Davos and Terrorism: Nothing Really New This Year

By Victor Comras

While global terrorism got some attention at this year�s Davos World Economic Summit, it was not one of the conference's central themes. Some attention was given to the economic costs associated with terrorism, and to continuing economic vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks. There was also an on-going polemic between Western and Muslim participants on the nature, causes and best ways to treat international terrorism. Iran, Iraq, and Hamas' victory in the Palestinian terrorities generated some debate. But, nothing really knew came from these discussions and few new recommendations were presented.

One Conference Session focused on the immense costs associated with combating global terrorism. The US and world economy lost billions after the 9/11 attack and we are still absorbing the on-going costs of protecting ourselves from future terrorist attacks. But, hard questions are now being asked concerning the cost effectiveness of the security systems we have put in place. Several Davo�s participants questioned whether government�s may be going overboard on security expenditures. Others contend that such expenses are justified given the potential human, social and economic costs future major terrorist attacks might entail. All agreed that closer consultation and coordination between government, industry and business would lead to a better use of security-related funding.

One of the more interesting events was a simulated exercise involving major oil supply disruptions caused by terrorism. Two scenarios were studied: simultaneous terrorist attacks on key choke points along the global energy supply and subsequent further attacks in the Persian Gulf against soft targets, which exacerbate fears concerning long term oil shortages. These attacks are posited as driving the price of oil into the $124.00 - $134.00 a barrel range. The recommended response measures included taking immediate steps to protect other key infrastructure and �choke points; calling on OPEC and non OPEC producers to maximize production, releasing of global oil reserves, and mandatory conservation measures. But, participants felt that the ultimate result of oil supply disruption would be very substantial longterm economic consequences for the international community. Their conclusion was that much greater impetus must be given to the development of alternative energy sources.

GSPC's spiritual leader killed

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, AFP just reported that Sheikh Ahmed Abu Al Baraa was killed on January 17 during a fight between Islamists and the Algerian Army. It is an important victory against the jihadists because Al Baraa was quite influential in bringing in new recruits to the Algerian terrorist group.

Also GSPC is getting a lot of traction recently and can be considered as one of the most dangerous terror groups out there. Even though, France is their number one enemy, GSPC is helping Zarqawi in Iraq with fresh blood. Indeed, from April 2003 to December 2005, 163 Algerian GSPC members were arrested at the Syrian-Iraqi border: this is the highest number of citizens right after Jordanian and Saudi nationals. These "fighters" are usually handed over to Algerian authorities.

Finally, in the past three years about fifty GSPC Islamists have been sent back to Algeria from mostly Western Europe and the US. For instance, just recently Canada handed over Samir Ait Mohamed to Algerian authorities, to the utter dismay of Washington. Indeed, Mohamed who had been jailed for four and half years in Canada was wanted in the US because of its implication in the Ressam network that plotted the Millenium attack.

Even though, Algeria has been a good ally in the war on terror, especially in terms of intelligence, a recent rapprochement to Iran is quite worrying.

Contributing Experts' Interviews on Al-Zawahri Tape & Border Threats

By Andrew Cochran

Our Contributing Experts have been all over the airwaves to discuss the new video issued by Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman Al-Zawahri, and potential border attacks by Mexican drug lords. Links to the interviews:

Al-Zawahri Tape:
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross on Fox News on January 30;
Steven Emerson on Fox News on January 30: First interview - second interview - third interview (with Bernard Kerik);
Walid Phares on MSNBC on January 30: First interview - second interview;
The Investigative Project's Lorenzo Vidino on Fox News on January 30 (with R.P. Eddy);
Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC on January 30 (also discussing the new Jill Carroll tape)

Border Threats:
Michael Cutler on CNN on January 30;
Steven Emerson on CNBC on January 30 (with others)

Mujahideen Army Calls Upon Fighters to Attack Denmark and Norway

By Evan Kohlmann

The Mujahideen Army in Iraq--a prominent Sunni insurgent group--has released a new communique threatening to attack Denmark and Norway over a series of recent cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Mohammed.  According to the statement:

��We, along with the rest of the world, have observed the offensive and harmful blasphemy against the blessed messenger Mohammed.  This wrongdoing was perpetrated by several institutions from the promiscuous countries Denmark and Norway who secretly hate Islam and its leaders... Settling for [merely] boycotting these cowards is a position of weakness that is indicative of a feeble nation that does not stand up in defense of its Prophet and the principles that it believes in.  They started [the battle] and they should suffer its consequences.  We call upon all our brigades in the Mujahideen Army to attack whatever they possibly can in these two countries specifically, and in other countries who repeat what they have done� Let us make our own efforts on top of Allah�s expected revenge�and hopefully, Allah will choose us to be among those who seek revenge for Mohammed in his name, as this in itself is a great honor for a Muslim.�      

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

US Response to the Terror State of Hamas-stan Should Include Immediate Immigration Denial

By Bill West

The Palestinian people have voted and duly elected a government in their territories that will be dominated and controlled by an internationally recognized terrorist organization (FTO), Hamas. Realistically, Israel may quickly decide to respond to this with severe unilateral security measures that will surely include a stronger clampdown on the ability of Palestinians to cross Israeli borders. Philosophically, the Israelis cannot be blamed for taking such measures.

Most Palestinians may view Hamas as something other than a terrorist organization, but from an American perspective, does that or should that really matter? All the arguments of �living under occupation� aside, we should remember that it was Chief Palestinian Terrorist Yasser Arafat who turned down a genuine offer of a real Palestinian state and potential peace during the waning days of the Clinton Administration. From any rational perspective, for a very long time, the de facto Palestinian �state� has been a Mid-East welfare state living on the largesse of international donors such as the United States and the European Union.

Zawahiri's message: "your -US- assessment is wrong, we're winning"

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

The new Zawahiri videotape released by al Jazeera today shows a sophistication in the propaganda war waged by the Jihadists worldwide against the US and its allies. Designed to "crumble" the morale of the American public and "boost" the commitments of the Jihadi forces, the tape is another attempt to score points in the War of ideas and media. The results were immediate in the West. The Associated Press immediate leads were stunning: 1) Zawahiri proves he wasn't killed by the US strike, therefore he scored one point against the US. 2) He labeled his enemy, the US President, as "butcher of Washington," hence attempting to rally the widest anti-American axis as possible AP lead. But the tape is not just that, another message from the number two in al Qaida. It is a very well orchestrated political offensive aimed at the nervous centers of the "enemy's public. A shot that may preceed action or asking for it. Here are the ingredients:

Bill Fox to Leave FinCEN

By Dennis Lormel

Bill Fox, Director, FinCEN, announced his resignation today. Bill has accepted a position with Bank of America. I had the privelege of working closely with Bill when I was the Chief of the Terrorist Financing Operations Section at the FBI. At that time, Bill worked as Special Assistant to Treasury General Counsel David Aufhauser. Mr. Fox has been one of the true unsung heroes in the war against terrorist financing. One of the attributes I admire most about Bill is his commitment to doing the right thing, regardless of the potential consequence. As Director of FinCEN, Bill has worked tirelessly to partner with the financial industry as well as with the government agencies that serve as his constituancy. As an example, he has greatly facilitated the FBI's ability to access and analyze BSA suspicious activity and currency transaction report information. This has had a direct and positive impact on the FBI's terrorist financing investigative program. On the banking front, Bill has been keenly sensitive to the myriad of issues concerning financial institutions. He has spent considerable time addressing such issues and ensured his accessibility by participating in many industry forums. Bill has been a a great leader in the community and will be greatly missed. He is held in the highest regard in many circles.

I wish Bill and his family the best of luck in their future endeavors. The government's loss has clearly been Bank of America's gain.

Denmark: The Next Terrorist Target?

By Evan Kohlmann

Last September, the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten caused an uproar when it published a series of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed that were deemed blasphemous by many conservative Muslims.  One of the cartoons depicted Mohammed with his eyes blacked out, carrying a curved dagger and flanked by women wearing burqas.  Another showed him wearing a turban shaped like a bomb, complete with lit fuse.  The tempest-in-a-teacup controversy resurfaced this month when a Norwegian Christian magazine decided to republish the cartoons because editors were reportedly "sick of the ongoing hidden erosion of the freedom of expression."  In response, fundamentalists have declared war on the Danish government and are attempting to enforce a Muslim boycott on goods from Scandanavia.  Militants operating on the Internet have issued open calls to Usama Bin Laden "to add Denmark to your list of upcoming targets."  Even the Mujahideen Army (a prominent Sunni insurgent group in Iraq) has today issued its own official statement bitterly condemning Denmark and Norway over the cartoons.

This latest episode only underscores worrisome rising tensions in Denmark between Muslims and non-Muslims.  Last weekend after speaking at a conference organized by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I had a chance to explore Copenhagen a bit beyond the halls of government.  In a small and crowded bar in the center of the city, I came across a group of talkative, young Palestinians.  After hearing me speaking in English, they asked me where I was from and quickly added, "We love Americans, but we hate Bush!"  We began a lengthy exchange in broken Arabic and English.  One of them, a young man from Irbid, Jordan pointed to me and explained, "You, you OK.  But these people," darkly gesturing to the crowd of native Danes surrounding us, "they are no good."  I pressed him on whether the situation had really become that dire.  He assured me that him and his friends were dreaming of departing Denmark as soon as possible and returning to the Palestinian territories, to Ramallah and Tulkarem.  The men also expressed avid support for Hamas and triumphantly celebrated its recent victory in the Palestinian elections.

Many in Denmark remain convinced that their country remains immune to the threat of terrorism, and are loathe to compare their own dilemma to the recent transformation of their Dutch neighbors following the Van Gogh assassination and the arrest of the Hofstadtgroup.  But one cannot ignore the growing incidences of intimidation and violence directed towards Danish journalists and others who have helped expose the activities of local religious fanatics.  While Britain, Italy, and France may seem as the more obvious targets of contemporary terrorists, it would be a mistake to immediately dismiss the latest volley of threats directed toward Denmark as mere bluster.

See also:
- Reuters: Cartoons bring Muslim wrath on Denmark
- http://www.no4denmark.com
- Internet Haganah: "The Danish Threat"
- Infovlad: "Denmark Again???"

Congress to Pass Second Short-Term Extension of USA Patriot Act

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. House is scheduled to take up the USA Patriot Act this week. The extension which passed in December expires on February 3. I understand that a second short-term extension into March is likely. House Judiciary Chairman Sensenbrenner has issued numerous press releases highlighting changes to the Act in the final conference report to protect civil liberties. There have been private discussions on Capitol Hill that could, if the stars align, result in a permanent bill. But it will be difficult to reach a final agreement in the current political atmosphere, with the NSA surveillance program hearings beginning on February 6.

Another Intriguing Story of al Qaeda and Gemstones

By Douglas Farah

There is an intriguing story that I have been following for a while, and carried superbly in today's Washington Post on Adullah Tabarak, Osama bin Laden's bodyguard who was mysteriously released from Guantanamo despite his significant role in al Qaeda. He was also, by his own admission, part of a "gemstone smuggling ring" that al Qaeda operated near Kandahar.

There is much that is strange about Tabarak's situation. He became the "emir" of Guantanamo, respected for taking the heat of bin Laden at Tora Bora by taking the leader's sat phone, making calls and luring away coalition forces, who followed him rather than bin Laden. Tabarak was captured. Bin Laden was not.

While in Guantanamo, Tabarak, according to European intelligence sources, called for hunger strikes that were almost universally obeyed. No one questioned his authority. His status was such that he was not allowed visits by the ICRC out of "military necessity," according to the U.S military.

Then suddenly Tabarak was released to Morocco, where he remains largely free. Why he was released by U.S. officials remains a mystery. Europeann al Qaeda experts are baffled by the move and the feeling that the U.S. community simply did not realize the value of Tabarak when they allowed him to go free.

One of the intriguing passages of Tabarak's testimony refers to his work in a "gemstone smuggling ring" while working in Kandahar. It operated from 1997-2001, exactly matching my stories on the diamond trade. To read my complete blog go here.

The Hamas Gate..

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

January 26, 2006

As soon as the Palestinian commission for elections declared Hamas as a winner of the legislative elections in Gaza and the West Bank, a hurricane of questions slammed international media, Governments, politicians, and analysts. Among officials of the Palestinian Authority: what's next? Will Hamas ruin the advances in international recognition? Within Israel: Is the Peace process dead? How can we deal with a Terrorist Government? In the West: Is Democracy a weapon for radicals in the Arab world? And in America: How to deal with Hamas? These and more dramatic questions are the direct result of a political earthquake that seemed to shake off the foundations of the new US policy in the region: People are eager for freedom. But in the Palestinian territories, voters gave Terror a resounding legitimacy: Why, and more importantly, what is to happen?

Danish leftist group openly funding terrorist organizations

By Olivier Guitta

Indeed, the far left group Rebellion has admitted to transfer 14,000 Euros (around $17,000) to the Colombian FARC and the Palestinian FPLP, both on the European Union list of terror organizations. Rebellion considers these two groups as being "secular, democratic and humanist". Also, its spokesman is also charged for having called on national TV other far left groups to collect money for other terror groups placed on the EU's black list.

Rebellion placed on its website this fundraising operation and got 35 other leftists groups in Denmark and around the world to relay on their own websites this same call for collecting money on behalf of terror groups. Among them was the leftist Danish political party Enhedslisten that scored 3.4% during the February 2005 elections. Enhedslisten only recently agreed to remove the fundraising effort from their website.

Rebellion is being sued on these two charges and the trial should start next month. It is high time that our democracies deal with the alliance between some in the far left and terrorist groups. Clamping down on them strongly would definetely send the message. We can trust Danish justice to do the right thing (Denmark has been one of our staunchest allies in the War on Terror).

Senate Judiciary Democrats Question Att. Gen. Gonzales on NSA Surveillance

By Andrew Cochran

On Wednesday, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter sent a letter to Attorney General Gonzales with 15 questions to be answered at the February 6 committee hearing on the NSA surveillance program. Committee Democrats sent their own letter yesterday with 6 questions, including demands for numerous documents from within the Executive Branch pertaining to the decisions surrounding the program. I'm sure that the Attorney General will not provide documents which would reveal the discussions and deliberations within the Executive Branch, and I'm also sure that the committee Democrats knew that when they drafted the letter. Sen. Specter's letter didn't explicitly ask for any documents, and the Attorney General will not disclose Executive Branch deliberations in response to his questions, either.

Report: "The Role of Islamic Charities in International Terrorist Recruitment and Financing"

By Evan Kohlmann

This week, I presented a paper on behalf of the Danish Institute of International Studies at an international development conference organized by Denmark's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Copenhagen.  My report, titled "The Role of Islamic Charities in International Terrorist Recruitment and Financing", may be downloaded for free in PDF format or, alternatively, can be ordered in printed form directly from the DIIS.

Abstract: "The roots of the contemporary radicalisation and support to terrorism can be traced back two decades to the organisational lessons of the Soviet-Afghan war. At the time a number of sympathetic NGOs provided various kind of assistance which proved to be invaluable in the longterm struggle. By clothing their militant activity with charitable ideals, radical militants discovered that they were able to maintain their level of efficiency while working with very few restrictions on an international level. The practice of radical and militant involvement with NGOs and charitable organisations continues today, and an understanding of the linkages between radicalisation and the NGO community is necessary when considering development interventions."

Columbia Passport Ring Bust Another Reason to End Visa Waiver Program

By Michael Cutler

Repeat after me, "The Visa Waiver Program endangers our nation and our citizens!" If you don't agree with that statement, or if you do not understand the reason I am this emphatic about the Visa Waiver Program, I want you to read this CNN article about the bust of the Columbian fake passport ring. The Visa Waiver Program was designed to make it easier for aliens to enter the United States. It was implemented in segments nearly 20 years ago, long before the attacks on the World Trade Center of 1993 and 2001. As a result of those attacks and the other attacks launched by terrorists against our nation our citizens have seen a number of measures that have been implemented in the name of national security. The administration has engaged in a controversial domestic surveillance program. Here in New York trucks and other vehicles are often searched by law enforcement officials as a matter of routine. We are warned that telling a 'joke' that makes reference to a bomb or other such weapon at an airport may get you arrested. It is more difficult to obtain driver's licenses. Because Richard Reid, the so-called "shoe bomber" concealed an explosive device in his shoe, we must all remove our shoes to make certain we haven't concealed a bomb in our shoes. However, Mr. Reid was a citizen of Great Britain and as such was eligible to enter the United States without first obtaining a visa; yet the Visa Waiver Program is still alive and well facilitating the entry of aliens from 26 countries plus Canada into the United States.

