Miami Immigration Case Sets Solid Precedent For Potential Use In Terrorism & Security Arena

By Bill West

Lionel Jean-Baptiste is now a Haitian citizen who is a lawful permanent resident alien of the United States. He is also a convicted drug trafficker who is detained at the Krome Detention Center near Miami, Florida pending removal (deportation) proceedings based upon his drug crimes. Until recently, Jean-Baptiste was a naturalized U.S. citizen.

The U.S. Government, originally the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) and later Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as well as the Department of Justice (DOJ) pursued the revocation of Jean-Baptiste’s naturalized citizenship in Federal civil court proceedings in what has become a unique and now precedent-setting case, reaching all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. Last October, the Supreme Court denied Jean-Baptiste’s petition for a writ of certiorari and allowed the ruling of the Federal 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to stand.

That 11th Circuit ruling affirmed the revocation of Jean-Baptiste’s U.S. citizenship based upon the Government’s contention that he lacked “Good Moral Character” before and during the time he applied for U.S. citizenship, due to his drug trafficking activities, and that he misrepresented that good moral character in the naturalization process. Once the Supreme Court issued its ruling and the citizenship revocation became final, ICE began removal proceedings against Jean-Baptiste because he was then an alien convicted of a drug trafficking violation and also an aggravated felony. As such, Jean-Baptiste will likely remain detained while his removal proceedings are adjudicated, a process that could literally take several years if he chooses to appeal adverse decisions, with appellate rights ranging from the Board of Immigration Appeals, the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals (again) and the U.S. Supreme Court (again) on the deportation issues.

AS SAHAB ANNOUNCES A BIN LADEN VIDEO ON SOMALIA

By Walid Phares

As Sahab Productions announced that a Video message by UBL"is coming" without a specific date. The announcement in the web site Marquee cites a message addressing the Jihadists in Iraq and Somalia. Chat rooms and other al Jazeera panels have been trying to determine the global position of al Qaida regarding post Zarqawi Iraq and regarding Somalia after the take over of Mogadiscu by the "IslamicTribunals." (al Makakem). I assume Bin laden has decided to address the issue of Somalia strategically. With regards Iraq, between his last message and Zawahiri's its pretty much clear.

On June 7, I noted Somalia's "Mahakem al Islamiya" is connected to al Qaida.

Translation: "As-Sahab: Coming Soon - Sheikh Usama Bin Laden to the Muslim Nation as a whole and in particular to the Mujahideen in Iraq & Somalia."

Excerpts from the Osama bin Laden Tape

By Bill Roggio

The latest Osama bin Laden tape has focused almost exclusively on the death and lionization of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, with very little deviation on this theme. As Evan Kohlmann indicated last evening, the "intended audience are those primarily supportive of Al Qaeda." Excerpted below are items of interest in the tape (post will be updated when a full transcript is available):

Osama bin Laden compares Zarqawi to Muhammed and the revered Imams of the Islamic faith, including Imam Ali, who is venerated in Shia Islam. Given Zarqawi's practice of slaughtering the Shia to incite a civil war, this hypocritical reference by bin Laden is curious.

Abu-Mus'ab followed the example of our Prophet Muhammad, God's peace and blessings be upon him, and followed the example of Mus'ab, Umar, Ali, and Ja'far, may God be pleased with all of them. He fought war with a smile, so God elevated his status and reputation and he became an example for people after him.

Osama bin Laden invokes the jihad in Sudan for the second time this year, and also mentions the rise of the Islamic Courts in Somalia:

"We will continue, God willing, to fight you and your allies everywhere, in Iraq and Afghanistan and in Somalia and Sudan until we waste all your money and kill your men and you will return to your country in defeat as we defeated you before in Somalia."

"This is a not-so-subtle nod to the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Somalia that successfully control of southern Somalia... which could also be an indication that bin Laden may have been aware of the fact that long-time al-Qaeda ally Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys has been appointed the new head of the ICU executive council," says independent terrorism analyst Dan Darling.

New Osama Bin Laden Video Tape Released (updated 6/30)

By Andrew Cochran

Image from Osama bin Laden's latest tape.

Some early quotes from CNN's translation: "I say to Bush, you should deliver the body to his family, and don't be too happy. Our flag hasn't fallen. Thanks to God, it has passed from one lion to another lion in Islam... You have prevented Abu Musab from entering his homeland alive. Don't stand in his way now... Our dear Muslim nation, we were deeply saddened by the passing of our loved ones, Abu Musab and his companions. But we were very happy that their souls have flooded these great battles as they were defending the Islamic law... We were very happy to find in him a symbol and role model for our future generations." And more quotes from the AP: "Our Islamic nation was surprised to find its knight, the lion of jihad (holy war), the man of determination and will, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, killed in a shameful American raid. Even if we lost one of our greatest knights and and princes, we are happy that we have found a symbol for our great Islamic nations, one that the mujahedeen will remember and praise in poetry and in stories secretly and aloud." Laura Mansfield has a complete copy of the tape in Arabic.

Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC: Tape doesn't indicate that any incidents are on the horizon - OBL is jumping on Zarqawi's coattails and using his legacy - ironic since OBL always had problems and Zarqawi is more useful to OBL dead - the tape is subtitled only in arabic, so the intended audience are those primarily supportive of Al Qaeda in Mideast (tapes intended for the West are subtitled in English and American recruits are used in producing these tapes) - OBL is saying Zarqawi's death is only a bump in the road and a sign of moving towards victory, and Al Qaeda appreciates Zarqawi's role - Zarqawi is the "rock star" and Iraq became the front line since the US arrived there - Americans have nothing to fear from this but it was intentionally put out in time for July 4th, as OBL and Al Qaeda are very media-savvy.

Steven Emerson on MSNBC on 6/30 (excerpts): "This was not a message for the West, unlike previous messages of, maybe, six months ago. This was a message to the Arab masses and he is trying to undermine some Arab regimes, particularly Jordan, so he can get Zarqawi buried in that country. Either he is in frail condition or some type of sick condition that would make it very obvious on camera or it’s an operational security matter for him. So, he is discovering that he can instill home-grown jihadists around the world simply by putting out these messages, without having to worry about logistically organizing attacks himself. I think there are increasing incidents of cells motivated by his ideology, but [that] are not taking orders from him, because they don’t need to."

Bill Roggio: Initial reports focus on Osama’s eulogizing of Zarqawi. Keep in mind the initial press reports often omit important facts in these tapes and focus on one or two of the sensational themes of the tape. Osama's reaction to Zarqawi's death is a sensational issue for the media. It is likely Osama discusses Zarqawi's successor in this tape, as 19 minutes is a long time to focus on Zarqawi. (UPDATED 6/30: See Walid Phares' post above.)

This video is about 19 minutes long and shows a still image of OBL and moving images of Zarqawi. There have been no fresh videos of OBL since October 2004. You can see a list of audio and videotapes from OBL here.

The tape was produced by Al Sabah, al-Qaeda's media wing (for a good look at how al-Qaeda produces and distributes its tapes, see this article from the Associated Press).

Libya's Last Day as a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" - Will They Pay Up?

By Andrew Cochran

The champagne corks are popping in Tripoli - yesterday was the end of an era, the day on which Libya's status as an official "state sponsor of terrorism," according to the United States of America, was supposed to end (pending official confirmation). Michael Kraft, who posted an extensive history of Libya's status on May 15, reminds me that "Libya was one of the first countries put on the list in 1979 and only the second taken off under the formal notification procedures (Iraq was first)." Today, the U.S. House passed the bill which would fund the State Department for fiscal year 2007. The bill includes the Sweeney Amendment, which would bar funding of the normalization process until Libya keeps its financial commitments to victims of Libyan terrorism. But yesterday, the Administration issued its Statement of Administration Policy (SAP) on the bill, and it expresses concern over that section and others "that purport to direct or burden the conduct of foreign relations, and of negotiations with foreign countries or international organizations, as well as condition the President’s decisions regarding the use of armed forces..." So while the Administration doesn't voice outright opposition to the Sweeney Amendment, the SAP could be cited in order to water down the Sweeney Amendment in the Senate.

There was one troubling statement from the State Department yesterday on this, indicating no explicit official support to enforce Libya's commitments to the victims. "We're not going to interpret the agreement. That agreement, as I said, is a legal document to which we are not a party and which does not come under our authority or under our jurisdiction. It is a legal agreement between the families and the Libyan government." And when a reporter asked, "So what you're saying is that the rescission of Libya from the list is totally and absolutely unrelated, in your view, to this particular payment?", the answer from a State Department spokesman was a simple, "Yes." That would not please Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), who has championed the victims' cause in the Senate. Here are his comments on the Senate floor yesterday:

Some Missing Parts of the Banking Debate

By Douglas Farah

My friend Dennis Lormel and others are correct in stating that programs to attack terror finance must be differentiated and viewed in their many different elements. Which is why what is striking in the current debate is not what is said but what is not discussed.

What is not being discussed is the non-formal methods of money transfer, with the accompanying use of commodities and other methods to store financial value; and the use of the Islamic banking structures and its corresponding, massive offshore structures. This includes not only the multiple holdings of DMI and others in the Bahamas, Caymen and Panama, but also the offshore holdings of designated terrorist financiers such as Yousef Nada and Idriss Nasreddin. None of these have been touched.

The Islamic banking strucutre, while having every right to exist as a system to meet particular religious constraints, does not play by the same rules. Massive amounts of money move outside the SWIFT-reported systems all over the world, in part through Islamic banks that are specifically designed to help the customer avoid the Western banking system. My full blog is here.

Prediction: Bush & Congress Will Override the Supreme Court's Gitmo Decision (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

The news networks are proclaiming that the Supreme Court handed the President a "strong rebuke" in the Hamdan case by declaring the proposed Gitmo trials are illegal under U.S. law and international Geneva conventions.

Oh, really?

The decision is actually a huge political gift to President Bush, and the detainees will not be released that easily. The President and GOP leaders will propose a bill to override the decision and keep the terrorists in jail until they are securely transferred to host countries for permanent punishment. The Administration and its allies will release plenty of information on the terrorist acts committed by the detainees for which they were detained (see this great ABC News interview with the Gitmo warden). They will also release information about those terrorist acts committed by Gitmo prisoners after they were released. They will challenge the "judicial interference with national security" and challenge dissenting Congressmen and civil libertarians to either stand with the terrorists or the American people. The Pentagon will continue to release a small number of detainees as circumstances allow. The bill will pass easily and quickly. And if the Supremes invalidate that law, we'll see another legislative response, and another, until they get it right. Just watch.

UPDATES: Michelle Malkin quotes a statement by Sens. Graham and Kyl: "We intend to pursue legislation in the Senate granting the Executive Branch the authority to ensure that terrorists can be tried by competent military commissions. Working together, Congress and the administration can draft a fair, suitable, and constitutionally permissible tribunal statute." Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist echoed their comments and promised, "I will pursue the earliest possible action in the United States Senate."

Small Progress with the Lord's Resistance Army

By Douglas Farah

One of the great tragedies of Africa in the past decade has been the mostly-ignored violence inflicted on parts of Uganda, Sudan and the DRC by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), led by a person who speaks directly to God and has been responsible for the kidnapping of thousands of children, the mutilation of many more, and other crimes against humanity.

The LRA is a terrorist organization that increasingly has proved to be a destabilizing factor across several countries in a region that is already reeling from criminal, terrorist and state-sponsored violence. Like the RUF in Sierra Leone and the Small Boy Units of Charles Taylor in Liberia, the LRA preys on children and women, primarily. Women are used as beasts of burden and sex slaves, the abducted children are turned into killers.

The LRA leader, Joseph Kony, gave his first interview ever to a journalist earlier this week, where he denied the undeniable and claimed the atrocities blamed on him were part of a propaganda campaign against him. Indicted by the International Criminal Court, along with most of the LRA leadership, Kony said he was fighting for "freedom." My entire blog is here.

Insurgent Counterproposal to Reconciliation; offer to lay down arms

By Bill Roggio

Evan Kohlmann's chart of the major Sunni insurgent/terrorist groups. Click to view.

Eleven insurgent groups, eight of which are being led by the 1920 Revolution Brigades, have issued a counter proposal to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's plan for national reconciliation. The insurgent groups have offered to quit the battlefield if the following conditions are met:

• The United States agrees to withdraw foreign forces from Iraq in two years.

• An end to U.S. and Iraqi military operations against insurgent forces.

• Compensation for Iraqis killed by U.S. and government forces and reimbursement for property damage.

• An end to the ban on army officers from Saddam's regime in the Iraqi military.

• An end to the government ban on former members of the Baath Party — which ruled the country under Saddam.

• The release of insurgent detainees.

The Associated Press reports the groups largely "operate north of Baghdad in the heavily Sunni Arab provinces of Salahuddin and Diyala." This region is the heart of the operational area of the Baathist/Saddamist insurgency. The 1920 Revolution Brigades is thought to be a mix of Saddam loyalists and military officers, and nationalist Islamists. The 1920 Revolution Brigades is also said to be the armed wing of Islamic Resistance Movement, or Muslim Brotherhood. The Salahudeen Brigades and Mujahideen Army are two other significant elements of the Sunni insurgency (see Evan Kohlmann's chart of the major Sunni insurgent/terrorist groups).

The demands issued by the eleven groups, specifically the end to the bans on Saddam era Army officers and Baathist participation in the government, indicate a significant portion of the Baathist/Saddamist insurgency is searching for a negotiated settlement to end their involvement in the fighting.

One of the demands of this insurgent block is already being met. The Iraqi government has released 450 detainees on June 27th, and over 2,500 total are scheduled to be released "through a series of 200 – 500 person releases throughout the month." While the loyalties of those released has not been made public, the releases are likely being targeted at the eleven insurgent groups as a sign of good faith. At the same time, the Central Criminal Court of Iraq continues to try members of the insurgency for violating the laws of Iraq. The ten latest members of the insurgency have been convicted of non-violent crimes such as "possession of illegal weapons, passport violations and illegal border crossing," and several will be likely eligible for pardon.

In this backdrop, Al Jazeera will soon release the latest statement from Osama bin Laden (apparently a videotape). The tape is said to contain praise for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the former leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq killed in a U.S. air strike earlier this month. It will be interesting to see if bin Laden offers support to Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, the current leader of the al-Qaeda backed Mujahideen Shura Council (the U.S. military still believes Mujhair and Egyptian Abu Ayyub al-Masri are one in the same). Mujhair's performance to date has been less than stellar, with significant defections from the Sunni community to the democratically elected government of Iraq.

It should be clear the current talks are on the beginning of a long and likely contentious negotiation process. The United States will not agree to a withdrawal timetable, and the Shiite dominated government will balk at the wholesale reinclusion of Baathists into the military and government. The talks are a merely starting point.

In the past, the negotiations between insurgent groups and the Iraqi government and Coalition have occurred under the covers (Walid Phares indicated the current round of negotiations have been occuring for months). Today the parties are willing to openly discuss reconciliation. The Sunni insurgent groups are taking a great risk by publicly exposing their proclivity to negotiate rather than fight to the end. Their assessment of the military and political situation on the ground clearly has changed, and is causing them to seek an end to the conflict rather than a fight to the death along side al-Qaeda and the other Islamist rejectionists.

CT Blog Experts Interviewed on SWIFT Disclosures

By Andrew Cochran

On June 23, Victor Comras posted, "Reports of US Monitoring of SWIFT Transactions Are Not New: The Practice Has Been Known By Terrorism Financing Experts For Some Time," in which he quoted from a 2002 UN report which briefly discussed the SWIFT program. Numerous media outlets have since interviewed Victor about his exclusive disclosure, including the Boston Globe and New York Times today, and Wolf Blitzer read the pertinent quote from the UN report today on CNN's "Situation Room."

Dennis Lormel, who also posted on his key role in the SWIFT program on June 23, was also interviewed by CNN for today's story, as well as by NBC and other media outlets.

Maliki clarifies reconciliation; Task Force 145 continues operations

By Bill Roggio

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has provided clarity to the controversial provision of amnesty for insurgents who killed U.S. and Coalition soldiers. "Any amnesty for insurgents will exclude fighters who killed Iraqis or soldiers of the multinational forces because these troops came to Iraq according to international agreements and they are contributing in making the political process successful... Those who commit such crimes will stand trial because the aim of killing Iraqis or foreign soldiers is to frustrate democracy and the political process." said al-Maliki, according to the Associated Press.

As I speculated in yesterday's National Review Online symposium, this amnesty is very likely directed at the "foot soldiers and mid-level functionaries (weapons smugglers, support cells, and facilitators)." But for a broader reconciliation plan to work, the Iraqi government will likely have to modify this position over time.

Omar at Iraq the Model reports three additional insurgent groups are interested in discussing reconciliation, and the Iraqi government is also beginning discussions with "more than 30 sheikhs who are prominent tribal leaders in al-Anbar region" who wish to end the violence in the region. Several tribes in Anbar have previously committed to hunt down al-Qaeda terrorists and created the Anbar Revenge Brigade to do so earlier this year.

As the Iraqi government pursues reconciliation, Task Force 145, the hunter-killer Special Operations teams assigned to dismantle al-Qaeda's organization in Iraq, continues its difficult work.

Coalition forces arrested Yousri Fakher Mohammed Ali, "a key al-Qaida suspect" wanted in the destruction of the dome of the Shiite Al Askari Mosque in Samarra (or Golden Mosque). Ali, aka Abu Qudama, is of Tunisian origin, was wounded during a raid in Baquba, where "fifteen other foreign fighters were killed in the confrontation." Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Sheik Abd-Al-Rahman, his spiritual adviser, were killed during an air strike in Baquba earlier this month.

"[National Security Adviser] Mouwafak al-Rubaie said the ringleader in the operation, an Iraqi he identified as Haitham Sabah Shaker Mohammed al-Badri, was still on the run. al-Rubaie said Abu Qudama and al-Badri were in a gang that included two other Iraqis and four Saudis who carried out the attack," according to the Associated Press.

Task Force 145 struck in Yusifiyah two days ago, and captured fourteen terrorists during multiple raids. Included in the catch were "known leaders of the Tawhid Wa'al Jihad and Jaysh al-Islamit" terrorist groups. Yusifiyah has been another al-Qaeda stronghold, and multiple raids have been carried out in this city. The full version of Zarqawi's last videotape was recovered in Yusifiyah, and Zarqawi was believed to have narrowly evaded capture during a Coalition assault on al-Qaeda safe houses in April.

In related news, al-Qaeda has made an interesting enemy in the Iraqi theater. After the murder and beheadings of four Russian diplomats and the subsequent release of videotape, Olivier Guitta speculated Russia might seek revenge. Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin has "ordered Russia's special services to hunt down and 'destroy' the killers of four Russian diplomats in Iraq." Odds are Russian FSB is seeking access to Task Force 145's files on al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Israel Begins Gaza Military Operations, With Possible End of Hamas Government (updated 6/28)

By Andrew Cochran

Israel has started a military campaign in Gaza against the Hamas-run Palestinian Authority, after Hamas refused to release Cpl. Gilad Shalit. This follows numerous attempts at negotiation through various third parties, and Israeli officials sent public and private signals in the past three days, including in private sessions with including journalists and bloggers, that they meant business and would not wait long. This operation will be extensive and could mean the complete end of the Hamas government.

One theory proposed to me by regional experts is that the capture was an intentional step engineered out of Hamas HQ in Damascus to sabotage any Hamas-Fatah prisoner swap and ratchet up tensions. They point out there is more than one "Hamas." See this NPR story for more discussion of htis view. It will be interesting to see what Abbas and Fatah do in reaction to the Israeli operations.

LAST UPDATE, 2:30 pm ET: "The IDF took control of the abandoned airport in Dahaniyeh and the town of Shuka in southern Gaza Wednesday morning." Israel also bombed a Hamas training camp and knocked out electricity and water supplies for most of the 1.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal "is a target for assassination for ordering the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip." Israel sent a message to Syria about its sponsorship of Hamas by buzzing President Assad's house.

The Multiple Challenges of Terrorist Financing

By Dennis Lormel

By Dennis M. Lormel

Terrorist financing presents a multi-dimensional challenge. When assessing terrorist financing, the tendency is to do so in an all encompassing generic sense. In actuality, terrorist financing should be broken down to its myriad of component parts. Strategies and methodologies should be focused on specific considerations, not generalities.

On the terrorist side of the ledger, there are two basic funding needs: fundraising and operational sustenance. Each consideration should be assessed separately. Terrorists must have sources of funding, the means of laundering funds and the availability of funding in order to achieve their goals. Terrorist organizations have had many years to perfect their funding methodologies. This has placed anti-terrorist financing efforts in a greater reactive mode. To truly succeed, more proactive and innovative detective measures must be devised and implemented. Strategies must be developed which enable investigators to track funds back to their point of origin and forward to terrorist strike teams. The challenge of identifying and disrupting funding flows is exacerbated by the variety of functional dimensions of terrorists. We are not dealing with terrorists as one dimensional individuals or organizations. Terrorists must be viewed in their functional roles. Functional roles include donors, fundraisers, facilitators, conduits, leaders, and jihadists to include operatives, martyrs and suicide bombers. Each function entails different funding requirements, relying on various funding streams to include both the formal and informal financial systems. If you’re in a detective position in government or industry in dealing with terrorist financing, the question to ask is…who are you most likely to deal with and in what capacity? This should factor into developing more focused disruptive strategies.

On the opposite side of the ledger or spectrum are anti-terrorist financing interests. From the perspective of the United States (U.S.), anti-terrorist financing interests should be placed in four broad rings. The inner ring consists of domestic government agencies. The second ring contains the domestic financial sector. The third ring encompasses the international government sector and international or regional organizations. The forth or outer ring is the international financial sector. Each of these rings or dimensions should be assessed individually in terms of their response to terrorist financing before being generically linked together and viewed from a global “terrorist financing” perspective.

Within the inner ring there are the law enforcement, intelligence, regulatory and diplomatic agencies possessing responsibility for terrorist financing. The first key in the U.S. to adequately addressing terrorist financing rests with interagency cooperation and coordination. The second key rests with the financial sector within the U.S. in terms of anti-money laundering and terrorist financing detective mechanisms. Germane to the success of the domestic financial sector is the level of cooperation and communication between the government and financial sectors. Government guidance is an important consideration. The third key, which is the most challenging key, lies with the international government community to include international and regional organizations such as the United Nations and the Financial Action Task Force. The appetite, willingness and wherewithal of the international community to deal with terrorist financing issues are critically important to the overall global response to terrorist financing. Consistent government to government, and international or regional organizational strategies must regularly be developed and implemented. U.S. government visibility and interaction with the worldwide government community is an important consideration. The forth key to adequately addressing terrorist financing rests with the international financial community. This sector must be reliant on cooperation and communication with the U.S. government and financial communities, as well as with the international government sector, to ensure a true global solution can be achieved.

When measuring the success of the U.S. government response to terrorist financing, the first consideration should be to assess its performance within the first ring or the foundation, that being the interagency community. In this regard the U.S. government deserves high grades, as validated by the 9/11 Commission report card grade of A-. With that stated, the U.S. government must strive to improve its interagency performance. The U.S. government should than be assessed against its interaction with each of the other three rings. With respect to the second and forth rings, the domestic financial and international sectors, respectively, the U.S. government deserves adequate grades. Areas where the U.S. government needs to improve include providing feedback and guidance concerning Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) reporting requirements and use BSA records. The area of greatest concern is the third ring, the international government sector. On balance, the international government community must do a much better job of attaining consistency and implementing meaningful global mechanisms to address the multitude of complex terrorist financing issues. It is not fair to hold the U.S. more responsible for global shortcomings than is deserved nor is it fair to evaluate the entire U.S. response based on global considerations without considering the totality of the U.S. government’s performance. However, the U.S., along with the global community, must step up significantly to establish forward thinking strategies and methodologies to disrupt the flow of funds to and from terrorists. A viable international response is critical to any level of success in truly diminishing terrorist funding streams.

