New Video Coming From Ayman al-Zawahiri and American Al Qaeda (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Rita Katz's SITE Institute and Laura Mansfield, each of whom we rely upon for reliable information on upcoming Al Qaeda videos, have seen an announcement by Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media arm of a forthcoming new video. The video is titled, "“Invitation to Islam” and includes Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri and a man who appears to be "Azzam the American," a.k.a. Adam Gadahn. The banner announcing the video is posted on Laura's site. Al-Zawahiri's last video was released in early August.

Counterterrorism Blog experts have posted on "Azzam the American":

Evan Kohlmann, "MSNBC: 'American greases al-Qaida media machine'" and "American Al-Qaida Operative Surfaces Again in Bin Laden Video Release"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, "New al-Qaeda Tape Continues Appeasement Theme"

Hizballah Rearmament Has Begun

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In summarizing winners and losers of the Israel-Hizballah conflict, my colleague Bill Roggio wrote the following in declaring Hizballah a winner:

While the Israeli military may have dealt Hezbollah a tactical defeat generally in southern Lebanon, killed a significant number of Hezbollah soldiers, degraded Hezbollah's long range rocket supplies and was able to push to the Litani at the end of the campaign, Hezbollah's military and political organization survived to fight another day. The resupply of medium and long range rockets from the Iranian and Syrian backers will begin immediately, and the Syrian supply lines into the Bekaa valley remain wide open. . . . Hezbollah will now direct the full efforts of its aid organizations to rebuild the damaged infrastructure and provide for those Lebanese in need. The combination of the military victory along with the ability to care for the Lebanese in ways the State cannot will only increase their stature and support.

I agreed with this assessment at the time. And despite Hassan Nasrallah's protestation that he regrets the conflict with Israel, I believe that events are proving Bill's assessment correct -- as a new Stratfor analysis on Hizballah's rearmament indicates.

TAK Terror Group Carries Out a Series of Bombings in Turkey

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Aftermath of the Antalya bombing.

Over the past few days, Turkey has been hit by a string of bombings. On Sunday night and Monday morning, four separate blasts injured at least twenty people. The first blast, which came around 11:00 p.m. Sunday in the garden of an Istanbul school, wounded at least six. Then, just after midnight, the Aegean Sea resort town of Marmaris experienced three blasts. According to the Turkish Daily News, the first of these bombs "ripped through a shuttle bus ferrying tourists along one of the resort's main streets" after being placed under one of its seats. Subsequently, two other bombs stashed in garbage bins exploded, causing no injuries, "though some reports suggested those had not detonated properly."

Later on Monday, a bomb exploded in the coastal resort city of Antalya. Two people were killed in the explosion, and a third died later in the hospital. And another blast in the port city of Mersin injured a twenty-year-old woman.

Although the PKK has been the main perpetrator of recent attacks against Turkey, these blasts have been claimed by another group, the Teyrbazen Azadiya Kurdistan (TAK), also known as the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks or Kurdistan Freedom Falcons. This group, which first appeared in 2004, is shrouded in secrecy -- as shown by the Terrorism Knowledge Base's discussion of the group. For one thing, the group's origin, composition and affiliations are the subject of debate:

Some analysts believe that the group is either a small splinter of or an alias for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the most active Kurdish militant group. Others, however, suggest that the group may be totally independent of the PKK, or only loosely connected to it. PKK leaders deny having any control over the TAK.

Moreover, the TAK's precise goals are unclear. Although it is clearly part of the wider Kurdish nationalist movement, it's unclear if the TAK seeks an independent Kurdish state or if its goals are more limited in scope (or if it solely focused on revenge for Turkish misdeeds).

While the TAK's earliest attacks were small and non-lethal "warning actions" in public places, it has become increasingly violent since then. It claimed responsibility for a summer 2005 explosion in the coastal resort town of Cesme that injured at least twenty people, as well as another attack less than a week later that killed five people in another seaside town. Bombings against tourist targets are now TAK's signature: the tourist industry is a strategic target becuase of its economic importance. According to the Terrorism Knowledge Base, "The TAK claims to have no desire to kill foreigners, only that it wishes to cut off a key source of revenue for the Turkish government."

The recent rash of bombings will likely make investigation of the TAK a top priority for Turkish intelligence. Given the attention Turkey has devoted to the PKK lately (see my blog entries here and here, for example), one focus of this investigation will likely be the TAK/PKK relationship. If Turkey comes to believe that there is a strong connection between the two groups, that will almost certainly lead to an escalation of Turkish military activities in northern Iraq.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Steven Emerson: Hezbollah Apologist Wins "Human Relations" Award... in the U.S. (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Steven Emerson appeared tonight on Fox News Channel's "Hannity & Colmes" to discuss his article on "The New Republic Online" website, "Prize Fighter - A Hezbollah Apologist Wins an Award for Tolerance." In the article, Steve discloses the radical anti-American and anti-Israeli statements of Maher Hathout, president of the Islamic Center of Southern California and a senior adviser to the Muslim Public Affairs Council. Despite his empathy for terrorists, Hathout will receive an award for "oustanding human relations work" in Los Angeles in October. "The New Republic Online" has generously allowed us to reprint the complete article here (Word file). An excerpt:

In October 2000, Maher Hathout attended a rally in Lafayette Park across from the White House. His speech was captured on video for posterity by the Investigative Project on Terrorism. He told the assembled crowd that he was not surprised by what he called the "atrocities committed by the apartheid brutal state of Israel." After all, he reasoned, "butchers do what butchers do, and ... what is expected from a racist apartheid [state] is what is happening now."

Fast forward six years. The Los Angeles County Commission on Human Relations announced last Tuesday that Hathout, president of the Islamic Center of Southern California and a senior adviser to the Muslim Public Affairs Council (mpac), would receive its prestigious John Allen Buggs Award in luncheon ceremonies on October 5. The award is given annually for what the commission describes as "outstanding human relations work."

A man who called Israel a nation of butchers (he didn't stop there; he has also accused the United States of committing state terrorism) is about to be honored with a major award for effective practices in human relations work. Is this any different than giving, say, David Duke an award for healing racial relations?

President Bush, Sudan and Paul Salopeck

By Douglas Farah

President Bush made the unusual, and breathtakingly unwise, offer to meet with Lt. Gen. Omar Hassan al-Bashir, Sudan's bloody dictator, "on the side" in New York during the general's UN visit later in September. This, after al-Bashir, responsible for the genocide in Darfur, the blocking of peacekeeping forces despite agreeing to let them in, deliberately and throughly humiliated Bush's personal envoy to Sudan, as described in painful detail in The Washington Post.

How can this be? The regime sponsors the janjaweed, maintains terrorist connections with Islamist groups, leaves an envoy cooling her heels for three days (because the president was "busy") and imprisons Paul Salopek, one of the best and most respected foreign correspondents in the business, on bogus charges of espionage. (If you want to read about who my friend Paul Salopek really is, see this great piece in the Seattle Time).

The price for all this? An offer of a private visit with the president in New York. My full blog is here.

Counterterrorism Blog Posts on Tariq Ramadan

By Andrew Cochran

Doug Farah's post below discusses yet another attempt by Tariq Ramadan to enter the country, with the help of his American allies (including those in the U.S. government). We've addressed him and the publicly available evidence, which supports denial of entry, in previous posts. Key Members of Congress have acted quietly in the past to prevent his entry, with the assistance of several Contributing Experts, and I anticipate the Congressmen will do so again.

Steven Emerson's "Tariq Ramadan: The Case of the Grand Deception," posted April 1, 2005, is the most direct and detailed post on the subject. One paragraph:

In several interviews given to various European publications over the last few years, Mr. Ramadan has repeatedly provided a justification for terrorist acts against US allies such as Israel and Russia and, more recently, against the US itself. Asked by the Italian magazine Panorama if the killing of civilians is right, Mr. Ramadan unambiguously responded that "In Palestine, Iraq, Chechnya, there is a situation of oppression, repression and dictatorship. It is legitimate for Muslims to resist fascism that kills the innocent." When asked if car bombing against US forces in Iraq were legitimate, Professor Ramadan responded that "Iraq was colonized by the Americans. The resistance against the army is just."

Olivier Guitta, "Londonistan is alive and kicking"

Lorenzo Vidino, "State Department’s flirting with the Muslim Brotherhood"

Bill West, "Keeping out Terror Inciters"

Steven Emerson, "Our New Reports on Terrorist Threats to Italy and the Muslim Brotherhood in France"

Two Visitors Who Should Not be Let In

By Douglas Farah

There is disturbing news on several fronts regarding how the administration is handling the competing pressures as it seeks to promote democracy and fight Islamist extemism at the same time. The first is a state visit by the president of Kazakhstan. The second is the possible visit of the new leading light of the Muslim Brotherhood, Tariq Ramadan, something of a rock star in European Muslim communities but still a radical Islamist who poses as a moderate.

President Bush's decision, as outlined in the Washington Post is to not only invite Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev for a state visit but to have him to Camp David. Here we have one of the most corrupt agents of the former Soviet Union, accused of stealing tens of millions of dollars while jailing opponents and stifling all manner of civil liberties, now a treated as a great friend.

It is important that Nazabayev helped secure an atomic arsenal, no doubt. But is he really the type of leader one wants to legitimize as a "good friend" when he represents nothing the U.S. should stand for? Like Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, without his oil Nazarbayev would be just one more odious dictator that one would ignore, or at least certainly not fete at the president's private residence. The fact that Kazakhstan is now a base of operations for Viktor Bout, who is arming radical the radical Islamist regime in Somalia, also seems to be forgotten. My full blog is here.

ON THE AXIS OF JIHADISM

By Walid Phares

By Walid Phares and Behrooz Bahbudi

The Washington Post

Because for 11 years years, the American public wasn’t informed about the threat that lead to September 11 and because the classrooms and newsrooms of the United States were not educated enough about the global threat of “Jihadism,” we feel it is incumbent on individual citizens to educate themselves about this danger and mobilize to prevent a Future Jihad looming around the world and at home. It is important that American citizens understand who the “Jihadists” are, what they want to achieve, and how they are proceeding. Without this knowledge, the American public will be unable to be part of the political debate about national security and the War on Terror. And if deprived from the support of an informed public, the US Government, now and in the future, cannot sustain difficult decisions pertaining to the defeat of the Terrorist enemy.

Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

The Indonesian police announced a new twist in the ongoing investigation into the Bali II knapsack bombings that took place last October. (On 1 October 2005, three Indonesian suicide bombers set off knapsacks at three restaurants on the island resort of Bali.) Early on, it was assumed that Jemaah Islamiyah fugitives Noordin Top and Azhari Husein had been the masterminds behind these attacks, and in fact this proved to be the case.

Last week, however, it was learned that jailed JI militant Imam Samudra, who is on death row for the October 2002 Bali bombings, had also been involved in planning the October 2005 strike. Apparently, as-yet unidentified persons had smuggled a laptop into Samudra's Bali jail cell, enabling him to make internet contact with JI members on the outside, including some apparently involved in the Bali II planning.

The extent of Samudra's internet connections are still being investigated, but it is believed that he participated in an Indonesian-language chatroom, and also had contact with an Indonesian militant website called anshor.net. Exactly what assistance or guidance he provided for the Bali II bombers is not yet known.

Also unknown is how he was able to obtain a laptop. Indonesian prisons are notorious for the types of goods and services that can be smuggled inside; even by these standards, however, it is shocking that such a high-profile terrorist could gain access to a computer connected to the internet.

Cynics might point out that this story comes at an opportune time for the government. Samudra was supposed to be executed in August, though a recent appeal had delayed his visit to a firing squad. Now that he is being investigated for the smuggled laptop, the date can be pushed back even farther. The government is loathe to execute Samudra and two other Bali bombers because they fear political blowback from Islamic conservatives.

Treasury Department Designates Islamic Resistance Support Organization (IRSO), Key Hizballah Fundraiser

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury Department has announced the designation of the Islamic Resistance Support Organization (IRSO), a key Hizballah fundraising organization, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. I quote from the press release:

"While some terrorist-supporting charities try to obscure their support for violence, IRSO makes no attempt to hide its true colors. IRSO's fundraising materials present donors with the option of sending funds to equip Hizballah fighters or to purchase rockets that Hizballah uses to target civilian populations," said Stuart Levey, Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) "IRSO works to inflict suffering rather than alleviate it."

Hizballah uses IRSO to solicit donations in support of its terrorist activities. Specifically, IRSO solicits funds for Hizballah through advertisements broadcast on Hizballah's al-Manar television station. IRSO has identified itself to prospective donors as one and the same as Hizballah.

Solicitation materials distributed by IRSO inform prospective donors that funds will be used to purchase sophisticated weapons and conduct operations. Indeed, donors can choose from a series of projects to contribute to, including, supporting and equipping fighters and purchasing rockets and ammunition.

IRSO Arabic Donor Form and IRSO English Donor Form

Coming Soon: Investigation of Lebanese Terrorist Recruitment in Europe

By Andrew Cochran

Two Contributing Experts are collaborating on a special investigation of terrorist recruitment in Europe by Lebanese-based militants. They will post their findings within a few days.

Hezbollah's propaganda exposed during Annan's visit (updated 8/29 with pictures)

By CTB Special Correspondent

Editor's Note: Karim is a special correspondent for the Counterterrorism Blog (he posted on July 24) and is currently in Lebanon. UPDATE 8/29: Pictures from the demonstration added below.

Hezbollah's staged mini-demonstration in the southern suburb of Beirut has been exposed by unauthorized media footage. (Editor's Note added 8/29: I have verified that the footage was taken by a well known and respected media source, but we won't reveal the name for fear of damaging its contacts in Lebanon.) During a visit to the Hezbollah former "security square," destroyed during the war with Israel, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was greeted by a prepared crowd of Hezbollah militants. Accompanied by Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora, Dr. Annan was escorted by Lebanese Army security, apparently very friendly with Hezbollah Department of Security. The Lebanese Army officers and Hezbollah were seen smiling at each other and coordinating the staged demonstration. A camera linked to an international media agency was broadcasting live from behind the Hezbollah's security lines. It captured the details of the "show." A group of women and girls, in traditional Muslim dresses and scarves were gathered by Hezbollah bearded security some 15 minutes before the motorcade arrives. The gathering was at about 30 feet away from where Annan's car was supposed to stop. This indicates that the motorcade security and the Hezbollah operatives knew ahead of time where the spot would be and had the women standing and waiting. Posters of Hassan Nasrallah were then distributed to the women. The camera showed a group of bearded men standing few meters behind the first line of women as a "second brigade." Then the camera showed the group of women tightening their positioning while few men with hats and "talkies" positioned themselves behind the women and started shouting orders: "Clap when Annan gets out of the car," they screamed to the women. The latter complied with "passion," raising the posters of Nasrallah. "Boo when Seniora appears," the Hezbollah's operators shouted. A huge boo was produced, not only by the women, but also by the men standing behind them.

What is Russia's Real Game?

By Douglas Farah

In an increasingly confused world, it has become apparent that Russia, for all its talk, is consistently positioning itself against the interests of the United States, Europe-and often on the side of Islamist radicals.

It is not just true in the U.N. Security Council with Iran, where, along with China, Russia is protecting an important client despite what such support means.

It is also true in Lebanon (directly and through Iran), the republic of Georgia and Somalia, where Russian weapons merchants, including but not limited to Viktor Bout, are supplying large amounts of weapons to fuel wars that will have a devastating impact on entire regions. In each case the beneficiary is going to be enemies of development, democracy and human rights. The beneficiaries will be radical Islamists.

President Bush famously warned that in the war on terrorism, you are with us or against us. The Russians, it seems, like the Pakistanis, Saudis and many others, are both. Russia is a particularly troubling case because of the quantitiy and quality of weapons its possesses, as well as the nuclear arsenal at least nominally under its control. My full blog is here.

Daily Standard: The New Taliban

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Several times on this blog I have discussed the Islamic Courts Union's consolidation of power (see, for example, my August 14 and August 17 analysis). Today my colleague Kyle Dabruzzi and I have a new article posted at the Daily Standard, entitled "The New Taliban," that examines the ICU's gains in greater detail. An excerpt:

AMERICANS AND OTHER WESTERNERS FREQUENTLY have trouble comprehending why they should care about events occurring half a world away in Africa. One reason we should care is that the ICU's expansion may escalate into interstate warfare.

Ethiopia views the Islamic militia's rise as a matter of great concern, and has expressed its solidarity with Somalia's transitional government. Ethiopian information minister Berhan Hailu has said, "We will use all means at our disposal to crush the Islamist group if they attempt to attack Baidoa."

Ethiopian troops have reportedly been in Somalia since late July. Just as the Ethiopian government has threatened to use military force against the ICU, the ICU has vowed to attack Ethiopian soldiers in Somali territory. Thus far there haven't been any clashes, but both sides are clearly ready to fight. Each seems to be waiting for the other to strike first.

AND THERE IS AN EVEN MORE PRESSING REASON why Westerners should care about the ICU's rise: the striking similarity between its ascendance in Somalia and that of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

One similarity is that as the ICU has gained power, Somalis have welcomed its rule because it is seen as a force for stability. Rival warlords have ruled Somalia since the fall of president Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. According to a Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder, "[t]he warlords' militias were notorious for indiscriminate violence: Women and girls were often raped and locals could not move about the city without fear of being killed. Since the ICU took control, experts say there are noticeably fewer guns on the streets, and people move freely throughout the city without fear of attack."

Read the whole article here.

Storming of Romanian Oil Rig Continues Iran's Provocative Actions

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Iran seized a Romanian oil rig off Kish Island.

On August 22, a few hours before Iran delivered its response to the UN about its nuclear program, an Iranian warship fired on a Romanian oil rig and seized it. The New York Sun reports:

An Iranian naval vessel fired on the rig, named Orizont, owned by Grup Servicii Petroliere in Iran's offshore Salman field and took control of its radio room at about 7 a.m. local time, Grup's representative in the United Arab Emirates, Lulu Tabanesku, said in a phone interview from Dubai yesterday. "The Iranians fired at the rig's crane with machine guns," Mr. Tabanesku said. "They are in control now, and we can't contact the rig." The Romanian company has 26 workers on the platform, he said.

Although the Romanians are working to defuse the situation and have reportedly agreed that the incident was "of a commercial nature," there is much more to the seizure than that. Iran has engaged in a number of provocative moves lately, and this incident must be seen as part of a broader picture.

Iran has been Hizballah's major sponsor for decades, and its fingerprints were all over the flare-up in Lebanon between Hizballah and Israel. Over this past weekend, Iran kicked off a masive five-week military exercise designed to showcase its capabilities. It has been reported that "[a]ssault and transport helicopters, parachutists, electronic war units and special forces are participating in the initial manoeuvre." And a fourth provocative action occurred Monday, when Iran denied IAEA inspectors access to an underground facility at Natanz designed to shelter its uranium enrichment program from attack. This comes on top of other signs of Iranian defiance over its nuclear program, including denying entry visas to two IAEA inspectors and issuing several inspectors single-entry visas rather than the customary multiple-entry visas.

One clear purpose behind Iran's seizure of the Romanian rig was a show of force. Heinrich Matthee, Iran analyst for London's Control Risk Group, has noted that storming the rig "sends a message that Iran can project its power and could interfere in oil production." But there is also a gamesmanship aspect to Iran's actions. With each defiant move that Iran has made, Western countries have done little or nothing to push back. As Iran is not held accountable for such actions as backing Hizballah in its war against Israel and denying IAEA inspectors access to key nuclear sites, it comes to believe -- with reason -- that it will have more leeway in the way it operates in the future. If there is no real repercussion to Iran's seizure of the Romanian rig, then Iran will have further expanded the boundaries for its future actions.

Western countries have no apparent strategy for dealing with Iran at this point, but the question of how to begin pushing back in response to these provocative actions is a critical one.

The Power of Non-State Actors in Middle East Grows

By Douglas Farah

One of the great successes of the Islamists, particularly the Shi'ites, is the ability to create separate states within weak and failing states. The prime examples are Hezbollah and, as the Washington Post chronicles today, Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq.

One could argue that there are groups within the Iranian intelligence and security apparatus that also form non-state groups. The alliance of these elements, with no formal power, to ally in transnational, borderless associations and alliances, is what poses one of the largest threats to the Middle East and beyond.

The weakness of the states that allow these groups to flourish gives these groups, along with Hamas and other Islamist and non-Islamist organizations, the priceless ability to provide social services, remedy injustice and corruption and generally make people's lives better on a measureable level.

At the same time, the states in which they reside do not have the strength to drive them out or confront them. Hezbollah was able to launch a war the state of Lebanon probably did not want and certainly could not win.

One of the most fascinating elements of the al Sadr piece was the recognition in the group that attacking the U.S. forces would be counterproductive. My full blog is here.

Arrest of 12 Passengers on Netherlands-India Flight Merits Further Investigation

By Walid Phares

Twelve passengers on a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Mumbai, India were arrested today after passengers and crew noticed suspicious behavior over Germany, with the plane escorted by Dutch F-16s. Why is this important and why should it be investigated further?

1. All twelve were using their cell phones after the plane took off. You never see an entire group of passengers engage in such flagrantly illegal behavior. Were they talking with each other and with others at their destination?

2. They were flying out of Amsterdam, and the Netherlands is one of the centers of Islamist extremism in Europe. See this post by my colleague Lorenzo Vidino last October, and recall the murder of Theo van Gogh there.

3. They were flying to Mumbai (Bombay), India, scene of a deadly series of train bombings on July 11. I posted on that event here on July 12, and my CT Blog colleagues posted about it also.

Maybe it will turn out to be nothing, but this event merits further investigation.

Islamic Courts Consolidates Power in Somalia

By Bill Roggio

Map of Somalia, recent gains by the Islamic Courts marked in red. Click map to view.

Somalia continues the slide into the darkness of a radical Islamist state. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the al-Qaeda linked leader of the Islamic Courts is consolidating power in Somalia by taking control of vital lines of communications, organizing the army of the Islamic Courts, and instituting shariah law throughout the areas it controls.

As Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has noted, the Islamic Courts have taken control of the port cities of Harardhere, Eldher and Hoyobo, as well as Beletuein on the border with Ethiopia. The flights of arms shipments from Kazakistan reported by Douglas Farah continue to fly into Mogadishu's airport to this day.

The Islamic Courts, using money funneled from the Arabian peninsula, is arming its fighters with new weapons, and sending its fighters to receive professional training. "This is the beginning, but thousands of other gunmen will be trained. You are the ones who will disarm civilians, restore law and order and help enforce Sharia law," Aweys said to a group of 600 fighters at the Hilweyne military camp. As the army of the Islamic Courts ramps up, soldiers of the Transitional Federal Government (TGF) continue to defect. Over 100 TGF fighters stationed near Baidoa have defected to the Islamic Courts, and 500 total have defected since the Islamic Courts grabbed power in July.

16 of 17 known locations of terror training camps. Map is from 2002. Click map to view.

The Islamic Courts is further consolidating power by instituting a program to disarm Somalis not affiliated with the Islamists. They are disarming any potential rivals. The imposition of strict shariah law continues. Three Somalis caught in possession of marijuana were publicly whipped in Mogadishu. The Islamic Courts are organizing "a national forum to chart the lawless country's future," further eroding the power of the Transitional Federal Government. A Hezbollah-styled aid program is being set up to gain the loyalty of the Somalis.

The Ethiopian government is looking upon the rise of the Islamic Courts in Somalia with dismay, and continues to pour troops into the country. Ethiopian troops started reinforcing the failing Transitional Federal Government in Baidoa at the beginning of July, and this effort continues. Over 300 heavily armed Ethiopian troops have passed through the border town of Awdiinle and are reported to be heading to Baidoa. The Guardian reports Ethiopian "troops entered the town of Galkayo, driving seven pickup trucks mounted with machine guns and six trucks loaded with boxes." The Ethiopian government denies any incursions into Somalia, but Ethiopian forces have been in and around Baidoa for two months now.

Both the Ethiopians and the Islamic Courts appear to be waiting for the other to make the first move and spark the war. The Islamic Courts continues to call for Jihad "against 'the enemy of Somalia'" and warned African peacekeeprs from deploying to Somalia. The Islamic Courts may be setting their sights on the Puntland region in central Somalia before dealing with the Ethiopians. In the mean time, the Islamic Courts consolidates their hold on power in Somalia, and the 17 terror training camps continue to churn out new fighters for the Islamic Courts and al-Qaeda.

« Close It

Palestinian Terrorists Release Tape of Kidnapped Journalists (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Al Jazeera has released a tape from a previously unknown group, the "Holy Jihad Brigades," with Fox News reporter Steve Centanni and cameraman Olaf Wiig, who were kidnapped August 14 from their TV van near the Palestinian security services headquarters in Gaza City. The group demands release of "Muslim prisoners" (supposedly) held by the the U.S within the next 72 hours. The two appear to be in good physical condition on the video and talk on the video.

Fox News has a transcript of the terrorists' statement released with the video, with the following demand: "In exchange for the release of the Muslim prisoners, males and females in the prisons of America, with our prisoners. Release our prisoners and we will do the same. This applies to all without exception. And every Muslim is more cherished and more generous that a 1,000 Bushes. But this is a tradeoff of equals. We will grant you 72 hours, that starts as of noon today during which you can look into this and if you carry out our condition we will carry out our promise, or else wait and we will wait with you and it will be in God's hands."

Fox News also has transcripts of the statement by Steve Centanni, and the statement by Olaf Wiig. CNN has a 1:33 clip of the prisoners' plea for help.

Picture from new video released by Ramattan agency:

Foreign Affairs: "The Real Online Terrorist Threat"

By Evan Kohlmann

I have published a piece in the September/October edition of Foreign Affairs titled "The Real Online Terrorist Threat" analyzing the increasingly complex world of modern cyberterrorism. The article includes new revelations concerning a number of case studies, including that of Irhaby007 (a.k.a. London resident Younis Tsouli).

An opening excerpt from the Foreign Affairs website:
"The United States is gradually losing the online war against terrorists. Rather than aggressively pursuing its enemies, the U.S. government has adopted a largely defensive strategy, the centerpiece of which is an electronic Maginot Line that supposedly protects critical infrastructure (for example, the computer systems run by agencies such as the Department of Defense and the Federal Aviation Administration) against online attacks. In the meantime, terrorists and their sympathizers, unhindered by bureaucratic inertia and unchallenged by Western governments, have reorganized their operations to take advantage of the Internet's more prosaic properties."

Fuel for Radicalism?

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

The Arab News published an article this week called “Irresponsible Statements Fueling Radicalism: WAMY" A headline that could easily be a parody in The Onion or on Saturday Night Live.
“In an interview with Arab News, [Saleh] Al-Wohaibi [Secretary General of WAMY] described Bush’s remarks [“Islamic fascists”] as being unhelpful and said they were instrumental in creating problems for a pan-Islamic organization such as WAMY, which is trying to fight extremism among the youth. ‘They make our task difficult,’ he said”

This is the same WAMY that published and distributed a book titled, Islamic Camps: Objectives, Program Outlines, Preparatory Steps, as a guide for other Muslim groups planning camps. The book lists steps for starting a camp, creating a program, inviting participants, establishing goals, and other technical advice. It also includes sample schedules, a list of sports and activities, lectures, meals and free time. In the index, Islamic Camps suggests chants such as:

“Hail! Hail! O Sacrificing Soldiers! / To Us! To Us! So we may defend the flag / on this Day of Jihad, are you miserly with your blood?!…Come! So we may revive the times the times of our predecessors!”

New Movie Opens Window Into Terrorists' Suicidal Culture

By Andrew Cochran

Last year, I posted an interview with Pierre Rehov, a French filmmaker who has filmed numerous documentaries on the terrorists in the Palestinian areas, in part through interviews with them and their families. At that time, he was preparing his seventh film, "Suicide Killers," about the culture and psychopathology behind Palestinian suicide bombers. The film will open this week in theaters in New York City and Los Angeles, and I wish Mr. Rehov and his crew a successful opening and run. Unlike "Paradise Now," which received plaudits from media critics but came dangerously close to legitimizing suicide killers, Mr. Rehov recognizes the evil behind the suicidal mindset and condemns it. You can see the trailer from "Suicide Killers" and links to Mr. Rehov's other films at his website.

More than ever, with the London liquid terrorism plot fresh in the news, we need to understand and counter the twisted means by which Islamist extremists brainwash young Muslims into undertaking suicide. "Suicide Killers" is an outstanding and important clinical examination of that culture. Here is a segment from my interview with Pierre Rehov in July 2005, after the London bombings, with his disturbing prediction:

Are these men traveling outside their native areas in large numbers? Based on your research, would you predict that we are beginning to see a new wave of suicide bombings outside the Middle East?

Every successful terror attack is considered a victory by the radical Islamists. Everywhere Islam is expands there is regional conflict. Right now, their are thousands of candidates for martyrdom lining up in training camps in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Inside Europe, hundreds of illegal mosques are preparing the next step of brain washing to lost young men who cannot find a satisfying identity in the Occidental world. Israel is much more prepared for this than the rest of the world will ever be. Yes, there will be more suicide killings in Europe and the U.S. Sadly, this is only the beginning.

Here are two photos from the film:

The Ongoing Battle for Baghdad

By Bill Roggio

Phase 2 of Operation Together Forward is in its early stages. Click map to view.

The city of Baghdad, as well as Baghdad Province has become the epicenter of violence in Iraq. In a recent press briefing, Major General Bill Caldwell stated an estimated eighty percent of the violence in Iraq is occurring in Baghdad province.

The Iraqi government must establish some semblance of control over the city. Baghdad is the political center of Iraq, as well as the focal point for the foreign media, which plays a large roll in influencing international opinion on Iraq. The legitimacy of the Iraqi government is at stake, as is the potential for support of America at risk. Prime Minister Maliki's reconciliation program, which has attracted interest from many Sunni insurgent groups, including two large factions, is also in jeopardy. The longer the sectarian violence goes uncontrolled, the greater the chance for the Sunni insurgent groups to give up on the program.

Baghdad has been difficult to secure for a variety of reasons. It is difficult to fight all-out counterinsurgency in a dense urban area such as Baghdad, a city with over six million residents. The potential for high civilian casualties along with the wholesale destruction of neighborhoods and civilian infrastructure would be politically untenable for both the Maliki government and the Bush administration.

To combat the insurgency, and sectarian and criminal violence in Baghdad, the Iraqi government and Coalition announced Operation Together Forward. USA Today provides a simplified breakdown of the operation. "The offensive is planned in stages and is designed to avoid an all-out attack. In the first phase, launched July 9, Iraqi security forces positioned checkpoints throughout the city. In the second phase, launched last week, Iraqi forces supported by U.S. troops began isolating and clearing parts of the city block by block. Iraqi security forces will remain to provide security once areas are cleared. When areas are stable, the government will bring economic assistance into blighted neighborhoods." This strategy is essentially what the Marines call the "3 Block War."

Map of Baghdad and location of the four worst neighborhoods. Click map to view.

While many pundits have dismissed the operation as a failure as it did not secure the city within weeks of launch, the Coalition appears to have a longer time line to secure Baghdad measured in months, not weeks. As USA Today reports, the second phase of the operation began in the second week of August.

Operation Together Forward is focusing on four of the most violent neighborhoods of Baghdad: Doura, Mansour, Shula and Azamiyah. These are neighborhoods where the sectarian violence has been at its worst. Coalition forces have begun operations in Doura and Ameriya. In both cases, the neighborhoods were cordoned off, and each building was searched. "Kilometer after kilometer of barriers emplaced, building what some may call the semblance of a gated community, affording them greater security with ingress and egress routes established and manned by Iraqi security forces with coalition forces in support," as the Multinational Forces - Iraq press release describes the operation in Doura.

A similar strategy of cordon, search, secure and rebuild was successfully executed in Tal Afar, and is currently being executed in the Sunni insurgent stronghold city of Ramadi. Tal Afar, with populations of 170,000 was secured in less than a month, while Ramadi, with a population of 400,000 is still up for grabs.

Securing Baghdad has its own unique problems other than the size and scale of the operation, as well as the number of forces needed. Baghdad is a multi-ethnic city, with large Shia and Sunni populations. Sadr's militia, the Mahdi Army, is playing a large role in the sectarian violence, as is its sponsor Iran. Sadr's militia has been repeatedly been the target of Iraqi and Coalition operations. And the Shiite dominated police force is not trusted by the Iraqi public. They have been accused of corruption and complicity in the sectarian violence. In some cases, the police stand by as Sadr's militias rampage, and in other instances have actively participated in the murders. The Iraqi police must be reigned in if Baghdad is to be secured.

The strategy isolating neighborhoods from the insurgents and militias and restoring services has worked elsewhere in Iraq, and the question is can it succeed in a large city such as Baghdad. The insurgents, militias and criminals have the advantage of melting away during the major security operations, and infiltrating back in after the clearing operation ends as the entire city cannot be secured at once. This will be a challenge for the security forces left behind to police the neighborhoods, and it is vital the security force is vetted and supervised by Coalition teams and the Iraqi Army.

Time is working against the Iraqi government as they risk losing the gains made in forwarding reconciliation after the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Every effort should be made to push every last available security asset into Baghdad lest the hard work in the provinces of the past two years be negated by a failure to secure Baghdad.

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Official Press Releases on London Airline Bomb Plot Charges

By Evan Kohlmann

In addition to a statement given by Susan Hemming, the head of the U.K.'s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) Counterterrorism Unit, CPS has also released details on those charged today in relation to an Al-Qaida-linked terrorist plot aimed at detonating improvised explosive devices onboard aircraft headed to the U.S.

Separately, the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) has released the full text of an accompanying statement today from Deputy Commissioner Peter Clarke of the MPS Anti-Terrorist Branch regarding the failed airline bomb plot.

Islamists Have a Plan, We do Not

By Douglas Farah

Europe has become the focal point for recruitment and expansion for several strands of Islamist thought and activity, from the Muslim Brotherhood to salafists fighting in Iraq and recruiting for Afghanistan. There is some tension between and among these groups, but what these groups have in common is a clear sense of what they are doing and why.

Perhaps the most interesting move, and one with long-term implications, is the (largely successful) efforts by these groups to buy large amounts of real estate, territory that effectively becomes "Muslim" land once it is in the hands of Islamist groups. Some groups are signing agreements to guarantee that they will only sell the land to other Muslims.

The Brotherhood, particularly, is active in investments in properties and businesses across Europe, laying the groundwork for the future network that will be able to react rapidly and with great flexibility in case of another attempted crackdown on the group's financial structure. My full blog is here.

Possible North Korean Nuclear Test Linked to Iranian Deadline?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

When news broke Friday that North Korea may be preparing for an underground detonation of a nuclear device, the question that immediately arose in my mind was whether this was linked to Iran's self-imposed Aug. 22 deadline for providing a final answer about its nuclear development. Certainly the two countries have cooperated in the past. For example, I have previously blogged about Iran's purchase of missiles from North Korea.

It is entirely conceivable that these two items are unrelated. It's possible that North Korea isn't planning for an underground test at all: South Korean unification minister Lee Jong Seok has said that he hasn't "heard of a confirmation of concrete evidence that North Korea is preparing a nuclear test." But when this news broke about North Korea, I certainly hope that the thought of a possible connection to Iran's Aug. 22 deadline crossed the minds of our intelligence analysts, among others.

The Kidnapping of Jill Carroll

By Bill Roggio

Jill Carroll, the Christian Science Monitor reporter who was kidnapped by insurgents in Iraq last January and released 82 days later, has begun to tell the story of the long days she spent in captivity following her kidnapping. In a series called Hostage: The Jill Carroll Story, Jill provides a first person account of her kidnapping, the murder of her partner, and her initial days in captivity (the first few installments of the series are currently online). This is a fascinating look at the thoughts and feeling of a victim of a kidnapping plot, and the mindset and operational methods of her captors.

Jill describes the odd events on the day of her kidnapping, where a meeting with Sunni politician Adnan Dulaimi was delayed, then canceled, an event far to suspicious to be coincidence (Dulaimi's party was instrumental in her release and she was dropped off at his office after her time as a hostage ended.) The murder of her professional partner weighed heavily on Jill's conscience. Her treatment during capture juxtaposed with his brutal murder was perplexing. Jill was allowed to channel surf, played with the children of the family at the safe house, and asked what kind of food she preferred.

While embedded in Iraq, I met Jill at Battle Position Hue City, one of three Coalition outposts in the city of Husaybah, which sits directly on the Syrian border. Jill had been in Husaybah for some time, and I knew of her from her writings on Iraq. She was one of the few embeds who in my opinion did a respectable job at covering the war in Anbar province. I had sourced some of her reports in my analysis of the 'Anbar Campaign.' We met on November 30th, during a transfer of command ceremony. The ceremony was attended by General Casey and then-Defense Minster Dulaimi.

I began to introduce myself to Jill, but she already knew who I was. She said her editor told her to keep an eye out for me. Not too many bloggers willing to cover the war pass through Anbar province, and the community of journalists in Iraq is small to begin with. We discussed the situation in Iraq and other issues. I was interested in Jill's experiences as an independent journalist. Jill was excited about her planned vacation in the southwestern Pacific. I asked about Jill's future plans in Iraq, and if she was going to remain embedded with the U.S. military.

Jill explained she was going to return to Baghdad and operate outside of the U.S. military’s protection. She said she spoke fluent Arabic and took precautions to blend in with the local population, such as wearing the local dress and remaining in the company of an Iraqi stringer.

Jill is a quadruple threat: young, pretty, a journalist and American. I warned Jill about that, and that disembedding was very dangerous. Journalists have been the intentional target of the insurgency in the past, and the brutal case of Margaret Hassan came to mind (Jill mentions Hassan's death in her own account of her capture). A captured western journalist was sure to receive an inordinate amount of airtime, particularly one with Jill's “credentials.”

NEFA Report - "The Jihadists of Pakistan: Jaish-e-Muhammad (JEM), Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HUM), and Anjuman Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP)"

By Evan Kohlmann

A new report is available for download from the Nine Eleven Finding Answers (NEFA) Foundation website titled, "The Jihadists of Pakistan: Jaish-e-Muhammad (JEM), Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HUM), and Anjuman Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP)." The document is based upon an expert witness report that I submitted on behalf of federal prosecutors in the recent case of United States v. Hamid Hayat (U.S. Dist. Court for the Eastern District of California, CR#05-240GB). The report contains a detailed discussion of Pakistan-based military training camps used by JEM and HUM, and further analysis of what has become of those camps under the so-called "Regime of Controlled Freedom."

In related news, Time Magazine is now reporting that one of the British suspects detained in Pakistan as part of the ongoing airline terror investigation is related through inter-marriage to a top leader of JEM (formerly of HUM), Maulana Masood Azhar.

Recent Turkish Actions Shed Light on Agreement with U.S. Over PKK

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Turkish soldiers head toward the border.

I've written about how the U.S., Turkey and Iraq developed a joint strategy to combat the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) terrorist group's presence in Iraq. The strategy was developed in order to prevent Turkey from undertaking a unilateral incursion into Iraq, which would have risked accidental Turkish engagement with non-PKK Kurdish forces or even U.S. forces. In recent days, Turkey has undertaken a number of anti-PKK actions that shed some light on the agreement.

Most dramatically, Turkey has amassed a force along the border with Iraq that is reported to be 50,000 strong. It has been reported that "[h]undreds of tanks and military vehicles arrived in the southeastern town of Yuksekova in Hakkari province last week." There are also reports of commando units being deployed near the border. This is a considerable troop buildup -- even for Turkey, which boasts NATO's second largest military. There have also been a number of reported Turkish incursions into Iraq. Zaman Online reported that the Turkish military fired artillery at a PKK camp in northern Iraq on Aug. 7 and 8. Local villages described the artillery fire as "heavy." Also, beginning on Aug. 12, the Turkish army opened fire for several days on a PKK camp known as Hakurk, in an area where the Turkish, Iranian and Iraqi borders intersect.

Turkey's recent actions emphasize four key points about the U.S.-Turkish-Iraqi agreement on the PKK:

1. Although the agreement is said to be no more than a handshake deal (without the precise contours delineated in writing), Turkey's recent actions show that it gives Turkish forces considerable latitude to go into northern Iraq to root out the PKK. Although there are no reports thus far of Iraqi forces participating in this fight, Iraqi police shut down the PKK's contact office in Baghdad. The Ocalan Culture Center had previously been used "for political purposes, for international contacts with PKK terrorists and for monitoring the treatment of injured PKK members."

2. The agreement is helping to prevent accidental fighting, such as clashes between the Turkish military and non-PKK Kurdish forces or U.S. forces. Accidental fighting was one potential concern related to Turkish intervention in Iraq, and thus far it appears that the U.S.-Turkey agreement has diminished that possibility.

3. Local Kurdish forces don't seem to mind the Turkish interventions. As long as Turkey limits its incursions to combating the PKK and doesn't target Iraqi Kurds in general, the Kurdish forces appear supportive of Turkish efforts.

4. The agreement helps to prevent Iran from driving a wedge between the U.S. and Turkey. Although reports indicate that Turkish and Iranian forces are simultaneously bombing PKK targets, it appears that U.S. willingness to address the PKK problem has prevented Iran from using this issue to divide the U.S. and Turkey diplomatically. (The Turkish foreign ministry spokesman denies that there has been joint Turkey-Iran operations against the PKK, saying somewhat obscurely, "Turkey co-operates with Iran to assure the security of borders. Aside from this co-operation, no other joint operation has taken place.")

Overall, the agreement between the U.S., Turkey and Iraq over the PKK should be seen as a diplomatic victory at this stage.

UPDATE, AUG. 20, 2006: Turkish newspaper Zaman's discussion of my analysis can be found here.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Another Amnesty for Members of JI: Indonesia Continues to Offend Australia

By Zachary Abuza

Ten of the 33 individuals arrested in conjunction with the 12 October 2002 bombing on the resort island of Bali, Indonesia, had their sentences reduced as part of an annual national independence day amnesty (54,000 criminals had their sentences reduced). One, Puryanto, who was arrested for harboring some of the bombers, walked free as a result of his three month remission. Three of the Bali bombers, Amrozi, Mukhlas and Imam Samudra remain on death row. Despite their previous pledges that they wanted to die as martyrs, they have all appealed their sentences. Their executions are schedueled to take place on or around 22 August. A fourth bomber, Ali Imron, received a life sentence.

The release has provoked outrage in Australia, which lost more than 80 of its nationals in the attack and whose embassy in Jakarta was bombed by members of Jemaah Islamiyah on 9 September 2004. Australia has provided significant technical, personnel, financial and educational assistance to Indonesia’s counter-terrorism efforts.

Rehman, Rauf, suspected London Airline Plotters Captured, and the Pakistani Connection

By Bill Roggio

Wanted photo of Matiur Rehman. Click photo to view.

Two of the suspected ring leaders of the al-Qaeda London Airline Plot to destroy aircraft en route to the United States have been captured by Pakistani intelligence. Matiur Rehman, who is believed to be a high-ranking leader in al-Qaeda's Pakistan operations, was captured in the Pakistani city of Bahawalpur. Rashid Rauf, who is described as "the planner of the attacks who recruited people to take part in the plot," was also captured in the city of Bahawalpur. His arrest just prior to the announcement of the airline plot is said to have sparked the arrests of al-Qaeda operatives in Britain and Pakistan.

The involvement of Rauf and Rehman highlights the interconnective web of the radical Pakistani terrorist groups. Rehman was a member of Harakat-ul-Jihad-ul-Islami (HUJI) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). As the "keeper of the Jihadi Rolodex," the list of the tens of thousands of jihadis who passed through al-Qaeda's training camps, Rehman is by default affiliated with the hodge-podge of Pakistani terror groups (see my post on Rehman and Pakistani links for more details.)

