New Video Coming From Ayman al-Zawahiri and American Al Qaeda (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Rita Katz's SITE Institute and Laura Mansfield, each of whom we rely upon for reliable information on upcoming Al Qaeda videos, have seen an announcement by Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media arm of a forthcoming new video. The video is titled, "“Invitation to Islam” and includes Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri and a man who appears to be "Azzam the American," a.k.a. Adam Gadahn. The banner announcing the video is posted on Laura's site. Al-Zawahiri's last video was released in early August.

Counterterrorism Blog experts have posted on "Azzam the American":

Evan Kohlmann, "MSNBC: 'American greases al-Qaida media machine'" and "American Al-Qaida Operative Surfaces Again in Bin Laden Video Release"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, "New al-Qaeda Tape Continues Appeasement Theme"

Hizballah Rearmament Has Begun

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In summarizing winners and losers of the Israel-Hizballah conflict, my colleague Bill Roggio wrote the following in declaring Hizballah a winner:

While the Israeli military may have dealt Hezbollah a tactical defeat generally in southern Lebanon, killed a significant number of Hezbollah soldiers, degraded Hezbollah's long range rocket supplies and was able to push to the Litani at the end of the campaign, Hezbollah's military and political organization survived to fight another day. The resupply of medium and long range rockets from the Iranian and Syrian backers will begin immediately, and the Syrian supply lines into the Bekaa valley remain wide open. . . . Hezbollah will now direct the full efforts of its aid organizations to rebuild the damaged infrastructure and provide for those Lebanese in need. The combination of the military victory along with the ability to care for the Lebanese in ways the State cannot will only increase their stature and support.

I agreed with this assessment at the time. And despite Hassan Nasrallah's protestation that he regrets the conflict with Israel, I believe that events are proving Bill's assessment correct -- as a new Stratfor analysis on Hizballah's rearmament indicates.

TAK Terror Group Carries Out a Series of Bombings in Turkey

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Aftermath of the Antalya bombing.

Over the past few days, Turkey has been hit by a string of bombings. On Sunday night and Monday morning, four separate blasts injured at least twenty people. The first blast, which came around 11:00 p.m. Sunday in the garden of an Istanbul school, wounded at least six. Then, just after midnight, the Aegean Sea resort town of Marmaris experienced three blasts. According to the Turkish Daily News, the first of these bombs "ripped through a shuttle bus ferrying tourists along one of the resort's main streets" after being placed under one of its seats. Subsequently, two other bombs stashed in garbage bins exploded, causing no injuries, "though some reports suggested those had not detonated properly."

Later on Monday, a bomb exploded in the coastal resort city of Antalya. Two people were killed in the explosion, and a third died later in the hospital. And another blast in the port city of Mersin injured a twenty-year-old woman.

Although the PKK has been the main perpetrator of recent attacks against Turkey, these blasts have been claimed by another group, the Teyrbazen Azadiya Kurdistan (TAK), also known as the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks or Kurdistan Freedom Falcons. This group, which first appeared in 2004, is shrouded in secrecy -- as shown by the Terrorism Knowledge Base's discussion of the group. For one thing, the group's origin, composition and affiliations are the subject of debate:

Some analysts believe that the group is either a small splinter of or an alias for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the most active Kurdish militant group. Others, however, suggest that the group may be totally independent of the PKK, or only loosely connected to it. PKK leaders deny having any control over the TAK.

Moreover, the TAK's precise goals are unclear. Although it is clearly part of the wider Kurdish nationalist movement, it's unclear if the TAK seeks an independent Kurdish state or if its goals are more limited in scope (or if it solely focused on revenge for Turkish misdeeds).

While the TAK's earliest attacks were small and non-lethal "warning actions" in public places, it has become increasingly violent since then. It claimed responsibility for a summer 2005 explosion in the coastal resort town of Cesme that injured at least twenty people, as well as another attack less than a week later that killed five people in another seaside town. Bombings against tourist targets are now TAK's signature: the tourist industry is a strategic target becuase of its economic importance. According to the Terrorism Knowledge Base, "The TAK claims to have no desire to kill foreigners, only that it wishes to cut off a key source of revenue for the Turkish government."

The recent rash of bombings will likely make investigation of the TAK a top priority for Turkish intelligence. Given the attention Turkey has devoted to the PKK lately (see my blog entries here and here, for example), one focus of this investigation will likely be the TAK/PKK relationship. If Turkey comes to believe that there is a strong connection between the two groups, that will almost certainly lead to an escalation of Turkish military activities in northern Iraq.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Steven Emerson: Hezbollah Apologist Wins "Human Relations" Award... in the U.S. (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson appeared tonight on Fox News Channel's "Hannity & Colmes" to discuss his article on "The New Republic Online" website, "Prize Fighter - A Hezbollah Apologist Wins an Award for Tolerance." In the article, Steve discloses the radical anti-American and anti-Israeli statements of Maher Hathout, president of the Islamic Center of Southern California and a senior adviser to the Muslim Public Affairs Council. Despite his empathy for terrorists, Hathout will receive an award for "oustanding human relations work" in Los Angeles in October. "The New Republic Online" has generously allowed us to reprint the complete article here (Word file). An excerpt:

In October 2000, Maher Hathout attended a rally in Lafayette Park across from the White House. His speech was captured on video for posterity by the Investigative Project on Terrorism. He told the assembled crowd that he was not surprised by what he called the "atrocities committed by the apartheid brutal state of Israel." After all, he reasoned, "butchers do what butchers do, and ... what is expected from a racist apartheid [state] is what is happening now."

