were to incorporate into newly-issued passports digital facial images (within 18 months) and fingerprints (within 3 years). A Committee is to be set up of member state representatives to decide on the details of the fingerprinting process. Some member countries have begun to issue new passports, but the process of passport replacement has been delayed in several member countries by "technical difficulties."
EU ministers will decide on April 20 how to proceed and whether to impose reciprocal visa requirements for US citizens seeking entry to the EU. A recent report issued by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre indicates that several challenges still must be overcome regarding the widespread use of biometic travel documents. These include the adoption of common standards, safeguards against privacy abuse, and the lack of independent empirical data concerning biometric accuracy and risks of alteration.
Several European countries want to opt for use of embedded contactless chips to house passport biometric data. They are uncomfortable with the open availability of biometric information in the passports. But many of their reseachers are not yet comfortable that these chips will not be vulnerable to "snooping" from a distance. The US is also concerned that the use of such chips could be accessed by terrorists to identify and single out Americans. These differences are also delaying the issuance of a standard EU passport.
It appears from the US side that the US will resist any further delays.
CFR Backgrounder: Does the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood have ties to terrorism?
By Evan Kohlmann
NOTE: This link is being provided for informational purposes only and I am not necessarily endorsing the viewpoint of CFR or other analysts quoted herein. I consider the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to be non-violent but still a fairly radical organization that can act as a breeding ground for more hardline terrorist groups like Al-Gamaat al-Islamiyya, Al-Jihad, and Al-Qaida. Various branches of the MB, such as the Egyptian Doctor's Union, have also acted directly as terrorist financial fronts. These issues are not fully addressed in the CFR backgrounder below.
"Does the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood have ties to terrorism?" "Its unclear. A widespread Islamist organization founded in 1928, the Brotherhood seeks to Islamize societies from the ground up and compel governments in Muslim countries to adhere to sharia, or Islamic law. At various times in its history, the group has used or supported violence and has been repeatedly banned in Egypt for attempting to overthrow Cairos secular government. Since the 1970s, however, the Egyptian Brotherhood has disavowed violence and sought to participate in Egyptian politics, though a government ban on the organization continues and the group operates largely underground. The Brotherhood is not on the U.S. State Departments list of terrorist organizations..." [Click to read more at the Council on Foreign Relation's "Terrorism: Questions and Answers" website]
Want a Truly Fair & Balanced Debate on the Patriot Act?
By Andrew Cochran
I understand and appreciate that there can be honest and dignified disagreements on the provisions of the USA Patriot Act - I was a counsel on one of the congressional committees involved in drafting it - but there are a lot of "urban legends" floating out there about what the Act actually does. Andrew McCarthy's column today at National Review Online exposes and debunks some of the most egregious, foisted upon an unsuspecting public by the Fox News "legal expert." I found another at the campus newspaper of the University of Oregon, to the extent that Section 207 "gives federal officials the right to monitor any individual communications, through a wiretap or other means." That is absolute baloney - 207, by its title, applies only to "non-United States persons who are agents of a foreign power" and gives federal agents no new power. The best website that I know with reasoned, balanced debates on the Act remains Patriot Debates, which I discussed early in its existence, is updated often, and is linked in the "Centers & Websites" box in the right sidebar. I highly recommend it to campus newspaper editorialists, TV "experts," and just about everyone else.
Al-Qaida Releases Video of "Battle of Abu Anas al-Shami" at Abu Ghraib Prison
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Committee in Mesopotamia--led by wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released video footage allegedly depicting a coordinated insurgent attack on Abu Ghraib prison (west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad) that began late last Saturday.
Click to view video c/o Globalterroralert.com (As seen on NBC Nightly News)
New Evidence of al Qaeda's Interest in West Africa
By Douglas Farah
Since I wrote the first story of al Qaeda's ties to the West African diamond trade, and intensifying after the book came out, parts of the U.S intelligence community, particularly in the CIA and FBI have maintaned there was no al Qaeda presence or interest in West Africa and no historical evidence the group was interested in diamonds or the conflict there. They have been especially adamant that Liberia, as a predominately Christian nation, would not be a place that bin Laden was interested in.
