Steven Emerson: Iran Capable of Terrorist Attacks in U.S. Anytime

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson discusssed the new Ayman al-Zawahri video tape and the Iranian danger yesterday on MSNBC. You can see the interview on the Investigative Project of Terrorism website. Here is the transcript:

ALEX WITT: Let’s get perspective on this from terrorism analyst Steve Emerson. Good morning you to, Steve.

STEVEN EMERSON: Good morning, Alex.

WITT: True? Is that true? Have they broken the back of the American military, the U.S. military over there, these suicide bombings?

EMERSON: I think that is more wishful thinking than actual fact. Certainly the insurgency and the suicide bombings have hurt, but I don’t think it has broken the back, no.

WITT: Okay. What about three messages in one week? Any kind of significance or concern to that?

EMERSON: No. It has sort of been the trifecta of Al Qaeda this week. I would say to you that the fact that they all felt emboldened to issue videotaped messages indicates that they feel secure in their environment right now and they are trying to rally the masses and probably trying to instigate immediate attacks against the United States and western forces.

WITT: So to that end then, Steve, have these messages generated any kind of chatter that could possibly point to a terror threat to the U.S.?

EMERSON: I am not aware of any chatter. Of course, intelligence might have picked that up. But at this point, they have basically been very protective in how they get their messages out and they don’t usually create the same type of chatter that might have been used or created two years ago when they were more careless about how they communicated with one another.

WITT: So then what is your sense? I mean just your gut reaction. You know this world pretty well. Do you think they are increasing chatter among themselves or do you think that maybe the inspiration particularly from Osama Bin Laden just isn’t all that pertinent to what they do on a day to day basis?

EMERSON: It is too soon to tell. Remember, the bombings in the Sinai occurred one day after the Bin Laden tape. Of course that took months to plan, but the timing may have been linked- and I emphasize, may have been linked- to the tape itself. I think that these are really rallying cries. They are encouragements. They are basically saying, “This is a green light. Go ahead and attack,” and we will see in the next few weeks whether in fact they have had an effect.

WITT: You mentioned that the reason they may be able to release these tapes right now is because they feel secure in their environment. How is it then that you think they’re getting the information that they are getting, so specific, about what is going on in the world?

EMERSON: Well, they obviously have Internet access, and with Internet access basically able to be carried out around the world, they are constantly reading wire service reports. They are getting television stations. They are keeping abreast, as Bin Laden showed in his tape, of every single act by the U.S. government. They have been doing this for years. They have got their own intelligence center that basically rivals that of agencies.

WITT: Okay. Let’s move on to things in Iran right now. We know the latest developments. The U.N. yesterday, the watchdog there, the IAEA, saying Iran has defied the orders to freeze its uranium enrichment program. How close is Iran, do you think, to making a nuclear bomb?

EMERSON: That was a frightening report and it lays the groundwork for potential sanctions against Iran. It basically states that we are simply totally in the dark about the level of how much uranium Iran now is enriching. We know that they have produced low grade uranium and there are also suggestions they have acquired plutonium. That would indicate that they could be as close as six months to a year away. No one really knows exactly how far away because it is cloaked in such secrecy, Alex, and there have been ranges in U.S. intelligence agencies, from one year to ten years. That is a wide range that really gives us very, very little encouragement about the degree of specificity of our intelligence.

WITT: You know, Iranian president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, he has threatened terror attacks if the U.N. imposes sanctions. How worried are you that he would carry that out?

EMERSON: I think we have to take him at his word. Iran has carried out terrorist attacks outside its borders for more than 20 years. In 1994, Hezbollah, its surrogate, bombed the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires. Iranian dissidents have been killed in Europe. And in 2004, the Iranian diplomatic guards, taking videos of landmarks and bridges in New York, were expelled. They have the capability of carrying out attacks.

WITT: So does that mean that Iran has people in this country that would be capable of carrying out attacks?

EMERSON: I believe they do. They certainly have the capability, and they have demonstrated that, of carrying out reconnaissance, videos, photographing, as well as all reports they communicated back to Tehran for the contingency of carrying out attacks. And they have other terrorist groups that I believe would be willing to assist them as surrogates.

WITT: Okay. MSNBC terrorism analyst, as always, we appreciate your candor. Steve Emerson, thank you so much.

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