Fast forward six years. The Los Angeles County Commission on Human Relations announced last Tuesday that Hathout, president of the Islamic Center of Southern California and a senior adviser to the Muslim Public Affairs Council (mpac), would receive its prestigious John Allen Buggs Award in luncheon ceremonies on October 5. The award is given annually for what the commission describes as "outstanding human relations work."

A man who called Israel a nation of butchers (he didn't stop there; he has also accused the United States of committing state terrorism) is about to be honored with a major award for effective practices in human relations work. Is this any different than giving, say, David Duke an award for healing racial relations?

President Bush, Sudan and Paul Salopeck

By Douglas Farah

President Bush made the unusual, and breathtakingly unwise, offer to meet with Lt. Gen. Omar Hassan al-Bashir, Sudan's bloody dictator, "on the side" in New York during the general's UN visit later in September. This, after al-Bashir, responsible for the genocide in Darfur, the blocking of peacekeeping forces despite agreeing to let them in, deliberately and throughly humiliated Bush's personal envoy to Sudan, as described in painful detail in The Washington Post.

How can this be? The regime sponsors the janjaweed, maintains terrorist connections with Islamist groups, leaves an envoy cooling her heels for three days (because the president was "busy") and imprisons Paul Salopek, one of the best and most respected foreign correspondents in the business, on bogus charges of espionage. (If you want to read about who my friend Paul Salopek really is, see this great piece in the Seattle Time).

The price for all this? An offer of a private visit with the president in New York. My full blog is here.

Counterterrorism Blog Posts on Tariq Ramadan

By Andrew Cochran

Doug Farah's post below discusses yet another attempt by Tariq Ramadan to enter the country, with the help of his American allies (including those in the U.S. government). We've addressed him and the publicly available evidence, which supports denial of entry, in previous posts. Key Members of Congress have acted quietly in the past to prevent his entry, with the assistance of several Contributing Experts, and I anticipate the Congressmen will do so again.

Steven Emerson's "Tariq Ramadan: The Case of the Grand Deception," posted April 1, 2005, is the most direct and detailed post on the subject. One paragraph:

In several interviews given to various European publications over the last few years, Mr. Ramadan has repeatedly provided a justification for terrorist acts against US allies such as Israel and Russia and, more recently, against the US itself. Asked by the Italian magazine Panorama if the killing of civilians is right, Mr. Ramadan unambiguously responded that "In Palestine, Iraq, Chechnya, there is a situation of oppression, repression and dictatorship. It is legitimate for Muslims to resist fascism that kills the innocent." When asked if car bombing against US forces in Iraq were legitimate, Professor Ramadan responded that "Iraq was colonized by the Americans. The resistance against the army is just."

Other CT Blog posts on Ramadan, his Muslim Brotherhood pedigree, and applicable U.S. immigration laws:

Olivier Guitta, "Londonistan is alive and kicking"

Lorenzo Vidino, "State Department’s flirting with the Muslim Brotherhood"

Bill West, "Keeping out Terror Inciters"

Steven Emerson, "Our New Reports on Terrorist Threats to Italy and the Muslim Brotherhood in France"

Two Visitors Who Should Not be Let In

By Douglas Farah

There is disturbing news on several fronts regarding how the administration is handling the competing pressures as it seeks to promote democracy and fight Islamist extemism at the same time. The first is a state visit by the president of Kazakhstan. The second is the possible visit of the new leading light of the Muslim Brotherhood, Tariq Ramadan, something of a rock star in European Muslim communities but still a radical Islamist who poses as a moderate.

President Bush's decision, as outlined in the Washington Post is to not only invite Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev for a state visit but to have him to Camp David. Here we have one of the most corrupt agents of the former Soviet Union, accused of stealing tens of millions of dollars while jailing opponents and stifling all manner of civil liberties, now a treated as a great friend.

It is important that Nazabayev helped secure an atomic arsenal, no doubt. But is he really the type of leader one wants to legitimize as a "good friend" when he represents nothing the U.S. should stand for? Like Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, without his oil Nazarbayev would be just one more odious dictator that one would ignore, or at least certainly not fete at the president's private residence. The fact that Kazakhstan is now a base of operations for Viktor Bout, who is arming radical the radical Islamist regime in Somalia, also seems to be forgotten. My full blog is here.

ON THE AXIS OF JIHADISM

By Walid Phares

By Walid Phares and Behrooz Bahbudi

The Washington Post

Because for 11 years years, the American public wasn’t informed about the threat that lead to September 11 and because the classrooms and newsrooms of the United States were not educated enough about the global threat of “Jihadism,” we feel it is incumbent on individual citizens to educate themselves about this danger and mobilize to prevent a Future Jihad looming around the world and at home. It is important that American citizens understand who the “Jihadists” are, what they want to achieve, and how they are proceeding. Without this knowledge, the American public will be unable to be part of the political debate about national security and the War on Terror. And if deprived from the support of an informed public, the US Government, now and in the future, cannot sustain difficult decisions pertaining to the defeat of the Terrorist enemy.

The ideology of the Terrorists: Jihadism

American and other democratic societies around the world, including Jewish, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim and other, have been subjected to an international ideological campaign by the ”Jihadists” who aim to bring about a worldwide domination, that is the creation of a totalitarian global regime, similar to the Taliban. Their ideology opposes Democracy, Pluralism, Secularism, and is a direct threat to Peace.

“Jihadism” rejects international law as we know it, the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, most governments around the world, women’s rights as agreed on in modern times, free arts and expression, and any interpretation of the universe, history, and values other than their own. “Jihadism” discriminates against all humans who do not abide by their vision. It calls them “Kuffars” (Infidels). This ideology prescribes violence against the “Infidels” should they be Christians, Jews, Hindus, Muslims or others; it calls for a global warfare against all who oppose them; and it terms this war “Jihad”. Hence, this ideology, in its various forms and expressions, is against international law and should be banned by the international community.

