London Airline Bombing Plot News (last update at 9:15 pm ET)

By Andrew Cochran

British authorities have been tracking the plot for months, and the arrests were made "when they learned several of the men had booked flights to the U.S. in the next several days, for apparent trial runs." The plot is walked back to Karachi, Pakistan. See the ABC News story on Matiur Rahman, key Al Qaeda operative who might have planned this operation. Also on ABC News site: Three alleged ringleaders have been identified; two recently traveled to Pakistan and later received money wired to them from Pakistan, reportedly to purchase tickets for the suicide bombers. Sources identify the three, now in custody, as Rashid Rauf, Mohammed al-Ghandra, and Ahmed al Khan. Fox News at 3 pm ET:"British authorities are 'urgently' seeking the arrests of up to 10 more suspects in the terrorist plot uncovered early Thursday morning to blow up U.S.-bound flights with liquid explosives carried onto planes via carry-on luggage." Twenty-four main suspects are now in custody. Fox News again: "(A)n Islamic militant arrested near the Afghan-Pakistan border several weeks ago provided a lead that played a role in "unearthing the plot," that helped authorities arrest suspects in Britain." AP reports that the were targeting as many as 10 flights, and "plotters hoped to stage a dry run within two days," and "the actual attack would have followed within days." Time Magazine: "(A) knowledgeable American official says U.S. intelligence provided London authorities with intercepts of the group's communications." (That would probably be the NSA surveillance program.)

Michelle Malkin's and Brendan Loy's blogs included links to many stories overnight on this plot. See Walid Phares' post on this plot with his early analysis and incisive questions, and Evan Kohlmann's post today on Al Qaeda's use of liquid explosives for airliners. Here is the statement by the Homeland Security Department on the raised threat level to Severe, or Red, for commercial flights originating in the UK bound for the United States, with the threat raised to Orange for all flights within or bound for the US. MSNBC: "Senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News that the plot was on British officials’ radar for about two weeks and that several of the people involved had been monitored for several months when this plot came into view," and "Two U.S. counterterrorism officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the terrorists had targeted United, American and Continental airlines. A U.S. intelligence official said the plotters had hoped to target flights to major airports in New York, Washington and California." Other news sources also identified British Airways as a target. All commentary points to the similarity to the failed Al Qaeda Bojinka plot in 1995 to blow up airliners. Fox News: "A senior U.S. counterterrorism official said authorities believe dozens of people — possibly as many as 50 — were involved in the plot." Time Magazine: "The FBI-DHS report next warns law enforcement agencies about the two peroxide-based liquid explosive that could be used in a future attack against the U.S.--triacetone triperoxide (TATP) or hexamethylene triperoxide diamine (HMTD)."

Press conference with DHS Secretary Chertoff, Att. Gen. Gonzales, & FBI Director Mueller at 8 am ET: Well-planned and well-advanced plot with significant number of operatives - very concrete steps underway and suspects had accumulated capabilities to carry out plot - british authorities pursued this for some time but in last two weeks, focus on US targets appeared and plan appeared to have accelerated - "quite close" to execution phase - no indication of US plotters who would have intersected with UK plotters - would not give a number of airliners but "multiple" - shortly before arrests, suspects focused on UK-US routes - can't say whether 9/11 anniversary a factor or whether they would have waited that long - explosives designed into beverages and other liquids, electronics, and other common objects, with possibility of bringing benign components onboard and then assembling them - "quite sophisticated" - will not discuss suspects' nationalities now, but this group was "very skilled and very capable" - suggestive of Al Qaeda plot but not certain and reminiscent of 1995 plot (Bojinka) - arrests have significantly disrupted the threat but investigation ongoing in UK and here - no liquids or gels allowed in carry-on baggage.

NBC News' Lisa Myers reported that one or more suspects had traveled to Pakistan, where they received some training. MSNBC's Bob Windrem reported that two persons were arrested in Pakistan in connection with this plot, most of the suspects are of Pakistani origin (but all suspects are British nationals), and Pakistani intel services assisted UK agencies in the investigation (also reported in the London Times and confirmed by Pakistani authorities). He also reports multiple plotters would have boarded each aircraft with components combined inflight. The plotters looked for flights online in the past few weeks, leading UK investigators to move towards the arrests. ABC News: They "planned to conceal their liquid or gel explosives inside a modified sports beverage drink container and trigger the device with the flash from a disposable camera."

"US News & World Reports" reports that "At least some of the suspects had ties to those involved in the July 7, 2005, coordinated bombings on the London subways" and "Terrorists plotting to blow up American planes headed from the United Kingdom to the United States were planning to smuggle hydrogen peroxide based improvised liquid/slurry explosives in modified sports drinks bottles."

President Bush at 11:50 am ET: "We are safer than we were prior to 9/11," but we're obviously not completely safe because people still plot against us. "It's a mistake to believe there is no threat aginst the United States."

Walid Phares on MSNBC this morning: Biggest attack network in history of Al Qaeda - number of jihadists has grown from 1 shoe bomber to 7 in London attacks to at least 21, with base in UK. This would have required a support network of over 100, perhaps 150. AQ leaders have been threatening attacks in their statements for months, indicating their involvement in planning and execution.

Evan Kohlmann on MSNBC: AQ training camps near Pak-Afghan border used for 7/7 bombers. This plot "smacks of Al Qaeda through and through," due to the number of people involved and the sophistication of the explosives. Two kinds of Al Qaeda splinter groups: "wannabes" and actual affiliates (official or unofficial) - one of the latter announced alliance with Al Qaeda last week (see my post on the Egyptian Islamic Group, aka Gamaa Islamiya).

Magnus Ranstorp is quoted by MSNBC that this “could very well have been an attempt at ’the Big One.”’

Lorenzo Vidino reminded me of this story from London a few months ago: "Abu Hamza fanatics are urging fresh suicide attacks on passenger jets, using mini-bombs in pens and disposable cameras. The call is aired on an website run by supporters of the jailed hook-handed cleric. It recommends the use of a high-powered explosive dubbed Mother of Satan, which is of the same type used by the July 7 bombers.

See Bill Roggio's post on the use of technology to reduce the risk of attacks, including at airports.

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