It is worth noting that one of the defendants in this investigation has been identified as being a dual national; Colombian and Palestinian. Our officials keep downplaying the crisis we face at our nation's borders whether we are talking about the armed incursion of possible Mexican soldiers escorting drug loads into our country or the possibility that terrorists may have had their entry into our country facilitated by the insane Visa Waiver Program. This is particularly difficult to comprehend because the President has been traveling around the country to make a case for his domestic wiretapping/surveillance program. Certainly the potential that terrorists may have entered our country would give his arguments greater credibility, yet his absolute and highly obvious intentions to leave our borders wide-open seem to override his desire to justify his surveillance program.

I am attaching, to the end of this post, several counts of the indictment that make it clear that the alien smugglers/fraud passport vendors made use of the ease with which aliens could enter the United Sates under the auspices of the Visa Waiver Program, using "counterfeit Colombian, Spanish, Portuguese and German passports," quoting the CNN article. You can find the full indictment and DOJ press release here.

Davos Forum: Another anti-Israel Vehicle?

By Andrew Cochran

Aren't there enough pressing issues to address at the World Economic Forum without reducing it to yet another opportunity to showcase those who wish to see Israel shunted aside? First, an article called �Boycott Israel� in the Global Agenda magazine was published by the Forum and given to all the participants (full article below). According to a NYT story, the author of the article, Mazim Qumsiyeh, said he had been asked by a staff writer at the magazine to write this piece. Again according to the NYT, Klaus Schwab, Executive Director of the Forum, said that the article should not have been published and had "slipped through the editing process.� He further stated that "The article is totally in contradiction to my own, and the forum's, mission and values."

Perhaps. But why was the Muslim American Society�s (MAS) Mahdi Bray asked to address the conference? The same Mahdi Bray stood behind Abdurahman Alamoudi (now serving 23 years in prison on terrorism financing charges) cheering on Hamas and Hizbollah in front of the White House: "I have been labeled by the media in New York as being a supporter of Hamas. Anybody supporters of Hamas here? Hear that, Bill Clinton? We are all supporters of Hamas ... I wish they added that I am also a supporter of Hezbollah." For more on on Bray and MAS, see Daveed Gartenstein-Ross' December 11 post ("...extremists founded MAS and that, despite efforts to clean up its public image, the core of its teachings remains unchanged") and my August 10 post ("Ismail (Randall) Royer, former MAS Communications Director, was one of the American-born young men from the Washington suburbs who was convicted in that very same Lashkar-e-Taiba training camp case").

Download DavosBoycottIsraelArticle.pdf

The ACLU and Al-Arian, Part II?

By Bill West

Yesterday, fellow CT Blog contributor Steve Emerson, who is also the Executive Director of the Investigative Project on Terrorism, wrote an outstanding article about how the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is apparently incapable of finding a Palestinian terror suspect it does not love. I wanted to do a quick follow-up on one point Steve made in his piece.

The ACLU has written a letter to the Department of Justice urging the dismissal of the remaining criminal charges against Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) suspect Sami Al-Arian in Tampa. Those nine charges remain pending for possible retrial after a hung jury in the first trial last month.

Miami ? Colombia Bust Highlights Border Security Threat

By Bill West

Media reports today revealed the arrests in Colombia on Thursday of 19 suspects allegedly involved in a passport forgery ring. Among those arrested are eight of ten defendants indicted in Miami for providing material support to the Colombian terrorist organization �Fuerzas Armadas de Revolucion Colombiano�, or FARC, US designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Those Miami defendants are also accused of an alien smuggling and false document scheme that is suspected of bringing people they believed to be FARC operatives into the United States.

How Will Hamas's Electoral Victory Change the Middle East?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Hamas's victory in Wednesday's parliamentary elections casts grave doubt upon future Israeli-Palestinian relations. Beyond that, pundits are wondering what kind of sea change this could produce in the overall political landscape of the Middle East. As was the case when Ariel Sharon suffered a major stroke earlier this month, there is a large amount of confusion about what the aftermath will hold. But here are a few points worth bearing in mind as we hurtle toward a world in which Hamas will have its chance to govern.

First, the electoral results do not necessarily signal an endorsement of Hamas's terrorist tactics and stated desire for genocide. Many Palestinians clearly did vote for Hamas because of the group's sponsorship of terror and its devotion to the destruction of Israel, but many others were simply fed up with the ruling Fatah party's corruption and utter failure to make the lives of ordinary Palestinians better. Sadly, for those who wanted to see Fatah ousted, Hamas was the only real game in town.

Second, moving beyond this particular election, it's remarkable to witness the broad trend toward democratization in the Middle East. It seems like the majority of Middle Easterners have cast their ballots over the past several months. Witness not only elections in the Palestinian Authority and Iraq, but also Lebanon, Egypt and Saudi Arabia (municipal elections). It appears that this trend toward democratization is irreversible, at least in the short term. Certainly the U.S. is in no position, after having pushed democracy as the solution to the region's woes, to put the brakes on the democratization process.

Third, being elected tends to have a moderating effect on radical groups. Observe the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, which -- while far from an exemplar -- has served in Jordan's parliament since 1987. However, moderation is not a given. It is important that the U.S. and the world community not be myopic, but instead hold Hamas accountable moving forward and not make excuses for them. Particularly unhelpful in this regard are comments such as those by the UN's envoy to the Middle East Alvaro de Soto (as noted by my colleague Andrew Cochran yesterday): "Let's judge the participants in the government by what they do, not by what they have said in the past." Aside from the fact that Hamas's critics are not just judging the group by what it has "said in the past" but rather by the fact that it is literally responsible for hundreds of deaths, positing a sort of "blank slate" for the terrorist group sends a dangerous signal of weakness and moral confusion.

Fourth, one of the biggest long-term dangers from Hamas's electoral victory is that even if the group neither renounces violence nor wavers in its commitment to Israel's destruction, other countries may begin to view Hamas as a legitimate "peace partner" for Israel simply because it won this election. This would be bad for Israel and also bad for the West, because it would mean that we're starting to put the moral blinders back on (that is, if they ever came off in the first place).

Finally, the Bush administration needs to rethink its approach to democracy-building in the Middle East. Thus far, the administration has emphasized voting much more than liberal institution-building. Doing so creates a Catch-22 for both the U.S. and also Middle Eastern voters. The current choice in most countries is between the corrupt status quo regimes and the Islamist opposition. Those who want to vote the current government out of power are forced to vote for open enemies of the United States and its allies in the region. By promoting liberal institutions such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press and freedom of religion, we can attempt to move beyond a situation where voters are forced to choose between thieves and killers.

The ACLU?s Palestinian Terrorist Friends

By Steven Emerson

The American Civil Liberties Union has sent a letter (Acrobat) to Department of Justice calling for the dismissal of the remaining charges against former University of South Florida professor Sami al-Arian. Citing Al-Arian�s acquittal on 8 of the 17 charges against him, the ACLU claims that since �the two most serious charges� were thrown out, that al-Arian should be set free, and that such a move would demonstrate that the United States �welcomes religious and ethnic diversity.�

While it is true that al-Arian was found not guilty on two important terrorism-related charges, the ACLU conveniently ignores that the jury deadlocked on several serious terrorism charges, including �Conspiracy to Provide Material Support to a Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization,� �Conspiracy to Make and Receive Contributions of Funds, Goods, or Services to, or for the Benefit of Specially Designated Terrorists,� as well as racketeering and money laundering charges.

Further, during Al-Arian�s trial, his own lawyers conceded he was affiliated with the �cultural, charitable� arm of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a terrorist group which has claimed the lives of hundreds of innocent victims by sending suicide bombers to shopping malls, restaurants and buses. Upon news of the verdict, the St. Petersburg Times, largely favorable to Al-Arian during the trial, called him a �carrier of hate,� and said that, �[a]s a legal resident, Al-Arian has abused this nation's hospitality and engaged in conduct that may warrant his deportation� - conduct which the ACLU apparently believes contributes to the �religious and ethnic diversity� of the United States.

PIJ is not the only Palestinian terrorist group to find its way onto the ACLU�s docket.

The African Pipeline Grows, the Brotherhood Emerges Again in Sudan

By Douglas Farah

My intelligence contacts are charting an alarming growth of global Islamic jihad groups creating camps in northern West Africa, particularly Mali and Chad. This is coupled with an unusual resurgence of visits of leaders of the international Muslim Brotherhood to Khartoum, Sudan on a regular basis.

The total number of people in the Mali camps are believed to be in the few hundreds, but are drawn from Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Mali, Togo, Cameroon and elsewhere. The GSPC seems to be making a concerted effort at recruitment, and after training periods of several weeks, the recruits are dispersed, some to Iraq and some to other areas. Morocco, Algeria and Nigeria seem to be the primary targets for attack in the near to mid term.

It appears the camps that were operating in Sudan may have been shifted south, further out of the small international spotlight that occassionally shines on Sudan. That is not to say Sudan has gone passive in the global jihaidist wars. Contingents of senior leaders of the international Muslim Brotherhood have recently been making frequent trips to Khartoum. It is not entirely clear what the purpose of those meetings are. It comes at a time when the Brotherhood, long the financial lifeline of the jihadist movements, is setting up a whole new structure across Europe and Africa, rebuilding and expanding the structure that served them so well for so many years before 9-11, and has been under some pressure since then.

Not that the Brotherhood is in any danger of disappearing. Its vast offshore structure in Panama, the Bahamas, Liechstenstein and elsewhere has only been nicked occassionally by the increasingly ineffectual efforts the UN, US and EU to understand and cut off the flow of the constantly-shifting flow of resources that benefits the global jihadist movement. To read the complete blog, go here.

Oops! Now you see it, now you don't...

By Evan Kohlmann

Last week, I reported on a stunning U.S. Predator airstrike on a village in northwestern Pakistan that allegedly killed former Al-Qaida training camp manager Abu Khabab al-Masri (a.k.a. Midhat Mursi).  Abu Khabab had long been a top priority for U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and a $5 million reward for his capture was announced last year on the U.S. government website rewardsforjustice.net.  At the time, the reward announcement was accompanied by a grainy photo of a bearded individual said to be Abu Khabab al-Masri.  The problem, of course, is that U.S. counter-terrorism officials have somehow confused Abu Khabab's likeness for that of another notorious Egyptian Al-Qaida recruiter currently on trial in the United Kingdom, Abu Hamza al-Masri.  Most embarrassingly, the mistaken photo appears to have been taken directly from a British broadcast television interview of Abu Hamza in the U.K. from circa 1991 (before the latter's arms were blown off in an explosion in Afghanistan).  Over the last 24 hours, administrators of rewardsforjustice.net have sheepishly removed the mistaken photo of Abu Khabab after being notified of the error--and have replaced it instead with a blank shadow.

Certainly, these silly mistakes can and do happen as a matter of course -- but one is left to wonder how U.S. officials can be so certain that Abu Khabab al-Masri was killed in last week's airstrike in Pakistan if they do not even know what he actually looks like...

See also: MSNBC - U.S. posts wrong photo of 'al-Qaida operative'

Summary of News & Opinions on Hamas Victory

By Andrew Cochran

It's official: Hamas won 76 of the 132 seats in the PNA parliament, with Fatah winning 43 seats and the Prime Minister and cabinet resigning. The victors and the vanquished are already fighting, "Hamas and Fatah activists clashed at the Palestinian parliament in the West Bank city of Ramallah...the trouble started after Hamas members hoisted a green Hamas flag at the entrance to the building, and Fatah supporters tried to tear it down." Despair in Israel: "On the streets of the Jewish state, there was grave concern at the victory of the Hamas movement that carried out nearly 60 suicide bombings during a Palestinian uprising and is formally dedicated to destroying Israel." Acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert states, "I will not negotiate with a government that does not meet its most basic obligations -- to fight terrorism." President Bush says the U.S. position on Hamas hasn't changed, ""If your platform is the destruction of Israel, you're not a partner in peace" and any such group "is a party with which we will not deal." But Arab commentators and Islamists predict an eventual rapprochement, "(Israel and the United States) will have no alternative but to deal with Hamas." Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says the Hamas victory would be a "very, very, very negative thing." Top EU official says, "We are prepared to work with any Palestinian government, if this government seeks peace, using peaceful means." U.N. envoy to the Middle East Alvaro de Soto sweeps Hamas' long history of terrorism and unchanged goals under the rug, "Let's judge the participants in the government by what they do, not by what they have said in the past." The Iranian government congratulates Hamas, "The massive participation of the Palestinians shows their will to continue the struggle and resistance against occupation." One academic sees a silver lining, "Had they won 30-35 percent of the seats, they could have stayed out of power but put enormous limits on the Palestinian Authority�s room to maneuver. By winning, they have to govern, which means they have to tell the world, very soon, a number of things."

Pictures of Hamas victory celebrations:

Europeans Question How Far to Go in Combating Terrorism, American Debate May Follow

By Victor Comras

My colleague, Olivier Guitta , in an excellent blog posted January 23rd, posited an improved level of cooperation between the United States and Europe in combating terrorism. Considerable strides have been made since the March 2004 Madrid bombing to enhance intelligence sharing and other cooperation between the US and Europe. Yet, public support, in Europe, for such cooperation is beginning to wane. This stems in part from a series of allegations during the past six months that the United States may have gone too far on issues that touch on European and American civil and human rights sensibilities These concerns are reflected in the widely circulated Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly�s Report on allegations concerning rendition and secret prisons in Europe. The report prepared by Swiss Parliamentarian Dick Marty is highly critical of many of the tactics being used in the war on terrorism. His report focuses anew European public attention on issues related to rendition, secret prisons and questionable interrogation methods.

State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack pooh-poohed the report, but European governments are taking it more seriously. EU Justice Commissioner and Vice-President Franco Frattini, while reserving his own position on the report, has urged all European countries to closely review its content and to �clarify their position� with regard to the activities alleged therein. He noted that "it is highly unlikely that European governments, or at least their intelligence services, were unaware" of such activities.

Most European governments have, so far, refused to be drawn into the debate. They neither confirm, nor deny the allegations, noting that intelligence related matters must remain clothed in secrecy. But, these responses are not likely to make the issues go away. Press and parliamentary reactions in several European countries, including the UK, have put increased pressure on European governments to distance themselves from such actions.

Investigative reporters and opposition parliamentarians are likely to continue to hold their government�s �feet to the fire,� regarding these allegations. The fact is that there are already a number of investigations underway across Europe concerning possible violations of European laws and human rights standards. These include charges that US agents may have broken local laws.
The Marty report draws specific attention to an alleged CIA abduction from Italy in 2003 of an Egyptian citizen, Abu Omar who was sent to Egypt for interrogation. He was subsequently released but complained of being tortured while in Egyptian hands. The Italian prosecutor�s office has gone so far as issuing arrest warrants against the CIA agents responsible. Similarly, German judicial authorities have launched an investigation into the case of a German citizen of Lebanese origin, Khaled al Masri, who was allegedly arrested by mistake in Macedonia and transported to Kabul for interrogation. The Polish Government and the Romanian Parliament also have enquiries underway as to whether the CIA maintained secret detention locations on their territories. The facts regarding all of these cases are unclear, but the negative public perception is very real.

The American public has been slower to take up the rendition/secret prison debate, but revelations of NSA eavesdropping on US citizen overseas calls, and allegations concerning the use of questionable interrogation methods bordering on torture, have already gotten some attention. Al Gore�s speech last week, the need for Congress to take some action on Patriot Act renewal before February 3rd, expected hearings on the NSA eavesdropping program, and new proposed anti-torture legislation may make all of these issues front page news here also during the coming days. And perhaps a true national debate on our tactics and methods might not be a bad thing at this important junction in our War on Terrorism.

Senate Judiciary Chairman's Letter on NSA Program to Att. Gen. Gonzales (with letter)

By Andrew Cochran

Sen. Arlen Specter, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, wrote a 3-page letter to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, asking him to address 15 specific subjects in the opening statement at the committee's upcoming hearing on the NSA surveillance issue on February 6. The subjects include, "Why did the Executive not ask for the authority to conduct electronic surveillance when Congress passed the Patriot Act and was predisposed, to the maximum extent likely, to grant the Executive additional powers which the Executive thought necessary?...Why did the Executive Branch not seek after-the-fact authorization from the FISA Court within the 72 hours as provided by the Act?...What case law does the Executive rely upon in asserting Article II powers to conduct the electronic surveillance at issue?" You can download the full letter below:
Download 012406SpecterGonzalesNSA.pdf

Osama's unmistakable message

By Walid Phares

I posted on January 19 with my initial interpretation of the new Bin Laden tape.  Now, a longer analysis:  In his last audiotape, aired at the discretion of al Jazeera a few days ago, the lord of al Qaeda seemed to be trying to score many points, using new editorial tactics and addressing more than one audience. His prepared speech seemed more a state of jihad address than a specific threat to America although sounding very menacing.  So what was the message really about?