The financial sector has done an adequate job of addressing BSA reporting requirements. Many institutions, entities and individuals in the financial sector deserve special credit and recognition for the level of cooperation they have demonstrated in assisting the U.S. government in various initiatives and in reporting suspicious activity. Overall, anti-money laundering programs within the industry have been fairly robust. Terrorist financing detection has been more challenging. The financial community has looked at terrorist financing through generic lenses as opposed to the multi-dimensional lenses required. One solution to this problem would be for the financial sector to develop and implement a specific terrorist financing training program. From training and understanding, better and more focused detective methodologies could be developed, tailored to the specific needs and dynamics of financial institutions.

Terrorist financing strategies and methodologies should be flexible and specifically focused with multi-dimensional considerations.

21 points in Maliki's program could confront terrorism in Iraq

By Walid Phares

In an interview with Radio Free Iraq, I reported that up to 21 points proposed in Prime Minister Maliki's program could become a solid base for an Iraqi war on Terror, if well implemented. The formation of a council for reconciliation, as a first item, indicates that negotiations among the main parties on this strategy have taken place for months. The text announced by PM Maliki thus is a result of discrete dialogue and has the consent of major players in the country. The conference of pro-government clerics to issue counter-fatwas in the near future is a powerful tool against the Jihadists. A proposed "Congress of heads of tribes against terrorism," is another tool, and the stipulation calling for support to "civil society groups" is also helpful. The adoption of a "rational discourse" by the media and government officials could become Iraq's war of words against the terrorists.

I note the "plan to end political assassinations, the political consensus against the Saddam supporters and the Jihadi Terrorists," and the contentious plan for amnesty is not really a general amnesty. There will be special committees to determine who didn't participate in war crimes, terrorism, etc., and there are special conditions for all those who would apply for amnesty, including a commitment for non-violence and support for elected government. The text asks Coalition forces to establish a mechanism to address human rights abuses. The program also addresses the problems of the victims of the Hussein regime, of the terorrists, and the war.

On the military level, the program calls for a fast-track building of Iraqi forces to prepare for the withdrawal of the coalition, thus affirming that the US withdrawal will be part of the rise of Iraqi forces. Perhaps the most daring declaration, by Iraqi standards, is the clear call for disarming the (Shiite) militias and the explicit naming of (Salafi) Takfiris as the "enemy."

You can listen to the interview in Arabic here.

Congressman's Move to Enforce Libya Settlement Survives...So Far (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Last week, I reported here on the effort by Rep. John Sweeney to enforce the settlement between Libya and the families whose loved ones died at the hands of Libyan terrorists on PanAm Flight 103 and elsewhere. Rep. Sweeney proposed to block the normalization of relations with Libya, including the removal of Libya from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, until Libya made the final settlement payment to the families. It appeared that Rep. Sweeney's surprise proposal (the Bush Administration didn't know about it until the last minute) might lead to opposition from the Administration and certain House Members, due to concern over the possible impact on the diplomatic process to normalize relations. After much backstage wrangling and public pressure, it appears more likely this morning that the Sweeney amendment, Section 626 of the Science, State, Justice, Commerce appropriations bill, will survive and be enacted by the House before consideration by the Senate. Here is a "Washington Post" article today which reports Libya's disclaimer of any official responsibility for any remaining payment, coupled with an expectation by the State Department and some family members that Libya will still make the final payment on the settlement. The Sweeney amendment still must be adopted by the Senate, and opposition to it by key Senators and commercial interests is still quite possible. UPDATE: Rep. Sweeney addressed the House on his proposal, and passage by the House is now assured with the support of other key Members.

Iraq and National Reconciliation

By Bill Roggio

National Review Online invited me to participate in an online symposium about the Iraqi government's efforts to end the insurgency by offering a plan for national reconciliation. There has been much criticism of this plan as it is feared insurgents responsible for killing American soldiers will be given a pass for their crimes. But in a war, there is no option to allow for 100% punishment of enemy combatants; for example, hundreds of thousands of Nazis escaped judgment at the end of World War II Bringing warring parties to the table often calls for seemingly distasteful compromises, but the ultimate goal of the government in an insurgency is to affect a political settlement. al-Qaeda and the Islmaist terrorists are not the target of reconciliation, the domestic, nationalist elements of the insurgency are. Excerpted for the National Review Symposium:

National reconciliation is a political settlement to end an insurgency, and has been successfully implemented to end insurgencies throughout the world. If implemented properly, this will produce a clear rift between domestic, nationalist elements of the insurgency and the of al-Qaeda, Ansar al-Sunnah and the Islamist terrorists groups in the Mujahideen Shura Council. This will level a strategic defeat for al-Qaeda. Their image as the one true voice of the Arab and Muslim world will be shattered, as their own fellow Sunni travelers will have rejected their ideology in favor of a political settlement with the democratically elected government of Iraq. Seven insurgent groups have already agreed to the terms, and twelve more are seriously considering the offer.

Two of the insurgent groups, the Iraqi National Resistance 1920 Revolution Brigades, and Jaysh Muhammad (or the Army of Muhammad), are considered two of the largest and most influential insurgent organizations. The Sunni Endowment, “one of Iraq's largest Sunni Arab groups” is also said to support the reconciliation plan. The potential participation of these groups in reconciliation cannot be undervalued.

The Iraqi government's offer of reconciliation should not be viewed in isolation, but in context with recent developments in Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is attempting to fulfill his pledge to restore order to the violence wracked nation. The Iraqi government has an opportunity to capitalize on the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The death of Zarqawi and follow on operations to dismantle al-Qaeda in Iraq's network gives the domestic, nationalist insurgent groups cover for their past activities. As al-Qaeda in Iraq remains in the spotlight, the lesser insurgent groups can claim al-Qaeda is the real perpetrator of the most heinous crimes, while they merely fought the “occupation forces.”

Combine the death of Zarqawi with the formation of the new government and the appointment politically acceptable ministers of interior and defense, as well as security operations to contain the insurgency in Baghdad (Operation Together Forward), Mosul, Basra and the flash point city of Ramadi, and the new Iraqi government is making a serious effort to quell the insurgency.

A positive outcome of recent security operations and the reconciliation proposal is by no means assured. al-Qaeda in Iraq and other terrorist groups have stepped up the bombing and mass killing campaigns in an effort to disrupt any political settlement and further the sectarian strife. The recalcitrant insurgent groups and terrorists will draw the long knives in an attempt to intimidate those who wish to lay down their arms, as they are traitors to the cause. The violence is very likely to increase over the next few months if insurgent groups do indeed accept the government's offer. Reconciliation is not a magic bullet to end the insurgency, but merely a step in the process.

Did Iran help in locating Zarqawi?

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, a credible Moroccan newspaper, La Gazette du Maroc, is affirming that Zarqawi was caught thanks to Iran and was the first gift to the US.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory? Maybe not.

Citing Iranian sources and Iraqi sources close to ex PM Alawi, the paper states that Jordanian intelligence may have gotten help from Iran in pinpointing Zarqawi's location. A few weeks ago the Iranian FM met with King Abdullah in Amman to allegedly negotiate the deal.
Then a few days later the Iranian FM was in Bagdad meeting with Iraki PM AL Maliki and allegedly US Ambassador Khalilzad.
Coincidence or not the US position softened around that time when for the first time Secretary of State Rice announced a possible ouverture to Iran.
People close to Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's son, also believe that Zarqawi was indeed handed by Iran as part of a package.

Keep in mind that this info is really very speculative but might not be as far fetched as one thinks.

More Troubling signs in Somalia

By Douglas Farah

The decision of the Islamist militias controlling Mogadishu to name a designated terrorist and known al Qaeda collaborator as its leader is another strong indication that, while the group may try to talk a moderate line, it has no intention of moderating it's radical, Taliban-style agenda.

Hassan Dahir Aweys was designated a terrorist supporter under Executive Order 13224, and has a long history of associating with Osama bin Laden and other Salafist groups. The International Crisis Group has the best field research available on him and his past activities.

The appointment could mean the marginalization of those within the Salafist movement and a reassertion of the most hardline elements. It is notable that the move was made while more international attention than usual is focused on the ebbing conflict in Somalia, where so far the Salafists have won in a rout. It could be interpreted as showing the newly-triumphant Salafists are willing to take whatever in-you-face moves necessary to consolidate their grip.
My full blog is here.

Congressional Terrorism-Related Hearings Include Testimony by Michael Cutler

By Andrew Cochran

The schedule of open Congressional committee hearings this week on terrorism-related matters includes a House Homeland Security Committee hearing at which Michael Cutler will testify on the topic, ""DHS Intelligence and Border Security: Delivering Operational Intelligence." Other hearings will review the status of the Afghanistan campaign, the crisis in Somalia, and the Iraqi WMD issue. The full schedule is below:

How will Russia react to the murder of its diplomats in Iraq?UPDATED 6/28

By Olivier Guitta

If confirmed, the murder of the four Russian diplomats taken hostage on June 3- three by beheading and the last one by shooting- by members of an Al Qaeda affiliate, may have important implications.
In fact, last week Russia had officially asked for the help of Palestinian terror group Hamas in this matter. The President of the Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee sent a letter to Hamas' political leader Khaled Mashal. Obviously this has not worked out.
Even though Russia has excellent relations with terror sponsor states in the region such as Syria and Iran, the Chechen isuue is still very much alive in the minds of Islamic terror groups who wish to help their Muslim brothers.
It will be interesting to see how Russia reacts to these murders. Indeed Russia has been known for dealing with sometimes excessive force to terrorists. And not only with Chechen rebels.
For example, in September 1985 when four Russian diplomats were kidnapped in Beirut by Hezbollah, the then USSR responded in kind by first abducting a family member of an Hezbollah leader and then killing him very very gruesomely. The hostages were given back right away and Russia was never targeted in Lebanon again.
Will Russia do the same today?

As suspected, Putin just gave the order to his special forces to hunt down and liquidate the killers of the four Russian diplomats.

Taliban losses in Afghanistan, gains in Pakistan

By Bill Roggio

The latest round of fighting in southeastern Afghanistan has claimed over 82 Taliban fighters in two separate engagements in Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces. Security Watchtower provides a breakdown of the estimated casualties of Taliban and Coalition forces in southeastern Afghanistan since the beginning of April. An estimated 600 Taliban have been killed and 22 captured, with 41 Afghan and Coalition security forces killed or wounded combined. The estimated Taliban casualties do not contain the number of wounded, which is often twice the number killed in combat.

Afghanistan UN Security Accessability Map (as of June 20, 2006).Click to view map, .PDF, approximately 1 Megabyte.

As the Coalition ramps up its forces and adds another 9,000 troops to the southeastern theater, the Taliban continues to take a pounding on the battlefield. The security situation in the region is fluid, but the Coalition is clearly gaining the upper hand as it moves forces and devotes energy into regions largely ignored by the central Afghan government. Coalition and Afghan sources estimate the Taliban strength between 2,000 to 5,000 active fighters, while the Taliban puts their strength at 12,000. Using the high Coalition estimate of 5,000 and an estimate of 1,800 Taliban killed and wounded, the Taliban has experienced a 36% attrition rate over the past three months. Using the Taliban estimate of 12,000 strong, the Taliban has experienced a 15% attrition rate. Both are frighteningly high numbers, and belie the reports of a sophisticated and powerful Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan.

To underscore this point, I sat in on a platoon level briefing prior to a Canadian assault earlier this month on the Dari and Panjwai districts in Kandahar province. Intelligence indicated the Taliban were massed in the hundreds, and possessed assault rifles, RPGs (rocket propelled grenades), mortars and other more sophisticated weaponry (I will omit the weapons for security purposes). The grunts of Charlie Company of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, mobile assault team and the tip of the spear for Canadian forces, laughed at the intelligence reports the Taliban possessed mortars and other weapons, as they have shown little inclination to bring these weapons to bear on the battlefield. Mortars are hardly sophisticated weapons, they are a staple weapon of platoon and company sized infantry units. That the Taliban cannot effectively deploy these weapons speaks volumes of their sophistication and training.

But the security situation in Afghanistan cannot be viewed in a vacuum; western Pakistan directly affects Afghanistan's stability. The Talibanization of western Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan has an impact of the situation in Afghanistan. The tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan are openly referred to as Talibanistan. Bajaur is a operational base and staging area into Afghanistan for mid-level al-Qaeda commanders, and senior al-Qaeda command (bin Laden and Zawahiri) are believed to be operating from nearby Dir.

“The Taliban’s sphere of influence has expanded to [the tribal agencies of] DI Khan [Dera Ismail Khan], Tank and the Khyber Agency, where clerks of the area have started to join them. There has been a sharp increase in attacks on heavily-defended military targets in these areas as well,” said Pakistani Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao last April. Coalition and Afghan commanders and government officials have openly stated the Taliban senior command are operating from the city of Quetta in Baluchistan, and have given the Pakistani government addresses of the location of senior Taliban leaders.

The Talibanization of western Pakistan continues. In a sign the Pakistani government is operating from a position of weakness, the government is proposing yet another ceasefire with the Taliban, while local Islamists bomb "a computer and a music centre" in Dir and a bazaar in Dera Ghazni Khan. Last week a suicide fuel truck bomb detonated in the Afghan province of Nangahar after crossing from Khyber agency in Pakistan.

It is no accident the most troubled provinces of Afghanistan reside on the border with Pakistan. The latest United Nations Afghanistan UN Security Accessibility Map (as of June 20, 2006) perfectly illustrates this point. The red & yellow band in Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Ghazni, Zabul and Paktika province is scene of Operation Mountain Thrust. The eastern Afghanistan provinces of Kunar, Nuristan and Nangarhar is in the American zone of operations, and the scene of the ongoing Operation Mountain Lion. And while the map appears dire at first glance, the United Nations, a risk adverse organization, considers the oranges zones as "representing a manageable level of risk with the application of more detailed and security measures." The UN considers a small fraction of Afghan territory as a "not accessible" or "no-go" zone.

Ayman al-Zawahari, al-Qaeda's second in command, recent videotapes underscores the al-Qaeda's position in western Pakistan. Far from living in a cave, Zawahiri has access to the daily news and Internet, as well as a production facility to make high quality video products. The tape where Zawahiri lashes out against Afghan President Hamid Karzai and calls for a general Afghan uprising against the Coalition clearly cites the May 26th accident in Kabul. The turnaround time between the incident and the release of the tape is about three weeks. Zawahiri clearly is confident in the security of his line of communications. His actions indicate he has nothing to fear from reprisal from the Pakistani military or intelligence units.

Reports of US Monitoring of SWIFT Transactions Are Not New: The Practice Has Been Known By Terrorism Financing Experts For Some Time

By Victor Comras

Yesterday’s New York Times Story on US monitoring of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) transactions certainly hit the street with a splash. It awoke the general public to the practice. In that sense, it was truly new news. But reports on US monitoring of SWIFT transactions have been out there for some time. The information was fairly well known by terrorism financing experts back in 2002. The UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Group , on which I served as the terrorism financing expert, learned of the practice during the course of our monitoring inquiries. The information was incorporated in our report to the UN Security Council in December 2002. That report is still available on the UN Website. Paragraph 31 of the report states:

“The settlement of international transactions is usually handled through correspondent banking relationships or large-value message and payment systems, such as the SWIFT, Fedwire or CHIPS systems in the United States of America. Such international clearance centres are critical to processing international banking transactions and are rich with payment information. The United States has begun to apply new monitoring techniques to spot and verify suspicious transactions. The Group recommends the adoption of similar mechanisms by other countries.”

Suggestions that SWIFT and other similar transactions should be monitored by investigative agencies dealing with terrorism, money laundering and other criminal activity have been out there for some time. An MIT paper discussed the pros and cons of such practices back in 1995. Canada’s Financial Intelligence Unit, FINTRAC,, for one, has acknowledged receiving information on Canadian origin SWIFT transactions since 2002. Of course, this info is provided by the banks themselves.

While monitoring SWIFT-handled transfers is a useful tool in identifying and tracking certain suspicious transactions, its importance should not be overstated. The information in SWIFT’s hands is no better than the information which it is provided by the banks handling the transactions at both ends. And there is already an obligation on banks in the US and Europe to report all “suspicious transactions” The problem is that FINCEN and the corresponding FIUS in other countries have simply been overwhelmed by the enormous amount of transactions that are reported to them (see my earlier blog) Another problem is that European Banks are just getting around to providing (and requiring) information, such as names, account numbers and addresses of originators and recipients of transactions channeled or handled by them through SWIFT or other international transfer facilitators (see my earlier blog). And most banks outside of Europe, the United States and other OECD countries, still do not require, or verify, such information.

The fact is that there is really very little privacy today when it comes to the international transfer of funds. That is why criminal networks, money launderers and terrorist groups have increasingly turned to Hawalas and cash couriers for such transactions.

U.S. Government Terrorist Financing Initiative Involving SWIFT (updated)

By Dennis Lormel

This morning, media reports disclosed the U.S. Government’s use of the SWIFT network in furtherance of its terrorist financing initiative. My initial reaction is one of pride and despair. As a former government official, I was involved in this program. On one hand, I’m proud of the notable work performed and what has been accomplished. On the other hand, I’m disappointed and concerned that the media felt compelled to run another story that undermines National Security in the fight on terrorism by disrupting and diminishing an important investigative tool.

By way of background, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) provides electronic messaging services that direct financial transactions worth trillions of dollars a day among around 7,800 financial institutions throughout the world. As detailed in the various media reports, the Treasury Department has been receiving SWIFT information since shortly after 9/11. Personally, I’m astounded that the program has remained confidential this long. It was an innovative and remarkable program. As custodian of the program, Treasury provided the SWIFT information to the CIA, who managed the program. The FBI, in conjunction with the CIA and Treasury, exploited financial information to thwart terrorists, exposing them to areas of financial vulnerability.

For my colleagues who have been skeptical of the U.S. Government’s efforts in terrorist financing, this program, the cooperation with other financial providers, such as First Data Corporation and Western Union, contributed significantly to the A- grade given the Government for Terrorist Financing by the 9/11 Commission. Many of the successes achieved in terrorist financing have not reached the public domain. The anonymity afforded, up until this point, has provided the interagency community the opportunity to continue to exploit terrorists through their financial vulnerabilities.

As more information becomes known and as subject matter experts and the media assess the program, they should not lose sight of the fact that the program was strictly monitored and audited. The field of information actually reviewed was quite minimal in comparison to the universe of SWIFT records that exist. SWIFT records were provided to the Treasury Department in accordance with Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) subpoenas. This initiative was operated in accordance to the law. Before rushing to judgment, critics should appreciate the level of scrutiny and accountability that was put in place to ensure SWIFT information was used solely for terrorist investigative purposes. In addition, assertions that the information reviewed did not lead to positive results would be wrong.

As this situation unfolds, the question should again be posed as to why the media felt compelled to publish a story that undermines National Security by exposing a viable investigative technique to terrorists. A productive and important investigative mechanism has been disrupted and greatly diminished. Once again, why is the media more seemingly concerned about the need to inform the American public about terrorist intelligence operations that involve public records than they are about the adverse impact the report has on National Security?

Not to end on a troubling note, its time to applaud the interagency community, in this case, particularly the Treasury Department, CIA and FBI for outstanding investigative initiative with respect to the execution of the SWIFT program. The interagency cooperation and team work was unwavering throughout the last five years. Many successes were quietly achieved by a group of true unsung heroes. Well done guys!

UPDATE: See statements by Treasury Secretary Snow and Under Secretary Levey - see webcast of their press conference

Initial Comments about Terrorist Financing and “The One Percent Doctrine”

By Dennis Lormel

Over the past few days, there have been numerous articles and reports about a newly released book entitled, The One Percent Doctrine, written by Ron Suskind. I have not had the opportunity to read the book yet but have read and listened to a variety of reports. Yesterday, my colleague, Andy Cochran, forwarded me an article from the Rocky Mountain News. This article concerning the book focused on First Data Corporation (FDC). Not having read the book, it’s difficult to gauge the book’s overall context regarding FDC. However, the context of the article is troubling and wrong. The events that took place were accurate. Unfortunately, the descriptions of what transpired during the events were inaccurate.

FDC, as with many financial sector firms, was extremely responsive to law enforcement in the aftermath of 9/11. In that same vein, companies in the financial sector did not turn a blind eye to Privacy and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) requirements as suggested in the article. At that time, I was in the FBI in a leadership role responsible for terrorist financing. Immediately after 9/11, we realized we had to develop financial investigative methodologies different than anything we had done before. We had to think outside the box by developing and implementing time sensitive and time urgent investigative techniques. To succeed, we needed the assistance of the financial community. At all times, we were cognizant of privacy rights and civil liberties.

There is a vast difference between fishing and sifting through financial records of millions of people and innovative and non-intrusive focused searches of financial records for specific information. This is one of the things I find troubling. The article assumes the prior. In actuality, the later took place. In addition, the suggestions that Congress was not briefed or the secret court (FISA Court) was circumvented were wrong. Congress was briefed in numerous forums about our investigative direction. In almost every instance, access to financial records was gained via Federal Grand Jury Subpoena and not the FISA process. In certain instances, National Security Letters were issued, but again, the standard practice was to gain financial information from financial providers via Federal Grand Jury Subpoena.

There was no “web of controversy” surrounding FDC’s cooperation. FDC consistently responded to legal process in furnishing financial records to law enforcement. In addition, the notion that the FBI was given uncontrolled or direct access to FDC records was wrong. Regardless of whether FBI and FDC personnel were co-located or not, FDC controlled FDC data.

The information provided by FDC was extremely beneficial to the FBI’s terrorist financing initiative. Time sensitive techniques that emerged from relationships such as the one between FDC and the FBI were critically important. Many terrorist financing investigative successes have not made it to the public domain for a variety of reasons.

FDC should be lauded for their willingness to cooperate and provide information in a more time sensitive manner than requests made prior to 9/11. In the pre 9/11 days, it often took 45 days or more for law enforcement to receive requested information from financial firms. With legal partnerships like the relationship with FDC, the FBI was able to receive certain data in about 45 minutes. There is a huge difference between 45 days and 45 minutes.

In driving home its theme, the Rocky Mountain News article attributes two quotes from the book to me. Both are overly melodramatic and out of context with comments I actually made. Concerning FDC, the line “we need to turn this company into a deadly weapon” is not a statement I would make. I certainly understood and valued the importance of the capabilities FDC possessed. I considered FDC a partner in the fight against terrorist financing. Concerning the excerpt from the book, the scene was a closed Congressional briefing. That was not the forum for an argumentative confrontation. The inference about FDC accessing and organizing information from around the world and my alleged comment “no one is supposed to know” are grossly out of context.

