Alleged Bin Laden Tape Continues to Urge U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

While we don't yet know if the audiotape released today is actually from Osama bin Laden, it is consistent with the rhetoric that he tailored for a Western audience in the past. Many reasons underlie the release of any al-Qaeda tape, including bin Laden's desire to signal his continuing relevance to the terrorist organization. However, if the tape proves to be genuine, it provides further insight on bin Laden's thinking about how al-Qaeda can win its war against the West.

The new tape offers a truce in return for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan:

We have no objection to responding to a long term truce according to equitable conditions which we would honor . . . so that the two sides could enjoy security and stability under this truce, and so that we could rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan which the war has destroyed. There are no flaws in this solution, which would prevent the flow of billions of dollars to the people of influence and the warmongers in America, those who supported the Bush electoral campaign with billions of dollars.

I have written before about al-Qaeda's attempt to signal that it can be appeased (see, for example, my Daily Standard article). This tape obviously continues to harp on that theme.

One hallmark of bin Laden's attempts to appeal to appeasement-minded Westerners has been a populist message that draws a deep divide between the common people and the bloodthirsty warmongers who are allegedly making massive profits off the U.S.'s wars. The latest audiotape not only speaks of this explicitly, but also supports the argument with a reference to the latest opinion polls on Iraq:

In respect of his comment on the opinion polls in America, which alluded to the fact that the overwhelming majority amongst you are in favor of withdrawing the troops from Iraq. However, he [President Bush] objected to this wish and said that the withdrawal of troops would send the wrong message to the enemies . . . and that it would be better to fight them in their own lands, rather than to have them fight us on our own lands. . . . I say: the result of the survey does satisfy the wise people; and the objection of Bush to them is wrong.

Insight into why bin Laden's tapes have tried to divide the American people from the government can be found in his first encounter with the U.S. on a battlefield. This first encounter occurred on October 3, 1993, when eighteen Americans were killed in the streets of Mogadishu, Somalia. This incident was popularized in the bestselling book and movie called Black Hawk Down. Even though the incident was an overwhelming tactical victory for the U.S., with hundreds of dead Somali militiamen far outstripping the U.S. casualties, President Clinton withdrew shortly thereafter because he thought there was no public support for continuing military action.

Gerald Posner writes of the lesson bin Laden drew from this incident in his book Why America Slept: "The signal to bin Laden was that the U.S. was not strong and that it would run at the first sight of real warfare. It was clear that Americans did not have any stomach for casualties, something Muslims had noted in 1983 when Ronald Reagan had responded to the deaths of 241 marines in the Beirut barracks truck bombing by withdrawing U.S. troops from Lebanon." Bin Laden later told the Pakistani newspaper Dawn: "Hardly eighteen of them were killed, when they fled in the dark of the night, despite the uproar that was created worldwide about the New World Order."

One final noteworthy aspect of the new audiotape is that it's consistent with bin Laden's tendency to track, and attempt to address, some of the burning questions that Americans are asking. In his October 2004 video, bin Laden mocked the answer that the Bush administration gave to the question "Why do they hate us?" The new audiotape addresses another question that Americans frequently ask: why hasn't al-Qaeda carried out another attack in the U.S. since 9/11? The audiotape's take: "As for the delay in carrying out similar operations in America, this was not because of a failure in breaking through your security measures. The operations are being prepared and you will see them in your own backyard as soon as they are ready with the leave of Allah."

UPDATE, 2:15 P.M.: According to ABC News, the CIA has confirmed that the voice on the audiotape is bin Laden.

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» Bin Laden warns of attack on US, offers truce from Secular Blasphemy
TITLE: Bin Laden warns of attack on US, offers truce URL: http://blogs.salon.com/0001561/2006/01/19.html#a8784 IP: 80.202.105.174 BLOG NAME: Secular Blasphemy DATE: 01/19/2006 03:07:52 PM [Read More]

» Usama bin Laden Tape Authenticated by CIA from Conservative Thinking
Fox News is now confirming that the CIA has authenticated the tape released earlier today by Aljazeera of Usama bin Laden threatening the United States and offering us a conditional truce (the terms of which weren't detailed in the tape).... [Read More]

» War is PR by other means from The Cool Blue Blog
A few days after a CIA strike in Pakistan killed a number of top al Qaida operatives, bin Laden says to the US Have you had enough? Yeah, we''ll take the truce but you have a few documents to sign. [Read More]

» Bizarro World! Bin Laden Offers Truce, Chirac Threatens Nukes!? from RightWinged.com
First off, if you've just woken up, or otherwise hadn't heard.... Bin Laden released an audio tape today. The Political Teen has the video (actually video from CNN, but it is just an audio tape.) Here's a quick summary...... [Read More]

» AP: Osama Bin Laden Is "Exiled Dissident". Not Terrorist? Not The First Time. from RightWinged.com
hat tip: Michelle Malkin, who hat tips Little Green Footballs for this find... (read the caption) Yup, you read it right. The AP is calling the world's most notorious terrorist an "exiled Saudi dissident". A couple quick Google and Yahoo!... [Read More]

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Hamas has apparently won a significant victory in the Palestinian voting and will be forming the next government. This has been almost universally depicted as a disaster for the peace process and for the Middle East. It is understandable that [Read More]

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