As of September, the jihadi chat rooms have asked if "we are we winning the war on the infidels?" The mentors of the rooms have tried to reassure the participants that all was going fine, referring to the letters between Ayman al Zawahiri and Abu Musab al Zarqawi. But 2005 left a lot of explaining for the jihadists in the region: elections in Afghanistan with millions of women voting and being elected; two elections and one referendum in Iraq: A Cedar Revolution in Beirut and debates about democracy raging on the Internet.

Despite car bombs, assassinations, massacres, kidnapping and videotapes on al Jazeera and beyond, the jihadists weren't going anyway. Young people in the Arab and Middle East region are turning increasingly to freedom, contradicting the ideological speeches of al Qaeda and its sisters in the region. Blood alone was not bringing victory to the jihadists.

Daily Standard: The Mullah Wars

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My new article, "The Mullah Wars," is posted today at the Daily Standard. The article discusses how Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has created massive frictions within the regime that the U.S. should seek to understand and exploit. An excerpt:

Far from being an ordinary politician, Ahmadinejad is an idealist, one whose ideals are rooted in the bloodstained Iranian revolution. Ahmadinejad's total devotion to these revolutionary principles caused Amir Taheri, an astute observer of Iranian politics, to refer to the president as "Iran's perilously honest man."

Part of Ahmadinejad's perilous honesty is exposing the Iranian political establishment's corruption. An initial report from an audit of public finances that the president ordered found over $100 billion of Iran's oil revenue since the revolution not "properly accounted for." Ahmadinejad thinks that the mullahs themselves have been compromised. In this regard, Taheri explains that Ahmadinejad believes "the ruling mullahs have milked the system and, having become rich, can no longer share the revolutionary aspirations of the poor masses."

Far more noticeable to Westerners, though, is Ahmadinejad's honesty about the Iranian regime's ideals. Unlike past president Mohammad Khatami, Ahmadinejad doesn't quote Habermas in his speeches for the benefit of Western audiences. His frank statement that Israel must be "wiped off the map" is far more to the point. This bluntness is yet another weapon that Ahmadinejad uses to bludgeon the mullahs. In his eyes, the tendency of Iranian political elites to give speeches pleasing to Western ears one day then say something different in Farsi after coming home is evidence of their lack of faith. Ahmadinejad believes that the world should hear only the true revolutionary message rather than watered down pronouncements about a "dialogue of civilizations."

Read the whole article here.

U.S. & Pakistan Must Face Facts About Al Qaeda's Reported Resurgence

By Andrew Cochran

Pakistan's Prime Minister is in Washington, trying to persuade American policymakers that his government has successfully stripped Al Qaeda of its leadership and assets. As he makes the diplomatic rounds here, President Musharraf is on a public relations campaign claiming, "We've taken over their sanctuaries. Where they were in the hundreds, now they are only in the dozens around in the mountains and we are chasing them. Which country in the world has arrested 700 Al Qaeda people, all the important ones? Only Pakistan."

But press reports from the ground in the northwestern Pakistan province of Waziristan tell a completely different story. ABC News' Brian Ross reports tonight that Al Qaeda and the Taliban are "in the midst of a powerful resurgence, according to accounts by local officials" and new Al Qaeda tapes. Four Taliban who escaped from the American prison near Kabul last year appear on tape, describing how they attacked an Afghan government building. The ABC News report mirrors the analysis by Syed Saleem Shahzad on January 20 that Al Qaeda "has secured a series of safe havens in Khost-North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Kunar-Chitral, Kunar-Bajur," and the Pakistan government has lost all control of Waziristan.

Pakistan cannot try to hide the truth; only one version of the actual facts exist. Either President Musharraf or the press reports are right. The U.S. and Pakistan must determine through reliable human intelligence whether Pakistan, with substantial American help, is eliminating Al Qaeda, or whether a terrorist resurgence will threaten Afghanistan's budding democracy and will serve as a renewed training ground for Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. We can't afford another intel mistake hidden behind rose-colored glasses and only disclosed in the rubble of a deadly attack.

Hamas: Winning at the Polls?Losing in the Courtroom

By Steven Emerson

On the eve of the Palestinian elections, as Hamas is poised to gain power and legitimacy, a Jerusalem court recently reminded us that Hamas is much more than just a political party. In a Jerusalem District Court decision announced this week, Israeli judge Aharon Farkash held Hamas liable for 100 million shekels (approximately $22 million) for a 2002 terrorist attack that killed four Israelis. On March 28, 2002 at 8:30 p.m. during the Passover holiday, Hamas gunman, Ahmed Hafez Abed Al-Jawad, entered the home of the Gavish family and killed four family members: Rachel and David Gavish, their son Abraham, 25, and Rachel's father Yitzhak Kaner, 74. Jawad is memorialized on the website of the Ezzedine al-Qassam brigades, Hamas�s military wing.

Last year, the family of an American victim of a Hamas attack successfully sued a Hamas operative and several front groups in the United States. The parents of David Boim won a $156 million civil judgment against Muhammad Salah, the Holy Land Foundation, the Islamic Association for Palestine, the Quranic Literacy Institute and the American Muslim Society, dealing a blow to Hamas fundraising activities in the United States.

As part of its electioneering efforts, Hamas has hired an image consultant to help reinvent itself as a moderate political organization. According to recent polls Hamas is expected to make a strong showing in tomorrow�s elections. Israel and the United States have made it clear that they will not work with a government comprised of members of a terrorist organization, and the U.S. government has transferred two million dollars to the Palestinian Authority, through USAID, for the election campaign. Similarly, the Palestinian Authority has also exerted extra efforts to guarantee that Fatah comes out on top, by distributing a letter to all Palestinian Authority security forces urging them to vote for Fatah.

Since any legitimacy gained as a result of its electoral success is unlikely to lessen or vitiate Hamas� militancy, private lawsuits initiated by victims of Hamas terrorism, such as the Gavish and Boim families, will continue to be an important tool in combating terrorist groups.

Bin Laden emerges from obscurity

By Evan Kohlmann

After over a year of deafening silence, Al-Qaeda�s top commander Osama Bin Laden has once again emerged from obscurity with a new audio recording broadcast on Al-Jazeera, boasting of Al-Qaeda�s role in recent terrorist bombings in Europe and promising to carry out similar operations in the United States in the coming months.  Though Bin Laden professed to be speaking directly to the American people, it seems more likely that this latest message was directed primarily towards his supporters in the Muslim world.  If this is the case, there is really no need to search for hidden codes or secret messages�the meaning is quite apparent.  Indeed, while Al-Qaeda continues to prosper in certain areas of the Middle East and South Asia, Osama Bin Laden�s personal image has begun to wane slightly as other extremist leaders vying for the throne have achieved equal, if not greater infamy.  In particular, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has presented an unusual dark horse challenge to Bin Laden�s leadership position at the top of Al-Qaeda.  In contrast to Bin Laden, Zarqawi is known for releasing a steady stream of communiqu�s and audio recordings, keeping in regular contact with his constituents.  It took nearly 18 consecutive months of bloody ambushes and suicide bombings masterminded by Zarqawi to convince Bin Laden to grudgingly unify ranks with him.  By hiding in the shadows for too long, Bin Laden risks allowing younger and more ruthless competitors like Zarqawi to change the very momentum and direction of Al-Qaeda�similar to the way that a young, fanatical Bin Laden once seized the reigns of the organization from its original founder, Shaykh Abdullah Azzam.  For the rest of this blog, go to the MSNBC "Hardblogger" site.

BACK COUNTERTERRORISM RHETORIC WITH PROGRAM FUNDS

By Michael Kraft

The latest threats from Bin Laden in his audio tape released last week should be read by the White House�s OMB budget officials and Congressional appropriators as well as the counterterrorism and intelligence community.

The tape recording was a reminder that although Al Qaeda has not staged a major attack on American soil since September 11, the threat still remains.

The Administration�s FY 2007 budget is in the final stages of preparation before going to Congress in early February. It is important that the OMB approve the full funding requests for the State Department, Justice Department and other anti-terrorism programs.

President Bush repeatedly emphasizes that we must fight terrorists overseas before they can hit us at home. He is usually referring to Iraq, but aside from that situation, we and our allies are vulnerable worldwide. There have been numerous attacks against our allies � Great Britain, France, Morocco, Jordan, Indonesia�by groups either inspired by or affiliated with Al Qaeda. The previous al Qaeda attacks on the US embassies in East Africa and the destroyer Cole show that Bin Laden knows where to find a wide number of US potential targets abroad.

Thus it is important that U.S. maintain and step up its efforts to strengthen the counterterrorism efforts overseas.

Unfortunately, these low key programs have too often gotten short shrift. The pending requests have not been made public, but the past record is not encouraging. OMB typically has cut by around 10 per cent or more the State Department�s request for its Antiterrorism Training Assistance (ATA) program and related programs. Then Congress usually makes further cuts.

The Congressional Conferees on the Fiscal Year 2006 Foreign Aid Appropriations bill last Decemeber cut the State Department�s Antiterrorist Training Assistance (ATA program) by 9 per cent and also slashed several related smaller programs. They allocate only $122.5 million for the ATA program although the Senate version had approved the Administration�s full request of $133.5 million. The Appropriators cut also cut $2 million from the Administration�s $7.5 Million request for the Terrorist Interdiction Program (TIP), which provides a sophisticated data base system for detecting terrorist suspects when they cross international boundaries.

Before the FY 2007 budget goes to Congress in early February the Administration should take another look and make sure that the antiterrorism programs are given their full support. This is not the time to be penny wise and pound foolish.

Naval School Professor Should Be Fired for Proposing to "Test" Osama's "Truce"

By Andrew Cochran

Douglas Borer, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA, has written an op-ed in today's "Christian Science Monitor" titled, "Why not test bin Laden's 'truce' offer?" In my opinion, the piece is ridiculous and repugnant for two reasons. First, he supports his argument with incorrectly stated historical precedents - the events just didn't happen as he cites them. Second, he proposes that we "partner" with OBL and Al Qaeda, who killed thousands of innocent civilians in the 9/11 and other terrorist attacks in Africa, Iraq, and elsewhere through its affiliates. The U.S. Navy should move to dismiss him for such sloppy and morally offensive scholarship.

First, the facts: Borer says that "Yitzhak Rabin buried the hatchet with Yasser Arafat, and thus engendered a peace process..." Actually, when Arafat violated the agreements by continuing to support terrorists, Israeli leaders properly punished him and the PNA, effectively imprisoning Arafat until his death. Borer says Britain has "made peace" with IRA, and the US has "come to terms with Libya's terrorist-sponsoring leader Muammar Qaddafi." Actually, the British defeated the IRA, in part because the IRA lost funding after 9/11, and the IRA recognized its defeat and surrendered. And the U.S. has not removed Libya from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Borer says that we should deal with Al Qaeda as Columbia did with FARC terrorists, by pursuing peace and then reverting to force if Al Qaeda breaks the agreements. But why would we follow a policy that so obviously failed?

Borer says "President Bush can show the world that bin Laden is a bogus partner..." PARTNER??!! After seeing Al Qaeda's multiple attacks against the U.S. in Yemen, Africa, the Middle East, and on our homeland, this "professor" pretends that Al Qaeda killers don't have to admit their terrorist actions and can be our PARTNERS??!! To hell with that!! I want to see Predator missiles shoved through every orifice of every Al Qaeda terrorist tomorrow!!

The Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey is an outstanding institution that contributes significantly to the study of terrorism and proliferation. But I cannot believe that my tax dollars are being used by the United States Navy, which lost so many good men to Al Qaeda on the U.S.S. Cole, to pay Borer to distort history and teach that we can even attempt to "partner" with Al Qaeda (EDIT: Borer needs a visual reminder of the attacks from Bill Roggio's site). You can see Borer's bio at the school's website. Rear Admiral Richard Wells, the President of the school, should fire Borer immediately.

Henry Crumpton in Bangkok: A Healthy Degree of Skepticism is Needed

By Zachary Abuza

Yesterday the State Department Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism, Henry Crumpton, was in Bangkok where he met Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Justice Chidchai Vanasatidya, who assured him that the insurgency in southern Thailand is under control. This is the same Chidchai, who less than a week ago, publicly lashed out at the nation�s intelligence services for their utter failings, including being unable to stop 101 coordinated arson attacks in one night. "They know we have the situation under control and that the problem is a domestic matter," said Chidchai after his meeting with Crumpton according to a report in today�s The Nation.

Overview of Euro-American cooperation on terrorism

By Olivier Guitta

I cowrote with Sally Mc Namara, the brilliant International Relations Project Director of American Legislative Exchange Council, a paper for ALEC entitled "Homeland Security in a Global Context: An Overview of European-U.S. Cooperation." You can find the entire report here.
Here is an excerpt:

"The clear rapprochement between U.S. and European intelligence services is one of the most striking aspects of this new cooperation. Former CIA official Stanley Sloan recently noted: �U.S.-European cooperation has been one of the more successful aspects of post-September 11 efforts against international terrorism.� Indeed before September 11, European services would complain of the lack of U.S. cooperation, especially regarding Islamist terrorism. But Europeans now acknowledge that cooperation is much improved. In fact, information is flowing smoothly on both ends and it is utilized more effectively now that services work to complement each other. Indeed, European services� forte � especially France�s � is human intelligence on Islamist terror groups, while the U.S.�s strength is its impressive electronic intelligence gathering capability. Combining the two in an unselfish, cooperative fashion is a win-win combination.

Interestingly enough, political disagreement from some European quarters over the war in Iraq did not impact the level of cooperation between individual European countries and the United States (it is also worth noting that 12 EU Member States were actually part of the initial coalition of the willing). For instance, France, which led opposition to the war in Iraq, has been one of America�s best partners in counterterrorism intelligence efforts. Former CIA Director John Mc Laughlin described the relationship between the CIA and its French counterparts as �one of the best in the world. What they are willing to contribute is extraordinary valuable.� According to The Washington Post, right after September 11, President Chirac advised his intelligence services to collaborate with American ones �as if they were your own service.�

Nevertheless, some rough spots remain in the transatlantic relationship over the global war on terror. Germany�s recent release of Mohammed Hamadi, the life-sentenced Lebanese hijacker and member of Hezbollah who murdered an American serviceman in 1985 and dumped his body on the tarmac of the Beirut airport, is a disgrace � nothing short of an appeasement to terrorists. This is a serious step backward for German-American cooperation in fighting terror."

Father of Suicide Bombing Victim: Golden Globe to "Paradise Lost" Legitimizes Terrorism

By Lee Wolosky

In connection with the Golden Globe award bestowed last week on �Paradise Now� (a movie I have not seen), I wanted to share this response from Yossi Zur, who lost his son in a senseless and depraved suicide bombing in Haifa.  Yossi may be reached at Yossi@blondi.co.il.

Last night the Palestinian movie "Paradise Now" won the Golden Globe award. The movie shows the route that two young Palestinians take to become suicide murderers, up until the minute they board a bus in Tel Aviv filled with children.

The movie looks professional. It was made with great attention to detail, but it is extremely dangerous � not only to the Middle East, but to the whole world.   

My son Asaf, almost 17 years old, was a high school student in the eleventh grade who loved computer science. One day after school he boarded a bus home, as usual. Along the way, a suicide murderer from Hebron, 21 years old, a computer science student at the Hebron Polytechnic, exploded on the bus.  17 people were killed, 9 of them school children aged 18 or less.  My son Asaf was killed on spot.

I watched the movie "Paradise Now" trying to understand what it is trying to say, what message it carries? That the murderer is human?  He is not.  That he has doubts? He has none. After all, he is willing to kill himself along with his victims. That the Israelis are to blame for this brutal killing? Are the Israelis to blame for the Twin Towers in New York, the night club in Indonesia, the hotel in Egypt, the shop in Turkey, the restaurant in Morocco or in Tunis, the hotel in Jordan, the underground in London, the train in Spain? And the list goes on and on.

Two Al Taqwa Directors Removed From UN Al Qaeda Designation List

By Victor Comras

A little noticed UN press release January 19th announced a decision by the Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee to remove Mohamed Mansour and his wife Zeinab Mansour-Fattouh from its consolidated list of designated al Qaeda members and associates. Mohamed and Zeinab Mansour had originally been designated by the US Treasury Department in November 2001, along with Youssef Nada and Ahmed Idris Nasreddin as key members of the al Taqwa banking network. Their UN designation followed shortly thereafter. According to the Treasury Department, �The al Taqwa group� long acted as financial advisers to al Qaida, with offices in Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy and the Caribbean�.{and} provide(d) investment advice and cash transfer mechanisms for al Qaida and other radical Islamic groups.� (Full US Treasury Designation Fact Sheet here)

Mohamed and Zeinab were key shareholders and member�s of Al Taqwa�s board of directors, along with Youssef Nada, Ahmed Idris Nasreddin, Albert Friedrich Armand Huber, and Ali Ghaleb Himmat. There removal from UN designation now comes with no explanation from the UN or the US Treasury Department. There is no indication that the couple have yet been removed from the Treasury (OFAC) designated list. The effect of their removal from the UN list means that their assets can be unfrozen by any jurisdiction and apparently that has already been done in the United Kingdom, Liechtenstein and Switzerland, where they are believed to have held accounts. The other al Taqwa board directors, Nada, Nasreddin, Huber and Himmat remain on the UN Consolidated List.

