Outbreak of Fighting in Southern Philippines, Puts Moro Peace Process in Jeopardy

By Zachary Abuza

This past week saw a spate of fighting that has seriously challenged the peace process in the southern Philippines. The fighting began with attacks by pro-government paramilitaries on Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) villages in Maguindanao. This was in response to a 23 June car bombing – cum assassination attempt on the anti-MILF governor of Maguindanao, Andal Ampatuan, that killed six people, including two of his relatives, that was allegedly perpetrated by the MILF. The MILF counter-attacks provoked Philippine military intervention. On Monday, 3 July, after 3 days of fighting, that produced 5,000 refugees, the MILF ordered its forces to stand down at the request of the small contingent of Malaysian truce monitors. The breakdown of the ceasefire that has held fairly well for over a year and a half now is not surprising, and is testimony to increasing frustration within the ranks of the MILF; sadly it has repercussions for the war on terror in Southeast Asia.

The peace process, according to both the government and the MILF had made substantial progress. In April 2005, both sides announced a major breakthrough, though since then, talks have faltered. And the MILF has questioned the government’s sincerity and capacity to implement the agreement, especially with President Arroyo in such a weakened state. Many in the organization have grown frustrated with the peace process, and indeed, many hardliners in the MILF questioned the wisdom of negotiation in the first place. The moderate leadership will be increasingly under fire if they cannot deliver in the near future. In February 2006, there were already coup rumors about Chairman Ebrahim el Haj Murad circulating.

Without a durable peace, the MILF will have no choice but to give members of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the Abu Sayyaf and other transnational jihadist sanctuary, in order to bolster their dissipating military capabilities.

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