TIME reports Rauf is the relative of Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader the Pakistani based Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) which conducts terror attacks in Indian Kashmir. Rauf's father in law runs the radical "Darul Uloom Madina, one of Pakistan's biggest and most hard line seminaries, with some 2,000 students, in Bahawalpur." To restate, both Rehman and Rauf were arrested Bahawalpur, which is highly unlikely to be a coincidence. Rauf's father founded Crescent Relief, a Muslim charity that purportedly collected funds for earthquake relief and is now under investigation for funneling money to fund the London plot (See Evan Kolhmann's posts on LeT/JuD and the UK connection to earthquake relief .)

One item of note with TIME's article on Rauf. TIME describes al-Qaeda as "Osama Bin Laden's Afghanistan-based network," however this characterization is inaccurate. Al-Qaeda has largely regrouped in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, particularly in the agencies of North and South Waziristan.

Islamic Courts Union Continues to Gain Ground in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

ICU militiamen aboard one of their many "technicals."

I recently blogged about the Islamic Courts Union's (ICU) rapid expansion throughout Somalia. If anything, that expansion has only hastened since I last wrote about it. This weekend, along with seizing the port city of Harardhere, the ICU also captured Eldher, another strategic coastal town known for its piracy.

And yesterday the ICU captured the central Somali port city of Hobyo, which lies 500 km north of Mogadishu along Somalia's coast. Residents reported that the militia's "technicals" -- which are pickup trucks that have been converted into battlewagons, with heavy weaponry welded onto the back -- surrounded Hobyo and then sent an envoy to negotiate its surrender. Eyewitnesses saw ICU leader Hassan Dahir Aweys personally lead ICU forces into the town. After this latest ICU victory, one Western diplomat stated, "They are very smart, they are gradually consolidating their territory, while the government looks on helplessly."

While the ICU controls a large geographic portion of south-central Somalia and seemingly gains ground each day, the interim government looks increasingly helpless. Reuters reported yesterday:

With Islamists strongholds effectively flanking Baidoa, President Abdullahi Yusuf's interim government, which meets in a converted grain warehouse, looks more vulnerable than ever. Although it is internationally recognised as Somalia's only legitimate national authority, it lacks any real power on the ground beyond Baidoa and commands only a small militia compared with the Islamists' large fighting force. Regional power Ethiopia has, however, bolstered the government's position by sending troops into Somalia to take up positions around Baidoa, according to witnesses.

As the Islamic militias gain ground in Somalia, they encounter little resistance. Residents don't have much incentive to fight the ICU, since the transitional government did little to engender loyalty. In fact, many residents welcome the prospect of stability that the ICU brings to a country that has been ravaged by war. Moreover, some of the government's soldiers have defected to the ICU's force, further adding to the Islamic militia's strength. Court chairman Mohamed Ali Bilal explained the defection of militiamen to the ICU: "They are ideologically uncomfortable with the government and also claim to have been mistreated."

The ICU's expansion in Somalia mirrors that of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 1990s, as made clear by Ahmed Rashid's definitive book Taliban:

The Taliban had won over the unruly Pashtun south because the exhausted, war-weary population saw them as saviours and peacemakers, if not as a potential force to revive Pashtun power which had been humiliated by the Tajiks and Uzbeks. Many surrenders had been facilitated by pure cash, bribing commanders to switch sides -- a tactic that the Taliban were to turn into a fine art form in later years and which was sustained by the growth in their income from the drugs trade, the transport business and external aid from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

As the ICU has expanded, it has also put peace talks on hold with the transitional government for at least two weeks. The UN's call for the Islamic militia to rejoin these talks has gone unheeded.

The UN Security Council also warned Somalia's neighbors against interfering in Somalia's affairs, and threatened sanctions against all violators of an arms embargo on the country. This warning is obviously directed against Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, given the visible weakness of the transitional government, this call for non-interference is only likely to benefit the ICU.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

MNF-Iraq Update on Al-Qaeda in Iraq

By Bill Roggio

Major General William Caldwell's August 16th briefing on the state of counterinsurgency operations in Baghdad also includes an interesting, extended look at efforts to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq and intelligence gleaned from the terror organization based on the capture of detainees (as well as the examination of documents, computers and other materials, which are not mentioned in the briefing). According to Maj. Gen. Caldwell, Coalition forces have obtained “ unique insight into the plans and operations of al-Qaida in Iraq and what they are doing to achieve their goals.”

Al-Qaeda in Iraq remains a potent force behind the sectarian violence, and is still working to instigate a civil war between the Shiites and Sunnis. al-Qaeda also recognizes the “killing of innocent Iraqi civilians has damaged their public support and is working to reverse that perception.” With the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the brutal Sheikh of Slaughters who personally beheaded western captives, this task becomes easier. An intelligence official tells me that Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the purported new head of the Mujahideen Shura Council and Zarqawi's replacement, has issued a decree forbidding the filming of the beheading of captives.

The terror group is attempting to form a political wing and present itself as a “legitimate political organization to be viewed as the alternative to the legitimate, duly-elected government of Iraq.” It also is striving to to co-opt the support of the Sunni tribes (much of this support in Western Anbar province eroded as al-Qaeda's brutal form of government combined with the assassination of tribal leaders and the US offensive turned the tribes against them.). There are difficulties in spreading propaganda message via media outlets. The importance of interpersonal relationships is also highlighted. “Placement and access into the inner circles is won through personal associations, demonstrated loyalty and vetted experience. Key personalities are known associates of trusted members,” says Maj. Gen. Caldwell. Al-Qaeda's greatest weapon in Iraq continues to be the ability to spread money around, and this is its greatest tool for recruitment.

The information below is excerpted from Major General William Ca/dwell's August 16th briefing:

How The Road To Terror Leads Back To London

By Jeffrey Imm

It has been reported that it was planned for today --August 16 -- that terrorists planned to kill many thousands of Americans in coordinated attacks using 9-10 jetliners on the United States homeland. But whether investigations show that it ultimately turns out to have been planned for today or another date, one thing is certain, that this coordinated "mass murder" terrorist attack was planned to be much worse than the 9/11 attacks.

Today, the United States is still threatened by the fellow citizens of the country of these terrorists, which has 1200 active Jihadist terrorists currently planning between 20 to 70 terrorist plots, with 8000 terrorist sympathizers, whose citizens have made three attempted mass casualty terrorist attacks on USA homeland (Richard Reid - December 2001, Financial District Terrorists - August 2004, 10 Jetliner Terrorists - August 2006) threatening the lives of thousands of Americans, whose national tolerance of radical Islam has made it a planning and logistics center for global terror attacks, with an Islamic population of 1.6 – 1.8 million, where 13% of its Islamic population views terrorists as "martyrs", where 16% of its Islamic population is sympathetic to suicide bombers, where 40% of its Islamic population seeks the implementation of Sharia law, and where 45% of its Islamic population thinks that USA was responsible for 9/11 attacks. It is a country that is and has been a home to radical Islamists from around the world. This is the same country that Osama Bin Laden planned to immigrate to while he was planning the 9/11 attacks on the USA. It is a country that seems to give the greatest latitude to those extremists who call for violence as "Behead Those Who Insult Islam," "Slay Those Who Insult Islam," "Kill Those Who Insult Islam," "Butcher Those Who Mock Islam," and to those who praise the 9/11 terrorists -- while criticizing those who would oppose such murder-minded maniacs – and where members of its government publicly support suicide bombers.

Surprisingly, this country is not Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or Pakistan. This country is the USA's military ally in the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters -- the United Kingdom.

The LeT/Jamaat-ud-Dawa Presence in the United Kingdom

By Evan Kohlmann

Yesterday, in response to reports in the Washington Post and the New York Times implicating Pakistani earthquake relief funds in the latest airliner bomb plot in Great Britain, Abdullah Muntazir--a prominent spokesman for the Islamic militant organization Jamaat-ud-Dawa (a.k.a. Lashkar-e-Taiba)--denied playing any role in the plot and further insisted that the group is "totally based in Pakistan" and has no presence abroad in the United Kingdom, nor does it collect money in Europe.

While it remains to be seen exactly how Jamaat-ud-Dawa funds played into the latest UK terror plot, there is ample and undeniable evidence that the group has been actively raising funds and recruiting in Western Europe and North America. What is even more ironic/humorous about Muntazir's current denials is that previously--in an inexplicable contradiction--he has openly acknowleged that LeT/Jamaat-ud-Dawa recruited British nationals of South Asian descent and trained them in jihad tactics. The following is an excerpt from an expert witness report I submitted earlier this year on behalf of British Crown Prosecutors in the criminal case of Regina v. Mohammed Ajmal Khan, Palvinder Singh, et al. (Snaresbrook Court):

In order to obtain advanced military technology and to recruit Westernized operatives, LeT has relied upon a global network of militants and supporters—with primary focus on North America and the United Kingdom. In the spring of 2003 alone, a Pakistani journalist reported that LeT had successfully raised over ₤13 million from Pakistani Muslims in the United Kingdom “in the name of Eid sacrifice.” During a 1999 interview with a U.K. journalist, LeT spokesman Abdullah Muntazir admitted that British Muslims—primarily of Kashmiri and Pakistani origin—were also joining LeT and receiving “military training” for the purposes of Jihad. Muntazir boasted, “We have Muslim volunteers from all over the world coming to join the jihad.”

Podcast at Global Crisis Watch

By Bill Roggio

On Sunday afternoon Richard Lafayette and Nick Grace of Global Crisis Watch interviewed Daveed Gartenstein-Ross about the London Airline Plot and counterterrorism efforts. Also, I participated in a round table forum with Nir Boms of the Center for Freedom in the Middle East and Leah Soibel of the Israel Project. The topic was the war between Hezbollah and Israel, and the implications of the cease fire.

After Action Report: Winners and Losers in the Hezbollah-Israel War

By Bill Roggio

With the cessation of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel largely holding after 24 hours, it is time to look at the likely winners and losers of the Hezbollah-Israel war. Israel spent the weekend scrambling to reach the Litani River and consolidate their positions south of the river before the fighting ended, launching an attack which amounted to too little too late. The negotiated cease fire implemented by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, has lead to a major political victory for Hezbollah, Iran and Syria,and dealt Israel, Lebanon and the United States serious setbacks.

The Winners:

Hezbollah: Hezbollah achieved what it intended to do from the outset of hostilities: fight the IDF to a draw, force negotiations and a cease fire in the United Nations, dictate the terms of the cease fire, obtain international recognition and acceptance, further erode support for Israel in the international community and remain a viable political and military force within Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is now a man of stature in the Middle Eastern and Muslim world, and the dominant political leader in Lebanese politics. He has openly declared victory on Lebanese television. Sunni Islamist leaders, even from moderate groups as far away as Indonesia, have expressed support for Hezbollah. Imad Mugniyah has commanded an effective fighting force and stood up to the Israeli Defense Force, and survived with his military forces largely intact.

Some will argue that Hezbollah suffered a severe military loss, with an estimated 250-500 soldiers killed in southern Lebanon out of an estimated force of 1,000-2,000 active military. However, the high estimates puts Hezbollah's active fighters at around 5,000, with an unknown tens of thousands in reserve (the high estimate is 50,000 reservists with 20,000 as the median). And the argument is made that Hezbollah has now been denied southern Lebanon as a base of operation. While the Israeli military may have dealt Hezbollah a tactical defeat generally in southern Lebanon, killed a significant number of Hezbollah soldiers, degraded Hezbollah's long range rocket supplies and was able to push to the Litani at the end of the campaign, Hezbollah's military and political organization survived to fight another day. The resupply of medium and long range rockets from the Iranian and Syrian backers will begin immediately, and the Syrian supply lines into the Bekaa valley remain wide open. Hezbollah is stating it has no intention of turning over its weapons, but will “refrain from exhibiting them publicly.”

Up until the last 24 hours of the war, just prior to the cease fire taking hold, Hezbollah made the Israeli Defense Forces pay dearly when attempting to take towns just a few kilometers across the border. While much of the IDF's hesitation was due to political disorganization, Hezbollah gave the appearance of staving off an IDF assault, and actually can legitimately claim some tactical victories of their own. Hezbollah caused the elite Golani Brigade to retreat from Bint Jubayl, and was able to continually fire rockets from areas in southern Lebanon despite a blanket of air coverage, counter-battery artillery and the close proximity of the IDF. Hezbollah also repeatedly launched barrages of rockets against Israeli towns and cities, disabled an Israeli warship with a cruise missile and launched UAVs into northern Israel.

Islamic Courts Union Expands Its Control in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) made two major strategic gains over the past week. Last Wednesday, it wrested control of the town of Beletuein from its previous pro-government rulers. Fighting broke out around 7:00 a.m. local time between Islamic militiamen and forces loyal to Yusuf Ahmed Hagar, whom the transitional government had nominated as governor of the Hiran region. After the fighting began, Hagar reportedly "escaped with two pick up trucks mounted with heavy machineguns heading to the border of Ethiopia." The city now appears calm, and firmly in the hands of the ICU.

The capture of Beletuein is a significant strategic victory for the ICU. It's located about 335 km north of Somali capital Mogadishu. Capturing Beletuein allows the ICU greater flexibility to move its militias and supplies, and could prove to be a key city if the ICU wishes to further spread its influence into Ethiopia. Moreover, Somalia's transitional government is located in Baidoa. Capturing Beletuein helps the ICU to move strategically around Baidoa and establish its presence around the city.

The ICU also reportedly captured another strategic town over the weekend. The town of Harardhere, a port city that is used as a base for piracy, lies just north of Mogadishu. The BBC reports that on capturing Harardhere, the ICU told residents that piracy would be a crime from now on, and that incidents of piracy "have reportedly declined since the Islamic militia made territory gains."

Fighters within the ICU's militia have indicated that they also plan to spread its influence to Galkayo, a town 570 km northwest of Mogadishu. Galkayo borders the semi-autonomous Puntland region, and Puntland militiamen have indicated their willingness to fight the ICU as it tries to expand its reach. Puntland Gen. Yusuf Ahmed Kheyr said in a radio broadcast, "We hear that the militiamen want to expand their authority throughout Somalia, but we will never accept such expansion." If the ICU successfully seizes Galkayo, that could result in the ICU controlling the majority of Somalia.

There are two major implications to the ICU's expansion. The first is the connection between the ICU and al-Qaeda: as the ICU makes gains, it is more likely that al-Qaeda can establish itself in the country, much to the terror group's advantage. Counterterrorism consultant Dan Darling has written a good article for the Daily Standard outlining why there is reason to be concerned about links between the ICU and al-Qaeda.

The second major implication is that the ICU's advances may set the stage for a military conflict between it and Ethiopia. (See my previous blog entry analyzing whether war was brewing between Ethiopia and the ICU.) Analysts from the International Crisis Group have reported that "[m]ilitary and diplomatic observers in Nairobi believe Ethiopia is preparing to carry out a short, sharp strike deep into southern Somalia if it deems the Courts a sufficient threat." Indeed, over the weekend the BBC reported that Ethiopia has amassed six divisions (close to 5,000 troops, including tanks) along the Somali border. Sources believe that Ethiopia could intervene if the ICU crosses into Puntland. Moreover, as of today eyewitnesses claimed to see at least 30 Ethiopian military vehicles crossing into Somalia at the Jawil border crossing. This has triggered speculation that the Ethiopians may work alongside Yusuf Ahmed Hagar's loyalists to return him to power.

In light of these developments, Somali prime minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi (who leads the transitional government) has called for ceasefire talks with the ICU. The ICU, however, says it will only enter such talks if Ethiopia withdraws its troops from Somalia. The situation in Somalia is nowhere close to a resolution, and there is a significant chance of escalation.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Did LeT Earthquake Relief Money Fund the London Airline Plot?

By Evan Kohlmann

An article in today's New York Times suggests that Pakistani investigators have found a possible financial link between those arrested this week in connection with a would-be terrorist plot targeting U.S. airliners and a Pakistani militant group that, until just a few months ago, was raising money directly from the United States through the Wall Street branch of the Bank of New York.

The group in question, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, is merely a cover name for the internationally-banned terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)--which has strong links to Al-Qaida and harbors a violently anti-American agenda. The relationship between the two groups is no secret, and even senior Pakistani government officials have acknowledged as much in media interviews. Last January, in a paper published by the Danish Institute of International Studies (DIIS), I discussed the troubling continued existence of LeT/Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and its questionable role in providing "earthquake relief" inside Pakistan. My advice to the Pakistanis is the same now as it was then: "Pakistan must take care that a humanitarian disaster like October’s earthquake does not lead to a manmade disaster fomented by religious fanatics emboldened by the sudden spread of [Jamaat-ud-Dawa's] populist message. At a time when Pakistan’s government is increasingly under siege by fundamentalist militants, it must take care to keep such NGOs and missionary charities at arms length – to avoid inadvertently becoming their next victim."

More relevant excerpts from the paper as follows:

The Problem with 9/11 Movies in USA

By Jeffrey Imm

This weekend, yet another 9/11 docudrama movie, "World Trade Center", is being shown in theaters to dramatize the history of the first Jihadist terrorist mass casualty attack on the USA homeland. It has been tastefully done, certainly in comparison to Oliver Stone's other controversial films, and reminds that Americans in crisis can display extraordinary heroism and courage. I also saw "United 93" which in grim near-documentary style depicts the events of that tragic 9/11 flight, and dramatizes the courageous efforts of Americans to bring that flight down, sacrificing their lives to stop the terrorists’ attack. And there have been similar television movies, "Flight 93" (A&E), "DC 9/11: Time of Crisis" (Showtime), etc.

In theory, these should be inspirational films to Americans to remind them of the need for vigilance, courage, and sacrifice today to fight the ongoing threat today of the Jihadist terrorist enemy. But is that really what these films do? Not likely. And that is the problem with such films.

Oh certainly, for a few minutes, American hearts may sadden once again, and feel a rush of anger and outrage at the evil Jihadists. And I confess to shaking my fist at the dramatized Jihadists on the big screen, during the screening of "United 93", as actors portraying the brave American passengers wrested control of the plane.

But how does the making of the 9/11 attacks into a HISTORICAL docudrama help us with the war now? Because that is precisely what the 9/11 films are doing - displaying the 9/11 attacks as something that happened once, a long time ago.

"Never Forget" is not the same as "Never Again".

As such 9/11 films continue to make 9/11 a symbol of "ancient" American history in a nation with nano-second attention span, the challenge is that the ongoing and very REAL war of Jihadists against USA is increasingly forgotten.

And what the 9/11 films lack are context - the acknowledgement and recognition that 9/11 is not simply some terrible part of history that happened 5 years ago - but that 9/11 was an opening salvo in a long and protracted war of Jihadists on the USA and its civilization that is going on right now - today.

As 9/11 films dramatize the history of that Jihadist attack, Americans need to be more concerned about "Never Again", rather than "Never Forget". The foiled August 16 British terrorist attacks against USA are a reminder that the Jihadist war on the USA homeland is very much alive and very much active. It is not yet time to write cinematic historical tributes to an ongoing active war that Americans should be more focused on winning instead, and focused on making whatever sacrifices are necessary to defeat the Jihadist enemy.

The war is not over.

Offensives Against the Abu Sayyaf and JI in the Philippines: Reports of MILF Ties to JI Persist

By Zachary Abuza

AFP announced that it had captured an Abu Sayyaf bomb factory in bud Kapun in Indanan town, Jolo. In retaliation the ASG assassinated two policemen. A Philippine military spokesman claimed that they had recovered a “huge cache of high-grade explosives” used by the ASG as well as members of JI.

Police implicated JI in a two bomb attacks in Cotabato and Kidapawan, North Cotabato, Mindanao on 10 August 2006, which killed one and left four others wounded.

Two police were killed in a shootout with suspected terrorists in Pikit, North Cotabato. They were searching for Zulkifli bin Hir (aka Marwan), one of the toip JI leaders in Mindanao and one other JI member, “Omar.”

Interestingly, the MILF claimed on their website that the police had “attacked an MILF position,” and that MILF troops were involved in the shootout with the police, and that they turned over the bodies of the slain officers. Their report, carried on the MILF website, www.luwaran.com, made no mention of the alleged presence of JI suspects. The MILF spokesman, Eid Kabalu said, “The name Marwan has never been heard in the area before this incident. We do not keep JIs or any terrorist group in our camps.”

The GRP-MILF ceasefire came under renewed strain this past week when the two sides exchanged mortar fire, leaving 6 dead.

Indonesia's Muhammidiyah Sending Funds to Hamas, Hezbollah

By Zachary Abuza

The head of Indonesia's Muhammidiyah, the world’s second largest Muslim organization, and concurrently the head of the Indonesian Ulama’s Council (MUI) has called for the organization to raise money for Hezbollah and Hamas. Din Syamsuddin, was quoted in the Jakarta Post as saying, “There is no need to send men there. I think we should donate more money to help Hezbollah and Hamas fighters buy more weapons.” Din Syamsuddin claimed that the Muhammidiyah had already donated money to Hamas and delivered it to the PLO “Embassy” in Jakarta. The Muhammidiyah has become increasing conservative in recent years. The US-educated Din Syamsuddin used his position in the MUI to call for recruits to travel to the conflict zones in Indonesia to engage in sectarian conflict from 1998-2001.

On Friday, the Indonesian Government announced that it sent $1 million in financial aid to the Hamas-controlled Palestinian government, and was preparing $1 million for Lebanon. The government is still considering sending a peace keeping force to Lebanon if a ceasefire is reached.

Large anti-American and anti-Israeli demonstrations were held in Jakarta on Saturday.

Counterterrorism Blog Posts on Terrorist Financing Methods & Our Continuing Vulnerabilities

By Andrew Cochran

The focus in the UK-US airline terror plot is now on the financing of the plot; Dennis Lormel and I were quoted in a Dow Jones MarketWatch story on that issue. A Financial Times story points out the difficulties in tracking terrorists' funds: "A greater problem for the authorities is the sheer lack of contact some terrorist suspects have with western banks, instead choosing to employ networks such as the Hawala system used by foreign workers around the world. The difficulties in following the money become even greater when nothing in the suspects' financial behaviour marks them out from millions of other account holders."

