Counterterrorism Blog

While there was some progress in combating terrorism in Southeast Asia in 2005, a number of low intensity conflicts continued to flare, and have the potential to escalate in 2006. Core grievances have gone unaddressed while the governments continued to focus their efforts on decapitating organizations.

In Indonesia, a bomb was detonated in Palu, the troubled province of Central Sulawesi’s capital, on 31 December. The bomb, which targeted Christians in a crowded market, killed 6 and wounded 45. It was the latest in a string of sectarian attacks in 2005, that Islamist militias affiliated with Jemaah Islamiyah staged to provoke a return to all out sectarian conflict. The attacks have become more sophisticated and bloody and they have often at times been very sophisticated in their targeting, for example, the assassinations of witnesses in criminal trials against Islamic militants, or events to terrify a community – such as the beheadings of three schoolgirls. There has also been a range of violence employed: from assassinations to six bombings that killed 28 and wounded over 100. A spate of arson attacks killed six, while well-coordinated raids on police outposts that killed five police and three civilians. Some 120 IEDs seized in raids.

Indonesian authorities have been bracing for a spate of attacks. Some 35 suicide vests and documents recovered following the death of JI’s top bomb-maker Dr. Azahari bin Hussin in October 2005, provided evidence that the group was planning on launching a number of attacks during the busy holiday season. Indonesian authorities believe that Noordin Mohammad Top is planning retaliatory attacks to avenge Azahari’s death. Indonesian authorities have also warned that JI may be taking a page out of the Iraqi playbook and may begin a campaign of kidnapping westerners.

In Thailand, the insurgency in the troubled Muslim south has continued. Since January 2004, some 2004 people have been killed. In 2005, alone, 91 police were killed and 151 wounded. Although the government is taking credit for a sharp decline in attacks in December, torrential rains and floods in the troubled region appear to be the key factor. A paucity of arrest of mid and senior-level insurgency have frustrated Thai officials who still have very little understanding of the situation and the organizations involved.

Though unreported in the press, in November 2005, Thai authorities arrested three Muslims from Yala who were in Bangkok conducting surveillance on some 40 potential targets including hotels, malls, the Ministry of Defense, and other locations. While the insurgents have yet to move significantly beyond their home provinces (though recently martial law was declared in two districts of a fourth province), there are indications that they are at the very least considering the option of hitting soft targets in Bangkok or other tourist areas.

In the Philippines, the security situation remained mixed. The Abu Sayyaf continued their path set in 2004, eschewing kidnappings in favor of bonafide terrorist attacks. While the ASG remains a small group, their radicalism and ability to tap into networks of Islamic converts has given Manila cause for concern. While hostilities between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) all but ceased and significant progress was made in the peace talks, the MILF continued to give JI and ASG members sanctuary.

Finally, in Malaysia, the United States shut their embassy on 29 December citing only an unspecific but credible threat.