Jihadists: The Two Forces

There are two major “trees” of Jihadism: The Salafists and the Khumeinists. The Salafists, influenced by the radical Wahabis and the “Muslim Brotherhood” call for the removal of the current Arab and Muslim Governments and their replacement by a worldwide power they call “Caliphate.” The Salafist movement produced al Qaeda and its affiliates around the world and identifies itself as “The International Salafi Jihadi Movement.” It is omnipresent in the Muslim world and has a significant presence inside democracies worldwide. The Salafi Jihadists established the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. This was the model they wished to multiply around the globe. The Khumeinists are the Jihadist followers of the teachings of Iranian Ayatollah Ruhallah Khumeini. They have established what they call an “Islamic Republic” in Iran and have funded movements, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranian Regime oppresses its own peoples and seeks regional and world expansion through Terrorism and Nuclear threat.

Axis of Jihadism

Each of the two “Jihadi” blocs has its own strategy and area of action: al Qaeda and the Salafists have infiltrated many countries and penetrated some government institutions in the Muslim world. They have also established cells within Western and other democracies. The Khumeinist Jihadists have full control of Iran’s regime and created an axis of terror in the Middle East, including the Baathist regime of Syria and Hezbollah. Both powers aim at crumbling America, undermining democracies and repressing freedoms in the Arab and Muslim world. Although with different long-term goals, the Jihadi Salafists and Khumeinists have converging interests against common enemies: democracies. In many places and on different occasions the two blocs of Jihadism have established interim alliances: the regimes in Iran, Syria and Sudan and the organizations of al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Jemaa Islamiya, and many others have cooperated: against democracies and civil societies, they have formed an axis of Jihadism. This is what the American public and civil societies around the world are up against since the 1990s. The victims of Jihadism belong to all ethnicities and religions: from the Muslim Sunni civilians in Algeria, the black Africans in Sudan, the Copts of Egypt, Shiites and Kurds of Iraq, Christians and others in Lebanon, innocents in Indonesia, Iran, to the societies of Russia, Argentina, India, Europe and the United States.

In short, humanity is under attack by Jihadism. The American people must learn more about the ideological movement that is waging war against them. The American public must ask the U.S. Congress to investigate Jihadism.

Dr Behrooz Behbudi President, Global Unity Partnership US Citizen born in Tehran, Educated in Iran and the West. Advocate for Democracy in the Greater Middle East .

Dr Walid Phares Senior fellow, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Professor of Middle East Studies.

The Washington Post August 30, 2006 - Page A16

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Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

The Indonesian police announced a new twist in the ongoing investigation into the Bali II knapsack bombings that took place last October. (On 1 October 2005, three Indonesian suicide bombers set off knapsacks at three restaurants on the island resort of Bali.) Early on, it was assumed that Jemaah Islamiyah fugitives Noordin Top and Azhari Husein had been the masterminds behind these attacks, and in fact this proved to be the case.

Last week, however, it was learned that jailed JI militant Imam Samudra, who is on death row for the October 2002 Bali bombings, had also been involved in planning the October 2005 strike. Apparently, as-yet unidentified persons had smuggled a laptop into Samudra's Bali jail cell, enabling him to make internet contact with JI members on the outside, including some apparently involved in the Bali II planning.

The extent of Samudra's internet connections are still being investigated, but it is believed that he participated in an Indonesian-language chatroom, and also had contact with an Indonesian militant website called anshor.net. Exactly what assistance or guidance he provided for the Bali II bombers is not yet known.

Also unknown is how he was able to obtain a laptop. Indonesian prisons are notorious for the types of goods and services that can be smuggled inside; even by these standards, however, it is shocking that such a high-profile terrorist could gain access to a computer connected to the internet.

Cynics might point out that this story comes at an opportune time for the government. Samudra was supposed to be executed in August, though a recent appeal had delayed his visit to a firing squad. Now that he is being investigated for the smuggled laptop, the date can be pushed back even farther. The government is loathe to execute Samudra and two other Bali bombers because they fear political blowback from Islamic conservatives.

Treasury Department Designates Islamic Resistance Support Organization (IRSO), Key Hizballah Fundraiser

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury Department has announced the designation of the Islamic Resistance Support Organization (IRSO), a key Hizballah fundraising organization, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. I quote from the press release:

"While some terrorist-supporting charities try to obscure their support for violence, IRSO makes no attempt to hide its true colors. IRSO's fundraising materials present donors with the option of sending funds to equip Hizballah fighters or to purchase rockets that Hizballah uses to target civilian populations," said Stuart Levey, Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) "IRSO works to inflict suffering rather than alleviate it."

Hizballah uses IRSO to solicit donations in support of its terrorist activities. Specifically, IRSO solicits funds for Hizballah through advertisements broadcast on Hizballah's al-Manar television station. IRSO has identified itself to prospective donors as one and the same as Hizballah.

Solicitation materials distributed by IRSO inform prospective donors that funds will be used to purchase sophisticated weapons and conduct operations. Indeed, donors can choose from a series of projects to contribute to, including, supporting and equipping fighters and purchasing rockets and ammunition.

The press release also included Acrobat files of the donor form in Arabic and English, which you can download from below. Recall that a Pakistani American was arrested last week for disseminating al-Manar, which is already designated, from a location in New York City. This designation shuts IRSO out of the U.S. financial system, by prohibiting transactions with it by U.S. persons and freezing any assets it may have under U.S. jurisdiction.

IRSO Arabic Donor Form and IRSO English Donor Form

Coming Soon: Investigation of Lebanese Terrorist Recruitment in Europe

By Andrew Cochran

Two Contributing Experts are collaborating on a special investigation of terrorist recruitment in Europe by Lebanese-based militants. They will post their findings within a few days.