Here are selected posts by Counterterrorism Blog Contributing Experts this year (in chronological order) on terrorist financing methods and vulnerabilities which still need to be shut down:

IIRO Freezing Long Overdue
By Douglas Farah, August 3, 2006
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IIRO Funding Terror in Southeast Asia
By Zachary Abuza, August 3, 2006
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Al-Mabarrat – A Hezbollah Charitable Front in Dearborn, MI?
By Steven Emerson, July 22, 2006
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To Cut Hezbollah Funding, Cut External Financial Support
By Douglas Farah, July 21, 2006
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Europe Still Weighs Whether To Designate Hizbollah As A Terrorist Organization
By Victor Comras, July 20, 2006
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Hezbollah...Fundraising or Security Threat in U.S.?
By Dennis Lormel, July 16, 2006
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U.S. Government Terrorist Financing Initiative Involving SWIFT
By Dennis Lormel, June 23, 2006
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"Flow of Terror Funds Being Choked, U.S. Says:" -- A Skeptic Responds
By Victor Comras, June 19, 2006

It is not Social Isolation and Prejudice that Drive Islamist Radicals

By Douglas Farah

As the Western world again debates the roots of Islamist attacks on Britain and the United States, the question often posed is "Why do they hate us?" The conventional wisdom is that alienated youth, suffering prejudice and unemployment, migrate to suicide bombings to help redress the grievious injuries suffered by uncaring European societies that offer them no way out. Also mentioned are the broader political issues of Palestine, Iraq and recently, Hezbollah.

But the real answer is not so simple or so trite. There are certainly push factors: undoubtedly Northern Africans, Pakistanis and others suffer prejudice and social isolation. Many are angry at geopolitical issues.

The quetions is why the isolation, and that leads to the pull factors, which are just as strong and perhaps more important. The primary pull factor resides in a small number of easily identifiable and identified mosques. Most of the religious institutions are part of the Muslim Brotherhood network. For a more formal look at this, see my paper for the International Strategy and Assessment Center.

What is taught in these mosques, to young people already feeling aggrieved, is not new. They are told that assimilation is wrong and that the more alienated one feels, the closer one is to Allah. Western civilization is degenerate, filthy and full of sin. Rejection of the non-Muslim society in which one lives is a duty, and alienation and hatred a sign of favor from Allah. My full blog is here.

Iran Poised To Be "Mother of All World Threats"

By Walid Phares

I gave an interview to NewsMax.com that reflects my current analysis and predictions for the Middle East. An excerpt follows, and you can see the entire interview here:

For anyone who still thinks the Israeli-Lebanon war is just a border scuffle, one Middle East expert shouts a dire warning: "As soon as a cease fire occurs, the ‘Hezbollah Blitzkrieg' will crumble the ‘Lebanese Republic of Weimar' and install its own ‘Khumeinist Republic' on the Eastern shores of the Mediterranean. The consequences of such a development are far beyond imagination for the region and the world. Hezbollah would have paved the way for Iran to create the mother of all world threats since Hitler."

So cautions Professor Walid Phares, author of "Future Jihad," a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels, and a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.

In an exclusive interview with NewsMax, the Lebanese-born Phares likens the current Hezbollah offensive in Lebanon to a "putsch" -- with the convoluted aims of reestablishing a pro-Syrian-Iranian regime in Lebanon, reconstructing a third wing to the Tehran-Damascus axis, reanimating the Arab-Israeli conflict, rejuvenating Syrian dominance, isolating Jordan, reaching out to Hamas, crumbling Iraq, and unleashing Iran's nuclear programs.

The author also sees half-measures and premature truces as catalysts to even bloodier future conflicts:

"If Israel takes 40 kilometers [into the southern belly of Lebanon] and sits, Hezbollah and its allies will take the rest of the country and eliminate the Cedars Revolution [the Lebanese Democracy movement]. That is a certainty. Then the two camps will clash in a wider war in few more months."

As a corollary, however, the expert advises that if Israel gets even more aggressive and moves instead through the Bekaa (a fertile valley in Lebanon and Syria, located about 19 miles east of Beirut), it would shut down the Syrian-Lebanese borders (a major supply line for war materials flowing to Hezbollah)....

The long story short, says the expert: Syria, Iran and Hezbollah outmaneuvered the Lebanese politicians, as well as the West, by among other things keeping pro-Syrian Emile Jamil Lahoud, president of the Republic of Lebanon at the helm.

"It was terrible how the Lebanese politicians lost all the opportunities provided by the Cedars Revolution," laments Phares, "but it is worse that the bureaucrats in the U.S. and Europe didn't understand what Hezbollah was doing."

Intel Doc: Ramzi Yousef and Liquid Bombs

By Evan Kohlmann

Following up on my post from yesterday about past Al-Qaida-linked attempts at fielding liquid explosives against commercial aircraft, I am making available excerpts from the original 1995 Philippine intelligence document referenced in my post, care of the Nine Eleven Finding Answers (NEFA) Foundation website. To view the document, visit the the main NEFA homepage, and look at mid-right for a link to "Liquid Bombs Memorandum."

Hizbullah and Hizb-ut-Tahrir Meet, Discuss Alliance

By Zeyno Baran

The Lebanese daily al-Safir reports today (11/8/06) about several meetings which have been held between a Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT) delegation and two Hizbullah parliamentarians, Hussein al-Hajj Hasan and Amin Shirri. The article, translated by MWN, reports that the Hizb-ut-Tahrir delegation was believed to be headed by Muhammad Jaber.

The HT is reported to have issued a statement claiming discussions were held regarding the "developments in the American hostility towards Lebanon, which uses Israel as an instrument". The delegation is further stated to have declared the HT’s full support of the "courageous Jihad" of the "party of belief" which "wrote down a glorious page in the history of the Nation", and which in its steadfastness "blew up the legend of the unbeatable army".

The reports concludes by saying the two parties discussed the need to unite the lines of the Nation and try to prevent the civil war the US is accused of trying to bring about in the region.

To the Litani River; Heavy Fighting in Rashaf, Marjayoun

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view.

The government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has given the Israeli Defense Force the final approval to conduct the ground assault to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. "According to military sources, close to 70 percent of the Katyusha rockets raining down on Israel are fired just south of, and north of the Litani river. It is in these parts of Lebanon that the Hizbullah's Nasser Unit is waiting with thousands of fighters and functioning command and control centers," reports the Jerusalem Post. Over 40,000 Israeli troops are available for the full scale invasion of southern Lebanon.

Prior to the green light from the government, the IDF has been fighting pitched battles on the central and eastern sectors along the Lebanese border. The IDF has pushed into the Christian town of Marjayoun, which overlooks the Litani River and sits across Hezbollah supply lines south of the river. The IDF has also engaged Hezbollah in the town of Rashaf. The movement into Rashaf and Marjayoun is the IDF's deepest ground penetration into southern Lebanon since the war began (see the current battle map).

London Airline Bombing Plot News, Day Two (updated at 2:40 pm)

By Bill Roggio

Twenty-four Britons have been arrested in the London Airline plot, and the Bank of England has suspended the bank accounts of 19 suspects. Nineteen of the suspects are Muslim men between the ages of 17 to 35, and have been identified as "Abdula Ali, Cossor Ali, Shazad Ali, Nabeel Hussain, Tanvir Hussain, Umair Hussain, Umar Islam, Waseem Kayani, Assan Khan, Waheed Khan, Osman Khatib, Abdul Patel, Tayib Rauf, Muhammed Saddique, Assad Sarwar, Ibrahim Savant, Amin Tariq, Shamin Uddin and Waheed Zaman." At least two of the suspects "had converted to devout form of Islam." Two of the suspects are reported to have met Matiur Rehman, an al-Qaeda explosives expert in Pakistan. Matiur Rehman was an aid to Khallid Sheikh Muhammed, the mastermind behind 9-11, and currently al-Qaeda's planning director who is the prime suspect behind the U.S. consulate bombing in Karachi earlier this year.

The FBI is currently investigating an American connection to the airline plot. Pakistan is claiming credit for foiling the plot, and has arrested 8, including 2 Britons and 5 Pakistanis. The suspects were arrested in Lahore and Karachi. "A Pakistani intelligence official said an Islamic militant arrested near the Afghan-Pakistan border several weeks ago provided a lead that played a role in unearthing the plot," reports the Times Online. Money has been wired from Pakistan to the United Kingdom, some of the suspects traveled from the UK to Pakistan, and a ''martyrdom' video was found during raids in England.

Intelligence sources indicate August 16th was the planned date for the operation. DNA India reports, based on a source at Heathrow Airport, that a 'dry run' was foiled last Sunday when a man on a terror watch list was identified on a flight from the UK to the US. The man was traveling with his wife and three children, and liquid explosives were seized. This has yet to be confirmed.

ABC News and the New York Times provide background information on liquid explosives and explain the difficulties in detecting these substances. The bombs were to be made of acetone peroxide, otherwise known as 'Mother of Satan,' the same material used in the 7/7 London Tubes bombings. Just hours to the news of the airline plot, Mike Kraft discussed the bottlenecks in the U.S. government's interagency research and development efforts and the deployment of counterterrorism technology.

Iran is threatening terror attacks against the West

By Olivier Guitta

Hossein Shariatmadari, the president of the conservative Iranian Kayhan newspaper, wrote in his newspaper on July 31, 2006 an article where he asked "young Muslims to attack Zionists, Zionist centers as well as the embassies of the countries supporting Israel such as the U.S., the U.K., etc." and nobody really cares.
Shariatmadari is a mouthpiece for the regime in Tehran, and is appointed personally by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini.(He was interviewed by Newsweek here)
Iran usually acts on its threats by using proxies to perfom attacks on the West. For example, in 1986 Hezbollah on Tehran's orders terrorized Paris for a few months placing bombs in public places on a very regular basis;iIn 1992 and 1994 in Buenos Aires, the attack against the Israeli embassy and in 1994 the Jewish center; in 1996 the attack against the Khobar Towers.

In a related and very unreported story, Iran has litterally taken hostage two European citizens: one French and one German. In fact on November 29, 2005 they were sailing from Um Al Quwain, in the United Arab Emirates for a fishing trip. When they approached the island of Abu Mussa- which is legally in UAE territory but Iran claims it's his-, they were right away arrested by Iranian authorities for illegally entering "Iranian waters". They were sentenced to eighteen months in jail and are starting their ninth month in the famous Evin prison. Whtat's most interesting about this is that just before them two English sailors were arrested in the same spot but were released after ten days.
Why would the French and German citizens get such a harsher sentence?
Could it be that France and Germany part of the EU 3 who have been trying to negotiate with Iran on the nuclear issue, have been tougher on Iran than expected?
Iran will use any means to get their nuclear program up and running including attacking asymetrically any nation standing in its way. Western nations should be fully aware that the Hezbollah war on Israel is just the beginning...

Daily Standard: The Next Big One?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My article on assumptions that may need to be rethought in light of the large-scale plot announced yesterday by British authorities is now posted at the Daily Standard. An excerpt:

Dan Darling and Steve Schippert outlined a large number of connections between the 7/7 bombers and the al Qaeda network. These include: 7/7 ringleader Mohammad Sidique Khan meeting with senior Jemaah Islamiyah leaders; New York terror suspect Mohammed Junaid Babar identifying Khan from a photograph and claiming that they had met at an al Qaeda training camp; and British al Qaeda leader Haroon Aswat making phone calls to the 7/7 bombers just hours before the attacks.

While these connections suggest that the 7/7 attackers were not nearly as segregated from the international jihad network as some observers initially assumed, there is even less of a chance that the plot announced yesterday was conceived by a wholly autonomous, independent group. Estimates of the number of individuals involved in the foiled attack range from 50 up to perhaps as many as 150 people. It's unlikely that a terror group this large would form organically, without an outside hand. This is especially the case since they had a support network that stretches at least to Pakistan, and perhaps to the United States and Canada as well.

Thus, some analysts may need to rethink their previously-held assumptions about the broader al Qaeda network's inability to take part in another large-scale terror plot. One critical question concerns the operation's command and control. Who called the shots for the plot? Who gave it the green light? These answers are not yet known, but may well provide insight into the role al Qaeda's central leadership now plays in international terror.

A SECOND ASSUMPTION that should be reconsidered is the state of our efforts to defend soft targets. Preliminary reports suggest that terrorists involved in this plot took several transatlantic flights between Britain and the United States in order to probe weaknesses in airline security. This suggests an active enemy that is ready to adapt to the defenses we have erected.

Read the whole article here.

London: The Latest in a String of Al Qaeda Plots Against Airlines

By Zachary Abuza

The London plot is simply the latest in a concerted effort to target airliners, something that Al Qaeda and its affiliates know would have a crippling global impact. In statement by Osama bin Laden issued in early October 2002, he warned: “We will target the nodes of your economy.” The global aviation industry is clearly front and center in Al Qaeda’s targeting.

• In 1994-1995 Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed plotted to down 11-12 US jetliners over the Pacific in what is now known as the Bojinka Plot. Although a test run worked when a bomb aboard a jetliner detonated forcing the pilot to make an emergency landing in Okinawa, the plot went awry when Ramzi Yousef and an accomplice Hakim Murad set the nitro-glycerine on fire.

• In 2001, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed began planning a second phase of 9/11 that would target the West Coast of the United States with Jetliners from Asia. This plot was put on hold by the Al Qaeda leadership.

• 22 December 2001 Richard Reid’s plot to blow up a jetliner with a shoe bomb – a mixture of high explosives and TATP, failed.

• On 27 November 2003, English authorities recovered a similar shoe bomb from Sajid Badat, a co-conspirator of Richard Reid.

• In 2004, Philippine Police raided an Abu Sayyaf safehouse in Manila where they found a number of small bombs comprised of C4 melted down with I think kerosene and injected into toothpaste tubes and shampoo bottles. Philippine intelligence officials believed these bombs were intended for use on airplanes.

• In September 2004, US officials intercepted another shoe bomb at California postal facility, sent from Southeast Asia.

British Authorities Arrest Terrorists Planning to Bomb Airliners Headed to U.S. But Visa Waiver Program Still Alive & Well

By Michael Cutler

Even as FBI and ICE special agents are on the hunt for the remaining 8 Egyptian students who were among the original group of 11 who failed to show up at a school that they were admitted into the United States to attend, a breaking story out of England has captured the world's attention. It may well be that the Egyptian students who have gone missing among us in the United States are not involved with terrorism. It may be that they are not a threat to our safety, but then, nothing is certain other than the fact that the "All clear" has most certainly not been sounded.

International travel has been dealt a severe blow as flights have been canceled and extraordinary measures are being taken around the world to try to thwart any possible terrorist attack that involved the use of liquid explosives that some 21 alleged members of al Qaeda were planning to use to blow a number of jet airliners out of the sky.

Out of a very obvious concern for security, airline passengers are being told that they cannot bring any liquids such as shampoo and other toiletries on board an airliner. Additionally, no carry-on luggage will be permitted. These tough new rules formulated in response to this newest threat to airline safety are making airline travel less attractive and more uncomfortable. The delays are wreaking havoc on airline schedules and, no doubt, will increase the cost of doing business to the airline industry that is feeling the pinch of the soaring cost of fuel.

What is amazing to me, however, is the simple fact that the Visa Waiver Program is alive and well. Under the provisions of the Visa Waiver Program aliens from some 26 countries are able to come to the United States without first applying for and receiving a visa from United States consular officials. I have been told by my friends on Capitol Hill that the continuation of this program is attributable to the concerns of the travel industry, the hospitality industry and the other businesses that depend on international travel for a substantial component of their corporate income. They fear that a visa requirement will discourage the travel that they are dependent upon for profit.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that some 3.5 million illegal aliens in the United States did not run the border but rather violated the terms of their admission in the United States. They either over-stayed the period of time for which they were admitted, got a job they were not entitled to take under the immigration laws, or committed other such violations of law. Among these illegal aliens are those who entered the United States. Richard Reid, the so-called "Shoe Bomber" was a British subject who was able to board an airliner and seek entry into the United States without first applying for and receiving a visa to come to the United States. So, while we are all forced to remove our shoes before boarding an airliner to make certain we are not concealing a bomb or other weapon in our shoes, the Visa Waiver Program continues.

London Airline Bombing Plot News (last update at 9:15 pm ET)

By Andrew Cochran

British authorities have been tracking the plot for months, and the arrests were made "when they learned several of the men had booked flights to the U.S. in the next several days, for apparent trial runs." The plot is walked back to Karachi, Pakistan. See the ABC News story on Matiur Rahman, key Al Qaeda operative who might have planned this operation. Also on ABC News site: Three alleged ringleaders have been identified; two recently traveled to Pakistan and later received money wired to them from Pakistan, reportedly to purchase tickets for the suicide bombers. Sources identify the three, now in custody, as Rashid Rauf, Mohammed al-Ghandra, and Ahmed al Khan. Fox News at 3 pm ET:"British authorities are 'urgently' seeking the arrests of up to 10 more suspects in the terrorist plot uncovered early Thursday morning to blow up U.S.-bound flights with liquid explosives carried onto planes via carry-on luggage." Twenty-four main suspects are now in custody. Fox News again: "(A)n Islamic militant arrested near the Afghan-Pakistan border several weeks ago provided a lead that played a role in "unearthing the plot," that helped authorities arrest suspects in Britain." AP reports that the were targeting as many as 10 flights, and "plotters hoped to stage a dry run within two days," and "the actual attack would have followed within days." Time Magazine: "(A) knowledgeable American official says U.S. intelligence provided London authorities with intercepts of the group's communications." (That would probably be the NSA surveillance program.)

Michelle Malkin's and Brendan Loy's blogs included links to many stories overnight on this plot. See Walid Phares' post on this plot with his early analysis and incisive questions, and Evan Kohlmann's post today on Al Qaeda's use of liquid explosives for airliners. Here is the statement by the Homeland Security Department on the raised threat level to Severe, or Red, for commercial flights originating in the UK bound for the United States, with the threat raised to Orange for all flights within or bound for the US. MSNBC: "Senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News that the plot was on British officials’ radar for about two weeks and that several of the people involved had been monitored for several months when this plot came into view," and "Two U.S. counterterrorism officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the terrorists had targeted United, American and Continental airlines. A U.S. intelligence official said the plotters had hoped to target flights to major airports in New York, Washington and California." Other news sources also identified British Airways as a target. All commentary points to the similarity to the failed Al Qaeda Bojinka plot in 1995 to blow up airliners. Fox News: "A senior U.S. counterterrorism official said authorities believe dozens of people — possibly as many as 50 — were involved in the plot." Time Magazine: "The FBI-DHS report next warns law enforcement agencies about the two peroxide-based liquid explosive that could be used in a future attack against the U.S.--triacetone triperoxide (TATP) or hexamethylene triperoxide diamine (HMTD)."

Press conference with DHS Secretary Chertoff, Att. Gen. Gonzales, & FBI Director Mueller at 8 am ET: Well-planned and well-advanced plot with significant number of operatives - very concrete steps underway and suspects had accumulated capabilities to carry out plot - british authorities pursued this for some time but in last two weeks, focus on US targets appeared and plan appeared to have accelerated - "quite close" to execution phase - no indication of US plotters who would have intersected with UK plotters - would not give a number of airliners but "multiple" - shortly before arrests, suspects focused on UK-US routes - can't say whether 9/11 anniversary a factor or whether they would have waited that long - explosives designed into beverages and other liquids, electronics, and other common objects, with possibility of bringing benign components onboard and then assembling them - "quite sophisticated" - will not discuss suspects' nationalities now, but this group was "very skilled and very capable" - suggestive of Al Qaeda plot but not certain and reminiscent of 1995 plot (Bojinka) - arrests have significantly disrupted the threat but investigation ongoing in UK and here - no liquids or gels allowed in carry-on baggage.

NBC News' Lisa Myers reported that one or more suspects had traveled to Pakistan, where they received some training. MSNBC's Bob Windrem reported that two persons were arrested in Pakistan in connection with this plot, most of the suspects are of Pakistani origin (but all suspects are British nationals), and Pakistani intel services assisted UK agencies in the investigation (also reported in the London Times and confirmed by Pakistani authorities). He also reports multiple plotters would have boarded each aircraft with components combined inflight. The plotters looked for flights online in the past few weeks, leading UK investigators to move towards the arrests. ABC News: They "planned to conceal their liquid or gel explosives inside a modified sports beverage drink container and trigger the device with the flash from a disposable camera."

"US News & World Reports" reports that "At least some of the suspects had ties to those involved in the July 7, 2005, coordinated bombings on the London subways" and "Terrorists plotting to blow up American planes headed from the United Kingdom to the United States were planning to smuggle hydrogen peroxide based improvised liquid/slurry explosives in modified sports drinks bottles."

President Bush at 11:50 am ET: "We are safer than we were prior to 9/11," but we're obviously not completely safe because people still plot against us. "It's a mistake to believe there is no threat aginst the United States."

Walid Phares on MSNBC this morning: Biggest attack network in history of Al Qaeda - number of jihadists has grown from 1 shoe bomber to 7 in London attacks to at least 21, with base in UK. This would have required a support network of over 100, perhaps 150. AQ leaders have been threatening attacks in their statements for months, indicating their involvement in planning and execution.

Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC: AQ training camps near Pak-Afghan border used for 7/7 bombers. This plot "smacks of Al Qaeda through and through," due to the number of people involved and the sophistication of the explosives. Two kinds of Al Qaeda splinter groups: "wannabes" and actual affiliates (official or unofficial) - one of the latter announced alliance with Al Qaeda last week (see my post on the Egyptian Islamic Group, aka Gamaa Islamiya).

Magnus Ranstorp is quoted by MSNBC that this “could very well have been an attempt at ’the Big One.”’

Lorenzo Vidino reminded me of this story from London a few months ago: "Abu Hamza fanatics are urging fresh suicide attacks on passenger jets, using mini-bombs in pens and disposable cameras. The call is aired on an website run by supporters of the jailed hook-handed cleric. It recommends the use of a high-powered explosive dubbed Mother of Satan, which is of the same type used by the July 7 bombers.

See Bill Roggio's post on the use of technology to reduce the risk of attacks, including at airports.

