Is the ETA's "Ceasefire" Sincere and Permanent?

By Andrew Cochran

The "Basque Fatherland & Freedom" terrorist group, known as ETA, has declared a ceasefire and pledged to pursue the political process to achieve its goal of political independence for the Basque territory. Founded over 40 years ago, ETA is considered responsible for over 800 killings. You can read profiles on ETA at the BBC site, Wikipedia encyclopedia, and MIPT's Terrorism Knowledge Base. You can see the text of the ceasefire statement at the CNN site. ETA was first designated as a "Foreigh Terrorist Organization" by the U.S. State Department in October 1997.

But is the ETA sincere in its new declarations, considering the numerous ceasefires previously declared and broken, and will this one be permanent? Emilio Alonso, a Spanish blogger with whom I've communicated about ETA from time to time, wrote a post on his blog (Spanish-language) with his skepticism. At my request, he translated his post, which I'm running in total below with no edits, comments, or explanation of the parties named in the post. For a more optimistic view, see James Dunnigan's post on his StrategyPage.com site. Here is Emilio's post (all links are his, and I removed footnotes in his original):

Where�s the news here?

What�s this all fuss about? It could have happened a little later, as Socialist Party would have wished to use it as lure for the nearing local polls but, as a matter of fact, it was as clear as daylight that ETA was to announce a cease-fire sooner or later. It is the next logical step in the strategy designed by the radical nationalists in Perpignan which includes, obviously, the vile exploitation of the people�s passionate eagerness to see the end of the terrorist murdering, just to achieve their objectives.

No need to be Talleyrand to know the way the next facts will happen.

1. The Government will call together all the political parties to stage this so called �consensus will� which, the main part of the times, holds noting within, just to announce after all that the Popular Party has auto-excluded of any kind of dialogue forum because of the intransigence of its positions, condemning itself to the well-known PP�s solitude. We�ve seen this before and there�s no reason to think it won�t happen again. Socialist Party will sell to their supporters that the consensus is made with the agreement of all the democratic forces apart from PP. But what the hell democratic parties exist in Spain apart from PP and � formally at least, PSOE? Government will count on the support of the nationalist parties (which, by their own nature, are not democratic and are only focused in particular regional interests and, thus, are the main beneficiaries of the ongoing process to break the present order) and in the Communist Party of Llamazares, which I hope nobody will seriously call democratic. Popular Party will stay apart, that�s right, unfortunately alone defending the open society and the Spain of liberties, and not the nationalist entelechy. Rajoy has brilliantly pointed out that we�ve already got a principle around which we democrats could gather: the Pacto por las Libertades y contra el Terrorismo, and that any appeal to the unity of democrats out of the contents of this agreement is nothing more than a resignation of the Principle of Legality and a surrender in front of the terrorists. But, of course, to understand this, thinking is a need, and the Socialist Party and its loyal media do not seem to be stimulating the people to think, but to whirl the handle of propaganda. Believe me: we will get to hate the word Peace.

2. Those things usually called signs will star to happen and will doubtless go further everyday. My blog mate, Shen, who is doing a great job in the tracking of the news, has pointed out a relevant source of such a kind of signs. The integrity of some judges could partially set back the process to give up the legality that C�ndido Conde-Pumpido has been entrusted to carry on with (whose main fact was the recent dismissal of Fungairi�o), but it�s evident that we will soon see the advance of this signs politics to fulfil the existing agreements between ETA and the Government: the release of the convicts and the revoking of the declaration of unlawfulness for Batasuna, two signs that ETA is not asking for because it already count on them as a matter of fact, as some of as are saying from long ago (Specially with regards to the first one of those measures, I recommend reading another writing of Enrique de Diego written almost a half a year ago, where the author unveiled the plans to release the convicts to send them to Caribbean, as happened in the seventies and eighties).

3. The Basque Country will enter a spiral of by-law reformation under ETA�s guidance, similar to this happened in Catalonia but without any kind of moderate element and probably with more destructive effects, because the totalitarian project of ETA is even tougher than ERC�s one. The Socialist Party, in advance, has finished the process to take apart the scarce dissenting voices still remaining, after the exile imposed to Rosa D�az out of any representative role � and out of access to the Mass Media.

4. By the way, we�ll live, as in previous chances, the mirage of a cease-fire, but not a real one.

First, because a cease decreed unilaterally means nothing. For this to be real we need to have two parties of the same kind mutually recognising each other as valid interlocutors and with enough leadership and competence to reach valid agreements. Saying that the cease-fire is possible is as much as saying that the State and ETA are same level parties in a conflict.

Second because, moreover, it is false, and always has been, that the cease will take place. ETA will go on blackmailing the Basque society with the purpose of reaching loyalty and financial resources. When ETA decrees a cease fire we have to understand that the bombings and murders will cease, but doubtless the awful plot of the revolutionary tax will still go on, and the people besieged in the Basque Country (like Gotzone Mora, etc.) will never see relaxed the criminal pressure over them. This is the way truces work: with the finger in the trigger.

So, here I go again: where the news is in this all? We�re just witnessing the calculated dance of the negotiation, which has been running from when the Socialist Party arrived to Moncloa. This ETA announcement is no more than a foreseeable and essential step more in the race towards the definitive ending of the Spain of the Liberties born with the Constitution of �78 and towards the balkanization of our country. Is spite of Rubalcaba�s words, it is not a peaceful horizon what comes into sight, but the gloomy horizon of the totalitarian drift.

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