More Mistakes by the Washington Post on the Foreign Fighters "Debate"

By Evan Kohlmann

As much as I am fatigued by the seemingly endless "fisking" of misinformed articles on Iraq's foreign fighters, I cannot resist drawing attention to yet another recent Washington Post article which twists the research and conclusions of Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  Snuck into a long WP article on the sinking political prospects of Vice President Dick Cheney, journalists Michael Fletcher and James VandeHei also included this wandering snippet:

"Some observers called into question Cheney's repeated description of the enemy in Iraq as 'terrorists' who are seeking to control that country to establish a base from which they can 'launch attacks and to wage war against governments that do not meet their demands.'  U.S. intelligence agencies say foreign terrorists represent a minority of the insurgent forces; the vast majority are Iraqis.  Classified findings by U.S. intelligence agencies are reflected in a study by Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, released yesterday, which estimates that at least 90 percent of the fighters are Iraqi."

OK, so what's wrong with this passage?  Well, first off, Cordesman doesn't base his study on "classified findings" by "U.S. intelligence agencies."  Quite to the contrary, Cordesman bases his research almost exclusively on foreign intelligence reports produced by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia--not the United States government.  In fact, a number of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement sources I have spoken with have expressed *strong* dismay that Cordesman's research is being used to imply that there is no significant presence of foreign fighters in Iraq.  One will recall my previous post on this subject when one such highly credible source compared those who complain of the U.S. government allegedly overinflating the presence of foreign fighters in Iraq to UFO conspiracy theorists.

Besides mischaracterizing Cordesman's sources, they have also flubbed on his actual conclusions.  Contrary to the tone of the Washington Post article, Cordesman has been rightly hesitant to offer any specific numbers as to the total number of foreign fighters present in Iraq.  In another recent interview, Cordesman conceded he was not sure as to the total population of foreign fighters, but added, "If there are anything like 3,000 foreign fighters in Iraq, this poses a serious threat... In any case, the exact numbers are largely irrelevant.  All it takes is enough volunteers to continue to support suicide attacks and violent bombings, and to seek to drive Iraqi Sunnis towards a major and intense civil war... many [foreign fighters] are likely to survive and be the source of violence and extremism in other countries."  Though I often disagree with Tony on his research, I wholeheartedly concur on this point.  The numbers are largely irrelevant, and only a small number of foreign fighters are necessary to upset regional geopolitical stability.  Thus, no informed sources--not even Cordesman himself--seem to agree with the misbegotten conclusions formulated by the Washington Post's Fletcher and VandeHei.

Nor should anyone take this post as some abstract defense of Dick Cheney on my part.  Besides my general distaste for partisan politics, in the recent past, I've referred to V.P. Cheney's views on the Iraqi insurgency as self-delusional and "stunningly obtuse."  I have also characterized the decision by the Bush administration to invade Iraq in 2003 as a "colossal strategic error."  But, from an objective standpoint, it is fair to say that George Bush and Dick Cheney are not the only ones pushing a dubious agenda for Iraq through the mass media.

*UPDATE* [11/23/05, 10:45am]: My respected colleague in Europe, Jean-Charles Brisard, has weighed in on the issue of foreign fighters in response to my recent posts.  I asked JCB for permission to repost some of his comments, which I regard as highly relevant:

"You're right to challenge the WP assessment on foreign fighters. According to the latest figures I've obtained from a European intel agency, as of September 2005, 150 European fighters had been located, arrested or killed in Iraq... 90% of the terrorist attacks in Iraq were carried out or led by foreign fighters.  Adding to that the fact that the CIA, as quoted in my Zarqawi book, assesses that Iraq is the scene of a major shift from charities and various religious organizations previously identified for their support to terrorist networks in Pakistan and Afghanistan, it's an obvious mistake to downplay the foreign influence and presence in the Iraqi insurgency."

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