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Iran Khumanists seal off the fortressBy Walid Phares
Phares on al Hurra: Iran's Khumainists seal off the fortress Washington DC, al Hurra TV, Mideast Newswire, 1:15 PM. June 25, 2005
In an interview with al Hurra TV, Mideast Studies Professor Walid Phares said the overall assessment of the Iranian Presidential elections is simple: in the eyes of analysts with inside knowledge of the Islamic Republic, this is a tightening of the Khumainist grip over the state fortress of Shiia Fundamentalism." Phares, a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, said "these were not elections about the regime, so that we can examine the popularity of the pro and anti Khumainism, but elections within the regime between two schools of thought."
Phares said: "After the end of the Cold war, the ruling establishment, first under Khumaini, then under Khamenei, allowed some space for a so-called internal reformist movement to emerge, but within the confines of the regime. Hence Mohammed Khatemi was elected by a majority of reformists, both inside and outside the regime, the vote being popular. It is an irony, that Rafsanjani then was regarded as a "conservative" pushing against reforms." Phares, who wrote a book on the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1987, added that "Khatemi's election showed what's under the regime, that is millions of pro-Western, and more importantly antifundamentalist and secular youth and women. These real reformists were not included in the system, nor will they be. No elections will express their will, so let's not base our analysis of elections on showing or not showing the liberal forces of Iran. Elections in Iran are a measurement for who in the regime is carving up more power."
Phares said: "In these elections, it was expected that the more radicals will win: in this case Mohammed Ahmadinijad. The former Governor of Tehran, carefully selected by the Khamenei elite, has the typical profile for these times: former revolutionary student, commander in the armed forces, officer in the revolutionary guard, Islamist scholar on campus, and staunch proponent of nuclear weapons. Ahmadinijad didn't come on the shoulders of the majority of Iran, but rather on the backs of the majority of the regime networks.
His opponent Ali Rafsanjani, ex Khamenei favorite in past times, exposed the "interference from above." For a simple reason said Phares. because he knows them well as he served in that nomenclature before. Ahmadinijad is the best horse the Khamenei elite can launch onto power to oppose and crush the real reformists, who are increasingly representing the deep aspirations of the Iranian popular majority. So, ironically, the victory of a radical, within a radical regime, if it means anything sociologically, it means that the regime is cornered, knows what the youth and women wants, and has to send its best commander to the top position in the country.
The Khomeinist regime today sees the tremendous changes in the region, including in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon. They see in the Shiia of Iraq a competitive nightmare, for they have chosen democracy, and "worse," an alliance with the United States. For sharp connoisseurs, this is why they had to "win" Iran's elections now, with the best horse they have, even if they had to twist all electoral procedures, as one of theirs rightly accuses."
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