CT Blog Experts on "Homegrown" UK Islamic Terrorists

By Andrew Cochran

CT Blog Contributing Experts have written often on "homegrown" Islamic terrorists in the UK, especially since the July 7, 2005 London attacks. Here are links to some of those posts (links in their posts might be outdated, and punctuation anomalies are due to the move from the old website):

"Steven Emerson Interviews Melanie Phillips, "Londonistan" Author, on London Bombings Anniversary" on July 7, 2006

Olivier Guitta: "Londonistan is alive and kicking" on October 19, 2005

Zeyno Baran: "Stop Tolerating Intolerance" on August 8, 2005

"Michael Cutler: How Many British Bombers Might Have Come Here Without a Visa?" (a question of relevance again today) on July 30, 2005

Evan Kohlmann: "Where do Homegrown British Suicide Bombers Come From?" on July 13, 2005, and "Where do Homegrown British Suicide Bombers Come From? Part II" on July 22, 2005

My post, "Omar Bakri Mohammed, 'the godfather of British terrorism'" on July 23, 2005

Walid Phares: "Jihad Leads to Leeds" on July 17, 2005, and Walid with "London's Jihad Raid" on July 10, 2005

Victor Comras: "Tracking the London Bombers: Follow the Money If You Can!" on July 12, 2005

"Steven Emerson on British permissiveness towards Islamic radicals & on sleeper cells in U.S." on July 11, 2005

Bill West: "Euro-Jihadists and More" on July 8, 2005

Again

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

In 1995 I was flying back to the US from Bangkok via Tokyo when airport authorities turned our plane back from the runway, took us into a room where they told us to empty our carry-ons and confiscated all liquids. Growing mountains of contact lens solution, shaving cream, hand lotion, perfume, toothpaste, shampoo and deodorant filled the room. Some passengers were strip searched behind screens and individuals traveling with babies were made to taste the baby formula before letting them move on. This just a small consequence of the attempted Operation Bojinka as described in Evan Kohlmann’s post. Like we take off our shoes today, this may become standard practice.

While we do not know yet who is behind this plot, Al Qaeda and its affiliates have a history of trying to rectify their failures. After being nabbed at a Bin-Ladin guest house in Pakistan in 1995, Ramzi Yousef was being transported by helicopter to lower Manhattan, as they flew over the World Trade Center, one of his FBI escorts pointed out the buildings to him and commented that they were still standing to which Yousef replied: 'It wouldn't be if I had enough money and enough explosives.' Six years later they apparently did.

One positive development in potentially stopping the cash flows to such operations might be yesterday’s announcement by Swiss authorities that they will provide U.S. investigators with bank account details. Switzerland’s highest court finally approved a 2002 request by the U.S. Attorney’s Office of the Eastern District of Virginia. The request was part of an investigation into some 100 charitable organizations "which are providing by means of complex financial transactions support to terrorist operations."

Al-Qaida's Use of "Liquid Bombs" Targeting Airliners

By Evan Kohlmann

Though for some, news of a reported Al-Qaida plot to down multiple commercial airliners with liquid explosives may sound exotic and unusual, in fact, U.S. authorities have been aware of such a threat from Al-Qaida affiliates for over a decade.

In 1995, when U.S. and Philippine security services uncovered a plot by 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef and his uncle 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to bomb over a dozen U.S. airliners simultaneously over the Pacific Ocean [Operation Bojinka], they quickly moved in and arrested their co-conspirators. One of the detained men, trained commercial pilot Abdel Hakim Murad, described Ramzi Yousef's plans in detail -- including his intention to travel to "France, Egypt, and Algeria after the activities here in the Philippines. The purpose was to train those Muslim brothers thereat, on using a Casio watch as a timing device, chemical mixtures to compound bombs, and to share his expertise in eluding detection on an airport's x-ray machine, and eventually smuggling [onboard] this liquid chemical bombs. Furthermore, France has a lot of Algerians staying and that these Egyptians and Algerians ha[ve] no experience on making these bombs and [do] not know the basics of smuggling liquid bombs through the airport."

Eleven years later, we once again return to the same threat to commercial aviation posed by liquid explosives. Only now, it would appear that the fabrication of such high-tech terrorist weapons by Al-Qaida operatives inside Western Europe is no longer an insurmountable challenge.

London: The "Shoe Bomber Factory" again?

By Walid Phares

Quick reaction: The British security reports about a plot to destroy airliners traveling from London to the US and the decision by UK authorities to ban passengers hand bags on board brings back the whole question of the "factory" again, an issue I have been tiredly raising with legislators and officials on both sides of the Atlantic: From shoes to hand bags the Jihadists are not letting go of their morbid fantasy: bleeding the skies over the Atlantic. While most investigation will direct itself on the "hand bag" weapon in the next few hours and probably days, the larger question on the mind of Jihadism analysts will certainly be: where do these Jihadists come from and how come there are more of them?

For, bypassing the security threat these potential perpetrators have created, with all the public, managerial, intelligence and logistical consequences, the questions I would raise immediately for global reflection are as follows:

Israeli Cabinet Votes to Push Deeper into Southern Lebanon

By Bill Roggio

The Israeli Cabinet vote on the authorization for the Israeli Defense Force to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon highlights the government's lack of a cohesive plan at the war's outset and the hesitation to take the fight directly to Hezbollah on the ground. At the start of the war, the initial plan was to establish a 1-2 kilometer buffer zone and patrol southern Lebanon via air. This morphed into a 6-8 kilometer buffer, which was basically the posture of the Israeli Defense Force up to the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2002. Hezbollah's continuous shelling of northern Israel has shown the limitations of these limited incursions.

Haaretz reports the plan authorizes "troops to push at least up to the Litani River some 30 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border," and in some cases to operate beyond the river boundary. The Israeli government is looking for relief from the short range Katyusha rockets. The Israelis have learned there are limitations with using an air campaign to defeat a well trained, entrenched and motivated enemy. Israeli forces are having difficulties with Hezbollah missile teams just a few kilometers from the border after 4 weeks of fighting.

But the proposed expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon is still on hold. The Israeli government is signaling it is seeking a diplomatic solution, and is delaying back the ground offensive to allow diplomacy to run its course. "The offensive would not begin for two or three days so as not interfere with ongoing efforts to broker a cease-fire at the United Nations, said one minister in the meeting," according to Haaretz.

Counterterrorism Disorganization: More problems

By Michael Kraft

Nearly five years after 9/11 and eight years after the devastating attacks against the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the U.S. Government is still struggling to develop an organizational structure that will counter terrorism as effectively as possible.

Many of the problems were outlined in front page article in Wednesday’s Washington Post today headlined “A Fight against Terrorism—and Disorganization." Although lengthy and well researched the Washington Post story could only scratch the surface. It could not and did not include many interesting “additional the devil is in the details,” including a scathing Senate Appropriations Committee Report that I will describe to illustrate some of the problems.

The pity is, some of problems could be corrected relatively easily by better coordination, firm leadership and head bashing to prevent duplication and turf battles. Other problems involving proper funding for specific on-going programs could be resolved by Congress and OMB supporting the counterterrorism rhetoric with proper funding. The problem areas include the federal government’s counterterrorism research and development programs, a subject that Bill Roggio discussed in his post Wednesday.

For more than two decades, there has been a very intensive U.S Government counterterrorism program to develop better equipment to prevent terrorist attacks, cope with those that take place, and help identify and apprehend the terrorists.

The three categories of federal research are: (1) Projects coordinated through the interagency Technical Support Working Group (TSWG), which is headed by the Departments of State and Defense, (2) those funded and coordinated by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and (3) projects conducted by individual agencies primarily for their specialized needs. The private sector and universities also initiative research on their own and sometimes seek additional funding from the government for further development.

The Interesting Role of The Muslim Brotherhood in the Lebanese Conflict

By Douglas Farah

The Muslim Brotherhood, through its chief spokesperson Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi, is working overtime to try to reconcile Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims, particularly in the efforts to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. This puts the international Muslim Brotherhood in direct opposition to the stance taken by Zarqawi in Iraq and other Sunni armed groups that condemn the Shi'ite as heretics and infidels.

This role of mediation for the greater good of Islam-in this case, to support Hezbollah in Lebanon-is a hallmark of the Iqwan's role in the Islamist world. As my colleague Zeyno Baran pointed out, the Lebanese Brothers are making known that they, as Sunnis, are fighting beside Hezbollah with "military combatant units." As she correctly points out, it is the first time on record that the Iqwan have publicly acknowledged having an armed branch that is operational.

How the Sunni and Shi'ite Islamists, with similar agendas and sharply different theologies, react to the Lebanese crisis will be crucial in setting the course for future Islamist armed action.

There is no shortage of people on both sides wanting to attack the other. What makes Qaradawi's statements stand out is that he not only speaks for the Brotherhood, but like Yousef Nada and others, is welcome in Saudi Arabia and Tehran. If there is a way for the Sunnis to become larger players in the Lebanese conflict and any that bleed out of that war, it will be thanks to the Brotherhood's efforts. My full blog is here.

Recovered From "Lebanon Trauma," Israel Decides to Cleanse Lebanon

By Zeyno Baran

Israel's Security Cabinet voted today to send 30,000 ground troops deeper into Lebanon, up to the Litani River, which is about 18 miles from the border. This is a clear indication that Israel has finally gotten over its "Lebanon trauma”, their psychological reaction to their 18-year long occupation of southern Lebanon following their invasion of this country in 1982. Today’s decision was reached after many hours of discussions, but with a clear resolution that the area has to be cleansed from Hizbollah. There will be many lives lost on both sides, but this is, as I have been told over and over again this week in Israel, an existential battle for Israel--one it cannot afford to lose.

Israeli analysts and military leaders believe that Hizbollah’s leader Nasrallah has made a severe strategic mistake by kidnapping the Israelis soldiers in July (in fact, he said so himself). Nasrallah seems to have calculated that the Israeli response would be limited, partly because of its new and inexperienced government. Instead, Israel destroyed most of Hizbollah’s weaponry through its superior air force, and despite initial hesitation, they have finally come around to responding with their ground troops. While Israel has so far been losing the informational war, it has finally begun to tell its side of the story; if it manages to widely circulate the footage of Hizbollah members shooting rockets from their living rooms and demonstrate how houses have been widely used as safehouses, it will be in a much better place to explain why so many civilians have been killed in Lebanon.

Anti-Israeli Cyberterrorist Attacks Planned for Tomorrow

By Evan Kohlmann

Participants on key Arabic-language Al-Qaida chat forums on the Internet have announced their intent to launch collective cyberterrorist attacks tomorrow, August 10, aimed at interrupting or denying service to other pro-Israeli websites--namely the "Internet Haganah" cyberterror watchdog site run by Aaron Weisburd. When I asked him what he thought of the purported threat, Aaron expressed strong skepticism that these efforts would produce any noticeable disruption in access to his site. He replied, "They have a reasonable chance of slowing down the responsiveness of one domain of the ten associated with the Internet Haganah web site."

More importantly, these would-be attacks represent part of a growing wave of similar defacement and denial of service attacks targeting various American bloggers and pro-Western websites.

Daily Standard: Strange Allies

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have previously written (on this blog and elsewhere) about the seemingly growing alliance between Islamic radicals and the neo-Nazi right. Today I have a review at the Daily Standard of George Michael's The Enemy of My Enemy: The Alarming Convergence of Militant Islam and the Extreme Right, which explores this connection in great detail.

An excerpt:

In reality, this peculiar convergence of interests isn't new. There have been four distinct phases of cooperation between militant Islam and the extreme right, stretching back to Germany's Third Reich and World War II. During this time, much of the Muslim world sympathized with the Axis alliance, and Muslim Brotherhood members even prayed for the defeat of the Allies during their meetings.

Michael notes that the Muslim world's sympathy with the Axis alliance was "best exemplified by the cordial relationship between Hitler and the grand mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini." Although al-Husseini's followers had already been involved in one anti-Jewish rampage by 1922, the British appointed him grand mufti that year. During the 1930s, as the Nazi government implemented a number of ordinances abridging the rights of Jewish citizens, al-Husseini lent his support to the German project and requested reciprocal assistance in his own fight against the Jews. Eventually, as World War II progressed, al-Husseini helped organize a Bosnian Muslim division of the Waffen SS, and propagandized for the Nazi cause by writing an anti-Semitic tract entitled Islam and the Jews.

The second phase of cooperation between militant Islam and the extreme right began after Hitler's defeat. As Nazi Germany crumbled, Hitler's erstwhile officers had to flee to new homes lest they face prosecution for their role in the regime's atrocities. Given the Muslim world's support for Germany, it was natural that many of Hitler's men went to the Middle East. There, out of work Nazis proved useful to their host countries by helping develop their militaries and intelligence agencies.

After Gamal Abdel Nasser became Egypt's president, for example, a number of Nazis were given prominent positions in his government. Nazi commando Otto Skorzeny trained thousands of Egyptians in guerilla and desert warfare, and even organized early Palestinian terrorist forays into Israel and the Gaza Strip in the mid-1950s. Johann von Leers, who had been a high-ranking assistant to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels, produced material for Nasser attacking the United States and Israel. Von Leers even converted to Islam during this period, adopting the name Oman Amin von Leers. Corresponding with a fellow fascist, von Leers opined that "if my nation had got Islam instead of Christianity we should not have had all the traitors we had in World War II."

Read the whole review here.

Thai Insurgency Updates

By Zachary Abuza

The headlines out of southern Thailand have focused on 1-2 August’s spate of violence, 125 incidences in one night, including 70 bombings and arson attacks. These included a bombing of a rail line that killed three police and wounded another and a Buddhist temple that was destroyed. There have been few breakthroughs. Five suspects were arrested, but a far cry from the number of people involved in such attacks. The government is still unable to cope with the growing violence. Since January 2004, more than 1,300 have been killed and several thousands more wounded.

In other news, this week saw an assassination attempt on a senator, as well as an attempt on a prominent mayor’s son and a former MP’s sister, all Muslim. These are the first concerted attempts by the militants to systematically target members of the Muslim political elite and their families. The governor of Narathiwat province stated in the press that the militants had dispatched 5-man hit teams to each of the three provinces to target the elites, though the army denied the reports.

Finally, in a major report filed today, the BBC aired a spokesman from PULO who did not discount the possibility of carrying out terrorist attacks in Bangkok. “Maybe we will target other areas, like Bangkok or Phuket - I can't guarantee it won't happen.” This threat should be guarded with caution: PULO is all but a defunct organization. While the violence in southern Thailand since 2004 has been considerable, there is very little evidence that PULO has anything to do with it. Most of the violence has been perpetrated by the Barisan Revolusin Nasional Coordinate (BRN-C), the Gerakan Mujihidin Islami Pattani (GMIP), Runda Kumpularm Kecil (RKK), and elements of New PULO. The insurgency, with its distinctive Islamist overtones, has little to do with the secular and moribund PULO.

Update on Southeast Asian Jihadis Joining the Anti-Israeli Fray

By Zachary Abuza

On 20 July I wrote about a press statement given by Suaib Didu, the head of the radical GPI and the ASEAN Muslim Youth Movement, who announced that some 217 Southeast Asian Muslims had pledged to travel abroad to fight Israel. Another radical grouping, Habib Rizieq’s Islamic Defender’s front (FPI) likewise announced that it was sending some 90 militants. At the time I noted that it could be bluster. While both are zealous organizations, their historical record in sending people to Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere has been mixed. This case is different in that it does involve Israel and the Holy Land, but as I stated at the time, we simply do not know if any organization, such as Hezbollah, was supporting them. It is hard to imagine that they would anything to Hezbollah that has now lasted almost three weeks longer than the Arab armies in the 6-Day War. What we should be concerned about is their ability to network with foreign jihadis and their use of external events to justify radicalism at home. In short, this could be a boon to recruitment by JI and other militant groups.

The story has gained considerable traction in the past 5 days.

Last week, Suaib Didu announced that some 3,000 Indonesians had pledged to martyr themselves in the fight against Israel. But in a public ceremony in Kalimantan, only 100 young men or so pledged to martyr themselves. The media especially in Australia jumped on this fearful that 3,000 suicide bombers were on their way. Again, this seems overblown both in terms of their numbers and capabilities.

Didu did reveal that several of the recruits had come from the conflict zones in Central Sulawesi and the Malukus, the scene of intense sectarian bloodletting in 1998-2001, and an important recruiting ground for JI. 22 of the 217 had trained in Afghanistan according to Didu.

The threats were, however, there: “If, after the 48-hour deadline, the aggressions continue, we can't be held responsible if there are suicide bombings in countries that support the aggressions of the Israeli military, if it is America, Australia or other countries… They will bomb various places, various vital installations overseas such as in Israel and in any country that supports the aggression of Israel and the United States.”

On 8 August, Abu Bakar Bashir’s Mejelis Mujihidin Indonesia announced that it had 500 volunteers who were ready to be dispatched to Lebanon and Palestinian territory. MMI’s director Irfan S. Awwas however, acknowledged that the volunteers were going in an individual capacity and that the organization was not providing financial support for the $1500-1800 cost of traveling to the Middle East. This alone is a major deterrent.

Didu claimed that his men had received financial support from “backers in Malaysia,” Indonesian donors and Indonesian businessmen in Australia.

The FPI, which claimed to have 90 recruits, lowered its number to 30, though it claims that 20 of its men are now being trained by Hezbollah, but this cannot be independently confirmed.

Again, there is still no proof of either Southeast Asians in Lebanon or Palestine engaged in militancy; or planning attacks within Southeast Asia. The threat should be taken seriously.

The Indonesian government’s response has not been terribly reassuring: Though the police spokesman Anton Alam Bachru said, “We will stop them if they want to go to war,” he wrote off the threat: “It's just emotional speaking from them.” The Indonesian Foreign Minister states that the government has no way to prevent militants from traveling abroad: "We are a country with a system in which people are extremely free to travel overseas and no exit permit is required. Therefore we don't have a method to prevent people [from traveling].”

11 AWOL Egyptian students being sought in the U.S.

By Michael Cutler

Today we now know of 11 young men from Egypt who have gone missing among us. They are joining a large number of other illegal aliens who have gone missing in our midst, hiding in plain sight. I hope that when we next hear about them it will not be in conjunction with another terrorist attack.

Perhaps these students from a country that has a very serious terrorism problem simply went sightseeing. Perhaps they are driving taxis and will go home to Egypt when they have had their fill of New York's rush hour. Or, perhaps, just maybe, they are hiding in plain sight while they await instructions to participate in a terrorist attack.

Hizballah UAV Further Illustrates Iranian Support

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The Mirsad-1 UAV. Click image to view.

On Monday night, the IAF's F-16 fighters shot down a Hizballah unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) ten kilometers off the coast of Acre. The drone reportedly had the capacity to carry 90 pounds of explosives.

Hizballah's drone was a Misrad-1, which is the same model as the Iranian Mohajer. It is also the same model UAV that Hizballah previously launched twice: in November 2004 and April 2005. In late 2004, Stratfor stated, "European intelligence sources say Hezbollah has acquired two to three UAVs from Iran . . . . In addition, Hezbollah has gathered an international team of engineers and scientists to equip the UAVs with a weapons system, enabling it to use the aircraft for a limited combat role as well as reconnaissance. Some reports indicate that later versions of the Iranian Mohajer can be equipped to fire chemical weapons." And Israeli sources provided similar analysis in 2004, stating that "Iran supplied Hezbollah with 8 such drones, and over the past two years some 30 Lebanese operatives have undergone training at Revolutionary Guards' bases near Isfahan to fly similar aircraft."

The drone launch comes atop ongoing revelations about the degree to which Iran has managed to build up Hizballah's deadly arsenal. Writing in the Weekly Standard in late July, counterterrorism consultant Dan Darling provided a detailed analysis of Hizballah's arsenal:

Hezbollah has deployed a range of extremely sophisticated weapons against Israel. The most notable has been the Iranian C-802 Noor (Tondar) variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile that was used against an Israeli gunship off the Lebanese coast. Four Israeli sailors were killed, and the gunship was put out of commission.

The Associated Press reports that "Iran is believed to have supplied Hezbollah with up to 120 Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets, with ranges of 22 miles and 45 miles respectively," noting that it was a Fajr-3 that is thought to have been responsible for an attack on Haifa that killed 8 civilians. More recently, Israeli military officials have sought to destroy sites in Lebanon believed to house long-range Zelzal missiles of Iranian manufacture that they suspect are capable of hitting Tel Aviv.

CBN News analyst John Waage also noted that "[t]he Russian made Metis M anti-tank missile, supplied by Iran, is among the most deadly weapons in the Hezbollah arsenal. At least 44 Israeli soldiers have been killed by the missiles, which can punch through the steel of Israel’s highly-regarded Merkava tanks."

One cannot understand the current conflict in Lebanon without understanding the degree that Iran has sponsored Hizballah and built up its arsenal. And just as Iran is the key to understanding the present realities of the conflict, so too is its sponsorship a critical factor in understanding what Hizballah's future will be after a ceasefire is eventually reached.

Reduce the Risk of Suicide Terrorism in the U.S. Through Technology

By Bill Roggio

Numerous CT Blog posts have discussed Hezbollah’s fundraising activities in the U.S. and the Americas (e.g., Douglas Farah, Steven Emerson’s staff, and Dennis Lormel). Moreover, Steven Emerson, Walid Phares, and Olivier Guitta have already warned that Iran and Hezbollah could strike preemptively anytime in the U.S. and Europe. So how can we prevent, or at least reduce the risk of, suicide bombings in the U.S.?

The recent experience with martyrdom operations in Iraq and elsewhere adds urgency to the search for innovative preventive solutions. In addition to cultivating sufficient intelligence, we have to employ technological innovation to defend areas against suicide terrorists. Of paramount concern will be critical infrastructure facilities, symbolic targets, and high-population density enclosures (such as office and government buildings) at which such attacks are most likely to occur.

