July 2006 Archives

Lebanon:Long Term vs. Short Term and Images

By Michael Kraft

The controversy over imposing an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon reflects a basic issue in dealing with terrorism and especially hostage taking –how to solve the short term problem without creating more problems in the long term.

Without acknowledging it because to do so would mean tarnishing the memory of a Republican icon, the Bush Administration apparently is heeding lessons from the Reagan Administration.
During the 1980's, the Reagan Administration talked the tough talk but folded its tents and made deals in reaction to terrorist bombings and hostage-taking in Lebanon by the same terrorist group, Hezbollah, that precipitated the current crisis by crossing the international border to seize Israeli hostages and then launching rockets against Israeli civilians..

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and others calling for an immediate ceasefire seem to have forgotten much history and hard facts of life.

The deaths of civilians in Lebanon are heartbreaking and a major tragedy. There is almost no way one can ignore the dramatic television footage and photos, especially from the village of Qana where a building housing civilians was hit this weekend. It is impossible not to be moved by the scenes on TV. The repeated dramatic airing on Arab television stirs already hot emotions and the numerous human interest stories on Western television add to the pressures for an immediate ceasefire.

These calls, however, are another grasping for short term “solutions” that can lead to more deaths in the future.

President Bush’s stance that a Lebanon ceasefire should be sustainable is not as calloused a response to the immediate suffering as many,especially in the Arab world, contend. Whether or not the President has the Reagan administration in mind, his effort to make sure that Hezbollah is not in a position to create future crises with more rocket launchings and cross-border attacks has a solid basis in relatively recent history.

In the 1980s when Hezbollah took more than three dozen westerners hostage, Reagan Administration officials made deals to solve the short term problem. These were the infamous deals orchestrated by Ollie North to trade antitank missiles to Iran, the prime backer of the Hezbollah hostage takers. But shortly after each American hostage was released, another was taken. And when Reagan withdrew the U.S. peacekeeping force in Lebanon after a Hezbollah suicide bomber killed 241 U.S. Marines, Navy and Army personnel, this was taken as a further sign in the region that the Americans were weak and paper tigers.

Israel’s past hostage deals with Hezbollah added to the perception of weakness when in 2004 they swapped 433 Arab prisoners for the bodies of three Israeli soldiers killed by the Hezbollah and a businessman who had been lured into a trap.

These U.S. and Israeli fixes were short term. They fertilized the ground for long term problems---the growth of Hezbollah, the emergence of other extremist groups such as al Qaeda and especially the Iranian-Syrian supply of an estimated 13,000 rockets and extensive construction of underground tunnels, bunkers and storage facilities. Many of them were deliberately located in civilian areas, a trick used by the PLO before the Israelis drove it out of Lebanon in 1982.

Several additional points need to be made in this age of media-influenced foreign policy:

• Emotional reactions are dangerous -- not just because of street mobs attacking U.N. facilities in Beirut or other forms of violence but because they often affect the judgments of policy makers.

-- The hyperbole by Lebanese officials and others in calling the Qana bombing a “massacre” and war crimes is too often reported at face value, especially when they are silent about Hezbollah’s deliberate firing of rockets packed with ball bearings designed to kill and main Israeli civilians. Initial assertions that Israel deliberately hit civilian targets or killed huge numbers of people often turn out to be unsubstantiated. A recent case was the bomb that hit the U.N. Observer post.U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan originally claimed it was deliberate. However the Canadian media has reported that that a couple days before he was killed, the Canadian Army observer had earlier emailed that Hezbollah was firing at Israel from nearby positions.

-- Exactly what happened in the Qana explosion also may not be clear cut. Israeli officials said that the building collapsed hours after Israel struck a near by launcher emplacement. The suggestionsthat explosives may have been stored in the building may be self serving but there have been media reports that the roof of the building had not been hit, as would normally been the case if the building struck by a bomb. The Israelis had nothing to gain by deliberately hitting a civilian target, and obviously much to lose. If a smart bomb or laser guided bomb went astray it would not be the first time for either Israel or the U.S.

-- The U.S. Israel and other countries have made deals to release hostages because policy makers were affected by the emotions and pressures from family members and the public.

• Pictures may not lie but they can distort. (And in the age of digital photography they can be made to lie.)

-- It is easy for photographers to focus on a destroyed building, such as the Hezbollah headquartersin southern Beirut, but one has to look closely to note that the nearby buildings apparently suffered only superficial damage. Photos of damage to one area of a city can give the false impression that the whole city is destroyed. Demonstrations can be filmed with a tight focus, giving the impression that more people are taking part than is the case.

-- In January, 1983, I went to Beirut as part of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff team to look at proposals for U.S foreign assistance following the Israeli withdrawal the previous year. As a result of watching the television coverage of Israel's invasion to oust the PLO, I half expected to see most of the city leveled. Instead, as we drove in from the south past rows of intact apartment buildings, an American military attaché pointed out the occasional blackened corner apartment that had been burnt out. There had been PLO machine gun nests or rocket launcher in those apartments he said, that were knocked out by Israelis. He said the TV photos had focused on the billowing smoke, making it appear as if the entire building and section of the city was on fire. But in reality, the damage was confined to one or two apartments in a relatively small number of buildings.

(For the record, the proposed foreign assistance program was largely designed to help the Shia residents of southern Lenabon who had been ignored by the Lebanonese government. The program collapsed when Shia terrorists blew up the American embassy in 1983, killing Agency for International Development experts as well as CIA agents and embassy personnel.)

-- In the first Iraq war the U.S. called the fighting to a halt before Saddam Hussein’s armor was destroyed, largely because of TV footage of the “mile of death” – a long line of trucks and other vehicles that had been attacked and burned by American aircraft. Much of the footage focused on the poor drivers of the lead vehicles who were burnt to death in their cabs. Most of the Iraqis in the other vehicles were caught in the traffic jam, jumped out and escaped. Yet the dramatic TV footage and the fears it might make it appear to Arabs as if the U.S. was “piling it on” the Iraqis, was a factor in calling the war short before the elite Republican guard equipment was destroyed. Saddam Hussein thus was left in a better position to attack the Kurds in the north and the marsh people in the south.

One can only wonder whether if real time television coverage existed in World War II, the allied bombing of French and Belgian villages would have caused an outcry to halt the Normandy invasion to roll back Germany’s control of Western Europe.

It is easy and almost par for the course for the U.N. Secretary General, European and Arab officials to react to emotions and photos by calling for an immediate ceasefire in the current Lebanon crisis. But a simple cease fire would allow Hezbollah to re-supply, perhaps with more long range missiles from Iran and Syria and dig in further. Lebanon will be further destabilized. And the next round of fighting is likely to cause even larger numbers of civilian casualties, especially if Hezbollah obtains more large rockets capable of hitting Haifa and perhaps even Tel Aviv and the Israeli military strikes back even harder.

Whatever other elements might be included in an eventual ceasefire deal, they must include arrangements to cut off Syrian and Iranians re-supply of rockets and other weapons to Hezbollah so it does not feel emboldened to launch more cross-border attacks in the future.

A cease fire that allows Hezbollah to claim victory will encourage Iran and the Islamic fundamentalist terrorists who already have left their fatal mark on British, Spanish, Turkish, Iraqi, Saudi, Egyptian, Moroccan, Indonesian, Kenyan and Tanzanian cities in addition to New York and the Pentagon in Washington. The Europeans, Arabs and UN officials who have tried to soft-pedal the threats from fundamentalists and a nuclear equipped Iran and are now clamoring for an immediate cease fire only would be postponing another and perhaps worse crisis.