While there has been abundant circumstantial evidence that this was not true, but rather a reflection of the deep ignorance of al Qaeda's history on the African continent, this "fact" has been repeated in responses to Congressonal inquiries, in inter-agency meetings and in meetings with me and others. From the multiple reports on the lack of real information the community had to work with, its erroneous assumptions about al Qaeda are clearly documented. So it is fascinating to read a recent interview in the Al Quds al-Arabi newspaper of March 5, with Nasir al-Bahari, AKA Abu Jandal, a bodyguard of Osama bin Laden. It is one of a series of interviews with the man, where he describes his life with bin Laden, living with al Qaeda and other insights into the terrorist organization, not as a critic, but as an insider relating his story to a sympathetic audience.
In speaking of life with bin Laden in the Sudan, Abu Jandal relates how bin Laden was constantly listening to and analyzing news from the rest of Africa. So this is before 1996, when bin Laden moved back to Afghanistan.
"As for enlarging the scope of al Qaeda in Africa, that is true," he said. "Through Sheik Osama's following of events in all the states near Sudan...even events in Liberia, although it was a faraway country in West Africa. Events took place there, and we did not know what was going on. But through the al Qaeda movement and some Islamic groups, it became clear that the struggle there was an ethnic-religious struggle between Muslims and Christians in a country where Muslims account for 20 percent of the population. That was why many al Qaeda members wished to move jihad to that country, according to al Qaeda's way and the Afghan way. A leader of the Islamic groups in Liberia told us 'We wished we could have contacted the Arab Afghans, so they would shift the balance of power in that struggle in Liberia.' Hence, Sheik Osama's activities in Africa."
Seems pretty clear the interest was there. And, as the book shows, with Ibrahim Bah, the former mujahadeen, in Taylor's inner circle, it was a happy marriage indeed. One more blind spot in an intelligence community flying blind.
5 Foreign Terrorists Killed in Iraqi Raid on Samarra
By Evan Kohlmann
This from the Iraqi Government Communications Directorate... "Troops from the Ministry of Interior conducted a raid east of Samarra on April 1. The raid resulted in the killing of five foreign terrorists and the capturing of two other terrorists. The raid was conducted based on an MOI intelligence report identifying a terrorist camp and a house east of Samarra. The team achieved their objective killing five and detaining two terrorists. The five killed in action were all identified as foreign fighters including two Saudi Arabian nationals, one Yemeni national, one Syrian national, and one Afghani national."
Congressional Schedule Changing
By Andrew Cochran
If you downloaded the schedule of this week's hearings in the U.S. Congress, you can now start crossing off those on Thursday. Many Congressmen are looking for flights to Rome to attend the funeral of Pope John Paul II, or will return to their districts to attend special Masses with constituents, so Capitol Hill press offices are pumping out hearing and meeting postponements.
Al-Qaida Claims "Battle of Abu Anas al-Shami" at Abu Ghraib Prison West of Baghdad
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Jihad Committee in Mesopotamia--led by wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has issued numerous claims of responsibility for a two-day prolonged insurgent offensive on Abu Ghraib prison west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The offensive--dubbed the "Battle of Abu Anas al-Shami" after a slain top Al-Qaida commander in Iraq--allegedly included rocket and mortar barrages and at least seven separate suicide car bombers. A statement from Abu Usaid al-Iraqi (the commander of Al-Qaida's Military Wing in Iraq) claimed that the mujahideen were able to seize control of a prison tower, destroying several armored vehicles and even an Apache attack helicopter.
Click to view video of Al-Qaida rocket attack on Abu Ghraib c/o Globalterroralert.com
Bombings in Thailand
By Zachary Abuza
On Sunday night, three near simultaneous bombings were detonated in southern Thailand, raising fears that the situation there is getting out of control. Since the unrest began on 4 January 2004, more than 600 people have been killed. Most of them, however, were victims of assassinations, not bombings. Between January 2004 and October 2004, there were roughly 40 bombings, and under ten people killed, though with many hundred wounded. Most of the violence were Molotov cocktails/arson attacks, drive by shootings and machete attacks. The few bombs that were used were relatively unsophisticated pipe bombs. The victims were predominantly agents of the state (police, soldiers, local government officials), with the number of civilians growing.
Yet in the summer of 2004, a number of things happened.
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First the bombs became slightly larger and more sophisticated, being detonated by cell phone. While most of the bombs were approximately 2kg, a number were larger, in the 10kg range. They still have been able to detonate bombs larger than 10 kg on a regular basis. Militants attempted to use excelerents. Second, there were a handful of double bombings. Third, beginning in August the insurgents were using road-side IEDs to target army convoys. In several cases the insurgents used delayed bombs to target police and military investigators following a smaller initial explosion.
