Which Side Is Winning? Two Opposing Views

By Andrew Cochran

With Zarqawi's death, experts and observers are starting to re-assess whether Islamist terrorists, led by Osama bin Laden, or the Western CT community are "winning" or "losing". Personally, I think such exercises are still premature - it seems analogous to what "experts" might have written in early 1944 about World War II, over two years affter Pearl Harbor but before the D-Day invasion (I haven't researched it). I prefer a dynamic assessment of success or failure against a strategic threat, the nature of which has changed since the 9/11 attacks, and I don't trust more conclusive judgments at this point. But it's worth reading both views. Michael Scheuer, former CIA agent and noted author, wrote "Toronto, London and the Jihadi Spring: Bin Laden as Successful Instigator" in the Jamestown Fundation's June 6 edition of "Terrorism Focus." The opposite view is held by Jason Burke, Europe Editor of the UK "Observer," in "Why bin Laden is losing his war of terror" published today. Some excerpts from each:

Scheuer: "It is to say, however, that bin Laden's main goal of using his words, al-Qaeda's actions and a tight focus on what the United States does in the Islamic world to instigate Muslims to join the anti-U.S. jihad has not only found traction, but is increasingly successful worldwide. Today, the United States and Europe are not only confronted by a still undefeated al-Qaeda, but by an increasing number of Muslims in their own populations who—inspired and religiously agitated by bin Laden—are prepared to pick up arms and spend their lives to act on that inspiration."

Burke: "But, even if it is impossible to say that we have won the war on terror, it is equally the case that the terrorists are not doing too well. Bin Laden's strategy has not succeeded. The 'awakening' has not started - at least not yet. And that is not because of 500lb bombs dropped on militants in Baquba, useful in the short term though they might be, but because of the millions of ordinary men and women in the Islamic world who, despite what has happened to them, despite their anger and frustration, their despair and their hopes, have decided that violence is not the answer."

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