Short term deals with terrorists too often lead to long term pain.

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Mugniyah's Hidden Hand in Lebanon

By Bill Roggio

Imad Fayez Mugniyah

At the outbreak of war between Israel and Hezbollah, I reported Imad Fayez Mugniyah, Hezbollah's military commander, was likely behind the operation to snatch the Israeli soldiers, and documented Hezbollah and Mugniyah's links to Iran and historical involvement in international terrorism. Dr. Magnus Ranstorp explained Hezbollah's command structure and decision making processes, Mugniyah's likely involvement with the capture of the Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah's links to Iran and Hamas.

On Saturday, the Jerusalem Post reported on Mugniyah's involvement in the current conflict and his past history with Fatah and in Hezbollah. Mugniyah is fingered as the likely operative "behind the abduction of the two IDF soldiers on July 12" as well as "in charge of Hizbullah's rocket unit in south Lebanon."

Hizbullah's top commander in southern Lebanon is a veteran Fatah operative who was very close to former Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat when the PLO was based in Beirut, Fatah officials said over the weekend. They identified the man as Imad Mughniyeh, a former officer in Arafat's Force 17 presidential guard who has been in charge of Hizbullah's military operations in south Lebanon for the past decade.
"Imad Mughniyeh is the overall commander of the Islamic Resistance [Hizbullah's armed wing] in southern Lebanon," said a Fatah official who said he knew Mughniyeh well during the '70s and '80s. "He's nicknamed tha'lab [the fox], and today he's considered the second important figure in Hizbullah after Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. We're very proud to have a Palestinians holding such a high position in Hizbullah," the Fatah official said.

Congress to Review Hamdan Impacts, Border Security, GWOT Status

By Andrew Cochran

Several Congressional committee will hold open terrorism-related hearings this week in and outside Washington:

August 1, 2006

House Armed Services Committee
Northern Border National Security Concerns
Full committee field hearing on "National Security Concerns on the Northern Border."
Witnesses: Air National Guard Brig. Gen. Michael Peplinski, commander of the 127th Wing, Selfridge Air National Guard Base; Chief Patrol Agent John Bates, sector chief of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency; Coast Guard Capt. Patrick Brennan, commanding officer, Sector Detroit; John Jamian, former maritime administrator of the Transportation Department's Maritime Administration and former executive director of the Detroit/Wayne County Port Authority; Sheriff Dan Lane of the St. Clair County Sheriff's Department, St. Clair County, Mich.; and Army Col. Paul Disney of the U.S. Northern Command. Joint Task Force North - J3
Location: Selfridge Air National Guard Base, 29423 George Ave., Joint Dining Facility (Building 164), Selfridge, Mich.. 10 a.m.

August 2, 2006

Senate Armed Services Committee
The Future of Military Commissions
Full committee hearing on the future of military commissions in light of the Supreme Court decision in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld.
Witnesses: Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England
Location: 216 Hart Senate Office Building. 2:30 p.m.

Senate Judiciary Committee
Detainee Trials
Full committee hearing on "The Authority to Prosecute Terrorists Under The War Crime Provisions of Title 18."
Witnesses: TBA
Location: 226 Dirksen Senate Office Building. 9:30 a.m.

House Armed Services Committee
Southern Border National Security Concerns
Full committee field hearing on "National Security Concerns on the Southern Border."
Witnesses: Marine Corps Col. Ben Hancock, commanding officer, Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Ariz.; Deputy Chief Patrol Agent Jeffrey Calhoon, sector deputy chief, U.S. Customs and Border Protection; and Maj. Gen. Antonio Pineda, national commander, U.S. Civil Air Patrol
Location: Yuma Marine Corps Air Station, intersection of 32nd St. and Ave. 3E, Yuma, Ariz.. 1 p.m.

August 3, 2006

Senate Armed Services Committee
Iraq, Afghanistan and the War on Terror
Full committee hearing on Iraq, Afghanistan and the global war on terrorism.
Witnesses: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace and Army General John Abizaid, commander of the United States Central Command
Location: 216 Hart Senate Office Building. 9:30 a.m.

Evan Kohlmann on Zawahiri Tape and "Accommodation" With Hezbollah

By Andrew Cochran

Evan Kohlmann was interviewed on MSNBC by Tucker Carlson last Thursday and discussed the Zawahiri tape and the possibility of the U.S. reaching an "accommodation" with Hezbollah: "And I think we can reach some kind of accommodation with Hezbollah one way or the other. It doesn‘t have to be an issue of friendship. But at least we can find a way of Hezbollah not directly attacking us." The full transcript is below. Evan also has a propaganda video from Hezbollah on his GlobalTerrorAlert.com site, with their usual "Death to Israel and America" theme, and wrote to me "that when dealing with Hezbollah, 'endeavor for peace, but carry a big stick.'"

Interview Transcript:
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Zawahiri‘s attitude about life is that there shouldn‘t be free societies. And he believes that people ought to use terrorist tactics, the killing of innocent people, to achieve his objective. And so I‘m not surprised he feels like he needs to lend his voice to terrorist activities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: That was President Bush earlier today responding to a videotape released by al Qaeda‘s deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who warned that his group will not stand idly by as Israel bombs Lebanon. He called on his followers to rise up and attack the West, as he has many times before. Is this time any different? That‘s the question for NBC News terrorism analyst Evan Kohlmann, who joins us from New York. Evan, is this any different?

EVAN KOHLMANN, NBC NEWS TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I think some people have misinterpreted this as Zawahiri saying, Hezbollah, let‘s get together in an alliance against Israel. I don‘t think that‘s what Zawahiri is saying.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: I think Zawahiri here is saying, look, the same way that al Qaeda used an opportunity in Iraq in 2003, and as an opportunity to confront the West by inserting cells of operatives to directly confront us, they want to do the same thing with Israel right now. And the idea is to put cells in Gaza and in Lebanon, not with Hezbollah, but independently. And I think Zawahiri also is trying to encourage those within al Qaeda to move a little bit away from the Zarqawi extreme. That being murdering Shiites by—you know, by scores for no reason other than because they‘re Shiites, and trying to move back towards focusing the energy on the United States and its allies and leaving the Shiite-Sunni issue until later on. As Zawahiri says in this video, the issue right now is Palestine. Palestine. Palestine. It‘s—really, it‘s propaganda issue. It‘s a populist issue.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: It‘s pure populist dogma.

CARLSON: But, I mean, on the other hand, doesn‘t the war between Israel and Hezbollah put al Qaeda in kind of a spot? Hezbollah is the only Islamic group that can even sort of plausibly claim to have beaten Israel anywhere in Lebanon. And all of a sudden, they have all this popular support in the region. Does al Qaeda feel like it needs to prove itself by doing something dramatic to win back the affections of lunatics around the world?