Companies like FDC are patriotic and true heroes. They came forward and offered their expertise and assistance. This was important in the establishment of short and long term investigative strategies. The combination of experienced law enforcement financial investigators and responsible executives from financial firms ensured the successful execution of this process. In all instances, Privacy and BSA considerations were paramount to establishing investigative methodologies. It would be unfortunate to leave the impression that law enforcement and/or the financial sector were cavalier or acted inappropriately or in disregard to the law. To the contrary, law enforcement and the financial sector forged a partnership that quietly and successfully exploits the financial vulnerabilities of terrorists.

Trouble in Pakistani Provinces Show Danger for the Future

By Douglas Farah

The news from Pakistan's border regions is getting worse, not better, and it seems unlikely that the new wave of attacks and recruitment are the result of Taliban desperation or lack of power.

The recent call by Zawahiri to residents of Kabul to rise up against the Americans is not so interesting for the text of the message, but it is interesting because it shows an ability to comment on recent events, and project a message in an area and at a time when such projections have a strong psychological impact.

Far from weakening, the Taliban and its remaining al Qaeda allies, operating often with the continued assistance of the Pakistani military and intelligence, are gaining strength. For the past year I and others have been forwarding the observations of those on the ground on how the Taliban has re-armed with new weapons, increased its communications capabilities-including encryption-and greatly enhanced its mobility by purchasing a new fleet of 4X4 vehicles. The Washington Post carried an intersting article on this again yesterday. My full blog is here.

Zawahiri Tape: Taliban exposes plans and concerns

By Walid Phares

Al Qaida number two, Dr Ayman Zawahiri issued a new tape calling on the Afghans to "rise against the Infidels (Kuffars) and their agents (the Karzai Government)." Following are few points of analysis and evaluation:

1) Attacking the US for its "killing of innocent Afghans and torture of Muslims."

وندد الظواهري في الشريط الذي بث على شبكة الإنترنت بمقتل مدنيين أفغانيين على يد جنود أميركيين في كابل يوم 29 مايو/أيار

الماضي. واعتبر أن ذلك الحادث سبقته "سلسلة طويلة من قتل الأبرياء والاعتداء في كابل وخوست وأورزغان وهلمند وقندهار وكونار،

Zawahiri develops two lines of attacks. One against Karzai by exposing what he calls "the US role in killing Afghan civilians in Kabul, Khust, Urzogan, Helmind, Kunar and Kandahar." The accusation by Zawahiri of these killings comes at a time when Karzai himself is complaining (and has been for a while) about "civilian losses" in the ongoing battles with Taliban and al Qaida fighters. The design by Zawahiri is to corner Karzai with his own words. As shown clearly from al Jazeera’s panels, the strategy of the Jihadi propaganda and policy architects is to corner Karzai with accusations by Taliban and supporters that he is covering up for these losses. The Afghan Government would be walking on fine lines between responding to Zawahiri, as Karzai did, but also criticizing US and allies for their “faulty tactics.” In the mind of the Jihadi architects of politics, attacking Zawahiri won’t have additional effects on anyone, but criticizing one’s allies will have an effect on all parties: The US, Karzai and the Afghani public.

Al-Qaida Publicists Angrily Reject Hoax Communique on U.S. Soldiers

By Evan Kohlmann

For some time, speculation has been rife about how various Al-Qaida affiliates and Iraqi insurgent groups manage to so precisely coordinate the distribution of their propaganda on Arabic-language Internet chat forums on a daily basis. Clearly, there is a logical intellect lurking behind the mysterious process, given that a virtually identical set of communiques and videos from Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, the Palestinian territories, and beyond are disseminated in a select group of highly credible forums nearly simulaneously. Recently, the brains behind this distribution network stepped forward from the shadows, and began to issue their own occasional statements--identifying themselves as the "Al-Fajr Media Center." It should be noted that, for some time, Al-Qaida and Mujahideen Shura Council communiques published on the Internet have been likewise consistently tagged with the watermark of the Al-Fajr Media Center.

This evening, the Al-Fajr Media Center issued a new statement concerning an erroneous communique published in Western media outlets and attributed to Al-Qaida concerning the brutal killing of two U.S. soldiers south of Baghdad. In its message, Al-Fajr angrily charged, "It should be noted that some of these news agencies--even though they know that the Al-Fajr Media Center is the exclusive publishing outlet for the Mujahideen Shura Council, Ansar al-Sunnah, and the As-Sahab [Foundation]" have printed stories about unauthenticated messages published by members of various forums "without any regard to the professional informational system" that was put in place by Al-Fajr. However, according to the latter, the failure of Western media agencies to follow that system simply "demonstrates the extent of the defeat of the crusader forces and their allies."

The implication here is that the purported Internet communique suggesting that the newly designated commander of Al-Qaida in Iraq Abu Hamza al-Muhajir personally beheaded two U.S. soldiers taken captive in Al-Yousifiyah--most notably published online on the debatably accurate Tajdeed.org.uk forum and *NOT* carried by any of Al-Fajr Media Center's preferred online distribution outlets--was a total hoax. This should serve as yet another reminder that the Tajdeed forum is a popular haven for spies and copycats and it should not alone be used as a reliable source for information about Al-Qaida. Even Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia recently publicly accused Tajdeed webmaster Mohammed al-Massari of providing information to British intelligence services.

France arrests a "very moderate" imam for terrorism financing EDITED 6- 22

By Olivier Guitta

In fact Dahou Meskine along sixteen other people were arrested on Monday and Tuesday for allegedly financing Islamic terrorism. The most probable organization that benefited from this money is the Algerian terrorist group GSPC.
In fact, investigators found out that hundreds of thousands of Euros were funneled through some organizations and corporations owned by Meskine and his son to dubious NGOs. Nonetheles one of the persons in charge of the investigation acknowledged today to daily Liberation that it will be tough to prove that this was done solely to finance terrorism.

But what's even more troubling is the pedigree of Meskine. He is of Tunisian descent, ex member of the Islamist group An Nahda, founder of the UOIF (the French branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). But he had a change of heart and cut off all ties to UOIF because they were too close for comfort to the Muslim Brotherhood. He had been pushing since for interreligious dialogue between Christians, Jews and Muslims. He had defended France's secularism when it came to the banning of the hijab at school and has been consulted many times by Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy on Muslim issues.
Finally he is the founder of the first private Muslim middle school and Secretary Genereal of the Council of Imams of France.

If allegations are correct, then the change of heart of the "very moderate" imam did not reallly occur and the taqqiya was total. That is why being on the lookout and reading between the lines is quite important. Fortunately, it looks like French authorities have been doing a tremendous job in dismantling terrorist cells.

Thanks to Jean Charles Brisard for the following additional info:
Meskine activities in France have largely been funded by Saudi institutions. As a matter of fact, his "confessional Success School" was financed by donations of at least 15,000 Euros made by the Al Haramain Foundation (SDGT). In addition, he received donations from the Muslim World League and was the official translator of Abdullah bin
Abdul-Mohsin Al-Turki, Secretary General of the Muslim World League during his French visit in October 2002.

Congress Voices Independence on Selected Terrorism Issues (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Several votes in the past week in Congress indicate that Members are becoming more independent on selected terrorism issues, especially with respect to Libya and Iran.

Yesterday, Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) successfully amended the FY 2007 appropriations bill for the State Department and other agencies to add language halting funding of normal relations with Libya, until Libya pays the entire settlement commitment of $10,000,000 to the surviving families of each decedent of the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing and promises to resolve outstanding terrorism cases. In 2002, Libya agreed to pay each family, but only 80 percent of that commitment was met prior to Libya's removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism on May 15. In a press release, Rep. Sweeney said, "The State Department should not fully establish diplomatic ties and all of the privileges that go along with that status until payment is complete and I am pleased that the committee agreed to take this important step.”

Rep. Sweeney didn't announce his amendment to the world before the vote. Had he done so, he might have met the same fate as his fellow Republlican, Sen. Rick Santorum (PA). Last week, Sen. Santorum thought he had the votes to attach a measuring imposing sanctions on Iran to a defense bill, but the State Department allied with an unusual bipartisan coalition to kill it. Sen. Santorum had 61 co-sponsors for his bill, but a last-minute letter from State (Acrobat file) turned Senators against him, at least for the time being. Considering that Iran continues to fund terrorist groups and build nuclear weapons capability while not responding to negotiation offers, many Senators might want to revisit the Santorum bill sooner rather than later.

Another bill which failed in the House would have forced lobbyists for state sponsors of terrorism to disclose their contacts with Congress. I don't understand why it didn't pass, and specifically why so many House Democrats voted against it. UPDATE: The bill was HR 5228, voted on just yesterday, and here is a copy (Acrobat file and tip to Richard).

US-EU Summit Leaders Take Positive Steps To Strengthen Cooperation For Combating Terrorism

By Victor Comras

Terrorism was one of the critical and overarching topics during President Bush’s June 21st meeting with EU leaders in Vienna. The EU-US Summit, and the numerous preparatory meetings that preceded it, have provided an important opportunity to assure that the US and Europe remain in lock-step in the war on terrorism. That has meant solidifying cooperation while seeking to resolve or mitigate important differences. The major EU complaint has been Europe’s perception that the US has sacrificed important privacy and human rights principles in its quest for security. This has led European leaders, including EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana, to publicly call on the US to close down Guantanamo as a terrorist holding facility.

For its part, the US wants to stop the squabbling with Europe on peripheral counter-terrorism issues and to show the world a common US-EU stance when it comes to combating terrorism. The Declaration issued at the close of the meeting goes a long way in achieving this objective. In this regard the Summit participants also declared their interest in a possible new tripartite cooperation agreement (in the field of justice and home affairs) between the EU, the Russian Federation and the United States to combat terrorism. Also important is the group's new commitment “to agree without delay on a Comprehensive UN Convention on International Terrorism and on a universally accepted definition of terrorism, and {to} work with others towards a targeted UN strategy on combating terrorism.” The absence of a universal definition of terrorism has significantly hampered efforts to impose international obligations to cut off support for terrorist groups and to curb terrorism financing.(see my earlier blog). Moving ahead now on such a treaty, and definition, will place new increased pressure on the OIC and its members to agree to the draft definition developed by UN Sixth Committee negotiators. It will also mitigate the effect of their non participation.

The Vienna Summit Declaration up front stresses a common commitment on the part of the EU and the US to “ ensure that measures taken to combat terrorism comply fully {with} international obligations, including human rights law, refugee law and international humanitarian law.” But it also pledges that “We will step up our cooperation against terrorism, including through denying resources (financing, travel and other material support) and shelter to terrorists, and we will coordinate efforts to prevent a new generation of recruits from emerging by countering radicalization and recruitment….” Special attention is given to the need to tighten up border security, coordinate the implementation of biometric standards, and to develop and better utilize international measures to identify and block terrorism financing. This includes upgrading FTAF and developing improved procedures for information sharing. It also means undertaking more pro-active financial investigations to implement FATF’s Special Recommendations. The need to curb illicit cash transfers also gets special mention.

Another interesting new initiatives is the agreement to enhance cooperation and information between Eurojust and the US Justice Department and other relevant police and investigative agencies. Eurojust was established by the EU in 2002 to enhance cross border cooperation between its member state’s police, investigative and judicial authorities. Eurojust also brings together investigators and prosecutors from different states dealing with specific cases to develop investigative strategy and share information. Unfortunately, Eurojust still has a way to go to fulfill these objectives (see my earlier blog). Among the positive steps also are new commitments to move forward with stalled EU-U.S. Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty and Extradition Agreements. The Declaration expresses the hope that these will be brought into force as soon as possible.

Of course one must await the actions that follow the words to determine the real success of the June 21st US-EU Summit. But, from this point at least we can say they got the words right.

Daily Standard: Passing on Zarqawi

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Today the final of three articles that I wrote about Zarqawi's death has been published at the Daily Standard. Co-written with my colleague Adam White, "Passing on Zarqawi" examines the administration's decision not to attack Zarqawi's operations back in 2002. An excerpt:

BUT TO SUGGEST that it was a no-brainer for the U.S. to attack northern Iraq in 2002 ignores a couple of key considerations. If the administration had struck Zarqawi then, it would have met a torrent of criticism for allegedly violating international law--criticism that could have interfered with its diplomatic efforts preceding the 2003 invasion.

In 2002, Zarqawi's base in Iraq was located in the northern No-Fly Zone, a region above the 36th parallel which a U.S.-led coalition prevented Iraqi aircraft and ground forces from entering. The U.S., France, and Britain established that NFZ in April 1991, following the ceasefire that ended the Gulf War, in order to protect the inhabitants of northern Iraq from violence at the hands of Saddam's regime. (A second NFZ was established later, south of Baghdad.) The coalition cited as justification four Iraq-related U.N. Security Council Resolutions: Resolution 678 (authorizing the coalition to use "all necessary means to uphold and implement" the previous Kuwait-protection resolution"), Resolutions 686 and 687 (outlining the postwar ceasefire), and Resolution 688 (responding to "the repression of the Iraqi civilian population"). But none of these resolutions specifically provided for a NFZ.

The lack of specific authorization for a NFZ resulted in critics on both the left (such as the New York Times editorial page) and the right (such as conservative national security law scholar Scott Silliman). Throughout the 1990s, the Clinton administration maintained this controversial legal position by operating under rules of engagement that circumscribed its efforts in the northern NFZ to prevent the Iraqi government from oppressing its people or targeting coalition personnel and resources.

But in the run-up to the 2003 war, the NFZs came under even heavier criticism. Critics suspicious of the Bush administration's plans argued that the administration would use heightened engagement in the NFZs as a pretext for war.

The whole article can be found here.

Kabul to Qalat

By Bill Roggio

Haji, our Afghan driver and guide. Click to view.

After arriving back in Kabul on a U.S. Air Force military C-130 transport from Kandahar, I met up with my friend Tim Lynch, the Afghanistan country manager for World Security Initiatives, a private contracting firm. WSI is located off of Jalalabad road, the main artery between Kabul and the eastern city of Jalalabad. The road is a rough ride and heavily populated with construction companies. Like most places in Afghanistan, the ride is always adventurous.

Tim had some business to conduct in the city of Qalat, so I tagged along for the ride. Qalat is the provincial capital of Zabul, and lies about 300 miles south of Kabul, 125 miles northeast of Kandahar. The Kabul-Kandahar road is a well paved two lane highway that runs though the wide plains between two mountain ranges. This is the same plain the armies of Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, and the British Empire marched to Kabul during their conquests of Afghanistan.

The valley region from Kabul to Kandahar is a hot, arid plain seeded with small farming villages along the wadis as the farmers seek to maximize their access to the scarce water. Green bursts pop up in the desert, and farmers grow almonds, dates, grapes and a host of fruits and vegetables. Golden wheat fields edge the highway, and shepherds guide their flocks of sheep, oxen, goats mules and camels seemingly into the middle of nowhere. The terrain provides perfect cover for the Taliban.

ANP or Taliban? Click to download video. 4.0 Megabytes in .WMV format. Pajamas Media has the full 2:55 video in Quicktime format.

Zabul is considered a successful example of nation building in southeastern Afghanistan. During a briefing from a senior Coalition officer on the state of the four southeastern provinces of Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul and Helmand provinces, Zabul has been rated as the most advanced province as American forces have concentrated significant resources in the security, economic and political realms. An indicator of the success in Zabul can be seen in the targets the Taliban chooses: the police outposts have been the main focus of Taliban efforts, and the Taliban rarely attacks Afghan National Army or U.S. Military units in the region.

A segment of the Kabul-Kandahar road in Zabul province near the town of Shajoy (Shah Juy on the map, .PDF file) is known as Ambush Alley. The Taliban have been focusing their efforts on this stretch of road, and it provides perfect cover for ambushes due to the low rolling hillsides closely situated next to the road. A burned out police outpost and several destroyed buses are visible along Ambush Alley, and several police outposts have been attacked over the past few months.

Knowing the dangers involved in the drive from Kabul to Qalat, Tim decided to take the risk and drive down in a convoy of one vehicle. He needed to get his personnel to Qalat and had intended to drive down in a convoy last week, but problems occurred and the personnel was not in country for the move. Driving in a single vehicle gave us the advantage of anonymity, as large convoys are easily spotted and make for large targets. But driving alone entails the risk of not having backup in case of attack.

Old British castle at Qalat is now an ANA base. Click to view.

We armed ourselves with automatic weapons and chose the armored 4x4 Toyota pickup with red markings. The Toyota pickups are virtually everywhere in the Middle East and Central Asia, and because of this provides a level of camouflage. Haji, our Afghani driver who fought the Soviets with the Mujahideen, weaved through the rough rodes and chaotic early morning traffic in Kabul, then gunned it on the open road to Qalat. Haji is unmatched in his mastery of the Afghan roads, passing convoys of jingle trucks, farming vehicles, taxis, military convoys and local traffic. The 300 mile drive to Qalat took less than four hours, not bad on a two lane highway that weaves through mountains and towns. Along the road we passed the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Ghazni, several Afghan National Army bases and numerous police outposts and checkpoints. We also encountered several U.S. Army and Afghan National Army patrols. Tim noted this is a marked increase in a security presence over the past few months.

The drive to Qalat was uneventful, save the appearance of a suspicious red land cruiser parked on the side of the road with a man outside carrying a weapon, accompanied by another man with a weapon on a motorcycle. Haji indicated these were Taliban, and Tim agreed. We passed without incident. After dropping off the passenger at the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Qalat, we turned around and headed back to Kabul. Here's where things got a little interesting.

As we arrived near the town of Shajoy, we encountered four armed men on motorcycles. Haji immediately identified them as Taliban, and Tim thought so as well. While they were wearing olive uniforms with Afghan National Police patches on the sleeve, Tim noted their weapons and motorcycles were not police issue. The armed motorcyclists weaved in and out of traffic. Haji blew past the bikers and further up the road we encountered a U.S. Army patrol of four Hummers on the side of the road. We pulled over, Tim explained what we saw to the Army captain, and the four bikers passed us by as we sat on the side of the road. The captain ordered his soldiers to mount up.

We followed the Army patrol and quickly caught up with the bikers (they were driving low powered dirt bikes). The bikers intermingled with the Army patrol without incident, and eventually pulled off the road. The encounter highlights the often murky nature of the war in Afghanistan. While we and the Army captain suspected the motorcyclists were Taliban, without provocation or a method to communicate on the fly to confirm their identity, the troops had to let them go. The soldiers chose to follow the rules of engagement. Opening fire on the bikers without positive identification could have caused the deaths of Afghan police and created animosity between the Afghan and Coalition security forces. Allowing potential Taliban to flee may allow them to kill Afghan civilians or Coalition security forces in the future. Welcome to the wild, wild west of eastern Afghanistan.

Please support this and future embeds by donating to the Counterterrorism Foundation.

Media Falls for Apparent Al-Qaida Hoax Message

By Evan Kohlmann

This morning, various media outlets began reporting that Al-Qaida had issued a statement claiming that newly designated Al-Qaida commander in Iraq Abu Hamza al-Muhajir had personally executed two U.S. soldiers kidnapped from a traffic checkpoint in Al-Yousifiya several days ago. That statement gained credibility when the U.S. military found the bodies of the two men, apparently mutilated as described in the online claim. There are two key points that must be made regarding this would-be Al-Qaida document:

1.) It is indeed true that yesterday (June 19) the Al-Qaida umbrella group known as the Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC) claimed responsibility for kidnapping the two U.S. soldiers in an authenticated statement released through typical Al-Qaida Internet channels. No other significant insurgent group has issued a similar claim, and the MSC has a fairly consistent track record of only claiming operations it is actually responsible for. Thus, it is almost certain that the two men were taken captive by, or rendered over to the custody of Al-Qaida-linked operatives.
2.) As of 6 p.m. eastern time (U.S.), no credible statement has been issued by either Al-Qaida or the MSC on any authenticated online distribution site regarding the killing of the two U.S. soldiers. The aberrant statement that was posted on the Internet today was *NOT* released by Al-Qaida or its propaganda team, and it must be treated as a hoax until there is some additional corrobative proof.

EU Will Move Ahead With Direct Aid to Palestinians Without Funding Hamas

By Victor Comras

The so-called Quad -- The UN, US, EU and Russia, agreed last month to find ways to provide direct aid to the Palestinian people while maintaining a tight freeze on funds for Hamas. (see my earlier Blog). Details of the plan have now been worked out and were announced at the EU June 16th Summit.

The program will commence in early July using the Emergency Services Support Programme (ESSP) of the World Bank to provide essential supplies in the health sector to Palestinian hospitals and clinics. This will be supplemented by direct allowances to Palestinian health care sector employees from the EU budget. The program will also engage the EU's Commission's Interim Emergency Relief Contribution (IERC) program to ensure an uninterrupted supply of essential utilities such as fuel to the Palestinian territory. A Needs Based Allowance Programme will also be developed that will make payments direct to individual bank accounts as required to maintain critical social services. The program supposedly also includes measures to assure strict controls and full accountability and transparency.

When the Hamas-led PA government came to power, the EU suspended direct aid to or through the Palestinian Authority. Nevertheless, some 154 million Euros have been made available since the beginning of 2006 to support humanitarian and other programs in the Palestinian territories. This includes 64 million Euro channeled through the UN Relief and Works Agency, 40 million Euro to ensure uninterrupted power supplies; and 34 million Euro for humanitarian aid. The new program will allot some 100 Million Euro to handle emergency medical needs and assure an energy supply for the territories. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner flew to Israel yesterday to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and senior Israeli officials to work the arrangements. Israel has already signaled its willingness to see the assistance go forward. Mark Regev, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said: "Israel is receptive to assistance that will bypass the Hamas-led government, giving it neither legitimacy nor recognition. No one on our side has an interest in seeing hardship in the Palestinian territories."

The US has already begun to provide similar assistance, although on a more modest scale. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced May 9th that the United States was moving ahead with $10 million in emergency aid for medicine and related supplies. The delivery of the first $4 million took place on May 10th with the delivery of truckloads of emergency medical supplies for NGO-run clinics in Gaza. The remaining $6 million will be used for emergency medicine and equipment which will be delivered by UNICEF, and a specified USAID grantee.

While Hamas is apparently feeling the pressure from reduced US/EU funding for the Palestinian Government, they have sought ways to circumvent the freeze on their funds. Last week Hamas reported smuggled in some $22 million in cash that it claims were from private donations and Islamic Charities. Saudi Arabia is also believed to be providing funding directly to Hamas. Some of these funds were distributed to Palestinian government workers yesterday. Each worker reported received $100.00 in back pay. The payments were made from Post Office accounts rather than from commercial banks. Hamas reportedly needs some $130 million per month to cover salaries and other fixed government costs.

President Abbas has threatened to act to curtail further Hamas cross border cash transfers, but is probably powerless to stop such activity. He has reportedly ordered Palestinian commercial banks to refuse deposist or transfers of cash brought into Gaza by Hamas.

Lets hope that keeping the pressure on Hamas will result in agreement with Fatah that a “two state” solution is the only viable option for Palestinians.

Charles Taylor Arrives in the Hague

By Douglas Farah

Charles Taylor, former president of Liberia accused of systematic and massive crimes against humanity, has arrived in the Hague to stand trial for his atrocities. He will likely be staying at the Milosevic suite, but perhaps will stay alive through the trial.

The trip from Freetown, Sierra Leone, where the charges against him were lodged by the U.N.-back Special Court for Sierra Leone, marks the end of one phase of the saga that saw Taylor flee Liberia, receive asylum in Nigeria, attempt an escape and then be held under shaky security in Sierra Leone.

