Counterterrorism Blog

The United States recently obtained a 13-page letter from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri to al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.  The letter was captured in a counterterrorism operation in Iraq, and there are two special points of significance to note.

First, the letter shows the al-Qaeda leadership's increasing sensitivity to public opinion.  Zawahiri writes of the importance of popular support for al-Qaeda, and rebukes Zawahiri for the Iraq insurgency's "brutal tactics -- noting that hostages can just as effectively be killed with bullets rather than by beheading."  I've written before (most recently in the Weekly Standard) of al-Qaeda's increased efforts to tailor their message to appeasement-minded Westerners.  Apparently, Zawahiri has also given some thought to how he can bolster al-Qaeda's image in the Muslim world.

Second, the letter shows Iraq's current importance to al-Qaeda's jihad.  Officials have said that Zawahiri's letter outlines al-Qaeda's four stage plan:

The letter of instructions and requests outlines a four-stage plan, according to officials:  First, expel American forces from Iraq.  Second, establish a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible.  Third, extend the jihad to neighboring countries, with specific reference to Egypt and the Levant -- a term that describes Syria and Lebanon.  And finally, war against Israel.  US officials say they were struck by the letter's emphasis on the centrality of Iraq to Al Qaeda's long-term mission.

This letter further confirms that we shouldn't withdraw from Iraq prematurely.  If we were to do so, the country could collapse into a state of chaos that would allow al-Qaeda to gain a foothold and perhaps establish something similar to pre-9/11 Afghanistan:  a geographic area where the group could train terrorists and plan attacks against the West.

UPDATE, 10/19/2005:  The Zawahiri letter's authenticity has been increasingly questioned.  I address this in a newer post.