Iraq Votes on Constitution Saturday

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

This Saturday, Iraqis will vote in a referendum on their new constitution.  USA Today reports that turnout is expected to be even higher than the January elections because of increased Sunni participation.

The expected Sunni turnout is reflective of news that provides reason for cautious optimism.  The New York Times reports that a recent compromise has spurred some Sunni groups (the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment) to endorse the latest draft of the constitution.  The compromise creates a panel in the next parliament that possesses "the power to propose broad new revisions to the constitution."  The purpose of this compromise is to "give the Sunnis -- who were largely shut out of the constitution-writing process -- a new chance to help redraft the document after elections in December."

Commentators see hope in the compromise.  Andrew Sullivan writes, "The news from Iraq today is about as good as one can hope for right now.  Some Sunni leaders have been enticed to support the Constitution on the understanding that they have a few months to finesse it after the vote.  It's a messy, fraught and unsatisfying compromise, which is to say it's politics.  Politics, recall, is what Iraq hasn't really had for thirty years.  Under Saddam, it had tyranny backed by sadism and corruption. . . .  Now we actually have negotiation, brinksmanship, and the astonishingly resolute refusal of the Shiite leadership to be drawn into civil war by Zarqawi's brutal slaying of Shiite Muslims."  And USA Today:  "The revised constitution, while still plainly flawed, introduces a theoretical path by giving Sunnis, who have long ruled the country, a reason to end their non-participation."

One of the chief Sunni concerns that remains under the latest draft of the constitution is the ability of Shiite and Kurdish regions to split into autonomous areas.  Since the Shiite and Kurdish regions contain Iraq's oil wealth, the New York Times reports that such a break-off could "leav[e] the Sunnis with little more than large swaths of impoverished desert land."

While some Sunni leaders have endorsed the constitution, others urge its rejection.  For example, an official with the Muslim Scholars Association stated, "We call on the people to boycott the referendum or say no to the constitution.  We reject the entire political system because of the presence of the invaders."

Security has been stepped up in advance of the elections.  The New York Times reports that while American and Iraqi forces are prepared to protect polling centers, Iraq's Ministry of the Interior has announced travel restrictions, "including a 10 p.m. curfew, the closing of international land borders and the Baghdad airport from Friday to Sunday, and a ban on virtually all vehicle traffic on Saturday."  These security measures will be accompanied by offensive military operations in the Sunni triangle throughout the weekend.  Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, a spokesman for the coalition forces, says they still expect the elections to be accompanied by "a spike" in violence.

The constitution's defeat at the polls seems unlikely.  The draft passes if a majority of Iraqis vote in favor of it, unless two-thirds of the voters in at least three provinces reject it.

However, beyond the vote on the constitution, continued U.S. commitment to Iraq is vital to prevent the insurgents from turning the country to chaos.  This need for a continued U.S. presence is underscored by the purported letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri that the United States recently intercepted, which outlines al-Qaeda's plans for Iraq:  "Establish an Islamic authority or amirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate -- over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq, i.e., in Sunni areas, is in order to fill the void stemming from the departure of the Americans, immediately upon their exit and before un-Islamic forces attempt to fill this void."  As I've written previously, the caliphate that Zawahiri envisions would be "similar to pre-9/11 Afghanistan:  a geographic area where the group could train terrorists and plan attacks against the West."

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