Counterterrorism Blog

Although details of an apparent jihadi plot to bomb the Holland Tunnel, attack subways in NYC and flood Manhattan are just emerging--rendering analysis at this stage far from scientific--several points have already presented themselves that seem worthy of further exploration (assuming, of course, they are credible).

First, "Amir Andalousi" appears to be a jihadi nom de guerre for a resident of Spain, likely named after the Andalusian Caliphate--a frequent point of reference for jihadis from that country as post-3/11 investigations have demonstrated. The New York Daily News also notes that U.S. officials have linked the plot to al-Zarqawi's network, which is known to have a foothold in that country evidenced by recent arrests of al-Zarqawi-linked jihadis and my conversations with European officials. The sum of this information suggests that, if the plot is credible, given "Andalousli's" apparent Spanish link, look for the investigation to span the Mediterranean and possibly involve individuals affiliated (even tangentially) with the Sunni Asbat al-Ansar network in Lebanon. Asbat al-Ansar has sent multiple fighters to Iraq and has thus forged some natural links with al-Zarqawi's networks. Social networks linked by common worldviews and shared experiences--especially combat--make some form of cooperation or affiliation a natural in this case.

Second, this is the first known instance of an al-Zarqawi-linked plot to target the continental U.S. (CONUS), if preliminary information is credible. In any case, future analysis should focus on the possible presence of Americans in this plot--whether converts, naturalized citizens, or second or third-generation immigrants--as former plots against CONUS also indicate their presence. For instance, in the 1993 WTC plot, "Dr. Rashid"--a convert from Moorish Science to radical Islam and a former US Army veteran--was a logistician for the cell. However, if the plot did not move past the “talking phase,” as initial reporting suggests, and was conceived entirely by individuals living overseas, the possibility of U.S. resident involvement decreases.

Third, although details of the cell's targeting methodology are hazy at this early stage, these might provide an interesting case study of how banter in the jihadi cyber-sphere materializes into a plot. For example, we know that various jihadis have written in the past about how Hurricane Katrina acted as “Allah’s soldier”—a view these individuals apparently held, according to the media—so examining the process of how a symbol of American catastrophe turns into a catalyst for jihadi operations merits our attention. It is also interesting to note that flooding has never before (at least according to the author’s knowledge) been mentioned as a weapon in the arsenal of global jihad, although one can see how it could be legitimized in the language of “reciprocity” by which jihadis pragmatically justify their actions and ignore other established tenets of Islamic just war theory.

Finally, a question with security and policy ramifications must be raised: At what point does banter become a plot? As the 2004 plot by loosely networked Dutch jihadis (called the “Hofstad Group” by authorities) to attack a nuclear reactor in Holland suggests, many (especially smaller) jihadi cells often are much more bark than bite; they often scale-down their grand ambitions to match their capabilities. This may well be the case here. Flooding Manhattan seems such a grandiose aspiration that even the most sophisticated, globally networked and well-entrenched jihadi organizations like the pre-2002 al-Qa’idah would likely balk at its chances for success. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the danger of individuals with high intent and low capabilities; the templates of Richard Reid, Muhammad Bouyeri and some of the 7/7 bombers suggest that, based upon the initial information in this case, the FBI made the right move. Nevertheless, defining where speech ends and plotting begins is an imprecise, if necessary, science that challenges legal boundaries, both here and in Europe.

As with any plot at this point, we have far more questions than answers.