Counterterrorism Blog

Al Qaida number two, Dr Ayman Zawahiri issued a new tape calling on the Afghans to "rise against the Infidels (Kuffars) and their agents (the Karzai Government)." Following are few points of analysis and evaluation:

1) Attacking the US for its "killing of innocent Afghans and torture of Muslims."

وندد الظواهري في الشريط الذي بث على شبكة الإنترنت بمقتل مدنيين أفغانيين على يد جنود أميركيين في كابل يوم 29 مايو/أيار

الماضي. واعتبر أن ذلك الحادث سبقته "سلسلة طويلة من قتل الأبرياء والاعتداء في كابل وخوست وأورزغان وهلمند وقندهار وكونار،

Zawahiri develops two lines of attacks. One against Karzai by exposing what he calls "the US role in killing Afghan civilians in Kabul, Khust, Urzogan, Helmind, Kunar and Kandahar." The accusation by Zawahiri of these killings comes at a time when Karzai himself is complaining (and has been for a while) about "civilian losses" in the ongoing battles with Taliban and al Qaida fighters. The design by Zawahiri is to corner Karzai with his own words. As shown clearly from al Jazeera’s panels, the strategy of the Jihadi propaganda and policy architects is to corner Karzai with accusations by Taliban and supporters that he is covering up for these losses. The Afghan Government would be walking on fine lines between responding to Zawahiri, as Karzai did, but also criticizing US and allies for their “faulty tactics.” In the mind of the Jihadi architects of politics, attacking Zawahiri won’t have additional effects on anyone, but criticizing one’s allies will have an effect on all parties: The US, Karzai and the Afghani public.

The second line of attack is to link the attacks "against the Afghan by US forces" as part of aggression against Muslims elsewhere. وسبقه تعذيب المسلمين في بغرام وغونتانامو،. He says: "and all that was preceded by the torture of Muslims in Bagram (Afghanistan) and Guantanamo. Such a "link" is a traditional al Qaida tactic to place their Jihad in
Afghanistan as part of a worldwide movement aimed at "defending Muslims" from a worldwide infidel offensive. "We are being attacked every where" is a classical claim by the Jihadist movement and the radical Islamists" to legitimize their own plans against moderate Muslim Governments.

2) Another track developed by Zawahiri in his last tape is to link the battle against the Kuffars (infidels) in Afghanistan to what he claims as a worldwide "infidel" assault on the "religion" of Islam and particularly the what he calls "desecration of the Koran in Guantanamo" in addition to what he calls the "aggressions by Denmark, France and Italy against the Prophet," in reference of the Cartoons crisis last winter. However, and very interestingly, Zawahiri accuses former President Bill Clinton and former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of praising Salman Rushdie, which means that the Indian-born British author of the book Satanic Verses is not only on Iran's list of Terror, but most likely on al Qaida's as well. This also shows that the Jihadists Salafists and their counterparts Khumeinists have "enemies in common."

3) Zawahiri calls on "Muslims in Kabul to rise against the Kuffars (infidels) and single out the "youth of Islam in colleges and universities." Such a call directed at this particular section of the population indicates two matters at least: One is that al Qaida and the Taliban wants to reach a second generation of Jihadis in Afghanistan, one remainder of the previous power base of the Taliban, the students. But at the same time, according to chat rooms and web discussions and exchanges, al Qaida and the Taliban are concerned about the "new trends among the youth in Afghanistan," influenced by democracy, pluralism, the rights of women and other freedoms unavailable under the medieval Taliban. As I have argued in previous analysis, Zawahiri and the Jihadists have their future concerns as well.

4) Another sentence towards the end of the audio speech says the objective of the Taliban counter attacks in Afghanistan is to "reinstate the Sharia" and provide "security and justice." Such an affirmation shows that the Taliban elements and the al Qaida remnants are not planning on changing their agenda or widening their political basis. For it is evident that with their perception of "applying the Sharia" and their methods of "security and justice" that the country witnessed from 1996 to 2001, there aren't many in Afghanistan who would be willing to march with the Terrorists to reestablish their regime, even while President Karzai is complaining about the number of civilian casualties during the war with the Jihadists.

Dr Walid Phares is Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington and author of Future Jihad.