BOLTON AND THE ART OF COOKING INTELLIGENCE

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

The nomination of John Bolton as Ambassador to the UN is another body blow to the intelligence community and sends a clear message to analysts that speaking up about political pressure will only damage your career. Despite the whitewash reports provided by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Silbermann Robb Commission, which insisted there was no "politicization" of the intelligence on Iraq, we now have a documented record of blatant efforts by Bolton and Otto Reich, two senior political appointees, who tried to shape intelligence conclusions and punish intelligence professionals who worked on Cuba. (Let there be no doubt, there was pressure applied on Iraq). The pressure applied to the INR analyst and the NIO for Latin America is one way that intelligence gets politicized. What is truly amazing is the failure of Republican leaders to be outraged by this conduct. The defense of John Bolton by most Republican Senators is sending a chilling message to the analytical community.

Who would dare come forward now and admit the political appointees tried to cook the process? Analysts have seen how some Republican Senators attack the analysts who were pressured. They have seen how the integrity of the analysts have been called into question. They have seen the character assasination. And yet some of these Senators, like Norm Coleman and George Allen, have the audacity to insist that nothing untoward happened to harm analysts.

Unfortunately there are not more men of integrity like Senator Voinovich. He has put party aside and focused on principle. Men like Voinovich are why I became a Republican in the first place. Unfortunately the Senator from Ohio does not appear to be surrounded by many Republicans who are willing to condemn and punish the politicized bullying carried out by Bolton.

No one really appreciates what Bolton tried to do to the NIO for Latin America (NIO/LA). I have been privileged to know the NIO/LA for almost 19 years. He was my predecessor as the Honduran analyst and helped me learn the ropes and set the standard for doing good analysis. He is one of the best and brightest within the analytical community. Yet he has been vilified by some. I never cease to be amazed that a man like the NIO/LA, who started off in Washington working for a Republican Congressman can be vilified by Republicans as some sort of liberal, Democratic activist.

It is important to clarify some misinformation that has been bandied about in the media. For starters NIOs are not "mid-level munchkins." In fact they are the senior analysts in the community. They are (or were) the Director of Central Intelligence's personal representatives.

When NIOs brief on issues or clear on speeches they are not representing their own views, instead they represent analytical communities. Their job is to present community views and community dissents and areas of different emphasis, including (when appropriately caveated) their own.

The attack on the NIO/LA by Bolton and Reich was an attack on the whole analytical community. They assaulted the "coordinated" analysis of the intel community.

In my experience the NIO/LA was known for strict adherence to analytical "tradecraft" -- i.e., the transparent, depoliticized analytical method of doing analysis. This process involves identifying variables and the factors that drive events, describing possible trends, and offering an assessment of multiple scenarios. Unfortunately, political operatives like Bolton and Reich only wanted one driver, one trend, and one scenario.

Thanks to the work of the Foreign Relations Committee we now know that Bolton lied to the Committee during his initial testimony. He and his minions made multiple, prolonged efforts to have the NIO/LA removed from his position. Fortunately the senior managers at CIA, including Director Tenet, resisted this effort.

The issue before the Senate is not whether to send a tough guy to the UN. Instead, the issue is whether the Senators are willing to hold political appointees accountable for efforts to manipulate intelligence and punish intelligence professionals for simply doing their job. A vote for Bolton is simply another way of saying, "it doesn't matter if you try to cook the books; those who do get a reward".

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