Al-Qaeda's Hurricane Lesson: Target the Oil Supply

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

There can be no doubt that our terrorist enemies have keenly watched both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  One thing they will surely seize on (as noted by Bill West, among others) is the complete inadequacy of the governmental response to Katrina -- which suggests that we are not prepared to handle the effects of a major terrorist attack.  Another clear lesson is the U.S. economy's vulnerability to high oil prices.

Christopher Dickey has an excellent article in Newsweek demonstrating that our foes are cognizant that an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil and gas facilities could significantly damage the U.S. economy.  He notes a shoot-out that occurred on September 6 in the Saudi Arabian city of Ad Dammam, which at the time was well below the media's radar because of Katrina's tragic aftermath.  The shoot-out lasted almost 48 hours, and Saudi forces were only able to end it when they brought in light artillery; afterward, the police found "enough weapons for a couple of platoons of guerrilla fighters."  But on top of that, Saudi police found documents showing that the terrorist cell "had planned major attacks on some of Saudi Arabia's key oil and gas facilities."

Dickey points out that, with the current hurricane-induced oil shortages, Saudi Arabia is "more important than ever to world oil supplies" -- and al-Qaeda knows it:

"They're watching Katrina. They're watching Rita.  They're watching what it's doing to the United States," says former CIA agent Robert Baer, who has written extensively on Saudi Arabia's vulnerabilities.  A few ruptured pipes could be repaired quickly, says Baer, but a concerted attack at several points could bring on the kind of nightmare scenario that U.S. officials have been dreading since the Reagan years, pushing oil prices up from their current prices in the range of $60 to $70 a barrel to well over $100 for weeks or even months.

Such an attack would have a tremendous effect on the U.S. economy.  This situation deserves our attention in the coming months -- and highlights one of the many reasons we should be working to reduce our dependence on oil.

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