Counterterrorism Blog

Al-Qaida Takes Casualties in Iraq -- But Apparently Not Zarqawi

By Evan Kohlmann

Despite recent reports to the contrary, Al-Qaida's Committee in Iraq has suffered numerous casualties during recent combat operations in northern and western Iraq -- including both native and foreign fighters.  As I hinted at in my previous post on Iraq's foreign fighters, at least four commanders from the designated foreign terrorist organization Asbat al-Ansar in southern Lebanon have been killed during intense fighting near the western towns of Al-Qaim and Al-KarabilahAnother Yemeni national -- a veteran of multiple trips to Afghanistan -- was also slain before he could participate in an intended suicide bombing mission.

Other, highly dubious reports have also surfaced in the media today suggesting that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have been himself killed in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul during a U.S. military raid on a suspected Al-Qaida hideout.  Needless to say, such "tips" are often posted on fringe Arabic-language message forums on the Internet and are subsequently picked up by overeager news agencies -- but ultimately, most prove to be nothing more than unfounded rumor.  Certainly, Al-Qaida doesn't seem to have been at all fazed by the reported Mosul raid.  Not only has Al-Qaida issued nearly twenty new communiques in the last twenty four hours, but it also claimed credit for additional insurgent attacks on U.S. forces in Mosul.  Apparently, the raid that "might have killed" Zarqawi did not even succeed in decapitating Al-Qaida's military command structure in the Mosul area.  This Zarqawi report ultimately will be proven or disproven by the only sure way possible: forensic evidence collected on scene.  But, at least for the moment--given what we do know--it seems fair to classify Zarqawi's would-be passing as extremely unlikely.

See: (UPI) Reports of Zarqawi's death played down

UPDATE: I've fixed the broken link to the Asbat al-Ansar PDF file

UPDATE II [11/21/05, 9:30am EST]: An Al-Qaida supporter who claims to know the identities of those inside the destroyed house in Mosul has emphatically denied that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was present in the structure or was killed during the raid.  According to the source, a total of eight individuals were hiding in the residence at the time, including seven male insurgents and one of their wives.  This group had not yet been involved in significant insurgent operations, but rather was preparing to carry out a "terrorist martyrdom mission."  Furthermore, according to the source, the raid that led to the deaths of the would-be "suicide squad" was executed exclusively by U.S. military forces--and not Iraqi soldiers or policemen.