Following the Thai Armys debacle at Tak Bai on 25 October 2005, the violence hit a new level. Between 25 October and the end of January 2005, the violence surged and included roughly, 42 bombings, 5 double or triple bombings, 5 fire-bombings, 5 attempted bombings, 32 assassinations, and over 32 arson attacks. Over 60 people were killed, including 15 police and four soldiers, and over 200 people were injured. Since October, bombings have averaged almost 15 per month. On 17 February, the first car bomb, comprised of 100kg of ammonium nitrate and diesel fuel was detonated, killing six.
While the three bombs on Sunday were not large or sophisticated they are important for four reasons:
1) Simultaneous bombings across two provinces are a hallmark of a sophisticated organization. The militants are more sophisticated than they are often given credit for.
2) Two of the three occurred in Songkhla province, which has been spared most of the violence, and is not seen as a safe haven for the militants. While some Thai security authorities stated that the militants were forced there because of the effective counter-insurgency operations in Narathiwat, Yala and Patani, there is considerable consternation that they are moving closer to the tourist regions. Indeed at least four foreigners were injured in the attack at Hat Yai airport.
3) They bombed the regional airport at Hat Yai, the largest in the deep-south, and also targeted a hotel. Coupled with an attack on a rubber plantation, it is clear the militants seek to target the southern economy. This fits into a pattern that we saw develop in 2004 to the present.
4) These attacks have come at a time when the Prime Minister has acknowledged his policies of the past year were overly aggressive, and that the government would try to pursue a softer approach. These militants have shown no interest in negotiating; indeed none of the organizations believed to be involved has taken credit for the attacks nor posted their demands. They seem interested only in provoking a heavy-handed government response that will create the conditions for their organizations to flourish.
Over one year into the insurgency, there is still precious little understanding of the movement and organizations involved. While there is no evidence that JI has been directly involved, there are clear social ties between JI and some of the Thai militants. JI reached out to them in 1999-2000 inviting them to join an umbrella grouping known as the Rabitatul Mujiheddin, while Hambali and his lieutenants sought to recruit Thais to carry out terrorist operations in Bangkok. We need to be aware that at some point, if the conflict continues to surge, that JI will inject itself, taking the unrest to a whole new level. « Close It
Introducing New Contributing Expert R.P. Eddy
By Andrew Cochran
We are very pleased to welcome R.P. Eddy as our newest Contributing Expert. Mr. Eddy has served in several senior positions with the U.S. government, including Director of Counterterrorism at the White House National Security Council; Chief of Staff to the US Ambassador to the UN; and Senior Advisor for Intelligence and Counterterrorism to the Secretary of Energy. Now Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism at the Manhattan Institute, R. P. Eddy founded and is Executive Director of the Center for Tactical Counterterrorism (CTCT) which focuses on the role of police in the fight against terror. CTCT leverages a global network of premier counterterrorism experts and brings their collective experience to bear on the counterterror challenges of New York City. Eddy has worked with the New York Police Department, the Greek Government, the United Nations and various multinational corporations on terrorism and security issues. Mr. Eddy also serves as Managing Director of Global Macro Risk Analysis for a leading Wall Street research firm. His full bio is included in the downloadable file with those of the other Contributing Experts.
U.S. Congress This Week: Hearing Schedule (UPDATED)
By Andrew Cochran
The U.S. Congress returns this week and holds numerous terrorism-related hearings, including the first on the reauthorization of the USA PATRIOT Act. Here is a Microsoft Word file of the scheduled hearings which are open to the public, and several of the most important are in the "Events" box in the left sidebar. UPDATE: Contributing Expert Lee Wolosky was scheduled to testify at a hearing this week of the U.S. House Financial Services Oversight Subcommittee, but that has been rescheduled from this Thursday to a later date.
New Video Footage from Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq--led by most wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released video footage of several recent attacks in Sunni central Iraq, including a mortar attack on a U.S. base in Baqubah and a roadside bomb attack on an American Stryker armored vehicle in Mosul.