The Special Court will still conduct the trial, not the ICC. The ICC is simply lending its secure facilities to hold Taylor who, after all, escaped from a U.S. prison in Massachusetts before starting his murderous exploits in Africa that plunged an entire region into chaos.

A friend of Hezbollah, al Qaeda, Viktor Bout and other terrorist and criminal organizations, Taylor presided over wars and conflicts that devastated an entire region, and cost hundreds of thousands of lives. He enjoyed the friendship and complicity of Gadaffi in Libya, Compaore in Burkina Faso and several other heads of state. He befriended Pat Robertson, Jesse Jackson and others across the Christian spectrum with his ability to appear to be a simple Baptist minister. My full blog is here.

Financial Regulators Seek Increased Recordkeeping for Funds Transfers

By Andrew Cochran

Last Friday the Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) asked for public comments on a proposed rule which would require financial institutions to increase recordkeeping requirements for funds transfers. The recordkeeping requirement was established in the Bank Secrecy Act, as amended by the Annunzio-Wylie Anti-Money Laundering Act of 1992, and doesn't require reporting of the transfers to federal regulators. The current threshhold for maintaining records is $3,000, set back in 1995; the proposed rule would lower it to $1,000, in accordance with recommendations by the international Financial Action Task Force to prevent terrorist financing or money laundering, or perhaps eliminate the floor altogether.

As with all BSA regulations, this one balances a cost burden on business with a law enforcement justification. I've discussed these issues here and here recently. The regulators have asked both sides to prove their assertions with case information. The rule would increase concerns in the industry and in Congress that BSA compliance is overly burdensome for small money service businesses (MSBs), leading the banks which service them to increasingly drop them as clients. The proposed rule discusses law enforcement's side also (Acrobat file). The entire issue will be the subject of a hearing tomorrow at the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, at which a FinCEN official will testify. Here's an excerpt from the section citing law enforcement concerns:

Representatives from the United States Drug Enforcement Administration, the State of Arizona, the Puerto Rico High Intensity Financial Crime Area, the Office of the New York State Attorney General, and the civil and criminal investigatory functions of the Internal Revenue Service have all indicated that the additional information collected as a result of lowering or eliminating the threshold would prove beneficial to investigations of money laundering, terrorist financing, and other financial crime. These representatives of law enforcement have indicated that lowering or eliminating the threshold would promote the disruption of illegal activity and make illegal activity more expensive for perpetrators by forcing them to use costlier alternative means of transferring funds to avoid higher risks of detection for funds transfers and transmittals of funds beneath the current threshold. Law enforcement has stated that criminals are aware of the current threshold and conduct transactions in amounts under the threshold to avoid providing identification.

Daily Standard: Making Victory Rhyme with Defeat

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Today I have an article in the Daily Standard, cowritten with my colleague Richard Miniter, debunking the three biggest media myths surrouding the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi: that he was an "American creation"; that he was easily replaceable; and that American soldiers allegedly committed atrocities against a dying Zarqawi.

Here's our take on the argument that Zarqawi was a U.S. creation:

The day after Zarqawi's death, London's Daily Mail noted: "The great irony of the rise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is that it was the United States who helped make him so infamous. . . . [T]hanks to the West's desire to put a face to an ideology they could not understand, his name was automatically linked to almost every outrage perpetrated in Iraq."

This theme was also sounded in the American press. Newsweek found, "Zarqawi's infamy was, at least to some degree, a creation of the U.S. government, whose spokesmen seized on him as the visible face of Al Qaeda in Iraq--and living proof that the war in Iraq was the main battlefield in the grander global war on terror."

But Zarqawi was a figure the U.S. government stumbled upon, rather than raised up. A lone State Department official noticed an NSA intercept of a phone call from Zarqawi, who was in Iraq, to one of the assassins of USAID diplomat Lawrence Foley. (Foley was murdered in his driveway in Amman, Jordan in 2002). Zarqawi was congratulating the killer. The official, whom we have interviewed, said he then began to wonder who Zarqawi was. (The NSA wasn't tracking Zarqawi at the time, but was tracing those who phoned the assassins to find out if there was a new group targeting diplomats. There was: Zarqawi's.) Then he noticed that Zarqawi was an al Qaeda operative and that he made the phone call from Iraq--more than a year before the Iraq war began.

The point is that Zarqawi, based in Iraq, had ordered the death of U.S. officials while he was essentially unknown to the American intelligence community. The State Department official forwarded the NSA intercept to a number of others at State and Defense. Later, he learned that his email was used by senior Defense Department officials to champion the idea that Zarqawi deserved a prominent place in U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's U.N. address.

Following the Powell speech, Zarqawi was all but forgotten by U.S. officials. Ambassador Paul L. Bremer's exhaustive memoir My Year in Iraq contains only nine stray references to Zarqawi, and virtually all of them are merely citations of news reports. During a discussion with Bremer about the insurgency in November 2003, he talked extensively about Syrian and Iranian involvement, but did not mention Zarqawi.

It was Zarqawi's repeated and spectacular attacks against allied forces in Iraq, culminating in his May 2004 beheading of Nicholas Berg, that seized the Bush administration's attention.

Rewarded with the media spotlight, Zarqawi committed more atrocities, beheading Eugene Armstrong and Ken Bigley. If anything, it was the American media's sustained coverage of Zarqawi's butchery that made him an international figure--not the Bush administration.

You can read the whole article here.

Internet Security Team Finds Jihadist Website Related to Zarqawi's "Successor"

By Andrew Cochran

Jim Melnick is director of threat intelligence for iDefense, the security intelligence arm of VeriSign, Inc., which operates the systems that manage the ".com" and ".net" domains. (Note: VeriSign is a client of GAGE LLC, the consulting firm where I am a Vice President). Jim provided excellent intel for us when Muslim hackers were targeting Danish and other Western websites during the "cartoon jihad." He has the following report from iDefense's Weekly Threat Report on a jihadist website that his team recently discovered (and e-mail addresses for further information):

"One of our analysts, Andretta Summerville, in researching and assessing post-Zarqawi developments in Al Qaeda in Iraq and especially the Internet side of things, has come up with what I think is a unique insight into a website that is a play off the same root name as the name of Zarqawi's successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, or "Muhajir" (or "Mohajir"), which means "emigrant." Andretta found a site that is similar to Muhajir's name in its Arabic derivation but which is called Mohajroon.com. The site does not deal with Islamic notions of emigration or refugees but rather foreign fighters (jihadists) and hacking issues. It is not a brand-new site but we found it to be quite interesting and are speculating that, following Zarqawi's death, many pro-jihadists and pro-terrorists worldwide who might now be seeking to link up with Al Qaeda in Iraq or similar groups might do searches in Arabic on Mujahir's name and find this site.

This website contains forums with a mix of threads covering items from the latest information on the militants in the Middle East, such as a video of militants in Syria, to hacker education, such as Microsoft Word documents available for downloading that detail CGI, unicode and php exploits. The members appear to be interested in physical and cyber-related threats. The membership of the site is growing and is already over 10,000+ members. Plus, we at iDefense/VeriSign are very interested to see what hacking issues or levels of cyber expertise may be covered on this site. We are still assessing that. Registration information for the website is given as Dubai, UAE, though it actually appears to be hosted by a company in Utah! Here is a graphic of the hit counter; within a recent two-day span. membership jumped from 9,939 to 10,130 and continues to increase:

For more information about mohajroon.com, you can contact Andretta directly at: asummerville@idefense.com. For persons wanting to know how to obtain a copy of the full Weekly Threat Report, they can contact Andy DiFazio at: adifazio@idefense.com."

Further preparation in the Gulf for potential war

By Olivier Guitta

Less than a month ago I posted on the military preparation going on in the Gulf.
Additional elements are pointing towards the seriousness of the preparation in place. For instance Qatar helped by the IAEA and Western nuclear powers is putting in place a defense plan against nuclear radiations.
Also Assafir reported that Gulf monarchies just finished preparing an emergency plan in case of a blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, which Iran has threatened to block. The Gulf Countries Transportation Ministers have signed on the plan which consists in using alternate ports for mostly oil transport.

Finally most Arab countries are furious about the very close rapprochement between Iran and Syria. In fact, just a few days ago, the Defense Ministers of these two countries inked a military agreement to protect themselves against " US and Zionist threats". This agreement entails that if one of the two is attacked then the other one will come to the rescue.

Skies are definetely getting darker again in that region...

The World Food Program and Abu Bakar Ba'asyir's MMI: The Need for Due Diligence

By Zachary Abuza

The World Food Program’s (WFP) relief efforts following the 27 May magnitude 6.2 earthquake in Central Java, Indonesia, is now mired in scandal. The WFP, active in Indonesia’s tsunami hit province of Aceh, moved in quickly to Central Java following earthquake that killed more than 6,000 people, wounded 78,000, and destroyed some 200,000 houses, leaving up to 1.5 million people homeless.

Yet one of the WFP’s eight partner organizations that was selected to distribute 95 tons of food on the ground, was no other than Abu Bakar Ba’asyir’s Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI). The MMI is an overt and legal organization, but many of its leaders were concurrently leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), and the MMI continues to push JI’s agenda. Indonesian courts identified Ba’asyir as being the spiritual head - or amir - of JI. Since the 26 December 2004 tsunami, JI has used charitable works as one of the key ways to revive their organizations hurt by the crackdown on terrorism. The MMI and JI-linked Laskar Jundullah were both active in tsunami relief.

The Australian government immediately protested the MMI’s contract with the WFP, but the WFP spokesman Barry Came said, "We don't pick groups to distribute aid based on their religious or political beliefs. We choose based on the ability to deliver, and so far they've performed up to standard. We have no complaints." According to a 14 June AP report, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir will personally deliver aid.

Under growing international pressure, the WFP canceled the MMI’s contract to deliver aid on 15 June. The MMI called the WFP's decision, "racist."

The 27 May earthquake was an enormous humanitarian catastrophe, and one that has received scant attention from the donor community. The UN appealed for a $103 million six-month emergency relief fund, but as of 1 June under $22 million had been pledged. The WFP’s $5.36 million program is important, but it should not go to organizations with clear and identifiable links to terrorist entities. International organizations and NGOs have a responsibility to do due diligence on their partners. Ba’asyir was designated by the US Department of the Treasury on 13 April 2006 and is also proscribed under the UN's 1267 list. Technically it is illegal for Ba’asyir or any organization connected to him to raise money.

“Flow of Terror Funds Being Choked, U.S. Says:” -- A Skeptic Responds

By Victor Comras

“Flow of terror funds being choked, US Says” reads the headlines of a June 18th USA today article based on statements of US treasury officials. I wish that it were so, but I am quite dubious.

The article cites a letter from Ayman al Zawahri to Zarqawi asking for $100,000. "Many of the lines (of support) have been cut off," Zawahri purportedly complains. While the funds flowing to Zawahri, somewhere in the mountains of Eastern Afghanistan, may be harder to come by, there is really little indication that al Qaeda and Salafist terrorist organizations generally, are hard up for cash. In fact, there are many indications to the contrary. The pace of terrorist activity around the world continues unabated. The insurgencies in both Iraq and Afghanistan remain strong and are reportedly flush with cash --That may be one of the reasons Zawahri was trying to hit up Zarqawi for additional funds. While we have identified several of al Qaeda’s deep pocket donors, sanctions against these individuals have been minimal and have had relatively little impact on their activities. Such known terrorist financiers such as Youssef Nada, Ahmed Idriss Nasreddin, Yasim al-Kada, Wa’el Hamza Julidan, and others continue, directly or through family and colleagues, to operate major international business networks. It is difficult to see why such meager actions against these financiers will deter other deep pocket terrorist group supporters, as the USAToday quotes US officials as claiming.

The flow of funds to terrorist groups from certain charities also continues almost unabated. This is particularly the case for groups such as Hamas and Hizbollah. In fact the flow of funds to these organizations still has the approval of a great number of countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. And expanding use of the internet by terrorist organizations to solicit funds from their supporters remains a very serious, and little addressed, concern.

In a companion piece, USA today also reports a GAO finding that the international financial community has been slow to focus on the issue of cash movements financing terrorism. In late 2004, an international money-laundering task force urged nations to step up monitoring of cross-border cash transportation and establish sanctions against those who make false declarations, but little new, in fact, is being done to trace or stop such cash transactions.

Curtailing terrorism financing is certainly not an easy task. It has proved so difficult to prosecute cases against suspected terrorism financiers, to freeze or seize their assets, or to trace the flow of terrorism funds. A recent book by former CIA analyst John Cassara highlights many of these problems That’s not to say that we have not had any important successes. We have. But, this must be a constant and unremitting effort, and claims of victory in curtailing terrorism financing are still very premature.

Jihadists Targetting Africa

By Douglas Farah

A recent article in Sada al-Jihad (Echo of Jihad), an on-line magazine supporting global jihad, outlines al Qaeda's growing interest in exanding into sub-Saharan Africa. The Project for the Research of Islamic Movements (PRISM) translated some of the June 2006 article by Abu Azzam al-Ansari, titled "Al Qaeda Moving to Africa," and published in the magazine's June issue, the seventh time the magazine has appeared.

The author clearly states the advantages Africa offers global mujahadeen in their struggle. Among the primary ones named are:
1) The broad weakness of the governments and corruption, making it easier to operate in Africa than "in other countries which have effective security, intelligence and military capacities;
2) The number of people with significant combat experience that can be recruited there; a large Muslim community;
3) The poverty and social conditions "will enable the mujahadeen to provide some finance and welfare, thus, posting there some of their influential operatives;
4) The availability of cheap weapons in many parts of the continent;
5) The richness of Africa in oil and raw materials. (Diamonds, anyone?)

My full blog is here.

Unprecedented Terrorist Bombings in Southern Thailand

By Zachary Abuza

Thailand has been wracked by four consecutive days of bombings in its troubled south. On 16 June, 50 bombs were detonated across the three Muslim-dominated southern provinces of Thailand (12 in Yala, 18 in Pattani and 20 in Narathiwat). Two days later, another 12 bombs were detonated and at least 10 more were defused. The bombs, for the most part have been small IEDs left in public places; several have been in the 5-10 kilogram range.

While insurgents have been stepping up their coordinated attacks, and the bombs were relatively small, coordinated attacks of this magnitude are unprecedented. Though the death toll has beens quite low, under 10 were killed in the bombings, they belie the technical sophistication and organzational capacity of the militants. This show of force is a stunning rebuke to the Thai security forces.

One of Sunday's 12 bombs was a 10kg roadside IED that was detonated as a police patrol passed by; four police and two civilians were wounded. A second roadside IED wounded six police, one seriously. Another attack, on a hotel in Yala, killed one, and wounded many others.

Several of the bombs were detonated by remote control, while several more were detonated by cellular phones. In November 2005, the Thai government blocked all unregistered prepaid mobile phones in an attempt to curb the spate of bombings. Insurgents have stepped up the theft of mobile phones and in some areas have used Malaysian SIM cards. They have been experimenting with other detonator technology, such as infrared devices.

In addition to the bombings, militants have continued their campaign of targetted assassinations. Two high profile Muslim politicians were killed over the weekend.

New Chart: "Remaining Al-Qaida Leadership Figures in Iraq"

By Evan Kohlmann

Remaining Al-Qaida in Iraq leadership figures.

Care of Globalterroralert.com and the Nine Eleven Finding Answers (NEFA) Foundation, a new chart is available for download highlighting remaining Al-Qaida leadership figures thought active in Iraq following the death last week of Al-Qaida's former top leader in the region, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Click to download chart

See also - Newsweek - "Iraq: Zarqawi's Successor."

Observations from Southeastern Afghanistan

By Bill Roggio

Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club and I discussed the recent Coalition offensives against the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan's involvement with the Taliban. The podcast is available at Pajamas Media.

Also, I'll be on the radio twice on Monday, June 19th:

10:30am Mountain / 12:30pm Eastern with Rob Breakenridge in Calgary, Alberta. To listen online visit AM 770 CHQR and click LISTEN LIVE.
4:20pm Pacific / 7:20pm Eastern with Mike Reagan. Click this link to listen online.

Here are some personal observations, from Kandahar, which are supported by numerous discussions with senior officers and the foot soldiers:

Afghan police "on duty" at Patrol Base Wilson in Zari District. Click image to view.

- Pakistan's lawless tribal belts are a major source of Taliban support, including indoctrinating, funding, arming and training Pakistani and Afghan Taliban recruits. The Afghans I spoke to curse Pakistan for allowing this to happen. The porous situation on the Afghan-Pakistan border is a national security issue for Afghanistan, and the international community as al-Qaeda is operating training camps within the Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan.

- The Taliban is unable to stand up against the Western militaries when they attempt to mass in large formations (100 to 300 fighters, equivalent to company or battalion sized units). Their advantage is they know the local terrain far better than the Coalition forces. The solution is to get the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police trained, equipped and on the front lines in southeastern Afghanistan.

- The levels of effectiveness of the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police varies from unit to unit. The Canadian soldiers trust the army units, but are very wary of police units. Corruption is a major problem with local police formations, as is drug usage (this is also a problem within the Taliban). The ANA and ANP are often poorly armed and trained. But to a man, the Canadian soldiers are impressed with their enthusiasm and courage once a fight breaks out. "Once the bullets fly, these guys are solid. They bring everything they got and never shy away from a fight," one Canadian officer said. The Candians stated the Afghan security forces do not like plan operations but want to immediately make contact with the Taliban. The Canadians often have to restrain the Afghans from leaving the gates without planning an operation. Over enthusiasm is often a weakness in conducting military operations.

- The Taliban's weapons are not as sophisticated as the media reports would lead you to believe. Their primary weapons are AK-47 assault rifles and RPG-7s (the old variant of the RPG). Rarely are mortars brought to bear on the battlefield. Reports of the Taliban possessing recoilless rifles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles have yet to materialize. Roadside bombs (IEDs), while a threat, have yet to reach either the sophistication or intensity in deployment as they have in Iraq.

- The strength of the Taliban lies in their ability to blend in with the local population, and intimidate or coerce the local population when they must. There are small pockets of Taliban safe havens in southeastern Afghanistan. The increase in airstrikes is related to striking at targets of opportunity and the increased operational tempo to weaken the Taliban prior to ISAF (the International Security Assistance Force, the NATO mission) takes command of the region by the end of the summer.

- The poppy fields provide a major source of income for the farmers in southeastern Afghanistan. The Coalition and Afghan government made a serous mistake in its implementation of a poppy crop eradication program without providing an alternate source of income. The destruction of crops turned the local population to seek protection from the Taliban. A senior coalition officer indicated a major shift in the policy dealing with the poppy crops is in the works. The intricate relationship between security, economic, political and social aspects of a counterinsurgency operation are in full view in southeastern Afghanistan. While poppy production is viewed as a national security problem by Western governments, this is a critical part of the social and economic fabric of the region. Great care must be taken to address the issue, lest the Coalition continue to alienate the local population and drive farmers and harvesters into the sphere of the Taliban. Alternate crops may provide a solution, however the poppies are easy to grow and provide the highest cash output for available crops.

Indonesian national captured in south Thailand

By Kenneth Conboy

Thai police arrested Indonesian national Sabri Amiruddin, 31, on 16 June during a massive crackdown following the 15 June wave of bombings in south Thailand. He was arrested in Narathiwat province with a kilo of urea fertilizer and two kilos of nails in his possession. Sabri hails from the Indonesian island of Sumatra, though it was not yet known if he was associated with separatists in Aceh (also on Sumatra).

It should be noted that there has long been a nexus between southern Thai extremists and Aceh separatists. Firearms with Thai military stamps have been recovered in Aceh; in addition, high explosives obtained after Thai radicals raided government arsenals in 2003 made their way to Sumatra. In 2004, there were allegations that Indonesian jihadists were in south Thailand, though these charges were never confirmed (and Indonesian authorities claim were unfounded). It remains to be seen if Sabri was a singleton or part of a larger group of Indonesian nationals in Thailand's restive south.

In other Indonesian news, the Indonesian government has slapped a travel ban on freed militant cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. This comes after Jakarta received considerable international criticism, especially from the U.S. and Australia, for allowing Ba'asyir's release.

Soft Targets

By Bill Roggio

Haji Agha Lalai (left, Director of Kandahar Strengthening Peace) and Mullah Ibrahim (right). Click image to view.

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: As Coalition and Afghan forces press on with Operation Mountain Thrust in southeastern Afghanistan, the fighting in the Zari and Panjwai has abated. Lieutenant Colonel Ian Hope, the Commanding Officer of the 1st Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, has stated the offensive operations have now shifted towards joint security patrols between Canadian and Afghan police and army units. "We know from our report that any large Taliban groups have withdrawn... there must be a permanent presence, particularly by Afghan National Authorities, particularly ANP and ANA, supported by Coalition soldiers. Coalition soldiers will remain present in those two district (Zari and Panjwai) for some time. They are there now and they will stay,” said Lt.Col. Hope.

The Taliban hit back at a soft target in Kandahar City on Thursday morning. Ten were murdered and seventeen wounded after the Taliban detonated a bomb on a civilian bus. On the bus were Afghan nationals working for the Coalition at Kandahar Airfield. Five interpreters, one driver and one cook were killed in the terror bombing.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack in a press release issued to the Afghan Islamic News, and claim they can strike at targets at will. “It is our success. It shows we can... gain access to highly guarded government places... and do what we want,” according th the Taliban press release. But the timing of the attack and the security measures at Kandahar Airfield tell a different story. The Taliban chose to detonate the bomb on the bus while in the city, as outside buses are prevented from entering the airbase. Passengers are dropped off at the main gate and driven into the airfield by different vehicles to prevent such a situation.

The choice of striking at soft, civilian targets is both an admission of military weakness and a standard tactic insurgencies use to sow fear in civilian populations. "The Taliban is not capable of facing the Coalition on the battlefield. They know that. Every time they face us on the battlefield, they lose and they lose big," said Major Quentin Innis, a spokesman for Combined Task Force Aegis.

The Taliban are attempting to intimidate local Afghanis to prevent them from cooperating with Afghan government and Coalition forces. Interpreters are particularly a desired target of the Taliban as they provide the vital link between Coalition forces and the local Afghan peoples. Five of the Coalition's estimated fifty interpreters in the Kandahar region have been murdered, and the impact on current operations and future recruiting are unknown.

In the past, suicide bombings and other mass attacks on civilians in Kandahar has produced a backlash against the Taliban. Attacks against civilians in Kandahar City and Spin Boldak earlier this year have produced rare public protests against the Taliban. “Death to Pakistan, death to al-Qaeda and death to the Taliban," chanted the protester in Spin Boldak after the Taliban suicide attack during a celebration of the Muslim festival of Eid .

The Afghan government is attempting to counter Taliban influence by turning members of the Taliban against the movement through the Tahkim-e-Solh program (Strengthening Peace). Established in May of 2005, Tahkim-e-Solh is aimed at giving Taliban and other anti-government forces not guilty of criminal activity a way to opt out of the fighting and return to society. As of May 2006, 1,569 low and mid-level Taliban have entered the program.

On Friday, Mullah Ibrahim, described as a senior Taliban commander with great influence in the Panjwai and Zari districts, has publicly joined the Strengthening Peace program, and renounced the use of violence against civilians and the government. Mullah Ibrahim has fought with the Mujahideen and the Taliban for several decades, and boasts of his fighting prowess. “If I come to fight, no one would have have defeated me, just as I have not been defeated in the past,” said Ibrahim, “I want all Afghans to abandon fighting and unite.” His involvement with the Taliban since 2001 was sidestepped, but he indicated the Taliban has “coerced” Afghans to fight in their cause while in foreign countries, including Pakistan. As in all problems in Afghanistan, the origin invariably leads to Pakistan.