According to UN Guidelines the government of residence or citizenship and/or the government that originally requested the designation can apply to the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Committee to have the designation removed. Committee consensus is required to grant removal. If consensus cannot be reached the matter may still be referred to the Security Council for resolution. Apparently, the United States concurred in lifting the UN designation on Mohamed and Zeinab Mansour. One must wonder whether and when they might take similar action to remove from the US OFAC list.

While the al Taqwa banking network was shut down shortly after 9/11, the US and its international partners have been singularly unsuccessful in putting those who ran al Taqwa out of business (see my series of earlier blogs on this topic. Action was taken to freeze some bank accounts associated with Youssef Nada, Ahmed Nasreddin, and the other al Taqwa board members. But, many of their business assets remain unfrozen. Nada, Nasreddin and the other al Taqwa board members also escaped any criminal prosecution for their involvement in financing al Qaeda and related groups. In fact the Government of Switzerland�s Prosecutors office was ordered to re-imburse Youssef Nada for some of the expenses he entailed due to their criminal investigation against him. The failure to effectively sanction al Taqwa�s management can only send the wrong message when it comes to dissuading other terrorist financiers.

Walid Phares on Oprah Winfrey Show and Links to Experts' Recent Interviews (updated 1/23)

By Andrew Cochran

Walid Phares will be on Monday's Oprah Winfrey Show with Peter Bergen and Thomas Friedman in a discussion on terrorism. We congratulate Walid for being invited to participate on such an exclusive panel with the most popular talk show host on television, watched by an estimated 49 million viewers a week in the U.S. and broadcast in 121 countries. Check your local listings for times and channels. UPDATE: See this presentation on Oprah's site about the show, including a summary of Walid's comments on the show.

A number of the Contributing Experts were interviewed often last week about the Pakistan strike and the bin Laden tape. Here are links to streaming video of some of these appearances:

Steven Emerson: MSNBC on January 20 - MSNBC on January 19 (see also my post of January 19 on his MSNBC interview earlier that day) - January 17 on MSNBC - With Lorenzo Vidino on Fox on January 21

Evan Kohlmann: MSNBC on January 20 - MSNBC on January 19 - earlier interview on MSNBC on January 19 - also on MSNBC on January 20 about the Jill Carroll kidnapping

Walid Phares: Fox News on January 21 - BBC on January 19 - Fox News on January 19 - MSNBC on January 15

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross: Fox News on January 20 - Fox News on January 16

Additionally, Michael Cutler was interviewed on Fox News on January 21 about whether a major bank should loan to illegal immigrants, a policy which could compromise anti-terrorist financing policies.

Could Hamas Make Palestine the Next Designated Terrorist State?

By Michael Kraft

If Hamas emerges as the winner or a major coalition partner from Wednesday�s Palestinian elections, a fledging Palestinian state runs the risk of being designated as a state sponsor of terrorism and losing U.S. economic assistance and investment.

Hamas already has been formally designated as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the U.S. and other countries. A 1996 U.S. law makes it a criminal offense for American persons to knowingly provide funding or other forms of material support to a designated FTO. As Olivier Gutta noted in his post on Jan 21, Hamas leaders are still calling for the end of Israel and support the use of terrorism to achieve that goal.

Such a designation triggers a number of economic sanctions, including a ban on economic and military assistance, export controls over dual use equipment that could be used for military or terrorism activities as well as civilian activities. A designation also denies tax credits for American individuals and firms doing business in the designated country � an investment disincentive. The sanctions also require the U.S. to oppose loans from the World Bank and other international institutions. Such a designation could further damage the already battered Gaza and West Bank economies which are dependent upon foreign assistance.

Hamas still calling for "the end of the Zionist entity"

By Olivier Guitta

Even though some recent reports have shown a supposed change of heart from the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, a top leader made things clear on Al Jazeera on January 18. In that interview (provided by Proche-Orient info), Ismael Hania stated that Hamas' electoral platform includes the� end of the Zionist entity". He added: "The Islamic resistance movement Hamas is not changing any of its main goals. Dialogue with Israel is not on Hamas' agenda. Hamas does not recognize the Zionist entity and views resistance as the only way to fight the occupier. We tried resistance and we saw that we got very good results. The Palestinian people know that the intifada and the resistance are the only solutions."

When asked about the upcoming elections and Hamas' hopes of gaining numerous seats, Hania replied: "Hamas does not stop at these details, our objective is much more important and rests on martyrdom and the gift of blood for this sacred land."

Now the $64,000 question is what are the US and the European Union do in case of a Hamas presence in the new Palestinian cabinet? Since Hamas is on both the US and the EU list of terrorist organizations, Western governments would have to stick to their guns or lose their credibility...

Excerpts from Zawahiri's Latest Audio Recording

By Evan Kohlmann

On January 18, credible Al-Qaida chat forums on the Internet began to announce that Al-Qaida�s As-Sahab Media Wing was due to release a new audio recording of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri.  Yesterday afternoon, these chat forums posted copies of a 17-minute long recording by Zawahiri extolling the �martyrs� of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad Movement.  Zawahiri concludes by reading a lengthy poem originally conceived by a mujahideen Mullah in Afghanistan.  Although the voice on the audio is almost certainly that of Zawahiri, it is unclear how recently the speech was actually recorded.  Below are excerpts of Zawahiri�s speech before his reading of the Mullah�s poem.

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

Will "Paperless" Visa Applications Disable Terrorism Investigations?

By Michael Cutler

I read this article about the institution of a "paperless" U.S. visa application system, and once again I am not convinced that our government is going what it really needs to do in order to protect us from terrorists and criminals. I am all for progress and the exploitation of technology to help our government and, in fact, all of us work more efficiently. However, considering the track record of this administration, I have real concerns about the use of technology to enable applicants for visas to file electronic applications from remote locations, away from United States Embassies and Consulates. I am cynical about the real motivation behind such a system and the potential that such system will do nothing to enhance our security but may well provide a private contractor with a lucrative program to garner taxpayer dollars while l leaving us less secure in the process.

There are a few areas of concern that this program brings to my mind. First of all, what would prevent the applicant for a visa at a remote location from submitting the fingerprints of another individual? This is worrisome because the whole point to fingerprinting applicants is to make certain as to their true identity and to identify those who may have past criminal histories or who have been previously identified as having violated the immigration laws during prior visits. Because the interview would be conducted by video conferencing, I would be curious as to what provisions are being made to make certain that the applicant for a visa does not have an accomplice, our of camera range coaching the alien seeking the visa by providing advice as to how to respond to questions posed by the consular official who will ultimately adjudicate the application for the visa. I would also like to know if a permanent record will be kept and if so, how will that record be made available to law enforcement officers of ICE and other such agencies who might want to conduct an investigation of an alien who either entered the United States or sought to enter the United States. This becomes especially significant, for example, if the alien applicant for a visa committed fraud on that application.

Daily Standard: Al Qaeda's Olive Branch

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

An expanded version of the analysis of the new bin Laden tape that I provided yesterday is now posted at the Daily Standard. An excerpt:

BY NOW, there can be no doubt that al Qaeda's message to the West has been distilled down to two simple concepts. The first is that the terrorist group can be appeased. The second is that, if they aren't appeased, Westerners face grave consequences. The latest Osama bin Laden audiotape, released on January 19, makes these points explicit and shows how bin Laden intends to fashion his message for Western ears.

In the tape, bin Laden offers a truce in return for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. "We have no objection to responding to a long term truce according to equitable conditions which we would honor," bin Laden says, "so that the two sides could enjoy security and stability under this truce, and so that we could rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan which the war has destroyed." Of course this isn't al Qaeda's first offer of a truce.

It shouldn't be surprising that fashioning an appeal to the American public, and thus attempting to sow discord, is part of bin Laden's strategy. As bin Laden bragged to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn after the Black Hawk Down incident in Somalia, "Hardly eighteen of them were killed, when they fled in the dark of the night, despite the uproar that was created worldwide about the New World Order."

Read the whole article here.

Chirac finally getting tough on terrorists

By Olivier Guitta

Jacques Chirac delivered yesterday his most important speech on terrorism in his ten-year tenure as French president. By specifically explaining the new Chirac doctrine, he is warning terror-sponsoring states.
In fact, Chirac declared that French allies and national interests would be protected and an attack on any of them would be met by a probable nuclear answer. Chirac must have had two good reasons to make that speech and to go from major appeaser to tough on terror:

1) As I have been reporting for the past couple of months on this blog, France has been on a state of high alert because of imminent threats of terrorist attacks on its soil. Just a few days ago, I mentioned the confirmation of the intent of a terrorist network to target civilian planes at French airports. Interestingly, France has also become much tougher with Hizbullah (see here) in the past months and with Iran as well. It would not surprise me that some of the current threats against France are originating in Iran and that would not be the first time. Iran had actually targeted Paris in a wave of bombings in 1986 when, surprise, Chirac was prime minister and chose to appease the terrorist regime of Tehran.

2) Domestic political reason: Chirac is in a major slump; lots of people even in his own camp are asking for his resignation, because of his lack of action. In fact, between Prime Minister De Villepin and Interior Minister Sarkozy, Chirac has left the limelight.

No Outbreak of Anti-American Violence in Muslim World Since Pakistan Strike

By Andrew Cochran

Despite media stories about demonstrations in Pakistan against the U.S. strike, the fact is that there has been no outbreak of anti-American violence, or even a significant anti-American protest, in the Muslim world since the Pakistan strike last week. No American-owned facility, governmental or private in nature, has been bombed or damaged by protesters. To my knowledge (and I survey about 200 articles from sources worldwide daily), no American in those areas has been injured or even attacked. No group of Islamic clerics has issued a fatwa against us which would have any impact among Muslims (I discount the calls by individual clerics issued at this Friday's prayers, but I haven't seen any of those on the web). No American diplomat has been sent home from any Arab country, including from Pakistan. American aid workers, including U.S. military forces, working in the earthquake-ravaged Pak and Kashmir regions and in the tsunami-affected areas in Asia have not been kidnapped, attacked, or told to leave. And the governments or NGO's in those areas are still cashing our aid checks (who says money can't buy you love?). Moreover, none of these events happened in the period when it was most vulnerable to criticism, before we learned that the strike was justified by sound intelligence and so successful. So if the Muslim world hates us, if we are losing the "hearts and minds" battle (as asserted by former Clinton Administration NSC staffers Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon) you can't prove it from any event in the Arab world this week. I don't put much stock in polls as long-term indicators of sentiment, but one Nielsen poll taken in late November for a nonprofit group in the U.S. showed significant higher levels of public support among Pakistanis for the U.S. as a result of our post-earthquake aid. If that turned around on the "Arab street" after the strike, we haven't seen it yet, and I doubt that we will now. EDIT: Contrast the relative silence this week to the riots and killings last year over the supposed "desecration" of the Koran at Gitmo Bay, a story which turned out to be inaccurate.

Steven Emerson: Bin Laden's Bluster "Is Still Bluster"

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson appeared on MSNBC today about the new bin Laden tape. You can see video of his MSNBC appearance here (Windows Media), and here is the transcript (emphasis mine):

NATALIE MORALES: Well, a short time ago the CIA confirmed the fact that the voice on that tape that was aired by Al-Jazeera today is that of Osama Bin Laden. On the tape Bin Laden threatens future attacks on U.S. soil and even offers a truce on unspecified conditions. Joining us now to break this all down is Steve Emerson, terrorism analyst and Executive Director of the Investigative Project. Steve, good to have you with us.

STEVEN EMERSON: Good afternoon, Natalie.

MORALES: Well, it has been in fact a year since we last heard from Bin Laden or a little over a year. Is there anything really new or surprising on this tape in your opinion?

EMERSON: Nothing really new other than the fact that he surfaced. As you know, in the last month or so there have been an increasing number of reports suggesting that he might have disappeared or that he might actually be dead, so the fact that he surfaced here is suggesting that he's feeling more secure in his environment. He lives a very disciplined life and is willing to actually disappear for a long period of time, in this case for almost a year without surfacing. So it suggests that he's now feeling secure in where he is positioned and willing to come out of his cave.

MORALES: And he's threatening new attacks in the U.S., saying that just because there hasn't been a major attack since September 11th, it doesn't mean that the heightened security here in the U.S. is working, in fact, but rather that al Qaeda needs more time for preparations. Did he give any further indication as to an attack being in the works?

EMERSON: He said that attacks are in the works, but he didn't give any specifics and I might note that in the other five or six tapes that were released since 9/11, he's threatened attacks in a very similar manner, yet none have been demonstrated to be true. So it seems to me that his bluster here is still bluster, that in fact if he had the capability of carrying out an attack, Natalie, he would have carried out such an attack. He still doesn't have that capability and that's the good news out of what is coming out of Afghanistan.

Six Messages From the New Bin Laden Tape

By Walid Phares

Alleged Bin Laden Tape Continues to Urge U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

While we don't yet know if the audiotape released today is actually from Osama bin Laden, it is consistent with the rhetoric that he tailored for a Western audience in the past. Many reasons underlie the release of any al-Qaeda tape, including bin Laden's desire to signal his continuing relevance to the terrorist organization. However, if the tape proves to be genuine, it provides further insight on bin Laden's thinking about how al-Qaeda can win its war against the West.

The new tape offers a truce in return for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan:

We have no objection to responding to a long term truce according to equitable conditions which we would honor . . . so that the two sides could enjoy security and stability under this truce, and so that we could rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan which the war has destroyed. There are no flaws in this solution, which would prevent the flow of billions of dollars to the people of influence and the warmongers in America, those who supported the Bush electoral campaign with billions of dollars.

I have written before about al-Qaeda's attempt to signal that it can be appeased (see, for example, my Daily Standard article). This tape obviously continues to harp on that theme.

One hallmark of bin Laden's attempts to appeal to appeasement-minded Westerners has been a populist message that draws a deep divide between the common people and the bloodthirsty warmongers who are allegedly making massive profits off the U.S.'s wars. The latest audiotape not only speaks of this explicitly, but also supports the argument with a reference to the latest opinion polls on Iraq:

In respect of his comment on the opinion polls in America, which alluded to the fact that the overwhelming majority amongst you are in favor of withdrawing the troops from Iraq. However, he [President Bush] objected to this wish and said that the withdrawal of troops would send the wrong message to the enemies . . . and that it would be better to fight them in their own lands, rather than to have them fight us on our own lands. . . . I say: the result of the survey does satisfy the wise people; and the objection of Bush to them is wrong.

New Bin Laden Audio Tape Warns of Coming Attack Against U.S. (updated 1/20 with full transcript link)

By Andrew Cochran

Al Jazeera has aired a new tape, from Osama bin Laden, which warns of a future attack against the U.S. and apparently offering a "truce," with a U.S. pullout from the region, to avoid the attack. The CIA has confirmed that the tape is authentic and bin Laden is the speaker. You can listen to the English translation of the audio tape at the CBS News homepage, and you can read the transcript of the entire tape in English from the AP. Translated excerpt from CBS News: "We do not mind offering you a truce that is fair and long-term. ... So we can build Iraq and Afghanistan ... there is no shame in this solution because it prevents wasting of billions of dollars ... to merchants of war." Bin Laden also says that the reason for the lack of attacks in the U.S. has nothing to do with our heightened security, but because (quoting Fox News) "preparations are necessary," and then bin Laden warns "You will see them soon." This is the first broadcast of any kind from bin Laden since December 2004. Al Jazeera reports that the tape was made in December, while CNN's Octavia Nasr reports that it could have been late November to early December. Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC: OBL reasserting himself as leader, and new al-Zawahri audio tape might also be released very soon. These tapes are usually recorded a week or more before release. See his post yesterday on the importance of Abu Khabab, killed in the U.S. strike.

See Evan Kohlmann's January 17 post rebutting recent reports of his death, and Daveed Gartenstein-Ross's September 14 post on Al Qaeda's pursuit of appeasement. More as this develops, and our Contributing Experts will weigh in with analysis.