Click to view video excerpts c/o Globalterroralert.com: - Apr. 1 video of Al-Qaida mortar attack on U.S. base in Baqubah - Apr. 3 video of Al-Qaida bomb attack on Stryker armored vehicle in Mosul
KEEPING SCORE ON INTELLIGENCE ACCOUNTABILITY
By Larry Johnson
by
Larry C. Johnson
The unfortunate impression left by the recent report on intelligence failures submitted by the Robb/Silbermann commission suggests that the CIA in general failed. Yet, as noted in a previous post on this site, we need to go beyond the generalities and look for the specifics of who failed. We need to look at the chain of command from the top down at CIA and ask who, if anyone, has been held accountable. The short answer is, not many. Keep on reading for specifc names.
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For starters we have George "Slam Dunk" Tenet. Tenet had the ultimate responsibility for ensuring that all intelligence provided to the President was thoroughly vetted and challenged. Tenet sent mixed messages. He did intervene in the fall of 2002 to stop the White House from misusing bogus intellligence about Iraq's alleged effort to acquire uranium from Niger. Then, did a complete reversal in January and February of 2003, and allowed this info to stay in the President's State of the Union Address. Tenet is gone but got the medal of freedom for his "excellent" work. Message to analysts, if you screw up but are a loyal team player you will be rewarded.
The Deputy Director for Intelligence until December 2004 was Jamie Miscik. Jamie is a nice lady and would be a good neighbor. But she too failed to do her job and did not aggressively probe analysts writing on WMD issues about the strength and veracity of their sources. She got the top job in the analytical community thanks to making a favorable impression on Tenet while assigned to the NSC in the mid-1990s. How much blame should Miscik shoulder for the debacle in Iraq? Some, particularly to the extent that she failed to insist that analysis based on faulty sources should have been subjected to greater scrutiny. Nonetheless she does not deserve a lot of blame because the much maligned October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate was generated in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) by old hands who were not under her control.
It is astonishing at this juncture that there has not been a major shake up at the NIC. In fact, those responsible for the sections with the most errors are still on the job and, in one instance, given more authority. The principal drafters of the October 2002 NIE were Robert Walpole, National Intelligence Officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation; Lawrence K. Gershwin, the National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology; retired Army Maj. Gen. John R. Landry, National Intelligence Officer for Conventional Military Issues, and Paul R. Pillar, NIO for the Near East and South Asia. Walpole oversaw the entire effort but had specific responsibility for nuclear issues. Gershwin handled issues related to biological weapons, Gordon focused on chemical weapons, and Pillar dealt with the issues pertaining to international terrorism.
Of the four, the one who got it right in the estimate was Paul Pillar. Yet, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney have continued to insist that Pillar's judgments on terrorism were wrong. Fortunately for Pillar his judgments have been endorsed by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the 9-11 Commission, among others. But Pillar is not out of danger. Only he has been attacked by reporters who are perceived as mouthpieces for the Bush Administration (Robert Novak and John Roberts). He has been called disloyal for the simple act of providing an assessment of what was happening in Iraq that did not square with the wishful thinking and rosy scenarios emanating from the West Wing of the White House. Message to analysts, be careful about telling the truth to the President because you will be accused of being disloyal.
What has been the fate of Walpole, Gershwin, and Landry? Even though they presided over a sloppy NIE that was used in part to justify the war in Iraq, they are still on the job. In fact, Gershwin and Landry were given the task in the fall of 2003 of doing the review of their respective parts about what went wrong in the 2002 October estimate. Not bad, when you screw up you get to do the post-mortem to find out what went wrong. Gershwin now has the job of National Intelligence Officer for Intelligence Assurance. Message to analysts, even if you write a bad estimate you will get a promotion.
The President, regardless of political affiliation, needs an intelligence community that will tell him or her uncomfortable truths. If President Bush is serious about fixing the problems in the intelligence community he needs to start with a house cleaning at the NIC. Messrs. Walpole, Gershwin and Landry should be fired. That would send a clear message to the analysts that sloppy work based on questionable sources and weak assumptions will be punished. At this point, however, no one of any consequence has been called on the carpet.
I am afraid, however, that those guys will skate and that Paul Pillar will be fingered for blame. Firing Pillar would send the wrong message, namely, if you tell the President truths that go against the Administration's policy goals you will be punished. Analysts still on the job are watching carefully how this plays out. Fixing the problems at throughout the intelligence community starts with insisting officers be held accountable and that accountablility starts at the top. « Close It
Palestinian Terrorists Going Political?