KOHLMANN: It‘s not just support. It‘s more attention. I think you‘re seeing a lot of television attention being paid not just to particularly Hezbollah, but Hezbollah leaders, like Hassan Nasrallah, who are becoming voices for resistance against the Israelis. And I think that is the last thing that al Qaeda wants. Al Qaeda has units already in Lebanon. It has for many months. Back in December they launched a rocket attack against Israel. And that rocket attack caused a lot of problems. Hezbollah got very angry. Hezbollah doesn‘t have a problem with attacking Israel. But if attacks are going against Israel, it wants to be responsible for them, not al Qaeda.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: And as a result, Zarqawi himself attacked Hezbollah, saying, you‘re providing a wall between us and the Israelis. So, yes, I think Zawahiri wants a pieces action. Not as part and parcel of Hezbollah, but independently, separately as a competing influence in Lebanon.

CARLSON: So these two groups also have religious differences, Hezbollah being a Shiite group, al Qaeda being a pretty aggressive Sunni Muslim group. Is there anything the United States can do to exacerbate tensions between them so they can eat each other and then spare the world a lot of heartache?

KOHLMANN: Well, it‘s troublesome, because unfortunately, these two groups, as much as they hate each other, they also hate the West. But, that being said, I think the Shiites that are within Hezbollah tend to be a lot more pragmatic and a lot more future-sighted than those in al Qaeda.

CARLSON: Yes.

KOHLMANN: And I think we can reach some kind of accommodation with Hezbollah one way or the other. It doesn‘t have to be an issue of friendship. But at least we can find a way of Hezbollah not directly attacking us. I think Hezbollah may have learned its lesson here. I think they bit off more than they could chew. And I don‘t think they‘re looking for some kind of apocalyptic battle that Zawahiri is talking about. So I don‘t see an alliance between them.

CARLSON: Well, that‘s exactly what—that‘s exactly—look, let me put it this way. We met with Hezbollah yesterday, an American television crew. Obviously American. They didn‘t murder us. Do you think we could meet with al Qaeda? I don‘t think so. We wouldn‘t get anywhere.

KOHLMANN: No, it‘s two very—two very separate groups.

CARLSON: So, right, it‘s this completely different idea than al Qaeda. Is the United States making a mistake by not recognizing that Hezbollah actually has something to lose? They have political power in Lebanon, for instance, and maybe we should suck it up and negotiate with them. As horrifying as that sounds, maybe it‘s in our interest to do that. I don‘t know, is it?

KOHLMANN: Well, negotiating is a strong word. But at least talking with them...

CARLSON: Talk.

KOHLMANN: ... sounds like a wise idea. The same thing with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. These organizations are not our friends. In fact, by many definitions they‘re our adversaries.

CARLSON: Of course.

KOHLMANN: But, then again, they also share adversaries us with, the same way that during the Cold War we shared Russia as an adversary with the Chinese. In the 1970‘s, Richard Nixon took a very brave move and he negotiated with the Chinese, even though they, too, were our adversaries. That relationship worked very well, and potentially you could see the same thing again between the United States and between Shiites or—I mean, this is exactly what al Qaeda fears most. This is what Zarqawi used to talk about. He used to say the end comes when Iran and the United States ally against us. That‘s what they‘re afraid of.

CARLSON: That‘s right.

KOHLMANN: So, you know, maybe it is something to consider.

CARLSON: Anything to defeat al Qaeda, that would be my position. Evan Kohlmann, thanks a lot for coming on. I appreciate it.

KOHLMANN: Thank you.

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Israel Loses the Initiative in Lebanon

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations. Click map to view.

After the airstrike in the Lebanese town of Qana, which killed 57 civilians, Israel has enforced a unilateral 48 hour cessation of air strikes against targets in Lebanon. A new report indicates 28 more civilians were killed during Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah positions in villages in southern Lebanon. The fact that Hezbollah is firing from civilian centers to provoke an Israeli response is generally ignored by the media and international community, and subsequently the tide of international pubic opinion has turned against Israel.

From the beginning of this conflict the Israeli leadership lacked a coherent plan to effectively strike back at Hezbollah, and because of this they have lost the initiative. Remember that the Israeli plan to degrade Hezbollah is predicated on creating a 2 kilometer buffer zone while conducting air strikes against Hezbollah command and control centers, as well as rocket launch sites and other infrastructure.

The cessation of air strikes is a tacit admission of failure of this policy, as the propaganda results of civilian casualties far outweighs any possible military gain. Israel, while well capable of defeating Hezbollah militarily, has chosen a strategy that will isolate it politically and provide Hezbollah with its own political victory. The air strikes will eventually kill large numbers of civilians (bloodless air wars are a myth) and the Israelis, by appearing unwilling to confront Hezbollah's army on the ground, makes them appear soft. Every day Hezbollah stands up the the most powerful army in the Middle East is a victory for Hezbollah.

On Saturday, the Israeli Defense Force withdrew from the town of Bint Jubayl, with the reasoning that the IDF never intended to occupy the land. Hezbollah is championing this as a victory for their forces. The Israeli leadership is blind to the political and propaganda ramifications of leaving Bint Jubayl.

The withdrawal follows Hezbollah's launch of a Fajr-5 rocket at the town of Afula, the deepest into Israeli territory. The Fajr-5 has a range of up to 45 miles. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed "an estimated two thirds of Hizbollah's long-range missile capabilities" including "Iranian-supplied Zelzal-2 missiles" which have a range of up to 125 miles. Yet Hezbollah continues to launch rockets into Israeli territory. Israel saw the largest amount of rockets attacks on Sunday, almost 150 landed inside Israeli territory.

Despite the cessation of the air strikes (except for close air support operations) the IDF continues to conduct limited operations along the Lebanese border. Defense Minister Amir Peretz claims the ground offensive will be expanded, and his speech was "widely echoed by MKs across the spectrum." Clashes have been reported in the town of al-Taibeh (Al Tayyabah on the map.) Al Tayyabah is a few kilometers from the Litani River, and a push further by the IDF along with a blocking force on the Litani River could seal the center and western portion of the Lebanese border from Syrian resupply and trap a significant portion of Hezbollah's southern army. But the Israelis have signaled they are unwilling to go this far at this time. Ynet News also reports "the Paratroopers Division is simultaneously operating in the western region, around villages containing Hizbullah infrastructures."

Israel's unwillingness to pay the price in casualties and enter southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in force may prove to be a strategic defeat which it will pay for in the near future. As I stated on Colonel Austin Bay's blog late last week; "If Israel delays, Hezbollah’s next attack will be far more sophisticated and organized. Hezbollah has transformed from a militia to an organized political and military force in the six short years since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. With an emboldened Hezbollah backed by confident Iran and Syria, Israel’s butcher bill will only increase."

Hezbollah will also increase its power base inside of Lebanon, and directly threaten the Cedar Revolution. Lebanese opposition leader Walid Jumblat gives an inside view of the repercussions Hezbollah's success against the Israelis:

"We have to acknowledge that they have defeated the Israelis. It's not a question of gaining one more village or losing one more village. They have defeated the Israelis... But the question now is to whom Nasrallah will offer this victory. Either we will have a state able to establish its control over the country or we will have a state comparable to what is happening in Palestine... a reduced weakened state and a strong militia beside the Lebanese army that decides war and peace at any time and has its schedule decided by the Iranians and the Syrians. I don't see a state of Lebanon surviving with a militia next to an army. That's it."

Time is running out for Israel. At the beginning of this campaign, they needed to strike hard and fast, using ground forces, at Hezbollah's military assets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. They can still do so, but it will come at a far greater political cost.