Additional Multimedia:

A transcript from my Wednesday evening appearance on the Hugh Hewitt show is available at Radioblogger.

A recording from Thursday's press conference with Major Quentin Innis on the bombing in Kandahar. (File size is 5 Megabytes, in .wav format)

A recording from Friday's press conference with Mullah Ibrahim. This includes translation to Pashtu. (File size is 37 Megabytes, in MP3 format)

A recording from Friday's press conference with Lieutenant Colonel Ian Hope on Operation Mountain Thrust. This includes translation to Pashtu. (File size is 22 Megabytes, in MP3 format)

Dissension in the Ranks over Al-Qaida's New Chief in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Since the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi on June 8, the U.S. military has been aggressively engaging the news media regarding the airstrike that killed Zarqawi and his potential successors as chief of Al-Qaida. Within days of Zarqawi's passing, the Pentagon focused its attention primarily on a little-known Egyptian mujahideen middleman known as Abu Ayyub al-Masri--who, for most of us, first surfaced in a CENTCOM most wanted list about a year and a half ago. When Al-Qaida subsequently announced that Zarqawi's actual successor would actually be another unknown named Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, the Pentagon revised their earlier statement and Major General William Caldwell explained to a press conference, "We think that Abu Ayyub al-Masri is in fact, probably, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir. They are probably one and the same."

Unfortunately, this conclusion has been called into serious doubt by a host of fairly credible sources. Many in the jihadist community that support Al-Qaida are openly scoffing at Major General Caldwell's latest press conference and they have called upon the Al-Qaida-umbrella group the Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC) to issue a new statement and clear up these "lies." I have also spoken with civilian analysts in the U.S. government responsible for tracking insurgents who expressed strong skepticism about the supposed "dual identity" of Abu Ayyub. They have even questioned details pertaining the photo distributed today in the media that purportedly depicts Abu Ayyub.

It is certainly possible that these press conferences are a deliberate ploy by the U.S. military to flush out Al-Qaida and force them to better identify their replacement leadership in the wake of Zarqawi's demise. But unless this is the specific and narrow purpose, the Pentagon should be especially careful that it does not engage in misleading speculation in the media--or it endangers losing significant credibility. With all due respect for the difficult task they have been handed, the military has already committed serious public relations blunders in reporting on progress made in fighting Zarqawi's movement, such as their past insistence on assigning meaningless numeric values to captured or killed Al-Qaida operatives. Let's hope this isn't yet another one...

Three Days of Operation Mountain Thrust in Kandahar

By Bill Roggio

The other side of FOB Martello. Click image to view.

An audio recording of a press conference with Colonel Chris Vernon on Operation Mountain Thrust is also available.

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: On Saturday night, Charlie Company from the 1st Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry moved from Forward Operating Base Martello to the "430 compound", a small, austere ANP base infested with large ants and adorned with a well in the center. The Canadian soldiers took advantage of the rare running water to wash up from the dust bowl at FOB Martello. The Afghan National Police guarded the soldiers from Charlie Company as they slept, packed into the mud-walled compound.

Charlie Company rolled from the 430 compound in the late morning, and headed west to the Helmand desert regions of Registan, which translates to "sandy place". The company, which is augmented by Afghan National Army and their Embedded Training Team from the US Army, broke for lunch in the scorching desert sun in the barren, sand and rock strewn moonscape of the Registan.

LAV IIIs in the Registan desert of Helmand Province. Click image to view.

The battle group receive their orders: the Zari and Panjwai regions south of Highway 1 are to be swept of large concentrations of Taliban believed to be in the area. Charlie Company and the Afghan National Army are the hammer, and Bravo Company and the Afghan National Police are the anvil, setting up blocking positions in an effort to seal the Taliban's escape. Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah and two other senior leaders are thought to be in the area. Intelligence indicated the Taliban are armed with small arms, RPGs and mortars and there is the possibility of more sophisticated weaponry is in their possession.

The Zari and Panjwai districts have been a focal point for the Taliban. The small farming communities in the green belt between Highway 1 and the Arghandab river provides the Taliban with cover to infiltrate the region. The support for the Taliban in the region is mixed, with some tribes supplying the Taliban, and others looking to the government for protection. Highway 1 is the main artery to Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, and the Taliban like to use this route. The Afghan National Police have been establishing checkpoints along the road to monitor traffic. The Taliban is also said to transverse the Registan desert to the south in Pakistan, where supply and support bases in Balochistan are at their disposal.

7 Platoon takes a break in the deserts of Helmand. Click image to view.

This will be the fourth operation in the region since the spring, and more may be necessary until a permanent presence is established in the region to ensure the security situation. Several days ago Canadian soldiers from Bravo Company of 1 PPCLI established Patrol Base Wilson (named after a Canadian soldier killed in Afghanistan earlier this year) along Highway 1 in the Zari police and administrative district center. After six months of a presence in Kandahar, the Canadians are pushing outward and beginning to establish a permanent presence in the more volatile regions of Kandahar.

On Sunday, the battle group broke from lunch and proceeded east to begin the operation. The Canadian effort is part of an overarching operation called Mountain Thrust, which is designed to decrease the Taliban's influence and military power throughout southeastern Afghanistan. Military operations are followed with an increased security presence and aid programs designed to win back local support. Mountain Thrust has been in action for several weeks now in Zabul, Helmand Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces. Over the past few days, Mullah Omar's brother in law, Mullah Amanullah, was killed along with fourteen other Taliban fighters in Uruzgan. Ten Taiban were killed in the Sangin district of Helmand province

The soldiers from Charlie spent five long hours sweeping east through the desert, encountering small farming villages in the inhospitable desert. No contact was made, and by Sunday night, Charlie Company established a leder in the desert and hunkered down for the evening, sleeping under the stars and a full moon.

The Afghan National Army in their softskinned vehicles. Click image to view.

Charlie Company and the ANA soldiers woke prior to sunrise Monday morning, and proceeded with the thrust into the Panjwai and Zari districts. Canadian and ANA forces made their first contact in the town of Pashtool. Two Canadian soldiers were wounded by small arms fire during the initial contact, and one remains in serious condition. On Tuesday, the intelligence became more focused, and the village of Zangabad was in the Canadian Army's sights. No contact was made, and the battle group proceeded to the town of Mushan.

Over the course of two days of fighting, twelve Taliban were confirmed killed and eight wounded. Two suspected Taliban were take prisoner, one of whom had a camera and an plenty of Pakistani cash in his possession. The military officers and enlisted I spoke to believe that all roads to the Taliban eventually lead back to Pakistan.

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Press Conference with Colonel Chris Vernon on Mountain Thrust

By Bill Roggio

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: Coalition forces have officially announced Operation Mountain Thrust, a concerted effort to dislodge the Taliban from eastern and southeastern Afghanistan. This operation has been ongoing for some time, and includes the offensive operations in Kunar, Uruzgan, Kandahar, Helmand and Zabul provinces. Colonel Chris Vernon, the Chief of Staff of Multinational Forces Brigade - Regional Command South, has commented on the operation in a press conference just minutes ago here at Kandahar Airfield.

Download the audio here. The file is in MP3 format, approximately 12 Megabytes and about 10 minutes long.

Of note: Col Vernon states there are pockets of Taliban influence and safe havens in southeastern Afghanistan. Coalition forces are working to root them out of the region and establish a permanent presence - shades of the Anbar Campaign in Iraq (Flash Presentation), and a standard counterinsurgency technique. I will post on operations in Kandahar later today, which are but part of Mountain Thrust. I asked the question about Pakistan's involvement in the Taliban insurgency, but Colonel Vernon would not comment on this subject.

CNN Editor Equates "Terrorism" With "Freedom Fight," Insulting All Coalition Forces

By Andrew Cochran

You would think that a worldwide news operation would recognize and apply standards and definitions for the reporting of a "terrorist" and "terrorist act." We appreciate and work with many outstanding reporters and commentators worldwide who certainly have no problem. CNN apparently has a problem, as indicated in an interview of "Senior Editor for Arab Affairs," Octavia Nasr, by a student news reporter for CNN Student News. Read this excerpt:

CARL AZUZ, CNN STUDENT NEWS REPORTER: WordCentral.com defines terrorism as the use of a violent or destructive act to achieve a goal. Why is it so difficult for the international community to agree on a definition for terrorism?

OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SENIOR EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: Well, I think for one, terrorism for one person is a freedom fight for another. And you know, the Arab world always talks about this, as they say the so-called terrorism, because they believe that - in Iraq, for example, many people are struggling against occupation, so in many ways they support that struggle against occupation but then they draw a line between those who are struggling. They want a free Iraq, they want the occupiers out and those who are pushing the envelope and crossing the line by terrorizing people. And when we say terrorizing people, in a sense, it's going after the innocent civilians, the unsuspecting civilians, taking hostages, beheading them. Committing acts that are totally unacceptable, even by the standards of a freedom fight. So, you know, if you think about it, "terrorism" is a subjective term depending on which side you are on.

I'm amazed that Nasr doesn't appear to know the difference between U.S., Iraqi, and other coalition forces on one hand, and Al Qaida and Iraqi terrorists on the other. If, after all the beheadings, kidnappings, and suicide bombings perpetrated in Iraq by Zarqawi and Iraqi gangs, Nasr really believes that terrorism is a "freedom fight" by another name, she is not qualified to edit or direct other reporters. And it's insulting that she uses the pejorative "occupiers" to describe coalition forces, definitely not the objective, unbiased term for use by a world-class news operation.

Abu Bakar Ba’asyir Walks Out of Prison Today a Free Man: A Real Setback in the War on Terror in Southeast Asia - Updated

By Zachary Abuza

Today, Indonesian authorities will release Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, a 68 year old cleric and the spiritual leader of the Southeast Asian affiliate of Al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah. Ba’asyir had been serving a 25½ month sentence, on a number of charges in a four-year legal saga. His release will have an important impact in counter-terror operations in Southeast Asia. More than just being a media boon for JI and it’s affiliated organizations, it will revitalize organizations that are trying to regroup after the arrests of more than 300 members. Ba'asyir has called for the destruction of the United States, England, Australia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. While he will be under very intensive police and intelligence scrutiny, and is unlikely to be engaged in plotting attacks against Western interests, he will be an important cause that Islamists and jihadists can rally around. Importantly, it will also give JI the first spiritual leader it has had since 2003.

Reflections on Haditha

By Bill Roggio

Iraqi child from Barwana attack receiving treatment at Al Asad Air Base after being rushed to the hospital by the Marines of the 3rd Battalion, 1st Marines. Photograph by SSgt Beckstead.. Click image to view.

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: The accusations of a Marine “massacre” in Haditha continue to dominate the headlines, but the fact is we still do not know what happened in the city on November 19th, 2005 in the aftermath of the roadside bombing on the Marine patrol. What we do know is one Marine from Kilo Company, 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment was killed and another wounded, and in the subsequent violence 24 Iraqi civilians were killed, some with gunshots to the head and chest. The news reports portray the event as a cold blooded murder and massacre, but it is possible the Marines, in a rare instance of a breakdown in discipline, violated the rules of engagement and used excessive force. Until the results of the investigation are released, we have no way of knowing.

The Haditha Triad region, located along the Euphrates River in the heart of the Sunni Triangle just west of Ramadi, was the area of operations for the Marines of the 3/1 from September 2005 until March of 2006. This is the region where Abu Musab al-Zarqawi attempted to establish the "Islamic Republic of Haditha." During the summer of 2005, al-Qaeda drove off the local police and intimidated, murdered and tortured those who opposed them. Zarqawi is said to have personally conducted public execution on the Barwana bridge those he as deemed impure - homosexuals, spies, adulterers and those who sold alcohol and music,

At the beginning of December of 2005, I embedded with the Marines of the 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, just after they liberated the region from al-Qaeda's grip during Operation Rivergate. I spent nearly two weeks in the Haditha Triad. I patrolled the streets of Haqlaniyah with 2nd Squad, Second Platoon, Lima Company and an Iraqi squad. I witnessed India Company provide for the security for the people of Barwana to allow them to vote in the historic December 15th election. I patrolled the Euphrates River with the Marines of the 3/1's Dam Security Unit and watched them search river traffic for weapons smugglers. In every interaction with the Marines of the 3/1, I saw them serve with distinction, as a proud and professional combat unit.

The Marines based in the Triad, as elsewhere along the Euphrates River Valley, were fighting a tough counterinsurgency against a ruthless and often unseen enemy. al-Qaeda and the insurgency routinely used women as human shields, attacked from the middle of crowded locations, homes, schools and mosques, and showed a reckless disregard for civilian casualties. Assassinations of local tribal leaders cooperating with the Iraqi government was the norm, as were mortar, grenade, RPG and roadside bombing attacks. al-Qaeda formed military hit squads designed to provoke the Marines into violent reactions and cause civilian casualties. The al-Qaeda teams were well armed, possessed new weapons, wore body armor and were well financed.

The Road to Tarin Kot

By Bill Roggio

Troops from the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry prep for the field. Click image to view.

Shah Wali Kot, Afghanistan: I've embedded with 7 Platoon, Charlie Company of the 1st Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry Regiment. This is a proud group of soldiers who bristle at the common perception in Canada that their primary mission is peacekeeping. "We're not peace keepers, we're soldiers," the soldiers freely told me during numerous casual conversations. Afghanistan is far from a peacekeeping operation. The Canadian soldiers are actively fighting the Taliban insurgency in Kandahar province.

Charlie Company is the battalion's maneuver company, which means they are the unit designated to engage Taliban formations as they appear, as well as provide manpower for other security tasks when needed. Their latest round of combat occurred during the last two weeks of May, when Charlie Company fought several hundred Taliban in Panjwai District. Well over two hundred Taliban are estimated to have been killed. Captain Nicola Goddard was killed during this engagement, and five soldiers were wounded during the four skirmishes in the Panjwai district. The soldiers expect to return to Panjwai, as this is a hub for Taliban activity in the region.

The company packs a lethal punch, with the LAV III as the main fighting vehicle, and augmented with the Nyala (RG-31) and G-Wagon. The troops rave about the LAV IIIs for the firepower, maneuverability and survivability. The LAV IIIs are ideally suited for the low intensity combat here in Afghanistan. Armed with a 25mm cannon which is stabilized and can be fired on the move, a 7.62 coax gun, an M240MG mounted on the turret, and a section (or squad) of infantry, the Canadians can bring superior firepower down on the Taliban.

Charlie Company halts on the Kandahar-Tarin Kot road. Click image to view.

The LAV III can also can take a hit. The vehicles have been struck with RPGs (rocket propelled grenades) and roadside bombs, and have survived the engagements. The headquarters section's LAV was struck by an RPG during an ambush in the fighting in Panjwai. The RPG penetrated the soft diesel gerry cans mounted on the side, yet failed to make a dent in the armor. When the troops move forward, the LAVs become their homes, with speaker systems for the MP3 and DVD players, coffee makers, and even microwaves to soften the rough edge of the field. Christmas lights are hung during the holiday season, and several of the LAVs are adorned with the troop's pinups of choice.

Charlie Company rolled out of Kandahar Airfield at noon on Friday to conduct Operation Tabar. For the operation, Charlie Company is being deployed to Forward Operating Base (FOB) Martello, which will be a joint Afghan National Army and Dutch Army controlled base. The base sits along the Kandahar-Tarin Kot road, a winding, well paved two lane asphalt road and a vital supply link between Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces. The road cuts through the Shah Wali Kot district of Kandahar, a rocky, mountainous desert region dotted with small oasis of sparsely populated farming villages nestled in the valleys. The trip was uneventful, as only the most foolish of Taliban would attack Charlie company as it rolls out in full strength. While the roadside bomb threat exists here in Afghanistan, the threat is no where near the intensity as it is in Iraq.

The Road to Tarin Kot. Click image to view.

As part of Operation Tabar, Charlie Company provided additional security at Forward Operating Base Martello, where a ceremony to officially open the base was held today. FOB Martello will expand Afghan government's presence in the Shah Wali Kot district, and will be manned by Dutch and Afghan National Army forces. The ceremony was attended by local, provincial and national government and military officials, as well as Coalition military commanders. Intelligence indicated the Taliban planned on disrupting the event, but the Taliban was silent this day.

By evening, the mission had changed and Charlie Company packed up and headed south towards the Zari-Panjwai regio. The company deployed to a Afghan National Police (ANP) compound and prepped for yet another operation in the Taliban infested region west of Kandahar City. Prior to moving to the ANP compound, the LAVs of Charlie company stopped for a “show of force,” and unleashed it guns on Forward Operating Base Tiger, an abandoned American base just south of FOB Martello.

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Improved European Cooperation Is Helping To Connect The Dots On Terrorism Financing

By Victor Comras

The fruits of improved intra-European cooperation on terrorism-related investigations are starting to become more apparent, particularly in the area of combating terrorism financing. Coordinated investigations and improved information sharing are resulting in a significant increase in the number of terrorism financing related prosecutions. Last week's arrest by French and Swiss police of members of a North African terrorism financing network used to launder funds for the GSPC is a case in point. But, there is still a long way to go. EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini complained to the EU parliament last month that "The flow of information { on terrorism related issues} is still insufficient," EU countries, he said were still failing to adequately cooperate through Eurojust and were slow to process judicial requests. Further improvements were needed, he said, to enhance the exchange of information directly between police authorities in appropriate cases.

But, close cooperation between French and Swiss authorities led to the arrest June 6th of 7 suspects charged with laundering funds for the GSPC. French police, in cooperation with Swiss authorities, took into custody six individuals charged with laundering GSPC related funds generated from criminal activities outside of France. A seventh suspect was arrested in Switzerland. The group came to the attention of Swiss and French authorities following the May 12th arrest in Switzerland of 7 other suspects now charged with planning to down a El Al airplane. That case, in turn, was the result of an earlier investigation, began a year ago, into a series of thefts committed by a group of about dozen North African’s in and around Zurich. Members of the arrested group were believed tied to Mohamed Achraf, a Moroccan , who had been extradited to Spain in 2005 under a warrant charging his involvement in a conspiracy to bomb the L’Audience Nationale, Spain’s principal national criminal court.

Last month French police dismantled another GSPC financial network based in the south of France. In that action French authorities reportedly seized several million Euro’s at the residence of a local Iman of Algerian origin. The funds had ostensibly been gathered to support Algerian social assistance programs, but, in fact were being used to support terrorist recruitment, maintenance, and operational activities.

At a press conference in Paris last week, French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy again underscored France’s determination to work together with other European countries and the United States to combat terrorism financing internationally. France, he said, was still being used as a principal money laundering and transit center for funds destined to the GSPC and other Islamic terrorist organizations. Since May 2002, he noted, the French Government has arrested 1,161 persons and charged 462 with terrorism related activities. At the same time Belgian authorities investigated some 10 148 reports during 2005 related to possible money laundering and terrorism financing. These reports resulted in some 25 terrorism financing cases being forwarded to the Belgium Procurer’s Office for criminal prosecution.

Earlier this year Gijs de Vries, the special Counter-Terrorism Coordinator appointed by the EU following the 2004 Madrid bombing provided his first-ever really up-beat report on terrorism cooperation between European agencies. He told a seminar in Brussels that

“For the first time European decision-makers are being provided with an integrated picture of the terrorist threat. SitCen's frequent contributions provide valuable input into the debates and policy-making in the Council. Police co-operation in the fight against terrorism has intensified in several respects, including through Europol. In 2005 Europol helped co-ordinate the breaking up of a European network of human smugglers (52 arrests), an international network of child pornographers (raids in 13 countries), and several international counterfeiting operations. Europol currently supports around 20 ''live' investigations in several Member States into Islamist terrorism and has actively supported British authorities after the 7 July 2005 attack. To facilitate police co-operation in crisis situations a network has also been created of the special intervention units in Europe's police forces.

Scheuer Vs. Burke: Where do we really stand in the fight against al-Qa'ida?

By Jeffrey Cozzens

Michael Scheuer and Jason Burke last week published very different assessments of whether the West is gaining the upper-hand in the fight against the global jihad of al-Qa’ida (AQ) and its Emir, Usama bin Laden (UBL). Both authors are highly regarded experts who have written perhaps the most defining works on al-Qa’ida to date. However, these authors employ quite different approaches and metrics to determine Western success (or lack thereof) against the global jihad. Their perspectives represent two primary (and generally conflicting) views on the current state of the global movement and its chief symbol. Generally, Scheuer sees UBL’s glass as half-full; Burke sees it as half-empty.

The following analysis considers Burke’s and Scheuer’s views, which generally summarize those found in the wider U.S. counter-terrorism community, then offers its own set of criteria that might be appropriate to consider in any “scorecard” that evaluates our current efforts against global jihadism.

First, concerning Burke’s analysis in the Guardian, several prominent themes emerge in his argument that AQ is losing:

•Burke’s determination that we are winning is based upon a broad-brush approach that factors in a holistic picture of the evolution of Islamic militancy, its root causes and nuanced, regional forms. It is also obvious that he considers bin Laden to be merely a spoke in the evolving “wheel” of militant Islam.
•Reason for Western optimism 1: AQ’s strategy of igniting a global awakening has faltered because of its exclusive reliance upon violence.
•Reason for Western optimism 2: Islamic militancy is serious, but it has not impacted the West to a large extent. We can live with minor inconvenience and restrictions.
•Reason for Western optimism 3: Polls demonstrate that the vast majority of Muslims worldwide prefer non-violent contention and are increasingly less enthusiastic in their admiration of bin Laden.

Scheuer’s assessment is markedly different; as seen below, he argues that UBL is likely pleased with where things stand today:

•Scheuer’s argument that UBL and the global jihadi movement have some reason for optimism is based on a qualitative method that attempts to assess the present geopolitical context “through our enemies’ eyes.” In so many words, Scheuer pays homage to the jihadi perception of UBL as a mujadid—one who would awaken Muslims to their obligations—and therefore views him with central importance as an inspirational figure.
•Reason for AQ’s optimism 1: As UBL has noted, he never considered himself (or AQ, for that matter) the sole carrier of the burden of jihad; it was merely an incendiary force. The killing of individual jihadi figureheads like al-Zarqawi will therefore not eliminate this function.
•Reason for AQ’s optimism 2: Western policies in the Islamic world have given prescience to the arguments of UBL and other figureheads; thus UBL’s “tight focus” on these Western policies is motivating “an increasing number” of Muslims to respond to his call to arms.
•Reason for AQ’s optimism 3: There have been a number of AQ-inspired—though not directly linked—attacks around the globe.

So, which expert is correct? Unlike natural science, no one can ‘prove’ either author right or wrong, just as no one can say with certainty that we are winning or losing the battle against Islamic militancy. This answer is evasive owing to two abstractions, time and quality, which work in concert to produce a muddied picture of a battlefield that looks different to many of the combatants. That being said, I will briefly evaluate some of the merits and short-comings of both experts’ arguments.

Al-Qaida in Iraq Names Official Successor to Zarqawi

By Evan Kohlmann

This morning, the Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC) released an authentic statement on behalf of Al-Qaida in Iraq announcing that Al-Qaida's Shura Council had agreed upon a successor to the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi: a shadowy figure named Abu Hamza al-Muhajir. Though the statement offered no further details at to Abu Hamza's background, his name "al-Muhajir" ("the Emigrant") would tend to suggest that he is of non-Iraqi origin.

