Steven Emerson: Bin Laden Trying to Rally Muslim Masses to Attack Civilians

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson discussed the new Bin Laden audio tape today on the Fox News Channel and on MSNBC. You can see the Fox News interview video here and and the MSNBC video here. Here are the transcripts of the interviews:

Fox News Channel interview:

TRACE GALLAGHER: Steve Emerson is the Executive Director of the Investigative Project and counterterrorism analyst. Steve, what do you make of the latest tape?

EMERSON: I think it shows that Bin Laden is trying to reassert himself, make himself relevant. He hasn’t been heard of since January. But here is a clear, direct tape, an appeal to the Muslim masses to rise up, carry out jihad, and almost provide pre-justification for an attack that may be carried out civilians.

GALLAGHER: Scott McClellan coming out and saying, a little bit ago, that they have got Bin Laden on the run. Is there a way that we can use this tape to our advantage?

EMERSON: The bottom line is that his appeal to jihadist ideology is definitely resonating with a certain percentage of the Muslim population around the world. The question is what percentage? As Peter Hoekstra said this morning on Fox, we have to appeal to genuine Islamic moderates to come out against this kind of ideology. Can it be used against him? I think it could basically show the western world, and particularly the American public, that we still have a battle that we are fighting and it is [against] radical jihadism.

GALLAGHER: What do you make of the timing of these tapes. I know it takes a while for them to get these tapes to wherever he is, actually to Al Jazeera. Are they released, are these reactionary at all, do you think?

EMERSON: I think these are targets of opportunity. Obviously he feels secure enough now that he can risk or jeopardize his location by having these tapes released. Every time a tape is released there is a potential for walk-back or unraveling of the network used to get the tape to Al Jazeera. So he obviously feels secure enough to release the tape. On the other hand, he is on the run and U.S. intelligence believe that they have basically quarantined him to a particular area, in Waziristan.

GALLAGHER: Steve, these stories we are hearing and the possibility that maybe Zawahiri and Bin Laden have separated, maybe even the fact that they are at odds; do you put a lot of weight in those?

EMERSON: I don’t know about them being at odds, but certainly prudence on their part, because of operational security that they have learned very, very intimately, would require them to basically live apart, work apart, and not congregate or be together, lest there is a strike that takes one of them out. I would suspect that they are not in communication, that the way they communicate is probably through tapes like this, when they sort of signal each other that each one is basically supporting the jihad of the other guy.

GALLAGHER: Steve Emerson. Steve, thanks.

EMERSON: You are welcome.

MSNBC interview:

CONTESSA BREWER: For analysis into the new tape, its authenticity, and the reason behind it, I am joined now by Steve Emerson, terrorism analyst and Executive Director of the Investigative Project. Steve, thank you for your time today.

STEVEN EMERSON: Good afternoon.

BREWER: Who is [Osama] Bin Laden’s target audience, here?

EMERSON: Unlike previous tapes, this tape seems to be geared directly toward the Muslim masses and trying to rally Muslim supporters around the world to launch attacks on theUnited States and on West European countries. Specifically, he goes into all of the hot buttons, presses the hot buttons, that is, of Muslim sensitivities in trying to foment this notion that there is a war against Islam.

BREWER: He also says in this tape that, basically, civilians are responsible for the rulers and for the governments that they elect. Is this just an argument of civilian, regular people being fair game in a violent war?

EMERSON: I think that it absolutely provides him with an ability to basically say it is justified to carry out attacks against civilians, because there has been some backlash against some of the attacks against civilian targets, particularly the one in Amman, Jordan last year. So here is a real effort, an almost pre-justification of a future attack that would be launched against civilian targets, in case there is any criticism.

BREWER: I am curious, given the Muslim-on-Muslim violence in Iraq or in the Sudan, which he also mention here, and all the violent problems that country has had, would a message from Osama Bin Laden put a stop to violence that was happening in any of those countries should he choose to do that?

EMERSON: I am not so sure that he could put a stop to that type of violence. There are deep ethnic rivalries and tribal rivalries that are basically fomenting that. There are also splits between Shiites and Sunnies. Here he is trying to rally the masses in launching a jihad against the United States again that he has not been able to instigate since 9/11. He has issued numerous threats since 9/11, always saying that there is going to be an imminent attack and yet he has failed to do so. So here is a clear effort, where he is telling his supporters, “go ahead and attack and these are the reasons why you need to.”

BREWER: Steve, I know that, publicly at least, the Administration here in the United States doesn’t seem to put a whole lot of emphasis on these tapes. Are the intelligence experts ever able to glean valuable information from these audiotapes themselves?

EMERSON: I think they are, but less than they used to believe that they could collect, when he was issuing the tapes back in 2001 and 2002. They are looking for certain language, what he might be wearing, what the backdrop is. They might be looking at a certain type of phraseology to see if it is different than others as maybe it is a symbolic effort to instigate violence. So there are efforts to do so, but it is less important than it was in the past.

BREWER: Steve, we appreciate your time and your expertise, today. Terrorism analyst, Steve Emerson.

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