Counterterrorism Blog

As Andy Cochran observed earlier, the lack of violence accompanying Iraq's constitutional referendum is encouraging.  I have a few observations about what the referendum means for the future of the war in Iraq.

First, the insurgency's second straight failure to produce a bloodbath on election day shows that the insurgents aren't as strong as media reports would lead you to believe.  Remember that the insurgents did everything they could to try to intimidate voters from reaching the polls in January, and promised a massacre.  As Evan Kohlmann reported, the Zarqawi-led group Al-Qaeda's Committee in Iraq issued a warning on the eve of the January elections:  "Take care not to go near the centers of sin and disbelief (election centers) and this is your warning so do not blame us for anything that will happen as a result. . . .  We ask the gardens and the virgins in heaven to prepare themselves, and for the Martyrs Brigade to be happy because the wedding of the martyrs is very close."  Yet the January elections were a stunning success.  The insurgents again tried to terrorize the population by knocking out electricity across Baghdad the day before the October referendum.  But when push came to shove, they were again unable to wreak major havoc.  This isn't to say that the insurgency isn't a major problem.  Clearly, the insurgents will cause far more tragedy and suffering before the battle for Iraq is won.  The point, though, is that the insurgency can be beaten -- and it will be, if we don't lose our nerve.

Second, the increased voter turnout is encouraging.  It shows that more people are buying into Iraq's new government.  In January, insurgent groups were warning people not to vote.  This time around, some insurgent groups were telling their members to go to the polls in order to vote against the new constitution.  For example, the Sunni insurgent group Ansar al-Sunna told its followers that voting amounts to a "jihad against the Americans," and that "[r]ejecting the constitution will defeat the American plan in Iraq."  If citizens perceived the new government as illegitimate or on the verge of collapse, they wouldn't turn out to vote in such high numbers -- and the insurgents certainly wouldn't be taking part in the voting process.

Third, it isn't clear what the increased Sunni turnout means.  This is a key question because of the support that some Sunni factions have provided to the insurgency.  Ideally, it would mean that the Sunnis are increasingly buying into the new government, heartened by the fact that some Sunni groups like the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment endorsed the new constitution.  Conversely, though, the high Sunni turnout could mean that many Sunnis showed up to vote against the constitution.  This latter theory is the source of such statements as the assertion by Sheikh Abdul-Salam al-Kubaisi, a cleric with the Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars:  "If the constitution was passed, the attacks will definitely rise against the occupation forces, and the security situation is going to be worse."

Fourth, there's still a significant chance of serious conflict over the constitution.  The Sunnis have very legitimate concerns about the ability of Shiite and Kurdish regions to split into autonomous areas, leaving the Sunni regions without a share in the country's oil wealth.  Some Sunni groups supported the constitution at the last minute because of a compromise that created a panel in the next parliament with the power to propose broad new constitutional revisions.  There's no guarantee that constitutional revisions that satisfy the Sunni concerns will be forthcoming.

And finally, it's important to acknowledge the role of increased police presence in preventing massive bloodshed on election day.  Security precautions included "a 10 p.m. curfew, the closing of international land borders and the Baghdad airport from Friday to Sunday, and a ban on virtually all vehicle traffic on Saturday."  The lesson here (a lesson that we should also have learned from Mosul's experience) is that we shouldn't draw down our forces in Iraq too early.  If we withdraw or substantially reduce our troop presence before the Iraqi police are ready, that will be a major gift to our enemies.

I'll be discussing these issues at 6:30 Eastern today on Dateline:  Washington.  (To listen, click on the hyperlink and select the Dateline Washington Audio Feed.)