Interestingly, there do not appear to be obvious references to Abu Hamza al-Muhajir in any of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's propaganda material from the last three years, and to the best of my knowledge, neither the Iraqi government nor the U.S. military has ever publicly named him as a wanted Al-Qaida member. Even the jihadi community that supports Al-Qaida was caught somewhat offguard by this announcement -- many of them had simply assumed that Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Abu Abdelrahman al-Iraqi would take over in Zarqawi's absence.

U.S. Forces Conduct Zarqawi Autopsy Briefing (updated with slides)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE, 12:00 pm ET: The Multi-National Forces website now has the slides presented at the briefing on the Zarqawi and Rahman autopsies and links to videos of the briefing and the airstirke. Here is the first DOD press release on the autopsies. The site might be very busy, so here is the single frame on Zarqawi's injuries below from that file, and three other slides, including on the Rahman injuries, are on the continuation page below (all are thumbnails):

Maj. Gen. Bill Caldwell and Army medical personnel conducted a briefing on the Zarqawi and Rahman autopsies. To summarize, Zarqawi died when his lungs were crushed in the bombing and failed, without extensive visible injuries, while Rahman suffered more direct external injuries, including a skull fracture. Zarqawi lived for almost an hour after the strike (AP story on the briefing). The briefing was detailed in scope and included slides. Maj. Gen. Caldwell stated that one of the reasons for this public briefing is to counter Al Qaeda propaganda on Zarqawi's death. He and a doctor who participated in the briefing also said there was no evidence that Zarqawi was beaten or shot by firearms. Gen. Caldwell said that Special Ops Forces did not arrive at the house until 28 minutes after the strike, the person who called in the strike was not on the ground, and Iraqi forces were already at the house when U.S. Special Ops forces arrived after the strike. He said repeatedly that it was obvious that Zarqawi's death was "imminent" due to his "extremely massive internal injuries." He also said that Zarqawi's body was treated withthe same procedures and dignity given to Coalition dead. Caldwell also verified that the DNA tests on the body verified that it is Zarqawi's body. An Army doctor said there is no evidence that Zarqawi was wearing a suicide belt, one of the questions raised in his video and discussed on this site by Bill Roggio. CENTCOM is putting together a detailed timeline on the event for release to the public.

Other news reports:
Zarqawi died of injuries after raid, DNA test positive (AFP newswire)

More Reactions to the Death of Zarqawi

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida commanders around the world and prominent Iraqi insurgent factions have continued to issue responses to the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, including the following:

- June 8 statement from Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud, commander of the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)

- June 10 statement from the Al-Fatihin Army in Iraq

See also:
- CHART (NYTIMES) - "A Many-Headed Insurgency"
- CHART - "Major Sunni Militant Groups in Iraq: March 2006"
- CHART - "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Leadership Network in Iraq: October 2005"

Which Side Is Winning? Two Opposing Views

By Andrew Cochran

With Zarqawi's death, experts and observers are starting to re-assess whether Islamist terrorists, led by Osama bin Laden, or the Western CT community are "winning" or "losing". Personally, I think such exercises are still premature - it seems analogous to what "experts" might have written in early 1944 about World War II, over two years affter Pearl Harbor but before the D-Day invasion (I haven't researched it). I prefer a dynamic assessment of success or failure against a strategic threat, the nature of which has changed since the 9/11 attacks, and I don't trust more conclusive judgments at this point. But it's worth reading both views. Michael Scheuer, former CIA agent and noted author, wrote "Toronto, London and the Jihadi Spring: Bin Laden as Successful Instigator" in the Jamestown Fundation's June 6 edition of "Terrorism Focus." The opposite view is held by Jason Burke, Europe Editor of the UK "Observer," in "Why bin Laden is losing his war of terror" published today. Some excerpts from each:

The First Revenge Battle in Zarqawi's Name

By Evan Kohlmann

Today, the Mujahideen Shura Council--an insurgent umbrella organization headed by Al-Qaida in Iraq--issued a communique detailing the first apparent revenge battle carried out in the name of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, targeting a U.S. military convoy in the city of Ramadi. According to the statement:

"At 7:55pm on Thursday June 8, 2006, your brothers from the Military Wing of the Mujahideen Shura Council--after confirming the news of the martyrdom of our beloved Shaykh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (may Allah have mercy on his soul and accept him as a martyr)... were deep in sadness and sorrow was in their hearts. [They] arose demanding the blood of those who killed Shaykh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and chanted, 'There is no God but Allah, and Mohammed is his Messenger!' in order to harden their resolve and increase their insistence on avenging the religion of Allah and the killing of the Shaykh. [They also sought] to make clear to the infidels and apostates that the Islamic nation from which Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi came will bring forward thousands upon thousands more just like him, with the help of Allah. Your brothers, by the grace of Allah, attacked a crusader vehicles column in... Ramadi with rockets and light weapons... Your brothers succeeded in completely destroying a crusader armored Humvee, then setting it ablaze and killing at leat four crusaders. The heroes were able to safely retreat while shouting, 'Allahu Akhbar!'--all of this with tears in their eyes and devotion in their hearts praying for the Shaykh [Abu Musab al-Zarqawi] and asking that Allah have mercy upon him and allow him to reach the ranks of the martyrs..."

CATS Paper: "The Afghan-Bosnian Mujahideen Network in Europe."

By Evan Kohlmann

Last month, I presented a research paper at a conference in Stockholm organized by the Swedish Emergency Management Agency and other co-sponsors--including the Swedish National Defence College's Center for Assymetric Threat Studies (CATS). Our CTBlog colleague Dr. Magnus Ranstorp--former director of the St. Andrews University Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence--is now Chief Scientist at CATS. At the request of Dr. Ranstorp, I prepared a lengthy study for the conference focusing on the impact of "The Afghan-Bosnian Mujahideen Network in Europe." Copies of the paper are now available for download care of the Swedish National Defence College's website.

Syria behind a plot to destabilize Qatar

By Olivier Guitta

Last week, Qatari authorities proceeded to arrest about 100 Syrian workers and five Syrian intelligence officers. The Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah explained that Qatar had foiled a destabilization plot against the monarchy. This plot, reportedly conceived by Assad's brother in law Assef Shawkat (also wanted in conjuction to the murder of ex Lebanese Pm Rafik Hariri) with the help of Hizbullah Imad Mugniyeh activating sleeping cells in the Gulf, targeted vital and strategic centers in Qatar. Syria wanted to take revenge on Qatar because of its vote at the UN for resolution 1680 which calls for a final drawing of the borders between Syria and lebanon and the reestablishment of normal diplomatic relations between the two states.
This story, if proven accurate, only shows how Syria is still using tactics of a terrorist state.

Since Iran has been so much in the limelight, Syria has been left on the backburner. That's why unfortunately the Cedar Revolution of Spring 2005 is only a fading memory and Syria is back to its old tricks.

Abu Bakar Ba’asyir Walks Out of Prison Today a Free Man: A Real Setback in the War on Terror in Southeast Asia

By Zachary Abuza

Today, Indonesian authorities will release Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, a 68 year old cleric and the spiritual leader of the Southeast Asian affiliate of Al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah. Ba’asyir had been serving a 25½ month sentence, on a number of charges in a four-year legal saga. His release will have an important impact in counter-terror operations in Southeast Asia. More than just being a media boon for JI and it’s affiliated organizations, it will revitalize organizations that are trying to regroup after the arrests of more than 300 members. Ba'asyir has called for the destruction of the United States, England, Australia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. While he will be under very intensive police and intelligence scrutiny, and is unlikely to be engaged in plotting attacks against Western interests, he will be an important cause that Islamists and jihadists can rally around. Importantly, it will also give JI the first spiritual leader it has had since 2003.

New Zealand Expels Saudi/Yemeni linked to 9/11 Hijacker

By Zachary Abuza

The New Zealand government announced today that they had expelled a Saudi/Yemeni national, Rayed Mohammed Abdullah Ali (28) on 29 May. Born in Saudi Arabia to a Yemeni father, he traveled on a Yemeni passport, claiming that Saudi authorities would not give him citizenship. He had been arrested last month after entering New Zealand in February 2006 on a student visa to study English so that he could continue on and enter a commercial flight-training program. He was already training at the Manawatu Aero Club.

According to the 9/11 Commission report, Ali had lived with Hani Hanjour in Phoenix, Arizona, where they had also trained together. He claimed to have received a private pilot’s license while in the US. Hanjour is believed to have piloted Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon. He was a leader at the Islamic Cultural Centre in Phoenix and allegedly gave extremist speeches at the mosque.

Deemed a threat to national security, he was deported to Saudi Arabia; only the second person deported under Section 72 of New Zealand's Immigration Act, which offers no right to appeal. Saudi authorities have not commented on Ali or stated whether they will press charges.

Iraqi Foreign Minister: Terrorists Targeting Civilians, Not U.S.

By Andrew Cochran

In an interview with the Khaleej Times, Hoshyar Zebari, Iraqi Foreign Minister, said this about the targeting of civilians in Iraq:

‘The US forces do not kill civilians. Yes, civilians got killed in Haditha and other places but it is the terrorists who target civilians in Iraq. More than 40 to 50 Iraqis are killed daily at markets, places of worship and gatherings due to suicidal terrorist bombings. This is the solid truth which journalists cannot beat us on."

The terrorists don't face prosecution or questioning by the press for their massacres. This morning in Baghdad, another roadside bomb killed four innocent Iraqis at a market and wounded 27. The day of Zarqawi's death, five car bombs in and around Baghdad killed over 40 and wounded dozens.

Whatever happened at Haditha at the hands of U.S. soldiers doesn't begin to compare to the beheading of civilians, the market bombings, the kidnappings of students on buses, and other slaughters conducted by the terrorists in Iraq, whether they're foreign fighters or Iraqi Sunni or Shiite gangsters. Elements of the Arab press will emphasize the Haditha killings and don't report the scope of the terrorists' brutality. The rest of the world press has a professional responsibility to put Haditha in perspective.

More CT Blog Media Appearances on Zarqawi's Death & Legacy (updated 6/10)

By Andrew Cochran

Many of our Contributing Experts continued their heavy schedule of media appearances and interviews last night and today in the wake of Zarqawi's death, including:

Evan Kohlmann was interviewed by the AP on Friday: "My perception is that if they released a statement in the name of Abu Abdul-Rahman al-Iraqi, then he is still around and, as the deputy head of Al Qaeda in Iraq, he presumably is the new leader." Then, in another interview later by the AP, he discussed the confusion over Zarqawi's possible successor. He discussed the friction between OBL and Zarqawi with the NY Daily News on June 10: "Bin Laden may see this as an opportunity to reassert control over his network."

Steven Emerson was interviewed on MSNBC's Rita Cosby Show last night (see video here) about the use of the internet by terrorists and counterterrorism alike ("These are virtual classes in terrorism, A to Z") ; the future of the Zarqawi network; and the prospects for catching OBL, Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Mullah Omar.

Magnus Ranstorp was interviewed in the same AP story as Evan and by Radio Free Europe: "I think that [his] skill, advice, and experience will not be replaced immediately. But there are others that do have that skill already, and [I think] that we will soon see another name coming to the fore. Who that will be, I don't know."

I was interviewed by the "Fayetteville Observer" about the role of U.S. Army soldiers from nearby Ft. Bragg in Task Force 145, which pursued Zarqawi to the end (see Bill Roggio's post yesterday).

The Rise and Fall of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

By Evan Kohlmann

[This entry will continue to be updated throughout the day]

Twenty-four hours after the U.S. military announced the death of most wanted Al-Qaida leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, reactions continue to pour in from all sections of the jihadi community. Among the most interesting items of note:

- A statement from Al-Qaida confirming the "martyrdom" of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi signed by Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Abu Abdelrahman al-Iraqi.

- A communique from the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) claiming responsibility for an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on Iraqi Interior Ministry soldiers celebrating Zarqawi's death in western Baghdad.

See also: Oct. 1, 2005 message from Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Abu Abdelrahman al-Iraqi

Daily Standard: Zarqawi and His Role Model

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The death of terrorist kingpin Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a time to applaud the success of Coalition forces, but also to assess what could have been done better along the way. In today's Daily Standard, my colleague Richard Miniter and I argue that one shortcoming of U.S. intelligence was its failure to recognize the relationship between Zarqawi and his historical role model, Nur ad-Din Zanki. An excerpt:

HISTORY NEVER REPEATS ITSELF precisely, but it often rhymes. Coalition forces killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a safe house just outside Baghdad. More than 800 years earlier, the life of Zarqawi's role model, Nur ad-Din Zanki (1118-1174), came to an end in Damascus, another power center of the ancient Islamic world. The long overlooked connection between the two men should provide a note of instruction for the future in dealing with the Iraq insurgency.

Most tyrants and terrorists are inspired by a charismatic figure who triumphed in a heroic past. Hitler looked back to Napoleon and Frederick the Great. Lenin measured his achievements against the record of the Paris Commune of 1870.

Zarqawi's role model was twelfth century Arab fighting king Nur ad-Din Zanki. Zanki had two missions in life: to drive the Crusaders from Arab lands and to crush Shiite rulers. Few understood the importance that Zarqawi placed on him. In interviews with Iraq and Zarqawi specialists at the State Department, Defense Department and West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, we found no one who understood the importance that Zarqawi placed on Zanki.

A survey of the available literature on Zarqawi in English shows virtually no reference to Zarqawi's relationship to Zanki. In the Arab world, though, there has been a fair amount of discussion about the two men.

We recently acquired a new, never-before-translated Arabic-language book on Zarqawi, Al Qaeda's Second Generation, by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who has been linked to Hezbollah's al-Manar television network. An independent translation that we commissioned reveals that Zanki was in fact Zarqawi's ideological guiding star. Hussein's book reprints a long personal communication from Saif al-Adel, who heads the military wing of al Qaeda, about Zarqawi. Hussein and al-Adel put great emphasis on the fact that Zanki is Zarqawi's role model.

The bottom line is that the war against al-Qaeda in Iraq has not ended with Zarqawi's death. Hopefully, when a new leader is chosen for al-Qaeda's jihad in Iraq, American intelligence will examine his historical role models -- and use this knowledge to our advantage.

The complete article can be found here.

Zarqawi's elimination: "Was it killing the future leader of al Qaida?"

By Walid Phares

The first question some skeptics asked in the early hours of June 8, 2006 was: Is the elimination of chief terrorist Abu Mus’ab al Zarqawi in Iraq a victory?

Of course it is.

The man who personally executed and ordered the savage assassination of so many Iraqis, Arabs, Europeans, and Americans was a representative of pure evil, in the philosophical and sociological senses of the word; despite his religious trappings, he abided by no human or divine laws.

The taking of innocent hostages and their beheading in front of a camera, the footage of which was sent to al-Jazeera and posted on Salafi websites, is an act disconnected from humanity. In the 1940s, Hitlerian evil engaged in genocide, but its perpetrators did not air their diabolical acts in movie theatres. Zarqawi surpassed the Nazis qualitatively, but thankfully not quantitatively. Regardless of the geopolitical maze in Iraq and in the region at large, and regardless of the state of the terror war, the elimination of this Jihadi terrorist has put an end to an ongoing crime against humanity.

In addition to American, Western, Arab, Middle Eastern, and other families who had to mourn for victims of Zarqawi’s evil, Iraqis of all backgrounds suffered under this terrorist’s wrath for years. Not only did he attempt to obstruct the political process and to threaten all citizens who dared to move forward with democratic practices or modernity, but he forced many areas of the country, especially the Sunni triangle, to move backward into the Middle Ages.

Iraq and Zarqawi couldn’t co-exist: It was either the country or the terrorist and, at the end of the day, the terrorist was eliminated -- a lesson to all his followers.

Contributing Experts' Media Appearances on al-Zarqawi's Death

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson on Fox News Channel's O'Reilly Report tonight: AZ's death will have some effect on the insurgency, but the devolution of jihad worldwide into homegrown cells through the Internet and Saudi-funded Wahabbism mean his death has little impact outside Iraq. So the Al Qaeda organization might be on the verge of collapse, we're in post-Al Qaeda phase. Al-Zarqawi probably appointed the next-in-line and they can reconstitute.

Walid Phares on Fox News Channel's "Big Story" (click on the "Video" link at the Fox News site): Core supporters saying "this is what Allah wanted but he wasn't that important." Most interesting development is that Iraqis and Jordanians have more courage and realized that with patience, he could be taken out. AZ couldn't displace the political process, and his death creating a momentum for democracy that US should push. Iraqi Generals on Arab TV said they will take action to push Syria to end jihadists' incursions into Iraq.

Evan Kohlmann on al-Zarqawi's use of the internet on NBC News tonight: “Zarqawi really created the idea of a comprehensive information war on the Internet." He pioneered “the use of the Internet in order to provide disinformation, in order to provide support, in order to recruit people directly over the Internet.”

I was interviewed by Dan Raviv of CBS News for "The Death of a Terrorist," broadcast tonight on CBS Radio stations. You can listen to it on the CBS News site (MP3 file). I discussed the al-Zarqawi legacy and his network's reach into Africa and Europe.

Contributing Experts' Posts on the al-Zarqawi Network

By Andrew Cochran

Our Contributing Experts have reported often on the scope of the network of terrorists and sympathizers who were trained by or pledged allegience to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi:

Evan Kohlman:
The Inside Story of Al-Qaida's First Terrorist Training Camp in Iraq
The State of Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia, Connections to Zarqawi in Iraq
Scoffing at Allegations of Ties to Saddam, Zarqawi's Al-Qaida Claims Link to Egyptian Islamic Jihad Elite
Jordanian Zarqawi Ally Resurfaces in Chechnya
Al-Qaida Identifies Suicide Bomber in Iraq as Saudi Trained in Afghanistan, Chechnya
GSPC: "Defeating Evil America" Will Bring Peace to Algeria
GSPC Leader Reflects on Murder of Algerian Diplomats in Iraq
The Jihad in Iraq: An Engine for International Terrorism
GSPC Commander in Algeria Hails Al-Qaida in New Video
Al-Qaida Affiliates Respond to Zarqawi's Call

Steven Emerson & Lorenzo Vidino of The Investigative Project on Terrorism:
Zarqawi's European network
Our New Reports on Terrorist Threats to Italy and the Muslim Brotherhood in France

Olivier Guitta:
Al Qaida targeting Fatah leaders?
Al Qaeda's Master Plan
GSPC's spiritual leader killed
French interests possible targets of Zarqawi and GSPC
The GSPC cell arrested in France was onto major acts of terror

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross:
Zarqawi A Threat to Europe?

Douglas Farah:
Terror Finances, Foreign Fighters and Claims of Victory

NOTE: Posts prior to April 20, 2006, might contain typographical errors as a result of the transfer of all posts from the first CT Blog website.

Jordan arrests Zarqawi's brother-in-law and an Al Jazeera journalist live!

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, a few hours ago, while an Al Jazeera journalist was interviewing Abu Kadama, Zarqawi's brother-in-law in Zarqa, Jordan, the broadcast was suddenly interrupted, most probably by Jordan. Because when the journalist came back on the air, he said that Abu Kadama had just been arrested by Jordanian services. Then a second sudden interruption occured, and when the Al Jazeera anchor appeared, he announced that his journalist colleague had also been arrested by Jordan. Keep in mind that Jordan's King Abdullah was one of Zarqawi's main targets. In light of recent foiled Al Qaeda attacks in Jordan, it seems reasonable to think that Abdullah wanted to show his resolve against Zarqawi's sympathizers.

The demise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, courtesy of Task Force 145 (with airstrike video)

By Bill Roggio

Photograph of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi after his death. Click image to view.

UPDATE: You can see the airstike video with commentary by Maj. Gen. Bill Caldwell at the Washington Post website or a Flash version of the strike only on Michelle Malkin's "HotAir" site.

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the late commander of al-Qaeda in Iraq, has provided the Coalition forces and the Iraqi people with a moral victory against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Zarqawi was a powerful symbol of modern jihad, a ruthless commander willing to exercise brutality on the battlefield. Zarqawi is a legend in the jihadi community, who is often said to rival Osama bin Laden in popularity among the younger breed of jihadists. Zarqawi's image and audio and video tapes are widely distributed, and his trademark skullcap a fashion statement.

Task Force 145 was very likely the linchpin in the success in killing Zarqawi, Sheik Abd-Al-Rahman, his spiritual adviser, and other lieutenants during a high-level meeting. Over the past two months, TF-145 has conducted numerous raids and killed or captured numerous high-level members of Zarqawi's organization in the area directly north and west of Baghdad. Known strikes against senior members of al-Qaeda in Iraq's organization were executed in Baghdad, Ramadi, Yusifiyah, Muthana Chemical Complex at Lake Thar Thar, Samarra, Karbala, Jublayah, and Balad. Zarqawi was finally identified and targeted in Baquba, a city with an entrenched insurgent presence. “Tips and intelligence from Iraqi senior leaders from his network led forces to al-Zarqawi and some of his associates who were conducting a meeting approximately eight kilometers north of Baqubah when the air strike was launched,” according to Multinational Forces-Iraq.

Task Force 145's operations were not random, but a concerted operation based on intelligence on al-Qaeda's organization and whereabouts in the region north and west of Baghdad. Zarqawi and al-Qaeda focused their efforts on the Iraqi capital of Baghdad in an effort to influence the western media, incite a civil war and destabilize the nascent Iraqi government. This required moving their operational capabilities closer to the capital.

Major Task Force 145 operations lead to death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Click to view map.

The tightening of al-Qaeda's network in and around Baghdad provided Task Force 145 an opportunity to focus on Zarqawi's organization. Task Force 145 systematically began to dismantle al-Qaeda's organization from the bottom up. Cell leaders, financiers, facilitators and military commanders were rolled up in a series of target raids, slowly degrading al-Qaeda's capabilities while opening a window to al-Qaeda's organization and operations. The raids provided intelligence for follow-up strikes, which ultimately led to the attack of Zarqawi's safe house.

Despite the popular perception that killing or capturing al-Qaeda mid-level commanders is a game of "whack-a-mole", the reality is al-Qaeda in Iraq has limited resources and a finite pool of expertise. Over time, as less experienced leaders fill the positions of the more experienced, this impacts al-Qaeda's organization in effectiveness, leadership, ability to network and degrades operational security.

The death of Zarqawi will not end the insurgency or bury al-Qaeda in Iraq. The race is now on to find a suitable replacement to Zarqawi. His organization has been degraded over the past year, and Zarqawi's death will show the west the real status of the Mujahideen Shura Council. Zarqawi's last audiotape called for a furthering of the Sunni-Shiite divide, a position which al-Qaeda senior command was at odds with (not from a philosophical perspective but from an operational perspective - al-Qaeda was concerned with alienating the Muslim world while fighting the "far enemy" in Iraq.) Another question which is raise is who will succeed Zarqawi in his international terrorist organization, al-Tawhid wa'l-Jihad (Unity and Jihad Group), which operates in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and his network extends into Northern Africa and Europe.

Comments by a U.S. soldier in Baghdad this morning to his parents here: "I know it is the middle of the night there, but have you heard the news? We got Zarqawi. We bombed his place just outside of Baqubah and got a lot of them. It is so great! The guys really needed this. We are all so proud."