By Matthew Levitt
On March 28, Hamas formally announced they would join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The next day, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) members attended the PLOs executive committee meeting in a move that could lead to their eventual entering the organization. At the same time, Israeli forces uncovered a PIJ cell manufacturing and testing Qassam rockets in Jenin.
Muhammad al-Hindi, a prominent PIJ leader, stated that the group was not ready to formally join the PLO, but wanted to discuss mechanisms to rebuild the organization: We will see whether we can agree. We will also discuss the PLOs political program.
One of those detained in the Qassam rocket plot, Muhammad Mashkah, had recently returned to the Jenin area after being released by Israel as part of the agreement following last months peace conference in Egypt. Another detainee, Ahmed Mashkah, was allowed to return to Jenin in recent days for the first time since his eviction from the Gaza Strip in 2003.
Beyond the possibility of joining the PLO, Hamas has also announced its intent to field candidates in the upcoming Palestinian legislative elections. PIJ is still considering whether or not to follow suit.
As Hamas, PIJ, and other terrorist groups consider participating in mainstream Palestinian politics, it is critical that such participation be predicated not only on winning elections but on the larger democratic principle of cessation of violence. If these groups continue to use violence against civilians, peace negotiators will be put in the difficult, weakening position of distinguishing politicians from those in the terrorist wings of their associated organizations. In fact, such wings are all part of a singular whole whose activities -- political, social and terrorist -- are intimately interconnected.
Read more about the conundrum created by terrorist groups participating in mainstream politics.
Iraqi Security Forces Claim Capture of Foreign Terrorists
By Evan Kohlmann
This from the Iraqi Government Communications Directorate:
"Acting on a tip from local Iraqi citizens, Security Forces in Iraq have detained Shakara Kheel, 38 years old, Pakistan nationality, in the community of Munirah. During extensive interviews with Kheel, Security Forces learned that he harbored terrorists and conducted weapons trafficking. Local citizens allege Shakara Kheel beheaded personnel who worked with the Iraqi government and Security Forces.
In further operations, Security Forces captured in Mosul, on 20 February 2005 Alawi al Raliya, Afghan nationality, he is also known as Abu Zad. Alawi al Raliya was described to Security Forces as the commander and operational planner for a terrorist cell that specialized in improvised explosive device attacks against Iraqi civilians and Security Forces."
Tariq Ramadan: The Case of the Grand Deception
By Steven Emerson
No case illustrates the murderous deception of Western society by Islamic militants more than the recent episode involving Tariq Ramadan, the Swiss professor who was denied a visa to teach at the University of Notre Dame. His supporters in the U.S. rallied vigorously around Mr. Ramadan, protesting with total moral certitude the politically outrageous move by the US government to muzzle a Muslim "moderate". The coalition to defend Ramadan included The New York Times, The Washington Post, academic boards around the country, Islamic advocacy groups and human rights groups. Their near unanimous message was that Mr. Ramadan was a genuine "moderate" and "Islamic pluralist", but that even if one disagreed with some of his statements, Mr. Ramadan surely should have been entitled to have his ideas debated in the great free marketplace of ideas of the American campus
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Miraculously, the coalition of high priests of political correctness, Wahabi groups masquerading as pluralists, and the elite censors of fair and balanced journalism did not prevail. Mr. Ramadan was not given a visa and soon, in an act of righteous indignation, refused to reapply for another visa.
Even after the murderous actions by Islamic militants on 9-11 in the US, and in fact in carrying out or planning terrorist operations in more than 90 countries between 1990 and 2003, the American intelligentsia in a devilish collusion with radical Islamic groups hiding under false veneer, have managed to perpetrate the grand deception of militant Islam: pretending to be moderate, democrats with a small d, pluralists and victims of hate, radical Islamic groups have continued to invert reality, turning facts on their head, in a stunning ability to anoint themselves as the victims of hate as opposed to the murderous reality that they are the progenitors of hate. Where else could radical Islamic leaders like Yousef Al Qardawi, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood who calls for killing Jews (not just Israelis but Jews) and Americans (not just occupiers) be described as "moderate" or a pro-western "reformer" or variations of this theme (Washington Post, New York Times, Christian Science Monitor, La Times)? Where else could one hear that Jihad was a "beautiful" concept, as was broadcast on NPR recently, devoid of any violent or militant meaning? NPR's commentator was the daughter of an Islamic American leader who justified the killing of Robert Kennedy-a fact NPR withheld from its listeners but paled in comparison to its brazen willingness to air a de facto commercial for al Qaeda with the commentator ending her Islamist (tax-payer subsidized) infomercial with the following line: "Someday, I hope 'jihad' will find its way back into our lexicon, when it can be used properly, in sentences like 'She's on a jihad to achieve the American Dream.'"
