Note on the UN Security Council Resolution Regarding Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

By Walid Phares

The current consensus within the United Nations Security Council on the resolution to address the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is the result of a review of four positions and the selection of the middle way between all the latter:

Hezbollah: Yes to a cease fire, and only cease fire, leaving open the question of disengagement. Hezbollah, Iran and Syria want to stop the Israeli campaign, rearm and reorganize; but also concentrate their pressure on the Lebanese Government to crumble it and replace it with a pro-Hezbollah cabinet.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora

Seniora Lebanese Government: (The so-called 7 points plan): Yes to a cease fire with measures on the ground that would be considered as a disengagement. Yes in principle to the idea of a multinational role without many details nor a discussion of Hezbollah's arms.

The French position: Yes to a cease fire, a disengagement plan and the principle of a multinational force to be discussed in details later.

The American position: Yes to a disengagement plan based on the formation of a multinational force which would secure a cease fire, and remove Hezbollah's weapons.

The Israeli position: Yes to a resolution that would call for disarming Hezbollah, forming a powerful multinational force and as a result of it a long term cease fire

Other drafts by Lebanese NGOs have also been submitted to the UNSC as well.

It seems that the French position has obtained the most likely consensus. But if this the case, then another UNSCR may well be discussed and voted after the French influenced resolution which concentrates on "ceasing hostilities."

After exchange of analysis with leaders from the International Lebanese Committee for UNSCR 1559, Members of Parliament in Lebanon, Lebanese NGOs in Beirut and Lebanese Lobby sources in Washington and Brussels this evening, a consensus was made on the following projections:

a. Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, will most likely oppose this resolution on the ground of "rejecting all plans that doesn't include an unconditional withdrawal by Israeli forces behind the blue line."

b. A rejection by Hezbollah, Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Lahoud, their local allies as well as Damascus and Tehran of the formation and the deployment of a Multinational force, other than the UNIFIL, deployed in the region since 1978, with no deterrence mission. "Either the UNIFIL or nothing," said pro-Syrian politician Nabih Berri last week.

c. It is unlikely that the current Seniora cabinet would uprise against Hezbollah at this stage and eject the organization's ministers from the Government. The Seniora Government is expected to stagnate in status quo.

d. Egypt and Saudi Arabia will attempt to convince Bashar Assad to accept the principle of the resolution, but without major results for now.

Walid Phares, Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting Fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy, author of "Future Jihad"

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