So are we.

al Jazeera's commentators: "Zarqawi's death won't stop al Qaida"

By Walid Phares

Reacting to the killing of Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi in Iraq, pro-Jihadi commentators on al Jazeera rushed to assert that the "death of Zarqawi won't weaken al Qaida but will actually unify the organization." Abdelbari Atwan, the editor of al Quds al Arabi accused Jordanian and US intelligence of penetrating the inner circles of Zarqawi and were successful in getting to him." He added that the killing of Zarqawi was coordinated with the appointment of the ministers of defense and interior in Baghdad.

Projecting further terror, Atwan said the "Jihadists will increase their operations in Iraq. For the more the organization is repressed the more it will produce Jihadists." He stated that in any event, Zarqawi was isolated inside the organization and restrained to military operations." Other commentators also stated that the near future will show that al Qaida is a movement not a group of supporters to one man.

But Iraqi leaders, including the speaker of the Kurdish Parliament, responded on al Jazeera that "the Iraqi people has memorized the names of all those who were involved in Terror against civilians, and will continue the struggle"

(More analysis later)

ABU MUSAB AL-ZARQAWI KILLED IN U.S. BOMBING ATTACK (updated with pictures)

By Andrew Cochran

LAST UPDATE AT 10:45 am ET. “Today, al-Zarqawi was terminated” (Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki). From the AP story: "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida's leader in Iraq who led a bloody campaign of suicide bombings and kidnappings, has been killed in an air strike, U.S. and Iraqi officials said Thursday...a major victory in the U.S.-led war in Iraq and the broader war on terror." The attack occurred 8 km north of Baqubah (about 30 miles north of Baghdad). Press conference by U.S. General Casey and Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki: U.S. air strike followed by Iraqi police raid confirms that al-Zarqawi and 7 aides killed - facial recognition, fingerprints, and DNA testing confirmed he was killed at 6:15 pm on June 7 in Iraq. U.S. General also reports that AZ's "spiritual advisor," Sheik Abd-Al-Rahman, also killed. Multinational Force press release reports that “tips and intelligence from Iraqi senior leaders from his network" led to the raid. Jordanian officials claim that they assisted in the identification of the safehouse location for coalition forces. You can read a summary of al-Zarqawi's life and murderous acts on the CNN site and on the Washington Post site. News reports also indicate that Iraqi police captured one aide and a computer at the scene. Fox News reports two 500-pound laser-guided bombs hit the safehouse - see the result below.

At the Multiunational Force press conference in Iraq this morning, Maj. Gen. Caldwell added that the strike enabled coalition forces to also raid 17 other targets in Iraq and find a "treasure trove" of intelligence. Gen. Caldwell said they didn't want to strike the other targets prior to the air strike. This further indicates that the strike was the result of detailed planning and pursuit over several weeks.

President Bush this morning (White House transcript): Our forces "delivered justice...This violent man will never murder again...this is a severe blow to al-Qaida in Iraq." He complimented U.S. and Iraqi forces for their "persistence and determination" and warned that the "difficult mission" in Iraq continues, with more violence ahead.

Al Qaeda in Iraq confirmed Zarqawi's death: "We herald the martyrdom of our mujahid (warrior) Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq... and we stress that this is an honour to our nation," signed by Zarqawi's deputy, Abu Abdulrahman al-Iraqi.

Bill Roggio has reported here on the operations of U.S. Task Force 145, a Special Ops unit that was chasing AZ constantly and was probably involved in this raid. Selected posts:
Iraqi Government Forms; Recent Counterterrorism Ops
Task Force 145 Strikes in Latifiyah; Nets Abu Mustafa
The Battle of Yusifayah

Evan Kohlmann is one of the world's leading experts on al-Zarqawi and his network. His "Chart of Major Sunni Militant Groups in Iraq," which included the al-Zarqawi network, is a reference used and cited worldwide, including by U.S. military forces in Iraq. Some of his recent and pertinent posts here on CTB:
More Stories of Fallen Al-Qaida Fighters in Iraq
The Inside Story of Al-Qaida's First Terrorist Training Camp in Iraq
Interview with Co-Founder of Al-Qaida's anti-Shiite Omar Corps in Iraq
Sunni Iraqi Insurgents Deny Reported Friction With Zarqawi
Notes on the New Zarqawi Video
The State of Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia, Connections to Zarqawi in Iraq
You can also see more on Evan's site, GlobalTerrorAlert.com.

Walid Phares analyzed AZ's sole video in "Troubles Behind the Al-Zarqawi Video?

Steven Emerson on MSNBC today: Combination of intel from Iraqi and Jordanian sources led to the safehouse; Jordanians confirmed location just prior to the strike. Strike "decapitates" AQ in Iraq, which will be in some disarray until a new leader is anointed.

Iraqi bloggers are understandably rejoicing - see "Iraq the Model." Prime Minister al-Miliki also announced his nominees to head the Defense and Interior Ministries, and the Iraqi Parliament confirmed them quickly, an important development in the formation of the new Iraqi government.

As of 9:55 am ET, crude oil is down about $1 a barrel, after being down more earlier. Gold is down over $12/ounce. Don't expect al-Zarqawi's death to have any long-term impact on financial markets - the difficulties in Iraq's oil industry are due to a myriad of sources, including Sunni insurgent attacks and corruption.

Pictures of the press conference, site of al-Zarqawi's death, and dead al-Zarqawi

The "Mahakem al Islamiya" are connected to al Qaida

By Walid Phares

With the latest news confirming the control of Somali capital Mogadishu by the "Union of Islamic Tribunals" (UIT) a new era of Jihad has begun in the Horn of Africa. From my observation of the development of Islamists movements in Somalia, at least since the last US involvement in 1992-1993, it took more than a decade for the Jihadi networks to penetrate the previously existing militias formed by the tribes. The UIT, or "Ittihad al mahakem al Islamiya" is not just another Muslim militia in Somalia, as al jazeera is attempting to project, so that Western media would follow. The "Mahakem" (tribunals), although initially supported by some tribes are now a structured Islamist-Jihadist militia, fully controlled by the Salafi-Imams of the area. Former members of the "Mahakem" are revealing that behind this force, the hands of al Qaida (East Africa) are omnipresent. The former members said the prime objective of this organized force is to assert its power in the capital first. In other words, the "Mahakem" wants to "digest" this first victory first.

In fact, the Islamist militia, as soon as it took control of the city, contacted members of the official government and proposed to become the "legs" of the executive branch. This attractive proposition could be accepted by the current members as an interim solution. The "Mahakem" in fact have chased out members of the cabinet into the areas outside Mogadishu, claiming the latter are "War Lords" which in fact is true. But all members of the Government were warlords, including the leaders of the "Mahakem." One of the so-called warlords defeated by the Jihadist group was the minister in charge of disbanding the militias!

In short, the shrewd planners behind the "Mahakem" practiced the strategy of preemptive strike against the competitors and secured the capital. They prompted their move for fear of the "Union for Peace and Against Terrorism" said to be supported by the US. In reality, according to sources in Somalia, the Jihadists were moving steadily to secure the capital, which in turn forced their opponents to form the counter terrorism coalition. And as soon as this coalition began to act, the "Mahakem" moved swiftly to secure the center of the country. So, contrary to the Salafist "stories" circulating on the web and al jazeera's powerful news line since last week, it was the Jihadists (al Qaida inspired) who preempted the move of their adversaries. Nevertheless, a new "front" is now open in the Horn of Africa. Now, it is important that the new strategy promised by the US President takes into consideration that the move of the "Mahakem" is serious. More analysis is coming.

Former Top Canadian Security Official, Who Beat CAIR-Canada in Lawsuit, to Testify Before U.S. House Subcommittee

By Andrew Cochran

Tomorrow, the U.S. House Judiciary immigrations subcommittee will hold a hearing to support the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative, which would largely end passport-free travel in the Western Hemisphere, in accordance with recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. One of the witnesses will be David Harris, former chief of strategic planning for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS). According to a story in U.S. News & World Report, Harris pins partial responsibility for the plot on (quoting the story) "the Saudi-funded, Wahhabist-oriented Islamic lobbying groups that have spread stories of discrimination and cited statistical 'studies' and anecdotes to demonstrate Canada's 'Islamaphobia.'" That propaganda leads Canadian Muslims to believe they are oppressed and abused, leading them towards terrorism.

And Harris knows a lot about about the power of those lobbying groups. He was sued in 2004 by CAIR-CAN, the Council on American Islamic Relations Canada, for allegedly implying that CAIR-CAN was involved in terrorism. On April 19 of this year, CAIR-CAN issued a statement claiming that Harris "settled" the suit. Harris issued a statement on April 24, stating that CAIR-CAN misled the public in its claim of a "settlement:"

I believe implicitly in the accuracy of all that I said on the radio program. I have withdrawn not a word, and never shall. In the course of the interview I posed a question: Shouldn't someone be looking into CAIR-CAN's relationship with its more-troubling American relative, CAIR? For this, I was sued for libel...CAIR-CAN and Dr. Khan dropped their suit, cold. No damages, no costs, no apology, no clarification.

So tomorrow's hearing should be interesting on several fronts. I hope Judiciary Committee Members ask Mr. Harris to discuss his claim that CAIR-CAN is a subsidiary of the U.S.-based CAIR and to provide details of the sources for the propaganda aimed at young Canadian Muslims. Other witnesses will include Janice Kephart, former counsel to the 9/11 Commission, and a senior DHS official.

Media Death Watch in action on purported kidnapped Canadian soldier

By Bill Roggio

Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan: Earlier this week, Glenn Reynolds reproduced an informal email from Afghanistan, which included an anecdote about the Canadian media maintaining the "Death Watch" (their own words) at Kandahar Airfield. The reporters are restricted to maintaining a presence at the airbase to report on potential deaths or wounding of Canadian soldiers. The soldiers resent the media for this, and the reporters do not like manning the DeathWatch as well. They are at the mercy of the news bureaus, who crave the sensational stories.

Tonight I had the displeasure of witnessing the Death Watch in action. An Al Jazeera report, based on an unsubstantiated claim from an unnamed Taliban source, indicated a Canadian soldier was kidnapped in Afghanistan. Reuters repeated the unsubstantiated claim, which later morphed into an unspecified number of Coalition troops. Canada's Globe and Mail, in a rush to press, misidentified the lead Canadian Public Affairs Officer, Major Scott Lundy, as the "spokesman for NATO Special Forces" (the webmaster later corrected this and removed the reference to Major Lundy altogether.)

The Canadian media rushes into action, trying to get to the bottom of the story which very likely is a Taliban information operation. Cell phones are buzzing, reporters are pressing the public affairs officers for quotes. The Death Watch is in full news-gathering mode. Media outlets in Canadian are requesting live interviews and quick columns from their reporters at the airfield. The Canadian forces are in turn conducting a headcount but discount the reports, as this has happened in the past. If this is a false report, as it likely is, the propaganda machine of al-Qaeda and the Taliban has succeeded yet again in manipulating the Western media into doing their bidding. The DeathWatch continues as I submit this post, and Al Jazeera is downplaying the reports of the kidnapping.

Map of Southeastern Afghanistan. Click to view.

Elsewhere in southeastern Afghanistan, there is real news to report, and it is the Taliban that is taking the brunt of the casualties. As the hot and dusty Afghan summer begins, NATO is increasing its presence in Afghanistan, particularly in the Southeastern provinces of Helmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar and Zabul. NATO forces are expected to surge from 9,000 to 17,000 troops by the end of the summer. The U.S. commitment of troops in Afghanistan is expected to decrease by one bridage, as forces are decreased from 23,000 to 20,000 troops. This results in a net gain of 5,000 NATO troops during the summer.

Kandahar Airfield plays an important role in the buildup of NATO forces in the southeastern portion of the country. NATO forces surge into Kandahar Airfield prior to the deployment to the provinces, swelling the base population to over 8,000 at times.

The U.S. Army is patrolling the Arghandab Valley in Zabul province. Zabul remains a major focus of Taliban efforts to dismantle the local police forces. Five police were killed and four kidnapped in the provincial capital of Qalat. Earlier in the week, five police are said to have murdered seven of their brethren and then joined the Taliban. Based on the brutality of the incident, the police were likely Taliban infiltrators rather than defectors.

British forces engaged in their first round of combat in the Naz Zad district of Helmand province, killing five Taliban. Coalition forces (a generalization used when referring to Special Operations units) killed three Taliban. France, Britain, Holland, Canada, America, Australia and a host of other nations have special operations forces operating from Kandahar Airfield.

The Afghan National Army and Police, along with U.S. Army, killed thirteen Taliban while retaking the southern district of Chora in Uruzgan. In the northeastern province of Kunar, two U.S. soldiers were killed during a Taliban suicide attack. Taliban leader Mullah Omar has called for the Taliban to leave the tribal lands and take the fight into Afghanistan.

The state of transatlantic ties on security

By Olivier Guitta

In a follow up to the paper I cowrote with Sally Mc Namara for ALEC in January, I just published in TCS Daily a more detailed study on transatlantic ties on security issues.
You can read the whole paper here.
Here is an excerpt:

Even though recent headlines have portrayed a rift between Europe and the US regarding terrorism issues, one shouldn't jump to conclusions. While the CIA "black sites" (unofficial jails installed mostly in Eastern Europe) issue has somewhat poisoned the public debate in Europe, as with many issues, such is often posturing by European politicos for the sake of the public. Indeed, behind the scenes, European governments are still by and large quietly cooperating with the US. This trend has actually accelerated since the London bombings of July 2005.

Cooperation on terrorism

Since Europe has become one of the main battlegrounds in the fight against Islamist terrorism, terrorist activity and the presence of terrorist support networks in Europe remains a source of concern for the US Administration. Now more than ever, the outcome of European counterterrorism efforts can have a direct impact on US national security. Poor European homeland security is now making the United States more vulnerable, and paradoxically strong US homeland security is making Europe more vulnerable. It looks like politicians from both sides of the Atlantic have gotten the message loud and clear -- especially after the Madrid and London bombings.

Transportation

Under its Container Security Initiative, the United States had secured permission from some EU countries including France and Germany to deploy specially trained US Customs Service officials to select European ports to monitor shipping manifests and inspect cargo bound for the United States. But most European governments refused implementing background checks and biometric devices for seafarers. Europeans also denied US initiative to share information about the ultimate ownership of vessels.

In May 2004, the United States and EU reached an agreement permitting airlines operating flights to or from the United States to provide US authorities with passenger name record (PNR) data in their reservation and departure control systems within 15 minutes of a flight's departure. This accord formalizes a practice in place since March 2003 that remains controversial because of fears that it compromises EU citizens' data privacy rights; the most contentious issues relate to the length and type of data stored. But late last year, Philippe Leger, the advocate general of the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice, called for the annulment of the deal that provides US counterterrorism authorities with information about air passengers, arguing the measure insufficiently protects privacy. In doing so, Leger sided with the European parliament which brought the case and against the EU executive commission and the Council of member states. The decision was confirmed by the European Court of Justice just a few days ago.

Tapping into Old Networks: Understanding the Malaysian Arrests

By Zachary Abuza

The Malaysian government recently announced that between March 16 and April 3 they had arrested 12 individuals who were part of the Darul Islam (DI) organization; authorities allege that they were planning a string of bombings (The Star, May 31). The Malaysian authorities went to great lengths to insist that the 12 individuals—three or four Indonesians, two Filipinos and six Malaysians—were neither members of Jemaah Islamiya (JI) nor the Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM).

To continue this article click here.

Small Band in Congress Continues to Press the UAE

By Douglas Farah

A small but determined bipartisian group in Congress continues to press the United Arab Emirates for accountability on several important fronts.

In a recent letter to UAE ambassador Al Asri Al Dhahri, the group asked for further information on UAE's efforts crack down on the use of diamonds and gold by terrorist and criminal groups, the operations of Viktor Bout, monitoring hawalas and other informal value transfer systems and money laundering.

The letter is signed by Reps. Sue Kelly of New York, the Republican vice chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Massachusetts Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch, Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley and California Democratic Rep. Diane Watson.

The letter rightfully acknowledged the UAE's initial steps on some fronts, but pointed out the remaining dangers and that much remains to be done. It follows up on issues the administration has long lost interest in.

"We believe that weaknesses in the UAE's financial defenses tie directly to the ability of nuclear proliferators and terrorist operatives to successfully operate in the UAE," the letter said. My full blog is here

Victory of Islamists in Somalia Creates a Safe Haven for Terrorists

By Douglas Farah

The victory of radical Islamist militias in Somalia, with the subsequent vow of their leaders establish an Islamist state, highlights the dangers of festering stateless areas and the attractions they present for terrorists, transnational criminal organizations and other armed, non-state groups.

The victory also highlights the limits of U.S. power in those regions of the world. Despite some covert U.S. support for the secular warlords in the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism-the amount is not known-and the clear efforts of the U.S. Joint Combined Task Force-Horn of Africa to keep the situation from ending like this, the possibility again exists of an enclave that will provide al Qaeda and its affiliates with a safe haven to train, practice and seek refuge.

It is not clear what the U.S-backed alliance is or what it really represented except for several of the most violent elements of Somalian society that were not in the Islamist camps. Nor is it entirely clear what the Islamist groups represent other than a desire to install Sharia law across the land.

This is similar to the advantages enjoyed by al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, although the Taliban had a semblance of a central government, while Somalia does not. My full blog is here.

Congress to Consider NSA Subpoenas and Assess Situations in Syria and Iran

By Andrew Cochran

The terrorism-related hearings this week in Congress include a special hearing by the Senate Judiciary Committee at 2 pm ET today to consider whether to issue subpoenas for a future hearing on the NSA surveillance program. The House International Relations Committee's Middle East subcommittee meets tomorrow to assess the results of the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act, passed almost two years ago, and UN Ambassador John Bolton will testify. The House Armed Services Committee meets on Thursday to assess the geopolitical threat from Iran. You can see the full schedule and details of this week's open hearings here (Acrobat file).

Europeans worried about terror attacks against nuclear facilities

By Olivier Guitta

After the recent spectacular arrests in London and Toronto, European services are on the lookout.
For instance, for the first time ever, the new 2005 Swiss Federal Police report mentions a possible attack against Switzerland: "Switzerland was not a target of Islamist terrorism in 2005. However, it must be assumed that jihadis could be residing in the country. In view of recent developments in jihadi ideology, terrorist attacks in Switzerland– an integral part of the European field of operation – are becoming an increasing possibility."
If even tiny super neutral Switzerland is getting concerned, then it is getting serious.

Also, French services are quite worried about terror attacks against some of their nuclear facilities. According to a French policeman cited by Le Figaro at the end of 2003, there was reliable intel of a potential transatlantic flight being hijacked and crashed into nuclear facilities or hydraulic dams. There was already a precedent of a terror attack against a French nuclear facility. It happened back in 1982 when a group linked to Carlos the Jackal shot rockets against a central being built.
Even though French facilities are well protected against a jetliner attack, specialists are more worried and more vulnerable to an attack originated by a flying ultra light motorized vehicle. Interestingly, European services have known about the repeated purchases of these vehicles by Palestinian terror groups in the recent past.

House Likely to Stumble into Cutting Counterterrorism Programs

By Michael Kraft

This Thursday, if the tentative House schedule holds up and there are no unexpected amendments, members will vote to cut the Administration’s funding request for programs to counter terrorism overseas, despite all the speeches that it is better to fight the terrorists abroad than at home.

The cuts were buried in the Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill for Fiscal Year 2007 that the Appropriations Committee approved shortly before the Memorial Day recess.

If the past is any indication, the full House will probably go along next week with the Committee’s recommendations most members will be unaware that deep in the fine print of the committee report are funding cuts that undermine the fight against international terrorists.

It happened last year, and the year before, as if 9/11 and subsequent terrorist against our allies overseas never took place.

Members will be voting on the $21.3 billion Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill that cut the Administration’s request to $122.5 million for the Antiterrorism Training Assistance Program (ATA). The Administration requested $135.6 million for the ATA program, which is run by the State Department and not only provides training to foreign officials but also helps develop working relationships.

Steven Emerson: Al Qaeda Plotting to Attack U.S. Targets - Expect Indictments

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson was interviewed today on MSNBC about the Canadian jihadist plots and arrests. But his most provocative comments, about investigations underway in the U.S. of Al Qaeda plots, came near the end of the interview. You can see the interview on the website of The Investigative Project on Terrorism (Windows Media file). Here is a partial transcript of today's interview (emphasis mine):

ALEX WITT: Okay, Steve, the authorities say that the suspects arrested in Canada, these guys obtained three tons of ammonium nitrate. Can you put this in perspective for us, how dangerous this is?

STEVEN EMERSON: Three tons is three times the amount that was used to blow up the Albert Murrah building in Oklahoma City in 1995. A Canadian official said yesterday it is an astonishing and startling amount, unprecedented in terms of the acquisition. Other types of arrests in the last ten years of people who were planning operations, we are talking about maybe one ton at most. Three tons is an incredible amount that was designed to carry out attacks against multiple locations.

WITT: How hard is it to get a hold of?

EMERSON: Ammonium nitrate, as you know, is not that difficult to get a hold of. When you are dealing with three tons, however, it’s going to trigger some suspicion on the part of the sellers, in terms of who they are selling to. As I understand it, the Canadian government arranged a contrived sell to make the purchase for those that were indicted yesterday. So they were in total control of the entire amount of the ammonium nitrate at all times.

WITT: What do your sources tell you, Steve? Any kind of a similar scenario, similar plots like this being hatched in the United States or have they been?

EMERSON: I think that the public will be surprised by some of the other indictments that may be issued later this year or early next year. There are various Al Qaeda cases being worked on by the U.S. government- the F.B.I., Department of Justice, Treasury- and these cases have still not been made public, and some of them involve plots against American targets.

Kabul accident changes ISAF driving rules; Suicide attacks in Kandahar

By Bill Roggio

Traffic in downtown Kabul. Click to view.

The fallout from last week's traffic accident and subsequent riots has reached the international troops. On last week's radio interview with Rob Breakenridge, I predicted Coalition forces would soon be forced to moderate their driving habits. Today, Lt. Gen. David Richards, the commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), indicated his troops' behavior on the roads is now an issue. "There are too many in the (U.S.-led) coalition, ISAF, international community who drive too quickly and in an inconsiderate way and we are all determined to improve that so the people here don't look on us as people who don't care about the Afghans," said Lt. Gen. Richards, who commands the 9,000 troops in ISAF, which is expected to increase to 15,000 by the end of the month. The 22,000 troops under U.S. command are likely to receive similar instructions in the near future.

Tim Lynch, a former Marine major and the country manager for World Security Initiatives, a private contracting group with over 700 employees throughout Afghanistan, stated a large majority of the driving problems are cause by new entrants to the Afghan theater, both in the military and the private sector, and particularly those who served in Iraq. The dangerous operational environment in Iraq, with a high incidents of suicide car bomb attacks and roadside bombs, does not translate well to the security situation in Afghanistan. Many soldiers and contractors learn the differences between the countries over time and adapt to the circumstances in Afghanistan.