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Hezbollah executed 18 "spies" in Tyre

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, the very well informed Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah reported that Hezbollah shot eighteen people last week. These people were suspected of being collaborators to Israel (sounds awfully like what's been happening in the Palestinian territories in the past years). The executed were accused of helping Israeli airforce to pinpoint where Hezbollah fighters were hiding by tracing signs with phosphorescent paint. Numerous witnesses to the execution were German citizens who were being evacuated by boat through Tyre.
Funny this did not make the news, right?

New Terrorist Videos/Translations of Communiques Available

By Evan Kohlmann

Needless to say, Al-Qaida and other terrorist groups have released quite a voluminous amount of propaganda material lately, and I'm finally getting around to adding some of the most noteworthy recent videos and communiques to my website. Already available this morning on Globalterroralert.com are communiques from the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Al-Fatihin Army in Iraq dealing with the current situation in Lebanon--along with an English-subtitled copy of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest message from last week and a supplementary video of elite Hezbollah fighters training in South Lebanon.

English translations will also soon be added for a series of recent messages issued by Al-Qaida in Iraq, Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia, and the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC).

Lebanon…Let's Stop the Tap Dance

By Dennis Lormel

The Israelis need to accept responsibility for the bombings that have killed innocent Lebanese citizens. Likewise, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran need to be accountable for causing the crisis which resulted in the deaths of so many innocent people.

At what point will responsible countries around the world have the backbone to stand up to the fact that Hezbollah would not be what they are without the support of Syria and Iran? Hezbollah has been adept at being cowardly in respect to using Lebanese citizens and the UN to front and/or mask their terrorist war. In the aftermath of the Israeli bombing of a building where children and women were killed, the Israelis have been roundly criticized, condemned and ostracized. How about Hezbollah? How about Syria? How about Iran? Why aren’t they being held equally accountable?

Why is it that the international community universally and quietly recognizes that Syria and Iran front Hezbollah but bury their collective heads in the sand when it comes to holding those countries accountable? It’s time to stop the tap dance. Before everyone jumps to vilify the Israelis for their bombings or response to Hezbollah’s attacks, why not get to the core of the problem…Syria… Iran. Why doesn’t the international community have the fortitude to openly take Syria and Iran to task? Interestingly, why doesn’t either Syria or Iran have the backbone to admit that they facilitate Hezbollah? Why are they such cowards? To stop the problems go to the root. Go to Syria. Go to Iran. Decapitate Hezbollah, in part that would mean to openly chastise Syria and Iran. Unfortunately, the world diplomatic community is too busy avoiding the issue rather than addressing the issue and doing the right thing. In all likelihood, the UN and world community lack the capacity to honestly take this issue on. A true universal approach would be refreshing. That would be a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the UN lacks the strength and/or fortitude to address the problem honestly. Likewise, the international diplomatic services are equally adept at dancing around the issues. It would be nice if at least one country had the balls to stand up and stop Hezbollah, Syria and/or Iran. Backbone takes guts! The international community is adept at lacking guts.

If we want to achieve a true resolution, let’s take on Syria and Iran and not just focus on the Israelis. The problem is the international community realizes this but in accordance with true diplomatic bulls..t, it’s easier to criticize the Israelis than to hold the true villains accountable or to take them to task for their heinous and cowardly behavior.

Is Viktor B. Flying for Somali Islamists?

By Douglas Farah

Twice in one week the airport at Mogadishu, Somalia, was the scene of something almost unseen in the past decade-the landing of two large Soviet-era IL-76 cargo planes, among the biggest in the world, capable of carryng more than 50 tons in its hold. The airport is under the control of the Islamis militias that are intent on turning Somalia into an Islamic nation governed by a radical vision of what sharia law implies. Few flights have landed there at all in the past decade.

News reports from the scene said the aircraft unloaded large amounts of boxes believed to be weapons, into the waiting trucks of the Islamist militias. Little more could be garnered because the militiamen drove off onlookers and journalists.

On the first flight, the plane was painted with the "UN" markings denoting Kazakstan registration, with no other identifiers. The second flight may have been the same aircraft, and if not, was a similar Il-76, and was met by at least six trucks to facilitate the offloading of the cargo.

The BBC reported that "credible sources said that flight originated in Eritrea carrying anti-aircraft guns, uniforms, AK47s and several senior Eritrean officers." AFP managed to squeeze off one picture showing trucks on the ground unloading the aircraft. My entire blog is here.

France and Hezbollah on a collision course? UPDATED 7/31

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for the Weekly Standard on French-Hezbollah relations in light of the surely increasing French role in diplomatic negotiations.
Here's an excerpt:

FRANCE HAS A LONG HISTORY in Lebanon, a country it administered under a League of Nations mandate from 1920 to 1943 and whose elite is bilingual in French and Arabic. France also has a history with Hezbollah, going back to the group's beginnings more than twenty years ago. In order to appreciate why French president Jacques Chirac is so far hanging tough for the disarming of Hezbollah in the present crisis, it is useful to cast a backward glance. For those 241 U.S. servicemen blown up in their barracks by Hezbollah on October 23, 1983, were not the only Western soldiers to die in Beirut at the hands of the Islamists that day.

A good place to begin the story is 1978, when France contributed troops to UNIFIL, a United Nations force created to monitor the Lebanese-Israeli border. After a long series of Palestinian cross-border raids killing Israelis, the Israeli army had crossed into Lebanon and pushed the Palestine Liberation Organization north of the Litani River. UNIFIL's job was to police the peace. The peace didn't last. In 1982, after another Israeli incursion, some 800 French troops joined an equal number of U.S. Marines and 400 Italian troops to supervise the evacuation of the PLO from Lebanon and serve, once again, as peacekeepers. The same year, Hezbollah was born.

This new Shiite force created and funded by Iran lost no time in targeting the French in Lebanon. First came a rocket attack on soldiers in April 1983.

Entire Zawahiri Video Now Available

By Andrew Cochran

The entire video from Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri is now available at various internet sites; the version posted on Thursday was an excerpt released by Al Jazeera. Thanks to Laura Mansfield for sharing this link to the full video with us.

Nasrallah's other war: IRAQ

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for the Asia Times on Hezbollah's active involvement in Iraq. See how everything is interconnected : Hezbollah's slogan is anyway: Death to America! Nasarallah said it himself in 2004.
Here's an excerpt of my article:

In the last few weeks, Hassan Nasrallah (which name literally means in Arabic God’s victory), the Secretary General of the Lebanese Shia terror group Hezbollah (The party of God), has almost become a household name. Even though Nasrallah has become “famous” for starting this new Hezbollah-Israel war and declared Israel as its mortal enemy, one should not forget that the Big Satan still remains the USA. And that’s why out of all places Iraq is where Nasrallah’s influence can also be felt.

Nasrallah’s biography can explain how he got close to prominent Lebanese/Iranian/Iraqi Shia clerics and in particular the Sadr family. In fact in 1975 while he was only 15, Nasrallah joined the ranks of the Lebanese Shia movement Amal- that Hezbollah broke from after its creation in 1982- led by Musa Al Sadr. Then from 1976 to 1978, he was sent to study in Najaf, Iraq at the famed Shia seminary, the Hawze. There he met most his mentors starting with Iranian Ayatollah Khomeiny and also his tutor Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (Muqtada Al Sadr’s father). He also was in close contact with Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani and finally he was groomed by future Hezbollah leader Abbas Al Musawi whom he succeeded after Musawi was killed by the Israelis in 1992. These two years in Najaf definetely left a huge imprint on Nasrallah’s psyche.

Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

Indonesia has been relatively quiet on the counter-terrorism front in recent weeks. There are a few items for updating:

* This past week, the Indonesian attorney general took the unusual step of announcing the date of the planned execution (22 August) for three of the 2002 Bali bombers (Amrozi, his older brother Muckhlas, and Imam Samudra). Unlike in the U.S., the Indonesian authorities usually never announce the date or location of an execution ahead of time. Also unlike the U.S., four of the five members of Indonesian firing squads have blanks--only one has a real bullet. Earlier, the three convicted Bali terrorists said they would not appeal their sentence. However, family members for Amrozi may now go ahead with an appeal, which could conceivably delay their visit to the firing squad for weeks or months.

* On 23 July, an Indonesian court sentenced two men to 3.5 years in prison for hiding top Jemaah Islamiyah fugitive Noordin Top. The two had allowed Top to stay in their Pekalongan, Central Java, house for several weeks in September 2004, and did not notify the authorities despite knowing his identity.

* On 17 July, police in Lombok arrested a man dressed in black robes who planned to take a flight to Central Java. A check of his identity card revealed that he lived at a boarding house in Jogjakarta that had recently been raided by the police. The authorities have been concerned in recent months that Jemaah Islamiyah members are seeking sanctuary in and around Lombok; earlier this year, a Singaporean member of Jemaah Islamiyah was captured on the nearby island of Sumbawa.

War Brewing Between Ethiopia and Somalia's Islamic Courts Union?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Since capturing Mogadishu last month, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Somalia has moved in an increasingly radical direction. This is reflected both in their leadership choices and also their implementation of Taliban-like Islamic law. Beyond that, the ICU is aggressively expanding its power. It recently surrounded the southern Somali city of Baidoa, where the largely powerless interim Somali government is holed up.

On Monday, Time's website reported Ethiopia's concerns over the ICU's stance toward Baidoa:

The Islamic Courts Union says it will not attack the interim government, which is mostly secular in outlook, but the government’s closest ally, Ethiopia, is worried enough to be massing troops to take on the Islamic forces itself. The Islamists and Somali journalists say that Ethiopia has already sent troops over the border, a claim Ethiopia denies. But there is no doubting Ethiopia's intentions. “We will use all means at our disposal to crush the Islamist group if they attempt to attack Baidoa,” Ethiopian Information Minister Berhan Hailu told Reuters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.

Just as Ethiopia has threatened to use military force against the ICU, the ICU has vowed to attack the Ethiopian soldiers that it claims have crossed the border into Somalia. (Although Ethiopia denies this, eyewitness accounts makes it appear that the ICU is correct that there are Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia.)

There is no fighting at present between the ICU and Ethiopian forces. Part of the reason for this may be that a number of politicians within Somalia's interim government are in the process of defecting to the ICU and bringing their militias with them. This is similar to the process that the Taliban used to gain power in Afghanistan, by getting individual warlords and their militias to align themselves with the radical Islamic movement. The ICU may want to gain as many allies as possible before taking on the more powerful Ethiopian military. Then the ICU may launch an attack on the Ethiopians, just as they promised. Both the Ethiopians and the ICU may prefer it if the ICU strikes the first blow.

There are a variety of views on how fighting between the ICU and Ethiopians may go. Ethiopia clearly has the upper hand because their ground forces have better training and equipment, and they have the extra advantage of some air power. Moreover, while every major news outlet has bureaus in Jerusalem and Amman, there aren't any Mogadishu bureaus. The lack of press coverage may make the Ethiopian army feel less constrained in carrying out its military operations than Israel is in Lebanon. But one consideration on the other side is that it's unclear to what degree there is cross-pollination between the ICU and al-Qaeda's factions in Iraq. If the ICU has had much of this exposure, that increases the chance that it could employ some of the insurgent tactics used by al-Qaeda in Iraq, such as improvised explosive devices. That could make things more difficult for the Ethiopian military than they anticipate.

Counterterrorism consultant Dan Darling contributed to the information in this post.

A Guest Worker Amnesty Program is Disastrous for National Security

By Michael Cutler

I testified today before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims on the topic, "Whether Attempted Implementation of the Senate Immigration Bill Will Result in an Administrative and National Security Nightmare." here is a segment of my testimony, and the full text is below:

Nearly every week we read news accounts of suspected terrorists being arrested in countries around the world as well as within the borders of our own country. We see compelling coverage of bombings of trains in Spain, England and India, most recently. One of this country’s closest allies, Israel, has been forced to take military action to defend itself against terrorism in the Middle East. Yet inexplicably, there are senators and others who insist on pushing forward to implement a guest worker amnesty program that would be utterly disastrous for national security... if this program were enacted, these millions of illegal aliens would be able to go to an immigration office, assume any identity they found convenient and receive official identity documents from our government. It would be a simple matter for a terrorist or criminal, to walk into such an office, provide a false name to the over-worked bureaucrat at USCIS who will probably be given only a minute or two at most to interview each applicant. The terrorist would then receive a guest-worker identity document in that new identity that would permit him to circumvent the various terrorist watch lists or so called, “No fly” lists and thereby embed himself in our country and gain access to what are supposed to be secure venues...

Chairman Hostettler, Ranking Member Jackson Lee, members of the subcommittee, ladies and gentlemen, it is an honor to come before this subcommittee hearing to offer testimony on an issue is that one of the most challenging and important issues our nation faces today. I commend Chairman Hostettler and members of this subcommittee for demonstrating true leadership at a time when our nation is in need of true leadership.

The principle by which most responsible and sensible people live their lives can be summed up by the phrase, “Safety first.” We instill this principle in our children as soon as they are old enough to understand the words. Yet, this fundamental and commonsense approach is clearly lacking among all too many of the senators of our nation. They voted for a bill that utterly ignores the findings and recommendations of the 911 Commission at a time when our nation is threatened by acts of terrorism. Nearly every week we read news accounts of suspected terrorists being arrested in countries around the world as well as within the borders of our own country. We see compelling coverage of bombings of trains in Spain, England and India, most recently. One of this country’s closest allies, Israel, has been forced to take military action to defend itself against terrorism in the Middle East. Yet inexplicably, there are senators and others who insist on pushing forward to implement a guest worker amnesty program that would be utterly disastrous for national security.

USCIS, United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency that would be responsible for administering the proposed guest worker amnesty program, is unable to cope with all of its responsibilities as we speak. The GAO issued a report in March of this year, makes it clear that USCIS is unable to carry out its vital missions today, without the added burden that the guest worker amnesty program would undeniably bring to bear against that overworked, under funded and in general, inept agency. The report is entitled, “Immigration Benefits: Additional Controls and a Sanctions Strategy Could Enhance DHS’s Ability to Control Benefit Fraud” and can be found at the following link:

http://judiciary.house.gov/media/pdfs/gaoimmbenefits31006.pdf

I would recommend that a copy of this report be reviewed by the members of not only this subcommittee, but by all members of our government who favor a guest worker amnesty program.

