New Bin Laden Message to Address Gaza and Lebanon...PROBABLY NOT (updated 7/22)
By
Andrew Cochran
UPDATED 7/22 WITH NEW INFORMATION: ABC News reported on Friday, July 21 that "A new Osama bin Laden message from al Qaeda's as-Sahab Institute for Media Production is to be released soon, according to IntelCenter, which monitors extremist websites. Sites have begun to advertise a new message. In his message, bin Laden will reportedly address events in Gaza and Lebanon." Laura Mansfield told us the upcoming message was announced on Thursday, but she wasn't sufficiently confident of the source at that time to make any announcement. Here's the translated announcement provided on Friday by Laura:
Breaking news,God willing the Media Department of the Al-Qaeda Network will be made an announcement in the coming few hours regarding a tape from the fighting sheikh Abu Abdullah Osama Bin Laden speaking about about Lebanon and Gaza and Iraq Allah Akbar
UPDATE, 2:50 pm ET: However, as of Saturday at 3 pm ET, there has been no confirmation of an upcoming message from as-Sahab itself. Moreover,
Evan Kohlmann warned us on Friday that, "The indicators that would suggest a new Bin Laden audio is coming out are more or less flat. There was one random message on the Internet posted by one random person, that's it. At least in my book, that's what you call an interesting but unsubstantiated rumor." And Rita Katz informed Site Institute subscribers on Friday that the message "should be considered inauthentic and uncorroborated."
A supportive statement by OBL would conflict with the fatwa issued against Hezbollah by a leading Saudi Wahabi cleric. Evan Kohlmann sent a translation of the fatwa: "The support of this [Shiite] sect is not permissible, and joining under their command is not permissible, and you are neither permitted to pray for their victory and martyrdom. Our advice to the Sunnis is that they renounce [Hezbollah]... [who have shown] their enmity to Islam, Muslims, and their attacks both in the past and present on Sunnis. They try to profit as much as possible from the problems of the Sunnis... cunningly... If anyone joins them, then they should understand Allah's verdict when he said, 'those from among you who support them [the infidels] are in fact part of them."
At this point at 3 pm ET on Saturday, I've come to the conclusion that there is no authentic message announcing an upcoming OBL tape.
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