Six Messages From the New Bin Laden Tape
By Walid Phares
Bin Laden has sent the US and the West his options for "Future Jihad." He
is sending a notice to the Ameican people. We will analyze that. But why is he
doing this now and what does he expect as reaction? I will analyze the premices
to his speech, before thoroughly analyzing the entire speech in context tonight.
He starts with
???????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ?? ???
"Our situation, thanks to Allajh, is better than yours." This
by itself is very indicative. Psychologically, you can see the insistence
on projecting a strong al Qaida both to his members and to the Western
public.
Then he says:
???? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????
????????? ????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????
????????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ?????
????? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ?? ?? ???????? ???
?????
"your polls indicate that your people wants a withdrawal from Iraq, but
your President objected as this would constitute a wrong message to the foes.
And it is best that we (America) fight them on their land than on ours."
Bin Laden is attempting to reverse this equation. Then he says
???? ??? ????? ???????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???????
???????? ??????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?? ??? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???
?????? ????? ??????? ????.
(you don't have the full truth because your President is suppressing
media). "he had plans to shell al Jazeera". This sentence, if anything shows the place al Jazeera holds in al Qaida's
media outreach.
Then he says
?????? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ??? ??
?? ???? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ????
??? ?????? ???? ??????? ??
??????
"This defeat in Iraq will be known when the American people will be made
aware of it." Which indicate to me that al Qaida is concerned about the
rising awareness of the American public against terrorism (more on this
later).
Then he states:
Then he states:
??? ??? ???? ?????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ????????? ???????
???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ?? ???????
?? ??? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ??? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ???? ??????
?????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ??? ???????
???????? ?? ??? ????? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ????.
"The Jihadists were able to penetrate all security measures of the
coalition, including in Europe. The fact that operations in the US are late,
means only that it is coming, and you will see it inside your country
(US). This indicates that al Qaida is determined to wage operations in America,
but of a different nature. As I argue in "Future Jihad," it is about insuring the
proper numbers of Jihadists (more on it to come).
He states:
?? ??? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ???????? ???
????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ????
??? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????????
?????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ??????? ?????
???? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?????.
He proposes a "long term truce" with several conditions, all of which demands the US to implement withdrawals and recognition of defeat. (more on it is coming). In fact Bin Laden's tape shows:
1. That the war in Iraq is going al Qaida's way.
2. The American people are not informed, and the polls shows its real
position towards withdrawal.
PS: An indication that Bin Laden watches the American political process and
wants to ignite opposition to the war from the inside of the US.
3. The fact that no operations have taken place within the US doesn't mean
that they're not going to happen. There will be soon operations within the US
and the West. Operations are being prepared, according to the message.
PS: Which means that there are significant questions in the Jihadi
constituencies about the lack of operations in America - a subject discussed in
the chat rooms.
4. The al Qaida operations will not be confined to Iraq.
PS: Meaning other countries will become operational areas for al
Qaida.
5. The penetration of Western and US security systems is a metter
to be discussed in the public debate.
6. The Bin Laden proposition for a "long term armistice" is in
itself a prelude to further attacks coming. This is a Jihadist parameter.
Al Qaida is undertaking a strategic reassessment after developments in
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and US homeland security.
Walid Phares