Zawahiri's New Message: A Landmark Call for Unity or A Tempest in a Teapot?

By Evan Kohlmann

Many observers of the recent violence in Lebanon wondered if and when Sunni Muslims -- particularly Al-Qaida -- might respond sympathetically to their Shiite brethren among Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Some have quickly jumped at the news of a new video from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri discussing the conflict in Lebanon as incontrovertible evidence of a "seismic shift" within the Muslim world towards a united Shiite-Sunni front against Israel and the West.

However, once again, it would behoove us all to listen to the language and words coming from Al-Qaida supporters and sympathizers, rather than trying to interpret Zawahiri's speech from a outside Western perspective. The truth is, within the community that supports Al-Qaida, there is no precise consensus yet on the meaning of Zawahiri's speech. However, the one comment that seems to resonate most frequently among extremist Sunnis is that, in no way, does this video take away from the dire, existential conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. At a maximum, this is being termed a public relations move by Al-Qaida intended to encourage its operatives to temporarily focus their anger on America and its allies, and waiting until later to deliver the same violent fate to the Shiites. At a minimum, others are suggesting that Zawahiri is merely encouraging Sunni Muslims to travel to Lebanon in order to fight Israel--separately from the Shiites--just as they did in Iraq beginning in 2003. In other words, Zawahiri is encouraging the development of a fully-functioning independent Al-Qaida unit in Lebanon, not its merging with Hezbollah.

This discussion will no doubt continue to roil in the coming days -- and observers would be wise to carefully pay attention to the actual words of Al-Qaida's leaders and supporters rather than relying on diluted media interpretations or alternatively our own estranged theoretical perspectives.

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