In the decade and a half before 9-11, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al Qaeda and virtually every other radical Islamic group and leader successfully perpetrated the most brilliant strategic enemy deception in US history by planting themselves in the heart of enemy territory under false cover as non-profit (and or course tax deductible) humanitarian groups, civil rights groups, and apolitical religious institutions. Until 9-11, the deceit had continued with staggering success as radical Islamic groups and leaders were routinely invited to the White House, provided with federal funding, praised by politicians, and lionized by the media.
But before this charade was exposed, nearly 3000 Americans were forced to pay with their lives as the price for the belated realization that we had been had. Suddenly, charities that had been secretly operating as conduits for terrorists and established American Muslim leaders leading double lives as terrorist masterminds were finally being recognized for who they were: Terrorists. And instead of being toasted at the State Department, they were now more appropriately being prosecuted, shut down and deported.
And yet, more than 3 years after 9-11, it would seem that this same homicidal self-delusion is alive and well in the United States. This is where Mr. Ramadan comes to play such a pivotal role in highlighting the danger of this continued self-deception.
First, Mr. Ramadan is not any more a moderate than David Duke would be considered a moderate on race relations. The only difference is that David Duke is not smart enough to speak in two languages, cloak his racism under the mantle of pluralism or enjoy the witting collaboration of the media.
In several interviews given to various European publications over the last few years, Mr. Ramadan has repeatedly provided a justification for terrorist acts against US allies such as Israel and Russia and, more recently, against the US itself. Asked by the Italian magazine Panorama if the killing of civilians is right, Mr. Ramadan unambiguously responded that "In Palestine, Iraq, Chechnya, there is a situation of oppression, repression and dictatorship. It is legitimate for Muslims to resist fascism that kills the innocent." When asked if car bombing against US forces in Iraq were legitimate, Professor Ramadan responded that "Iraq was colonized by the Americans. The resistance against the army is just."
Mastering the art of taqiyya (double speaking to fool the unbelievers), Tariq Ramadan has enchanted many with his apparent moderation. But a careful examination of his words reveals that Professor Ramadan is not what he seems and claims to be. Yes, he says that he "agrees with integration" of Muslims in the West, but he is careful to say that "we [Muslims] are the ones who are going to decide the content." He makes us happy by saying that he accepts Western secular law, but, here's the catch, "only if this law doesn't force me to do things against my religion." And when he is cornered with questions on the brutality of some punishments of Islamic law, such as stoning, he tells us that he is against them, but (there is always a "but".) they are in Quranic texts and so he cannot fully condemn them and we have to settle for "an absolute moratorium on all physical punishments."
The telegenic, soft-spoken and charming professor is just the modern, westernized face of the same enemy that wears a different mask on other battlefields. As the distinguished expert of Middle East affairs Fouad Ajami recently wrote, Tariq Ramadan is, "in the world of the new Islamism, pure nobility." His moderate faade hides his radical heart and just a careful read of his words would reveal it. France, the country that knows him best, has made up its mind on him. A court in Lyon recently said that preachers like Tariq Ramadan "can exert an influence on young Islamists and therefore constitute an incitement that can lead them to join violent groups."
In France at least, some leftist intellectuals have recognized Mr. Ramadan for what he is. The self-censorious NY Times was even forced to report that Bernard-Henri Levy, who wrote the best-seller "Who Killed Daniel Pearl" accused Ramadan of being the "intellectual champion of all kinds of double-talk" with a "racist vision of the world" and having promoted anti-Semitism. The Times further reported that Bernard Kouchner, the foreign aid advocate and former health minister of France, called Mr. Ramadan "absolutely a kook with no historical memory" and "a dangerous man." He added, "The way he denounced some Jewish intellectuals is close to anti-Semitism."