Hezbollah's propaganda exposed during Annan's visit (updated 8/29 with pictures)

By CTB Special Correspondent

Editor's Note: Karim is a special correspondent for the Counterterrorism Blog (he posted on July 24) and is currently in Lebanon. UPDATE 8/29: Pictures from the demonstration added below.

Hezbollah's staged mini-demonstration in the southern suburb of Beirut has been exposed by unauthorized media footage. (Editor's Note added 8/29: I have verified that the footage was taken by a well known and respected media source, but we won't reveal the name for fear of damaging its contacts in Lebanon.) During a visit to the Hezbollah former "security square," destroyed during the war with Israel, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was greeted by a prepared crowd of Hezbollah militants. Accompanied by Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora, Dr. Annan was escorted by Lebanese Army security, apparently very friendly with Hezbollah Department of Security. The Lebanese Army officers and Hezbollah were seen smiling at each other and coordinating the staged demonstration. A camera linked to an international media agency was broadcasting live from behind the Hezbollah's security lines. It captured the details of the "show." A group of women and girls, in traditional Muslim dresses and scarves were gathered by Hezbollah bearded security some 15 minutes before the motorcade arrives. The gathering was at about 30 feet away from where Annan's car was supposed to stop. This indicates that the motorcade security and the Hezbollah operatives knew ahead of time where the spot would be and had the women standing and waiting. Posters of Hassan Nasrallah were then distributed to the women. The camera showed a group of bearded men standing few meters behind the first line of women as a "second brigade." Then the camera showed the group of women tightening their positioning while few men with hats and "talkies" positioned themselves behind the women and started shouting orders: "Clap when Annan gets out of the car," they screamed to the women. The latter complied with "passion," raising the posters of Nasrallah. "Boo when Seniora appears," the Hezbollah's operators shouted. A huge boo was produced, not only by the women, but also by the men standing behind them.

As the UN delegation approached the group walking, the women screamed the name of Nasrallah and behind them couple men screamed "down, down, USA" (especially when the international media appeared). As soon as the officials walked farther, and as in a choreographed play, the women dispersed themselves opening the path for the militiamen looking males to rush behind the delegation walking through the ruins. Responding to orders barked form inside the group, the mens' "demo" got loud and slogans were shouted with greater energy and menace. Interestingly, and since the camera was filming live from behind and feeding it to satellite around the world, observers were able to "see" the whole operation to its most detailed developments. The last security men of the UN delegation facing the following crowd were smiling at the security cadres of Hezbollah and keeping the exact distance needed for the shouting to be heard and for the international cameras to film the delegation surrounded by angry people, hoping the sympathizing translators and editors would make the right comments on BBC, CNN, and of course on al Jazeera, and by the next morning, the right articles will be printed in the New York Times, the Guardian and Le Monde. The show got even more detailed, as the camera was feeding the footage live and raw, when a Hezbollah militiaman screamed at a media cameraman who had climbed onto rubbles to have a bigger view of the crowd and the whole picture. The Hezbollah operatives, along with a security man from the Lebanese Army rushed to remove the cameraman from where he was, which was logical, as he could have filmed the staging machine and more importantly the "size" of the demonstration. Back to the demonstration: the Lebanese state-security elements were telling the Hezbollah fellows, "tameem, azeem," (very good, excellent). The "commissaries" behind the lines of the males were changing the slogans from "Long live Nasrallah" to "Down with the US." In a few minutes, the delegation headed back to the cars, Kofi Annan apparently impressed with the "people's voice." When the convoy left, the men and women of Hezbollah's demonstration vanished leaving regular bystanders to themselves. Interestingly as well, whenever the camera showed a journalist, especially with cameras, a Hizbollah militiaman was just few feet away.

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What is Russia's Real Game?

By Douglas Farah

In an increasingly confused world, it has become apparent that Russia, for all its talk, is consistently positioning itself against the interests of the United States, Europe-and often on the side of Islamist radicals.

It is not just true in the U.N. Security Council with Iran, where, along with China, Russia is protecting an important client despite what such support means.

It is also true in Lebanon (directly and through Iran), the republic of Georgia and Somalia, where Russian weapons merchants, including but not limited to Viktor Bout, are supplying large amounts of weapons to fuel wars that will have a devastating impact on entire regions. In each case the beneficiary is going to be enemies of development, democracy and human rights. The beneficiaries will be radical Islamists.

President Bush famously warned that in the war on terrorism, you are with us or against us. The Russians, it seems, like the Pakistanis, Saudis and many others, are both. Russia is a particularly troubling case because of the quantitiy and quality of weapons its possesses, as well as the nuclear arsenal at least nominally under its control. My full blog is here.

Daily Standard: The New Taliban

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Several times on this blog I have discussed the Islamic Courts Union's consolidation of power (see, for example, my August 14 and August 17 analysis). Today my colleague Kyle Dabruzzi and I have a new article posted at the Daily Standard, entitled "The New Taliban," that examines the ICU's gains in greater detail. An excerpt:

AMERICANS AND OTHER WESTERNERS FREQUENTLY have trouble comprehending why they should care about events occurring half a world away in Africa. One reason we should care is that the ICU's expansion may escalate into interstate warfare.
Ethiopia views the Islamic militia's rise as a matter of great concern, and has expressed its solidarity with Somalia's transitional government. Ethiopian information minister Berhan Hailu has said, "We will use all means at our disposal to crush the Islamist group if they attempt to attack Baidoa."

Ethiopian troops have reportedly been in Somalia since late July. Just as the Ethiopian government has threatened to use military force against the ICU, the ICU has vowed to attack Ethiopian soldiers in Somali territory. Thus far there haven't been any clashes, but both sides are clearly ready to fight. Each seems to be waiting for the other to strike first.

