Counterterrorism Blog

Earlier, I blogged about a letter allegedly written by Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that, if genuine, demonstrates the importance of Iraq to al-Qaeda's jihad.  However, doubts in Washington are mounting about the letter's authenticity.  Eli Lake reports in the New York Sun:

[O]ver the weekend, Al Qaeda in Iraq issued a statement from Mr. Zarqawi claiming the letter was a fake.  "Everything in the letter attributed to Ayman al-Zawahiri is false," the statement said.  Some analysts inside and outside the administration now are also taking this line.

"This does not read like an Islamist text," a terrorism analyst at the conservative-leaning Hudson Institute, Chris Brown, said in an interview yesterday.  "It only uses the word 'infidel' twice and makes five references to 'crusaders.'  They are talking about the U.S. military in Iraq, which all Islamists, including Al Qaeda, always refer to as the crusader nations, but in this letter Zawahiri refers to America almost exclusively."  Mr. Brown added that the letter also uses references to both the Christian and Muslim calendar:  "We know that Al Qaeda leaders will use the Islamic calendar in private correspondence and the Christian calendar for statements meant to be public, but never both in an internal communication."

Mr. Brown also notes that the letter, which was dated two days after the London underground bombings, makes no mention of the attacks carried out by Al Qaeda's minions in Britain.  "It's quite amazing that they went to great lengths to assure that Al Qaeda would get credit for the subway bombings and they would make no mention of it in this letter, especially considering that Zarqawi is also commander of all operations in Europe," he said. . . .

Two sources inside the Bush administration told The New York Sun yesterday that some lower-level analysts share some of the concerns Mr. Brown raised, but that at the highest levels of the government there is no questioning the letter's authenticity.  "Some of us think there is a possibility that a foreign intelligence service may have faked it," one administration source said.

On the other hand, the ubiquitous Peter Bergen believes that the letter is genuine:  "One of Zawahiri's preoccupations is, 'We don't have the masses on our side.'  In his book, 'Knights Under the Prophet's Banner,' he says two causes the masses can get behind are Palestine and the United States' intervention.  These themes are in the letter."

The investigation of the letter's authenticity is worth following for two reasons.  First, the letter is significant if genuine because it suggests that Iraq is now of central import to al-Qaeda.  Second, if the letter was faked, that will deal another blow to the credibility of U.S. intelligence.  When director of national intelligence John Negroponte made the letter public, it was accompanied by a press release stating:  "The United States Government has the highest confidence in the letter's authenticity."  It won't look good if it turns out that they were duped by a forgery.