Evan Kohlmann on Zawahiri Tape and "Accommodation" With Hezbollah

By Andrew Cochran

Evan Kohlmann was interviewed on MSNBC by Tucker Carlson last Thursday and discussed the Zawahiri tape and the possibility of the U.S. reaching an "accommodation" with Hezbollah: "And I think we can reach some kind of accommodation with Hezbollah one way or the other. It doesn‘t have to be an issue of friendship. But at least we can find a way of Hezbollah not directly attacking us." The full transcript is below. Evan also has a propaganda video from Hezbollah on his GlobalTerrorAlert.com site, with their usual "Death to Israel and America" theme, and wrote to me "that when dealing with Hezbollah, 'endeavor for peace, but carry a big stick.'"

Interview Transcript:
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Zawahiri‘s attitude about life is that there shouldn‘t be free societies. And he believes that people ought to use terrorist tactics, the killing of innocent people, to achieve his objective. And so I‘m not surprised he feels like he needs to lend his voice to terrorist activities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: That was President Bush earlier today responding to a videotape released by al Qaeda‘s deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who warned that his group will not stand idly by as Israel bombs Lebanon. He called on his followers to rise up and attack the West, as he has many times before. Is this time any different? That‘s the question for NBC News terrorism analyst Evan Kohlmann, who joins us from New York. Evan, is this any different?

EVAN KOHLMANN, NBC NEWS TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I think some people have misinterpreted this as Zawahiri saying, Hezbollah, let‘s get together in an alliance against Israel. I don‘t think that‘s what Zawahiri is saying.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: I think Zawahiri here is saying, look, the same way that al Qaeda used an opportunity in Iraq in 2003, and as an opportunity to confront the West by inserting cells of operatives to directly confront us, they want to do the same thing with Israel right now. And the idea is to put cells in Gaza and in Lebanon, not with Hezbollah, but independently. And I think Zawahiri also is trying to encourage those within al Qaeda to move a little bit away from the Zarqawi extreme. That being murdering Shiites by—you know, by scores for no reason other than because they‘re Shiites, and trying to move back towards focusing the energy on the United States and its allies and leaving the Shiite-Sunni issue until later on. As Zawahiri says in this video, the issue right now is Palestine. Palestine. Palestine. It‘s—really, it‘s propaganda issue. It‘s a populist issue.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: It‘s pure populist dogma.

CARLSON: But, I mean, on the other hand, doesn‘t the war between Israel and Hezbollah put al Qaeda in kind of a spot? Hezbollah is the only Islamic group that can even sort of plausibly claim to have beaten Israel anywhere in Lebanon. And all of a sudden, they have all this popular support in the region. Does al Qaeda feel like it needs to prove itself by doing something dramatic to win back the affections of lunatics around the world?

KOHLMANN: It‘s not just support. It‘s more attention. I think you‘re seeing a lot of television attention being paid not just to particularly Hezbollah, but Hezbollah leaders, like Hassan Nasrallah, who are becoming voices for resistance against the Israelis. And I think that is the last thing that al Qaeda wants. Al Qaeda has units already in Lebanon. It has for many months. Back in December they launched a rocket attack against Israel. And that rocket attack caused a lot of problems. Hezbollah got very angry. Hezbollah doesn‘t have a problem with attacking Israel. But if attacks are going against Israel, it wants to be responsible for them, not al Qaeda.

CARLSON: Right.

KOHLMANN: And as a result, Zarqawi himself attacked Hezbollah, saying, you‘re providing a wall between us and the Israelis. So, yes, I think Zawahiri wants a pieces action. Not as part and parcel of Hezbollah, but independently, separately as a competing influence in Lebanon.

CARLSON: So these two groups also have religious differences, Hezbollah being a Shiite group, al Qaeda being a pretty aggressive Sunni Muslim group. Is there anything the United States can do to exacerbate tensions between them so they can eat each other and then spare the world a lot of heartache?

KOHLMANN: Well, it‘s troublesome, because unfortunately, these two groups, as much as they hate each other, they also hate the West. But, that being said, I think the Shiites that are within Hezbollah tend to be a lot more pragmatic and a lot more future-sighted than those in al Qaeda.

CARLSON: Yes.

KOHLMANN: And I think we can reach some kind of accommodation with Hezbollah one way or the other. It doesn‘t have to be an issue of friendship. But at least we can find a way of Hezbollah not directly attacking us. I think Hezbollah may have learned its lesson here. I think they bit off more than they could chew. And I don‘t think they‘re looking for some kind of apocalyptic battle that Zawahiri is talking about. So I don‘t see an alliance between them.

CARLSON: Well, that‘s exactly what—that‘s exactly—look, let me put it this way. We met with Hezbollah yesterday, an American television crew. Obviously American. They didn‘t murder us. Do you think we could meet with al Qaeda? I don‘t think so. We wouldn‘t get anywhere.

KOHLMANN: No, it‘s two very—two very separate groups.

CARLSON: So, right, it‘s this completely different idea than al Qaeda. Is the United States making a mistake by not recognizing that Hezbollah actually has something to lose? They have political power in Lebanon, for instance, and maybe we should suck it up and negotiate with them. As horrifying as that sounds, maybe it‘s in our interest to do that. I don‘t know, is it?

KOHLMANN: Well, negotiating is a strong word. But at least talking with them...

CARLSON: Talk.

KOHLMANN: ... sounds like a wise idea. The same thing with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. These organizations are not our friends. In fact, by many definitions they‘re our adversaries.

CARLSON: Of course.

KOHLMANN: But, then again, they also share adversaries us with, the same way that during the Cold War we shared Russia as an adversary with the Chinese. In the 1970‘s, Richard Nixon took a very brave move and he negotiated with the Chinese, even though they, too, were our adversaries. That relationship worked very well, and potentially you could see the same thing again between the United States and between Shiites or—I mean, this is exactly what al Qaeda fears most. This is what Zarqawi used to talk about. He used to say the end comes when Iran and the United States ally against us. That‘s what they‘re afraid of.

CARLSON: That‘s right.

KOHLMANN: So, you know, maybe it is something to consider.

CARLSON: Anything to defeat al Qaeda, that would be my position. Evan Kohlmann, thanks a lot for coming on. I appreciate it.

KOHLMANN: Thank you.

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