AND THERE IS AN EVEN MORE PRESSING REASON why Westerners should care about the ICU's rise: the striking similarity between its ascendance in Somalia and that of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

One similarity is that as the ICU has gained power, Somalis have welcomed its rule because it is seen as a force for stability. Rival warlords have ruled Somalia since the fall of president Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. According to a Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder, "[t]he warlords' militias were notorious for indiscriminate violence: Women and girls were often raped and locals could not move about the city without fear of being killed. Since the ICU took control, experts say there are noticeably fewer guns on the streets, and people move freely throughout the city without fear of attack."

Read the whole article here.

Storming of Romanian Oil Rig Continues Iran's Provocative Actions

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Iran seized a Romanian oil rig off Kish Island.

On August 22, a few hours before Iran delivered its response to the UN about its nuclear program, an Iranian warship fired on a Romanian oil rig and seized it. The New York Sun reports:

An Iranian naval vessel fired on the rig, named Orizont, owned by Grup Servicii Petroliere in Iran's offshore Salman field and took control of its radio room at about 7 a.m. local time, Grup's representative in the United Arab Emirates, Lulu Tabanesku, said in a phone interview from Dubai yesterday. "The Iranians fired at the rig's crane with machine guns," Mr. Tabanesku said. "They are in control now, and we can't contact the rig." The Romanian company has 26 workers on the platform, he said.

Although the Romanians are working to defuse the situation and have reportedly agreed that the incident was "of a commercial nature," there is much more to the seizure than that. Iran has engaged in a number of provocative moves lately, and this incident must be seen as part of a broader picture.

Iran has been Hizballah's major sponsor for decades, and its fingerprints were all over the flare-up in Lebanon between Hizballah and Israel. Over this past weekend, Iran kicked off a masive five-week military exercise designed to showcase its capabilities. It has been reported that "[a]ssault and transport helicopters, parachutists, electronic war units and special forces are participating in the initial manoeuvre." And a fourth provocative action occurred Monday, when Iran denied IAEA inspectors access to an underground facility at Natanz designed to shelter its uranium enrichment program from attack. This comes on top of other signs of Iranian defiance over its nuclear program, including denying entry visas to two IAEA inspectors and issuing several inspectors single-entry visas rather than the customary multiple-entry visas.

One clear purpose behind Iran's seizure of the Romanian rig was a show of force. Heinrich Matthee, Iran analyst for London's Control Risk Group, has noted that storming the rig "sends a message that Iran can project its power and could interfere in oil production." But there is also a gamesmanship aspect to Iran's actions. With each defiant move that Iran has made, Western countries have done little or nothing to push back. As Iran is not held accountable for such actions as backing Hizballah in its war against Israel and denying IAEA inspectors access to key nuclear sites, it comes to believe -- with reason -- that it will have more leeway in the way it operates in the future. If there is no real repercussion to Iran's seizure of the Romanian rig, then Iran will have further expanded the boundaries for its future actions.

Western countries have no apparent strategy for dealing with Iran at this point, but the question of how to begin pushing back in response to these provocative actions is a critical one.

The Power of Non-State Actors in Middle East Grows

By Douglas Farah

One of the great successes of the Islamists, particularly the Shi'ites, is the ability to create separate states within weak and failing states. The prime examples are Hezbollah and, as the Washington Post chronicles today, Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq.

One could argue that there are groups within the Iranian intelligence and security apparatus that also form non-state groups. The alliance of these elements, with no formal power, to ally in transnational, borderless associations and alliances, is what poses one of the largest threats to the Middle East and beyond.

The weakness of the states that allow these groups to flourish gives these groups, along with Hamas and other Islamist and non-Islamist organizations, the priceless ability to provide social services, remedy injustice and corruption and generally make people's lives better on a measureable level.

At the same time, the states in which they reside do not have the strength to drive them out or confront them. Hezbollah was able to launch a war the state of Lebanon probably did not want and certainly could not win.

One of the most fascinating elements of the al Sadr piece was the recognition in the group that attacking the U.S. forces would be counterproductive. My full blog is here.

Arrest of 12 Passengers on Netherlands-India Flight Merits Further Investigation

By Walid Phares

Twelve passengers on a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Mumbai, India were arrested today after passengers and crew noticed suspicious behavior over Germany, with the plane escorted by Dutch F-16s. Why is this important and why should it be investigated further?

1. All twelve were using their cell phones after the plane took off. You never see an entire group of passengers engage in such flagrantly illegal behavior. Were they talking with each other and with others at their destination?

2. They were flying out of Amsterdam, and the Netherlands is one of the centers of Islamist extremism in Europe. See this post by my colleague Lorenzo Vidino last October, and recall the murder of Theo van Gogh there.

3. They were flying to Mumbai (Bombay), India, scene of a deadly series of train bombings on July 11. I posted on that event here on July 12, and my CT Blog colleagues posted about it also.

Maybe it will turn out to be nothing, but this event merits further investigation.

Islamic Courts Consolidates Power in Somalia

By Bill Roggio

Map of Somalia, recent gains by the Islamic Courts marked in red. Click map to view.

Somalia continues the slide into the darkness of a radical Islamist state. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the al-Qaeda linked leader of the Islamic Courts is consolidating power in Somalia by taking control of vital lines of communications, organizing the army of the Islamic Courts, and instituting shariah law throughout the areas it controls.

As Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has noted, the Islamic Courts have taken control of the port cities of Harardhere, Eldher and Hoyobo, as well as Beletuein on the border with Ethiopia. The flights of arms shipments from Kazakistan reported by Douglas Farah continue to fly into Mogadishu's airport to this day.