My fear is that because we are dealing with millions of illegal aliens who, in the parlance of the open borders advocates, are undocumented, have no verifiable means of proving their true identities. This means that if this program were enacted, these millions of illegal aliens would be able to go to an immigration office, assume any identity they found convenient and receive official identity documents from our government. It would be a simple matter for a terrorist or criminal, to walk into such an office, provide a false name to the over-worked bureaucrat at USCIS who will probably be given only a minute or two at most to interview each applicant. The terrorist would then receive a guest-worker identity document in that new identity that would permit him to circumvent the various terrorist watch lists or so called, “No fly” lists and thereby embed himself in our country and gain access to what are supposed to be secure venues. Undoubtedly, these identity documents will become the most valued breeder document enabling the bearer to receive driver’s licenses, credit cards, Social Security numbers and even library cards in a false name, completing the process of creating new false identities at grave risk to national security, at a time that the citizens of our country have witnessed an erosion of many of the freedoms we have come to take for granted.

I have heard the President often state that if our nation allowed aliens who simply wanted to work, to do so, that law enforcement could then focus on the terrorists. I have to respectfully disagree with this optimistic but extremely naïve assessment. Awhile back, Robert S. Mueller, the Director of the FBI testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee about his concerns about so-called “sleeper” agents. As you know, a sleeper agent is a terrorist, spy or enemy combatant, who one way or the other succeeds in gaining entry into our country awaiting instructions to carry out a terrorist attack or other hostile act against our country. While awaiting his instructions, such individuals do whatever they have to do in order to not call attention to themselves. Many, as we have seen, get a low-profile job such as driving an ice cream truck or a taxi cab, work at a used car lot or attend school. Often the job they take provides them with the mobility to move freely among us as they conduct clandestine meetings, surveillance or other preparatory functions for the day they are called into action. A few days before a terrorist carries out an attack he is, in fact, likely to hide in plain sight by going to his job.

If our government makes it that much easier for a terrorist to legally get a job under an assumed identity, then Al Qaeda should give the people in our government who make this possible, the “MVP Award.” When we see commercials on television or ads in the newspapers for various goods or services, the ad usually concludes with a disclaimer by the provider of that product or service that details the potential negative impact that the product may have on the consumer. With all of the high-pressure sales pitches we have been bombarded with by members of the United States Senate in attempting to sell their bill, S. 2611, they have neglected to provide a disclaimer, so I will do it for them.

If we provide illegal aliens with guest worker amnesty that differentiates how we treat aliens based on how long they have been here, it will be virtually impossible to make certain that this, along with all of the other provisions, will have integrity, just as it will be impossible to make certain that many more illegal aliens don’t run our borders, stow away on ships or gain entry through ports of entry, claiming that they have been here for the 5 years that would virtually provide them with the “keys to the kingdom.” There would be no way to force these millions of illegal aliens to leave our country because we cannot enforce their departure today. The guest worker amnesty program will undoubtedly entice ever increasing numbers of illegal aliens to head for our country because this program will convince people throughout the world that in the United States, not only will you be permitted to break the law and get away with it, we are willing to reward you for breaking the law by even providing you with Social Security benefits if you commit identity theft and work, or claim to have worked, under someone else’s Social Security number, even as law enforcement agencies across our nation are increasingly turning to asset forfeiture strategies to combat a wide variety of crimes on the city, state and federal level. Moreover, there is no door that can be shut, so there is no way to keep millions of more illegal aliens from gaining access to our country. The confidentiality provisions would also hobble efforts by law enforcement officials to make certain that criminal and terrorist aliens have their applications properly scrutinized. The avalanche of applications will further erode any effort to restore integrity to the benefits system meaning that fraud will become even more attractive to criminal and terrorist aliens, further encouraging more of them to seek to enter the United States and making it easier for them to game the system to enable them to embed themselves within our country and hide in plain sight. As it is, each year the director of USCIS and his subordinates promise to reduce the backlog of pending applications for a wide variety of immigration benefits including the granting of resident alien status and the conferring of United States citizenship upon aliens. It is common knowledge that there is an inverse proportion between quantity and quality. The more work you try to do in a limited period of time, the more that the quality of the work you are doing suffers. By having USCIS make the reduction of the backlog of pending applications the priority, more fraud escapes detection. Consequently more aliens get away with committing fraud, emboldening still more aliens to file more fraudulent applications for benefits, further eroding any efforts at quality control and fraud detection. This creates an ever-increasing backlog and an ever-increasing spiral of fraud. In order to break this dangerous cycle, we need to establish a clear priority of combating fraud where those who perpetrate fraud can expect that they may well be discovered and prosecuted. Additionally, a meaningful effort needs to be made to locate, arrest and deport alien beneficiaries of fraudulent applications.

Because of the current pressure to move the applications, much of the fraud escapes detection and only a relatively infinitesimal number of aliens are ever prosecuted or deported because they were involved in immigration benefit fraud. A guest worker amnesty program that has the potential of dumping millions of more applications into the hopper at USCIS would be absolutely disastrous for any effort at combating immigration benefit fraud and restoring even a modicum of integrity to the immigration system and would fly in the face of recommendations of the 911 Commission.

As all of this is going on, our valiant soldiers are fighting in far off lands to help protect our nation against terrorists while some of our politicians at home are seemingly unwilling to secure our nation against the scourge of terrorism in the name of free trade and a desire to keep our nation’s borders wide open. They use deceptive language to obfuscate the issue and, quite frankly so has the President of the United States. I have often heard the President say that he wanted to legalize immigrants. I am, as you know, a former INS special agent. This combination of words, “legalizing immigrants,” has confounded me. Language is important and so I think it is important to make this point. To offer to make immigrants legal is about as meaningful as offering to make water wet. Water is wet and immigrants, by legal definition, are already legal. In fact, an immigrant is defined as an alien who has been lawfully admitted for permanent residence. An immigrant has a so-called ‘green card’ and is able to travel freely around our country and across our nation’s borders. An Immigrant has the right to work at any job he is qualified to do. An immigrant has the right to petition the government to have his spouse join him in the United States as an immigrant and may also do this for his (her) minor children. Indeed, an immigrant is on the path to United States citizenship. How much more legal would the President want to make an immigrant?

I believe that just as the members of the Senate who voted for S. 2611 and other pro illegal alien advocates are not likely to provide a disclaimer for their remedy to the immigration crisis confronting our nation today, this improper and misleading use of the term immigrant falls under the heading of “deceptive business practices.” By eliminating the distinction between illegal aliens and immigrants, it becomes a simple matter to keep hammering away at the concept that America is the land of immigrants and that immigrants have made immeasurable contributions to our nation over the years. I am a strong advocate for the recognition of the contributions of immigrants to our nation, indeed, I am the son of an immigrant; however, there is a world of difference between an immigrant and an illegal alien.

There is scant difference between the bill the Senate recently passed and the disastrous Amnesty of 1986, notwithstanding the protestations of the members of the Senate who would take issue with my position. But, if they do not want to learn the lesson of relatively recent history where the Amnesty of 1986 is concerned, then I would recommend that they study much more distant history and study the strategy behind the “Trojan Horse.” Only a fool would permit strangers into his home without knowing their true identity or purpose for seeking to enter. Yet, this is precisely what S. 2611 facilitates. In these perilous times, this is not acceptable and must not be allowed.

