Islamic Courts Union Continues to Gain Ground in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

ICU militiamen aboard one of their many "technicals."

I recently blogged about the Islamic Courts Union's (ICU) rapid expansion throughout Somalia. If anything, that expansion has only hastened since I last wrote about it. This weekend, along with seizing the port city of Harardhere, the ICU also captured Eldher, another strategic coastal town known for its piracy.

And yesterday the ICU captured the central Somali port city of Hobyo, which lies 500 km north of Mogadishu along Somalia's coast. Residents reported that the militia's "technicals" -- which are pickup trucks that have been converted into battlewagons, with heavy weaponry welded onto the back -- surrounded Hobyo and then sent an envoy to negotiate its surrender. Eyewitnesses saw ICU leader Hassan Dahir Aweys personally lead ICU forces into the town. After this latest ICU victory, one Western diplomat stated, "They are very smart, they are gradually consolidating their territory, while the government looks on helplessly."

While the ICU controls a large geographic portion of south-central Somalia and seemingly gains ground each day, the interim government looks increasingly helpless. Reuters reported yesterday:

With Islamists strongholds effectively flanking Baidoa, President Abdullahi Yusuf's interim government, which meets in a converted grain warehouse, looks more vulnerable than ever. Although it is internationally recognised as Somalia's only legitimate national authority, it lacks any real power on the ground beyond Baidoa and commands only a small militia compared with the Islamists' large fighting force. Regional power Ethiopia has, however, bolstered the government's position by sending troops into Somalia to take up positions around Baidoa, according to witnesses.

As the Islamic militias gain ground in Somalia, they encounter little resistance. Residents don't have much incentive to fight the ICU, since the transitional government did little to engender loyalty. In fact, many residents welcome the prospect of stability that the ICU brings to a country that has been ravaged by war. Moreover, some of the government's soldiers have defected to the ICU's force, further adding to the Islamic militia's strength. Court chairman Mohamed Ali Bilal explained the defection of militiamen to the ICU: "They are ideologically uncomfortable with the government and also claim to have been mistreated."

The ICU's expansion in Somalia mirrors that of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 1990s, as made clear by Ahmed Rashid's definitive book Taliban:

The Taliban had won over the unruly Pashtun south because the exhausted, war-weary population saw them as saviours and peacemakers, if not as a potential force to revive Pashtun power which had been humiliated by the Tajiks and Uzbeks. Many surrenders had been facilitated by pure cash, bribing commanders to switch sides -- a tactic that the Taliban were to turn into a fine art form in later years and which was sustained by the growth in their income from the drugs trade, the transport business and external aid from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

As the ICU has expanded, it has also put peace talks on hold with the transitional government for at least two weeks. The UN's call for the Islamic militia to rejoin these talks has gone unheeded.

The UN Security Council also warned Somalia's neighbors against interfering in Somalia's affairs, and threatened sanctions against all violators of an arms embargo on the country. This warning is obviously directed against Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, given the visible weakness of the transitional government, this call for non-interference is only likely to benefit the ICU.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

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