Purchase of North Korean Missiles Extends Iran's Force Projection Capability

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

A little-noticed story from late 2005 could prove quite significant as conflict with Iran draws closer. On December 16, the German newspaper Bild reported on the German secret services' claim that Iran had bought 18 disassembled BM-25 missiles from North Korea.

The BM-25 missile is based on the Soviet SS-N-6 (R-27) submarine-launched ballistic missile. Although Bild said that the missiles Iran purchased have a range of 2,500 kilometers, Jane's Defense Weekly reported that North Korea, with the help of Russian specialists, has developed two new versions of the R-27 with extended ranges. Analysts believe that the land-based version has a range of 2,500 to 4,000 kilometers. Consistent with this report, Bild reported that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wanted to have the missiles' range "extended to 3,500 kilometers." The German secret service report warned that "with a longer range, and the probability that (Tehran) would try to equip the missiles with nuclear warheads, there is the risk that Iran could strike at Israel and parts of central Europe."

Reader Timothy Thompson, who is always able to provide keen insight into weapons systems, comments on the missile purchase:

[The BM-25 missiles that Iran purchased] can easily be launched from [a] freighter modified with launch tubes and blast channels. They give Iran a projection of force capability far beyond the 2000-3000 km range of the missiles. It is possible -- though not confirmed -- that Iran may not use the BM-25's but only bought them to get the R-27 rocket motors for a missile of their own design.

The countries most concerned about these developments are Israel and Turkey. Israel's concern is obvious: Anytime a country whose president has vowed to wipe you off the map improves its ability to strike, that is a worrisome development. Turkey's concern stems from three major factors. First, it shares a large border with Iran. Second, Iranian missiles can reach vital Turkish military and industrial targets. Third, the NATO treaty obligates Turkey to treat any attack on another NATO country as an attack on its own territory. In the event this were to occur, we may see the use of Turkish ground forces.

Iran's ability to strike at longer range makes military options against that country increasingly perilous.

Abu Khabab al-Masri: A Master of Terror

By Evan Kohlmann

According to a growing number of media reports, a recent U.S. airstrike on a Pakistani border village has likely killed a senior Egyptian Al-Qaida commander named Midhat Mursi (a.k.a. Abu Khabab al-Masri).  Since the late 1980s, Abu Khabab has served as a top military aide and deputy to Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.  Mursi was responsible for co-managing Al-Qaida's notorious Derunta military training complex near Jalalabad, where he maintained his own elite terrorist graduate school aptly named the "Abu Khabab Camp." 

In November 1995, Abu Khabab organized his first major terrorist plot in response to an international crackdown on the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, dispatching two suicide bombers from the Derunta training camp to target the Egyptian Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan.  The twin car bombs killed 17 people and wounded 59 others.  In later memoirs regarding Abu Khabab's 1995 operation, Ayman al-Zawahiri explained, "The basic objective was to attack the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, but if that proved difficult to do, then to strike at any other U.S. target in Pakistan.  However, following intensive and detailed surveillance, we discovered that bombing the U.S. Embassy was beyond our capability."

Following his success in Islamabad, Abu Khabab teamed up with other veteran Al-Qaida commanders (including Abu Musab al-Suri, who was recently captured in Pakistan) to train a new generation of terrorist sleeper cells destined for targets in the Western world.  One of these fresh recruits was Algerian Ahmed Ressam, who was later detained when he attempted to cross into the United States from Canada with a trunkload of explosives.  Ressam told investigators that, while in Afghanistan, he was selected by Al-Qaida commanders for advanced technical training.  In October 1998, Ressam traveled to Abu Khabab's Derunta camp in order to learn more about electronics, chemicals, and how to build explosives.  Ressam admitted to attending training courses at Derunta in crude chemical warfare (including cyanide experiments on dogs) and further claimed that the camp featured instruction on the specific use of poisons to assassinate prominent political leaders and intelligence agents.  Ressam reported that his fellow Al-Qaida recruits enrolled at Derunta included French nationals, Italians, Germans, Swedes, and Britons of Jamaican origin.

In the chaotic aftermath of September 11, Abu Khabab al-Masri abandoned his former camp at Derunta and disappeared into the mountains--only to suddenly resurface in December 2003, when the U.S. government reportedly received a tip from a credible Al-Qaida informant that Abu Khabab "was active again."  According to New York Post, the information was considered so disturbing that the White House ordered the Department of Energy to dispatch radiological detection teams to New York and four other cities to monitor subsequent New Year's Eve celebrations.  Additionally, the U.S. government announced a $5 million reward for information on Abu Khabab.

Following the departures of Khalid Shaykh Mohammed, Abu Faraj al-Liby, and most recently Abu Hamza Rabia--and given his close, longstanding ties to Ayman al-Zawahiri--Abu Khabab al-Masri was considered a prime contender to take charge of orchestrating Al-Qaida's international terrorist operations.  If reports of his death are accurate, Al-Qaida has no doubt suffered a significant blow to its top leadership and has lost the resources of a truly innovative and highly skilled terror mastermind.

Top Al-Qaeda Bombmaker & Other Senior Al Qaeda Reported Killed in Pakistan Strikes (updated with photos)

By Andrew Cochran

ABC News broke the story this afternoon that al Qaeda's master bomb maker and chemical weapons expert, Midhat Mursi, a.k.a. Midhat Mursi al-Sayyid Umar, a.k.a. Abu Khabab al-Masri, a.k.a. Abu Khabab, was killed in last week's U.S. missile attack in Pakistan. A friend in the media with excellent official sources, as well as CNN's David Ensor, report that US government officials can't confirm the killing but won't dissuade the reports either. If true, this is almost as good as killing al-Zawahri; we had a $5 million reward out for Abu Khabab for his long success in training hundreds of terrorists in Afghanistan (including Richard Reid and Zacharias Moussaoui) and for his planning for chemical WMD attacks. An excellent post last September by Dan Darling on Bill Roggio's "Fourth Rail" site provides details of Abu Khabab's activities, based on Michael Scheuer's book. Bill's new post on the terrorist's reported death includes more good information, and you can see Abu Khabab's bio on the FBI's "Rewards for Justice" site, where the reward information is posted. Khalid Habib, the al Qaeda operations chief for Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Abdul Rehman al Magrabi, a senior operations commander for al Qaeda, also killed in the attack. Here's the video of the ABC News report. Evan Kohlmann sent me photos below of Abu Khabab's former camp in Afghanistan, from the GlobalSecurity.org site, and the Abu Khabab photo is from the "Rewards" site:

Syrian Military Intel Director Tagged for Syria's Support of Terrorism in Lebanon

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury Department is announcing the designation of Assef Shawkat, Director of Syrian Military Intelligence, as a Specially Designated National of Syria for "directly furthering the Government of Syria's support for terrorism and interference in the sovereignty of Lebanon" (quoting a departmental statement). Under the designation, any of Shawkat's assets held under U.S. jurisdiction are frozen, and U.S. persons are prohibited from any business dealings with him. More importantly, the designation announces to the world that the United States officially considers Shawkat and the SMI as fomenters of Islamic terrorism in Lebanon, and it fingers a senior official and close confidant of President Assad. Shawkat's importance to the Assad regime is noted in the press release: "In addition to the power he derives from his position, Shawkat also has access to the highest levels of the Syrian power structure by virtue of his marriage to Bushra al-Asad, the sister to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Shawkat is a close confidant of President Assad and an important member of his inner circle of advisors."

With respect to Shawkat's actions, the press release says that, "in 2005, Shawkat met with Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, PFLP-GC chief Ahmad Jibril, PIJ Secretary General Ramadan Shallah, in addition to Hamas and PIJ officials. Shallah, Jibril and Nasrallah are designated Specially Designated Terrorists pursuant to Executive Order 12947. Shawkat and the officials discussed coordination and cooperation between the terrorist groups. Shawkat and Jibril hoped to ease the freedom of movement for Palestinian terrorist groups, including PFLP-GC in Lebanon, so that the groups could move between Lebanon and Syria, as well as receive weapons and ammunition more easily."

Two close associates at SMI who ran Syrian military intel operations in Lebanon, Ghazi Kanaan and Rustum Ghazali, were designated last June 30. You can read Executive Order 13338, which authorizes designations of Syrian individuals and entities, here.

Steven Emerson: Pakistan Strike Was Opportunity That Could Not Be Missed

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson appeared on NBC's "Today" Show this morning to discuss the attempt to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri. Here is the transcript of the interview, and you see the video here:

Matt Lauer: NBC News analyst Steve Emerson is a terrorism expert. Steve, good morning to you.

Steve Emerson: Good morning, Matt.

Matt Lauer: We don�t know for sure, yet, but it appears it�s possible that we swung for the fences with Zawahiri and missed. If that�s the case, did the CIA get unlucky or did they rely on faulty intelligence?

Steve Emerson: We don�t really know that as well. It is possible that Mr. Zawahiri sent out bad information in order to test the U.S. or in fact he basically decided not to go at the last moment. Remember, though, Matt, at the last 9-11 Commission report there were three decisions not to take out Osama bin Laden when he was in the gun sight of the predator missile and that decision was criticized because of the fear of collateral damage.

Matt Lauer: So you are saying that may have influenced the decision this time?

Steve Emerson: Right. The opportunity to take out the number two to Osama bin Laden was a decision they decided could not be missed even though the possibility certainly existed that there would be civilians killed in the strike.

Debunking the "Death" of Usama Bin Laden

By Evan Kohlmann

Various terrorism analysts and political commentators have recently made a series of outlandish claims in international media outlets concerning the would-be "death" of Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden.  On January 9, Michael Ledeen announced to the world, "according to Iranians I trust, Osama bin Laden finally departed this world in mid-December.  The al Qaeda leader died of kidney failure and was buried in Iran, where he had spent most of his time since the destruction of al Qaeda in Afghanistan."  Similarly, on January 16, Dr. Clive Williams told the Sydney Morning Herald that he had been shown evidence proving that Bin Laden had suffered from "major organ failure" and passed away in Pakistan last April: "It does seem reasonably convincing based on the evidence that I've been provided with that he's certainly either severely incapacitated or dead at this stage."

What is somewhat amusing about these two erroneous claims is that they are apparently both based upon the same faulty premise--that Usama Bin Laden suffers from a serious kidney or liver ailment.  This is not say that Bin Laden is in perfect shape--indeed, he has his own share of long-term medical problems.  However, there is virtually no evidence to suggest that his ongoing condition has been critical enough to fundamentally disrupt or incapacitate him from participating in the planning of military operations, nor the coordination of terrorist financing.  The former Al-Qaida publishing house in London known as Azzam Publications has produced a fascinating book known as "The Lofty Mountain", featuring firsthand accounts of the early struggles of Usama Bin Laden in Afghanistan during the 1980s.  One chapter, titled "Impressions of an Arab Journalist in Afghanistan", contains the following revealing excerpt:

"Usama Bin Laden (Abu Abdullah)... used to suffer from very low blood pressure which would sometimes render him unable to move and he would thus remain lying on the floor for many hours on end.  He also needed to be given intravenous (I.V.) infusions, such as glucose... Abu Abdullah was in a lot of pain and extremely fatigued, and was lying on the floor.  This was after he had exerted his efforts to follow through the establishment of new locations for the Arab brothers, on top of buying weapons and establishing plans for surveillance and attack."

In short, Usama Bin Laden may not be entirely comfortable hiding in his remote mountain lair along the Afghan-Pakistani border, but it would be a rash mistake to count him out just yet.  Only three months ago during a videotaped interview, Bin Laden's top deputy Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri smugly proclaimed, "With the grace of Allah, Al-Qaida Al-Jihad remains a base for jihad.  And due to the grace of Allah and no one else, its commander, Shaykh Usama Bin Laden, may Allah protect him, still leads the jihad."  On this last point, it may be well worth taking Zawahiri at his word.

An addendum for researchers: according to "The Lofty Mountain", an unnamed "Egyptian doctor [from Peshawar, Pakistan] known for efficiency and piety" was responsible for overseeing Usama's "medical state" and giving him intravenous injections during the formation of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan.  Presumably, the mysterious "Egyptian doctor" at Bin Laden's side was none other than Ayman al-Zawahiri.

al Qaida aim at a "reverse no fly zones" in Iraq?

By Walid Phares

Walid Phares

The several attacks against US helicopters in Iraq in January 2006 show a new trend to establish a deterrence against air power in the Jihadi areas of operations. In my last interview with MSNBC's Chris Jensing Monday, I argued that targeting US helicopters is a new strategy by al Qaida in Iraq to wage war against air power. The Jihadists know, that with scheduled US gradual withdrawal, Iraqi forces will be supported by American air power. Hence they want to weaken that future support. I've baptized it "reverse no-fly-zones." al Qaida and other "insurgents" (or terrorists)  want to create areas of ground control that no US helicopters could cover. In my estimate and observation, the terror-planners within Iraq, and in the region, have been spending time to acquire this technique and train for it. The guidelines for the tactical implementation is drawn from Mujahid techniques against Soviet helicopters in Afghanistan and Hezbollah's videos on similar attacks against helicopters in south Lebanon. The long term idea is to suppress air power support to Iraqi forces and create "holes" within the Sunni triangle. In those holes, al Qaida and its allies will be able to strike and withdraw with a minimal fear of helicopter pursuits. The means to apply this strategy are basic: RPG (anti tank rockets) and equivalent, very available in Iraq. And when possible, real anti-aircraft shoulder-manned missiles, also available from regional powers. MSNBC

In another analysis, I argued that one main reason why US forces had fewer casualties (mostly wounded soldiers) in Iraq in 2005 is mainly because more Iraqi forces have been deployed, and al Qaida decided to go after them.

Douglas Farah in "New Republic" on Viktor Bout's operations

By Andrew Cochran

Douglas Farah has an article, co-authored with Kathi Austin, in the January 23, 2006 issue of the New Republic magazine, titled, "Air America: Viktor Bout and the Pentagon." Bout and 30 companies and four individuals in his international arms-trafficking network were designated by the Treasury Department on April 26, 2005 (with a link to a diagram of the Bout network), thus freezing their assets in the U.S. But the Pentagon continues to contract with the Bout network, as Doug has repeatedly written about here and in the press. Here are excerpts from the new article - you can download the entire piece here from Doug's site (Acrobat file):

The punitive actions were based on Bout�s relationship with Taylor, but, in announcing the OFAC action, the Treasury Department stressed another facet of Bout�s activities, noting that he made $50 million in profits from arms transfers to the Taliban when the regime was hosting Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The Treasury statement also said Bout had used his aircraft to �transport tanks, helicopters, and weapons by the tons� all over the world and helped �fuel conflicts and support U.N.-sanctioned regimes in Afghanistan, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Sudan.�

Yet, remarkably, given this record and the international efforts to shut him down, Bout also counts among his clients the U.S. military and its contractors in Iraq, NATO forces in Afghanistan, and the United Nations in Sudan. The New Republic has learned that the Defense Department has largely turned a blind eye to Bout�s activities and has continued to supply him with contracts, in violation of the executive order and despite the fact that other, more legitimate air carriers are available. Revenues from these flights enable Bout to carry on the profitable business of nurturing conflicts in other, less covered parts of the world, threatening further international instability.

Iran Showdown Draws Closer

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

After a two-year moratorium on its nuclear program, Iran defied the U.S. and European powers last week by resuming nuclear research. Iran decided to remove UN seals at a nuclear plant in Natanz, which would enable it to resume research into uranium enrichment. Now the U.S., UN Security Council members, the IAEA and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are all readying for a showdown over Iran's nuclear program.

Yesterday, Republican and Democratic senators said that the U.S. may have to undertake a military strike to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but that military force should only be used as a last resort. Senators John McCain (R.-Ariz.) and Evan Bayh (D.-Indiana) both said this, with Bayh stating that there are sensitive elements of Iran's nuclear program that, if attacked, "would dramatically delay its development." Regime Change Iran reports that congressional sources have said "that this joint appearance was carefully prepared by both political parties as a show [of] unity on . . . Iran."

Members of the UN Security Council also met on Monday to decide on a course of action. Moscow and Beijing previously blocked Western efforts to bring Iran before the Security Council, but Russian president Vladimir Putin appears close to changing his mind: "As for Russia and our European partners and the United States -- we have very close positions on the Iranian problem." But even if Russia changes its mind, China could still block UN sanctions.

Even IAEA head Mohammed ElBaradei has explicitly put the use of force on the table: "We are coming to the litmus test in the next few weeks. Diplomacy has to be backed by pressure and, in extreme cases, by force. We have rules. We have to do everything possible to uphold the rules through conviction. If not, then you impose them. Of course, this has to be a last resort, but sometimes you have to do it." ElBaradei has said that Iran has seven weeks to answer the IAEA's outstanding questions, including questions about secret work on nuclear warheads. If Iran doesn't comply by March 6, ElBaradei threatened to declare that the IAEA's inspection has reached a dead end.

