Islamic Courts Union Expands Its Control in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) made two major strategic gains over the past week. Last Wednesday, it wrested control of the town of Beletuein from its previous pro-government rulers. Fighting broke out around 7:00 a.m. local time between Islamic militiamen and forces loyal to Yusuf Ahmed Hagar, whom the transitional government had nominated as governor of the Hiran region. After the fighting began, Hagar reportedly "escaped with two pick up trucks mounted with heavy machineguns heading to the border of Ethiopia." The city now appears calm, and firmly in the hands of the ICU.

The capture of Beletuein is a significant strategic victory for the ICU. It's located about 335 km north of Somali capital Mogadishu. Capturing Beletuein allows the ICU greater flexibility to move its militias and supplies, and could prove to be a key city if the ICU wishes to further spread its influence into Ethiopia. Moreover, Somalia's transitional government is located in Baidoa. Capturing Beletuein helps the ICU to move strategically around Baidoa and establish its presence around the city.

The ICU also reportedly captured another strategic town over the weekend. The town of Harardhere, a port city that is used as a base for piracy, lies just north of Mogadishu. The BBC reports that on capturing Harardhere, the ICU told residents that piracy would be a crime from now on, and that incidents of piracy "have reportedly declined since the Islamic militia made territory gains."

Fighters within the ICU's militia have indicated that they also plan to spread its influence to Galkayo, a town 570 km northwest of Mogadishu. Galkayo borders the semi-autonomous Puntland region, and Puntland militiamen have indicated their willingness to fight the ICU as it tries to expand its reach. Puntland Gen. Yusuf Ahmed Kheyr said in a radio broadcast, "We hear that the militiamen want to expand their authority throughout Somalia, but we will never accept such expansion." If the ICU successfully seizes Galkayo, that could result in the ICU controlling the majority of Somalia.

There are two major implications to the ICU's expansion. The first is the connection between the ICU and al-Qaeda: as the ICU makes gains, it is more likely that al-Qaeda can establish itself in the country, much to the terror group's advantage. Counterterrorism consultant Dan Darling has written a good article for the Daily Standard outlining why there is reason to be concerned about links between the ICU and al-Qaeda.

The second major implication is that the ICU's advances may set the stage for a military conflict between it and Ethiopia. (See my previous blog entry analyzing whether war was brewing between Ethiopia and the ICU.) Analysts from the International Crisis Group have reported that "[m]ilitary and diplomatic observers in Nairobi believe Ethiopia is preparing to carry out a short, sharp strike deep into southern Somalia if it deems the Courts a sufficient threat." Indeed, over the weekend the BBC reported that Ethiopia has amassed six divisions (close to 5,000 troops, including tanks) along the Somali border. Sources believe that Ethiopia could intervene if the ICU crosses into Puntland. Moreover, as of today eyewitnesses claimed to see at least 30 Ethiopian military vehicles crossing into Somalia at the Jawil border crossing. This has triggered speculation that the Ethiopians may work alongside Yusuf Ahmed Hagar's loyalists to return him to power.

In light of these developments, Somali prime minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi (who leads the transitional government) has called for ceasefire talks with the ICU. The ICU, however, says it will only enter such talks if Ethiopia withdraws its troops from Somalia. The situation in Somalia is nowhere close to a resolution, and there is a significant chance of escalation.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

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