Still, the Ramadan fan club in the US continued to portray the exclusion of Mr. Ramadan as part of an anti-Muslim campaign; the charge of anti-Muslim racism, part of the larger orchestration by radical Muslims to portray themselves as the victims of hate, has been mastered perfectly, requiring only the collaboration of the American media. At the height of the controversy last year, The New York Times opined that "American Muslim groups questioned the government's ability or willingness to distinguish between what they see as Muslim moderates like Mr. Ramadan and extremists." But who were these American Muslim groups, portrayed by the Times as intellectually honest arbiters of who really is a moderate? None other than off-shoots and branches of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic radical movement that gave birth to al Qaeda and Hamas, and whose founder was none other than Hassan Al-Banna, the grandfather of Mr. Ramadan.
And there are those who fall back on the free market response: Is the most powerful nation in the world afraid of allowing Mr. Ramadan access to the intellectual pluralism of the US, where free speech is honored as the most sacred privilege that we have?
Well, Mr. Ramadan does not need to be in the United States to convey his message and thoughts. Through the internet, media and instant telecommunications, the American public is not being denied one iota of Mr. Ramadan's propaganda.
After the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, the same defenders of Mr. Ramadan-the New York Times and other elite media-were the first to ask probing and indignant questions about how the blind Sheik, with his radical views, was able to get visas to the United States in the early 1990's. But that was before he was indicted or convicted of any US crime. So apparently, the high priests at the time decided that the premium of free speech for non-US guests was not sacred; that in fact, the right to visit the US was not a constitutional right afforded to any citizen of the world, a view unfortunately increasingly espoused by editorial boards.
Title 8 United States Code Section 1182 requires the exclusion from the US of any alien who has "used his position of prominence within any country to endorse or espouse terrorist activity, or to persuade others to support terrorist activity or a terrorist organization." The provision seems written to fit Ramadan's case. The entry into the United States of any foreign national is, by law, a privilege and not a right. It is preposterous to ask the US government to disregard its own laws and to grant this privilege to a person who openly condones attacks against U.S. forces and interests.
Aside from the legal justification for barring Mr. Ramadan, the moral reason for keeping Mr. Ramadan out is the same reason why the US has for years denied visas to neo-Nazi proponents from Western Europe. It is not only the access to the United States that both neo-Nazis and Mr. Ramadan have sought. Rather it is the official imprimatur of the US government, an effective declaration of political legitimacy attending to the granting of the visa. And that is precisely same legitimacy that allowed militant Islamic groups to operate for so long in the United States. Do we really want to repeat history? « Close It
THE SENATOR ROBB, JUDGE SILBERMANN WHITEWASH
By Larry Johnson
by
Larry C. Johnson
"Dead wrong" is the phrase the media is trumpeting from the report issued by former Senator Chuck Robb and Judge Laurence Silbermann under the title , Final Report on Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. Hopefully most Americans will take time to read the report and understand what a woeful, inept job that Robb and Silbermann have done. I agree with the Commission report that analysts made mistakes. But for all of the massive detail provided in the 600 plus page report, Robb and Silbermann fail to answer the most basic question: Was there any intelligence analysis from the CIA that indicated Iraq's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction had reached the point that if we did not act Saddam would? The answer is no. Yet, Robb and Silbermann want Americans to accept the nonsense that politics played no role in the intelligence analysis. They ask America to accept the sorry picture of a President and legislators who apparently were willing idiots being spoon fed wrong information by incompetent analysts. If we accept this fairy tale we will have learned nothing from the fiasco in Iraq.
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But do not take my word for it. Consider what is presented in the Chapter on the Iraq failure. According to the report the analysts said,
The pre-war estimate of Iraqs nuclear program, as reflected in the October 2002 NIE Iraqs Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, was that, in the view of most agencies, Baghdad was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program and if left unchecked, [would] probablyhave a nuclear weapon during this decade, although it would be unlikely before 2007 to 2009. The NIE explained that, in the view of most agencies, compelling evidence of reconstitution was provided by Iraqs aggressive pursuit of high-strength aluminum tubes. The NIE also pointed to additional indicators, such as other dual-use procurement activity, supporting reconstitution. The assessment that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program and could therefore have a weapon by the end of the decade was made with moderate confidence.
Yes the analysts were wrong. They believed that Iraq was reconstituting the nuke program. But there were important caveats. First, Iraq would only have a nuke if left "unmolested" to develop such a capability. That is not codeword for invasion. Second, even if left unmolested Iraq would not have acquired a nuke until at least 2007. And how strong was this judgment? The analysts made it with "moderate confidence". It was the policymakers, not the analysts, who made the decision to go to war and who misrepresented to the public what the estimate actually said.