Iran is also preparing for the coming conflict. Ahmadinejad launched into an angry tirade against the West on Saturday. He said that Iran would press forward with its nuclear program despite the West's efforts, and made a threat: "You need us more than we need you. All of you today need the Iranian nation. Why are you putting on airs? You don't have that might." Ahmadinejad seems to be referring to possible use of the Iranian oil weapon, given that it is the world's fourth largest oil producer.

I don't expect Iran or the U.S. to back down.

Victor Comras Interviewed in BBC's "Dirty Money" Series

By Andrew Cochran

Victor Comras is one of the experts interviewed in "Terrorism" segment of the BBC's three-part "Dirty Money" audio series, anchored by Michael Buchanan. The "Terrorism" segment is described as follows: "How do terrorists move their funds around the world to finance atrocities like 9/11? And what can the authorities do to stop them? Michael Buchanan investigates the abuse of charities, money transfers and the international banking system by those intent on bringing carnage to our streets. He reaches some disturbing conclusions."

You can listen to the "Terrorism" segment and the other segments, "Russia and the U.S." and "Nigeria" from the series home page here.

Massive Immigration Benefit Fraud a Threat to National Security

By Bill West

On January 13, the US Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issued a press release announcing the takedown of a large-scale immigration benefit fraud scheme in the Newark, New Jersey area. The ICE announcement noted the arrest of an Indian citizen suspect named Narendra Mandalapa who was charged with the Federal violation of Fraud and Misuse of Visas, 18 United States Code, Section 1546.

The investigation, conducted jointly between ICE and the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS), the immigration benefits agency within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is reported to have found nearly 1000 suspected fraudulent labor-based immigration visa petitions filed on behalf of Indian and Pakistani aliens seeking entry into the United States. The ICE announcement states the investigation is continuing to determine how many such aliens may actually have made entry into the US.

Walid Phares: Allies or Not Allies is the Question (edited)

By Andrew Cochran

Walid Phares asked me to post the following for him (quote him directly) - EDIT: I added links to Intelligence Summit clips of his weekend TV appearances:

The Predator's strike inside Pakistan's border area, aiming at al-Zawahri's possible stay in a village may have (or not) missed its target. But the missile attack triggered a series of political explosions in the region. In short, the issues are out. I addressed them in a series of interviews over the weekend: Here is a summary:

1. The Pakistani official position
The Government's immediate reaction was "to condemn the strike," to the surprise of many Americans and still the dislike of the Jihadists. Why did Islamabad "lodge a complaint" with the US embassy in Pakistan? In an interview with MSNBC I argued that "Had the US strike been successful, Pakistan would have taken credit. But since, (till proven otherwise) the strike wasn't, Pakistan's politics comes first: It is a fact that areas close to the border with Afghanistan are dominated by pro-Taliban forces. It is another fact that Pakistan's Salafist parties have a significant influence in the country.

2. Is al-Zawahri dead or not?
Strangely, it was an Arab network, al Arabiya, which informed the world, that according to its "sources," the number two of al Qaida wasn't killed and is still "around" - an interesting indicator of the vast resources of many Arab TV networks in establishing contacts with sources able to inform them about the "state" of al Qaida.

Norway Drops Implementation of EU Terrorist List

By Victor Comras

Norway issued a startling declaration earlier this month. Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Store announced January 4th that his country would no longer follow the EU lead concerning the designation of terrorist organizations not included in the UN designated terrorist list. A Copy of the Foreign Ministry Statement is here. Norway had previously aligned itself with the EU�s list of persons, organisations and entities set out in the Common Position on the application of specific measures to combat terrorism. The decision to now deviate from the EU means that organizations such as al aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Hamas, and some 45 other designated terrorist organizations around the world may no longer be subjected in Norway to the same restrictions other EU countries have placed on them. This includes freezing their assets and financial dealings. The full implication of this move is not yet clear. Norway has sought to allay concerns by stating that "the international legal obligations that form the basis for Norway�s efforts to combat international terrorism will remain the same." Nevertheless, this step could put Norway seriously out of step with its NATO allies and the rest of Europe regarding the war on terrorism and combating terrorism financing.

The reason given by Norway for taking this action is that �continued alignment with the EU list could cause difficulties for Norway in its role as neutral facilitator in certain peace processes. Norway�s role could become difficult if one of the parties involved was included on the EU list, and the opportunities for contact were thus restricted.� Store told the press that �the role Norway can play in various peace processes means we act in accordance with the UN list, and so we cannot be linked to other lists. We will continue to have a close cooperation with the EU on terror, but we are not a member of the EU and have not had a part in composing their lists."

Norway�s decision followed the recent addition of the Communist Party of the Philippines, The New People�s Army, and CPP leader Jose Ma Sison. Norway hopes to play a role in finding common ground to end the decades old conflict involving these organizations. But, Norway has also played a traditional behind the scenes role regarding various Palestinian groups and has long been reticent to apply sanctions measures against such groups as Hamas. In a related incident, Norway recently sent Israel a formal letter reassuring Israel, following statements made by Norway's Finance Minister that called for Norway to boycott Israel.

The EU maintains two distinct list of Terrorist organizations. The first replicates the UN�s Consolidated List of al Qaeda and Taliban individuals and entities pursuant to UN Security Council Resolutions 1390 (2001) and successor resolutions. The second is based on the EU Common Position adopted in December 2001 in connection with implementing UN Security Council resolution 1373, which specifically calls for measures to combat the financing of terrorism and includes a number of other identified international terrorist groups not necessarily associated with al Qaeda or the Taliban. This list includes some 45 individuals and some 47 organizations. They include a number of European, Palestinian and other Middle East, Latin American, Pacific and Asian groups that have engaged in terrorist activities. The full list is available here.

Saudis' Lack of Followthrough Drawing More Fire (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

An excellent story in today's "LA Times," reprinted elsewhere without registration, adds fuel to the gathering sentiment among Washington policymakers in the Executive Branch and on Capitol Hill that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia won't keep its past promises to stop the funding of terrorism and anti-Western propaganda outside the country. The first sentence says it all: "Although Saudi Arabia has cracked down on militants within its borders, the kingdom has not met its promises to help prevent the spread of terrorism or curb the flow of money from Saudis to terrorist cells around the world, U.S. intelligence, diplomatic and other officials say."

This issue is a continuing focus of our efforts here, and none of us think the Saudis have done enough. Steven Emerson and other witnesses provided details of the KSA's lack of followthrough during the November 8, 2005 hearing by the Senate Judiciary Committee. During that hearing, Senators of both parties, including those on opposite sides of virtually every domestic political issue, forcefully criticized the KSA and promised legislative action unless it kept its past promises. (UPDATE: You can read the transcript of the hearing - first panel with Treasury Department testifying, and second panel with Steve and others testifying.) Olivier Guitta recently posted about a column in the Arab press criticizing the KSA. Doug Farah has posted often about the Saudis' lack of progress, most recently here. I've posted about the 4-year delay in the Saudis' establishing a financial intelligence unit to track terrorist financing and assist our intel community. The unit supposedly opened only this past September with a surprising lack of notice by the KSA, but the LAT article notes the Saudis still haven't imposed oversight of its charities' activities overseas.

The article also makes the point that Saudis are still streaming into Iraq: "U.S. military officials confirm an aggressive role by Saudi fighters in the insurgency in Iraq, where over the past year they reportedly accounted for more than half of all Arab jihadists killed." This has been the focus of many of Evan Kohlmann's posts in the past year (here and here), in the face of information put forth by Anthony Cordesman and other Saudi proxies.

We will not stop the spread of Islamist radicalism unless the Saudis' prevent the spread of radical Islamism from within the country and unless we hold the Saudis accountable for their unkept promises.

CENTCOM, Afghanistan and Drugs

By Robert Charles

CENTCOM, Drugs and Afghanistan in 2006

Time to re-read the tea leaves in Afghanistan. CENTCOM and NATO's Operational Commander have just declared narcotics to be �the number one threat� to Afghanistan�s democracy and freedom. If not prescient, CENTCOM is on the mark. While little noticied, that simple pronouncement is path-breaking. No one on the ground dared to make such an assessment two years ago, even six months ago. But reality often intrudes on wishful tinking, and so it has here.

In 2006, Afghan narcotics traffickers are doing what you would expect. In a nation that is poor, illiterate, under-trained, predominantly road-less, has a poppy-favorable climate, no criminal justice system to speak of, and boasts a history of warlords and terrorist domination, they are planting, processing, trafficking, buying public officials, killing where necessary, financing what they like, settling in.

To be clear, Afghanistan is a beautiful nation. In fact, the raw majesty of Her mountains takes your breath away. The toughness of Her people, climate, oscillating temperatures, history and culture give one pause when thinking about Her future. She has made enormous strides toward a new and democratic way of life, but the way ahead is truly road-less. Mountains of work lie on the horizon, and are anything but inviting.

Nevertheless, CENTCOM and NATO have spoken. Now watch the debate in Congress and the Administration. To follow that thread where it leads, there must now be new energy, priorities, timetables and resources. Oddly, in Iraq, we are getting the edge, regaining a degree of ballast. Iraqi familiarity, even if a distant memory, with education, discipline, order, law, peace and prosperity is predictably lifting this long lumbering enterprise off the ground. It has all hallmarks, largely under-reported, of becoming permanently airborne. Iraq's past reaffirms Iraq�s conviction to win, to make a new way, and to make it stick. Gaps exist, but they are not getting wider. Objectively, there is lift.

Afghanistan is different. The whole strategy for success must quickly evolve. The narcotics monster is still holding the Afghan People�s wings in its ugly jaw. The only way to free them, really and finally, is to tackle that monster, making no more excuses. Yes, this will mean more money and public discussion, more infrastructure, and a more frontal assault on poppies, processors, traffickers, corrupt public officials, and drug funded terrorists.

Jihadis are indeed targeting French planes

By Olivier Guitta

Back in October, the French press leaked that Islamists had acquired missiles to shoot down planes at French airports. This information was just confirmed. It is included in the file prepared by anti terror French judges regarding the Chechen terror networks. In fact, according to Jordanian/ Palestinian Islamist Abu Atiya (a close associate of Abu Musab Al Zarqawi) arrested in 2003, a terrorist group headed by Algerian Islamist Taqi Al Din purchased in mid 2000 two Russian SAM 18 Igla missiles from Chechen rebel Ruslan Gulaiev. Al Din told Abu Atiya that he wanted to use the missiles to down civilian planes in France with the help of two Algerians holders of European passports. Al Din was able to smuggle the missiles to Turkey but from that point on authorities were not able to trace them. So far, the missiles have not been recovered.
Finally, Abu Itya acknowledged that he convinced Al Din to target the US rather than France. But at this point, Al Din did not confirm.

CIA Targets Ayman al-Zawahiri in Pakistan - Pakistan Says He Was Not at Site & Protests Attack (updated 1/14)

By Andrew Cochran

LAST UPDATE AT 10:00 am ET January 14. CIA airstrike against Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri in Pakistan - CIA got "good reporting" on al-Zawahiri's presence in a building and it ordered the Predator airstrike. But AP reports on Saturday morning that "Pakistan's assessment was the al-Qaida suspect was not at the site and the CIA had launched the attack based on incorrect information." And Pakistan filed a formal protest over the airstrike on its territory with the U.S. Embassy

ABC News: "Villagers described seeing an unmanned plane circling the area for the last few days and then bombs falling in the early morning darkness. Eighteen people were killed, according to the villagers who said women and children were among the fatalities. But Pakistani officials tell ABC News that five of those killed were high-level al Qaeda figures, and their bodies are now undergoing forensic tests for positive identification." MSNBC: "CIA-operated unmanned drones were believed to have been used in the attack on Damadola village, across the border from Kunar province in eastern Afghanistan, the U.S. sources said." This effort has developed over the past few days as intel has indicated his presence in Damadola, a small village near the Afghan border.

Contributing Experts will appear throughout the weekend on TV interviews to discuss this matter - see Walid Phares' website for a schedule of his appearance. Here is the FBI's Most Wanted poster of al-Zawahiri with the $25 million reward. MSNBC has a bio of al-Zawahiri, and here is a Reuters profile of him as "brain" of Al Qaeda's "body." The letter from al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, dated July 9, 2005, is available here. Pakistan's "Daily News" site reports on the attack. Here are pictures of attack site from "Daily Times" website and AP through CNN:

Arrests & Seizures by Lebanon: Sign of Terrorists' Turf War?

By Andrew Cochran

We could see a turf war, and not cooperation, developing between Islamic terrorist groups in and around Gaza and southern Lebanon. Lebanese security forces arrested suspected 13 Al Qaeda operatives two weeks ago, and only 3 were Lebanese - 3 were Saudis, 7 were Syrians, one was a Jordanian, and another was a Palestinian. Additinally, the Lebanese army recently stopped a ship filled with weapons. With respect to the latter, Israeli officials speculate that the ship was "funded by Iran or Syria and that the weapons were meant to reach either the Hamas or the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip." Western intel sources recently told me of a budding rivalry between Hezbollah and Al Qaeda over the latter's missile attacks on Israel on December 27, with the Lebanese as the former's proxy. This is confirmed in an interview in today's "Christian Science Monitor" with Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hizbullah's deputy secretary-general. "It's important to caution everyone not to make Lebanon an arena for settling scores. It will be a dangerous development if that happens..."I have read articles saying that attacks can only happen [in the border district] with Hizbullah's knowledge. This is not true."

With news of Al Qaeda's infiltration into Gaza, it's reasonable to expect that Hamas and Islamic Jihad might also move to a "turf protection" mode. The result might be some unusual actions and counteractions between the parties, with the arrests and seizures as events in a series.

Scoffing at Allegations of Ties to Saddam, Zarqawi's Al-Qaida Claims Link to Egyptian Islamic Jihad Elite

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in Mesopotamia--led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi--has issued a new edition in its "Distinguished Martyrs" series, on this occasion profiling an Egyptian and two Palestinians from Jordan who were killed together during a battle with U.S. military forces in Iraq.  The group included:

• Abu Khabab al-Falastini - A Palestinian from Jordan trained at Al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan during the 1980s.  Later, he was arrested by security forces in Azerbaijan as he attempted to cross over into Chechnya and join the Arab-Afghan mujahideen loyal to Ibn-ul-Khattab.  Upon his release by the Azeris, Abu Khabab headed back to Afghanistan and eventually on to Iraq in order to join in "the courageous battle."  According to Al-Qaida, Abu Khabab was the teacher of Abu Usama al-Maghribi, the Moroccan suicide bomber responsible for the second attack on the United Nations compound in Baghdad in September 2003.
• Abu Umar al-Masri - A 37-year old senior Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) leader trained in Yemen and Afghanistan who later joined a group of other elite EIJ operatives in Albania preparing for jihad in nearby Kosovo.  When other members of the infamous "Albanian Returnees" group were seized in a joint mission by Albanian security services and the CIA for targeting the U.S. embassy in Tirana, Abu Umar fled Albania for Italy, where he was imprisoned for several years as a suspected terrorist.  After a harrowing trip through Germany, Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria, Abu Umar eventually ended up in Iraq just prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein and joined Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

One of the more interesting elements of Al-Qaida's latest "martyr" biography is how the author, Abu Ismail al-Muhajir, portrays the state of Al-Qaida in Iraq in early 2003 and its supposed connections with the former regime of Saddam Hussein:

"As I have explained before, the brothers in Iraq decided to stay out of the war and not to fight alongside Saddam until the war was over and Saddam�s regime was eliminated.  They had many reasons for making this decision... Nonetheless, the situation took a turn for the worse after the regime�s collapse... we decided to stay and hide [in Iraq].  There was always the possibility that Allah would reward us with jihad.  We collected weapons from the various camps, and purchased some weapons as well.  We continued to stock up on supplies in preparation for the day when the Kalashnikovs would sing joyfully once again.  Thereafter, we met with the lion Shaykh Abu Musab [al-Zarqawi].  Slowly but surely, the jihad movement began to progress forward and succeeded in awakening the entire world with the great light of jihad and martyrdom in the name of Allah."

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

*UPDATE* (1/13 3:15pm EST): I've added another Iraq-jihad related item for download on Globalterroralert.com: a new video from Zarqawi's Al-Qaida faction of a recent suicide truck bomb attack in Baghdad that it has labeled "The Battle of Shaykh Omar Abdel Rahman."  Rahman--the spiritual leader of the Egyptian Al-Gama`at al-Islamiyya terrorist organization--is currently being held in a U.S. prison for his role in a 1993 conspiracy to launch a wave of attacks targeting New York landmarks, including the World Trade Center.

