GOODBYE PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM? (UPDATED 4/16)

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

(UPDATE, 4/16: Knight-Ridder Newspapers quotes this post in wire story.) Just when you thought the Department of State could not top last year's debacle in failing accurately to count the number of international terrorist incidents, it appears that the State Department is going one step better--they reportedly have decided to not issue a report to the public. This move has been prompted by the Department's discovery that the new methodology used by the recently formed National Counter Terrorism Center has produced statistics that shows an enormous jump in the number of international terrorist attacks. For example, in 2003 there were about 172 significant attacks. The numbers for 2004 have jumped to at least 655. At least 300 of those incidents occurred in India in the Kashmir region. NCTC, I'm told, is still tweaking the numbers. For Secretary of State Rice these numbers are a disaster. It is tough to argue we are winning the war on terrorism when the numbers in the official Government report will show the largest number of incidents ever recorded since the State Department started reporting on terrorist incidents. In the Secretary's defense, however, the sharp jump in numbers has more to do with a change in methodololgy of counting rather that an actual surge in Islamic extremist activity. In fact, if you take time to parse the numbers, the actual scope of terrorism by Islamic extremists in 2004 appeared to decline relative to the attacks during 2003 (except for Iraq). Rather than run from the numbers the State Department and the Intelligence Community should seize the opportunity to really get their hands around the issue and provide Congress and the American people with a clear, apolitical assessment about the reality of the terrorist threat we face. (Note: the reporting requirement in 22 USCS is reprinted below.)

22 USCS � 2656f (2005)

� 2656f. Annual country reports on terrorism

(a) Requirement of annual country reports on terrorism. The Secretary of State shall transmit to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, by April 30 of each year, a full and complete report providing--
(1) (A) detailed assessments with respect to each foreign country--
(i) in which acts of international terrorism occurred which were, in the opinion of the Secretary, of major significance;
(ii) about which the Congress was notified during the preceding five years pursuant to section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 [50 USCS Appx � 2405(j)]; and
(iii) which the Secretary determines should be the subject of such report; and
(B) detailed assessments with respect to each foreign country whose territory is being used as a sanctuary for terrorists or terrorist organizations;
(2) all relevant information about the activities during the preceding year of any terrorist group, and any umbrella group under which such terrorist group falls, known to be responsible for the kidnapping or death of an American citizen during the preceding five years, any terrorist group known to have obtained or developed, or to have attempted to obtain or develop, weapons of mass destruction, any terrorist group known to be financed by countries about which Congress was notified during the preceding year pursuant to section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 [50 USCS Appx � 2405(j)], any group designated by the Secretary as a foreign terrorist organization under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1189), and any other known international terrorist group which the Secretary determines should be the subject of such report;
(3) with respect to each foreign country from which the United States Government has sought cooperation during the previous five years in the investigation or prosecution of an act of international terrorism against United States citizens or interests, information on--
(A) the extent to which the government of the foreign country is cooperating with the United States Government in apprehending, convicting, and punishing the individual or individuals responsible for the act; and
(B) the extent to which the government of the foreign country is cooperating in preventing further acts of terrorism against United States citizens in the foreign country; and
(4) with respect to each foreign country from which the United States Government has sought cooperation during the previous five years in the prevention of an act of international terrorism against such citizens or interests, the information described in paragraph (3)(B).

