By Walid Phares
CHOICES OVER IRAQ: QUESTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
Walid Phares
President Bush is set to address the nation at 8 PM tonight from the historic headquarters of the 82d Airborne Division in North Carolina. His remarks are supposed to cover the current stage of the War on terror and more specifically the ongoing US involvement in Iraq. From a series of interviews on MSNBC and radio shows today here is a summary of my notes:
1. Communications: While the American and Western public would be able to listen to and absorb the US President’s message directly, Arab and Muslim masses will be at the mercy of the “medium” carrying and translating Bush’s address. It is not difficult to guess how networks such as al Jazeera, al Manar and others will cut and paste, then will “analyze for” the people. Hence if the speech is destined to win the hearts and minds on both sides of the Atlantic we can project how at least on one side of the Ocean people will be “updated” about the speech. True that al Hurra and other non-Jihadi media would carry the translation, and true that many Arabs speak English, but nevertheless, we need to factor in the media gap while assessing how Iraqis, Arabs and Middle Eastern would be asked about their reactions
2. Basic attitudes in the US and the West: You have two schools and a vast mass in between. Those who opposed the principle of War against Terrorism, those who opposed the choice of Iraq and those who disagreed on the prosecution of that War, will continue to criticize the ongoing policies in Iraq, no matter what the situation has evolved into. Do not expect those who didn’t agree on the strategy of taking the war to the Jihadists along with those who believe that the Jihadists will fight the US even more just because American forces have landed in Iraq, to agree with the President and his advisors.
On the other hand, you have those who believe that the current plans and prosecution are the best possible, and that the war is about to be won. Do not expect them to change their views too. In the middle, a large mass of Americans asking an increasing number of questions: In the current equation, these are the people seeking better answers.
3. Initial choice in perspective
“What are we doing in Iraq?” This is not a question we should only ask when we list the statistics of deaths and expenses. If there is no news from Iraq, ie, bad news, we almost forget we have an army there. But as soon as the first car bomb explodes and we are reminded of the body count, we rush to remember that we have a war going on, and we suddenly re-theorize the premise. The initial strategic choice is just that: a global perspective on the War on Terror. If we have initially rejected the idea to wage unilateral moves, and in this case, in Iraq, our discussion should not be about the tactics and the results. We have to be logical with our choices. If we haven’t agreed to remove Saddam as part of the War on Terror, it is fine. The next logical step is to keep reminding us of the “other choice.” If there was another or a better strategic choice in the global war, let’s not be shy about it. Simply state it: That would be a valid critique of the Administration’s policies. But no alternative-plan is not a plan, and would keep the current one at the top.
If asked, many experts on Jihadism would have proposed different plans or altered plans before the decision to go to war in Iraq. The question today is similar: Now that the war has been launched, what plan would you propose to win that war other than the current process?
4. The War in Iraq: Victory strategy?
But if you were among the supporters of the War in Iraq as launched, as prosecuted and consider it as a generator of positive changes in the region, then your evaluation of the President’s remarks would evolve around the enhancement of the current plans. For there is a major difference between rejecting the strategic choice of a War in Iraq and suggesting policies to win that war. The current debate is confusing the public. For Americans expect from their leaders and experts to provide them with a rational choice: First question: Was the War wrong or it wasn’t. Second question: If the war’s global objective has been approved, either the management of the conflict was wrong or it wasn’t. Third question: Are the current plans perfect or are there better plans for the next stage?
What most Americans and all Iraqis really want from their elites is clarity in explaining: They don’t need the choice to be made for them, they need to select from multiple choices.
Walid Phares