Daily Standard: The Next Big One?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My article on assumptions that may need to be rethought in light of the large-scale plot announced yesterday by British authorities is now posted at the Daily Standard. An excerpt:

Dan Darling and Steve Schippert outlined a large number of connections between the 7/7 bombers and the al Qaeda network. These include: 7/7 ringleader Mohammad Sidique Khan meeting with senior Jemaah Islamiyah leaders; New York terror suspect Mohammed Junaid Babar identifying Khan from a photograph and claiming that they had met at an al Qaeda training camp; and British al Qaeda leader Haroon Aswat making phone calls to the 7/7 bombers just hours before the attacks.

While these connections suggest that the 7/7 attackers were not nearly as segregated from the international jihad network as some observers initially assumed, there is even less of a chance that the plot announced yesterday was conceived by a wholly autonomous, independent group. Estimates of the number of individuals involved in the foiled attack range from 50 up to perhaps as many as 150 people. It's unlikely that a terror group this large would form organically, without an outside hand. This is especially the case since they had a support network that stretches at least to Pakistan, and perhaps to the United States and Canada as well.

Thus, some analysts may need to rethink their previously-held assumptions about the broader al Qaeda network's inability to take part in another large-scale terror plot. One critical question concerns the operation's command and control. Who called the shots for the plot? Who gave it the green light? These answers are not yet known, but may well provide insight into the role al Qaeda's central leadership now plays in international terror.

A SECOND ASSUMPTION that should be reconsidered is the state of our efforts to defend soft targets. Preliminary reports suggest that terrorists involved in this plot took several transatlantic flights between Britain and the United States in order to probe weaknesses in airline security. This suggests an active enemy that is ready to adapt to the defenses we have erected.

Read the whole article here.

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