Davos and Terrorism: Nothing Really New This Year

By Victor Comras

While global terrorism got some attention at this year�s Davos World Economic Summit, it was not one of the conference's central themes. Some attention was given to the economic costs associated with terrorism, and to continuing economic vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks. There was also an on-going polemic between Western and Muslim participants on the nature, causes and best ways to treat international terrorism. Iran, Iraq, and Hamas' victory in the Palestinian terrorities generated some debate. But, nothing really knew came from these discussions and few new recommendations were presented.

One Conference Session focused on the immense costs associated with combating global terrorism. The US and world economy lost billions after the 9/11 attack and we are still absorbing the on-going costs of protecting ourselves from future terrorist attacks. But, hard questions are now being asked concerning the cost effectiveness of the security systems we have put in place. Several Davo�s participants questioned whether government�s may be going overboard on security expenditures. Others contend that such expenses are justified given the potential human, social and economic costs future major terrorist attacks might entail. All agreed that closer consultation and coordination between government, industry and business would lead to a better use of security-related funding.

One of the more interesting events was a simulated exercise involving major oil supply disruptions caused by terrorism. Two scenarios were studied: simultaneous terrorist attacks on key choke points along the global energy supply and subsequent further attacks in the Persian Gulf against soft targets, which exacerbate fears concerning long term oil shortages. These attacks are posited as driving the price of oil into the $124.00 - $134.00 a barrel range. The recommended response measures included taking immediate steps to protect other key infrastructure and �choke points; calling on OPEC and non OPEC producers to maximize production, releasing of global oil reserves, and mandatory conservation measures. But, participants felt that the ultimate result of oil supply disruption would be very substantial longterm economic consequences for the international community. Their conclusion was that much greater impetus must be given to the development of alternative energy sources.

Iran, Iraq and Hamas also were also on many participant's minds. There is no certainty about Tehran's intentions, said the UK's Jack Straw, "But it is prudent to believe that they are developing a nuclear weapons capability." The current situation "is totally unacceptable", said US Senator Saxby Chambliss (Georgia R). Neither the US nor the rest of the world can afford to allow Iran to get nuclear weapons and for these to then "fall in the hands of the terrorists". Failure in Iraq was also viewed as untenable by conference participants because of the reprecussions that could be expected throughout the middle east. With regard to the Palestinian situation, leaders from across the Muslim world argued that Hamas, which handily won election, must be given a chance. But European and American participants made it clear that Hamas would first have to renounce terrorism and come to terms with Israel's right to exist.

Muslim leaders attending the conference expressed concern with the links being drawn between Islam and terrorism. They rejected such terminology as "Islamic extremism" or "Islamic terrorism" which demonstrated a bias against Islam. Others pointed out that the Islamic community should take greater responsibility for what was happening and engage more directly in combating fundamentalist jihadi influence. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf told the group that �extremism is in the mind of the people, and you can't just eliminate it: You must change minds. The military can't do this alone, but for the end result, the military is now buying time for the other institutions.� Prince Turki Al Faisal, the Saudi Ambassador to the USA, also assured the group that Saudi government is now actively challenging the ideology that spawns terrorists and working to prevent terrorist acts. Yet, most of the Muslim leaders attending the conference continued to oppose a definition of terrorism that did not include a �freedom fighter� exception.

I guess we still have a long way to go to develop a true international strategy to deal with global terrorism.

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