In support of my concerns about the failings of USCIS I respectfully request that a copy of the GAO report I cited previously be attached to this testimony along with a press release prepared by USCIS dated June 29, 2006, entitled, “A Day in the Life of USCIS” that details the myriad tasks that are performed on a daily basis now, before they might have to deal with the onslaught of millions of amnesty applications that the Senate bill would cause. I have attached a copy of that press release to my prepared testimony and believe it provides ample evidence of just how USCIS is over-extended, even without the guest worker amnesty program it would be mandated to administer under the provisions of S. 2611. It may be found at the following website:

http://judiciary.house.gov/media/pdfs/gaoimmbenefits31006.pdf

Simply stated, a guest worker amnesty program would not only attract even more illegal aliens into our country enabling terrorists and criminals to more easily blend into our country, it would also provide unknown aliens with official identity documents in assumed identities that would enable the terrorists and criminals with an easy means of creating new identities they could use to travel freely across our borders, around our nation and gain access to secure venues and embed themselves in our country. This would, I fear, create a grave risk to our nation’s security.

I look forward to your questions.

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Intelligence Lacks at Crucial Time

By Douglas Farah

Despite the high priority supposedly allotted intelligence reform, there is bipartisan agreement that things are not going well on that front. This is especially critical as the United States faces an array of challenges, perhaps unprecedented, where intelligence is crucial.

According to this CQ Online report, a Congressional report from the House Intelligence Oversight subcommittee, to be released today finds the DNI "has failed to revamp its approach to information analysis, neglecting large swaths of potentially useful data. The report also found that the new Office of the Director of National Intelligence has done a poor job of prioritizing key tasks."

Crisis are raging or brewing from Somalia to Beirut, the Tri-Border Area to Southeast Asia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Good intelligence, paired with good analysis, have seldom been more vital to our survival and well being. But we are quite far from the ideal of a fully functional intelligence community.

Much of what we need to know is occuring in soft states or grey areas, where governments, which the intelligence community knows and understands, simply do not exist. The community has taken only hesitant steps to meet these changing challenges and priorities.

Among the other problems are the slowness in getting security clearances, the lack of standardized procedures for getting those, and the lack of human intelligence. There is also criticism of the lack of information sharing across agency lines and within agencies.

It is no secret that information sharing among intelligence agencies has sharply deteriorated in recent months. My full blog is here

Zawahiri's New Message: A Landmark Call for Unity or A Tempest in a Teapot?

By Evan Kohlmann

Many observers of the recent violence in Lebanon wondered if and when Sunni Muslims -- particularly Al-Qaida -- might respond sympathetically to their Shiite brethren among Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Some have quickly jumped at the news of a new video from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri discussing the conflict in Lebanon as incontrovertible evidence of a "seismic shift" within the Muslim world towards a united Shiite-Sunni front against Israel and the West.

However, once again, it would behoove us all to listen to the language and words coming from Al-Qaida supporters and sympathizers, rather than trying to interpret Zawahiri's speech from a outside Western perspective. The truth is, within the community that supports Al-Qaida, there is no precise consensus yet on the meaning of Zawahiri's speech. However, the one comment that seems to resonate most frequently among extremist Sunnis is that, in no way, does this video take away from the dire, existential conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. At a maximum, this is being termed a public relations move by Al-Qaida intended to encourage its operatives to temporarily focus their anger on America and its allies, and waiting until later to deliver the same violent fate to the Shiites. At a minimum, others are suggesting that Zawahiri is merely encouraging Sunni Muslims to travel to Lebanon in order to fight Israel--separately from the Shiites--just as they did in Iraq beginning in 2003. In other words, Zawahiri is encouraging the development of a fully-functioning independent Al-Qaida unit in Lebanon, not its merging with Hezbollah.

This discussion will no doubt continue to roil in the coming days -- and observers would be wise to carefully pay attention to the actual words of Al-Qaida's leaders and supporters rather than relying on diluted media interpretations or alternatively our own estranged theoretical perspectives.

Controversy Over New Zawahiri Tape and Al Qaeda's Intentions (updated with translation)

By Andrew Cochran

Last night, I posted on the newest video by Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Bill Roggio and I have updated it frequently since then. I wanted to post this separate note to report that Evan Kohlmann and other experts are noticing and generating lots of discussion about the precise translation and intent of the tape. Is Zawahiri empathizing in his tape with just the Sunni Lebanese, or also with Hezbollah, or is he even signalling the intent or desire to collaborate with Hezbollah (note some of the quotes in my post below)? Or is he just horning in on the action to raise Al Qaeda's profile and generate recruits? For many experts, the Sunni-Shia split is too great to be overcome, even by terrorists with a common desire to annihilate Israel. On the other hand, on July 16 Doug Farah posted "The Potential for a Hezbollah-al Qaeda Alliance of Convenience," with this note: "However, al Qaeda's own writings, and testimony of senior al Qaeda operatives in U.S. custody (Jamal al Fadl) recounted the extensive contacts bewtween the two organizations while bin Laden was in Sudan, including joint military and explosives training." He also pointed towards Imad Mugniya's work with both al Qaeda and Hezbollah. Magnus Ranstorp posted on July 14 and Bill Roggio posted on July 12 about Mugniya's history with Hezbollah and possible role in the current conflict. Precision in the tape translation and expert knowledge of the history of the groups and individuals are critical to the analysis of the tape and a forecast of the potential outcomes. UPDATE: Here is a translation of the tape by the Site Institute (Acrobat file).

Hezbollah's Army Revisited

By Bill Roggio

The skill and training of Hezbollah's Army in southern Lebanon becomes clearer after details emerge about Wednesday's fighting in Bint Jubayl, where the Israeli Defense Force's elite Golani Brigade and Hezbollah fighters have been slugging it out since last week. The most recent combat in Bint Jubayl claimed the lives of 9 Israeli soldiers and wounded 27. The Jerusalem Post provides further information about the fighting in the town the IDF recently claimed was under their control.

Dozens of Hizbullah gunmen armed with antitank missiles and machine guns and geared up in night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests set a trap for a force of Golani infantrymen... [Lieutenant Colonel Yaniv] Asor and his men moved quickly through approximately 15 one-story homes. But as the troops moved through the narrow alleyways, a strong Hizbullah force sent a wave of gunfire and missiles at the force, killing and wounding several soldiers in the first moments of the fight. As Asor and his men fought to regain control of the situation, other Hizbullah cells outflanked them and opened fire on the force as well as other IDF positions in the town... The battle lasted for several hours during which Asor and his men sustained heavy casualties and killed at least 40 Hizbullah guerrillas, some in gunbattles at point-blank range... Wednesday evening, after the IDF had once again declared it had secured the town, a Paratrooper force nearby was hit by a Sagger antitank missile... [1 IDF paratrooper was killed and three wounded]

There is one problem with the description: the statement "other Hizbullah cells outflanked them" should read "other Hizbullah squads outflanked them." Terrorist cells are by definition clandestine in nature. This ambush was the work of well trained and well armed infantry, conducting attacks at the squad and platoon level.

We began discussing Hezbollah's military capabilities on July 21, after it became clear during the ambush of the Golani Brigade forced the unit to retreat near Maroun al-Ras that Hezbollah was not your average militia. On that date we noted "Hezbollah also possesses mortars, RPGs, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, anti-tank missiles and possibly surface to air missiles.... Hezbollah is using infantry tactics and fighting at the squad and platoon level." The IDF's slow advance (over two days) into Bint Jubayl and the ambush on a tank unit were clear indications of Hezbollah's abilities to stand up to the IDF as well as the IDF's cautious nature on the battlefield. Yesterday we confirmed Hezbollah is fighting at the company level, has specialized units (mortars, antitank, logistics, etc.) in its combat units and is using sophisticated communications equipment, body armor and other gear.