While the tactical advantages of suicide terrorism ensure that successful attacks are never 100% preventable, striving to stay at least close to terrorists’ tactical innovations must be a priority. Currently, battlefield and non-military applied technologies in use in foreign countries to stop terrorists from entering a potential target area are underutilized in the U.S. For example, active millimeter wave technology, with no x-ray involved, is currently deployed across the world in both military and civilian capacities: at the London airport, the Baghdad courthouse where Saddam Hussein was tried, Israeli and U.S. military checkpoints, and a border-crossing in Israel. This technology is a proven, safe and efficient methodology for detecting the variety of non-metallic components (i.e. “DEET” explosives) that comprise the modern suicide device, by generating holographic images of those screened. But, as yet, this technology hasn't been deployed in any U.S. airport.

U.S. authorities should also strongly consider the deployment of technologies which would automatically enable the extraction and collection of explosives residue from carry-on luggage during the airport security screening process. Over 4 billion pieces of carry-on and checked luggage are screened each year worldwide, but existing solutions are still labor-intensive, slow, and cannot handle the expected increase in the number of bags.

The movement of tactical explosives expertise from the Middle East to Europe and Southeast Asia proves that the attempted use of such hard-to-detect explosives here should be expected. It's imperative that U.S. counterterrorism and homeland security officials employ our technological expertise to leverage the input from the intel agencies.

Walid Phares Interviewed on Lebanon & Jihadists' Aims

By Andrew Cochran

In an excellent article titled, "East and West must beware new Barbarians at the gates," British journalist Allister Heath interviews Walid Phares about the implications of the current situation in Lebanon for the jihadist movement. Some excerpts follow, and you can read the entire article here (also linked on the "CT Blog Experts in the Media" page):

Walid Phares, the brilliant scholar of terrorism, lived through the worst of times in Lebanon, the country where he was born. At the height of the civil war, he would make the perilous journey out of Lebanon in flimsy vessels that were easy targets for Syria’s long-range missiles. “In the 1980s, we used commercial ships, with no Navy escort, sometimes under direct artillery action,” he recalls....

The emergence of current strands of Islamic extremism long predates the creation of Israel or the Cold War, Phares explains. He peppers the conversation with Arabic to make his case, which is that today’s jihadist movements see themselves as a continuation of the Islamic state and strive for its reestablishment within in its old borders.

The abolition of the Caliphate by Ataturk in 1924 freed jihadists from an ultimate Islamic authority for the first time since the seventh century. This unleashed the Saudi Wahhabis, and triggered the creation of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. The Afghan battlefield produced a convergence into al-Qaeda, which soon became a rival school of its own. All these groups compete over the best way to re-establish the Sunni Caliphate, held up as the solution to the Muslim world’s problems. Meanwhile, the Iranian revolution saw the rise of a Shia jihadism; it too seeks leadership of Islam and to wage war against the infidels...

“Hezbollah’s plan for the Lebanese army is to drag it into a fight with Israel, to destroy it,” says Phares. “The options are very limited: either Hezbollah will dominate Lebanon, or the latter will disarm Hezbollah. Anything in between would be a waste of time. The international community must form a multinational force to assist the Lebanese army”.

IDF Commando Raid South of Tyre; Abandoning the Litani?

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view.

Israeli Defense Force commandos have conducted another behind the lines raid in Hezbollah territory, this time in the town of Ras al-Biyada (Al Bayyadah on the map), which sits on the Lebanese coast about five kilometers north of the Israeli border. Reports indicate 30 to 40 commandos were inserted by helicopter near Ras al-Biyada, the target being an apartment complex. Five Lebanese are reported to have been killed and 8 IDF commandos were wounded. The Ras Al-Biyada raid follows the raid in Tyre and Baalbek, as well as 15 other special operations missions behind enemy lines.

The IDF special operations missions in Hezbollah territory come with great risk, and demonstrate Israel's abilities to hit Hezbollah with ground forces away from the front lines. These missions have a psychological impact on both Hezbollah and the Israelis.

But the Ras Al-Biyada raid also demonstrates just how shallow the Israeli penetration is in southern Lebanon. Ras Al-Biyad is but 5 kilometers from the border, yet the IDF had to perform a helicopter insertion of commandos in a region where there is well developed road system running northward up the coast. Hezbollah indicates they clashed with the IDF in Shama to the east Al-Biyada, but this could not be independently confirmed. Clashes have been reported in Bint Jubayl, Tayybayah, Hula, Dibil, and Ayta al Shaba. Israel is said to be in 20 villages and towns along the border. A look at the battle map shows that the IDF appears to be sticking to the 6-8 kilometer buffer zone, and shaping their operations to meet this goal.

The Jerusalem Post reports the "IDF ditches plans to reach Litani River" as the IDF "finished recreating the 10-kilometer-deep security zone Israel held during its 18-year presence in Lebanon which ended in 2000." The Israeli government appears to be banking on a political solution as opposed to striking further at Hezbollah's operational capabilities.

While the IDF initially had planned to send troops north to the Litani River - a line from which officials said it would be easier to prevent rocket attacks - high-ranking military sources told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that due to the mounting diplomatic pressure the plan had been deferred for the time being.

Remains of a Misrad-1 shot down over the Mediterranean Sea near Acre. Click photo to view.

At this point in time it appears the Israeli government has yet to formulate a coherent military strategy to deal with Hezbollah's military organization and their short range and mid range rockets, which continue to rain down of Israeli cities and towns at a rate of 150 to 200 per day. Hezbollah is not only surviving the IDF attacks, it is striking deep inside Israeli territory. This is not going unnoticed in the Muslim and Arab world. hezbollah's prestige grows daily.

Israel can now add armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to the potential Hezbollah threat. The Israeli Air Force shot down a Hezbollah Misrad-1 UAV off the coast of Acre, which is 15 kilometers north of Haifa. The Misrad-1 can carry a 45 kilogram warhead, and although there was speculation this UAV was armed, the Israeli Air Force denied this.

Lebanon's Government is hostage to Hezbollah

By Walid Phares

In an interview with Neil Cavuto on Fox News I argued that Hezbollah will continue to receive supplies and support from Iran via Syria through the Lebanese-Syrian borders, which do not exist. Hezbollah's deadliest and long range weapons are most likely redeployed in the central and northern Bekaa. On the other hand, answering a question, I stated that the only player in this whole equation which is supposed to call on the international community to intervene and would order the Lebanese Army to deploy, is obviously the Lebanese Government. Unfortunately the Seniora cabinet has a gun aimed at its head, and that is Hezbollah. If it had the courage to act, the Government would have ordered all these measures. The concern is, if no multinational force deploys fast, that Hezbollah would crumble this cabinet and form a Government of its own. Click to see video.

Unholy Triangle: Russia Supports Iran which Supports Hezbollah

By Michael Kraft

Buried in the avalanche of news about the Lebanon crisis is an important and negative development in the U.S. government’s relations with Russia over its soft approach to Iran, Hezbollah’s prime backer.

The U.S. Government has imposed sanctions against two Russian companies and five others from North Korea, India and Cuba for transferring equipment that could contribute toward Iran’s development of weapons of mass destruction and of cruise or ballistic missile systems. The Counterterrorism Blog carried a link to the announcement on Friday.

The sanctions were made public Friday against the backdrop of the attempts in the United Nations and elsewhere to curb Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

The sanctions also emerged amid reports that Iran has provided Hezbollah with long-range missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Knowing the bureaucracy, however, the internal U.S. government’s paper work for approving the sanctions and listing them in the Federal Register undoubtedly was initiated long before the reports of the long-range Iranian missiles became general knowledge.

Russian reactions to the sanctions suggested a new low in already chilly relations between the U.S. and Moscow, partly because one of the firms is headed by a close friend of President Vladimir Putin, Reuters said in a report from Moscow today.

The Russian reaction also reflects its continuing rift with the United States over America's more assertive efforts to curb Iran’s drive toward developing nuclear weapons.

The DRC and Uranium for Iran

By Douglas Farah

The Lumbumbashi uranium mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced the uranium that allowed the United States to build its first atomic bombs used against Japan in 1945. Now the Sunday Times is reporting that Iran has been trying to buy large quantities of uranium and smuggle it out through Tanzania. They know because one large shipment was stopped in Tanzania in October 2005 when it was discovered during a routine check. No one knows how many have gotten through.

This again highlights the dangers of stateless areas and failed states in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the enabling of rogue regimes.

Few know what goes on in this area of the DRC, a nation that has been in a perpetual state of conflict for more than a decade. The central government controls little and the armies of neighboring countries, along with armed Congolese warlords, control these mineral-rich areas that operate beyond state supervision. U.S. and European intelligence services are virtually blind in such regions.

It is interesting that North Korea in recent years also attempted to mine uranium from the same abandoned Shinkolobwe mine, supposedly closed in 1961. Two of the most isolated governments in the world finding the same area hospitable to their efforts to acquire vital ingredients for their weapons of mass destruction tells you a lot about the current state of the DRC. My full blog is here.

Doctored Reuters Photo of Beirut and the Manipulation of the Media

By Bill Roggio

“We are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And that we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Ummah.” - Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

Reuters' faked photograph of Beirut burning, by Adnan Hajj. Click to view full size at Little Green Footballs.

Ayman al-Zawahiri's words do not only apply to his al-Qaeda and affiliated groups, but to all terrorist organizations. Terrorists do not employ terror tactics because of their military strength, but because of their military weaknesses; they have no hope of defeating modern militaries on the conventional battlefield. They seek to strike at the strategic weakness of democratic states: public opinion. They seek to erode the public's will to fight terror groups. Terrorist organizations skillfully manipulate the media to propagate their message. And in some instances, the terrorists have willing accomplices within the media. The current war between Israel and Hezbollah provides examples of both media manipulation and accommodation.

Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs provides a visual tutorial of how a Reuters photograph of Beirut is manipulated via PhotoShop. A scene of Beirut is altered, quite crudely, to include smoke plumes where none exist, to magnify Israeli air strikes in the city. Remarkably, as a result of Mr. Johnson and a host of blog's investigations, Reuters has admitted the photograph has been tampered with and will no longer retain the services of Adnan Hajj, the photographer, who admitted to altering the photo (he claims he was trying to remove dust from the image). "As soon as the allegation came to light, the photograph, filed on Saturday 5 August, was removed from the file and a replacement, showing the same scene, was sent. The explanation for the removal was the improper use of photo-editing software," said Moira Whittle, Reuters' head of public relations. That such an obvious fake passed Reuters' editorial staff is disturbing. And there may be more faked photos out there by Adnan Hajj.

The doctored photo is Adnan Hajj's second brush with the blogs this week. Richard North of EU Referendum provides a look at how Hezbollah manipulated the media in the aftermath of the Israeli air strike in the Lebanese town of Qana. This incident was covered by the Jerusalem Post. Initially, 56 civilians were reported killed in Qana, but the number has been revised downward to 28. Mr. North looks at the images from Qana, and identifies what appears to be two Hezbollah operatives posing for the cameras as they shuttle selected child casualties and parade them by the penned up camera crew. One operative is actually photographed in his home, which is filled with photographs of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and has been identified in recovery work in the city of Tyre, again carrying corpses from the bomb scene. Adnan Hajj was one of the photographers at Qana. Reuters denies the photographs at Qana were staged.

Hezbollah also is notorious for providing 'guided tours' of scenes within Beirut. Charlie Moore, a CNN Senior Producer for Anderson Cooper, explains how Hezbollah staged such a tour for the CNN crew, which included a staged ambulance response and canned death to Israel and America chants. Yet there was very little discussion of this and other incidents other than at the CNN and on a weekend talk show. There are no exposes on how Hezbollah manipulates the press.

Hezbollah's propaganda machine and Al Manar, Hezbollah's "media" outlet, receive little to no criticism in the press. In fact, Israeli attempts to shut down Al Manar have been criticized by the International Federation of Journalists, which views Al Manar as a valid news organization, despite the fact the United States has designated it a terrorist entity.

REUTERS' HIJACKING LEBANON'S ANSWER TO THE UN?

By Walid Phares

A few hours after a Franco-American draft for a UN Security Council resolution was released, pro-Hezbollah lobbies and allies launched a campaign to hijack the response of Lebanon to the United Nations. As noted by seasoned observers the campaign started at the top with an alert release by News Agency Reuters written by Lin Noueihed. The article, put out early Sunday has reached the four corners of the Globe and its title has framed the position of the Lebanese people in a "no" to the UN expected resolution. Amazingly enough, Lin Noueihid titles her release "Lebanon rejects draft UN resolution." But when you read the release you realize that the "representative" of all of Lebanon in the eyes of the Reuters reporter is no one other than pro-Syrian, Hezbollah ally, Nabih Berri, the leader of Shiite Movement Amal.

Noueihid wrote that "Lebanon rejects a draft U.N. Security Council resolution to end 26 days of fighting because it would allow Israeli forces to remain on Lebanese soil, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Sunday." Basing her entire report on one of the most powerful supporters of the Syrian occupation and who heads a militia allied to Hezbollah, Noueihid gives Berri the full power of the credibility of Reuters. This title will find itself printed from Yahoo to the last local newsletter in the Fidji islands. Evidently, local editors around the world trust Reuters as they trust the Red Cross, and will conclude that indeed "Lebanon" has rejected a UN resolution, while in reality, it is Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis that rejected it, and unfortunately a Reuters writer framed it otherwise.

Noueihid wrote "Slamming the French-U.S. draft as biased, Berri said it ignored a seven-point plan presented by Lebanon that calls for an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the return of all displaced civilians among other things." He added that ""Lebanon, and all of Lebanon, rejects any resolution that is outside these seven points," said Berri, who has been negotiating on behalf of Hizbollah guerrillas. But leaders of the civil society, NGOs, members of Parliament and cadres from the Cedars Revolution said just the opposite. "The people of Lebanon, those who marched in downtown Beirut on March 14, 2005 are with this resolution" said Toni Nissi, coordinator for UNSCR 1559 in Beirut. "Who represent Lebanon more than the one million and a half Lebanese who demonstrated against the Syrian occupation, for Hezbollah disarming and against the regime of Lahoud and Berri," said Youssef Douiahi, President of the World Council for the Cedars Revolution from Sydney. "We've been on the phones with heads of municipalities and MPs in Lebanon and no one accepts Reuters assumption that war lord Nabih Berri represents Lebanon's response to the UN," said Tom Harb, secretary general of the Committee 1559 . "M Berri's legislative bloc is in the minority. He was unfortunately reelected at the position of the speaker of the house by the legislative majority headed by M Saad Hariri. Surely that was a political mistake but this doesn't give Reuters to frame Lebanon's will and reduce the popular majority of the country to be represented against its will by a militia leader, who by the way was responsible for the hijacking of the TWA airliner in 1985."

Reuter quotes Berri stating that "their resolution will either drop Lebanon into internal strife or will be impossible to implement," which in fact reveals his intents and those of Hezbollah: If the UN resolution is voted Hezbollah and its allies will attack the Lebanese Government and the Cedars Revolution

Reuters wrote that Berri considered the wording of the resolution was loaded against Lebanon. He complained that an international force that would be established by a second U.N. resolution, following an initial resolution establishing a truce, would come under Chapter Seven of the U.N. charter, which authorizes the use of force, but would not necessarily be answerable to the world body. Analysis which confirms reports that Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are poised to take the fight against the United Nations and any international force.

Commenting from Beirut, Human Rights activist and Cedars Revolution Human Rights officer Kamal Batal said the "Reuters framing of Lebanon's answer to the UN is a hijacking of the opinions of millions of Lebanese. The popular majority in Lebanon wants to end the War now and the disbanding of all militias," he said. Analyzing Reuters' release closely George Chaya, Director for the Lebanese Information Office for Latin America in Buenos Aires said "it is not really a coincidence that Lin Nouaihid twisted realities and induced millions of readers around the world into error in perception. From a thorough review of Nouaihid's previous campaigns through Reuters and other media, you can easily see her framings in the Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, Koran affairs in addition to her postings on radical web sites. Nouaihid has all the freedom to express her ideological positions but Reuters credibility as a fair and professional news agency are now damaged."

In fact the Lebanese Government of Fouad Seniora has stated that the UN draft doesn't meet their requirements of a real solution. He told CNN that this draft "is not really adequate and does not really achieve the objective that they have set for themselves." Seniora and his colleagues wanted a stronger UN resolution that would help Lebanon regain its control of its land. Berri's position is different: he is opposed to any UN resolution that would give Lebanon's army international support to disarm the militia.

As I argued in my book Future Jihad, the war of ideas has been raging for years in the media and academia. Lebanon's framing is not new. During the long and terrible wars of Lebanon from 1975 until 2000, writers in news agencies and journalists such as Jonathan Randall, Thierry DesJardins, Robert Fisk and others sculpted the perception of Lebanon at their discretion and often against the thinking process of Lebanon's popular majority.

Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting Fellow with the European Foundation for Democracies.

Co-Editor's Update at 11:25 am ET, August 7: Here is the latest version of the Reuters story by Lin Noueihed, focusing on deaths caused by Israeli air strikes, with minimal coverage of Hezbollah attacks and no mention of Hezbollah's initiation of the conflict. The article says that PM Siniora "demanded a quick ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon." It also includes this language, slightly amended from earlier versions cited in Walid's post: "Opposition from Lebanon caused the United States and France to delay a vote on a U.N. resolution. They may submit a revised text after Security Council consultations later in the day. Lebanon has demanded the U.S.-French draft resolution include a call for an immediate withdrawal of some 10,000 Israeli troops from its soil." A new Associated Press story includes a sharp reduction in the number of civilians killed in an Israeli air strike from 40 to one.
Andrew Cochran

Italian government's pardons free terrorists

By Lorenzo Vidino

Last week the Italian Parliament approved a government-sponsored mass pardon which has led, so far, to the release of more than 5,000 inmates (reportedly half of them illegal immigrants). As predicted by many, some pardoned prisoners committed new crimes within a few hours of their release and ended up in prison again. From a counterterrorism perspective, what is troubling is that a small number of the pardoned prisoners are individuals with proven links to terrorist groups:

Abdelhamid Remadna: designated by the UN, top recruiter for the Abu Doha/GSPC network, worked as a secretary at the infamous Islamic Cultural Institute of Milan, which he used as a base to send hundreds of militants to al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan (I reported dozens of pages of Remadna's phone conversations with top al Qaeda trainers in Afghanistan in my book). Arrested in 2001, was serving a 7-year and 9-month sentence before being pardoned. According to reports in the media, he is currently in an illegal immigrants' detention center awaiting deportation.

Djamel Lounici: Naples-based top leader of the Algerian FIS in Italy, sentenced to 8 years for arms and false documents trafficking in May 2005.

Ahmed Nacer Yacine: Lounici's right-hand man, serving a 4-year and 8-month sentence. Well known to the Italian public for a sermon he gave in September 2001 praising jihad against infidels that was aired by the Italian state television.

Lased Ben Heni: Libyan veteran of Afghanistan involved with GSPC networks in Germany and Northern Italy. Arrested in 2001, Ben Heni was serving a 6 year sentence. After the pardon, Italian authorities attempted to deport him to Germany, but German authorities refused to grant him entry, alleging that his asylum had been revoked. Ben Heni now finds himself in a legal limbo, a complicate situation that Italian authorities have to solve as soon as possible. Yet it is unlikely that many countries will volunteer to host the Libyan, given his radicalism. In March 2001, in fact, Italian authorities taped Ben Heni saying to a fellow militant: “I have made a decision, to fight them [the infidels], but unfortunately when you belong to a group you can’t carry out operations by yourself, at least until you decide to sacrifice yourself [die as martyr], in that case the sheikhs think about it.…A decision must be made, I want to die as a mujahid, there is too much planning; I only ask to fight them, so that I don’t have to answer to anybody." In the same conversation Ben Hedi also expressed his desire to carry out the attack that the GSPC Frankfurt cell failed in December 2000 (allegedly against the Strasbourg Cathedral): "I don’t need an army, but just two people, as long as they have brain and training, especially in the language [i.e., they know how to talk in code], the training must be based on this. They have to be committed and to go ahead without having anything to lose or to gain. Let me complete the operation…I’ll do it like the group in Germany, so at this point all I need is one person and a 10-liter barrel."

Individuals convicted for terrorist activities were specifically excluded from benefiting from the pardon. Yet the four abovementioned men, as other individuals involved in terrorist activities who have been pardoned, had been convicted for common crimes (arms smuggling, document forging), given the impossibility of charging them for terrorism under the old (and now amended) legislation. The Italian government short-sighted move can potentially have serious repercussions on the security not only of Italy, but also of other countries.

New Al Qaeda Tape Announces "Merger" With Egyptian Islamic Group, a.k.a. Gamaa Islamiya

By Andrew Cochran

In an new tape, Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri announces the "merger" of the Egyptian Islamic Group (a.k.a. al-Jamaa al-Islamiya or Gamaa Islamiya or Jamaa Islamiya, not to be confused with the Indonesian Al Qaeda-linked group Jemaah Islamiyah) into Al Qaeda. "We announce to the Islamic nation the good news of the unification of a great faction of the knights of the Gamaa Islamiya ... with the al-Qaida group." A leading member of the Egyptian Islamic Group, Abu Jihad al-Misri, explained that one reason for the merger was to the Group's spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Rahman, who was imprisoned for inspiring the 1993 World Trade Center bombing.

Al-Zawahiri was a leader in the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, the other main Egyptian militant group besides the Islamic Group, before joining forces with OBL in Al Qaeda in the 1990s. But he began his millitantism as a member of Islamic Group and served time in prison in Egypt for his role in the group’s assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. The primary theme of the tape is to invite members of Islamic Group who ceased operations against Egypt over ten years ago (after effective prosecution by the Mubarek government) to rejoin the jihad. Islamic Group's leader, Karam Zuhdi, was set free from prison in 2003 and expressed regret for conspiring with Egyptian Islamic Jihad in the Sadat assassination. In her analysis, Laura Mansfield notes, "It appears that by joining forces with Al Qaeda formally and officially, that Jamaa Islamiya has ended its ceasefire with the Egyptian government."

In reading a transcript of the tape by Rita Katz of the Site Institute, I noticed no specific mention of other Islamic groups, including Hezbollah; instead, there is a call for Muslim unity by al-Misri:

Do you have a word of invitation for the Islamic groups around the Islamic world?

