Larry Johnson: "The Demise of Counterterrorism" (UPDATED for wire story)

By Andrew Cochran

Larry Johnson, currently on travel, asked me to post this update on the terrorism report controversy, with information about terrorism in Kashmir and a recommendation for the top State Department counterterrorism job:

The recent furor generated by the State Department's decision to cease publishing a glossy report on international terrorism and let the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) handle the statistics and questions by themselves is symptomatic of a much deeper problem--lack of leadership on the counterterrorism issue. (UPDATE: Rep. Henry Waxman asked the State Department Inspector General to investigate the decision on the report.) Since the departure of Cofer Black in December 2004 the Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism has been vacant. While career foreign service officers have been tabbed to fill the role in an "acting" capability, the fact remains that there is no one with the clout or mandate to do the job of coordinating the foreign policy communities response to international terrorism.

This is not, as some might argue, a battle over turf. Although the National Counter Terrorism Center has received a legislative mandate to coordinate terrorist issues, managing policy within the bowels of State Department requires someone who is in the building and has the ear of the Secretary of State.

A State Department official commenting on the decision to not publish the statistics on international terrorism said they would let NCTC worry about the statistics and State would do the "policy". Really? How can you formulate a coherent policy if you don't know what the numbers are? Who is doing the killing? In which countries are there attacks where terrorists are killing and wounding scores of people? One of the uncomfortable answers buried in the data concerns the attacks in Kashmir. The groups responsible for these attacks--e.g., the Lashkar Tayibba, the Harakat ul-Ansar--have received funding and support from elements of Pakistan's intelligence service. In the past these groups were training in Afghanistan alongside Al Qaida. In other words one of our key allies in the war on terrorism has been a sponsor of terrorism.

This is but one example of the unpleasant, difficult policy issues that lurk behind the so-called meaningless statistics. Until you have someone at the State Department in a leadership position who understands that the numbers matter you will not have an effective policy to combat terrorism. For now the policy is adrift.

What should Condi do? For starters she might want to consider naming her buddy Phil Zelikow as the new Coordinator for Counter Terrorism. He is the right man for the job--he has access to Condi and knows the issues. However, I fear Zelikow would view this as a step down from his current perch. That, my friends, speaks volumes about the gulf between the lip service being provided to fighting the war on terrorism and the actual commitment to put some bodies on the line that can make a difference.

So, as State Department continues to tap dance about justifying not putting out a public report that provides specific data on the level of international terrorism around the world, perhaps Secretary Rice could better spend her time by naming a new Coordinator that has the clout to get something done, including putting out reports with good analysis and accurate numbers.

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