While the military has a defined chain of command which can set an implement a defined set of rules, the contractors fall outside of the control of a single entity. The Afghan government exercises little control over these businesses, and the contractors are left to police themselves. As foreign and Western contractors can be lumped in with Coalition forces, this has policy implications for the international community in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is still a dangerous place, and Coalition commanders should be careful not to adopt a one size fits all policy for military convoy rules. Kandahar is not Kabul, as events over the past few days demonstrates. Canadian forces have twice been targeted by Taliban or al-Qaeda suicide bombers in the past 48 hours. Four civilians were murdered in Kandahar City after a vehicle borne suicide bomber attacked a Canadian military convoy (initial reports indicated Assadullah Khalid, the governor of Kandahar province, was the target, but a military spokesman denied this) . No Canadians were injured in the attack. Three civilians were killed on Friday after a suicide car bomber missed a Canadian convoy in a village north of Kandahar city. Two Taliban were arrested in Kandahar city after their vehicle was found packed with explosives.

From London to Toronto: Dismantling Cells, dodging their ideology

By Walid Phares

Paris and London, June 3, 2006

Over the past nine months, speeches by Usama Bin Laden, Ayman Zawahiri, other Jihadi cadres and the documents found after the arrest of Terror-architect Abu Mus’ab al Suri all put the West and democracies on notice: the second generation al Qaida is marching. The “Jihad country-list” includes those countries whose troops are engaged in battles against the Terrorists around the world or whose police force is attempting to disrupt the cells at home. Beyond the "regular" countries-targets such as the United States, UK, Australia, Russia, India, Jordan and Israel, many others "infidel" countries made it to the top 20: Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Norway, Belgium, Germany, Portugal, Canada etc. The first type of countries, those who are engaged directly in confrontations with Jihadi networks on battlefields such as Afghanistan and Iraq, are “open targets.” This is the A list. However, countries on the B list are “enemies of the cause” but decisions to strike them fall into the hands of the “local emirs.”

This week two countries from the A and B lists witnessed ponctual counter Terrorism operations leading to the arrests of dozens suspects and the foiling, according to authorities, of potential future bombings: Great Britain and Canada. The security moves were successful but were the public statements as focused?

Were Canadian Jihadists Targeting Pickering Nuclear Plant? (Updated 6/4)

By Andrew Cochran

"A terror attack potentially three times more devastating than the Oklahoma City bombing has been averted," according to the latest report from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Seventeen people have been arrested to date, and you can see a picture (below) of some of the items seized, as displayed in a news conference today. In addition to Jeff Imm's post below, you'll find excellent coverage on Michelle Malkin's site and at ThreatsWatch, where Steve Schippert notes that it was a Canadian intelligence Internet surveilance program that sparked the investigation into this group, not unlike America's own NSA program which is now under scrutiny.

Scott Newark, Canadian intel veteran who once worked for Steven Emerson, informs me that some arrests were near a nuclear power plant, and it's apparently one of the world's largest, which should really raise a few neck hairs. Here is a description of the plant:

Located on the shores of Lake Ontario just east of Toronto and nestled in the community of Pickering, is one of the world’s largest nuclear generating facilities consisting of the Pickering A and Pickering B Nuclear Generating Stations. Each station has four CANDU (CANadian Deuterium Uranium) reactor units and together they have a total output of 4,120 megawatts (MW), enough to serve a city of two million people.

UPDATE, 6/4: CT Blog fan Maureen Chill wrote me with great information, starting with an interesting blog post: "The father of one of the accused, Shareef Abdelhaleen, is an Egyptian immigrant who came to Canada with his son 20 years ago. He works as an engineer on contract at Atomic Energy of Canada." And that blogger quotes a report that Mr. Abdelhaleen posted bail for another jailed militant who met OBL in Sudan. Maureen also notes the public support for the arrestees by Imam Aly Hindy, who preaches at a Mosque founded by an Al-Qaida suspect, is a good friend of the infamous Khadr family, and...is a former engineer with Ontario Hydro, which manages the Pickering nuclear plant. Maureen also reminds me of a 2003 Canadian bust, in which the RCMP netted 19 terror suspects in Toronto: "Most of those arrested were students or refugee claimants and all were born in Pakistan... One of the men being investigated was enrolled in a Toronto flight school. Training involved flying over the Pickering nuclear power plant...Two others were once found loitering outside the Pickering facility before dawn..." Curiouser and curiouser....

Chora Police Station Retaken; Kabul Police Chief Sacked

By Bill Roggio

Map of ISAF Mission in Afghanistan. Click to Enlarge.

Coalition and Afghan National Army (ANA) forces retook the Chora district police station in Uruzgan province which was attacked and seized Taliban earlier in the week. This was a joint air assault operation, and Chora received a reinforcement of Afghan National Army troops to bolster security in the region. “Insurgents may have attacked the police headquarters, but they never had the capability to control Chora, as evident of their immediate retreat in the face of Afghan and Coalition forces,” said Lt. Col. Paul Fitzpatrick, the spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force – 76.

Lt. Col. Fitzpatrick is correct, as the Taliban cannot hold territory once taken. A main concern of military officers and security personnel in Kabul is the lack of military and police assets needed to secure the southeastern provinces almost five years after the fall of the Taliban. By all accounts, the police, who are poorly armed and trained, and often are not paid in months, are considered fierce fighters. The security equation in southeastern Afghanistan is beginning to change as NATO implements Stage 3 of the security deployment, and is pushing over 9,000 additional soldiers into southeastern Afghanistan.

A market near Kabul's main police station. Click to Enlarge.

In Kabul, the city remained calm as the political fallout from Monday's riots lands on Kabul's chief of police. President Hamid Karzai sacked General Jamil Junbish for failing to quell the riot, and over 80 generals in the Interior Ministry as part of a shakeup in the ministry. The Interior Ministry commands the Afghan National Police.

This afternoon, on the way to visit a girl's orphanage, I drove past the main Kabul police station after the announcement from the Interior Ministry. Police vehicles were stationed with lights flashing, and numerous police officers were on the street, but no disturbances were reported. The markets remained open and business and traffic was brisk on the street filled with makeshift shops filled with produce, auto parts, building supplies, and various other goods.

Growing Islamist Terror Threat in Canada

By Jeffrey Imm

As shown in the arrest of 17 individuals in the Greater Toronto Area - who police sources define as "Muslims, but not Arabs" there is a growing terrorist threat in Canada. Canada continues to struggle with not just foreign terrorists, but an increasing growth of "homegrown terrorists". These arrests are reported to have links to other terror suspects worldwide and in the United States.

The RCMP indicates the recent arrests averted a massive attack, potentially three times larger than the Oklahoma City bombing, finding three tons of 3 tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer explosives - perhaps targeting a nuclear facility.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) reports that Islamic terrorists are actively seeking out Western converts, who are "highly-prized by terrorist groups for their familiarity with the West and relative ease at moving through Western society",and their 'Canadianness' makes detection more difficult". The Jihadist transformation of Canadians "is highly individual" with some driven to Jihad by relatives, Islamist training camps, web site and other sources. These include well-educated and computer literate individuals, and the Internet is an increasing tool in Canadian jihadist recruitment.

On May 29, CSIS officials testified as to the growth of such "homegrown" terrorists in Canada; Jack Hooper, the CSIS Deputy Director of Operations stated that "We are seeing phenomena in Canada such as the emergence of homegrown, second- and third-generation terrorists" and that "We have cases of white Anglo-Saxon male Protestants converting to the most radical forms of Islam".

The National Post has published a CSIS report on threat of Islamist converts being used for terrorism.

A CSIS report was recently reported to have anticipated terrorist attacks on Canada as "now probable". However, once this was reported, on May 10, CSIS spokespeople quickly minimized the potential concern to the public.

In April, the FBI announced arrest of two Georgia men who had met with three "like-minded Islamic extremists" in Toronto. The US State Department has frequently stated its concerns about the lack of terrorist controls in Canada stating that Canada is a "terror haven", and recently a Canadian senator has echoed those concerns on terror financing laws.

Canada's govt has been inconsistent in handling terrorism, and on May 23, a Canadian federal judge released on bail Al Qaeda suspect Harkat even though he lied about his Al Qaeda links.

Still, for many Canadians, the threat of Jihad is a distant concern. As former RCMP jihadism expert Tom Quiggin has stated: "A clear sense of denial exists in Canada about the degree to which terrorism activity occurs. Political correctness is wielded as a weapon against anyone who dares to speak out. Yet some of the world's most infamous terrorists have operated in Canada almost unhindered for years."

UPDATE: Terror suspects appeared in court on Saturday. The Ontario plot is reported to have worldwide links. This includes a link between Toronto terror suspects with two US suspects in custody based in Georgia: Syed Haris Ahmed and Ehsanul Islam Sadequee.

The National Post reports that Canadian terror arrests of 17 individuals in Toronto area "are linked at least 18 related arrests had already taken place in Canada, the United States, Britain, Bosnia, Denmark, Sweden, and Bangladesh.
The six-month RCMP investigation, called Project OSage, is one of several overlapping probes that include an FBI case called Operation Northern Exposure and a British probe known as Operation Mazhar."

Sunday - Toronto Star reports the following story: "RCMP behind bomb material" - Canadian police controlled the sale of ammonium nitrate as part of "sting" operation to catch terror suspects; Sources told the Star that terror targets included Toronto HQ of CSIS, adjacent to the CN Tower

And yet another news story on the denial of Canadians towards Jihad: Canadians apathetic about terror threat

Monday update: More terror arrests expected, top lawmakers say - several of the accused attended the same two mosques in the Greater Toronto area including Al-Rahman Islamic Centre

Monday update: Plot targeted Peace Tower, police say - targets of the alleged plot included political and economic symbols such as the Parliament Buildings and Peace Tower in Ottawa, along with the CN Tower and Toronto Stock Exchange in Toronto

Monday update - Plot began in chat room

Monday update: Frightened rural Ontario residents describe 'terror-training camp'

Monday update: Schoolkids to terror suspects - many were drawn to Wahhabism

Monday update: After escaping war in Somalia, terror suspects grew up in Toronto

Canadian Islamic Congress Criticizes Canadian Government For Not Funding Research on "Home Grown" Effects of Imported Extremism - Dr. Mohamed Elmasry who is also noted for saying on Canadian television that all Israelis are legitimate targets for suicide bombers

Terror Threat On Southern Border - There Are Already Cases To Prove It

By Bill West

Thanks to IT expert and CT Blog regular reader Timothy Thompson, we learn the deportation case in Seattle against an African Muslim Imam is proving to be yet another indicator the US - Mexican border poses a very real threat to the Nation’s counter-terrorism efforts. Abrahim Sheikh Mohamed is the Imam of the Abu Bakr Mosque in Rainier Valley, Washington and was arrested by ICE agents in November for immigration removal (deportation) violations, allegedly stemming from his falsifying an application for asylum, per reports. Mohamed is now reported to have agreed to give up his fight against deportation. There appear to be issues, however, concerning his true citizenship...whether he is really Kenyan or Somali, and to where he may actually be deported. As previously noted here, and here, while deportation to Somalia is legally possible for the US Government, physically accomplishing such a task is problematic.

Quiet Friday in Kabul; Mullah Abdullah threatens Canada, Britian

By Bill Roggio

Mullah Dadullah on Al Jazeera.

Kabul, Afghanistan: Kabul remains calm as demonstrations failed to materialize following Friday's day of pray in the mosques throughout the city. Afghan, Coalition and United Nations intelligence feared further protests would be organized to punctuate fiery sermons from radical mullahs, but there were no reports of protests or violence in the city. The Afghan government's call for moderation, combined with an increased security presence and a night time curfew has prevented an escalation of violence. "The city has returned to normal," said a long time Western resident of Kabul. It is expected the curfew will be lifted over the weekend.

It was also a quiet day in southeastern Afghanistan. Afghan security forces have yet to launch an offensive to retake the police station in the Uruzgan province town of Chora. Taliban military commander Mullah Dadullah, who was recently thought to have been captured, has recently appeared on Al Jazeera television. Dadullah directly threatens Canadian and British forces, and again is trying to split the NATO alliance. Dadullah states the United States is the enemy, is manipulating the Western alliance, and offers NATO members a false out from the conflict:

"America now wants to avoid the heat of battle, so it pushes other countries towards it. Our operations may increase even more. Our advice to Canada and Britain is to refrain from defending the American propaganda, and from standing by this historic American crime. America wants to get other countries entangled in the crimes it committed in Afghanistan. Our advice to these countries is to avoid the heat of battle, because we will wreak vengeance upon them one by one, like we are doing with the Americans, if they remain here when the Americans are gone."

"Our main enemy is the United States. As for Canada and the other countries - we have no historical enmity with them. But if they want to come here as fighting forces, we will view them just as we view the Americans, and will conduct resistance against them. But if they return to where they came from, and withdraw their forces from here, we will not view them like the Americans, but as countries which we have nothing to do with."

Dadullah also expresses his affinity for al-Qaeda, claims the Taliban has "Continuous Contacts" with Osama bin Laden, coordinates and trains with al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, and commands large regions of southeastern Afghanistan. He also claims unnamed foreign governments, including non-Islamic nations are providing material support to the Taliban. These claims are not new, as the former Taliban Supreme Court Justice Salam claimed Russia and China, along with Afghanistan and Iran provided support to the Taliban back in 2003.

In Pakistan, Maulana Noor Mohammed, "a respected Muslim scholar, leader of the hardline religious party, Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam and member of Pakistan's national assembly," has openly declared his support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and calls on all Pakistanis to fight in Afghanistan. "Should we not support the Taliban movement because a mean [Pakistani President] General Musharraf is our ruler and he has turned the Pakistan Army into a US force which captured 600 Muslim Mujahids [Muslim warriors who fights to defend or expand Muslim lands] and handed them over to the US?" said Noor Mohammed.

Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam is one of six members of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) party, which rules the provincial governments in Pakistan's troubled border provinces of Balochistan and the Northwest Frontier Province, portions of which have become a defacto Taliban and al-Qaeda safe haven.

"I have spoken to the MMA leadership and have asked for debate in the upcoming session of the MMA on announcing clear support for mujahadeen all over the world, including the Taliban," said Noor Mohammed. The MMA has long opposed the dismantling of the Taliban and the U.S. led fight against al-Qaeda. The party has long been thought to be an al-Qaeda and Taliban front, and Maulana Noor Mohammed's latest words reinforce this position. Pakistan is powerless to reign in such "militants," and the Taliban increases its foothold in the tribal regions.

Podcast:

Richard Fernandez from the Belmont Club and I discuss the Kabul riot and the situation in Afghanistan on podcast hosted by Pajamas Media.

Report: Libyan Terrorist Not Likely to Serve as First Ambassador to U.S.

By Andrew Cochran

Jeff Stein, National Security Editor for "Congressional Quarterly" and veteran CT reporter, wrote yesterday that it appears unlikely that an infamous Libyan terrorist, Musa Kusa, will be named Libya's first ambassador to the U.S., as suggested in an overseas publication two weeks ago. Background on Kusa from the CQ story:

Kusa (also spelled Kussa) was “directly involved” in the airliner bombing, according to a top former CIA official. Court documents and a Sept. 5, 2005, report in the Los Angeles Times also place Kusa as the principle author of a 2004 plot to kill King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who was crown prince at the time. Kusa was also involved in the 1989 sabotage of a French airliner that exploded over Niger and killed everyone aboard, according to former State department Libya expert Henry Schuler.

Kusa's plot to kill then-Crown Prince Abdullah also involved former American Muslim Council (AMC) president Abdurahman Alamoudi, who pled guilty in 2004 to federal criminal charges for his role (see Evan Kohlmann's post on Alamoudi's Al Qaeda connections).

Top DHS Official Slams Security Loopholes in Senate Bill

By Michael Cutler

Emilio T. Gonzalez is the head of USCIS (United States Citizenship and Immigration Services). He came from a lobbying organization, Tew-Cardenas LLP, where he had held the position of senior managing director of the firm's governmental affairs practice group. When he was selected, I expressed my concern over his lack of immigration experience on this site and have watched his performance closely. Mr. Gonzalez made it clear at his Sennate confirmation hearings that he had grave misgivings about the ability of USCIS to effectively oversee and administer a guest worker amnesty program. Since assuming his current position as the director of USCIS, he has proven himself to be a "team player" and now claims he can get his agency to deal with a guest worker amnesty program (although he says that the agency would need 6-12 months to conduct background checks on aliens applying for amnesty, not 90 days as in the Senate immigration bill). I can tell you from my experience as a former adjudicator and special agent of the former INS that there is no way that USCIS could do this vital job in years. The GAO has made it clear that USCIS is unable to deal with the mission they have now, let alone a guest worker amnesty program.

However, even Mr. Gonzalez, the "Team Player," had to speak against the sheer madness being proposed by Sen. Ted Kennedy, who managed to include a confidentiality clause in the Senate bill which would prevent the sharing of information with law enforcement agencies contained in any amnesty application, even if the applicant is suspected of involvement in a terrorist organization or serious criminal activities. If the proposal advocated by Senator Kennedy and signed off on by a majority of Senators becomes the law of the land, it will constitute an open invitation to aliens to commit fraud with absolute impunity.

Youssef Nada {of Al Taqwa Fame} On the Offensive Again: Seeking Damages From Swiss Government

By Victor Comras

Attorneys for Muslim Brotherhood Banker Youssef Nada, founder and president of the Al Taqwa Bank, have announced their intention to file a new claim against the Swiss government, on Nada’s behalf, for economic losses, defamation and mental distress allegedly caused by the Swiss Government’s three year investigation of Nada’s alleged involvement in financing terrorism. The charges were dropped last May (2005) when the Swiss Prosecutor’s office concluded it had insufficient usable evidence to bring the matter to trial. At the time concerns were expressed over the lack of cooperation and information sharing between relevant intelligence and investigative agencies in the United States and Switzerland, and the difficulty the Swiss Prosecutor's office had in obtaining and turning intelligence into usable evidence.

Nada, and Al Taqwa were designated by the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee and by the US Treasury in November 2001 for providing financial support to Al Qaeda. Press reports have speculated that Nada is seeking up to 200 million Swiss Francs as damages, but his attorneys have suggested that these stories are "speculative" and that no claim amount has yet been established. Despite UN and US designation, Nada continues to direct a substantial worldwide business network and has reportedly re-established himself as liquidator of at least some of his holdings maintained through Shell companies in Liechtenstein.

Below are some links to previous blogs which explain in greater detail Nada's activities, the charges against him, and his success, so far, in sidestepping the consequences.

Designated Terrorist financier Youssef Nada Wins Another Court Round

Youssef Nada Wins Again! But What About the UN Sanctions?

Swiss Drop their Case Against Al Taqwa and Youssef Nada

Its Time For Switzerland "to Fish or Cut Bait" in the Nada/Al Taqwa Case

The Case Against Youssef Nada and Al Taqwa: Will Switzerland Now Prosecute?

Bank Secrecy Act Compliance Not Getting Easier, But Not Broadening Either

By Andrew Cochran

Developments on the regulatory and legislative front signal at least a temporary halt to efforts to ease Bank Secrecy Act compliance burdens within the U.S. and to broaden its scope to include international wire transfers.

Beginning last year after Hurricane Katrina, I tracked the progress of a regulatory relief bill which included a provision exempting financial institutions from filing Currency Transaction Reports (CTRs) for "seasoned customers," those businesses which have been customers for at least 12 months. Katrina destroyed the systems infrastructure of numerous Southeast banks, adding to the burden of meeting Bank Secrecy Act filing requirements which were toughened by the USA Patriot Act. Federal finanical regulators issued guidance easing the burdens in the affected areas, but bankers and supportive Congressmen wanted some form of permanent relief through the legislation. I wrote then that "Absent Hurricane Katrina, his bill would have had difficulty winning passage" (referring to the bill's sponsor, Rep. Jeb Hensarling). Dennis Lormel posted his comments on the bill's chances here, after posting earlier on the burdens and benefits of BSA regulations. The bill passed the U.S. House, but the CTR proposal was unacceptable to law enforcement, as attested to by the FBI and DHS/ICE before the Senate Banking Committee in April. Right before Memorial Day, the Senate passed a regulatory relief bill without the CTR proposal, and the House sponsors passed a separate "Seasoned Customer CTR Exemption Act of 2006" through committee (and criticized law enforcement for their late opposition). At this point, the CTR proposal has virtually no chance of final approval this year.

A day in Kabul; Police remain a target in Southeast

By Bill Roggio

Kabul, Afghanistan: The city of Kabul remains quiet as evidence emerges that U.S. Army troops fired on demonstrators while leaving the scene of Monday's accident. According to General Amanullah Gozar, Kabul's chief of highway police who was present at the accident, the U.S. convoy started to leave the accident site after the Afghan mob turned violent. Soldiers in one or more lead vehicles fired warning shots into the air, but a soldier in the trailing vehicle apparently fired into the crowd after hearing gunshots from the crowd. General Gozar confirmed the traffic accident was indeed unintentional, and the U.S. troops immediately began to administer medical assistance to those injured. President Hamid Karzai was critical of the soldier's use of weapons, and the Afghan Parliament called for punishment of the American soldiers.

The latest news did not incite further protests or violence. Traffic was heavy on the streets today, and shops and street vendors remained in business. The evening air was filled with sounds of music emanating from several parties. The residents of Kabul left the evening festivities early to beat the 10:00pm nightime curfew, which has been extended indefinitely. The government has asked religious leaders to moderate the tone of the Friday sermons. There are indications demonstration may be held on Friday, and police, military and security companies are preparing for the possibility.

With the specter of Monday's accident and subsequent riots hanging over the city, an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) vehicle struck an Afghan child in Kabul. The child was quickly rushed to the hospital. There have been no repercussions from the ISAF accident.

It should be understood that Kabul possesses four traffic lights, which are infrequently turned on. Describing Afghani drivers as aggressive is an understatement. Driving in the city is chaotic experience; the traffic in New York or Boston look like tame by comparison. It is in this environment, coupled with the threat and fear of suicide bombers, that Coalition forces and security contractors operate. Military units will very likely change the rules for convoys, but authority exists to check the driving habits of the security companies.

In southeastern Afghanistan, the police continue to be the main target of the Taliban, as their training and equipment is lacking compared to that of the Afghan Army and Coalition forces. On Tuesday, a police station was overrun by Taliban forces in the town of Chora in Uruzgan province. Ten policemen have been reported killed and forty are thought to have been captured. The Afghan government has acknowledged the Taliban has gained control of the town and is planning an operation to retake it. Taliban forces also attacked a police convoy in Zabul, killing a senior police official, and two provincial leaders.

The assaults on the Afghan police has not stopped the Afghan people from cooperating with the Afghan government and Coalition forces. Afghans in Kandahar province confronted insurgents staging rockets at Kandahar Airfield, and notified the police. Coalition forces also discovered a large weapons cache in the province. In Paktika province, an Afghan turned in two insurgents accessing their weapons cache to the police. Also in Paktika, two bomb-makers were arrested by soldiers of the 2nd Battalion, 87th Infantry Regiment.

Why Gaddafi is so Afraid of Charles Taylor

By Douglas Farah

It is interesting to see that Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi is slamming Nigeria for turning Charles Taylor over to face justice. News reports quote Gadaffi as saying such a move sets a dangerous precedent for the rest of Africa.

"This also means that every (African) head of state could meet a similar fate -- this sets a serious precedent," he said. Indeed it does. If one butcher goes down, others may follow. For Gaddafi, that must be a terrifying prospect.

Gadaffi, more than any other leader except perhaps Blaise Campoare in Burkina Faso, has good reason to fear Taylor's testimony. It was Gaddafi who trained not only Taylor and his thugs for Liberia, but also Foday Sankoh and other leaders of the Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone, Laurent Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Campaore's troops who assassinated president Thomas Sankara in Burkina Faso, and on and on. My entire blog is here.