The Islamic Courts, using money funneled from the Arabian peninsula, is arming its fighters with new weapons, and sending its fighters to receive professional training. "This is the beginning, but thousands of other gunmen will be trained. You are the ones who will disarm civilians, restore law and order and help enforce Sharia law," Aweys said to a group of 600 fighters at the Hilweyne military camp. As the army of the Islamic Courts ramps up, soldiers of the Transitional Federal Government (TGF) continue to defect. Over 100 TGF fighters stationed near Baidoa have defected to the Islamic Courts, and 500 total have defected since the Islamic Courts grabbed power in July.

Palestinian Terrorists Release Tape of Kidnapped Journalists (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Al Jazeera has released a tape from a previously unknown group, the "Holy Jihad Brigades," with Fox News reporter Steve Centanni and cameraman Olaf Wiig, who were kidnapped August 14 from their TV van near the Palestinian security services headquarters in Gaza City. The group demands release of "Muslim prisoners" (supposedly) held by the the U.S within the next 72 hours. The two appear to be in good physical condition on the video and talk on the video.

Fox News has a transcript of the terrorists' statement released with the video, with the following demand: "In exchange for the release of the Muslim prisoners, males and females in the prisons of America, with our prisoners. Release our prisoners and we will do the same. This applies to all without exception. And every Muslim is more cherished and more generous that a 1,000 Bushes. But this is a tradeoff of equals. We will grant you 72 hours, that starts as of noon today during which you can look into this and if you carry out our condition we will carry out our promise, or else wait and we will wait with you and it will be in God's hands."

Fox News also has transcripts of the statement by Steve Centanni, and the statement by Olaf Wiig. CNN has a 1:33 clip of the prisoners' plea for help.

Picture from new video released by Ramattan agency:

Foreign Affairs: "The Real Online Terrorist Threat"

By Evan Kohlmann

I have published a piece in the September/October edition of Foreign Affairs titled "The Real Online Terrorist Threat" analyzing the increasingly complex world of modern cyberterrorism. The article includes new revelations concerning a number of case studies, including that of Irhaby007 (a.k.a. London resident Younis Tsouli).

An opening excerpt from the Foreign Affairs website:
"The United States is gradually losing the online war against terrorists. Rather than aggressively pursuing its enemies, the U.S. government has adopted a largely defensive strategy, the centerpiece of which is an electronic Maginot Line that supposedly protects critical infrastructure (for example, the computer systems run by agencies such as the Department of Defense and the Federal Aviation Administration) against online attacks. In the meantime, terrorists and their sympathizers, unhindered by bureaucratic inertia and unchallenged by Western governments, have reorganized their operations to take advantage of the Internet's more prosaic properties."

"The U.S. government is mishandling the growing threat because it misunderstands terrorists. For more than a decade, a host of pundits and supposed experts have traded in doom-and-gloom predictions that cyberterrorists would wreak havoc on the Internet -- or, worse, use computer networks to do damage in the offline world (for instance, by hijacking systems that control the water and power utilities of major metropolitan areas). Such warnings were bolstered by the occasional acts of terrorist groups such as the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has staged dramatic but ineffectual cyberattacks, such as its hacking into the Indian army's Web site in 2000. Although such incidents had only symbolic impact, they scared technophobic Western policymakers. Fearful of a digital Pearl Harbor, governments embarked on a frantic campaign aimed at "locking doors." As the former White House counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke explained, Washington's strategy has been simple: keep terrorists from breaching sensitive government networks."

"In truth, although catastrophic computer attacks are not entirely inconceivable, the prospect that militants will be able to execute them anytime soon has been overblown. Fears of such science-fiction scenarios, moreover, have led policymakers to overlook the fact that terrorists currently use the Internet as a cheap and efficient way of communicating and organizing. These militants are now dedicated to waging an innovative, low-intensity military campaign against the United States. Jihadists are typically organized in small, widely dispersed units and coordinate their activities online, obviating the need for a central command. Al Qaeda and similar groups rely on the Internet to contact potential recruits and donors, sway public opinion, instruct would-be terrorists, pool tactics and knowledge, and organize attacks. The RAND Corporation's David Ronfeldt and John Arquilla have called this phenomenon "netwar," which they define as a form of conflict marked by the use of "network forms of organization and related doctrines, strategies, and technologies." In many ways, such groups use the Internet in the same way that peaceful political organizations do; what makes terrorists' activity threatening is their intent."

"To counter terrorists, the U.S. government must learn how to monitor their activity online, in the same way that it keeps tabs on terrorists in the real world. Doing so will require a realignment of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, which lag behind terrorist organizations in adopting information technologies. At present, unfortunately, senior counterterrorism officials refuse even to pay lip service to the need for such reforms. That must change -- and fast..."

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Fuel for Radicalism?

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

The Arab News published an article this week called “Irresponsible Statements Fueling Radicalism: WAMY" A headline that could easily be a parody in The Onion or on Saturday Night Live.
“In an interview with Arab News, [Saleh] Al-Wohaibi [Secretary General of WAMY] described Bush’s remarks [“Islamic fascists”] as being unhelpful and said they were instrumental in creating problems for a pan-Islamic organization such as WAMY, which is trying to fight extremism among the youth. ‘They make our task difficult,’ he said”

This is the same WAMY that published and distributed a book titled, Islamic Camps: Objectives, Program Outlines, Preparatory Steps, as a guide for other Muslim groups planning camps. The book lists steps for starting a camp, creating a program, inviting participants, establishing goals, and other technical advice. It also includes sample schedules, a list of sports and activities, lectures, meals and free time. In the index, Islamic Camps suggests chants such as:

“Hail! Hail! O Sacrificing Soldiers! / To Us! To Us! So we may defend the flag / on this Day of Jihad, are you miserly with your blood?!…Come! So we may revive the times the times of our predecessors!”