I invite all leaders and members of the Islamic movements in the Islamic world to unite and come together under one banner to confront the Zionist/Crusader assault on Islam and Muslims, and I call on them to pay no heed to anyone who discourages under the pretense of inability.

Note on the UN Security Council Resolution Regarding Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

By Walid Phares

The current consensus within the United Nations Security Council on the resolution to address the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is the result of a review of four positions and the selection of the middle way between all the latter:

Hezbollah: Yes to a cease fire, and only cease fire, leaving open the question of disengagement. Hezbollah, Iran and Syria want to stop the Israeli campaign, rearm and reorganize; but also concentrate their pressure on the Lebanese Government to crumble it and replace it with a pro-Hezbollah cabinet.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora

Seniora Lebanese Government: (The so-called 7 points plan): Yes to a cease fire with measures on the ground that would be considered as a disengagement. Yes in principle to the idea of a multinational role without many details nor a discussion of Hezbollah's arms.

The French position: Yes to a cease fire, a disengagement plan and the principle of a multinational force to be discussed in details later.

The American position: Yes to a disengagement plan based on the formation of a multinational force which would secure a cease fire, and remove Hezbollah's weapons.

The Israeli position: Yes to a resolution that would call for disarming Hezbollah, forming a powerful multinational force and as a result of it a long term cease fire

Other drafts by Lebanese NGOs have also been submitted to the UNSC as well.

It seems that the French position has obtained the most likely consensus. But if this the case, then another UNSCR may well be discussed and voted after the French influenced resolution which concentrates on "ceasing hostilities."

After exchange of analysis with leaders from the International Lebanese Committee for UNSCR 1559, Members of Parliament in Lebanon, Lebanese NGOs in Beirut and Lebanese Lobby sources in Washington and Brussels this evening, a consensus was made on the following projections:

a. Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, will most likely oppose this resolution on the ground of "rejecting all plans that doesn't include an unconditional withdrawal by Israeli forces behind the blue line."

b. A rejection by Hezbollah, Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Lahoud, their local allies as well as Damascus and Tehran of the formation and the deployment of a Multinational force, other than the UNIFIL, deployed in the region since 1978, with no deterrence mission. "Either the UNIFIL or nothing," said pro-Syrian politician Nabih Berri last week.

c. It is unlikely that the current Seniora cabinet would uprise against Hezbollah at this stage and eject the organization's ministers from the Government. The Seniora Government is expected to stagnate in status quo.

d. Egypt and Saudi Arabia will attempt to convince Bashar Assad to accept the principle of the resolution, but without major results for now.

Walid Phares, Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting Fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy, author of "Future Jihad"

IDF Commando Raid in Tyre; Iranian Missile Resupply

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes; dark blue IDF commando raid. Click map to view.

The naval commandos of Flotilla 13, one of the Israeli Defense Force's elite units, conducted a raid into the heart of Tyre, striking at what is described as "those responsible for the firing of strategic weapons from a vehicle inside a built-up neighborhood." The target was a Hezbollah missile team located on the second floor of a 16 floor apartment building in the dense, urban environment of Tyre. The commandos from Flotilla 13 were inserted via helicopters, stormed the building, and killed 3 Hezbollah fighters, then killed another 10 in fighting outside the apartment. The Israeli commandos took 10 casualties, including two seriously wounded.

The raid in Tyre is the " 17th time IDF commando units were deployed deep inside Lebanese territory," according to Ynet News, and follows the raid on Baalbek deep inside Hezbollah's stronghold of the Bekaa Valley. "The IDF wished to issue a message of deterrence with the raid, indicating that long-range fire deep into Israeli territory would incur immediate consequences," reports Ynet News. A similar statement was made about the Baalbek raid.

The Tyre raid follows Hezbollah's longest rocket launch to date. Hezbollah hit the Israeli city of Hadera with a rocket launched from the city of Tyre. Hadera is 90 kilometers south of the Lebanese border, and a launch from Tyre indicates the rocket would have had to travel approximately 110km. The missile is described as a Khaibar-1, which purportedly is a renamed Fajr-5, but the Fajr-5 is said to have a maximum range of 75km. The Iranian made Zelzal-2 can strike in this range, but Ynet News reports "Police sappers are currently inspecting the rockets' parts and have been able to determine that they are probably old Syrian 302 rockets." Today, over 170 misiles rained down on northern Israel, with about 130 fired within the span of one hour. Hezbollah still possesses command and control over its missile batteries four weeks into the conflict.

Iranian officials admit they supplied Hezbollah with the long-range Zelzal missiles, and according to Jane's Defense Weekly, "Iranian authorities conveyed a message to the Hezbollah leadership that their forces would continue to receive a steady supply of weapons systems." "We are told the latest meeting was attended by senior representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Qods force which is responsible for training and logistic support for Iranian-backed insurgent groups," reports Jane's Defense Weekly. Hezbollah is requesting anti-aircraft missiles and other sophisticated weaponry.

Israeli leaders have indicated long range missile attacks on Tel Aviv would prompt a "massive response," but the message sent to Hezbollah is that strikes on the northern Israeli cities and towns is acceptable to some degree. Israel is signaling it is hesitant to go into the Bekaa Valley on the ground, which is what is needed to root out Hezbollah's infrastructure and close the supply lines from Syria. Air strikes and limited, targeted raids are effective only to a degree, and the Syrian and Iranian resupply will continue along secondary roads and smuggler's routes. A resupply with longer range weapons will negate the value of the currently planned 6-8km buffer zone.

State Department Language Deficiencies Leave U.S. Blind in Crucial Areas

By Douglas Farah

A new study by the GAO has found serious language deficiencies in the State Department, as well as career tracks that make it difficult for those with specific language skills to get ahead in their careers.

The study found that in critical postings such as Cairo and Sana'a, Yemen, 60 percent of the people in positions that should be filled with language proficient officers are not. In China, 71 percent of the "specialists," including those with security functions, do not meet the required language standards. In the Arab world, 75 percent of the specialists do not meet the language requirement that in theory must be met before the person can take the job.

This means that, as far as public reporting and sensitive diplomatic jobs, the United States is largely blind in the two regions where our interests are most challenged. The situation is as bad or worse in the Intelligence Community and the FBI. And there is not likely to be any improvement soon.

It takes years to learn these languages proficiently, and there are only a trickle of people in the pipeline. They will not be emerging as proficient for several more years. This means that, even if recruitment were ramped up and qualified people were attracted to the State Department (or IC), it would take at least 10 years for their presence to make an impact. My full blog is here.

Israeli Cabinet Continues Debate Over Ground Campaign

By Bill Roggio

The Israeli government continues the debate over the shape of the proposed buffer zone in southern Lebanon, as well as the shape of the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Haaretz reports that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz are at odds over how deep the IDF should push into Lebanon. Peretz advocates all the way to the Litani River, while Olmert appears to support the current plan to maintain the 8 kilometer buffer zone.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, however, is said to be reluctant about expanding Israel's ground operation. While Peretz believes that the short-range rocket threat posed by Hezbollah can be neutralized by taking the area up to the Litani, Olmert feels that such a move would not be able to counter the longer-range missile threat posed by the Shi'ite organization... The expansion, which would include occupying the port city of Tyre, still requires the approval of the security cabinet, and could mean a further call-up of reservist soldiers... For now, the cabinet has approved the creation of a buffer zone some eight kilometers inside Lebanon which Olmert wants the military to control until an international peacekeeping force can be deployed in the area.

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view.

The city of Tyre has been a major point of origin for Hezbollah missile strikes into Israel. At the start of the operation against Hezbollah, the Israeli leadership signaled they were not interested in occupying Lebanese territory, other than a 1-2 kilometer buffer zone on the immediate border supported air patrols to suppress Hezbollah rocket positions. After the steady downpour of rockets into Israeli territory, including rocket launched from long range, and the surprise over Hezbollah's military sophistication, the Israeli government became more aggressive and the plan evolved into the current, cabinet approved 8 kilometer buffer zone. This also includes aggressive air strikes outside of southern Lebanon: in the Hezbollah con trolled Bekaa Valley, southern Lebanon and elsewhere. A look at the current battle map and the map of the estimated shape of the future buffer zone shows the IDF is shaping their operations in Southern Lebanon to match the requirements of the 8 kilometer buffer zone.

The ground fight continues in southern Lebanon. Engagements have been reported in the southwestern village of Shama (the news from this region has been quiet since the conflict began), where the IDF killed 4 Hezbollah fighters; two IDF troops were killed by anti-tank fire in Markaba and another two were wounded in ground skirmishes in Al Tayyabah; and 1 Hezbollah was killed and another wounded during fighting in Mankala. Fifteen Hezbollah fighters are said to have been killed on Friday. Two Israelis were killed and over 50 wounded during Hezbollah rocket attacks on civilian population centers. Over 130 rockets were fired on Friday, and 70 rockets were launched within a timespan of 1 hour, indicating Hezbollah still possesses command, control and communications to launch a coordinated barrage of rockets.

The limitations to the current plan, which precludes a move in to the Bekaa valley are highlighted by the New York Sun. "The Israel Defense Forces also says it has not been able to seal the border between Syria and Lebanon, making it possible to ferry men, small rockets, and other material to Hezbollah through the back roads and smuggling routes in the Bekaa Valley," reports the Sun. And Iran is said to be rushing in military aid to resupply Hezbollah prior to any cease fire.

Israel will not be able to seal the border along the Bekaa Valley region via air power alone. The Israeli Air Force may be able to catch missile resupply convoys, but will inevitably kill civilians crossing the border. Such an event happened today when 27 Syrian Kurd farm workers were killed during an IAF airstrike outside of the Qaa border crossing in northern Lebanon. Although the deaths of the farm workers were accidental and such events occur in a war zone, incidents such as this and Qana will bring increasing media and international pressure to force a cease fire.

Meanings: Saad Bin Laden at the Lebanese Syrian borders?

By Walid Phares

In an MSNBC interview with Tucker Carlson yesterday, I commented on the report by a German publication that Iranian authorities have "released Saad Bin Laden from his house arrest in Iran to be assigned at the Lebanese Syrian borders." My comments, short and analytical, summarize as follow:

1) If this report is correct (we still need confirmation) it would be a very "exceptional" matter. For obviously the Khumeinist regime and the al Qaida Salafists are ideologically and politically very distant. Not only on doctrinal issues that separate Sunnis and Shias, but on the matters that pits Fundamentalists from both sides against each other. For Islamists, from both communities are more sensitive to the Shia-Sunni divide than the majority of ordinary people in the Muslim world.

2) For Iran to openly escort and "deploy" an al Qaeda figure to the "Lebanese battlefield," would damage the remaining credibility it pretends it has a broker of stabilization in Lebanon. It would also harm the attempts by their allies the Baathists of Syria to project themselves as potential mediators with Hezbollah. Many "lobbyists" for Bashar Assad in Washington and Brussels (European Parliament) are trying hard to rehabilitate the Syrian regime as power broker in Lebanon. But with the al Qaeda factor on its borders, this renewed attempt would be undermined significantly. Finally Hezbollah itself would be embarrassed among Lebanese, Arabs and Europeans if it is confirmed that their masters in Tehran have ordered them to cooperate with Bin Laden's son.

3) However (and the German report has to be confirmed for this paragraph to be validated) it would be precisely the "exceptional" character of that alleged Iranian decision which could change the above geopolitics and interests. Because Tehran may judge the strategic situation as "very exceptional," i.e. the threat against its main tool in the world, Hezbollah, then the "use" of an anti-Western threat on the Lebanese scene wouldn't be impossible. Syria has had a precedent in 2003 when it allowed (if not encouraged) the "passage" of Salafi Jihadists from Lebanon and the Arab World into Iraq through its borders. Hezbollah also has had precedents in coordination with Sunni Salafi Islamists in Lebanon against Israel, and most recently has pledged to work with Salafi Jihadists to fight the "US-backed Israeli aggression in Lebanon."

In short, indeed the gap between Salafists and Khumeinists is huge and yes, they are bound to fight each others when "times will come." But until these "future times" are here, the present struggle against a "common enemy," can produce emergency decisions, or at least theatrical but dangerous moves. We'll follow up on the development to see if a decision was made in Tehran and Damascus, and if indeed if such a decision was made, how strategic it is.

Walid Phares, Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting Fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy, author of Future Jihad

UN Al Qaida Monitoring Group Recommended UN Listing of IIRO in December 2003

By Victor Comras

While the US Treasury Department has taken action to designate two branches of the Saudi-based International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) and Abd Al Hamid Sulaiman Al-Mujil, the executive director of the charity's Eastern Province branch in Saudi Arabia, it is far from clear whether the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee will follow suit. Without such UN listing, IIRO and its operatives will be able to continue their activities overseas, making the US designation more symbolic than effective.

The UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Group on which I served, recommended that the UN seriously consider listing branches of IIRO and its leadership in our "controversial" last report dated December 3, 2003. For the record I repeat below what we said then:

40. One important example of the use by Al-Qaida of charities and the difficulties in dealing with this issue touches directly on the activities of one of the largest
Islamic umbrella charities, the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) headquartered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Most of that organization’s activities, and the activities of its associated charities, relate to religious, educational, social and humanitarian programmes. But IIRO, and some of its constituent organizations, has also been used, knowingly or unknowingly, to assist in financing Al-Qaida. While IIRO has not been presented to the Committee for possible listing, the United States has asked Saudi Arabia to look closely into the organization’s questionable
activities. They have also offered to provide investigative assistance in this regard.

41. The International Islamic Relief Organization has branch offices throughout the world, including 36 in Africa, 24 in Asia, 10 in Europe and 10 in Latin America, the Caribbean and North America. The bulk of its financial contributions come from private donations in Saudi Arabia. An endowment fund (Sanabil al-Khair) has been established to generate a stable income to finance its various activities. The charity also works in close association with the Muslim World League. Many prominent Middle East figures and financiers have associated themselves with this mainstream Islamic charity.

42. Evidence produced recently in a Canadian court linked IIRO funding directly to Al-Jihad, a designated entity tied closely to Al-Qaida, and responsible for the
bombing in 1998 of the American Embassies in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi. A recently published report by the United States Central Intelligence Agency also indicated that IIRO funds directly supported six Al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan prior to 11 September 2001.d After that date, Pakistan also identified and expelled some two dozen Al-Qaida supporters who had been working for the IIRO-sponsored organizations in Pakistan.

43. Allegations have surfaced in India and the Philippines that local IIRO officers and employees were directly implicated in Al-Qaida-related terrorist activities, including planned attacks against the American Consulates in Madras and Calcutta. The IIRO office in Zamboanga City, the Philippines, reportedly served during the early 1990s as the coordinating centre for secessionist Islamic activities, and as late as 1996 channelled money to the Abu Sayyaf group, another designated entity. That office was established and run by Mohammed Jamal Khalifa, the brother-in-law of Osama bin Laden.a More recently, IIRO, which operates in the United States as the Islamic Relief Organization, was tied to Soliman S. Biheiri and the Safa group of charities now under investigation in the United States for funding Al-Qaida-related activities.

44. The Safa investigation has also highlighted the problematic issue of the use and mingling of charitable funds with investment and business funds. In that investigation, information was uncovered indicating that funds were provided by IIRO to Sana-Bell, Inc., a United States corporation for investment and business purposes. Those funds were subsequently transferred through various channels to Al-Qaida operatives, and to an Al-Qaida financier, Yassin al-Qadi, a designated individual. A number of the charities that have been implicated in Al-Qaida funding, and that have been designated by the Committee, have also been engaged in business ventures to supplement their revenues."

The full Monitoring Group report is available here.

IIRO Freezing Long Overdue

By Douglas Farah

The Treasury Department's decision to designate two branches of the Saudi-based International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) is long overdue and overlooks a much broader problem. While the Philippine and Indonesian branches have been particularly troublesome for many years, the entire organization has been alleged to have been involved in terrorist activities on a far broader level.

IIRO is a sister organization of the Muslim World League (MWL), one of the principal Islamist groups operating in the United States. The IIRO, using the name IRO for the U.S. branch, was also part of the Safa Group, the cluster of Islamist charities raided in Herndon, Virginia in March 2002 on supsicion of funding terrorist groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

According to an affidavit filed Aug. 14, 2003, by Special Agent David Kane, the IIRO branch in the United States received $10 million from IIRO in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The money was to be invested by a company called Sana-Bell Inc. The proceeds were to go to fund the IRO's U.S. activities.

"I have found evidence corroborating that IIRO/IRO has transferred funds to HAMAS through HAMAS fronts such as Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (“HLF”)," Kane testified. While the case against the group is going slowly, due to the complexity of the schemes used by the defendants to make tracing their money as difficult as possible, it is moving forward slowly.

But more ominous is a 1996 CIA report on Islamic charities that shows that 10 years ago the intelligence community had at least a working knowledge of some of the more radical Islamist groups. My entire blog is here.

Re-thinking an Iran-Hizballah-al-Qa’ida Axis

By Jeffrey Cozzens

Reports that Usama bin Laden’s son, Sa’ad, has been released from “house arrest” by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) to organize “Islamist terror cells” in Syria and Lebanon should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. Such a move could seriously undermine al-Qaeda’s (AQ) leadership of the largely Salafi global jihadi movement. The following analysis briefly examines why such a decision might be detrimental to AQ and the jihadi movement it leads.

First, anything that smacks of Salafi-jihadi subservience to the Shi’a regime in Tehran would create fissures in the wider global jihadi movement—possibly to the degree of undermining AQ’s credibility. Even though older AQ ideologues (namely, bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri) have acted with some amount of pragmatism and political acumen toward the Shi’a—almost certainly a reflection of their advanced learning, age, their ascendance from the fringes of the Muslim Brotherhood, and their appreciation for the “martyrdom” tactics of Hizballah—younger elements of the global jihadi movement generally reflect the radical, virulently anti-Shi’a “takfiri” worldview of the late Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, and his mentor, Muhammad al-Maqdisi (also a Jordanian of Palestinian extraction). To give so much as the appearance of fighting “under the banner” of Tehran or Hizballah might therefore seriously alienate droves of the most ardent Salafis from AQ.

Second, by defaulting to the whims of the IRGC, AQ puts itself in a position of becoming yet another Sunni network co-opted by Iranian influence, similar to many of the Palestinian jihadi factions. Even though Sa’ad bin Laden is ostensibly being freed to organize Sunni militants (i.e. fragments of the Syrian jihadi movement and extant Sunni Lebanese jihadi factions) in support of Hizballah, his activities—no matter how they are parsed—would be subject to a degree of IRGC surveillance and/or interference. In the unlikely event the Die Welt report proves to be accurate, as one well-placed European source commented to me today, Iran might simply be acting out of concern for its own (IRCG) resources and well-being by “arranging for [Sa’ad] bin Laden’s martyrdom, which would free up considerable resources now being used to keep an eye on him. They’ll give him some sort of an ultimatum, then send him to Lebanon with knowledge that he won’t get out alive.” Either way, Iran is no friend of the global jihadi movement; it only shares a common enemy.

IIRO Funding Terror in Southeast Asia

By Zachary Abuza

That the IIRO had been funding terrorism in Southeast Asia since the early 1990s, is not news. What is news is that it took the US Government 12 years since it first became aware of its malfeasance when Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law Mohammad Jamal Khalifah was arrested in the United States, along with Loay Bayazid and a brother of Bin Laden in December 1994. Yet nothing was done despite damning evidence of what the IIRO was doing and who it was supporting in the Philippines. The kid gloves were on when it came to the Saudis.

Even in the Philippines, nothing was done, as Khalifah put the Saudi Ambassador to the Philippines on the board of directors, and he was never shy about closing the consular section the tens of thousands of Filipinos who sought work in the Kingdom. The IIRO was linked to Ramzi Yousef's plot to blow up 11 US jetliners, but still nothing was done to shut down the IIRO's activities.

The Treasury Department's press release noted the close ties that the IIRO had in funding the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). What was conspicuously absent was any mention of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a group with much deeper ties to JI and Al Qaeda and one that took far more of the IIRO's funds.

The press release is interesting also in its vagueness about the Indonesian branch of the IIRO, which had a very small footprint in the country. Instead, the IIRO tended to partner with local charities, most notably KOMPAK, but others as well. KOMPAK was active in supporting JI and two of its affiliated paramilitaries, and several JI leaders/members worked for the organization during the worst period of sectarian bloodletting. A few people, such as Agus Dwikarna, were the heads of the local chapters of the IIRO and KOMPAK. Aris Munandar, whom the Treasury has already designated, was a senior IIRO and KOMPAK official. To date, KOMPAK has still not been designated. Omar al Farouq, the highest ranking Al Qaeda operative in Southeast Asia until his arrest in mid-2004 (he was one of the captives who escaped from US custody in Bagram) revealed that the IIRO was the primary source of Qaeda funding to Jemaah Islamiyah.

The last thing of note in the statement is that it described how in 2004 Abd al-Hamil Sulaiman al-Mujil invited a Philippines-based JI supporter to Saudi Arabia and provided him to cash to support terrorist operations. This confirms that Gulf financiers have really begun to rely on personal couriers to move significant amounts of funds in support of terrorism.

The Southern Lebanon Offensive and the New Buffer Zone

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view.

The Israeli Defense Force is probing hard across the entire Lebanese border, from Metulla to Marwahin. Eight Israeli brigades, at about 1,000 soldiers per brigade, plus supporting units (engineering, artillery, reconnaissance, communications, logistics) are currently engaged inside southern Lebanon. "IDF troops had established positions overlooking 11 south Lebanese towns and villages up to six kilometers north of the Israeli border," according to Haaretz. The southern Lebanon battle map has been updated to include the position of Israeli troops and current clashes based on news reports.

Haaretz also states "the IDF is planning to establish "a new defensive line in southern Lebanon that will be six to eight kilometers north of the Israeli border," that is "effectively the same security zone it held until the pullout from Lebanon in May 2000." We discussed the buffer zone possibilities on July 17 (along with the comparison to the 1982-2000 occupation) and again on July 25. The current plan would be an improvement over the 1-2 kilometer zone and air based patrols initially proposed by Israeli leadership.