Iranian Military Plane Crash: Act of Sabotage?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Monday, an Iranian military plane crash killed eleven top commanders in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Gen. Ahmad Kazemi, the commander of IRGC's ground forces, died in the crash. The dead also included a number of other military notables whose names were released by the Islamic Republic News Agency, including the commander of Rassoulollah Army Division 27, the deputy commander of ground forces for operation affairs and the official in charge of information for ground forces.

While a spokesman for the IRGC has blamed bad weather and dilapidated engines for the crash, my sources are convinced that this was an act of sabotage. Stratfor has weighed in with its analysis of the crash, noting that while "[i]t is entirely possible that the plane crashed due to technical difficulties," there are reasons to suspect foul play:

Though maintenance negligence offers a plausible explanation for the crash, the death of several of Iran's senior IRGC commanders comes at a particularly interesting juncture in Iran's political history. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election was not fully endorsed by the entire Iranian political spectrum. His firebrand antics, though coming in pursuit of a strategy to raise the Islamic republic's profile in the Muslim world, have stirred up noticeable hintes of dissent within the ruling regime. One of Ahmadinejad's top security guards in the Ansar al-Mahdi Corps, a unit of the IRGC responsible for the personal security of senior Iranian officials, died Dec. 14 in an ambush on the presidential motorcade in Iran's lawless Sistan and Balochistan province.

Considering that the Falcon was carrying one of Iran's most elite IRGC commanders, and would thus undergo thorough tests for technical issues before flight, the crash could also indicate foul play aimed at undermining Ahmadinejad's power base and influence.

Stratfor also states that in the wake of the plane crash, "Ahmadinejad's power base has been severely threatened."

While the Iranian regime would never publicly admit that this was an act of sabotage, the situation bears watching. If sabotage occurred, observers believe that it was either a product of the "mullah wars," in which Iran's mullahs have been clashing with president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or else was orchestrated by members of the IRGC who are sympathetic with the opposition to the regime and stay in the IRGC to harm it from the inside. My sources believe that the former is more likely.

Amir Taheri has described the clash between Ahmadinejad and the mullahs. This clash is rooted in both Ahmadinejad's investigation of the Iranian political establishment's corruption and also an honesty about the goals of the Islamic revolution that conflicts with the dissimulation of other Iranian politicians. Even Ayatollah Khamenei, who helped to bring Ahmadinejad to power, may feel threatened by the new president as it is widely believed that Ahmadinejad would like to replace Khameini as supreme leader with his closest clerical ally, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

If the military plane crash is an act of sabotage, that shows how severe the fissures within Iran have become. Even while pursuing the UN Security Council as one option for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, the U.S. needs to carefully follow, and be willing to exploit, the power struggle within Iran.

Hat tip to Iran Press News for information. Visit Regime Change Iran for continuing coverage of the plane crash.

Highlights of First "U.S. Money Laundering Threat Assessment"

By Andrew Cochran

In what might be a positive sign about U.S. government counterterrorism efforts amidst the waning interest noted by Doug Farah, the first official "U.S. Money Laundering Threat Assessment" was released this morning at the Treasury Department. It's the first time that the 16 U.S. government bureaus, offices and agencies involved in the issue have combined to present their data and summary of programs, and it discusses (quoting the Treasury press release) "the characteristics of a specific method of money laundering, outlining the current legal and regulatory landscape and presenting known patterns of abuse, geographical concentrations, and real-world case studies." The MLTA is a valuable tool for use in benchmarking government efforts and trends in money laundering prevention. Although terrorist financing is not the subject of the assessment, money laundering techniques are employed by numerous terrorist groups and allies in criminal gangs, as testified to last year by Steven Emerson and former Contributing Expert and current senior Treasury official Matthew Levitt. You can download the entire MLTA from the Justice Department (large Acrobat file), and it will be linked in the Counterterrorism Library. Some highlights:

"FBI field offices consistently identified MSBs (money service businesses) as the third-most utilized money laundering method that they encounter, after formal banking systems and cash businesses, and particularly pointed to money remitters as a threat...Despite repeated outreach efforts to the sector, only a small fraction of the total MSBs � around 23,000 � have registered with the federal government...With respect to destinations, most federal law enforcement agencies identified Mexico as the primary destination for suspicious funds sent through MSBs."

A Waning Interest in Terror Finance and Other Issues

By Douglas Farah

It seems, from my recent converstations with some senior folks in government, that there is a growing sense of dismay--across party lines--at the waning interest in serously combatting terror finance, a coherent public diplomacy strategy, cohesive intelligence reform and many other vital issues.

My friends say there is no follow-up on terror finance issues and no comprehensive strategy because the NSC coordinating group on the issue is now a shadow of what it was when it was so actively led by David Aufhauser. Entrenched cultural and analytical habits have made thinking or acting in new ways difficult. What was once a serious attack mode on the issue now appears to be largely paper-shuffling and a holding pattern, and there is no one at the the top driving against the bureaucratic inertia.

Another common theme is that communication across departmental lines is reportedly at least as bad as it was before 9-11, which each agency clinging to scraps of information and engaging in bloody turf wars rather than facing a common enemy. You can read the full blog here.

The Thai Insurgency Two Years On

By Zachary Abuza

The Islamist insurgency in southern Thailand is now two years old. Despite, 190 arrests there is no end in sight. The technical capacity of bombers has improved and they continue to be able to attack at will. There is still an alarming paucity of intelligence about the insurgency. Below please find my talk to the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand about the current situation.

Bolivia Tottering ...

By Robert Charles

Bolivia is Tottering

What does the rise of Evo Morales as president of Bolivia mean for the average American? More than you might think. Less than you might be inclined to have nightmares about. Here are the core facts.

First, Morales is committed to legalizing coca growing, implicitly supporting cocaine and coca paste syndicates in rural Bolivia�s Chapare regions. If real, such a policy would accelerate coca growth all over the nation, upending longtime gains and US policy. Bolivia�s tottering economy would face the sort of self-inflicted wound not seen in decades. It would last years.

Coca legalization, if really pursued, would represent a major reversal of fortunes for a nation that dramatically reduced coca growth over the past five years, and saw rising incomes from legitimate crops, like pineapples, bananas, heart of palm, honey, cotton, corn and dairy products.

Criminal elements would prosper. Western investment would scatter. The gut-punch to international confidence would slow alternative development, suffocate bilateral and multilateral lending, and � in a phrase � invite cocaine and heroin poppy producers, traffickers and regional terrorists to ravage a little, long-suffering and luckless ally.

Is Morales�s rise the latest domino in a push by Cuba�s Fidel Castro and Venezuela�s Chavez for more anti-US, anti-capitalist, anti-democratic nations in South America? Maybe, since the Castro-Chavez-Morales troika froths with enthusiasm for converting disenchanted electorates across the region � into some 21st Century version of warmed Soviet-style socialism. Either way, this widening turn toward anti-Americanism is reason enough to spell wider attention by the Administration on this often forgotten region.

Dr. Ely Karmon: "Who Bombed Northern Israel?"

By Evan Kohlmann

My esteemed colleague Dr. Ely Karmon, Senior Research Scholar at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzlyia, has written a new paper this month on Al-Qaida's recent expansion of terrorist activities directly targeting the state of Israel.  I draw the attention of readers to one excerpt in particular:

"[Abu Musab al-] Zarqawi is drawing up a plan which would include the passage of Taliban supporters from Afghanistan through Iran to Iraq, the free movement of thousands of Zarqawi's people through the territory of a weakened Syrian regime and the opportunity to infiltrate into Lebanon.  The situation in Lebanon will not remain stable, as the Sunnis in Lebanon and Syria are supportive of al-Qaida's doctrine."

Even if Zarqawi's dreams of building a jihad highway to Palestine are a little farfetched, this will not prevent his fanatical followers from committing future atrocities and creating havoc throughout "Greater Syria."

Steven Emerson: Al Qaeda & the Taliban "Resurrect" Themselves

By Andrew Cochran

Appearing on Fox News Channel this morning, Steven Emerson discussed the comeback of Al Qaeda in the Middle East and the Taliban in Afghanistan, with the latter profiting from the Afghan drug trade (see Robert Charles' post related to that subject). Quotes: "Over the past year, there has been a quantum rise in the number of attacks, suicide bombings, and the introduction of the Taliban within Afghanistan as well as the introduction of Al Qaeda throughout the Middle East - not just in Iraq, by the way, but also as far away as Gaza and Lebanon. So we're seeing Al Qaeda resurrect itself throughout the Middle East now in the past year...I think that the terrorists are definitely profiting, but the actual words used by Karzai were that the terrorists were at gunpoint forcing the farmers to grow poppies. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy it. I think the farmers are growing it because there is a lot of money to be made and there is a tremendous market for it and the terrorists know exactly how to pay cold cash for it." Steve commented further on the Palestinian Authority's allowing the infiltration of terrorists into Gaza, and he predicted that an Al Qaeda chapter will launch attacks from Gaza on Israel this year. You can see a clip of his appearance here (Windows Media).

Saudi Arabia contributing to the expansion of terrorism

By Olivier Guitta

This according to Quinnan Al Ghamdi in a recent column in Al Watan. Here's a rundown of Al Ghamdi's points:

. He criticizes the use by some of the expression �Conquest of Manhattan� to describe the 9/11 attacks.
� He acknowledges that the fanatical ideology used by terrorists is still alive and kicking in Saudi society. It has infiltrated schools, universities, offices, administrations as much among women and men.
� We haven�t done anything to eradicate this sickness except arresting terrorists. All the speeches against the fanatical ideology have been vague general statements, which actually encourage extremism and give birth to new fanatics.
� Al Ghamdi cites also a study by Dr Yusuf bin Ahmed Al Otaimin entitled: �Towards a global domestic strategy of fighting terrorism in Arabia.�
� This study confirms that terrorism is a strictly domestic problem tackled with superficial, traditional, ineffective weapons. Terrorism is well entrenched in the culture, in State institutions and throughout society. The real risk is the infiltration of these sympathizers who live in our society, carry the terrorism virus in their veins and generate terrorists helping them logistically, financially and giving them in the end legitimacy.

Will Counterterrorism Experts Ignore New Evidence of Saddam's Terrorist Ties?

By Andrew Cochran

Stephen Hayes' "Weekly Standard" article on Saddam's terror training camps discloses a massive Iraqi intel stash pointing to a systematic program to train thousands of terrorists. Hayes reports that Saddam's regime "trained thousands of radical Islamic terrorists from the region at camps in Iraq over the four years immediately preceding the U.S. invasion." ALL of that evidence must be seriously examined, analyzed, and released to the public, and I hope House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Peter Hoekstra sticks to his guns and forces the Pentagon to release the stash, hopefully in public hearings.

Sadly, many outstanding experts in the counterterrorism community have already made up their minds that Saddam had no serious interaction with terrorists, and they blame the development of a broader jihadist network solely on the U.S. move to liberate Iraq from Saddam's death grip. Many experts, including our Evan Kohlmann, have used the term "engine" or "breeding ground" to describe post-invasion Iraq, implying that jihadists had never been trained in Iraq before we invaded. So many experts will be very reluctant to reconsider and concur that Saddam may have developed a "breeding ground" long before American forces set foot into the country. For instance, Peter Bergen, certainly one of the best and most respected experts in the world, said 18 months ago in a debate with Hayes that the evidence of a strong al-Qaida-Iraqi connection is "rather thin" and a strong connection would have been unearthed by now. You can tell from the silence of many experts that they simply don't want to hear about new evidence unearthed in the files that might prove them wrong. I expressed support here for Hayes' thesis of Saddam's links to al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. And almost a year ago, I posted the chart released by a congressional committee depicting Saddam's payments of $25,000 to Palestinian suicide bombers' families from Oil-for-Food kickbacks. Counterterrorism experts, starting with the 9/11 Commission members and staff, owe it to the profession and the public to face this evidence squarely and honestly and accept it if it points in the direction described by Hayes.

Indeed, counterterrorism experts with knowledge of terrorist groups and individuals, from inside and outside government, should be invited to review the evidence and assist in link and transaction analysis and should be eager for the opportunity. I have seen incredibly detailed charts, developed outside the U.S. government, of links between hundreds of individuals and groups. Evan's al-Zarqawi leaderhship chart is just one small-scale example of the private sector's capabilities. Many of the Contributing Experts on the CT Blog and elsewhere are capable of providing significant assistance to the Pentagon and Congress in identifying key individuals who might have been trained, funded, and logistically supported by Saddam.

Report Released on FBI's Handling of Brandon Mayfield Case & Fingerprint Errors

By Andrew Cochran

The Inspector General of the Justice Department has released a new report on the FBI's handling of the Brandon Mayfield case (you can download a large Acrobat file of the unclassified executive summary). Mayfield was the Oregon attorney arrested in May 2004 and identified as the source of a fingerprint found on a bag of detonators connected to the March 2004 Madrid train bombings. Mayfield was later released when the FBI admitted that the fingerprint on the bag was not Mayfield's. The primary causes of the error are summarized as follows: "The unusual similarity between LFP 17 (the fingerprint on the bag) and Mayfield's known fingerprint was a major factor in the misidentification that confused three experienced FBI examiners and a court-appointed expert. However, we concluded that the examiners committed errors in the examination procedure, and that the misidentification could have been prevented through a more rigorous application of several principles of latent fingerprint identification." The IG did not find any intentional misconduct by any FBI employee.

The IG also investigated for possible abuse of the USA Patriot Act by the FBI and concluded, "We did not find any evidence that the FBI misused any of the provisions of the Patriot Act in conducting its investigation of Mayfield." The FBI didn't even use several of the provisions of the Act for the purpose of investigating and arresting Mayfield. But the Act enabled the government to share information obtained through the search in ways not possible prior to the enactment of the Act, and that sharing "amplified the consequences" of the mistake. Rep. James Sensenbrenner, House Judiciary Committee Chairman, issued a statement today hailing the IG's conclusion. "Today's report should finally end the baseless accusation lodged by PATRIOT Act opponents that federal law enforcement officials used this anti-terrorism law to violate the civil liberties of Brandon Mayfield...Extensive congressional hearings, briefings, and document review have produced no substantiated evidence of abuse of the PATRIOT Act."

Mayfield's Muslim religion was not, according to the IG, a factor in the initiation of the investigation, but likely contributed in the examiners' failure to reconsider the fingerprint identification after legitimate questions had been raised.

The FBI has issued a press release in response to the IG report, noting the lack of abuse of the Patriot Act.

Our First Anniversary - Thanks to Contributing Experts & Readers - Some Perspectives

By Andrew Cochran

Yesterday was our first anniversary - you can read my opening post on January 5, 2005. This is the 1,121th article posted in the center column, and to date we have linked to over 7,100 news articles and columns in the "Today's News" box in the right sidebar. One site which measures blog popularity consistently ranks us in the top 200 of all blogs in the world. More importantly, I am told that we are "required reading" by leaders in the counterterrorism community, the news media, and policymakers in the U.S. and overseas, and that was my first goal when I envisioned and developed the site. I want to first thank the current and past Contributing Experts for their posts and advice. We also appreciate the invaluable assistance and support by Jeffrey Imm; Rachel Sullivan; the outstanding research staff at the Investigative Project on Terrorism; the leadership at the GAGE consulting firm; our interested and knowledgeable readers (especially those who send great ideas and links); and the many dedicated and professional reporters and analysts with whom we cooperate. We promise to continue to provide more top news, cogent analysis, and links to other good sites and important studies, and we might roll out some other products along the way. Some highlights, "firsts," and "bests" from our first year:

Damra Departs, Sooner Than Later It Would Appear?

By Bill West

The Government�s case against Fawaz Damra has been long and circuitous. Damra is/was the Imam of the reputed largest mosque in Ohio near Cleveland. He was also convicted in June 2004 of lying on his US naturalization documents about his association with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), other radical Islamists and his support for the persecution of Jews.

The Government�s criminal prosecution of Damra was, from a distant observation, a simple immigration case. In reality, the case involved significant and complex issues and evidence dating back nearly two decades with linkage to the first World Trade Center attack, an Islamic �refugee� center in Brooklyn that was a precursor to an al-Qaeda recruiting operation and direct connections to the accused PIJ cell operating in Tampa, Florida that is still facing potential prosecution after a hung jury in Federal court there.

Belgium, hotbed for Islamist terrorism

By Olivier Guitta

After the revelation of the suicide attack from the first Western female-a Belgian citizen- in Iraq on November 9, Belgium is emerging as a crucial country in Counter Terrorism terms. Here are some facts:

The recruiter of the Muslim convert woman suicide bomber whose name was Muriel Degauque and her companion Belgian-Moroccan Issam Goris- who got killed by US troops, is a Belgian converted to Islam 3 years ago named Pascal Cruypenninck. He is a jobless cook. Police found out he had also recruited an 18-year-old African woman who they just arrested.