This is not to say the IDF cannot defeat Hezbollah's army on the battlefield; the IDF can, and has done so at Maroun al-Ras, Bint Jubayl and elsewhere. But this comes at a cost in casualties, a cost the Israeli government seems unwilling to pay.

Hezbollah's actions on the battlefields of southern Lebanon should give the Israelis, the West and neighboring Arab governments reason to worry. In just two weeks, Hezbollah has been fighting the Israeli military to an effective standstill on the ground (remember that time is not on Israel's side due to pressure to accept a cease fire). Not only is Hezbollah fighting at the platoon and company level, but fighting effectively during the initial engagements. al-Qaeda in Iraq (3 years of fighting) and the Taliban in Afghanistan (almost 5 years of fighting) have yet to reach such a level of effectiveness on the battlefield.

Iran has trained a proxy army that now sits on the border with Israeli, an army that cannot be dealt with from the air. If this problem is kicked down the road, Hezbollah will be that much more dangerous. And everything we think we know about Iran's conventional military capabilities needs to be rethought.

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U.S. and Turkey to Develop Joint Strategy Against PKK

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On July 19, I noted that Turkey had been making noise about launching an incursion into Iraq to fight against the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). Turkey's concern over the PKK's presence in Iraq was so great that the Turkish government warned the U.S. and Iraqi ambassadors that Turkey would launch a unilateral military operation if sufficient steps weren't taken.

On Tuesday, the Turkish daily Zaman reported that U.S. ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson had announced a joint strategy against the PKK:

The United States has expressed its support to Turkey over a joint operation against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). US Ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson informed that the US is working to develop more functional methods for dealing with the PKK. Wilson referred to the common vision document that was signed between Turkey and the US a month ago, and stressed that the document foresees cooperation over the PKK, economic and commercial issues as well as many others. . . . Sources reported that the US is ready to take concrete military steps against the PKK.

Reader Timothy Thompson reports that he has heard from well-placed Turkish sources that the State Department's position on the PKK shifted markedly two to three days ago, ultimately resulting in the present announcement. These sources believe that the announced cooperation forestalls Turkish plans of unilateral intervention. Turkey is now committed to only crossing the Iraq border with express U.S. approval and coordination.

Had Turkey intervened in Iraq unilaterally, it would have risked clashes with American-backed Kurdish units unaffiliated with the PKK and also would have created the possibility that a Turkish unit could accidentally engage Americans in a firefight. The fact that at least one potential flash point in the Middle East seems to have been resolved is unambiguously good news.

New Tape by Ayman al-Zawahiri Released (updated 7/27 with translation)

By Andrew Cochran

Banner announcing the new Zawahiri tape. Banner compliments of Rita Katz and Laura Mansfield.

Rita Katz of the Site Institute and Laura Mansfield informed us Wednesday night that a new tape from Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri on the situation in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would be released soon, as announced by AQ's As Sahab Productions. Rita Katz reported that the tape is titled, "The Zionist-Crusader Enemy in Gaza and Lebanon." Last week, a site not affiliated with Al Qaeda created a brief flurry of interest by announcing an upcoming OBL tape, but that proved to be a phony announcement, and neither Rita Katz, Laura Mansfield, nor Evan Kohlmann trusted that announcement. See my post on that episode, along with a link to a story on a fatwa against Hezbollah by a leading Saudi Wahabi cleric and a translation of that fatwa by Evan.

UPDATE 7/27: The tape is out - Zawahiri refers to "our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon" (a corrected reference to the quote) and says, "The war with Israel does not depend on cease-fires... It is a Jihad for God's sake and will last until (our) religion prevails...We will attack everywhere... The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli (weapons), but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price." The AP story notes that "a picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with pictures of two other militants." Asharq Al-Awsat quotes his call to fellow Muslims, "Oh Muslims everywhere, I call on you to fight and become martyrs in the war against the Zionists and the Crusaders." Al Jazeera cites this quote, "The war with Israel does not depend on ceasefires... It is a jihad for God's sake and will last until religion prevails... from Spain to Iraq. We will attack everywhere." A message of support by Al Qaeda leadership for the Shiite Hezbollah is an unexpected and troubling development. More on the translation later.

Laura Mansfield has a copy of the video (File size is approximately 19M.) Rita Katz has a full translation of the tape (Acrobat file). Here is a Reuters chronology of major Al Qaeda statements issued thus far in 2006.

Evan Kohlmann comments via email: Zawahiri never said that Hezbollah were his "brothers"... he only said that Al-Qaida has "brothers" in Gaza and Lebanon. Be very careful with this, there is a lot of turmoil and debate in the jihadi community over the exact meaning of this tape. Some are saying that it means Zawahiri is pushing for a pragmatic temporary alliance with the Shiites, at least while they are busy dealing with the Jews. Others are saying that Zawahiri made a purely political speech that simply shows Al-Qaida trying to manipulate the situation to score propaganda points. Among those who share the latter view, there is great emphasis on Zawahiri's discussion of the use of the term "downtrodden."

The SITE Institute also reports on a Taliban message of support for Hezbollah, urging Muslims to unite against “Zionist and the American oppressions,” or “then the Muslim nations will deeply sink into the hole of slavery.”

The Battle of Bint Jubayl and Hezbollah's Army

By Bill Roggio

As the smoke clears from the fighting in the Lebanese border town of Bint Jubayl, Hezbollah's military capabilities become clearer. Today, 8 Israeli soldiers from the Golani Brigade's 51st Battalion were killed and 22 wounded during a "well-planned Hezbollah ambush on the outskirts" outside of Bint Jubayl. This follows the 4 killed and 18 wounded during Sunday's engagement in the town.

Hezbollah was reported to have suffered 150 killed as of this morning, and another 40 killed in today's action after fighting "gun battles at point-blank range." An unnamed American military officer reports several Hezbollah operatives, whose primary purpose is logistical support, have been captured and are currently being interrogated by Israeli intelligence.

The Hezbollah bunker in Bint Jubayl was taken nearly intact. Hezbollah attempted to destroy the equipment in the bunker, but was not successful in destroying it all, according to an intelligence source. Abu Jaafar, the Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, may have killed himself rather than being captured. The Israeli troops seized Hezbollah computers, documents and monitoring devices used to observe the Israeli border, in addition to the "electronic surveillance equipment, weapons and communication devices made in Iran" which was reported yesterday. The bunker served as the equivalent of a Hezbollah headquarters and command and control center for the southern border.

The Israelis targeted the town of Bint Jubayl with the hope of obtaining further intelligence on Hezbollah's organization and capabilites, as well as the location of their two captured soldiers. The documents and computer seized by the IDF may outline Hezbollah's command and organizational structure in southern Lebanon, although this is unknown at this time. Israeli intelligence is currently analyzing the data.

The Israelis have confirmed that Hezbollah is fighting like a professional military. Their units are fighting at the company level at the least (Unit size of approximately 100 men), and perhaps in larger formations. Intelligence also confirms there is specialization within the Hezbollah units, including trained infantry, mortar teams, missile squads, and logistical personal. Iran has trained and organized Hezbollah's army into something far more deadly than a militia force. Hezbollah's core 'active' army is estimated at 3,000 - 5,000, with as many as 50,000 part time militia and support personnel that can be called upon to fight (20,000 is the average estimate).

Intelligence sources also have confirmed that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Force have indeed been killed during the fighting in southern Lebanon.