Counterterrorism Blog

It is now clear that the phenomenon much feared by the intelligence community and military in fighting global terrorism is now well-advanced--the cross-pollination of techniques and strategies of different groups, able to share lethal technological innovations across national boundries to comrades battling elsewhere. The Washington Post on Monday carried a lengthy story on how tactics from Iraqi jihadists are showing up in Afghanistan. It is not just the suicide bombing themselves, it is the technology of building the bombs, the use of more sophisticated, harder to detect detonators and the accumulated knowledge that now moves back and forth across much of the jihadi world.

U.S. military and intelligence officials have long believed that this spread of knowledge, communication and networking in the jihad world was one of the biggest dangers of the Iraq invasion and the resulting, fragmented insurgency. It created a crucible where jihadists could meet, train, study and fight together, greatly strengthening the network's trust and knowledge of each other and facilitating communication after one's stint in Iraq finished.

It is now clear they were right to be concerned. Even more worrisome is the almost-inevitable spread of these techniques and startegies around the globe where the jihadists are active--from the Philippines to Africa to Southeast Asia. Being in combat with someone, and having a shared set of experiences greatly strengthens the bonds of individuals and groups engaged in clandestine activities. Afghanistan, Bosnia, Sudan and other places have offered this to a lesser degree than Iraq in the past. But in Iraq there is the added advantage of fighting American soldiers, not other proxy armies.

As I have mentioned in the past, the Post article also highlights the seeming financial resurgence of the Taliban and the sharing of resources--military and financial--with al Qaeda foreign fighters there. The tempo of Taliban activities in Afghanistan has greatly increased, and Taliban units now occassionally include Arab fighters in their ranks. The equipment and technology they now have is new and very good. This could be a sign of involvement in the booming opium trade, of renewed external financial assistance or a mixture of both.

There is little I read or hear to suggest either the Salafist combatants in Iraq or Afghanistan are increasing their public appeal. But, as in every insurgent war, if the goverment forces are not in control of an area the people will go with the flow and work with whoever wields the most power. Survival is paramount, not ideology, among the civilians trying to eke out a living. Not winning is dangerously akin to losing.