(b) Provisions to be included in report. The report required under subsection (a) should to the extent feasible include (but not be limited to)--
(1) with respect to subsection (a)(1)(A)--
(A) a review of major counterterrorism efforts undertaken by countries which are the subject of such report, including, as appropriate, steps taken in international fora;
(B) the response of the judicial system of each country which is the subject of such report with respect to matters relating to terrorism affecting American citizens or facilities, or which have, in the opinion of the Secretary, a significant impact on United States counterterrorism efforts, including responses to extradition requests; and
(C) significant support, if any, for international terrorism by each country which is the subject of such report, including (but not limited to)--
(i) political and financial support;
(ii) diplomatic support through diplomatic recognition and use of the diplomatic pouch;
(iii) providing sanctuary to terrorists or terrorist groups;
(iv) providing weapons of mass destruction, or assistance in obtaining or developing such weapons, to terrorists or terrorist groups;
(v) the positions (including voting records) on matters relating to terrorism in the General Assembly of the United Nations and other international bodies and fora of each country which is the subject of such report;
(2) with respect to subsection (a)(1)(B)--
(A) the extent of knowledge by the government of the country with respect to terrorist activities in the territory of the country; and
(B) the actions by the country--
(i) to eliminate each terrorist sanctuary in the territory of the country;
(ii) to cooperate with United States antiterrorism efforts; and
(iii) to prevent the proliferation of and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction in and through the territory of the country;
(3) with respect to subsection (a)(2), any--
(A) significant financial support provided by foreign governments to those groups directly, or provided in support of their activities;
(B) provisions of significant military or paramilitary training or transfer of weapons by foreign governments to those groups;
(C) efforts by those groups to obtain or develop weapons of mass destruction;
(D) provision of diplomatic recognition or privileges by foreign governments to those groups;
(E) provision by foreign governments of sanctuary from prosecution to these groups or their members responsible for the commission, attempt, or planning of an act of international terrorism; and
(F) efforts by the United States to eliminate international financial support provided to those groups directly or provided in support of their activities;
(4) a strategy for addressing, and where possible eliminating, terrorist sanctuaries that shall include--
(A) a description of terrorist sanctuaries, together with an assessment of the priorities of addressing and eliminating such sanctuaries;
(B) an outline of strategies for disrupting or eliminating the security provided to terrorists by such sanctuaries;
(C) a description of efforts by the United States to work with other countries in bilateral and multilateral fora to address or eliminate terrorist sanctuaries and disrupt or eliminate the security provided to terrorists by such sanctuaries; and
(D) a description of long-term goals and actions designed to reduce the conditions that allow the formation of terrorist sanctuaries; and
(5) an update of the information contained in the report required to be transmitted to Congress under 7120(b) of the 9/11 Commission Implementation Act of 2004 [unclassified].[;]
[(6)](3) to the extent practicable, complete statistical information on the number of individuals, including United States citizens and dual nationals, killed, injured, or kidnapped by each terrorist group during the preceding calendar year; and
[(7)](4) an analysis, as appropriate, of trends in international terrorism, including changes in technology used, methods and targets of attack, demographic information on terrorists, and other appropriate information.

(c) Classification of report.
(1) Except as provided in paragraph (2), the report required under subsection (a) shall, to the extent practicable, be submitted in an unclassified form and may be accompanied by a classified appendix.
(2) If the Secretary of State determines that the transmittal of the information with respect to a foreign country under paragraph (3) or (4) of subsection (a) in classified form would make more likely the cooperation of the government of the foreign country as specified in such paragraph, the Secretary may transmit the information under such paragraph in classified form.

(d) Definitions. As used in this section--
(1) the term "international terrorism" means terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than 1 country;
(2) the term "terrorism" means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents;
(3) the term "terrorist group" means any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which practice, international terrorism;
(4) the terms "territory" and "territory of the country" mean the land, waters, and airspace of the country; and
(5) the terms "terrorist sanctuary" and "sanctuary" mean an area in the territory of the country--
(A) that is used by a terrorist or terrorist organization--
(i) to carry out terrorist activities, including training, fundraising, financing, and recruitment; or
(ii) as a transit point; and
(B) the government of which expressly consents to, or with knowledge, allows, tolerates, or disregards such use of its territory and is not subject to a determination under--
(i) section 6(j)(1)(A) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 (50 U.S.C. App. 2405(j)(1)(A));
(ii) section 620A(a) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2371(a)); or
(iii) section 40(d) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2780(d)).

(e) Reporting period.
(1) The report required under subsection (a) shall cover the events of the calendar year preceding the year in which the report is submitted.
(2) The report required by subsection (a) to be submitted by March 31, 1988, may be submitted no later than August 31, 1988.

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