The IDF has encountered strong resistance from Hezbollah's military formations along the border. An Israeli Merkava main battle tank was destroyed in the town of Rajmin (Ramyah on the map) by Hezbollah anti-tank weapons, and 2 Israelis were killed and 2 seriously wounded. Yesterday, 3 Israeli soldiers were killed and 15 wounded during an ambush in the town of Ayta ash Shab. Israeli troops killed 15 Hezbollah fighters during the counterattack.

Overall, the IDF estimates 250-300 Hezbollah have been killed during the fighting over the past three weeks. Depending on the estimate of active Hezbollah fighters (which ranges from 2,000 to 5,000), Hezbollah has suffered anywhere from 5% to 15% casualties. This does not include Hezbollah's reserve fighters, estimated between 20,000 to upwards of 50,000. The IDF has a lot of work to do to render Hezbollah an ineffective fighting force,and Hezbollah's rockets still remain a threat. Over 210 rockets landed in northern Israel yesterday, the highest total yet, and 130 rockets were launched in 90 minutes today, which killed 7 Israeli civilians and wounded 49. Overall 180 rockets anded inside Israel on Thursday.

As the Israelis look to prepare southern Lebanon for an international security force, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again openly voices his desire for the destruction of Israel, and indicates a cease fire is the first step. "Although the main solution is for the elimination of the Zionist regime, at this stage an immediate cease-fire must be implemented," said Ahmadinejad, "Peace and security in Lebanon and its borders has to be preserved by the Lebanese government and people. Deployment of foreign forces is not acceptable in any shape unless it is just, based on UN rules and preserves the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon."

Ahmadinejad's statement comes on the heals of the news that Said bin Laden, Osama bin Laden's son and appointed successor, has been released from Iranian custody and is headed to Lebanon. "From the Lebanese border, he has the task of building Islamist terror cells and preparing them to fight together with Hizbollah," the German newspaper Die Welt reports (see Jeffrey Imm's post for additional details.) If true, Said would have access to the thousands of Sunni Islamists currently bottled up in Syria who have not been able to enter Iraq, Iran and Syria have every intention of escalating the war in Lebanon, and the notion that Sunni and Shiite terrorist groups cann not and do not cooperate can be put to rest once and for all.

Turkey Launches Limited Incursion Into Iraq

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On July 19, I noted that Turkey was making noise about launching a unilateral cross-border incursion into Iraq to engage the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) in combat operations. The situation had become so serious that Turkey warned both the U.S. and Iraqi ambassadors that its patience with continued PKK presence in Iraq was wearing thin. On July 25, Turkey and the U.S. entered an agreement designed to prevent such unilateral intervention by increasing the two countries' cooperation against the PKK. Late last week, Turkey launched its first reported incursion into Iraq. Zaman Online reported on July 28:

The 1st division commander of Iraq's Kurdistan Democrat Party (IKDP), Fahmi Sofi, claimed that about 200 Turkish soldiers entered two kilometers into Northern Iraq on Wednesday. His statement came from the Voice of Iraqi Radio. While debates about a cross-border operation continue in Turkey, Iraqi Radio announced that the Turkish military advanced into the Dohuk region, passing the Iraqi border. Deputy Commander Sofi stated that about 200 Turkish soldiers passed the border around 3:00 pm in a statement he made to the station broadcast from Baghdad. . . . Another related news story on a website called 'Peyamner', known to be the broadcasting body of IKDP, also reported that a division of the Turkish military entered the Kveste village region in Ahmediye bound to the Duhok city in order to conduct an operation against the terror organization PKK.

There has been no indication in press accounts about whether this cross-border incursion occurred pursuant to the joint U.S.-Turkish agreement on cooperation against the PKK. However, since no diplomatic wrangling emerged after the incursion, it's best to assume that it took place pursuant to the agreement.

We're likely to see further Turkish military engagement of the PKK. One reason is that the PKK seems to have escalated its attacks against Turkish civilians and government entities. On Sunday, for example, a PKK-laid landmine killed one child and injured three others in the eastern province of Bingöl, while a PKK attack on police lodgings in the province of Ağrı injured six officers and a passer-by. Such attacks will continue to drive public pressure for the Turkish government to counter the PKK presence in Iraq.

A second factor that will likely drive Turkey to further engagement with the PKK is the appointment of Gen. Yasar Buyukanit to head the Turkish military. Gen. Buyukanit is known as a "blunt-speaking hawk," and most observers believe that he will call for more aggressive action against the PKK.

Expect to see further Turkish incursions into Iraq -- coordinated with the United States if not carried out in conjunction with U.S. troops -- over the coming weeks and months.

Report - Iran Sends Bin Laden Son to Support Hezbollah

By Jeffrey Imm

According to the German newspaper Die Welt, Iran has released a son of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from house arrest. Western intelligence services have believed that about a dozen Qaeda figures have been held in Iran since after 9/11, including not only Saad Bin Laden, but also Saif al-Adel, the network's security chief.

Saad Bin Laden was released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard released Saad bin Laden on July 28 with the aim of sending him to the Syria-Lebanon border. This move is reportedly linked to the war between Israel and Hezbollah. "From the Lebanese border, he has the task of building Islamist terror cells and preparing them to fight together with Hizbullah," Die Welt said, quoting intelligence information. "Apparently Tehran is counting on recruiting Lebanese refugees in Syria for the fight against Israel, using bin Laden's help," it added in a preview of a report to appear in its Thursday edition.

Daily Standard: Why They Fight

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My review of Mary Habeck's book Knowing the Enemy: Jihadist Ideology and the War on Terror was published this morning at the Daily Standard. An excerpt from the review:

DRAWING UPON AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY of primary-source material from these and like-minded Islamic radicals, Habeck makes her greatest contribution by illuminating the building blocks of the jihadist worldview.

It begins with the notion that only the Koran and ahadith (the sayings and traditions of Prophet Muhammad) are relevant to ordering the Muslim community. The views of more modern legal scholars, which may have a moderating effect on the faith, are given far less weight. With the Koran and ahadith as their only guides, jihadists believe that it is their duty to discover the "comprehensive ideology" contained in the Islamic faith.

For the jihadists, that comprehensive ideology begins with a concept known as tawhid. An Arabic term denoting the oneness of God, all Muslims have a shared belief in tawhid--but, as with so many theological concepts, the jihadists have a somewhat idiosyncratic interpretation of its implications. Echoing Ibn Taymiya, jihadist thinkers like Maududi and Qutb argue that if only God can be worshipped and obeyed, then only God's laws can have any significance or legitimacy. This provides them with justification not only for violently overturning social systems that aren't based on a "correct" understanding of Islam, but also for declaring fellow Muslims to be non-believers if they accept secular rule in place of the Islamic order that jihadists seek to impose.

The consequences of the view that only sharia law has legitimacy are far-reaching. For one thing, jihadists' unwillingness to accept secular rule places them on an inevitable collision course with the West. The jihadist thinker Fathi Yakan, for example, wrote of the need for jihad in response to "attacks from every materialistic ideology and system that threatens the existence of Islam as a global paradigm of thought and system of life."

You can read the whole review here. Habeck's book is excellent, and I highly recommend it. It can be purchased here.

Magnus Ranstorp, Walid Phares, & Stephen Sloan Comment on War in Lebanon

By Andrew Cochran

Three of our Contributing Experts recently provided their opinions on the situation in Lebanon in the print media. Links to these, plus other links to columns by and media interviews of our Contributing Experts, are available in the "CT Experts in the Media" page, always linked on the left sidebar.

Magnus Ranstorp told Laura Rozen of "The American Prospect" that "The Israelis have seized the moment. Everything was in a holding pattern, stalemate, and the kidnapping was perfect for the Israelis, and they have seized the moment. From my perspective, I would tell them to continue on the same path. Not to concede until the work has been done...I have followed this thing on a daily basis for sixteen years now, even when it was completely out of the headlines. And there has never been a better moment to really move on the Lebanese and Syrian tracks."

Walid Phares was interviewed by Kathryn Jean Lopez of "National Review Online":"Let the multinational force show its flags over the shores of Lebanon, and you’ll see a Cedar Revolution rejecting Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. Don’t ask an unarmed population to do what neither Afghans, Iraqis, or for that matter any other people have done: fight terror with bare hands."

Stephen Sloan wrote "'Lebanonization' of Europe next?" for the "Orlando Sentinel": "Unless Europe acts forcefully, the tragedies in Lebanon and Israel could easily spill over to those who either intentionally or unwittingly would bring the violence of sectarian politics in the current conflict to European society. The Lebanonization of Western European politics represents a very real short- and longer-term strategic threat to those who would like to ignore their global responsibilities."

Muslim Brotherhood takes up Arms---in support of Hizbullah

By Zeyno Baran

Last night, al-Arabia TV (Dubai) reported that a new Sunni Jihadi front has been established in Lebanon, named The Islamic Action Front (Jabhat al-Amal al-Islami). According to Muslim World News (MWN), Fathi Yakan, a follower of Sayyid Qutb, is believed to be the main establisher of the new Front, which brings together major Sunni organizations from all parts of Lebanon (which altogether include several thousand members), aiming to “fill an existing gap” and “create an authoritative body for the Sunnis in Lebanon”, that will “work in co-operation with the other authoritative bodies”. Yakan further stated the Front’s commitment to all aspects of Jihad, including its military side, and its willingness to fight alongside Hizbullah.

In addition, Ibrahim al-Masri, Deputy Head of the Jamaa Islamiyya (the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, also according to al-Arabia), said in a seperate interview their fighters stand shoulder-to-shoulder fighting with Hizbullah. Al-Masri dated the military co-operation of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizbullah back to the 1980s. He said their fighters are stationed in villages on the Lebanon-Israel border strip (including Shabaa and Shuba); they are assisted, he affirmed, by the Jamaa’s infrastructure of (civilian) institutions and have their own ammunition and stocks.

Today, Muslim Brotherhood leader Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi’s website, Islam Online published an article that quotes Masri as stating “The Sunni Islamic Group in Lebanon fighters are defending…southern Lebanon hand-in-hand with Hizbullah.” He further states that “we have military combatant groups in the border areas to defend villages there.” This is probably one of the first times Muslim Brotherhood has admitted to having a “military combatant group.”

Hezbollah's Endurance Shows Dangers of Nonstate Actors in Conflict

By Douglas Farah

By holding out two weeks longer than the nations that attacked Israel during the Six-Day War, Hezbollah has proven itself to be a formidable military force that has spent recent years increasing its wartime capacity and training even as it was projecting a more moderate image of a party in government.

Granted, the military success to date is built partly on the willingness to hide among the civilian population, in part giving rise to the horrendous civilian toll in the conflict. Nor is Hezbollah capable or seeking to destroy the nation of Israel. Its objectives and means are more limited than the more grandiose plans of previous nations to wage war there.

But when the dust clears at the end of each day, Hezbollah is there, against one of the most formidable armies in the world, fighting on familiar terrain, not far from home.

The double game was not unknown to Israel and others watching the region, but the amount of arms amassed, the constant upgrades of the group's capacity and the training show the dangers that non-state actors pose, especially if they enjoy a high level of state support. These groups often fare better than state militaries, have more flexibility and the ability to break down into small, self-contained units that are not bound by the rules and conventions of states. My full blog is here.

Cyber-Terrorism Breaking Out Over War in Lebanon

By Andrew Cochran

During the height of the "cartoon jihad," I posted about cyber-terrorist attacks on pro-Danish and anti-terrorist websites, including ours (see my posts here and here). Now the cyber-terrorists and their political backers are predictably going into action over the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon. Zone-H reported yesterday and last week, when US government sites and a Microsoft site was attacked. Yesterday's report really sounded the alarm: "Hundreds of web sites have been attacked in last days as a protest against bombing attacks by Israel against Lebanon.The largest part of web intrusions were defacements - web intrusion at any level by which a web page is replaced by the attacker’s message - against Israeli and U.S. web sites." Zone-H noted that the attacks are coming not just from Muslim areas, but from politically motivated non-Muslims expressing their protest by hacking and defacing websites. I'll come back to this issue in future posts.

Spike of Violence in Thailand's Muslim Insurgency

By Zachary Abuza

Between 1-2 August, Thailand was again wracked by a spate of Muslim separatist violence.. 115 acts of violence including 70 bombs and arson attacks were reported across four provinces in the troubled south. 20 more bombs were defused. Most alarming to Thai authorities was that three !order patrol police were killed in Songkhla province, not one of the three Muslim dominated provinces of Pattani, Yala or Narathiwat that have experienced most of the violence in the past few years. The bomb, which was placed on a railway bridge, temporarily halted travel between Bangkok and Malaysia. Previous attacks in Songkhla and Hat Yai city, the main commercial and financial center of the south, including the international airport, have jarred the government. The death toll from the attacks was low, but Thai government security forces were caught flat footed. After the spate of 70 bombings in a 4-day period in June, Thai officials announced that they had intelligence of another major wave of attacks at the end of July. Many of the bombs were thrown into government offices, or homes of government officials.

The insurgents' intelligence and logistical capabilities to carry out such a large number of coordinated attacks at will in a region the size of Israel further undermines Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin's Government's claim that the insurgency is under control. Earlier this week Caretaker Minister of the Interior conceded that despite government bans on unregistered prepaid phone cards, they were still being used to detonate bombs.

One bombing was particularly alarming. A Buddhist temple in Narathiwat was bombed, provoking fears of a wider sectarian conflict.

IDF Commando Raid in Baalbek, Deep in the Bekaa Valley; Hezbollah Members Captured

By Bill Roggio

Location of Israeli airstrikes in the Bekaa Valley and Tyre, and the raid on Baalbek. Click map to view.

Israeli commandos made a bold strike deep into Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, the heart of Hezbollah's empire. Israeli helicopters, backed by the Israeli Air Force, inserted an unknown number of commandos, who proceeded to the target, a Hezbollah-run hospital which is believed to have sheltered senior Hezbollah commanders. This operation appears to have been carried out in conjunction with a series of air strikes in the Bekaa Valley, including attacks on Hermel, another Hezbollah strong hold and crossings at the Syrian border.

The commandos were extracted from the scene after a fierce gun battle which included air strikes and strafing runs on Hezbollah positions outside the hospital, The commandos did not leave empty handed, and “took a number of Hizbullah officials captive.” Haaretz reports 3 to 5 “junior Hezbollah militants” were captured, and several more were killed during the raid. “[Lebanese sources] identified the men as Hussein Nasrallah, Hussein al-Burji and Ahmed al-Ghotah and described them as low ranking members of the group,” according to Haaretz, and “The captured Hussein Nasrallah has the same name as a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”

Early reports, based solely on Hezbollah 'spokesmen,' indicated the Israeli commandos were “trapped inside as [Hezbollah] fighters opened fire on them.” The same spokesman claimed the Israelis did not capture Hezbollah leaders.

The raid was most likely carried out by the commandos of the Sayeret Mat'kal (General Staff Reconnaissance Unit 269.) This storied unit is the pointy tip of the Israeli counterterrorism spear, and has participated in Israelis most daring raids.

Tuesday's commando raid in the Bekaa Valley is not the first operation of its kind attempted by Israeli forces. On July 30, Arutz Sheva reported Israeli helicopters were thwarted from landing in the Bekaa Valley after taking fire from Lebanese Army anti-aircraft batteries.

LA Deportation Case Demonstrates Much That Is Wrong With Our Immigration “System”

By Bill West

For the past two years, the US government has been trying to deport Abdel Jabbar Hamdan, a Palestinian who the Government has charged is an illegal alien for having overstayed his nonimmigrant student visa when he first entered the United States some 27 years ago. The Government has already proven its deportation case before an Immigration Court and the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA), as Hamdan has been ordered removed (deported) from the United States based on the charges filed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Immigration Court and BIA have also denied Hamdan’s requests for relief from deportation. Hamdan has exercised his right to appeal his case to the US 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, where the deportation issue currently resides.

During the past two years, Hamdan has been detained by the Government pending those removal proceedings. The Government has claimed Hamdan was a key fundraiser for an Islamic charity, the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development, that has been linked by the Feds to the terrorist organization Hamas. Other Holy Land Foundation officials have been charged criminally by the Federal government with various terrorism-support related crimes and those cases are in various stages of prosecution. Hamdan was not charged with any crime, but with the noted immigration removal violation. Nonetheless, the Government sought to keep him detained due to his links to the Holy Land Foundation and alleged support to Hamas. Hamdan claimed his fund-raising was only for humanitarian purposes and has been seeking his release during the deportation case. Not surprisingly, Hamdan had a small army of supporters among various Muslim advocacy and left-wing legal groups.

A Change in Strategy: IDF to Expand Ground Campaign in Lebanon

By Bill Roggio

Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view.

The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to "expanded ground operations in Lebanon," after an early morning vote by the Israeli security cabinet. Senior officers in the Israeli Defense Force have pushed for deploying Israeli troops as far north of the Litani River, but the Israeli government has been vague on this point. If the IDF pushes to the Litani River, this would be a shift in strategy from a week ago.

Since the beginning of the conflict, the Israeli government believed the IDF could establish a narrow buffer zone of 1-2 kilometers on the Lebanese side of the border and range southern Lebanon with air power to hunt Hezbollah rocket and missile teams. The change in strategy may allow Israel to regain the initiative in Lebanon which it lost after the implementation of the failed buffer zone policy and the tragic civilain deaths during the air strikes in Qana.

Three additional reserve divisions have been called to active duty. Currently, units from three Israeli divisions, the Paratroopers (along the southwestern border), Golani (center) and Nahal (eastern border) are engaged with Hezbollah forces. The Paratroopers are fighting in the village of Ayta al-Ashad; the Golani near Aytarun; and the Nahal at Addaisheh, Al Tayyabah and Rav a-Taltin. Arutz Shevea reports "Harsh fighting is taking place" outside of Ayta al-Ashad, where "Hizbullah members have been firing barrages of anti-tank missiles."

The push to the bend in the Litani River by the Nahal division would cut off resupply from roads south of the river. This would set the stage for the IDF to move a blocking force north of the river and seal off the regions south of the river, allowing the IDF to pursue and engage Hezbollah conventional forces on the ground. (See analysis from July 25.)

The expanded ground offensive does not appear to include the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah and their Syrian and Iranian backers have amassed power. The Israeli Air Force, likely with the aid of special operations forces, are currently striking at targets in the Bekaa Valley, including border crossings to Syria, in an attempt to interdict Hezbollah's resupply lines. The cities of Hermel and Baalbeck, considered Hezbollah command centers, have also been the focus of IAF strikes. The Israeli Navy is striking at Hezbollah position in and around the port city to Tyre (or Sour).

CNN Promotion of Islamic Relief Worldwide Group Linked to Jihadist Organizations

By Jeffrey Imm

In CNN's coverage of the current battles between Israel and the terrorist group Hezbollah, CNN has provided a list of "aid groups" to assist civilians in the "Mideast crisis". One of these groups is the Islamic Relief Worldwide (IRW) group - which has been reported to have disturbing links to Jihadism and recently documented fund-raising links to US State Department-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) Hamas.

Islamic Relief Worldwide (IRW) is an international Islamic aid organization that was founded in United Kingdom, in 1984, by Dr Hany El Banna. It was reported in 1999 that IRW's main UK office received $50,000 from a Canadian group that "the U.S. Treasury Department called 'a(n Osama) bin Laden front.' Moscow's Obshchaya Gazeta has reported that IRW has collected and funneled millions of dollars to the Chechen terrorist rebels in Russia, who have ties to al Qaeda.

In 2004, IRW had a fundraiser at Britain's Birmingham Central Mosque, which has historically been a source of jihad recruitment, including meetings of Al-Muhajiroun and reported recruitment of UK suicide bombers who attacked Tel Aviv in 2003.

In May 2006, Iyaz Ali, a UK IRW project coordinator, was arrested in Israel for assisting the terrorist group Hamas. Part of IRW coordinator Ali's activities involved transferring funds and assisting Hamas institutions and groups, including Al Wafa and Al Tzalah, both of which are officially illegal in Israel. When Ali was investigated, incriminating files were found on his computer which showed links to IRW's ties with illegal Hamas funds in UK and Saudi Arabia, as well as photographs of swastikas, of "Nazi German officials, of Osama Bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, as well as many photographs of Hamas military activities."

If Islamic Relief is actively supporting FTO groups, why is CNN promoting them?

School Announces It Will Help Indonesian Mujahideen Reach Lebanon

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

From the Indonesian newspaper Tempo on July 30:

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta: The Alumni Organization of the Al Mukmin Ngukri Boarding School, Sukoharjo, is facilitating Indonesian volunteers to travel to Lebanon. According to the head of the organization, Ali Usman, the group has also opened a recruitment base for the coordination of members that are ready to fight. "Their departure will be secret. What I mean is without government knowledge, like when they went to fight in Afghanistan," he told Tempo on Sunday.

Ali Usman said volunteers that are already prepared to become mujahideen there is enough military knowledge and skill to fill the demand. "This is real solidarity for the Muslim brotherhood who are being persecuted. They are extremely serious to become mujahideen. In this short amount of time we have already coordinated their departure," he said.

According to Ali Usman, the organization at this time is thinking about the possibility of opening public mujahideen recruitment centers for non-alumni.

The mujahideen, he said, are the last resort after waiting (in vain) for the government's stance. "If the government is not willing to help the people of Lebanon and Palestine, the people themselves must help in any way they can," he said.

Meanwhile, in Surakarta the Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera, PKS) went to the streets to condemn Israel's military aggression that is supported by the United States. They also called for the closure of the United Nations because it failed to stop the aggression of Israel.

The Al Mukmin Ngukri Boarding School is affiliated with Abu Bakar Bashir, who intelligence agencies describe as the spiritual head of the terror group Jemaah Islamiyah.

The Tempo article was translated by my colleague Nick Grace, who provides the following note about the last paragraph: "It's interesting to note the last paragraph on the PKS Party, which is essentially the Muslim Brotherhood's wing in Indonesian politics. They are believed to be funded by Saudi Arabia and the leading legislator, Tamsil Linrung, was a central player in the Poso jihad a few years ago. He was arrested in Manila in 2002 and accused of carrying explosives for al Qaeda."