Yet in a previous interview in the Arab News Saleh Al-Wohaibi lamented that “WAMY and other charitable organizations suffered a loss of image as they were linked to terrorism by the Western, more specifically, the American media.” He complained that WAMY summer camps will suffer due to loss in revenue and told the Arab News that “the best way to wean youth away from undesirable activities was to install sound values based on Islamic teachings. According to al-Wohaibi, “That’s what the summer camps were about.”

WAMY does not by any means limit its teachings to summer camps. A WAMY booklet that is allegedly circulating in the US prison system is called The Difference Between The Shi'ites and the Majority of Muslim Scholars. This booklet describes Shiism as having been formed as a result of “various tribalist, racist and Jewish movements” and states that “the claim that Ali should have been the first caliph started mainly as a political claim and was designed to create discord among Muslims by agitating tribal and racial differences and hostilities.”

It is no surprise that the New York prison system, as reported by Paul Barrett in a February 2003 Wall Street Journal article, How a Muslim Chaplain Spread Extremism to an Inmate Flock, “has seen a rash of complaints from inmates who adhere to the minority Shiite sect of Islam” due to actions of some Sunni prison chaplains.

While it can be reasonably argued that the term islamofacist is shallow and without nuance but its usage, while perhaps unfortunate, does not negate the fact that WAMY and its affiliated dawah organizations need to take responsibility for fueling extremism among youth. As they are quick to point out: words matter.

These are the role models and teachers for young Muslims and they distribute their materials in many languages to countries that span the globe. If they don’t comprehend that decades of such publications are having an adverse affect on those that read it in prison or that their rhetoric in summer camp created a good portion of the extremism they decry, they are either not in touch with reality or are irreversibly lost in their divisive interpretations of religion.

Even their lobbyists and advisors in Washington, DC, who according to Wohaibi: “are doing a good job in trying to reach out to government officials, congressmen and the media as part of our effort to explain our activities and remove misconceptions” can’t erase the damage done by WAMY’s rhetoric and only serves to confirm WAMY’s agenda by representing themselves with the Muslim World League (MWL), Al-Haramain and the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) (which just had two branches designated for “facilitating fundraising for al Qaida and affiliated terrorist groups.” )

As recently as July 2005, Stuart Levey, the U.S. Treasury’s Under Secretary for Terrorism & Financial Crimes, noted that “Saudi Arabian charities, particularly the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO), the World Association [sic] of Muslim Youth (WAMY), and the Muslim World League (MWL) continue to cause us concern." Perhaps if Wohaibi and company are genuinely concerned about the state of radicalism today among youth, they can clean up their act and then have room to enter a real and meaningful debate on the use of hot button words and phrases.

It is difficult to imagine a change anytime soon. According to a 2004 New York Times article “’Saying that the Jews and the Christians are infidels is part of our religious dogma,’ said Saleh S. al-Wohaibi, the American-educated secretary general of the World Assembly of Muslim Youth. Any changes in the way it is taught should be decided by Saudis, he said, adding, “It doesn't mean we try to incite hatred against others, but my religion has its own principles that should not be violated or changed.” It is very fortunate Wohaibi and WAMY do not speak for all of his religion.

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New Movie Opens Window Into Terrorists' Suicidal Culture

By Andrew Cochran

Last year, I posted an interview with Pierre Rehov, a French filmmaker who has filmed numerous documentaries on the terrorists in the Palestinian areas, in part through interviews with them and their families. At that time, he was preparing his seventh film, "Suicide Killers," about the culture and psychopathology behind Palestinian suicide bombers. The film will open this week in theaters in New York City and Los Angeles, and I wish Mr. Rehov and his crew a successful opening and run. Unlike "Paradise Now," which received plaudits from media critics but came dangerously close to legitimizing suicide killers, Mr. Rehov recognizes the evil behind the suicidal mindset and condemns it. You can see the trailer from "Suicide Killers" and links to Mr. Rehov's other films at his website.

More than ever, with the London liquid terrorism plot fresh in the news, we need to understand and counter the twisted means by which Islamist extremists brainwash young Muslims into undertaking suicide. "Suicide Killers" is an outstanding and important clinical examination of that culture. Here is a segment from my interview with Pierre Rehov in July 2005, after the London bombings, with his disturbing prediction:

Are these men traveling outside their native areas in large numbers? Based on your research, would you predict that we are beginning to see a new wave of suicide bombings outside the Middle East?

Every successful terror attack is considered a victory by the radical Islamists. Everywhere Islam is expands there is regional conflict. Right now, their are thousands of candidates for martyrdom lining up in training camps in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Inside Europe, hundreds of illegal mosques are preparing the next step of brain washing to lost young men who cannot find a satisfying identity in the Occidental world. Israel is much more prepared for this than the rest of the world will ever be. Yes, there will be more suicide killings in Europe and the U.S. Sadly, this is only the beginning.

Here are two photos from the film:

The Ongoing Battle for Baghdad

By Bill Roggio

Phase 2 of Operation Together Forward is in its early stages. Click map to view.

The city of Baghdad, as well as Baghdad Province has become the epicenter of violence in Iraq. In a recent press briefing, Major General Bill Caldwell stated an estimated eighty percent of the violence in Iraq is occurring in Baghdad province.

The Iraqi government must establish some semblance of control over the city. Baghdad is the political center of Iraq, as well as the focal point for the foreign media, which plays a large roll in influencing international opinion on Iraq. The legitimacy of the Iraqi government is at stake, as is the potential for support of America at risk. Prime Minister Maliki's reconciliation program, which has attracted interest from many Sunni insurgent groups, including two large factions, is also in jeopardy. The longer the sectarian violence goes uncontrolled, the greater the chance for the Sunni insurgent groups to give up on the program.