According to French police sources who arrested a Tunisian allegedly linked to that suicide operation in Iraq and the Belgian cell, �more than a hundred people could have followed Muriel and her companion�s path.�

Mohamed Reha, Belgian of Moroccan origin arrested in Morocco in November, affirmed that there were several wives of Islamists prisoners in Belgium, ready to commit suicide attacks. Also Reha went to Holland to meet Samir Azzouz who just got acquitted for his alleged participation in the murder of Theo Van Gogh. Reha offered Azzouz women recruits for a suicide attack but Azzouz refused because he wanted men.

�Belgium is indeed very attractive for Muslim extremists groups�, estimates Luc Verheyden, director of the anti-terrorist taskforce. �Our country is crucial because of the presence of international institutions. Many media are represented here and the extremists groups need them to pass along some of their propaganda. And Belgium is more lenient to this type of propaganda than of other countries, where it is for example a crime to glorify terrorist acts. Contrary to other countries, Belgium does not have a list of banned groups. We can only freeze the assets of organizations which are on the UN list of terrorist groups but we cannot ban them altogether.�

More Africa Connections in the New World Mayhem

By Douglas Farah

More bits and pieces are emerging on terrorist operations in sub-Saharan Africa, making the point that those soft, failing or failed states are rich targets for people seeking to move weapons, as well as increasingly fertile ground for recruitment by al Qaeda and affiliated groups, as well as transnational criminal organizations. The porous borders, easily-accessible weapons and lack of law enforcement make much of the vast continent a natural marketplace for weapons, as descriped in this article from Kenya. In this case, the weapons came in from neighboring Somalia, where there is a strong al Qaeda network, into Kenya, which has already been the target of several al Qaeda attacks. As the story makes clear, finding these weapons was an act of luck. The arresting officer had to wait two days before hitching a ride on a UN vehicle to report the incident to his superiors. His unit had no vehicles and no radio.

Another small but disturbing news article in the Ghanaian press says that a 36-year-old Ghanaian, Mohammed Gazali, was arrested by Spanish police in Malaga, where Gazali was serving as the imam of a mosque there. This is a small but important indication of the pipeline that has developed from the salafist groups into the traditionally-tolerant Islam of West Africa.

A few important new studies, including an important one by the International Crisis Group last year, have tried to monitor the growing influence of the salafists in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly West Africa. All have found that the influence, through the building of mosques financed by Saudi Arabia and Islamic charities, is growing. To read more, go here.

Jewelry Dealers Now Covered by AML/CTF Requirements

By Victor Comras

I 'm not sure how many jewelry dealers read the Counter-Terrorism Blog, but I did want to join others in reminding you that as of January 1, 2006, you are required to have in place, and available for inspection, due diligence plans to assure that your auspices and merchandise are not being abused by others for the purpose of money laundering or terrorism financing. The Treasury Department (FinCen) issued new rules last June, pursuant to the Patriot Act requiring "dealers in precious metals, precious stones, jewels and covered goods" to implement an AML program. The section of the Patriot Act under which these rules were imposed is law and not subject to the renewal action now being debated in Congress. Jewelry dealers who buy and sell these products in an amount in excess of $50,000 in one year must comply by January 1, 2006. Failure to do so can result in severe legal sanctions. Yet, there apparently remains a good deal of confusion in the industry as to who is covered and who is not covered. And, only a small percentage of jewelry dealers have yet brought themselves into compliance with these new rules.

A starting point is to determine whether you are a dealer or retailer. You are a dealer, and are covered by the rules, if you both purchased at least $50,000 worth of covered goods and sold at least $50,000 worth of covered goods during the preceding year. Covered goods include �jewels, precious metals, precious stones, and finished goods (including, but not limited to, jewelry, numismatic items, and antiques) that derive 50% or more of their value from jewels, precious metals, or precious stones contained in or attached to such finished goods.� You are also covered by the rules if you are a retailer and purchased more than $50,000 of covered goods from non-U.S. dealers or members of the public and sold more than $50,000 of covered goods to persons who are deemed to be "dealers" Retailers who purchases their goods from US based dealers already covered by the rule and from other retailers are not required to establish anti-money laundering programs.

The program you design to comply with Treasury's interim final rule must be established in writing, must include the designation of a compliance officer responsible for administering your compliance program, and must demonstrate that you are effectively evaluating transactions to determine if they pose specific money laundering or terrorism financing threats. You must also assure that your employees are trained to be aware and to carry out their responsibilities under your established AML program. You must also carry out periodic tests to ensure that the program functions as designed. A number of organizations have put together packets of information that can be used to simplify the process of establishing a compliance system. FinCen has also published a FAQ paper useful in this regard. Good luck and let us know if we can be of further help.

Political Uncertainty in the Wake of Ariel Sharon's Stroke

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Wednesday, Ariel Sharon suffered his second stroke in less than a month.  Doctors expected a full recovery after the first stroke, but the prognosis is bleak after the second one.  Although there is still confusion in the Israeli press as of this writing, it's evident that Sharon is fighting for his life.  At the very least, it seems that his political career is over.

The New York Times reports that it will be near impossible to treat Sharon's stroke because of the blood thinners that he began to take in the wake of the first stroke:

Although Mr. Sharon was taken to surgery to try to remove the blood pouring into his skull, it was a desperate move, neurologists said. Hemorrhages in the brain while the patient is taking blood thinners "are usually devastating events," said Dr. Matthew E. Fink, chief of the Division of Stroke and Critical Care at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center.  "This sounds really terrible."  Statistically, the likelihood of death is greater than 80 percent, Dr. Fink said.

The political uncertainty created by this medical calamity cannot be overstated.  Sharon's powers have been transferred to Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the former mayor of Jerusalem.  Omri Ceren of the Mere Rhetoric blog, who's done an excellent job of following the Hebrew press in the wake of Sharon's stroke, reports that commentators in Israel are confident in Olmert's ability to win over the public with no real basis for the confidence:  "They aren't sure why they're confident, but it has something to do with the . . . er . . . unique way that Israelis approach their politicians."

There are three key uncertainties on the horizon at present.  The first is the uncertainty that this creates for Israeli politics.  Israeli elections were set for late March after Sharon's request to dissolve the Israeli government was granted.  Sharon's new party, Kadima, was expected to emerge victorious in the March elections.  However, CNN.com reports that "the party is so closely associated with Sharon that his health problems are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the campaign."

The second key uncertainty is the upcoming Palestinian elections, scheduled for Jan. 25.  Israel has been greatly concerned about Hamas's participation in the elections, and recently insisted that Palestinians residing in East Jerusalem couldn't vote in the election.  Sateh Noureddine, the managing editor of Lebanon's As-Safir newspaper, told the Associated Press that if Sharon dies, it "could lead to the postponement of the Palestinian elections and the Israeli elections and possibly could lead to a security deterioration."

A third critical uncertainty what will become of Sharon's plans for enhancing Israeli security.  Time describes Sharon's vision, which many Israeli politicians have embraced:

[I]n recent months, Sharon has managed to break the mold of Israeli politics and initiate a realignment based on politicians' abandoning traditional party loyalties and lining up behind the old general's vision.  His unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, the security wall he has built to secure Israel and the West Bank possessions it claims, and the expectation that a similar unilateral withdrawal would eventually occur in the West Bank as well are not part of any political party's standing program, nor of any treaty or "road map."  They reflect Sharon's own vision of a peace concluded without the participation of the Palestinians, based on his long-held premise that "there is no Palestinian partner," and that Israel's best interests are served by unilaterally -- and occasionally in consultation with the U.S. -- resolving the problem of the occupation on its own terms.  When his own Likud Party balked, he simply formed a new party, Kadima, supremely confident in his personal standing with the electorate.

All of this is now in doubt.  As Time states, Sharon's departure from the Israeli political scene leaves "an epic vacuum," one that will most certainly not be easy to fill.

Immigration and National Security - Looking Back and Looking Ahead

By Bill West

2006 will certainly see changes in American immigration policies. Notwithstanding Congressional diversions caused by NSA domestic surveillance and indicted lobbyists, it is quite likely some form of immigration reform bill will surface for debate in both the House and Senate, particularly with Congressional elections looming in the Fall.

How all this will play out relative to counter-terrorism will remain to be seen. National and Homeland security issues are clearly critical considerations in any revisions to the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) and how the country enforces and administers its immigration laws and policies.

Washington Lobbyist Leading Key Immigration Agency - Misplaced Focus Will Endanger Security

By Michael Cutler

It is now official: USCIS, the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, the branch of the Department of Homeland Security that is charged with adjudicating applications for a wide variety of immigration benefits has a new chief, Emilio T. Gonzalez. Like his predecessor he lacks immigration experience and has a background that includes his having been a managing director at a consulting firm, Tew Cardenas, LLP, which by its own description is a lobbying organization, as noted on its website states, in part:

"Our bilingual, bicultural law firm delivers unparalleled services to clients combined with the invaluable cultural knowledge needed to make effective and innovative connections between governments and businesses. Our international expertise helps clients, including foreign governments, navigate the political and policy corridors of Washington, DC. The Tew Cardenas Global and Government Affairs Practice also provides direct lobbying through personal contacts with key decision makers in the White House, Congress, and federal and regulatory agencies to either create opportunities or solve problems."

I am concerned that a former lobbyist with no immigration experience is now being put in charge of a highly significant component of the Department of Homeland Security. To the uninitiated, it may seem that a service-related agency that deals with immigration is not related to national security, but most assuredly, it is. The terrorists who killed 3,000 innocent victims on September 11, 2001 were all aliens who needed to embed themselves in the United States prior to that devastating attack. In order to do this they gamed the immigration system to be able to hide in plain sight.

Supreme Court Agrees to Transfer of Jose Padilla to Justice Department (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals and agreed to the Bush Administration's request to transfer custody of Jose Padilla from the Defense Department to the Justice Department for the purpose of standing trial in Miami. Padilla has been held by the Defense Department as an "enemy combatant" since his arrest in 2002, when he was accused of plotting to detonate a radioactive "dirty bomb" in the U.S. This is a major victory for the Bush Administration in the Padilla case.

Coming Soon: An Update from the Frontline in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

I'm pleased to announce that Bill Roggio -- whose detailed knowledge and scholarly grasp of U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Iraq's Anbar province goes far beyond most of the conventional talking-head "experts" -- has kindly agreed to an exclusive interview with The Counterterrorism Blog to discuss his recent trip as an embedded journalist alongside frontline American military units in western Iraq.  We expect to hit on some specific topics of interest to CT Blog readers, including a status check on Al-Qaida's activity in al-Anbar and the controversial issue of Iraq's foreign fighters.  (If anyone would like to suggest additional questions for Bill, please drop us a line...)

Jordanian Zarqawi Ally Resurfaces in Chechnya

By Evan Kohlmann

In a new communique dated January 2, Abu Hafs al-Urdani--a top Jordanian mujahideen commander in Chechnya who has been linked by the U.S. State Department to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's terrorist network in Iraq--has resurfaced after months of public silence to reassure supporters that the recent death of Saudi Abu Omar al-Saif has not dented the ongoing efforts of the mujahideen.  According to the authenticated statement received from Abu Hafs:

"We have received so much support that, lately, we have found ourselves to be overwhelmed by the sheer number of men, both young and old, who have come to join us in the jihad.  This number is well above the number we actually need, and is completely disproportionate to the [scale of the] battle that is taking place.  However, we must praise Allah for this! ...Your brothers in Chechnya have remained determined, despite the losses they have suffered�the most recent of which was the death of our mujahid Shaykh Abu Omar al-Saif, may Allah have mercy on his soul and may he allow him to join the ranks of the martyrs."

Click to view English translation c/o Globalterroralert.com

See also:
- Islamic Army of the Caucasus leadership chart (January 2005)
- CTBLOG: The Death of Abu Omar al-Saif
- Sawt al-Qoqaz mourns the death of Abu Omar al-Saif
- The GSPC in Algeria offers condolences for the death of Abu Omar al-Saif

Pakistan Arrests Important Militants Linked to Al Qaeda & Pakistani Intel

By Andrew Cochran

There are news reports that Pakistan arrested Ghulam Mustafa, a.k.a. Ghulam Mustafa Tabassum, in Lahore 10 days ago. Tabassum is a leader in the outlawed Lashkar-e-Jhangvi militant group, which is linked to Al Qaeda. The Reuters story quotes an Pakistani official: "He is amongst the top nine terrorists in the country and was also involved in the planning of two failed assassination attempts on President Musharraf...He was a leading figure in Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and was also wanted for the Bari Imam attack" (a suicide bombing at a Muslim shrine last May in which 19 people were killed). More: "The official said Tabassum had been running Lashkar's most militant arm, the Akram Lahori Group, after its leader Usman Choto was arrested in Karachi on December 18. He said Tabassum was also involved in a series of attacks on Western targets as well as minority Shi'ite Muslims." Other news reports note the Pakistanis haven't turned Tabassum over to the U.S. for interrogation because he "has some tales to tell, but the authorities in Pakistan would rather they were not heard, especially by the Americans..." Another news report on the arrest: "Ghulam Mustafa's confessions that he was doing logistics for al-Qaeda while also coordinating with Pakistan's secret services in Kashmir were if not a surprise, certainly an embarrassment." Although Tabassum is described as "al-Qaeda chief in Pakistan" in this report, anybody who regularly follows news of Al Qaeda arrests and deaths is, by now, understandably very wary of such designations. Pakistan also arrested "three other Lashkar militants of accused of involvement in a series of attacks on Shi'ites..."Their names are included in the most wanted list of terrorists and they were planning more attacks in the city."

GSPC wants to establish Al Qa in the Maghreb

By Olivier Guitta

Recently,four Algerians presumably close to the GSPC were placed in temporary detention in Spain. The Spanish judge, a Madrid native, Fernando Andreu suspects them of financial and logistical support to GSPC and of having tried to acquire in Grenade, dynamite Goma-2 in exchange for hashish ; interestingly this is the same dynamite that was used in the Madrid attacks of March 11, 2004.
On November 24, 17 Islamists were arrested in Morocco, and according to the depositions made by one of them, they were affiliated with the Algerian group GSPC. GSPC has become probably the spearhead of the jihad in the Maghreb and in the countries of the Sahel. Their objective is to make the Maghreb a launching pad towards Europe under the auspices of the Algerian Islamist Khalid Abou Bassir, considered as one of the Al Qaida leaders in Europe. Among the arrested Islamists is a Belgian Moroccan Mohamed Reha who stated: "Not only were we preparing jihad operations in Morocco but we were working to expand our Jihadist movement to all the countries of the Maghreb with the help of our Algerian brothers from the GSPC�. Some of the arrested Islamists have told the police that they lived in Syria and from there have helped infiltrate Moroccan and Tunisian fighters into Iraq to join the forces of Abu Musab Al Zarqawi.
Khalid Abou Bassir would have also informed Reha of its project to create a " jihadist movement for the Arab Maghreb under the Al Qa�da leadership with a single organization for Morocco and Algeria". After the GSPC had made allegiance to Al-Qa�da, we decided, Reha declared to call our movement: " Al-Qa�da in the Arab countries of the Maghreb". According to Reha�s statements a group of Moroccans and Algerians, close to Al Qa�da, were "to conduct attacks against American and Jewish interests in Morocco, in particular in Tangier (northern) and Essaouira (south-western)". "Attacks were programmed against hotels particularly in Essaouira and Agadir where many Jewish tourists stay, along with the casino of Tangier and the Parliament in Rabat�, and finally also against ships "transporting Americans".

NY Times's Ombudsman: Explanation of decision to report NSA program was "woefully inadequate"

By Andrew Cochran

Today's New York Times includes a column by Brian Calume, the "public editor" (basically an ombudsman), titled, "Behind the Eavesdropping Story, a Loud Silence," in which he complains about lack of cooperation by NYT management in answering his questions on the decision to disclose the NSA intercept program. Last week, my colleague Evan Kohlmann termed the administration's execution of the program "arrogant and bumbling." In light of Mr. Calame's column, those terms might be equally applicable to the NYT's reporting decision. See selected excerpts of the column below:

The New York Times's explanation of its decision to report, after what it said was a one-year delay, that the National Security Agency is eavesdropping domestically without court-approved warrants was woefully inadequate. And I have had unusual difficulty getting a better explanation for readers, despite the paper's repeated pledges of greater transparency.

For the first time since I became public editor, the executive editor and the publisher have declined to respond to my requests for information about news-related decision-making. My queries concerned the timing of the exclusive Dec. 16 article about President Bush's secret decision in the months after 9/11 to authorize the warrantless eavesdropping on Americans in the United States.