Counterterrorism Blog

The past week witnessed one of the most significant recent developments related to the global war on terror -- a development that garnered surprisingly little attention from the media and analysts. As Pakistan's Dawn newspaper explains, the Pakistani government has entered into a peace agreement with the Taliban insurgency that essentially cedes authority in the North Waziristan tribal region to the Taliban and al-Qaeda:

Militants in the restive North Waziristan tribal region on Tuesday signed a peace agreement, pledging to halt cross-border movement and stop attacks on government installations and security forces. “There shall be no cross-border movement for militant activity in neighbouring Afghanistan,” read a clause of the three-page agreement signed by seven militants on behalf of the Taliban shura (advisory council). On its part, the government pledged not to undertake any ground or air operation against the militants and resolve the issue through local customs and traditions.

The importance of this agreement cannot be overstated. My colleague Bill Roggio, who is currently providing the best analysis of this peace deal available on the Internet, today addressed the strategic implications: "With the threat of the Pakistani Army removed in North and South Waziristan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda can now consolidate power and focus their efforts on attacking coalition forces in Afghanistan, as well as expand further into the greater North West Frontier Province." Moreover, with this geographic base to operate from, we may see greater coordination from al-Qaeda's central leadership -- something that the transatlantic air plot shows us they had already been moving toward.

One critical aspect of this peace deal is that foreign militants are allowed to reside in the Waziristan region as long as they vow to “keep the peace” there. Here, keeping the peace is, in practice, defined in relation to attacks on the Pakistani military: the military will not be monitoring the militants' activities. Thus, planning and training for terrorist attacks against the West -- and even bolstering the Taliban insurgency's fighting in Afghanistan -- may not capture Pakistan's attention as a violation of the treaty. (Although the agreement says that "[t]here shall be no cross-border movement for militant activity in neighbouring Afghanistan," that provision appears to be wishful thinking: it seems exceedingly likely that such activities will escalate rather than abate.)

Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has proclaimed that the U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan won't be allowed into the tribal areas covered by this peace deal: "On our side of the border there will be a total uprising if a foreigner enters that area. It's not possible at all, we will never allow any foreigners into that area. It's against the culture of the people there."

Putting into context why this is a matter of great concern, CNN's Henry Schuster explains that Pakistan has become al-Qaeda's new "center of gravity":

Five years after 9/11, Pakistan appears to have replaced Afghanistan as the group's center of gravity. Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are widely believed to be in the more remote parts of this country. Two of the London subway bombers planned and trained for their mission here. And al Qaeda's production company, As Sahab, also apparently does much of its work in Pakistan.

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have seemingly won a major victory with this peace deal. Surely this development deserves more attention than the near-total silence coming from the media.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.