Baghdad has been difficult to secure for a variety of reasons. It is difficult to fight all-out counterinsurgency in a dense urban area such as Baghdad, a city with over six million residents. The potential for high civilian casualties along with the wholesale destruction of neighborhoods and civilian infrastructure would be politically untenable for both the Maliki government and the Bush administration.

To combat the insurgency, and sectarian and criminal violence in Baghdad, the Iraqi government and Coalition announced Operation Together Forward. USA Today provides a simplified breakdown of the operation. "The offensive is planned in stages and is designed to avoid an all-out attack. In the first phase, launched July 9, Iraqi security forces positioned checkpoints throughout the city. In the second phase, launched last week, Iraqi forces supported by U.S. troops began isolating and clearing parts of the city block by block. Iraqi security forces will remain to provide security once areas are cleared. When areas are stable, the government will bring economic assistance into blighted neighborhoods." This strategy is essentially what the Marines call the "3 Block War."

Map of Baghdad and location of the four worst neighborhoods. Click map to view.

While many pundits have dismissed the operation as a failure as it did not secure the city within weeks of launch, the Coalition appears to have a longer time line to secure Baghdad measured in months, not weeks. As USA Today reports, the second phase of the operation began in the second week of August.

Operation Together Forward is focusing on four of the most violent neighborhoods of Baghdad: Doura, Mansour, Shula and Azamiyah. These are neighborhoods where the sectarian violence has been at its worst. Coalition forces have begun operations in Doura and Ameriya. In both cases, the neighborhoods were cordoned off, and each building was searched. "Kilometer after kilometer of barriers emplaced, building what some may call the semblance of a gated community, affording them greater security with ingress and egress routes established and manned by Iraqi security forces with coalition forces in support," as the Multinational Forces - Iraq press release describes the operation in Doura.

A similar strategy of cordon, search, secure and rebuild was successfully executed in Tal Afar, and is currently being executed in the Sunni insurgent stronghold city of Ramadi. Tal Afar, with populations of 170,000 was secured in less than a month, while Ramadi, with a population of 400,000 is still up for grabs.

Securing Baghdad has its own unique problems other than the size and scale of the operation, as well as the number of forces needed. Baghdad is a multi-ethnic city, with large Shia and Sunni populations. Sadr's militia, the Mahdi Army, is playing a large role in the sectarian violence, as is its sponsor Iran. Sadr's militia has been repeatedly been the target of Iraqi and Coalition operations. And the Shiite dominated police force is not trusted by the Iraqi public. They have been accused of corruption and complicity in the sectarian violence. In some cases, the police stand by as Sadr's militias rampage, and in other instances have actively participated in the murders. The Iraqi police must be reigned in if Baghdad is to be secured.

The strategy isolating neighborhoods from the insurgents and militias and restoring services has worked elsewhere in Iraq, and the question is can it succeed in a large city such as Baghdad. The insurgents, militias and criminals have the advantage of melting away during the major security operations, and infiltrating back in after the clearing operation ends as the entire city cannot be secured at once. This will be a challenge for the security forces left behind to police the neighborhoods, and it is vital the security force is vetted and supervised by Coalition teams and the Iraqi Army.

Time is working against the Iraqi government as they risk losing the gains made in forwarding reconciliation after the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Every effort should be made to push every last available security asset into Baghdad lest the hard work in the provinces of the past two years be negated by a failure to secure Baghdad.

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Official Press Releases on London Airline Bomb Plot Charges

By Evan Kohlmann

In addition to a statement given by Susan Hemming, the head of the U.K.'s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) Counterterrorism Unit, CPS has also released details on those charged today in relation to an Al-Qaida-linked terrorist plot aimed at detonating improvised explosive devices onboard aircraft headed to the U.S.

Separately, the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) has released the full text of an accompanying statement today from Deputy Commissioner Peter Clarke of the MPS Anti-Terrorist Branch regarding the failed airline bomb plot.

Islamists Have a Plan, We do Not

By Douglas Farah

Europe has become the focal point for recruitment and expansion for several strands of Islamist thought and activity, from the Muslim Brotherhood to salafists fighting in Iraq and recruiting for Afghanistan. There is some tension between and among these groups, but what these groups have in common is a clear sense of what they are doing and why.

Perhaps the most interesting move, and one with long-term implications, is the (largely successful) efforts by these groups to buy large amounts of real estate, territory that effectively becomes "Muslim" land once it is in the hands of Islamist groups. Some groups are signing agreements to guarantee that they will only sell the land to other Muslims.

The Brotherhood, particularly, is active in investments in properties and businesses across Europe, laying the groundwork for the future network that will be able to react rapidly and with great flexibility in case of another attempted crackdown on the group's financial structure. My full blog is here.

Possible North Korean Nuclear Test Linked to Iranian Deadline?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

When news broke Friday that North Korea may be preparing for an underground detonation of a nuclear device, the question that immediately arose in my mind was whether this was linked to Iran's self-imposed Aug. 22 deadline for providing a final answer about its nuclear development. Certainly the two countries have cooperated in the past. For example, I have previously blogged about Iran's purchase of missiles from North Korea.

It is entirely conceivable that these two items are unrelated. It's possible that North Korea isn't planning for an underground test at all: South Korean unification minister Lee Jong Seok has said that he hasn't "heard of a confirmation of concrete evidence that North Korea is preparing a nuclear test." But when this news broke about North Korea, I certainly hope that the thought of a possible connection to Iran's Aug. 22 deadline crossed the minds of our intelligence analysts, among others.