SORTING OUT THE IRAQ INSURGENCY

By Larry Johnson

by
Larry C. Johnson

President Bush and Vice President Cheney need to get a grip on reality. The happy talk about the "fading" insurgency in Iraq ignores some harsh realities that bode ill for the future of U.S. interests in the Middle East. The truth is simple--we are fighting an insurgency in the midst of a civil war. The civil war in Iraq is largely sectarian and pits Sunni against Shia. The advantage in this case lies with the Shia, who not only comprise the majority of the population in Iraq but are being directly assisted by their Shia brethren in Iran. The Iraqi Shia, while not a monolithic community, are cooperating with Iranian intelligence officers. The Iranian agents are providing money, intelligence, training, and hit teams. Iran's specialty during the past 25 years was organizing assassination teams that targeted opposition leaders. They are now bringing this skill to the streets of Baghdad. In recent weeks there has been a surge in violence against Sunnis who have not been cooperating with the current Iraqi Government. Clerics are being murdered.

In many cases the Iraqi security forces are comprised of Shia personnel who in turn are being used to conduct counter insurgency operations in Sunni neighborhoods. This would be akin to sending Irish Protestant soldiers into an Irish Catholic neighborhood in Dublin. It fuels sectarian strife.

Until about a month ago the Shias appeared content to bide their time and wait until the US forces had departed the country to fully assert their power. That calculation appears to have changed. Muqtadah al Sadr, the firebrand Shia cleric, has reemerged in public as a political force and his militia is once again operating.

The Sunnis, meanwhile, are not sitting quietly and absorbing these blows. The celebrity terrorist Zarqawi believes it more important to kill Shias than "crusaders". But Zarqawi is not the heart of the Sunnit insurgency. There are former Bathists as well as genuine Iraqi nationalists who loathe outside interference. Accordingly these Sunnis are fighting aggressively against Iraqis allied with the United States and US forces.

The situation is gradually slipping from our control because the US is politically and militarily unable to commit more troops to fight the counter insurgency. Without more forces the United States cannot ensure the following:

Regular public trials of insurgents responsible for terrorist violence against Iraqi civilians.

Free and safe movement throughout Baghdad to enjoy restaurants without fear of being kidnapped or murdered.

Safe movement from downtown to the international airport with minimal risk of an ambush.

Safe landings by international air carriers at the international airport without facing attacks from surface to air missiles.

Security for the Iraqi people who choose to align themselves with the US-backed coalition.

Control of the borders to minimize the infiltration of insurgents and supplies to insurgent forces.

Control of the lines of communication and critical infrastructure.

These are goals the United States can accomplish. But meeting these objectives requires more manpower, in other words, boots on the ground, in order to achieve them. Sadly no one is willing to put more forces into the mix. As a result the insurgency will remain vibrant and the civil war will expand. The odds favor a Shia victory and the eventual emergence of the second Shia state in the Middle East. That issue, however, is grist for another post.

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