Recovered From "Lebanon Trauma," Israel Decides to Cleanse Lebanon
By Zeyno Baran
Israel's Security Cabinet voted today to send 30,000 ground troops deeper into Lebanon, up to the Litani River, which is about 18 miles from the border. This is a clear indication that Israel has finally gotten over its "Lebanon trauma”, their psychological reaction to their 18-year long occupation of southern Lebanon following their invasion of this country in 1982. Today’s decision was reached after many hours of discussions, but with a clear resolution that the area has to be cleansed from Hizbollah. There will be many lives lost on both sides, but this is, as I have been told over and over again this week in Israel, an existential battle for Israel--one it cannot afford to lose.
Israeli analysts and military leaders believe that Hizbollah’s leader Nasrallah has made a severe strategic mistake by kidnapping the Israelis soldiers in July (in fact, he said so himself). Nasrallah seems to have calculated that the Israeli response would be limited, partly because of its new and inexperienced government. Instead, Israel destroyed most of Hizbollah’s weaponry through its superior air force, and despite initial hesitation, they have finally come around to responding with their ground troops. While Israel has so far been losing the informational war, it has finally begun to tell its side of the story; if it manages to widely circulate the footage of Hizbollah members shooting rockets from their living rooms and demonstrate how houses have been widely used as safehouses, it will be in a much better place to explain why so many civilians have been killed in Lebanon.
It is without doubt that Syria and Iran have been backing Hizbollah militarily and financially—“billions of dollars of investment” as one source estimated—and if Hizbollah wins this war, or is perceived to have destroyed Israel's deterrence capability, Israel will never be safe. From Hamas to the Iranians, everyone is watching to see how this war will unfold. As one Israeli analyst put it, "this is Israel's first war with the Islamists” and its enemy Hizbollah is a unique “terror army”, i.e. a terrorist group equipped with unique army weaponry, tactics and training.
Israel cannot win this war alone; the US needs to assist by coming up with concrete plans to deal with both Syria and Iran. As long as Syria is in the game, neither Hizbollah’s nor Iran can be contained. In the long term, even after there is a Lebanon force in the country’s south, Syria will still be able to re-supply Hizbollah and thus undermine future stability there as long as it is left intact.
To understand the threat coming from Iran, and the urgency of developing a comprehensive strategy, Bernard Lewis's article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal entitled “August 22” is a must read.