Insurgency Gains Momentum in Thailand

By Zachary Abuza

While the world�s attention is focused on last week�s suicide bombing attacks in London, a radical Islamic insurgency is raging half a world in Southern Thailand. Yesterday, witnessed, a spate of coordinated six bombings, arsons and attacks on security forces. Two people were killed, including a policeman, and 19 were wounded (three policemen). Several other bombs were defused. Alarmingly, several of the bombs destroyed an electric transmission station, leaving parts of Thailand�s restive south in darkness. One additional bomb went off today, wounding 4.

The insurgency has raged now for 19 months. Ten of the 33 districts in the �deep south� are �plagued by violence� according to the Ministry of Interior. There have been over 140 successful bombings, and almost as many attempted bombings, with over 600 casualties. Militants have assassinated more than 240 people. In all over 325 people have been killed in acts by the Islamic militants including, 19 soldiers, 50 police, 158 civilians, 27 teachers, 3 monks, 33 headman/local officials, 14 government officials, and 12 civil servants. More than 1,300 people have been wounded. Alarmingly, militants have beheaded nine people, eight in 2005 alone.

Today, two more teachers were gunned down, bringing the total of assassinated teachers to 27. Teachers are perceived as agents of assimilation, and in remote rural communities, schools are the only real manifestation of the state. Over 3,000 teachers have requested transfers-and there is now a pilot program to have army soldiers serve as replacement teachers.

People are fleeing the south en masse. Just under 10 percent of the South�s 360,000 Buddists have fled. The militant�s pogrom is, sadly, working. At the same time, there attacks against their coreligionists have also increased. Moderate Muslims who are civil servants, local headmen or people deemed to be government collaborators and informants have been systematically gunned down. Hard-line Salafism is being imposed. As much as this is an insurgency, it is also a cultural revolution.

There is a lot of concern that the insurgency is gaining momentum. The first six months of 2005 saw some 115 bombings and attempted bombings and 179 deaths. In May, there were 26 bombings, a rate of almost one per day. In June, the number increased to 36 bombings and attempted bombings, with some 207 people killed and 601 wounded in Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani.

Synchronized attacks are also becoming routine. While the triple bombings of 3 April in Songkhla and Yala which killed two and wounded over 80, demonstrated that the insurgents retained the capacity to carry out near simultaneous bombings across two targets, as well as to target key economic infrastructure, such as the Hat Yai airport, what was less reported in the press was that nine bombs were actually set. A quadruple bombing occurred in Yala in June. Yesterday saw six simultaneous bombings.

What is most alarming is that Thai security forces still have such a poor understanding of the insurgency. Their intelligence is pretty abysmal. To date not one bomb factory was raided, and the only explosive materiel that has been seized was 880kg of ammonium nitrate found on a truck at a roadside checkpoint in June. How much has gotten through? Only 12 of the 58 known insurgent leaders have been captured. Less than half of the some 100 people with warrants have been arrested.

Yesterday the Thaksin government passed a royal decree establishing an �Emergency Powers Law.� The law, which allows the government greater powers to tap phones, and hold suspects without charges, also allows for press censorship. There is little evidence that these powers, that will devastate human rights and the rule of law, already eroded under Thaksin, will do anything to help stem the insurgency.

While there is concern that the regional Al Qaeda affiliate, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) will get involved leading to an escalation of the conflict, to date there is only the faintest of evidence that JI is involved. JI needs to foment sectarian violence to create a Manichean worldview, to create a sense of victimization, of persecution, and to relay the sense that the secular states are at best not protecting the interests of the Muslim community and at worse actively complicit against it. But JI remains focused on Malaysia and Indonesia, where they have deep networks and a long history, as well as in Mindanao liaising, and training with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf Group. JI has tried to deepen their relationship to Thai Muslims in the past, with only limited success. Though they may be sympathetic to and aspire towards JI, Thai separatist groups till now have been cognizant that the Thai government will not tolerate JI�s involvement and as such, JI�s known/discovered role ultimately will be counterproductive for them. That said, conditions and attitudes can change. Moreover, the insurgency is going better than they could have hoped; there is little need to court JI at present. Other groups, such as HUJI-B and the Rohinga Solidarity Organization have ties to the Thai militants. There is some indication that Cambodian Islamists, who traditionally have close links with their co-religionists in Thailand, are joining the insurgents. Thai authorities should also be concerned about �bleed-out� from Iraq as Jihadis move on to the next crisis spot. It is a matter of time before the broader Islamic militant community focuses on Thailand�s treatment of its Muslim minority. The systematic persecution of Muslims is the light that attracts the jihadi moths.

TrackBack