Counterterrorism Blog

The perpetrators of today's terrorist bombings in Bali haven't been publicly identified as of this post, but the bombing took place at Kuta, the site of the October 2002 bomb attacks carried out by the al Qaeda-linked terror group Jemaah Islamiyah. Those blasts killed 202 people. From the AP story on the new bombings: "Since the 2002 Bali blasts, Jemaah Islamiyah has been tied to at least two other bombings in Indonesia, both in the capital, Jakarta. Those blasts, one at the J.W. Marriott hotel in 2003 and the other outside the Australian Embassy in 2004, killed at least 23. Western and Indonesian intelligence agency have consistently warned the group was plotting more attacks." Abu Bakar Bashir, JI's alleged spiritual leader, or "emir", was sentenced in March to 30 months in prison for his involvement in the October 2002 Bali bombings, but he was cleared of more serious terrorism charges. The chief Indonesian security minister warned this week that JI continues to possess dangerous bomb-making talent. And a senior Filippino security official is quoted today as saying that al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf and JI are jointly planning to carry out attacks in that country before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

ZACHARY ABUZA is one of the world's leading experts on JI, has written extensively about JI, and warned that though weakened, JI remains a potent force. Zachary wrote critically acclaimed studies in 2003 and in 2004 (both Acrobat files) on JI and terrorism in Southeast Asia which are linked in the Counterterrorism Library. Zachary's statement for our September 8 panel, "Four Years Later: Are We Safer?" said the following about JI: "Training, conducted by JI members in MILF camps (including two of JI�s top bomb-makers, Dulmatin and Umar Patek), have substantially improved the lethality and sophistication of their bombs...The MILF continue to give JI members sanctuary, which has allowed them to regroup and train a new generation of members." (Emphasis mine.)

On March 29, Zachary posted the following here about JI:

"Although Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) has been the most active and lethal of Al Qaeda's regional affiliates, perpetrating three major terrorist attacks in Indonesia since 2002: Bali (October 2002), the JW Marriott in Jakarta (August 2003) and the Australian Embassy (September 2004), JI is a weakened organization. JI has been significantly degraded in terms of its capability and manpower since October 2001. There have been more than 300 arrests, including most of its senior leaders and founding members. JI's leadership structure, its shura and regional (mantiqi) structure no longer seem to be in place. What is left is a looser organization, autonomous cells, with little if any centralized command and control. There is considerable bomb-making expertise and a cadre of Afghan trained leaders still at large. JI has not thrown in the towel, and the path to its regrouping and expansion lies less in bombing western targets and more through provoking sectarian conflict. This is what JI and its leaders were consumed with in 1998-2000." (Emphasis mine.)

Look for Zachary's comments about the new bombings on this site and in the media.