I am not saying the CIA is free of blame. There were major mistakes of leadership. For example, the man who led the drafting of the October 2002 estimate surrounded himself with true believers who shared the view of Bush Administration policymakers at the NSC and Department of Defense that military action in Iraq was required. This National Intelligence Officer created obstacles to dissident voices within the CIA and other parts of the intelligence community from being heard. But to pretend that the flaws in the intelligence explains why President Bush took us to war requires that we ignore a host of other uncomfortable facts.
CIA analysts got it right on the lack of operational relationship between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. Yet, notwithstanding the correct judgment of the analysts, President Bush and Vice President Cheney have continued to insist that there was such a relationship. In their words, the war in Iraq was an extension of the war on terrorism.
Analysts also got it right on the alleged link between Iraq and Niger on the question of uranium. The analysts who briefed Congress in October 2002 said there was no truth to the allegation. Yet, the White House wanted to run with it. We know from a previous Congressional report that the Assistant Deputy Director for Intelligence asked George Tenet in early October 2002 to intervene with the White House, who insisted on putting the Iraq/Niger allegation in the President's speech in Cincinnati. Only after Tenet called Stephen Hadley was the info removed. The CIA analysts consistently warned the Administration that the info the Brits had also was unreliable and the reports of Iraq trying to get their hands on a nuke were wrong.
But the policymakers did not want to hear it. In fact, Don Rumsfeld and his minions were briefing TV and newspaper pundits just two weeks before the President's 2003 State of the Union address that Iraq was trying to acquire uranium in Niger.
But policymakers do not deserve all of the blame. There was a failure of leadership at CIA. Analysts were undermined by their immediate boss, George Tenet. Although Tenet had intervened to keep the erroneous material out of the Cincinnati speech he decided to take a pass when it came to the State of the Union speech. He didn't make a stink and he left it in. Worse still, he failed in his duty to tell the President truths he did not want to hear. Sharing in this debacle was the Deputy Director of Intelligence, Jamie Miscik. When an analyst reports intelligence about a newly acquire biological weapons capability in Iraq it is incumbent on those running the Agency to ask one simple question, "What is the source of this info?". During my time as an analyst I had to justify conclusions by providing an assessment of sources. My bosses, especially a DCI, could call the Directorate of Operations and get a clear read on a questionable source. In the case of Iraq, however, top CIA managers decided to go along with policymakers in trumping up the case for war rather than insisting on the integrity of the intelligence.
Here is the bottomline. There is no such thing as perfect intelligence or perfect analysis. However, we do not serve the security of this country by perpetuating the myth that we went to war in Iraq because a couple of analysts believed Saddam's acquisition of aluminum tubes was part of a secret program to build a nuke. Going to war was and remains a political decision. « Close It
Employment Visa Threat ? Part II
By Bill West
The March 29 CT Blog posting relating to the issue of employment based visas, particularly the H and L visas and the recent exceeding of the Congressional cap in the issuance of H visas by US Citizenship and Immigration Services, noted how these visas can be abused by hostile foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations. On the heels of this post comes an excellent article published March 31 in FrontPage Magazine by Patrick Devenny, a Henry M. Jackson National Security Fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC. The article, titled, Chinas Secret War, describes in notable detail the ongoing PRC espionage efforts within and against the United States.
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The espionage efforts Mr. Devenny describes include the utilization of an estimated three thousand front companies operating within the United States with links to Chinese Intelligence. These companies are often involved in the illicit transfer of technology, which is ultimately destined to Chinas military.
Mr. Devenny notes the three thousand front company estimate comes from the senior command of the FBIs Counterintelligence Division; therefore, presumably the information is reliable. One can only wonder how many H and L visa petitions have been filed by and approved for those three thousand companies over the years. Hopefully someone is bothering to look. « Close It
Video of Al-Qaida Roadside Bombing Attack Near Fallujah
By Evan Kohlmann
Al-Qaida's Jihad Committee in Mesopotamia--led by wanted Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has released video footage of a roadside bomb attack targeting a U.S. Humvee in Al-Saqlawiya (near Fallujah), west of Baghdad. The group also took credit for numerous other recent insurgent operations across Sunni central Iraq, including at least two car bombings in Samarra and Mosul aimed at other passing American military patrols.
Click to view video excerpts c/o Globalterroralert.com
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